ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | Published by ICIS | www.icis.

com/energy | 20 Pages

European Spot
Gas Markets

1 MarketsBritain 2
2 News High prices and volatility
3 Secondary data
Trades 19

Section
Section

Section
Belgium 3 hit European gas markets  13 ICE Natural gas futures 18
Netherlands 4 Outlook for 2021: OCM data 18
Germany 5 Turkish power and gas markets 14 Beach assessment 18
Central Europe 6 Daily oil summary 15 Oil market price assessment 18
France 7 National grid daily capacity 18
Spain 8
Italy 9
Turkey 10

NBP DAY-AHEAD MIDPOINT

14 JANUARY 2021
NBP, p/th 64.200
Withdrawal rates may leave
HEREN® MONTHLY INDICES
JANUARY 21
stores under 25% full by March
NBP, p/th 49.207 European storage sites are set to enter the gas One trader explained that record withdrawals
Zeebrugge, p/th 49.181 summer significantly depleted due to high withdrawal over northwest Europe amid low LNG supply and low
incentive, which should add further support to sum- Russian pipeline flows would lead to very low storage
TTF, €/MWh 16.340
mer-delivery contracts at key hubs. levels by the end of the first quarter of 2021, elevating
PEG, €/MWh 16.511 Limited LNG supply to Europe and falling tempera- upside risk for the summer.
NCG, €/MWh 16.345 tures have increased storage withdrawals since the They said the lack of LNG was the main cause of
GASPOOL, €/MWh 16.789 start of January, tightening margins for the rest of the storage withdrawal demand, noting that temperatures
first quarter. haven’t been as dramatically below seasonal norms as
VTP, €/MWh 15.755
Withdrawals between 4-12 January averaged in previous years, such as at the start of 2018.
PSV, €/MWh 16.765 912million cubic metres (mcm)/day, 347mcm above However, another source said withdrawal rate for
the 2016-2020 average daily rate over the same the remainder of winter would hinge on both LNG
HEREN® MONTHLY CUMULATIVE period. As a result, through January so far, European supply and weather conditions, saying: “If Feb comes
INDICES FEBRUARY 21
stocks have dropped almost one percentage point per in at normal temperatures I don’t think [there will be]
NBP, p/th 64.320 day. any concerns, if there is a sustained cold snap then
Zeebrugge, p/th 63.066 If this rate continues then storage levels could sink [storage] could run down quickly”.
TTF, €/MWh 20.998 below 25% of capacity by the end of February and
leave storage significantly depleted by the end of the TTF PROMPT PREMIUM
PEG, €/MWh 21.308
gas winter. Supply tightness has bolstered prompt ❯❯ Page 16
NCG, €/MWh 20.677
GASPOOL, €/MWh 21.284
VTP, €/MWh 20.090
High Asian prices to hinder US LNG to Europe for now
PSV, €/MWh 22.194 Strong East Asia Index (EAX) prices have maintained month+2 product with spot LNG prices across
the incentive for the US to sell LNG into the Asian northeast Asia continuing to surge past multi-year
HEREN® DAILY INDICES
14 JANUARY 2021
market over Europe, but the bullish momentum in highs due to tight supply and cold weather.
global gas spreads could wane in the coming sessions However on 14 January the product fell back to
NBP Within-day, p/th 63.774 with the latest regional weather forecasts hinting at $12.50/MMBtu with the current cold weather con-
NBP D+1, p/th 64.066 milder near-term temperatures. ditions across parts of Asia expected to ease from
Zeebrugge D+1, p/th 56.153 next week. The latest models show that Japan will
EAX VULNERABLE see above-average temperatures for 16-22 January,
TTF D+1, €/MWh 20.856
The EAX March ‘21 contract was assessed at $13.50/ following freezing temperatures for 9-15 January.
PEG D+1, €/MWh 21.062 MMBtu on 13 January, a six-year high for the rolling However, China still expects below- ❯❯ Page 17
NCG D+1, €/MWh 20.287
GASPOOL D+1, €/MWh 20.552
European day-ahead gas prices: day-ahead vs previous day
€/MWh
VTP D+1, €/MWh 19.679
30
PSV D+1, €/MWh 21.940
25

HEREN® DAILY MONTH AHEAD 20

INDICES
14 JANUARY 2021 15
NBP, p/th 62.056
10
Zeebrugge, p/th 55.413
5
TTF, €/MWh 20.990
0
NCG, €/MWh 20.201 NBP Zeebrugge ZTP TTF PEG NCG GASPOOL VTP CZECH GAS PSV Turkish Slovakia PVB
Gas
Source: ICIS

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 1

Markets Back to
contents

BRITAIN NBP PRICE ASSESSMENT

14 JANUARY 2021 p/th

British gas front end Period Bid Offer Diff Data used
Volatility
index

sinks further as EAX Day-ahead

Weekend
64.000
63.175*
64.400
63.675*
-1.250
-2.075
B
B
129.0%
126.1%

premium shrinks
WDNW 63.700* 64.200* -2.500 I 128.8%
BOM 63.750* 64.250* -1.750 T n/a
February '21 62.525* 62.700* -2.825 B 119.1%
March '21 56.250* 56.525* -1.138 I 113.8%
Outlook April '21 47.650* 47.850* -0.650 T 62.3%
Wind output to increase week on week May '21 42.350* 42.550* -0.750 I 58.7%
One additional LNG added to sparse schedule June '21 41.325* 41.525* -0.775 I 55.0%
Asian spot prices waning due to warmer temperatures July '21 40.825* 41.325* -0.275 I < 20 days
Q2 '21 43.775* 43.975* -0.725 S 58.4%
The British gas NBP prompt and curve alike continued to soften Q3 '21 41.325* 41.525* -0.275 S 52.2%
further on Thursday after Wednesday’s near-record plunges, driven Q4 '21 48.925* 49.375* 0.200 I 45.1%
by easing Asian prices and an uncertain weather outlook. Volatility Q1 '22 52.175* 52.625* 0.200 I 42.3%
Q2 '22 39.150* 39.650* 0.900 I 31.5%
appears to have waned as Thursday’s inter-session moves were the
Q3 '22 37.850* 38.350* 0.900 I 32.6%
least severe this week.
Q4 '22 44.250* 44.675* 0.450 I 27.5%
According to ICIS LNG reports, Asian spot price eased earlier Q1 '23 48.700* 49.125* 0.450 I 24.9%
on Thursday as warmer temperatures are expected in Japan over Q2 '23 36.475* 36.975* 0.275 I 27.2%
the next week, leading to the ICIS East Asia Index subsiding for Q3 '23 35.175* 35.675* 0.275 I 28.2%
the first time since late December. These price moves indicate a Q4 '23 42.525* 42.650* -0.013 I < 20 days
slightly more fruitful margin for LNG imports into Britain and the Gas Year 21 44.525* 45.000* 0.550 I 37.8%
rest of Europe on the front end, as soaring Asian LNG prices have Gas Year 22 41.150* 41.625* 0.363 I 25.4%
been drawing large volumes of cargoes away. Year 2022 43.350* 43.825* 0.600 I 32.9%
A revised LNG cargo delivery schedule now has two cargoes Year 2023 40.725* 41.100* 0.238 I < 20 days
Summer 21 42.550* 42.750* -0.500 T 55.0%
expected to dock at British terminals, up from the lone cargo
Winter 21 50.550* 51.000* 0.200 B 43.6%
Wednesday. However, neither of these cargoes are fully confirmed
Summer 22 38.500* 39.000* 0.900 B 32.0%
and they are not set to arrive for over a week, with the first to Winter 22 46.475* 46.900* 0.450 B 26.1%
deliver on 25 January. Expected LNG cargoes into western Europe Summer 23 35.825* 36.325* 0.275 I 27.7%
as a whole rose by four day on day. Winter 23 44.575* 44.700* -0.013 I 25.6%
Weather outlooks in the UK and Europe are currently still Summer 24 35.225* 35.725* 0.275 I 32.3%
uncertain as meteorologist MetDesk states that their models are Winter 24 44.440* 44.935* -0.013 I 23.0%
currently very volatile due to a mixture of cold and warmth factors Summer 25 35.625* 36.125* 0.275 I 33.2%
impacting European weather. Winter 25 44.900* 45.375* -0.013 I 22.3%
Both the EUA carbon and Brent crude benchmarks made
*Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
session-on-session losses. Despite the bearish sentiment, prices
HEREN® NBP DAY-AHEAD INDEX
flattened towards the far curve.
This bearish momentum helped dragged the prompt down, 15 January
January Previous Cumul.
which was already weakening in itself. The British gas grid was
oversupplied consistently throughout the session, despite demand Price, p/th 64.066 67.197 62.047
continuing to be at above seasonal norms. An uptick in wind gen- No. of trades 342 306 3352
eration on Thursday resulted in a 6mcm day-on-day decrease in Volume, m th 34.950 29.760 310.115
power sector demand for gas.
Shippers nominated to withdraw 12mcm from storage which HEREN® NBP WITHIN-DAY INDEX
is a nearly 2mcm lower amount than the previous session and 14 January
LNG sendout nominations increased day on day by nearly 5mcm. January Previous Cumul.
Eugene Poon Price, p/th 63.774 68.300 62.056
No. of trades 112 192 1399
Volume, m th 8.370 15.925 124.035

UK SPARK SPREADS FOR 49.13% FUEL EFFICIENCY 14 JANUARY 2021

NBP Gas price Spark spread Spark Diff (D-1)
Period p/th £/MWh £/MWh £/MWh
Day-ahead 64.066 21.86 155.71 52.80
February '21 62.613 21.36 30.51 -1.29
HEREN CLOSING INDEX
March '21 56.388 19.24 21.34 -1.71
price Volume Number Low High Q2 '21 43.875 14.97 22.28 -0.24
Contract Hub p/th '000 therms of deals trade trade Methodology Q3 '21 41.425 14.13 22.48 0.04

Day-ahead NBP 64.616 4745 42 64.450 65.000

Index Closing Summer 21 42.650 14.55 22.38 -0.10
Window
Winter 21 50.775 17.33 21.84 -1.01
Summer 22 38.750 13.22 19.16 -0.63
Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals,
I – Interpolation/extrapolation Winter 22 46.688 15.93 22.07 0.06
The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment. Summer 23 36.075 12.31 18.85 -0.04

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 2

Markets Back to
contents

BELGIUM ZEEBRUGGE PRICE ASSESSMENT

14 JANUARY 2021 p/th

Exports to Britain Period

Day-ahead
Bid
57.800*
Offer
58.200*
Diff
0.400
Basis
-6.200
Basis diff Data used
1.650 T

surge to meet high Weekend

WDNW
57.425*
57.225*
57.925*
57.725*
0.050
0.300
-5.750
-6.475
2.125
2.800
I
I

British demand
BOM 57.175* 57.675* 0.300 -6.575 2.050 I
February '21 55.325* 55.500* -2.850 -7.200 -0.025 B
March '21 52.300* 52.575* -0.663 -3.950 0.475 B
April '21 47.175* 47.375* -0.175 -0.475 0.475 I
Outlook
Q2 '21 43.800* 44.000* -0.250 0.025 0.475 I
Locational spreads suggest strong Belgian exports to Britain in Q3 '21 43.100* 43.300* -0.250 1.775 0.025 I
the sessions ahead Q4 '21 47.800* 48.250* 1.050 -1.125 0.850 I
Temperatures to remain below average for north Europe in week Q1 '22 49.200* 49.650* 1.050 -2.975 0.850 I
3 Q2 '22 39.725* 40.225* 0.525 0.575 -0.375 I
IUK changes tariffs for February and March capacity Q3 '22 39.275* 39.775* 0.525 1.425 -0.375 I
Gas Year 21 44.000* 44.475* 0.775 -0.525 0.225 I
Prompt gas products at the Belgian Zeebrugge hub reduced their Year 2022 43.450* 43.925* 0.613 0.100 0.013 I
discount to the British NBP on Thursday, as softening Asian prices Summer 21 43.450* 43.650* -0.250 0.900 0.250 B
and a weaker energy mix pressured British prices more than their Winter 21 48.500* 48.950* 1.050 -2.050 0.850 B
Summer 22 39.500* 40.000* 0.525 1.000 -0.375 B
Belgian equivalents.
However, locational spreads kept exports through the Intercon- *Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
nector in the money as below-average temperatures continued to
fuel British gas demand, prompting shippers to import gas from HEREN ZEEBRUGGE DAY-AHEAD INDEX
®

Belgium and the Netherlands. January

This suggests that exports through the Interconnector are likely 15 January Previous Cumul.
to remain high in the sessions ahead. Price, p/th 56.153 58.590 56.788
On Thursday, Belgian flows to Britain were proceeding at a rate No. of trades 35 32 209
of 61mcm/day between 5:00 and 14:00 London time, data from Volume, m th 3.855 3.000 18.165
operator Fluxys showed. This would be the highest since March
2018.
ZTP PRICE ASSESSMENT
On Thursday, the Interconnector operator IUK announced 14 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh
changes in tariffs for transport capacity for February and March.
Period Bid Offer Diff Data used
Short-term capacity for February will increase from 2.0p/th to
Day-ahead 22.100* 22.125* -0.063 B
3.5p/th. This reverses a previous reduction in February tariffs that
February '21 21.150* 21.450* -0.500 B
the operator published in December 2020. In week 1 IUK had an- Q2 '21 16.450* 16.950* -0.263 I
nounced similar changes for capacity purchases with delivery in Summer 21 16.550* 16.675* -0.263 B
January. February monthly costs will stay at 2.0p/th.
For the Belgium-to-Britain route, IUK also increased the monthly Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals,
capacity cost for delivery in March up to 2.0p/th. Previous tariffs for I – Interpolation/extrapolation
The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment.
March monthly capacity were 1.5p/th.
Daily and within-day costs in March will rise to 2.5p/th, up from
2.2p/th. Alice Casagni ZTP - ZEE SPREADS €/MWh
Spread Diff
Day-ahead -0.195 -0.343
February '21 0.001 0.469
Q2 '21 -0.150 -0.263
Summer 21 -0.090 -0.262
*A positive spread represents a higher outright price at the ZTP than at
Zeebrugge

ZTP - TTF SPREADS €/MWh

Spread Diff
Day-ahead 0.738 0.400
February '21 0.250 0.025
Q2 '21 0.100 0.075
Summer 21 0.163 0.076
*A positive spread represents a higher outright price at the ZTP than at
the TTF

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 3

Markets Back to
contents

NETHERLANDS TTF PRICE ASSESSMENT

14 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Bears tighten grip Period Bid Offer Diff Data used

Volatility
index

on shorter-dated Day-ahead
Weekend
WDNW
21.350*
21.000*
20.925*
21.400*
21.500*
21.425*
-0.463
-0.588
-0.500
B
I
I
126.3%
122.1%
126.0%
contracts BOM
February '21
21.050*
21.050
21.250*
21.050
-0.500
-0.525
B
B
n/a
122.8%
March '21 20.000 20.050 -0.488 B 117.6%
Outlook April '21 17.125 17.175 -0.300 T 60.0%
 ixed weather outlook with below-average temperatures
M May '21 16.450 16.500 -0.438 T 50.7%
unlikely to persist June '21 16.150* 16.200* -0.288 I 44.3%
Wind output forecast to rise next week July '21 15.875* 16.375* -0.350 I < 20 Days
LNG cargoes expected 15-24 January Q2 '21 16.575* 16.625* -0.338 I 51.6%
Q3 '21 16.275* 16.325* -0.338 I 48.7%
The Dutch TTF natural gas prompt and near curve lost value Q4 '21 17.600* 17.700* -0.288 I 39.7%
Q1 '22 18.100* 18.200* -0.288 I 37.3%
on Thursday, as milder weather forecasts and easing Asian LNG
Q2 '22 15.325* 15.450* 0.075 I 26.1%
prices weighed on the market. Several contracts have recorded
Q3 '22 15.125* 15.250* 0.075 I 26.4%
heavy losses for the last two sessions amid renewed bearish mo- Q4 '22 16.500* 16.600* 0.138 I 21.8%
mentum but low storage remains a bullish factor. Q1 '23 17.050* 17.200* 0.138 I 20.4%
The latest weather models indicate a mixed outlook for the re- Q2 '23 14.450* 14.950* 0.000 I 16.4%
mainder of the month with warmer weather expected. MetDesk Q3 '23 14.150* 14.650* 0.000 I < 20 Days
forecast temperatures reaching seasonal norms in week 3 after Gas Year 21 16.550* 16.650* -0.100 I 32.2%
below-average temperatures this week. However temperatures Year 2022 16.275* 16.375* 0.000 I 27.5%
are then set to fall below seasonal norms for week 4. Year 2023 15.200* 15.700* -0.025 I 15.4%
A similar pattern is forecast for Dutch wind output, indicating Year 2024 14.975* 15.000* 0.013 B 12.9%
Year 2025 14.525* 15.025* 0.025 I < 20 Days
that gas demand for electricity generation will have some support
Summer 21 16.425 16.475 -0.338 B 50.1%
going into February.
Winter 21 17.850 17.950 -0.288 B 38.5%
As well as periods of milder weather ahead, LNG arrivals Summer 22 15.225 15.350 0.075 B 26.3%
should ease pressure on supply margins this month. Three laden Winter 22 16.775 16.900 0.138 B 21.1%
LNG vessels are scheduled to arrive at Gate Terminal during 15-24 Summer 23 14.300* 14.800* 0.000 S 16.3%
January, according to LNG Edge. Winter 23 15.750* 16.250* 0.000 S 12.0%
LNG sendout has been sluggish this winter with vessels drawn Summer 24 13.900* 14.400* 0.025 I 13.6%
away from Europe to the higher priced Asian market. LNG send- Winter 24 15.350* 15.850* 0.025 I 13.3%
out has been less than 0.5mcm/day between 5:00-14:00 for the Summer 25 13.725* 14.225* 0.025 I 15.7%
last 9 days including 14 January. Winter 25 15.325* 15.825* 0.025 I 16.8%
Falling LNG supply has helped to drive high gas withdrawals
*Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
and there was further incentive to maintain that trend with Day- Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals,
ahead values extending their premium over the front month ses- I – Interpolation/extrapolation
The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment.
sion on session despite weakness across the TTF prompt market.
Dutch storage was 61% full on 13 January, 13 percentage
points below 2019 levels, an indicator of lingering supply tight- HEREN® TTF DAY-AHEAD INDEX
ness. January
Later-dated TTF gas contracts recorded mixed movement dur- 15 January Previous Cumul.
ing the session. Some bearish pressure was provided by the sharp Price, €/MWh 20.856 22.224 20.587
selling pressure from the shorter-dated contracts while EUA car- No. of trades 419 452 3863
bon futures displayed intra-day weakness. Christopher Rene Volume, MWh 957,480 1,098,240 8,927,400

TTF PRICE ASSESSMENT $/MMBTU NBP PRICE ASSESSMENT $/MMBTU

Period Bid Offer Diff Period Bid Offer Diff
Day-ahead 7.599 7.616 -0.173 Day-ahead 8.760 8.815 -0.130
Weekend 7.474 7.652 -0.217 Weekend 8.647 8.716 -0.243
February '21 7.497 7.497 -0.195 February '21 8.560 8.584 -0.346

HEREN CLOSING INDEX

price €/ Volume Number Low High
Contract Hub MWh MWh of deals trade trade Methodology

21.400 21.625 Index Closing

Day-ahead TTF 21.523 93600 45 Window

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 4

Markets Back to
contents

NCG PRICE ASSESSMENT

GERMANY
14 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Prompt and near curve Period

Day-ahead
Bid
20.775
Offer
20.775
Diff
-0.725
Volatility
Data used index
B 126.9%
extend losses as milder Weekend
WDNW
20.400*
20.300*
20.900*
20.800*
-0.850
-0.475
I
I
125.0%
124.2%

weather forecast BOM

February '21
March '21
20.350
20.400
19.550
20.700
20.425
19.625
-0.413
-0.463
-0.438
B
B
B
n/a
127.2%
118.7%
April '21 17.400* 17.450* -0.363 B 54.6%
Outlook May '21 16.900* 16.925* -0.313 I 50.4%
Mild temperatures and high wind output to weigh on prompt June '21 16.875* 16.900* -0.263 I 44.5%
Falling storage levels could provide upside on near curve July '21 16.700* 16.725* -0.313 I < 20 Days
Three vessels expected at Gate terminal Q2 '21 17.050* 17.100* -0.313 I 49.6%
Q3 '21 16.650* 16.700* -0.313 I 49.1%
Q4 '21 17.825* 17.950* -0.288 I 38.8%
Prompt and near curve gas contracts on the German NCG and GASPOOL
Q1 '22 18.075* 18.200* -0.288 I 38.2%
markets fell on Thursday amid expectations of milder temperatures and higher Q2 '22 15.625* 15.750* 0.088 I 25.3%
wind output in week 3. Q3 '22 15.325* 15.450* 0.088 I 25.9%
Forecasts from MetDesk anticipate that temperatures will remain below Q4 '22 16.650* 16.800* 0.150 I 24.0%
seasonal average for the rest of this week before warming to around 1°C Q1 '23 17.200* 17.350* 0.150 I 23.2%
above the norm in week 3. Q2 '23 14.775* 15.275* 0.025 I 15.7%
Q3 '23 14.475* 14.975* 0.025 I < 20 Days
Milder weather is likely to reduce demand as domestic heating require-
Year 2022 16.425* 16.550* 0.000 I 27.5%
ments fall. Year 2023 15.700* 15.775* 0.000 B 15.2%
Additionally, above-average wind output of around 22GW daily is forecast Year 2024 15.325 15.425 0.050 B < 20 Days
for next week, which will likely reduce reliance on gas-powered generation, Summer 21 16.850 16.900 -0.313 B 49.4%
pressuring prompt contracts. Winter 21 17.950 18.075 -0.288 B 38.4%
Asian spot LNG prices fell for the first time since 24 December, weighing Summer 22 15.475 15.600 0.088 B 25.7%
Winter 22 16.925 17.075 0.150 B 23.6%
on European markets. Summer 23 14.625* 15.125* 0.025 S 15.8%
In recent weeks, record-high Asian prices have diverted laden vessels away Winter 23 16.000* 16.475* 0.013 S 12.6%
from Europe, amounting to fears over supply in coming months. Summer 24 14.275* 14.750* 0.025 I 13.3%
Currently, three laden vessels are expected to arrive at the Gate terminal in Winter 24 15.850* 16.325* 0.025 I 12.9%
the Netherlands by 24 January, according to LNG Edge. Summer 25 14.125* 14.625* 0.025 I 15.2%
Winter 25 15.725* 16.225* 0.025 I 16.4%
An additional 297mcm of gas was withdrawn from German storage on
*Indicative bid/offers
13 January. This brings storage levels to 62% full, which is 32% lower than
last year. GASPOOL PRICE ASSESSMENT
H-gas flows from Germany to the Netherlands were expected to be down 14 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh
by 45% to 16mcm on Thursday according to ICIS data. This was likely due to Volatility
the Dutch system being long earlier in the day, necessitating three balancing Period Bid Offer Diff Data used Index
Day-ahead 20.850* 20.875* -0.613 B 124.9%
actions by Dutch grid operator GTS.
Weekend 20.500* 20.975* -0.738 I 120.7%
Carbon futures prices closed the day up, at €33.6/tCO2e, supporting con- WDNW 20.400* 20.875* -0.275 I 126.9%
tracts further out on the curve. Daisy Jennings-Gray BOM 20.375* 20.850* -0.275 B n/a
February '21 20.375* 20.425* -0.363 B 122.7%
March '21 19.525* 19.625* -0.513 S 115.2%
HEREN® NCG DAY-AHEAD INDEX April '21 17.800* 17.900* -0.375 I 51.6%
May '21 16.425* 16.500* -0.375 I 50.5%
January June '21 16.250* 16.325* -0.375 I 49.5%
15 January Previous Cumul.
July '21 16.400* 16.500* -0.375 I < 20 Days
Price, €/MWh 20.287 21.674 20.134 Q2 '21 16.825* 16.900* -0.375 I 50.1%
No. of trades 134 138 1334 Q3 '21 16.575* 16.650* -0.375 I 50.1%
Q4 '21 17.825* 17.950* -0.288 I 38.8%
Volume, MWh 314,160 301,680 3,138,960
Q1 '22 18.075* 18.200* -0.288 I 38.2%
Q2 '22 15.625* 15.750* 0.088 I 25.3%
Q3 '22 15.325* 15.450* 0.088 I 25.9%
Data used key: B – bid/offer, Q4 '22 16.650* 16.800* 0.150 I 24.0%
HEREN® GASPOOL DAY-AHEAD INDEX
T – Transaction, S – Spread, Q1 '23 17.200* 17.350* 0.150 I 23.2%
F – Fundamentals, January
Q2 '23 14.775* 15.275* 0.025 I 15.7%
I – Interpolation/extrapolation 15 January Previous Cumul.
Q3 '23 14.475* 14.975* 0.025 I < 20 Days
Price, €/MWh 20.552 21.711 20.223 Year 2022 16.425* 16.550* 0.000 I 27.5%
The key codes represent the
primary data type used to make No. of trades 136 114 1150 Year 2023 15.700* 15.775* 0.000 B 15.2%
the assessment. Volume, MWh 341,040 268,920 2,834,040 Year 2024 15.325 15.425 0.050 B < 20 Days
Summer 21 16.700* 16.775* -0.375 S 50.1%
Winter 21 17.950 18.075 -0.288 B 38.4%
GERMAN SPARK SPREADS 14 JANUARY 2021 Summer 22 15.475 15.600 0.088 B 25.7%
Winter 22 16.925 17.075 0.150 B 23.6%
TTF Spark spread Spark Diff (D-1)
Summer 23 14.625* 15.125* 0.025 S 15.8%
Period €/MWh €/MWh €/MWh
Winter 23 16.000* 16.475* 0.013 S 12.6%
Day-ahead 20.86 36.24 11.93 Summer 24 14.275* 14.750* 0.025 I 13.3%
February '21 21.05 12.05 -0.19 Winter 24 15.850* 16.325* 0.025 I 12.9%
Summer 25 14.125* 14.625* 0.025 I 15.2%
Q2 '21 16.60 11.11 0.33
Winter 25 15.725* 16.225* 0.025 I 16.4%
Year 2022 16.33 17.07 0.17 *Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 5

Markets Back to
contents

CENTRAL EUROPE VTP PRICE ASSESSMENT

14 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Austria and nearby Period

Day-ahead
Bid
20.025*
Offer
20.050*
Diff
-1.563
Data used
I

markets see second day BOM

February '21
19.750
19.100
20.150
19.125
-0.450
-0.313
B
B

of prompt losses March '21

April '21
18.250
17.500
18.450
17.925
-0.475
-0.513
B
B
Q2 '21 17.275 17.325 -0.413 B
Outlook
 igh rainfall expected in Austria into week 4
H Q3 '21 17.025* 17.125* -0.338 I
Increased hydro generation to reduce gas-for-power demand Year 2022 16.675* 16.875* -0.050 S
Summer 21 17.150 17.225 -0.375 B
Central and east European OTC natural gas markets saw a second consecu- Winter 21 17.875 18.125 -0.275 B
tive day of prompt losses on Thursday, as the market continued to correct af- Summer 22 15.700* 16.175* -0.050 I
ter prices spiked on Tuesday. *Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
On Austria’s VTP market, the regional reference, the Day-ahead product
first traded at €20.450/MWh, down by €1.150/MWh on Wednesday’s as-
sessed price. HEREN® VTP DAY-AHEAD INDEX
The contract went on to tread a downward path through the morning, January
testing an intra-day low of €19.100/MWh shortly after 12:30 Vienna time. 15 January Previous Cumul.
Through the afternoon the contract regained some lost ground but none- Price, €/MWh 19.679 20.560 19.159
theless ended the session lower than it had begun. No. of trades 37 36 364
Other Austrian prompt and near-curve contracts also saw losses, in line Volume, MWh 66,480 84,360 686,280
with a trend common across other European gas markets, with bearish senti-
ment is coming from softening LNG prices in Asia and an uncertain weather
outlook. CZECH REPUBLIC PRICE ASSESSMENT
The heavy losses seen on the Austrian Day-ahead contract are likely tied to 14 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh
expectations of high levels of rainfall over the coming fortnight. Period Bid Offer Diff Data used
Forecaster Metdesk sees significantly above-average precipitation in the Day-ahead 20.200* 20.450* -0.163 S
alps through to week 4, which will support hydroelectric power generation BOM 19.725* 20.200* -0.525 I
and limit gas-for-power demand, removing that as a support for prompt con- February '21 19.650 19.850 -0.675 B
tracts. March '21 19.225* 19.425* -0.425 S
In terms of temperature the outlook is for significantly below-average April '21 18.050* 18.550* -0.400 I
temperatures expected over the weekend, with a recovery expected in week Q2 '21 17.225* 17.400* -0.400 I
3. Ed Martin
Q3 '21 16.975* 17.150* -0.400 I
Year 2022 16.650* 16.875* 0.000 S
UAVTP GAS PRICE ASSESSMENT 14 JANUARY 2021
Summer 21 17.100* 17.275* -0.400 S
UAH/Kscm €/MWh Winter 21 17.975* 18.325* -0.313 S
*Indicative bid/offers
Period Bid Offer Diff Data used Midpoint Diff
February '21 6,965.000* 7,115.000* 0.000 I 19.426 -0.009 SLOVAKIA PRICE ASSESSMENT
14 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh
Period Bid Offer Diff Data used
UA-BORDER GAS PRICE ASSESSMENT 14 JANUARY 2021
Day-ahead 19.700* 20.175* -1.563 I
UAH/Kscm €/MWh BOM 20.075* 20.550* -0.450 I
Period Bid Offer Diff Data used Midpoint Diff February '21 19.225* 19.725* -0.313 I

February '21 7,260.000* 7,410.000* 0.000 I 20.240 -0.010

MGP PRICE ASSESSMENT

14 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh
Period Bid Offer Diff Data used
Day-ahead 18.075* 18.550* -1.563 I

Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals,

I – Interpolation/extrapolation
The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment.

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 6

Markets Back to
contents

FRANCE PEG PRICE ASSESSMENT

14 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Bearish weather outlook Period

Day-ahead
Bid
21.775*
Offer
21.850*
Diff
-0.313
Data used
B

pressures PEG contracts BOM

February '21
21.250*
21.250*
21.625*
21.325*
-0.638
-0.563
S
S
March '21 20.250* 20.450* -0.575 S
Outlook April '21 17.250* 17.375* -0.250 S
Temperatures moving closer to average in week 3 and week 4
Q2 '21 16.725* 16.925* -0.338 I
High wind generation expected in the coming weeks
Q3 '21 16.325* 16.425* -0.338 I
LNG supply to remain low in January
Q4 '21 17.650* 17.800* -0.313 B
French natural gas contracts shed value on Thursday, persisting on the Year 2022 16.275* 16.525* -0.063 I
downward trend started on Wednesday as they were pressured by a long Summer 21 16.525* 16.675* -0.338 I
system and a bearish weather outlook. Winter 21 17.750* 17.875* -0.350 S
Weather service MetDesk indicated on its Thursday’s forecast that tem- Summer 22 15.250* 15.550* 0.075 S
peratures are likely to turn milder next week, averaging from 0.5-1.5°C above *Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
seasonal levels, while week 4 should see temperatures closer to seasonal aver-
age. HEREN® PEG DAY-AHEAD INDEX
The meteorologist also forecast high wind generation for much of week 3 January
and week 4, when outturn should ramp up well above seasonal levels reaching 15 January Previous Cumul.
a daily average of 6.7GW and 6.5GW. Price, €/MWh 21.062 22.182 20.779
Data from transmission system operators GRTgaz and Terega showed that No. of trades 148 186 1148
demand should average 221mcm/day for the rest of the week, down from Volume, MWh 170,740 222,472 1,647,022
248mcm/day in the previous week. This compares with an average gas con-
sumption of 190mcm/day recorded on 4-10 January last year.
Meanwhile, gas storage fullness remains lower than in past years and it
is likely to boost injections-related demand during the summer months. On
Wednesday gas storage capacity in France was 55% full, 21 percentage points
lower than the same day last year and 6 points lower than in 2019.
LNG supply is also expected to be extremely low in January, as LNG Edge
indicated that only three more laden vessels are awaited to deliver into France
until the end of the month.
Port data confirmed that a LNG cargo from Nigeria will berth at the
Montoir terminal on 21 January, while algorithmic data indicated a vessel
from Russia and one from Sabine Pass in the US should arrive on 22 and 26
January. This would bring to five the total number of cargoes delivering this
month, down from 13 arrived last month and 18 recorded on January last year.
Andrea Battaglia

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 7

Markets Back to
contents

SPAIN PVB PRICE ASSESSMENT

14 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

PVB prices fall with Period

Day-ahead
Bid
27.900*
Offer
28.000*
Diff
-1.400
Data used
B

consumption forecast, February '21

March '21
25.375*
21.300*
25.875*
21.800*
-0.125
-0.325
I
I

but supply also low Q2 '21

Q3 '21
17.450*
17.150*
17.925*
17.625*
-0.338
-0.338
I
I
Year 2022 17.275* 17.700* 0.000 I
Outlook ❯❯ Trades
 aily wind power generation is set to rise from 7.8GW today to 8.4GW on
D
15 January, according to MetDesk Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals,
This could erode gas consumption from the power sector further this week I – Interpolation/extrapolation
The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment.
Weather forecast uncertainty has risen, but higher winds are expected next
week

Spain’s Day-ahead contract price slipped by €1.40/MWh on 14 January to

€27.95/MWh as other contracts also dipped, linked to lower gas demand for
the end of the week and falling prices across Europe’s energy hubs.
Prices fell during the day’s trading with a Day-ahead trade in the morning
seen at €29.00/MWh.
This was despite restricted flows from Algeria, with sent volumes dropping
on a daily basis since 11 January, according to ICIS data. Overall storage vol-
umes also dropped to 32% by 13 January and show no sign of rising, for now.
Spain demand for LNG and lower storage levels have also resulted in the
cancellation of an LNG reload from Sagunto on 22 January, Enagas shipping
timetables showed.
Spanish premiums previously rose over the last week, compared with the
UK and France gas markets, due to the need to attract more gas and LNG
cargoes. But volatility has recently seen premiums slip.
The spread between the NBP and PVB Day-ahead contract widened signifi-
cantly to €29.70/MWh by 7 January, but has since fallen to €3.257/MWh. The
UK has not received an LNG cargo from Qatar for 70 days, the longest gap in
deliveries for at least ten years, according to ship-tracking data from ICIS LNG
Edge on 13 January, but a Spanish premium has helped attract cargoes from
Nigeria, the US and Qatar.
The share of gas in the power mix fell from 14.7% to 10% between 13-14
January. Clare Pennington

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 8

Markets Back to
contents

PSV PRICE ASSESSMENT ITALY

14 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Period Bid Offer Diff Data used

Volatility
index Curve extends
losses on weak
Day-ahead 22.450 22.450 -0.350 B 146.9%
BOM 21.750* 21.800* -0.838 I n/a

energy complex
February '21 21.350* 21.400* -0.513 B 117.9%
March '21 20.150* 20.375* -0.450 B 113.8%
April '21 18.075* 18.525* -0.400 S < 20 Days
Q2 '21 17.800* 17.950* -0.413 I 49.7% Outlook
Q3 '21 17.300* 17.400* -0.513 S 43.4% T emperatures below-the-norm to persist for the
Q4 '21 18.600* 18.875* -0.363 B 39.9% next five days
Q1 '22 18.800* 19.025* -0.363 I < 20 Days Storage sendout to remain strong
Gas Year 21 17.525* 17.775* -0.138 I 30.1% Summer-winter spread narrows on fast-

Year 2022 17.100* 17.450* -0.025 B 26.3% depleting stocks
Year 2023 16.200* 16.700* -0.025 I < 20 Days
Weakness in the wider energy complex pres-
Summer 21 17.550* 17.675* -0.463 B 46.3%
sured the Italian natural gas PSV curve on Thurs-
Winter 21 18.700* 18.950* -0.363 B 37.4%
day, which posted losses for the second session in
Summer 22 16.325* 16.600* 0.075 B 24.0%
a row erasing the strong gains posted in the first
*Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
part of the week.
Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals, I – Interpolation/extrapolation. The key Increasing LNG sendout into the grid capped
codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment. imports from the northwest of Europe via Tran-
sitgas, which dropped to 6.2mcm at 16:00 Rome
HEREN® PSV DAY-AHEAD INDEX time, Italian grid operator SNAM Rete Gas report
January showed. This was around 10mcm below the previ-
15 January Previous Cumul. ous session.
Price, €/MWh 21.940 22.224 22.181 Storage sendout is set to remain strong in the
No. of trades 163 137 1441 sessions ahead as the prompt in firm backwarda-
Volume, MWh 196,680 181,800 1,941,240 tion with the near-curve will keep to incentive
withdrawals for the short-term.
ITALIAN SPARK SPREADS FOR 49.13% FUEL EFFICIENCY This is also due to expectations of strong
14 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh central-heating demand as temperature are set to
Period PSV Spark spread Spark diff remain up to -4°C below the seasonal norm for
February '21 21.38 23.69 -0.11 the next five days, according to WSI forecast.
March '21 20.26 19.51 -0.23 However, temperatures are set to climb above
April '21 18.30 14.65 -0.19 the norm in week 4, according to MetDesk, which
Q2 '21 17.88 17.19 -0.16
combined with strong renewabble output forecast
is set to weigh on domestic demand for the period.
Q3 '21 17.35 23.66 0.59
Fast depleting storage sites meant that the
Q4 '21 18.74 22.71 0.01
Summer ‘21 discount to the Winter ‘21 contract
Q1 '22 18.91 23.13 0.49
narrowed since the beginning of the week and
Summer 21 17.61 20.43 0.22 was also much tighter compared with the previous
Year 2022 17.28 20.91 0.02 year during the same week. Marta Del Buono

ITALIAN FUNDAMENTALS SUMMARY, MCM/DAY 13 JANUARY 2021

Day on Day Year on Year
Daily Total Difference % Change Difference % Change
Parameter
Production 10.21 0.19 1.90 -0.56 -5.22
Import 204.55 -34.46 -14.42 13.31 6.96
LNG Sendout 21.73 -0.13 -0.59 -10.62 -32.84
Storage into System 116.34 -3.66 -3.05 -2.26 -1.90
Supply total 352.83 -38.06 -9.74 -0.14 -0.04
Internal Demand 352.83 -38.06 -9.74 14.93 4.42
Exports 0.97 0.01 1.04 -0.01 -0.68
Storage from System 0.00 0.00 - 0.00 -
Demand total 353.80 -38.05 -9.71 14.93 4.40
*
estimated.

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 9

Markets Back to
contents

TURKISH GAS PRICE ASSESSMENT 14 JANUARY 2021

TL/kscm $/MWh €/MWh $/MMBtu
Data
Period Bid Offer Diff used Midpoint Diff Midpoint Diff Midpoint Diff
Day-ahead 1,309.000* 1,329.000* 11.000 I 16.840 0.240 13.867 0.212 4.935 0.070
Indicative bid/offers
*

Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals, I – Interpolation/extrapolation. The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment.

EXCHANGE RATES 14 JANUARY 2021 £ TURKEY

Period TL € $
Day-ahead 0.190 0.889 0.724 Turkish Day-ahead up for third
Source: ICIS, based on Bloomberg data
session on cold weather outlook
NO TURKISH GAS TRADES REPORTED Outlook
T emperatures expected to drop below seasonal norms in the coming days
This is likely to support the Day-ahead contract
Two laden LNG vessels expected to arrive to Turkey by 21 January - LNG Edge

Turkey’s natural gas contract climbed for the third consecutive session on Thursday,
following expectations of colder temperatures in the coming days.
Turkish gas for Day-ahead delivery closed at TL1319/kscm, up TL11/kscm session on
session.
Temperatures in Turkey are expected to drop 4-6°C below seasonal norms between
15-19 January, data from weather service WSI showed. The cold weather outlook is likely
to continue supporting the prompt contract with ongoing demand for heating appliances.
Cem Bektas

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 10

Across the markets Back to
contents

Month-ahead price assessment snapshot: 14 January Month-ahead price assessment (past 30 days)
€/MWh €/MWh NBP Zeebrugge
TTF NCG
30 35

25 30
20
25
15
20
10
15
5

0 10
NBP Zee- ZTP TTF PEG NCG GAS- VTP Czech PVB PSV 27 Nov 07 Dec 15 Dec 23 Dec 05 Jan 14 Jan
brugge POOL 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021
Source: ICIS Source: ICIS

Front season price assessment (past 30 days) TTF quarter+2 vs gas oil 0.1%
€/MWh €/MWh Barges FOB ARA, $/tonne
NBP Zeebrugge
19 20.0 700
TTF NCG TTF
18 Gas oil 0.1%
17.5 600
17
15.0 500
16
12.5 400
15
10.0 300
14
13 7.5 200

12 5.0 100
27 Nov 07 Dec 15 Dec 23 Dec 05 Jan 14 Jan Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: ICIS Source: ICIS

East Asia LNG vs TTF front-month historic closes

$/mmbtu EAX month+1 TTF month+1
40

30

20

10

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2020 2021
Source: ICIS

CONTINENTAL PRICE ASSESSMENTS 14 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Zeebrugge TTF NBP
Period Bid Offer Diff Bid Offer Diff Bid Offer Diff
Day-ahead 22.231* 22.385* 0.281 21.350* 21.400* -0.463 24.615 24.769 -0.336
Weekend 22.086* 22.279* 0.147 21.000* 21.500* -0.588 24.298* 24.490* -0.653
WDNW 22.008* 22.200* 0.242 20.925* 21.425* -0.500 24.498* 24.690* -0.815
BOM 21.987* 22.179* 0.241 21.050* 21.250* -0.500 24.515* 24.707* -0.528
February '21 21.265* 21.333* -0.969 21.050 21.050 -0.525 24.033* 24.100* -0.944
March '21 20.094* 20.200* -0.139 20.000 20.050 -0.488 21.612* 21.718* -0.311
April '21 18.116* 18.193* 0.036 17.125 17.175 -0.300 18.299* 18.375* -0.144
Q2 '21 16.812* 16.888* 0.000 16.575* 16.625* -0.338 16.802* 16.879* -0.181
Q3 '21 16.518* 16.594* -0.001 16.275* 16.325* -0.338 15.837* 15.914* -0.015
Q4 '21 18.291* 18.463* 0.504 17.600* 17.700* -0.288 18.722* 18.894* 0.183
Q1 '22 18.798* 18.970* 0.505 18.100* 18.200* -0.288 19.935* 20.107* 0.189
Q2 '22 15.154* 15.344* 0.285 15.325* 15.450* 0.075 14.934* 15.125* 0.426
Q3 '22 14.958* 15.148* 0.283 15.125* 15.250* 0.075 14.415* 14.606* 0.422
Gas Year 21 16.798* 16.979* 0.389 16.550* 16.650* -0.100 16.998* 17.179* 0.305
Year 2022 16.561* 16.742* 0.325 16.275* 16.375* 0.000 16.523* 16.704* 0.321
Year 2023 n/a n/a n/a 15.200* 15.700* -0.025 15.418* 15.560* 0.174
Year 2024 n/a n/a n/a 14.975* 15.000* 0.013 n/a n/a n/a
Year 2025 n/a n/a n/a 14.525* 15.025* 0.025 n/a n/a n/a
Summer 21 16.664* 16.741* -0.001 16.425 16.475 -0.338 16.319* 16.396* -0.098
Winter 21 18.545* 18.717* 0.504 17.850 17.950 -0.288 19.329* 19.501* 0.186
Summer 22 15.056* 15.246* 0.284 15.225 15.350 0.075 14.675* 14.865* 0.424
Winter 22 n/a n/a n/a 16.775 16.900 0.138 17.656* 17.818* 0.268
Summer 23 n/a n/a n/a 14.300* 14.800* 0.000 13.563* 13.753* 0.178
Winter 23 n/a n/a n/a 15.750* 16.250* 0.000 16.814* 16.861* 0.087
ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 11

Supply/demand data Back to
contents

British storage British LDZ and NTS demand

mcm mcm NTS day-ahead LDZ
3,000 450
2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
2017/18 2016/17 400
2,500
350
2,000 300
250
1,500
200
1,000 150
100
500 50
0 0
11 Oct 01 Nov 01 Dec 01 Jan
1 Oct 1 Jan 31 Mar 30 Jun 29 Sep 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: National Grid Source: National Grid

Sources of British supply: 14 January 2021 OCM SAP vs NTS demand

Interconnector mcm NTS demand SAP p/th
13.64% 450 90
Storage
4.89% 400 80
350 70
BBL 300 60
11.30% UKCS
23.89% 250 50
200 40
150 30
LNG
4.35% 100 20
50 10
0 0
Norway 16 Dec 22 Dec 28 Dec 03 Jan 07 Jan 13 Jan
41.92% 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021
Source: National Grid and Gassco Source: National Grid

LNG end of day flows BBL flows vs prompt NBP/TTF differential

mcm Isle of Grain Milford Haven - Dragon mcm BBL flows NBP/TTF differential €/MWh
Grain NTS2 Milford Haven - South Hook 50 5
100

80 40 4

60 30 3

40 20 2

20 10 1

0 0 0
13 Dec 19 Dec 25 Dec 31 Dec 06 Jan 12 Jan 20 Nov 01 Dec 10 Dec 21 Dec 05 Jan 13 Jan
2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021
Source: National Grid Source: National Grid and ICIS

Interconnector flows vs IUK shipper nominations Prompt basis vs Interconnector flows

mcm Actual flow Day-ahead nominations (18:00) mcm Actual flow NBP-Zeebrugge day-ahead spread p/th
NBP-TTF day-ahead spread
60 60 10
50 50 8
40
40 6
30
30 4
20
20 2
10
0 10 0

-10 0 -2
11 Dec 18 Dec 27 Dec 02 Jan 07 Jan 13 Jan 30 Nov 07 Dec 16 Dec 31 Dec 13 Jan
2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: Interconnector UK Source: Interconnector UK and ICIS

Data sourced from ICIS, National Grid, ICE Endex and Interconnector UK

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 12

News Back to
contents

High prices and volatility hit gained $3.45/MMBtu session on session on 7

January to settle at $11.66/MMBtu.

European gas markets In line with massive hub gains, spot LNG
prices in Europe also moved to multi-year
highs, although spot liquidity was concentrat-
The return of proper cold winter weather to Low temperatures and supply shortages ed in Asia, where below-average temperatures
Europe coupled with tight LNG supply pushed have particularly impacted Spain as the country pushed spot LNG prices to all-time highs.
both continental hub and spot LNG prices to witnessed the arrival of storm Filomena, which Gas prices at European hubs then corrected
record highs. brought snowfalls not seen in various parts of down on the back of expectations of milder
The market is braced for price volatility over the country for decades. temperatures for week three.
the coming weeks, with much depending on The already-limited LNG and vessel avail- ICIS LNG spot price assessments were lifted
revisions to weather forecasts. ability in the Atlantic basin made it impossible to a small premium to the TTF.
The Dutch TTF front-month contract regis- for Spanish imports to react to the extreme Potential cargo cancellations from the US
tered one of its largest ever day-on-day jumps weather conditions and the situation was for March loading could also affect prices.
on 12 January as it rose by $1.47/MMBtu worsened with technical issues also reducing “I think activity in Europe will be quiet until
compared to its previous settlement to close at pipeline flows from Algeria on 6-7 January. February, then let’s see the [potential] cancel-
$9.43/MMBtu, or €26.46/MWh. February ‘21 on the Spanish PVB hub lations from the US for March loading”, a
Europe-based LNG trader said.
Rising Asian spot LNG premium cuts European LNG supply The deadline for cancellation notifica-
M tonnes imported M tonnes imported EAX premium to TTF $/MMBtu tion for contractual offtakers of US exporter
25 3.0 Cheniere is 20 January.
The trader source said that vessels loaded
20 2.5 in January to discharge in Asia in February may
not be ready to pick up a cargo in early March.
2.0
15 This could force some companies to cancel
1.5
free-on-board cargoes from the US for loading
10
during the first half of March, in order to take
1.0 advantage of high February price in Asia.
5
0.5 LNG STORAGE STOCKS FALL
LNG stocks across the main importing countries
0 0.0
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 in Europe dropped in the week to 13 January
Source: ICIS due to sluggish cargo arrivals and ❯❯ Page 14

Global Energy Forum

Building a more
secure, resilient, and
sustainable future
19-22 January 2021 | Online

Join ICIS thought leaders at the Global Energy Forum as we provide

insights to help you navigate through market uncertainties and the
AGENDA
TIME
TYPE
DAY 1

ICIS Global Energy Forum

SGT 16:10-16:2
GMT 08:10-08: 5 Live stream
25 Middle East
crude producers
15 mins – navigating

wider energy transition into 2021 and beyond.

the new normal

Day 1: APAC • Geopolitic

Middle East
al tensions and
the impact of
the coronaviru
• OPEC+ cuts s on the
19 January 2021, 3:00pm to 5:05pm SGT• Challenges forandthetheMiddle
fallout from
2020 price War
East as the key
supplier to Asia
SGT 16:25-16:4 James Dennis CLICK
– Senior
HERE TO
Editor Manager,
GMT 08:25-08 5 Panel REGISTER
Crude Oil, ICIS
:55 discussion Oil in a sustainabl
mean? e world – what
does the transition
30 mins to cleaner oil

AGENDA • How has the

role of energy
transition to companies
cleaner oil? changed in
• How can energy the world’s
TIME TYPE DAY 1
• What challenges companies emerge as

Topics include:
does this pose winners in
SGT 14:50-15:00 On demand Introduction to your virtual ICIS conference for the market? the transition?
Moderator:
GMT 06:50-07:00 Watch these short, informal videos, designed to give Sophie
you the
Udubasceanu
Panelists: Li – Global
tools and know-how to transform your virtual ICIS Li –
conference
Distillates, ICIS Head of Energy Analytics, Crude Editor, ICIS
experience. China Crude
Patricia Tao &
• Welcome and introduction from virtual conference – Head
chairof Energy
James Dennis Analytics, China
• How to watch content – Senior Editor Refining, ICIS
Ajay Parmar Manager,
• How to meet people – Senior Analyst, Crude
Richard Price Global Crude, Oil, ICIS
• How to ask questions – Deputy Global ICIS
Crude Editor,
• How to personalise your experience
LNG ICIS

• Crude oil: how the market can recover from its recent turmoil?
SGT 15:30-16:0 stream
• How to join a discussion group
GMT 07:30-08 0 Live stream
:00 The global LNG
Crude stream 30 mins market

SGT 15:00-15:30 Live stream Crude oil: How the market can recover from its recent turmoil
Ben Wetherall
–
GMT 07:00-07:30 30 mins Ed Cox – Global Market Development Director,
EDT 02:00-02:30 • 2021: More LNG Editor, ICIS
ICIS
• Oil market turbulence in 2020 • Global scope for demand
optimism?
• The 2021 demand recovery – when will ittrade
• Analysis
flows and the
happen? outlook for US
• Beyond coronavirus of Asian LNG LNG production
and European

• How has the role of energy companies changed in the world’s

gas price correlation
SGT 16:10-16:5 10 mins: Screen s
Ajay Parmar – Senior Analyst, Global Crude, ICIS break
GMT 08:10-08: 5 Live stream
Richard
55 Price – Deputy Global Crude Editor, ICIS
LNG markets
in the shadow
45 mins of Covid
SGT 15:30-16:00 Live stream China’s crude oil demand outlook amid refinery expansions and
GMT 07:30-08:00 restructuring in the 14th five-year Asianplan
LNG spot prices
30 mins 2020, which have recovered
were triggered strongly from
induced weak by the global record lows
demand. gas in H1
• What is China’s crude oil import demand next
remains under threat
year and the price recoveryglut and coronavirus-
how
But
much distillates will it export?recovery with and market
in key Asia-Pacificquestions over the pace rebalancing

transition to cleaner oil?

• China refining sector: What lies ahead? markets. of demand
• Quenching the downstream China petrochemical
and east thirst
Asian market
15 mins developments
Li Li – Head of Energy Analytics, China Crude & Distillates, ICIS
Patricia Tao – Head of EnergyAlex Analytics,
Siow –China Refining, ICIS
Senior
• Chinese market LNG Analyst, ICIS
10 mins: Screen break • Japan, South developments
Korea and Taiwan and demand outlook
demand outlook

• Global LNG trade flows and the outlook for US LNG production
• The path to net zero: Modelling the EU power system to 2050 View agenda

Join the online discussion

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 13

News Back to
contents

OUTLOOK FOR 2021

Turkish power and gas markets

The new year 2021 may bring radical
changes to the Turkish power and gas markets,
although much will depend on the strategy
that policy-makers would be willing to adopt.
For the very short-term - namely the re-
maining winter weeks - Turkey is likely to ramp
up pipeline imports from Russia and refrain
from entering the LNG market.
This is dictated by the widening price differ-
ence between the oil-indexed Russian import
price for the first quarter of 2021, which currently
stands at around $170.00/kscm (€13.30/MWh;
$4.73/MMBTu) while February prices for Turkey
assessed by ICIS are now at $9.68/MMBTu.
With oil-indexed prices being lower in
the first quarter of 2021, compared to the
first quarter of 2020, when they were almost
double current values, gas-fired generation is
working at full throttle, taking advantage of
profitable spark spreads.
Average daily gas-fired production has
been hovering around 194GWh since the
beginning of the year and is likely to increase
on the back of peak winter demand and low
hydro production.
However, the fundamental picture will
change from the second quarter and into the
summer months as oil-indexed gas prices are
estimated to rise to $190/kscm in Q2 ’21,
$200.00/kscm in Q3 ’21 and $207.00/kscm in
the final quarter of this year.
It is early to predict whether LNG prices
will continue to retain a premium over these
values, but the price difference between LNG
values and oil-indexed import prices will dictate
not only the short-term strategy of incumbent
BOTAS but also its longer-term options.
This is because the state company and pri-
vate importers hold long-term contracts for a
total 15.9 billion cubic metres of gas. These in-
clude BOTAS’ 6.6bcm/year contract with Azer-
baijan, its 4bcm/year contract with Russia and
a 1.3bcm/year contract with Nigeria. Another
4bcm contracted by four private importers will
also expire in 2021.
Additionally, Turkey’s 2.1bcm/year LNG
mid-term contract with Qatargas expired in
September 2020 and there are as yet no in-
dications that BOTAS may have renewed the
agreement.
It is as yet unclear whether BOTAS and the
four private importers would still want to re-
new some of the contracts. Some traders sug-
gest that with reduced demand, a weakened
economy weakened and pandemic-related re-
strictions, consumption was unlikely to recover
in the immediate future.
Much will depend on the concessions that
Gazprom would be willing in its negotiations
with BOTAS.
The two companies had been reportedly
involved in sporadic discussions throughout
2020 and some traders even suggested last
summer than Gazprom may have agreed to a
hybrid formula that would involve an element
of TTF-indexation.
However, with the TTF price soaring in
recent weeks, BOTAS may be swayed to opt
for its well-worn oil-indexed formula, which
is expected to bring cheaper import prices in
Q1 ’21 compared to those seen on European
hubs.
The same logic may also apply to its long-
term contracts with Azerbaijan and Nigeria.
Aura Sabadus

High prices and European LNG sendout vs storage withdrawals

million cubic meters (mcm) storage million cubic meters (mcm) LNG sendout
volatility hit European 1,200
2020/21 storage withdrawals 2020/21 LNG sendout
500
gas markets 1,000
2019/20 storage withdrawals 2019/20 LNG sendout

400
❯❯ Continued from page 13 800
the rapid demand jump as a result of colder- 600 300
than-average temperatures.
In Spain, LNG storage fullness fell from 400 200
51% on 1 January to 35% on 7 January. 200
Stocks then fell to 34% by 13 January. 100
LNG sendout fell from 95 million cubic 0

metres (mcm)/day) on 7 January to 42mcm/day -200 0

01 Dec 07 Dec 13 Dec 19 Dec 25 Dec 31 Dec 05 Jan 11 Jan
on 10 January as lower Algerian pipe gas flow
rates recovered. Source: European TSOs

But sendout jumped again to 71mcm/day

on 13 January as Algerian flows decreased.
Due to the low LNG stocks and continued
supply uncertainty, Spanish grid operator Ena-
gas cancelled two of the three LNG reloads that
were scheduled for January.
At the same time, French LNG storage full-
ness fell by just 1% from 7 January to 48%
by 13 January. Over this period only one cargo
was delivered to France, according to LNG
Edge, while sendout rates were little changed.
Qatari LNG remained absence from the UK
supply mix.
Total LNG sendout across Europe dropped
from 1.16 billion cubic metres (bcm) between
31 December and 6 January to 1.12bcm
between 7 and 13 January, illustrating the
pressure on terminal stocks at a time of high
demand. Daniel Stemler

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 14

News Back to
contents

DAILY OIL SUMMARY

Oil futures were largely flat on Thursday with
only small gains recorded early in the session
before turning bearish.
Donald Trump has made history to be
impeached for a second time.
The markets reacted with some volatility
from the course of action. However, the Senate
will not be called back into session until the day
before the inauguration of Joe Biden, meaning
it is unlikely to be passed through before then, Non-OPEC crude output in December stood
if at all. at 62.7m bbl/day, which was 2.5m bbl/day
OPEC’s monthly report showed a large rise down year-on-year. OPEC production stood at
in spot prices over December. Strong buying 25.4m bbl/day in December, up 300,000 bbl/day
from the Asia-Pacific regions were listed as a year on year.
main reason. Other factors included an upwards For 2021 global oil demand OPEC fore-
revision in global growth for 2020 at the end of casted an increase by 5.9m bbl/day year on year
the year due to the US stimulus package being to an average of 95.9m bbl/day.
passed. Andrew Putwain

Gain clarity on the

European gas market
Every Friday at 9am CST, 3pm London

Catch the latest on

global LNG dynamics
Every Monday at 1pm CST, 6pm London

Join today at www.enelyst.com

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 15

News Back to
contents

Withdrawal rates may leave stores under 25% full by March

❯❯ Continued from page 1 Greater year on year European withdrawals and TTF spot premium
mcm 2016-20 average storage withdrawals TTF Day-ahead-front month spread 2021 €/MWh
premiums across European hubs. At the Dutch
2021 storage withdrawals TTF Day-ahead-front month spread average 2016-20
TTF, the Day-ahead contract has traded above 1,000 0.25
February ’21 throughout most of January, 0.20
encouraging shippers to withdraw from 800 0.15
stores. 0.10
In comparison, between 4-12 January 0.05
600
during the past five years, the TTF Day-ahead 0.00
averaged a €0.15/MWh discount to the front -0.05
400
month contract. -0.10
Prompt premium may diminish as storage -0.15
200 -0.20
levels fall and traders’ concerns over supply
-0.25
flexibility for the rest of the winter increase, but
0 -0.30
as the withdrawals are driven by high demand 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
as well as price incentive they are likely to Source: ICIS

continue.
TTF Winter '21 premium over Summer '21 narrows as stocks fall
SUMMER ’21 DISCOUNT NARROWS €/MWh TTF Winter '21-Summer '21 European storage % fullness
TTF seasonal spreads have tightened as storage 2.5 100
levels have fallen, indicating anticipation of
increased injection demand in summer. 2.0 80
Between 1 December 2020-13 January
2021 European stored gas levels fell by 25 1.5 60
percentage points. Over the same period, the
TTF Winter ’21 premium over Summer ’21 1.0 40
fell by 35%, narrowing largely due to a rising
summer-delivery price. 0.5 20
A trader said strong summer 2021 injec-
tions would be needed if withdrawals continue 0
0.0
at the current rate. 01 Dec 07 Dec 11 Dec 17 Dec 23 Dec 31 Dec 07 Jan 13 Jan
2020 2021
Source: ICIS

LACK OF LNG
Soaring Asian LNG prices have drawn cargoes European storage to significantly deplete by Q1 end on January withdrawal rate
away from European shores over recent % fullness 2016-20 average 2021 2021 projection
months, with this situation escalating in 80
January. 70
The ICIS East Asia Index (EAX) showed its
60
first sign of weakness on 14 January, recording
its first drop in value since 24 December follow- 50
ing forecasts of warmer Japanese weather for 40
late January.
30
However, significant Asian premiums over
European markets for February and March 20
delivery mean LNG supply into Europe could be 10
limited for the remainder of the first quarter,
0
leaving shippers with few options but to rely on 01 Jan 12 Jan 23 Jan 03 Feb 14 Feb 25 Feb 07 Mar 18 Mar 30 Mar
stored gas. Kaja Sillett and Julie Fisher Source: ICIS

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 16

News Back to
contents

High Asian prices to hinder US LNG to Europe for now

❯❯ Continued from page 1 European LNG sendout this winter has slumped year on year
average temperatures for the remainder of mcm 2020/21 LNG sendout 2019/20 LNG sendout
the week. 500
The upward revisions in weather forecasts, 450
and the Asian LNG prompt rollover due at the 400
end of the week, would have helped prices 350
correct downwards from 14 January. Yet there 300
should be limits to the price downside with the 250
prompt market tight for most of this winter 200
period. 150
ICIS analysis shows that recent unex-
100
pected cold weather in Japan caught utili-
50
ties short of fuel and generation supplies as
0
electricity demand sent spot prices to record 01 Dec 05 Dec 09 Dec 13 Dec 17 Dec 21 Dec 25 Dec 29 Dec 02 Jan 06 Jan 11 Jan
levels. This is one part of the broader bullish Source: European TSOs

fundamental picture across Asia with recent

cold weather in China and South Korea also TTF winter products face increased volatility
limiting spot cargo availability, while high $/MMBtu Henry Hub front month
Henry Hub *1.15 + round-trip fuel costs to NW Europe
continental demand has boosted transport 10 Henry Hub *1.15 + round-trip shipping to NW Europe
costs. 9 TTF front month
Even with elevated shipping costs, there
8
is still a strong incentive for US producers to
send LNG to Asia for March delivery with EAX 7
prices still trading at high premiums to North 6
American and European gas markets.
5
On 13 January, the EAX March ‘21 held a
$6.138/MMBtu premium over the estimated 4
delivered US cargo cost, when full-cost round 3
shipping from the US Gulf to Japan is included. 2
This compares with just a $3.593/MMBtu Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
premium for a delivered US LNG cargo into Source: ICIS and CME

northwest Europe for March delivery.

TTF VOLATILITY
The Dutch TTF gas near curve has reflected
EAX price volatility in recent sessions but some
support is likely for the remainder of the winter
period with a high rate of storage withdrawals
tightening supply.
The Dutch TTF March ’21 was assessed at
its highest level of $8.904/MMBtu on 12 Janu-
ary but has since shed value.
Softer Asian LNG prices were a factor, while
milder and windier weather forecasts eroded
the TTF prompt and helped to erode strength
from the near curve. Carbon prices have also
edged lower since 12 January.
However bullish fundamental signals
remain. Falling LNG cargoes into Europe and
lower regional LNG sendout has depleted stor-
age inventories. Between 1 December 2020-11
January 2021 around 24bcm of gas was taken
from European sites, up from 12bcm during
the same period a year before as withdrawals
were used to offset lower LNG supply. European
facilities are about 62% full, twenty percentage
points lower than 2019 levels. There is still some
uncertainty surrounding weather forecasts, with
any new downward revisions in temperatures
likely to put further pressure on supply margins
and trigger further price volatility.
HENRY HUB UPDATE
Shorter-dated Henry Hub prices have drifted
in recent sessions with milder temperatures
expected from next month. Peak winter
heating demand is expected late January.
Christopher Rene

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 17

UK Secondary Data Back to
contents

ICE UK NATURAL GAS FUTURES 14 JANUARY 2021 p/th

Settle Change High Low Total Open Settle Change High Low Total Open
Period p/th p/th p/th p/th Lots m th interest Period p/th p/th p/th p/th Lots m th interest
Feb-21 63.150 -2.010 69.08 59.87 13,170 368.76 59,930 Q2 21 43.989 -0.563 45.00 42.65 800 72.80
Mar-21 56.350 -0.660 60.20 53.01 5,225 161.97 65,875 Q3 21 41.618 -0.214 41.40 40.60 625 57.50
Apr-21 47.500 -1.040 48.25 45.55 3,260 97.80 34,730 Q4 21 49.265 -0.295
May-21 43.000 -0.230 42.86 41.50 2,000 62.00 23,060 Q1 22 52.468 -0.399 51.80 51.50 30 2.70
Jun-21 41.500 -0.430 40.35 40.22 1,560 46.80 18,105 Q2 22 40.144 0.790
Jul-21 40.010 -1.070 39.40 39.35 1,340 41.54 16,205 Q3 22 37.367 1.011
Aug-21 41.290 -0.240 39.75 39.75 1,340 41.54 16,485 Q4 22 45.634 0.850
Sep-21 43.620 0.700 1,330 39.90 16,155 Q1 23 48.543 0.640
Oct-21 45.270 0.270 755 23.41 15,595 Q2 23 37.281 0.530
Nov-21 50.390 -0.060 755 22.65 15,695 Q3 23 35.432 0.377
Dec-21 52.170 -1.090 755 23.41 15,645 Q4 23 45.041 0.080
Jan-22 53.940 -0.870 785 24.34 15,195 Quarterly Total 1,455 133.00
Feb-22 53.760 -0.660 785 21.98 15,195 SU'21 42.797 -0.387 43.75 41.15 720 131.76
Mar-22 49.830 0.310 785 24.34 15,195 WI'21 50.849 -0.346 51.65 49.09 755 137.41
Apr-22 43.730 0.680 430 12.90 7,035 SU'22 38.748 0.901 39.00 37.30 430 78.69
May-22 39.640 0.790 430 13.33 7,035 WI'22 47.073 0.747 46.90 45.85 230 41.86
Jun-22 37.080 0.900 430 12.90 7,035 SU'23 36.351 0.453 36.50 35.77 165 30.20
Monthly Total 35,135 1,039.57 364,170 WI'23 44.690 -0.009 44.69 44.69 30 5.46
SU'24 35.847 -0.100
February Settlement 63.15 WI'24 44.949 -0.100
For further information, contact Jason
February Contract index 61.363 Pegley on +44 (0)207 065 7743, SU'25 36.197 -0.100
ICE Futures Europe, Milton Gate, 60 Yearly Total 2,330 425.38
February Weighted Average 62.71
Chiswell Street, London EC1Y 4SA.
Final January Contract Index 46.810 www.theice.com

ICE ENDEX OCM SMP/SAP REPORT GAS DAY 13, 14 JANUARY 2021 p/th
Gas Day SAP SMP buy SMP sell SAP 7 day SAP 30 day
13 68.47 69.60 67.34 63.19 53.43

DAY-AHEAD BEACH CAPACITY PRICES OIL MARKET PRICE ASSESSMENTS

14 JANUARY 2021 (16:30 UK TIME) 14 JANUARY 2021
Bid Yearly ICE Brent ($/barrel) 55.69 -0.70
Terminal p/th cumulative Gas oil 0.1% (barges 449.50 451.50 -0.80
Bacton 0.100 0.100 FOB ARA $/tonne)
St Fergus 0.100 0.100 Fuel oil 1% (barges 310.25 314.75 -4.60
Teesside 0.100 0.100 FOB ARA $/tonne)
*Gas oil and fuel oil prices supplied by ICIS pricing
Theddlethorpe 0.100 0.100
Easington 0.100 0.100

NATIONAL GRID DAILY CAPACITY SUMMARY

National Grid has become aware of an intermittent error relating to the D0 Daily Firm Available data, whereby the quantity
has been frequently overstated. As a result, ICIS is not immediately able to publish the British daily capacity summary.

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 18

Trades Back to
contents

EUROPEAN OTC TRADES VOLUME 14 JANUARY 2021

Country Trading location Total MWh % curve* % prompt Number of trades

Austria VTP 2346120 96.2 3.8 75
Belgium Zeebrugge 236069 52.1 47.9 37
Belgium ZTP 1892160 84.0 16.0 19
Britain NBP 14996150 84.8 15.2 821
Czech Republic Czech Republic 200400 64.0 36.0 45
France PEG 4100115 94.4 5.6 182
Germany GASPOOL 2201760 81.5 18.5 201
Germany NCG 7965795 95.6 4.5 233

Hungary MGP n/a n/a n/a 0

Italy PSV 2805520 68.2 31.8 253
Netherlands TTF 130545055 97.1 2.9 4830
Poland Poland n/a n/a n/a 0
Slovakia Slovakia 1200 n/a 100.0 1
Spain PVB 99440 98.0 2.0 5

EUROPEAN OTC TRADED RANGES 14 JANUARY 2021

Day-ahead February '21 Q2 '21 Summer 21 Year 2022
Trading
Country Location Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Austria VTP 19.100 20.450 18.100 20.350 n/a n/a 16.800 17.500 n/a n/a
Belgium Zeebrugge 21.115 22.308 20.948 20.948 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Belgium ZTP 21.025 21.375 20.900 21.250 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Britain NBP 23.365 26.539 23.014 26.041 16.255 16.754 16.032 16.492 n/a n/a
Czech Czech
Republic Republic 19.200 20.300 19.450 20.100 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
France PEG 20.350 21.950 20.575 21.375 n/a n/a 16.285 16.555 n/a n/a
Germany GASPOOL 19.725 21.850 19.425 21.775 n/a n/a 16.700 16.715 n/a n/a
Germany NCG 19.500 22.000 19.400 21.950 17.120 17.120 16.935 17.060 16.305 16.475
Hungary MGP n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Italy PSV 21.000 22.650 20.350 21.900 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Netherlands TTF 19.950 23.075 19.650 23.100 16.250 17.340 15.950 17.225 16.100 16.350
Poland Poland n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Slovakia Slovakia 19.200 19.200 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Spain PVB 29.000 29.000 25.400 25.450 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 19

Weather Back to
contents

Days 1-5 Outlook: 15-19 January

Low pressure will move southwards to Ukraine and south-

eastern Europe by Friday, pulling in very cold air from Russia
in to eastern and southeastern Europe.
In the west, a ridge of high pressure building over Iberia
will build to the British Isles, then extending to central
Europe and the southern Nordic region later, bringing drier
conditions - although some models indicate a deeper low
arriving just to the north of the British Isles Saturday and
Sunday, which could bring windier/wetter conditions and
milder Atlantic air.
Mean temperature anomalies will be -1 to -4°C widely but
-4 to -6°C for central Spain and -5 to -8/-10°C for central
Scandinavia, Finland, Baltic states, Belarus and northern
Ukraine. Turkey, -1 to +3°C for central areas, +4 to +7°C in
the east.

Days 6-10 Outlook: 20-24 January

Confidence is low to moderate, especially central and

western Europe with a high ensemble spread of members.
Higher confidence in colder conditions extending from
Russia to Scandinavia and northeastern Europe.
Despite the low confidence, the general pattern is towards
higher pressure over Iberia and southeastern Europe,
although southern Italy to Greece and Turkey may see
lower pressure and more unsettled conditions.
Low pressure passing over the north-west will bring wetter
and windier conditions, as well as a risk of some colder
plunges especially from Wednesday.
Mean temperature anomalies should be 0 to +2°C widely
but -2 to 0°C for most of the British Isles and southern
Scandinavian.
Northern Nordic region/Finland, Belarus and Turkey, -3 to
-8°C.

<8 8-6 6-4 4-2 2-0 0 0-2 2-4 4-6 6-8 8>
BELOW NORMAL ABOVE NORMAL

Weather forecast graphics and commentary provided in this publication are supplied by Weather Services International (WSI). WSI provides a wide range of pan-European weather forecasts,
commentary and graphics specifically tailored for the energy marketplace. For additional information or to subscribe to our free quarterly WSI Energycast Europe Newsletter please e-mail
energy@wsieurope.com or visit www.wsieurope.com.

European Spot
Gas Markets

99 Bishopsgate, Editor, ESGM Head of Sales Global Operations Manager

London EC2M 3AL, UK Ben Samuel  +44 20 7911 1726 Dan Barnard Louise Murrell
 ben.samuel@icis.com
www.icis.com/energy Product Director Deputy Global Production Editor
Deputy Editor, ESGM Fionn O’Raghallaigh +44 20 7911 1941 Kristin Foster
ICIS Customer Support Alice Casagni +44 20 7911 1982  fionn.oraghallaigh@icis.com
+65 6588 3955 (Asia & Middle East)  alice.casagni@icis.com Global Head of Copy Editing
+44 20 8652 3335 (Europe & Africa) Senior Marketing Manager Ethel Ong +65 6780 4375
+1 888 525 3255 (toll free US & Head of Gas Kirsty Fleck +44 208 652 8377 ethel.ong@icis.com
Canada) or +1 713 525 2613 (Americas) Ben Wetherall  +44 20 7911 1786  kirsty.fleck@icis.com
csc@icis.com  ben.wetherall@icis.com
Publisher
Editorial Director Dean Curtis, Managing Director, ICIS
ICIS Compliance and Methodology
Stephen Burns +1 713 525 2611
www.icis.com/compliance
 stephen.burns@icis.com

European Spot Gas Markets is published weekdays by ICIS, 99 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AL, United Kingdom. ICIS accept no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward
transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal. Should you require a licence or additional copies, please email us at energysales@icis.com.
ISSN 1755-7321. ©2021 ICIS, part of LexisNexis Risk Solutions Group

ESGM 27.009 | 14 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 20