Month Actual Sales 3 Mongths-Weighted Moving Average Result

January 10 Weighted Moving Avera

February 12 35
March 13
30
April 16 (B4*3+B3*2+B2)/6 12 1/6
May 19 (B5*3+B4*2+B3)/6 14 1/3 25

June 23 (B6*3+B5*2+B4)/6 17

Axis Title
20
July 26 (B7*3+B6*2+B5)/6 20 1/2
15
August 30 (B8*3+B7*2+B6)/6 23 5/6
September 28 (B9*3+B8*2+B7)/6 27 1/2 10

October 18 (B10*3+B9*2+B8)/6 28 1/3 5

November 16 (B11*3+B10*2+B9)/6 23 1/3
0
December 14 (B12*3+B11*2+B10)/6 18 2/3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
 Weighted Moving Average Forcast for 3 Months
35

30

25
Actual Sales
3 Month Weighted Moving
Axis Title

20
Average
15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month Actual Sales Formula in Excel Result
January 12 Weighted Moving Average Forcast for 3 Mon
February 14 25
March 16
April 15 (B4*3+B3*2+B2)/6 14 2/3 20
May 12 (B5*3+B4*2+B3)/6 15 1/6 Actual Sales
June 18 (B6*3+B5*2+B4)/6 13 2/3 15 3 Month Weig

Axis Title
15 Average
July (B7*3+B6*2+B5)/6 15 1/2
17 10
August (B8*3+B7*2+B6)/6 15 1/2
September 16 (B9*3+B8*2+B7)/6 16 1/2
5
October 20 (B10*3+B9*2+B8)/6 16 1/6
November 15 (B11*3+B10*2+B9)/6 18 1/6
0
December 12 (B12*3+B11*2+B10)/6 16 5/6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Average Forcast for 3 Months

Actual Sales
3 Month Weighted Moving
Average

8 9 10 11 12
Month Actual Sales Formula in Excel Result
January 13 Weighted Moving Average Forcast for
February 15 20
March 14 18
April 18 (B4*3+B3*2+B2)/6 14 1/6 16
May 15 (B5*3+B4*2+B3)/6 16 1/6 14
12 Actual Sales
June 11 (B6*3+B5*2+B4)/6 15 5/6

Axis Title
3 Month Moving
July 10 (B7*3+B6*2+B5)/6 13 1/2 10
8
August 16 (B8*3+B7*2+B6)/6 11 1/6
6
September 13 (B9*3+B8*2+B7)/6 13 1/6
4
October 12 (B10*3+B9*2+B8)/6 13 1/2
2
November 15 (B11*3+B10*2+B9)/6 13
0
December 15 (B12*3+B11*2+B10)/6 13 2/3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Moving Average Forcast for 3 Months

Actual Sales
3 Month Moving Average

9 10 11 12
 Exponential Forcast Exponential Forcast
Month Demand
Alpha = 0.1 Alpha = 0.5 Chart Title
January 37 37.00 37.00 60
February 40 37.00 37.00 50
March 41 37.30 38.50 40
April 37 37.67 39.75 30
May 45 37.60 38.38 20
June 50 38.34 41.69
10
July 43 39.51 45.84
0
August 47 39.86 44.42
September 56 40.57 45.71
October 52 42.11 50.86
November 55 43.10 51.43
Demand Exponential Forcast
December 54 48.60 53.21 Alpha = 0.1
 Chart Title

mand Exponential Forcast Exponential Forcast

Alpha = 0.1 Alpha = 0.5
 Exponential Forcast Exponential Forcast
Month Demand
Alpha = 0.1 Alpha = 0.5 Chart Title
January 40 40 40 70
February 35 40 40 60
March 45 39 1/2 37 1/2 50
April 43 40 41 1/4 40
May 31 40 1/3 42 1/8 30
June 30 39 2/5 36 5/9 20
July 50 38 4/9 33 2/7 10

August 30 39 5/8 41 5/8 0

September 41 38 2/3 35 5/6

October 55 38 8/9 38 2/5
November 45 40 1/2 46 5/7
45 45 6/7 Demand Exponential Forcast
December 60 Alpha = 0.1
 Chart Title

Demand Exponential Forcast Exponential Forcast

Alpha = 0.1 Alpha = 0.5
 Exponential Forcast Exponential Forcast
Month Demand
Alpha = 0.1 Alpha = 0.5 Chart Title
January 50 50 50 60
February 30 50 50 50
March 36 48 40 40
April 25 46 4/5 38
30
May 50 44 5/8 31 1/2
20
June 40 45 1/6 40 3/4
10
July 55 44 5/8 40 3/8
August 35 45 2/3 47 2/3 0

September 53 44 3/5 41 1/3

October 30 45 4/9 47 1/6
November 37 43 8/9 38 3/5
47 3/5 37 4/5 Demand Exponential Forcast
December 55 Alpha = 0.1
 Chart Title

Demand Exponential Forcast Exponential Forcast

Alpha = 0.1 Alpha = 0.5
 Exponential Forcast Exponential Forcast
Month Demand
Alpha = 0.1 Alpha = 0.5 Chart Title
January 180 175.00 175.00 250
February 168 175.50 177.50
200
March 159 174.75 172.75
April 175 173.18 165.88 150

May 190 173.36 170.44 100

June 205 175.02 180.22
50
July 180 178.02 192.61
August 182 178.22 186.30 0
ry ry ch ril ay ne Ju
ly
September 132 178.60 184.15 nua rua ar Ap M Ju
J a
F eb M
October 135 173.94 158.08
November 140 170.04 146.54
184.04 143.27 Demand Exponential Forcast
December 150 Alpha = 0.1
 Chart Title

rc
h ril ay ne Ju
ly st be
r er be
r
be
r
Ap M Ju ugu m tob m m
A pt
e Oc ve ce
Se No De

Demand Exponential Forcast Exponential Forcast

Alpha = 0.1 Alpha = 0.5
 Exponential Forcast Exponential Forcast Absolute Deviation
Month Demand
Alpha = 0.1 Alpha = 0.5 with Alpha = 0.1

January 37 37 37 0
February 40 37 37 3
March 41 37 2/7 38 1/2 3 5/7
April 37 37 2/3 39 3/4 2/3
May 45 37 3/5 38 3/8 7 2/5
June 50 38 1/3 41 2/3 11 2/3
July 43 39 1/2 45 5/6 3 1/2
August 47 39 6/7 44 3/7 7 1/7
September 56 40 4/7 45 5/7 15 3/7
October 52 42 1/9 50 6/7 9 8/9
November 55 43 1/9 51 3/7 11 8/9
December 54 48 3/5 53 2/9 5 2/5
Sum of Abs Deviation = 79.67
MAD = 6.64
Absolute Deviation
with Alpha = 0.5

0
3
2 1/2
2 3/4
6 5/8
8 1/3
2 5/6
2 4/7
10 2/7
1 1/7
3 4/7
7/9
44.40
3.70
 Exponential Forcast Exponential Forcast Absolute Deviation
Month Demand
Alpha = 0.1 Alpha = 0.5 with Alpha = 0.1

January 40 40 40 0
February 35 40 40 5
March 45 39 1/2 37 1/2 5 1/2
April 43 40 41 1/4 3
May 31 40 1/3 42 1/8 9 1/3
June 30 39 2/5 36 5/9 9 2/5
July 50 38 4/9 33 2/7 11 5/9
August 30 39 5/8 41 5/8 9 5/8
September 41 38 2/3 35 5/6 2 1/3
October 55 38 8/9 38 2/5 16 1/9
November 45 40 1/2 46 5/7 4 1/2
December 60 45 45 6/7 15
Sum of Abs Deviation = 91.29
MAD = 7.61
Absolute Deviation
with Alpha = 0.5

0
5
7 1/2
1 3/4
11 1/8
6 5/9
16 5/7
11 5/8
5 1/6
16 3/5
1 5/7
14 1/7
97.92
8.16
 Exponential Forcast Exponential Forcast Absolute Deviation
Month Demand
Alpha = 0.1 Alpha = 0.5 with Alpha = 0.1
January 50 50 50 0
February 30 50 50 20
March 36 48 40 12
April 25 46 4/5 38 21 4/5
May 50 44 5/8 31 1/2 5 3/8
June 40 45 1/6 40 3/4 5 1/6
July 55 44 5/8 40 3/8 10 3/8
August 35 45 2/3 47 2/3 10 2/3
September 53 44 3/5 41 1/3 8 2/5
October 30 45 4/9 47 1/6 15 4/9
November 37 43 8/9 38 3/5 6 8/9
December 55 47 3/5 37 4/5 7 2/5
Sum of Abs Deviation = 123.51
MAD = 10.29
Absolute Deviation
with Alpha = 0.5
0
20
4
13
18 1/2
3/4
14 5/8
12 2/3
11 2/3
17 1/6
1 3/5
17 1/5
131.18
10.93
 Exponential Forcast Exponential Forcast Absolute Deviation
Demand
Month Alpha = 0.1 Alpha = 0.5 with Alpha = 0.1
(B)
(C) (D E = abs (B-C)

January 37 37 37 0
February 40 37 37 3
March 41 37 2/7 38 1/2 3 5/7
April 37 37 2/3 39 3/4 2/3
May 45 37 3/5 38 3/8 7 2/5
June 50 38 1/3 41 2/3 11 2/3
July 43 39 1/2 45 5/6 3 1/2
August 47 39 6/7 44 3/7 7 1/7
September 56 40 4/7 45 5/7 15 3/7
October 52 42 1/9 50 6/7 9 8/9
November 55 43 1/9 51 3/7 11 8/9
December 54 48 3/5 53 2/9 5 2/5
Sum of Abs Deviation = 79.67
MAD = Sum of Abs Dev/12 = 6.64
Absolute Deviation Forecast Error Forecast Error
with Alpha = 0.5 Alpha = 0.1 Alpha = 0.5
F= abs (B-D) G=C-B G=D-B

0 0 0
3 -3 -3
2 1/2 -3 5/7 -2 1/2
2 3/4 2/3 2 3/4
6 5/8 -7 2/5 -6 5/8
8 1/3 -11 2/3 -8 1/3
2 5/6 -3 1/2 2 5/6
2 4/7 -7 1/7 -2 4/7
10 2/7 -15 3/7 -10 2/7
1 1/7 -9 8/9 -1 1/7
3 4/7 -11 8/9 -3 4/7
7/9 -5 2/5 - 7/9
44.40 -78.33 -33.21 =Sum of Forcast Errors
3.70 -6.53 -2.77 =Bias =Sum of Forcast Erros /12
 Exponential Forcast Exponential Forcast Absolute Deviation
Month Demand Alpha = 0.1 Alpha = 0.5 with Alpha = 0.1
(B)
(C) (D E = abs (B-C)

January 40 40 40 0
February 35 40 40 5
March 45 39 1/2 37 1/2 5 1/2
April 43 40 41 1/4 3
May 31 40 1/3 42 1/8 9 1/3
June 30 39 2/5 36 5/9 9 2/5
July 50 38 4/9 33 2/7 11 5/9
August 30 39 5/8 41 5/8 9 5/8
September 41 38 2/3 35 5/6 2 1/3
October 55 38 8/9 38 2/5 16 1/9
November 45 40 1/2 46 5/7 4 1/2
December 60 45 45 6/7 15
Sum of Abs Deviation = 91.29
MAD = Sum of Abs Dev/12 = 7.61
Absolute Deviation Forecast Error Forecast Error
with Alpha = 0.5 Alpha = 0.1 Alpha = 0.5
F= abs (B-D) G=C-B G=D-B

0 0 0
5 5 5
7 1/2 -5 1/2 -7 1/2
1 3/4 -3 -1 3/4
11 1/8 9 1/3 11 1/8
6 5/9 9 2/5 6 5/9
16 5/7 -11 5/9 -16 5/7
11 5/8 9 5/8 11 5/8
5 1/6 -2 1/3 -5 1/6
16 3/5 -16 1/9 -16 3/5
1 5/7 -4 1/2 1 5/7
14 1/7 -15 -14 1/7
97.92 -24.54 -25.85 =Sum of Forcast Errors
8.16 -2.04 -2.15 =Bias =Sum of Forcast Erros /12
 Exponential Forcast Exponential Forcast Absolute Deviation
Demand
Month Alpha = 0.1 Alpha = 0.5 with Alpha = 0.1
(B) (C) (D E = abs (B-C)
January 50 50 50 0
February 30 50 50 20
March 36 48 40 12
April 25 46 4/5 38 21 4/5
May 50 44 5/8 31 1/2 5 3/8
June 40 45 1/6 40 3/4 5 1/6
July 55 44 5/8 40 3/8 10 3/8
August 35 45 2/3 47 2/3 10 2/3
September 53 44 3/5 41 1/3 8 2/5
October 30 45 4/9 47 1/6 15 4/9
November 37 43 8/9 38 3/5 6 8/9
December 55 47 3/5 37 4/5 7 2/5
Sum of Abs Deviation = 123.51
MAD = Sum of Abs Dev/12 = 10.29
Absolute Deviation Forecast Error Forecast Error Alpha
with Alpha = 0.5 Alpha = 0.1 = 0.5
F= abs (B-D) G=C-B G=D-B
0 0 0
20 20 20
4 12 4
13 21 4/5 13
18 1/2 -5 3/8 -18 1/2
3/4 5 1/6 3/4
14 5/8 -10 3/8 -14 5/8
12 2/3 10 2/3 12 2/3
11 2/3 -8 2/5 -11 2/3
17 1/6 15 4/9 17 1/6
1 3/5 6 8/9 1 3/5
17 1/5 -7 2/5 -17 1/5
131.18 60.47 7.21 =Sum of Forcast Errors
10.93 5.04 0.60 =Bias =Sum of Forcast Erros /12