APPLIED STATISTIC’S

Activity #2

DECEMBER 28, 2020

NAME: MUHAMMAD AMMAD KHAN
Sap #20085
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Q1: What is the probability of getting the 1st six on the 4th
roll using a six-sided die?
Answer:
To get a Six on the 4th roll, the first three rolls must be any
other number except a 6; hence, the probability is P(not 6,
not 6, not6,
6) is

=5/6*5/6*5/6*1/6
Now by using the formula you get the same
results: P(n) = p(1 − p)n − 1
= 1/6 (1 – 1/ 6) 3
= = 1/6 (5/ 6)3
= 1/6 (0.83)3
= 1/6 (0.578)
=0.0963
=9.63%
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Q2: 15% of all cars passing along a certain road are blue.
What is the probability that the 7th car will be the first blue
car that you see passing along the road?

Answer:

Let p = 0.15 and n

= 7. P(n) = p(1 −
p)n − 1
P(7)= (0.15)(1 − 0.15)7 − 1
= (0.15)(0.85)3 ≈ 0.0921 ≈ 9.2%

There is a 9.2% probability that the 7th car seen will be the
first blue to car to pass.
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Q3: 4% of the population in small town work as a teacher.

(a) What is the probability that the 10th person you encounter
in this town is a teacher? (b) Calculate the mean, variance
and standard deviation?
Answer:
(a)
Let p = 0.04 and n
= 10. P(n) = p(1 −
p)n − 1
P(10)= (0.04)(1 − 0.04)10 − 1
P(10) = (0.04)(0.96)9 ≈ 0.027 ≈ 2.77%
There is a 2.77% probability that the 10th person
to be encountered with will be a teacher.
(b)
Mean:
μ=n·p
μ = 10 · 0.04
μ = 0.4
Variance
𝛔2 = n · p · q
𝛔2 = 10 · 0.04 ·0.96
𝛔2 = 0.384
Standard Deviation:
_ σ=√n·p·q
_ σ = √ 0.384 σ = 0.619 , σ = 0.620.
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Q4: 2% of all tires produced by the company xyz has a

defect. A random sample of 100 tires is tested for quality
assurance.
(a) What is the probability that the 8th tire selected has a defect?
(b) What is the probability that the first defect is identified
among the first 5 samples?
(c) What is the probability that the first defect is detected
among the first 10 samples? (d) How many tires would you
expect to test until you find the first defective one?

Answer:
(a)
Let p = 0.02 and n
= 8. P(n) = p(1 −
p)n − 1
P(8)= (0.02)(1 − 0.98)8 − 1
P(8) = (0.02)(0.98)7 ≈ 0.0173 ≈ 1.73%
There is a 1.73% probability that the 8th tire selected has a
defect.

(b)
Let p = 0.02 and n
= 5. P(n) = p(1 −
p)n − 1
P(5) = (0.02)(1 − 0.98)5 − 1
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P(5) = (0.02)(0.98)4 ≈ 0.0184 ≈ 1.84%

There is a 1.84% probability that the defect is identified
among the first 5 samples.

c)
Let p = 0.02 and n
= 10. P(n) = p(1 −
p)n − 1
P(10) = (0.02)(1 − 0.98)10 − 1
P(10) = (0.02)(0.98)9 ≈ 0.0167 ≈ 1.67%
There is a 1.84% probability that the defect is identified
among the first 10 samples.

(d)
The number of components that we would expect to test until
we find the first defective one is the mean,
μ=1/p = 1/.02= 50
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Q5: Let’s say you are a cashier at Metro. It is 4:30 pm and

your shift ends at 5:00pm. The store policy is to close your
checkout line 15 minutes before your shift ends (in this case
4:45pm) so you can finish checking-out the customers
already in your line and leaves on-time. By examining
overhead customers, store data indicates that between
4:30pm and 4:45pm each weekday, an average of 10
customers enter any given checkout line.
(A). what is the probability that exactly 7 customers enter
your line between 4:30 and 4:45?
(B). what is the probability that more than 10 people
arrives? (Which means you will probably be on shift
later than 5:00pm!)
Answers:
(A). E(X)=Expected value= μ =λ

X= 7 , λ= μ= 10 , e =2.7183
P(x)= λx e- λ
x!

P(7)= 107 (2.7183)- 10

7!

P(7)=0.9 = 9%

(B). X= 10 , λ= μ= 10 , e =2.7183

P(x)= λx e- λ
x!
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1-P(10)= 1-(1010 (2.7183)- 10 )

10!

1-P(10)=1-0.583 = 0.417 = 41.7%

Q6: A bank is interested in studying the number of people

who use ATM located outside its office late at night. On
average, 1.6 customers walk up to the ATM during any 10
minutes interval between 9pm and midnight.
(A). what is lambda for this problem?
(B). what is the probability of exactly 3 customers using the
ATM during any 10 minutes interval?

Answer:
(A).
λ= no. of occurrence / Specified interval
1.6 customer per 10

minutes, so. λ= μ= 1.6

(B).

X= 3 , λ= μ= 1.6 , e =2.7183

P(x)= λx e- λ
x!

P(3)= (1.63 (2.7183)- 1.6 ) ,

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3!

P(3)=0.139 = 13.9%

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