ESGM 27.002 | 5 January 2021 | Published by ICIS | www.icis.

com/energy | 18 Pages

European Spot
Gas Markets

1 MarketsBritain 2
2 News Market impact of new Czech
3 Secondary data
Trades 17

Section
Section

Section
Belgium 3 pipeline set to stay muted 13 ICE Natural gas futures 16
Netherlands 4 Ostroleka to add 750MW to Poland’s OCM data 16
Germany 5 CCGT capacity by 2025 14 Beach assessment 16
Central Europe 6 Daily oil summary 14 Oil market price assessment 16
France 7 National grid daily capacity 16
Spain 8
Italy 9
Turkey 10

NBP DAY-AHEAD MIDPOINT

5 JANUARY 2021
NBP, p/th 54.250
IUK raises short-term booking
HEREN® MONTHLY INDICES
JANUARY 21
costs but flows set to persist
NBP, p/th 49.207 High demand and a lack of capacity on alternative Europe will need to book capacity via the Interconnec-
Zeebrugge, p/th 49.181 routes should keep gas flowing from Belgium to Brit- tor. Flows to Britain from mainland Europe have surged
ain on the Interconnector pipeline despite an increase since the start of 2021, as shippers have snapped up
TTF, €/MWh 16.340
in short-term booking costs from Wednesday. short-term capacity to meet British demand and capi-
PEG, €/MWh 16.511 Interconnector UK (IUK), the operator of the Brit- talise on an NBP premium to neighbouring hubs.
NCG, €/MWh 16.345 ish-Belgian pipeline, has reversed cuts to short-term Data from transparency platform ENTSOG showed
GASPOOL, €/MWh 16.789 capacity costs in response to market fundamentals that shippers have purchased additional capacity
and widening locational spreads between the British each day since 2 January, with bookings on 5 January
VTP, €/MWh 15.755
and Belgian gas markets. reaching 42mcm.
PSV, €/MWh 16.765 IUK announced on Tuesday that daily and within-day Shippers have nominated to use all held capacity
tariffs would revert to 3.5p/th for the remainder of Janu- since the start of the year, averaging flows of almost
HEREN® MONTHLY CUMULATIVE ary. The change is to take effect from 08:00 UK time on 37mcm/day from Belgium to Britain.
INDICES FEBRUARY 21
6 January. This rate was cut to 2.0p/th on 21 December. 17.9mcm/day is held from 6 January-31 January
NBP, p/th 56.396 Shippers have two potential routes to move gas be- at the time of writing, of which 10.2mcm/day is held
Zeebrugge, p/th 54.600 tween Britain and mainland Europe, the Interconnector under a long-term contract. ICIS assessed the NBP
TTF, €/MWh 18.985 and the British-Dutch BBL. Between 1-6 January the Day-ahead contract over 6p/th above the Belgian Zee-
BBL pipeline is booked to capacity, 44.5 million cubic brugge equivalent between 29 December- 4 January.
PEG, €/MWh 18.286
metres (mcm)/day. This means shippers looking to Between 1-24 December, the premium averaged
NCG, €/MWh 18.242 capitalise on the spread between Britain and mainland just 2.723p/th. ❯❯ Page 14
GASPOOL, €/MWh 18.750
VTP, €/MWh 17.212 OUTLOOK FOR 2021
PSV, €/MWh 18.761
Central European gas
HEREN® DAILY INDICES
5 JANUARY 2021
Austria’s historic role as a marginal natural gas Azerbaijan may reduce the need for volumes from
NBP Within-day, p/th 55.778 supply source to Italy will be challenged in 2021 after Austria, potentially reshaping central European flows.
NBP D+1, p/th 55.305 the start of operations on the Trans Adriatic Pipeline Austrian storage was 77% full at the start of 2021,
Zeebrugge D+1, p/th 50.000 (TAP). holding around 3.3 billion cubic metres (bcm), which
Traditionally Italian power sector and storage de- was 0.7bcm lower than a year earlier.
TTF D+1, €/MWh 18.428
mand support Austrian prices during the summer. This is significantly above the past five years, with
PEG D+1, €/MWh 18.514 The introduction of new supply into Italy from sites normally 52%-60% full on 1 January. ❯❯ Page 15
NCG D+1, €/MWh 18.050
GASPOOL D+1, €/MWh 18.480
European day-ahead gas prices: day-ahead vs previous day
€/MWh
VTP D+1, €/MWh 17.004
25
PSV D+1, €/MWh 17.770
20
HEREN® DAILY MONTH AHEAD
INDICES 15
5 JANUARY 2021
NBP, p/th 54.937 10

Zeebrugge, p/th 47.763 5

TTF, €/MWh 18.321
0
NCG, €/MWh 17.665 NBP Zeebrugge ZTP TTF PEG NCG GASPOOL VTP CZECH GAS PSV Turkish Slovakia PVB
Gas
Source: ICIS

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

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BRITAIN NBP PRICE ASSESSMENT

5 JANUARY 2021 p/th

Contracts drop on Period Bid Offer Diff Data used

Volatility
index

warmer mid-January Day-ahead

Weekend
54.250
54.650*
54.250
54.850*
-5.450
-4.900
B
T
92.6%
96.5%

forecasts
WDNW 54.500* 55.000* -4.850 I 93.5%
BOM 53.750* 54.000* -5.675 B n/a
February '21 53.750* 53.775* -5.475 B 67.9%
March '21 50.050* 50.100* -4.613 I 65.8%
Outlook April '21 45.425* 45.625* -2.688 S 49.3%
Demand to push higher on Wednesday May '21 41.525* 41.750* -2.175 I 49.0%
Yamal cargo to arrive at Dragon on 6 January June '21 39.925* 40.125* -2.138 S 50.9%
Temperatures to lift above normal in week 2 July '21 39.825* 40.300* -1.950 I < 20 days
Q2 '21 42.300* 42.500* -2.338 T 49.4%
British gas NBP near-curve contracts erased gains made since Q3 '21 40.000* 40.200* -1.950 T 45.6%
24 December over Tuesday’s session, as mid-January forecasts Q4 '21 47.575* 47.675* -1.550 I 34.6%
warmed and multiple LNG cargoes signalled British destinations Q1 '22 50.925* 51.025* -1.550 I 32.5%
Q2 '22 38.350* 38.850* -1.150 I 26.3%
overnight.
Q3 '22 37.050* 37.550* -1.150 I 27.3%
The NBP front-month contract dropped more than 5p/th in one
Q4 '22 43.050* 43.550* -1.300 I 24.0%
trading session for only the sixth time since 2010. The major re- Q1 '23 47.500* 48.000* -1.300 I 21.8%
trace came just one session after the front-month product reached Q2 '23 36.250* 36.750* -1.250 I 25.9%
its highest value since January 2019. Q3 '23 34.950* 35.450* -1.250 I 26.8%
UK temperature forecasts for week 2 were revised up by Met- Q4 '23 41.275* 41.775* -1.075 I < 20 days
Desk models on Tuesday. Conditions are expected to recover to Gas Year 21 43.475* 43.775* -1.350 I 29.5%
around 1°C above average, likely pressuring heating demand. Gas Year 22 40.450* 40.950* -1.275 I 22.5%
Near term LNG supply prospects improved on Tuesday, with Year 2022 42.350* 42.750* -1.275 I 26.5%
two Russian cargoes added to the LNG Edge January arrival sched- Year 2023 40.000* 40.500* -1.225 I < 20 days
Summer 21 41.150* 41.350* -2.150 I 47.2%
ule for British terminals. The first delivery is due Wednesday at
Winter 21 49.250* 49.350* -1.550 B 33.5%
Dragon and the second on Saturday at Isle of Grain, according to
Summer 22 37.700* 38.200* -1.150 I 26.8%
port and ship data. Winter 22 45.275* 45.775* -1.300 I 22.8%
Bespoke products for the second half of January ceased trading Summer 23 35.600* 36.100* -1.250 I 26.4%
after 11:00 London time. Winter 23 43.325* 43.825* -1.075 I 24.8%
The NBP Day-ahead lost ground on Tuesday, despite National Summer 24 35.150* 35.650* -0.900 I 31.6%
Grid forecasting demand to rise further on Wednesday. Winter 24 44.050* 44.550* -0.700 I 23.2%
British gas demand is expected to reach 385mcm on Wednes- Summer 25 35.250* 35.750* -0.800 I 31.9%
day, 65mcm above the seasonal norm. Winter 25 44.250* 44.750* -0.600 I 22.9%
Power sector offtake is likely to rise on Wednesday as wind-
*Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
power generation is expected to drop 60% day on day to an aver-
HEREN® NBP DAY-AHEAD INDEX
age of 3.1GW, according to National Grid data.
Temperatures are forecast to remain 3°C below the seasonal January
6 January Previous Cumul.
average throughout week 1, according to MetDesk, supporting
heating demand. Price, p/th 55.305 60.016 57.602
Continued strong demand saw pipeline imports from Belgium No. of trades 478 528 1006
and the Netherlands total 89mcm on Tuesday - the highest flows Volume, m th 41.850 39.805 81.655
from the continent since the “beast from the east” cold spell in
March 2018. HEREN® NBP WITHIN-DAY INDEX
LNG sendout also rose from Monday, supplying 44mcm – up January
11mcm day on day. 5 January Previous Cumul.
Spot LNG prices in northeast Asia continued to spike on 5 Price, p/th 55.778 60.136 58.018
January, but bullish momentum failed to filter through to NBP No. of trades 160 204 364
near-curve products. Kaja Sillett
Volume, m th 16.010 16.925 32.935

UK SPARK SPREADS FOR 49.13% FUEL EFFICIENCY 5 JANUARY 2021

NBP Gas price Spark spread Spark Diff (D-1)
Period p/th £/MWh £/MWh £/MWh
Day-ahead 55.305 18.87 110.02 83.32
February '21 53.763 18.34 26.36 -0.25
HEREN CLOSING INDEX
March '21 50.075 17.09 22.85 -0.12
price Volume Number Low High Q2 '21 42.400 14.47 22.23 -0.75
Contract Hub p/th '000 therms of deals trade trade Methodology Q3 '21 40.100 13.68 22.15 0.25

Day-ahead NBP 54.092 12245 127 54.000 54.550

Index Closing Summer 21 41.250 14.08 22.18 -0.25
Window
Winter 21 49.300 16.82 22.54 0.13
Summer 22 37.950 12.95 20.04 -0.03
Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals,
I – Interpolation/extrapolation Winter 22 45.525 15.53 21.98 0.00
The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment. Summer 23 35.850 12.23 19.35 0.07

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BELGIUM ZEEBRUGGE PRICE ASSESSMENT

5 JANUARY 2021 p/th

Prices fall on forecast Period

Day-ahead
Bid
49.900*
Offer
50.100*
Diff
-3.350
Basis
-4.250
Basis diff Data used
2.100 T

of milder incoming Weekend

WDNW
49.775*
49.550*
49.975*
50.050*
-3.350
-3.300
-4.875
-4.950
1.550
1.550
I
I

weather
BOM 49.925* 50.175* -3.150 -3.825 2.525 I
February '21 47.750* 47.775* -5.475 -6.000 0.000 S
March '21 46.550* 46.600* -4.613 -3.500 0.000 S
April '21 43.425* 43.625* -3.238 -2.000 -0.550 I
Outlook
Q2 '21 42.075* 42.275* -2.263 -0.225 0.075 I
IUK exports set to stay high on Wednesday Q3 '21 41.500* 41.700* -2.050 1.500 -0.100 I
Short-term bookings may drop if basis tightens further Q4 '21 46.000* 46.100* -1.625 -1.575 -0.075 I
LNG sendout set to remain muted Q1 '22 47.400* 47.500* -1.475 -3.525 0.075 I
Q2 '22 39.300* 39.800* -1.150 0.950 0.000 I
Natural gas contracts slid at Belgium’s Zeebrugge and ZTP hubs Q3 '22 38.850* 39.350* -1.150 1.800 0.000 I
on Tuesday, as forecasts for week 2 turned milder. Gas Year 21 42.900* 43.200* -1.350 -0.575 0.000 I
MetDesk forecast temperatures would remain about 2°C below Year 2022 42.525* 42.925* -1.250 0.175 0.025 I
average for the rest of week 1, before lifting up to 1°C above nor- Summer 21 41.800* 42.000* -2.150 0.650 0.000 I
mal the following week. Winter 21 46.700* 46.800* -1.550 -2.550 0.000 S
Summer 22 39.075* 39.575* -1.150 1.375 0.000 S
Exports to Britain via the Interconnector ramped up as shippers
snapped up additional short-term capacity, reaching 42.6mcm, *Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
according to National Grid. This was an 18.6% increase from Mon-
day’s total. HEREN® ZEEBRUGGE DAY-AHEAD INDEX
Flows are likely to stay high on Wednesday, as transparency plat- January
form ENTSOG showed that shipped had booked 45mcm capacity 6 January Previous Cumul.
on the pipeline. Price, p/th 50.000 53.996 52.782
However, flows may drop off in the following sessions, after No. of trades 11 34 45
operator Interconnector UK increased within-day and Day-ahead Volume, m th 1.150 2.635 3.785
capacity tariffs to 3.5p/th for the remainder of the month. The new
costs take effect at 08:00 UK time on 6 January.
ZTP PRICE ASSESSMENT
This means that shippers are likely to utilise sunk capacity, cur- 5 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh
rently at 17.9mcm/day between 7-31 January, as long at the basis
Period Bid Offer Diff Data used
is below -2.783p/th, but it will need to fall below -6.283p/th to
Day-ahead 18.275* 18.400* -2.038 B
incentivise further short-term bookings.
February '21 17.975* 18.100* -1.800 B
Data from Belgian transmission operator Fluxys between 06:00- Q2 '21 15.850* 16.175* -0.638 B
15:00 Brussels time showed that imports from the Netherlands Summer 21 15.750* 15.875* -0.675 B
increased by 6mcm and from Germany by 5mcm. This is likely a
result of shippers withdrawing from stores in those countries for Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals,
onward export to Britain. Gretchen Ransow I – Interpolation/extrapolation
The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment.

ZTP - ZEE SPREADS €/MWh

Spread Diff
Day-ahead -0.571 -0.787
February '21 -0.016 0.252
Q2 '21 0.096 0.202
Summer 21 0.012 0.121
*A positive spread represents a higher outright price at the ZTP than at
Zeebrugge

ZTP - TTF SPREADS €/MWh

Spread Diff
Day-ahead 0.400 -0.088
February '21 0.125 0.025
Q2 '21 0.087 0.075
Summer 21 0.000 -0.012
*A positive spread represents a higher outright price at the ZTP than at
the TTF

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

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NETHERLANDS TTF PRICE ASSESSMENT

5 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Dutch prompt, Period Bid Offer Diff Data used

Volatility
index

near curve retrace Day-ahead

Weekend
WDNW
17.925*
17.650*
17.625*
17.950*
18.125*
18.100*
-1.950
-1.950
-1.925
B
I
I
71.1%
68.7%
72.3%
Monday’s gains BOM
February '21
17.900
17.900
18.000
17.925
-1.875
-1.825
B
B
n/a
63.9%
March '21 17.425* 17.450* -1.575 B 60.2%
Outlook April '21 16.275 16.300 -0.975 B 46.4%
Milder temperatures expected in week 2 May '21 15.775* 15.825* -0.663 I 41.2%
No LNG vessels due into Gate June '21 15.675* 15.725* -0.463 I 37.4%
LNG supply outlook remains weak as Asian spot LNG soars July '21 15.450* 15.500* -0.625 I < 20 Days
Q2 '21 15.900* 15.950* -0.713 B 41.7%
Dutch prompt and near curve gas contracts suffered heavy Q3 '21 15.675* 15.700* -0.625 B 39.5%
losses on Tuesday, as weather forecasts for the second week of Q4 '21 17.075* 17.100* -0.525 B 30.8%
Q1 '22 17.575* 17.600* -0.475 S 28.5%
2021 indicated conditions were expected to turn milder.
Q2 '22 14.850* 14.900* -0.350 I 22.2%
Temperatures for the remainder of this week are expected
Q3 '22 14.650* 14.700* -0.350 I 22.6%
to remain 2°C below the seasonal norm, with expectations of Q4 '22 15.725* 15.975* -0.363 I 18.6%
around 1°C above the norm for week 2, according to forecaster Q1 '23 16.275* 16.525* -0.363 I 17.8%
MetDesk. Q2 '23 14.300* 14.350* -0.125 I 16.0%
MetDesk also indicated that wind output would more than Q3 '23 14.000* 14.050* -0.125 I < 20 Days
double in week 2 to 2.7GW, though still at below average levels. Gas Year 21 16.050* 16.075* -0.425 I 25.7%
Warmer temperatures and higher wind output act bearishly Year 2022 15.700* 15.800* -0.388 I 22.5%
on prompt prices by reducing gas demand for heating and power Year 2023 15.000* 15.050* -0.163 B 14.4%
generation. Year 2024 14.650 14.750 -0.200 B 12.9%
Year 2025 14.175* 14.675* -0.275 I < 20 Days
Dutch gas demand was expected to increase by 5mcm to
Summer 21 15.800* 15.825* -0.663 B 40.6%
204mcm on Tuesday, according to ICIS collated data, as a result
Winter 21 17.325* 17.350* -0.500 B 29.6%
of below average temperatures currently in the Netherlands. Summer 22 14.750* 14.800* -0.350 B 22.3%
Higher demand meant the gas system was trending short, Winter 22 16.000* 16.250* -0.363 I 18.2%
though no balancing action was required by Dutch gas system Summer 23 14.150* 14.200* -0.125 I 15.9%
operator GTS. Winter 23 15.400* 15.900* -0.125 I 12.4%
ICIS data indicated LNG sendout was expected to remain low Summer 24 13.600* 14.100* -0.275 I 13.7%
at 4mcm on Tuesday, contributing to the system being slightly Winter 24 15.075* 15.575* -0.275 I 13.3%
short. Summer 25 13.350* 13.850* -0.275 I 15.0%
Sendout is set to remain low in the coming weeks as Asian Winter 25 14.950* 15.450* -0.275 I 16.2%
spot LNG prices continued to rise further, diverting vessels away
*Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
from Europe to Asian shores as a result. Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals,
This is in addition to LNG Edge data indicating that there are I – Interpolation/extrapolation
The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment.
currently no vessels expected to dock at the Gate terminal.
Elsewhere, contracts on the curve followed the prompt in
shedding value as both carbon and coal futures registered session HEREN® TTF DAY-AHEAD INDEX
on session losses. January
The EUA December ’21 contract closed the day down at 6 January Previous Cumul.
€32.89/tCO2e. Arlind Neziri Price, €/MWh 18.428 19.917 19.205
No. of trades 374 460 834
Volume, MWh 953,640 1,041,240 1,994,880

TTF PRICE ASSESSMENT $/MMBTU NBP PRICE ASSESSMENT $/MMBTU

Period Bid Offer Diff Period Bid Offer Diff
Day-ahead 6.452 6.461 -0.693 Day-ahead 7.384 7.384 -0.725
Weekend 6.353 6.524 -0.693 Weekend 7.439 7.466 -0.650
February '21 6.448 6.457 -0.649 February '21 7.318 7.321 -0.729

HEREN CLOSING INDEX

price €/ Volume Number Low High
Contract Hub MWh MWh of deals trade trade Methodology

18.000 18.200 Index Closing

Day-ahead TTF 18.142 44400 18 Window

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

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NCG PRICE ASSESSMENT

GERMANY
5 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Prompt contracts correct Period

Day-ahead
Bid
17.150*
Offer
17.650*
Diff
-2.050
Volatility
Data used index
S 74.1%
downward on NCG and Weekend
WDNW
17.100*
17.100*
17.600*
17.600*
-2.050
-1.888
I
I
74.4%
66.6%

GASPOOL markets BOM

February '21
March '21
17.325
17.400
17.050
17.550
17.450
17.150
-1.838
-1.825
-1.638
B
B
B
n/a
68.3%
63.3%
April '21 16.625* 16.650* -0.700 I 40.3%
Outlook May '21 16.125* 16.175* -0.850 I 42.1%
Temperatures in line with seasonal norms June '21 16.025* 16.075* -0.700 I 40.4%
Low wind generation to support gas-for-power demand July '21 15.825* 16.325* -0.613 I < 20 Days
No LNG arrivals expected at Gate in coming sessions Q2 '21 16.250* 16.300* -0.750 B 40.9%
Q3 '21 15.975* 16.100* -0.613 S 39.8%
Q4 '21 17.250* 17.300* -0.463 S 30.5%
Prompt contracts on Germany’s NCG and GASPOOL OTC natural gas mar-
Q1 '22 17.550* 17.600* -0.513 I 29.1%
kets shed value on Tuesday, correcting downward after reaching levels not Q2 '22 15.075* 15.225* -0.263 I 21.4%
seen since 2019 on Monday. Q3 '22 14.775* 14.925* -0.275 I 21.9%
A public holiday in three of Germany’s federal states on Wednesday was a Q4 '22 15.775* 15.850* -0.500 I 21.2%
key bearish driver. Q1 '23 16.325* 16.400* -0.500 I 20.8%
The NCG Day-ahead product opened the session at €18.700/MWh, down Q2 '23 14.500* 14.750* -0.100 I 15.4%
Q3 '23 14.200* 14.450* -0.100 I < 20 Days
by €0.750/MWh on Monday’s assessed price, while the Gaspool product
Year 2022 15.800* 15.900* -0.388 I 22.4%
opened at €18.700/MWh, down by €1.150/MWh on Monday. Year 2023 14.950* 15.450* -0.225 I 16.0%
Both products shed further value through the session. Year 2024 14.775* 15.250* -0.263 I < 20 Days
Weather forecasts from Metdesk see temperatures through the remainder Summer 21 16.125 16.200 -0.688 B 40.3%
of week 1 slightly below average, rising to slightly above in week 2 but no Winter 21 17.400* 17.450* -0.488 B 29.9%
extreme movements either way. Summer 22 14.925* 15.075* -0.275 S 21.7%
Winter 22 16.050* 16.125* -0.500 S 21.0%
This suggests temperature-related demand from domestic heating will Summer 23 14.350* 14.600* -0.100 S 15.6%
remain steady through coming sessions. Winter 23 15.600* 16.075* -0.125 I 12.9%
While cooler weather is expected in coming sessions in other markets such Summer 24 13.975* 14.450* -0.275 I 14.3%
as the UK’s NBP, the Dutch TTF is likely to experience similar conditions to Winter 24 15.575* 16.050* -0.275 I 13.3%
Germany, which suggests locational spreads are unlikely to significantly widen. Summer 25 13.750* 14.250* -0.275 I 14.6%
Winter 25 15.350* 15.850* -0.275 I 15.9%
Meanwhile, significantly below-average levels of wind through the rest of
*Indicative bid/offers
the week will limit opportunities for power generation using offshore wind.
Consequently, gas-for-power demand will likely provide support to Ger- GASPOOL PRICE ASSESSMENT
man Day-ahead contracts as gas-fired generation steps in to make up the 5 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh
shortfall. Volatility
Germany continued to export gas to the Netherlands on Thursday, at a rate Period Bid Offer Diff Data used Index
Day-ahead 17.500* 17.975* -2.163 S 72.5%
of 32mcm/day, down by 1mcm/day session on session.
Weekend 17.450* 17.925* -2.163 I 70.3%
Net exports to the Netherlands are likely to continue in coming sessions, as WDNW 17.425* 17.900* -1.825 I 63.6%
no LNG cargoes are expected to arrive at Gate over the next fortnight accord- BOM 17.650 17.850 -1.775 B n/a
ing to LNG Edge data. Ed Martin February '21 17.625 17.650 -1.888 B 66.2%
March '21 17.075* 17.550* -1.450 I 60.8%
HEREN® NCG DAY-AHEAD INDEX April '21 16.450* 16.525* -0.700 I 40.6%
May '21 15.950* 16.050* -0.838 I 41.8%
January June '21 15.850* 15.950* -0.688 I 41.0%
6 January Previous Cumul.
July '21 15.550* 16.025* -0.738 I < 20 Days
Price, €/MWh 18.050 19.526 18.829 Q2 '21 16.075* 16.175* -0.738 I 39.3%
No. of trades 166 181 347 Q3 '21 15.825* 15.975* -0.738 I 45.1%
Q4 '21 17.250* 17.300* -0.463 I 30.5%
Volume, MWh 387,000 432,720 819,720
Q1 '22 17.550* 17.600* -0.513 I 29.1%
Q2 '22 15.075* 15.225* -0.263 I 21.4%
Q3 '22 14.775* 14.925* -0.275 I 21.9%
Data used key: B – bid/offer, Q4 '22 15.775* 15.850* -0.500 I 21.2%
HEREN® GASPOOL DAY-AHEAD INDEX
T – Transaction, S – Spread, Q1 '23 16.325* 16.400* -0.500 I 20.8%
F – Fundamentals, January
Q2 '23 14.500* 14.750* -0.100 I 15.4%
I – Interpolation/extrapolation 6 January Previous Cumul.
Q3 '23 14.200* 14.450* -0.100 I < 20 Days
Price, €/MWh 18.480 19.800 19.218 Year 2022 15.800* 15.900* -0.388 I 22.4%
The key codes represent the
primary data type used to make No. of trades 88 105 193 Year 2023 14.950* 15.450* -0.225 I 16.0%
the assessment. Volume, MWh 213,960 271,080 485,040 Year 2024 14.775* 15.250* -0.263 I < 20 Days
Summer 21 15.950* 16.075* -0.738 B 41.6%
Winter 21 17.400* 17.450* -0.488 I 29.9%
GERMAN SPARK SPREADS 5 JANUARY 2021 Summer 22 14.925* 15.075* -0.275 I 21.7%
Winter 22 16.050* 16.125* -0.500 I 21.0%
TTF Spark spread Spark Diff (D-1)
Summer 23 14.350* 14.600* -0.100 I 15.6%
Period €/MWh €/MWh €/MWh
Winter 23 15.600* 16.075* -0.125 I 12.9%
Day-ahead 18.43 15.64 2.14 Summer 24 13.975* 14.450* -0.275 I 14.3%
February '21 17.91 11.94 -0.29 Winter 24 15.575* 16.050* -0.275 I 13.3%
Summer 25 13.750* 14.250* -0.275 I 14.6%
Q2 '21 15.93 10.46 -0.08
Winter 25 15.350* 15.850* -0.275 I 15.9%
Year 2022 15.75 17.39 -0.51 *Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades

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CENTRAL EUROPE VTP PRICE ASSESSMENT

5 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Prompt and near curve Period

Day-ahead
Bid
16.950*
Offer
17.000*
Diff
-0.900
Data used
B

slide as Monday’s gains BOM

February '21
16.775*
16.775*
16.900*
16.825*
-0.975
-1.450 B
I

retraced in line with TTF March '21

April '21
16.375*
16.925*
16.650*
17.075*
-1.500
-1.013
B
I
Q2 '21 16.700* 16.775* -0.700 I
Outlook
 ational holiday in Austria, Slovakia on 6 January
N Q3 '21 16.400* 16.425* -0.700 I
East-west temperature disparity to even out in week 2 Year 2022 16.200* 16.350* -0.363 B
High Austrian wind output in week 2 could provide prompt downside Summer 21 16.550* 16.600* -0.700 B
Winter 21 17.375* 17.475* -0.538 B
Prompt and near-curve gas contract prices on central and eastern European Summer 22 15.675* 15.800* -0.350 I
markets plummeted on Tuesday as Monday’s gains were retraced in line with *Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
the Dutch TTF.
The public holidays in Austria and Slovakia on 6 January may have added
additional bearish sentiment on the back of lower industrial demand. HEREN® VTP DAY-AHEAD INDEX
However, losses on the Austrian VTP Day-ahead product were significantly January
more muted than the Dutch TTF, likely as the temperature disparity between 6 January Previous Cumul.
the east and west of Europe is expected to begin to even out as the northwest Price, €/MWh 17.004 18.394 17.739
region warms up after a cold spell, narrowing the spread between the markets. No. of trades 27 22 49
Forecasts by WSI were revised downwards slightly to expect cooler tem- Volume, MWh 39,600 44,400 84,000
peratures in Austria and the Czech Republic for the rest of the week, which
could lift prompt contracts in coming sessions.
However, the overall picture for the month expects regional temperatures CZECH REPUBLIC PRICE ASSESSMENT
to remain relatively mild, which should cap significant gains on the prompt. 5 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh
By 4 January, Austrian storage levels had fallen by nearly 3% in the week Period Bid Offer Diff Data used
since 28 December, with fullness sitting just below 75%. Day-ahead 17.525* 17.575* -1.725 B
However, domestic storage still remains well above historical average so BOM 17.350* 17.775* -1.338 I
this should have little impact on price, especially as access to Ukrainian storage February '21 17.425* 17.750* -1.913 S
continues to weigh on prompt and near-curve contracts on CEE markets. March '21 17.025* 17.500* -1.475 I
The VTP Day-ahead discount to its Italian PSV equivalent has stayed be- April '21 16.700* 17.200* -0.638 I
low the threshold for short term flows to be profitable since 23 December Q2 '21 16.375* 16.800* -0.675 I
as the the first flows along the Trans Adriatic Pipeline weigh on Italian prices.
Q3 '21 16.175* 16.550* -0.675 I
Daisy Jennings-Gray
Year 2022 16.050* 16.350* -0.388 S

UAVTP GAS PRICE ASSESSMENT 5 JANUARY 2021 Summer 21 16.275* 16.675* -0.675 B
Winter 21 17.550* 17.750* -0.488 S
UAH/Kscm €/MWh *Indicative bid/offers

Period Bid Offer Diff Data used Midpoint Diff

SLOVAKIA PRICE ASSESSMENT
February '21 6,720.000* 6,880.000* 80.000 B 18.453 0.441 5 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh
Period Bid Offer Diff Data used
Day-ahead 17.150* 17.500* -0.900 S
UA-BORDER GAS PRICE ASSESSMENT 5 JANUARY 2021
BOM 16.950* 17.425* -0.975 I
UAH/Kscm €/MWh February '21 16.900* 17.400* -1.450 I
Period Bid Offer Diff Data used Midpoint Diff
February '21 6,925.000* 7,075.000* 80.000 I 18.996 0.448
MGP PRICE ASSESSMENT
5 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh
Period Bid Offer Diff Data used
Day-ahead 15.950* 16.425* -0.900 I

Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals,

I – Interpolation/extrapolation
The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment.

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FRANCE PEG PRICE ASSESSMENT

5 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

PEG contracts collapse Period

Day-ahead
Bid
18.325*
Offer
18.350*
Diff
-1.900
Data used
B

amid bearish energy mix BOM

February '21
17.950*
18.025*
18.050*
18.100*
-1.975
-1.725
B
B
March '21 17.475* 17.625* -1.513 B
Outlook April '21 15.500* 16.000* -0.975 I
Temperatures well below average for the rest of week 1
Q2 '21 15.850* 16.025* -0.750 B
Low nuclear availability and EDF strikes may support gas prices in January
Q3 '21 15.750* 15.775* -0.563 I
23 LNG cargoes to deliver into French terminals in January
Q4 '21 17.025* 17.100* -0.525 B
French natural contracts turned bearish on Tuesday tracking the losses of Year 2022 15.675* 15.950* -0.350 B
the wider energy mix after the bull run seen in the previous day. Summer 21 15.800* 15.900* -0.663 B
The Day-ahead contract lost €1.90/MWh from Monday’s session, when it Winter 21 17.075* 17.325* -0.563 B
surpassed €20/MWh for the first time since January 2019. Summer 22 14.725* 14.850* -0.338 B
A trader told ICIS that several factors played on the bearish side pressur- *Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
ing prices across the energy mix, including the announcement of a further
lockdown in the UK and a “disappointing” OPEC+ meeting. HEREN® PEG DAY-AHEAD INDEX
The same source also noted that gas prices might have been “a bit over- January
priced” in previous sessions. 6 January Previous Cumul.
The weather outlook for the French gas market, however, remains bullish Price, €/MWh 18.514 20.037 18.960
as MetDesk indicated that temperatures should remain 4°C below seasonal No. of trades 127 97 224
norms for the rest of week 1 and frequent frosts are also expected across the Volume, MWh 266,300 110,410 376,710
country.
Data from system operators GRTgaz and Terega showed that gas demand
will average 246mcm/day for the remainder of the week, up from 196mcm/
day recorded in the previous week. Gas consumption reached an average of
191mcm/day on 6-10 January last year.
Lower nuclear availability expected in January could partially support gas
prices in the coming weeks, as it might increase demand for gas-fired genera-
tion. Nuclear availbaility is scheduled at 85% for the rest of January, which is
7 percentage points below the 2016-20 average.
Risk of new strikes at EDF nuclear plants could also curb down nuclear out-
put in January as workers unions warned it will be “a month of mobilisation”.
On the supply side, a Russian LNG cargo is expected to deliver into the
Montoir terminal on Monday, according to LNG Edge. Data from port au-
thorities showed that 23 vessels are expected to berth at French terminals this
month. Andrea Battaglia

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SPAIN PVB PRICE ASSESSMENT

5 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

PVB Day-ahead contract Period

Day-ahead
Bid
31.525*
Offer
32.025*
Diff
4.100
Data used
I

reaches highest value February '21

March '21
22.875*
19.050*
23.375*
19.525*
0.200
-1.575
S
I

since March 2018 Q2 '21

Q3 '21
16.775*
16.525*
17.250*
17.025*
-0.713
-0.625
I
I
Year 2022 16.600* 17.075* -0.388 I
Outlook ❯❯ Trades
S pain’s first full-cargo LNG reload to take place since July 2018
Wind power to generate 3GW on Wednesday - 3.1GW below average Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals,
Spain will celebrate its national Epiphany holiday on 6 January I – Interpolation/extrapolation
The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment.

The Spanish natural gas Day-ahead contract recorded its highest close since
March 2018, following yet another undersupplied gas system.
PVB Day-ahead recorded a €4/MWh intraday swing during the morning of
the session, trading up from €31/MWh to €35/MWh.
The prompt contract eventually closed at €31.775/MWh, its highest value
since 1 March 2018 – at €32.750/MWh according to ICIS data. The Spanish
contract was assessed €13.437/MWh above its French PEG counterpart.
Enagas GTS undertook a purchase balancing action for the second suc-
cessive day on Tuesday, following another undersupplied Spanish gas system.
PVB BOM dealt at €28.150/MWh in the early afternoon, around €10/MWh
above the benchmark TTF equivalent contract, according to ICIS observations.
Ahead on the curve, the Summer ’21 contract traded at €17/MWh, €1.100/
MWh above its TTF counterpart.
On the supply side, the 136,500cbm Mraweh, on a long-term charter to
Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC LNG, is currently berthed at Spain’s Huelva terminal for
a cargo reload. This will be the first full-cargo reload from a Spanish terminal
since July 2018, according to LNG Edge data.
The 180,000cbm Traiano Knutsen is expected to arrive at the Huelva LNG
terminal on 6 January after loading a cargo from Cameron, United States.
Spain received 59 laden LNG vessels from the United States last year, nine
more than in 2019, data from LNG Edge showed. Cem Bektas

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PSV PRICE ASSESSMENT ITALY

5 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Period Bid Offer Diff Data used

Volatility
index Spot drops
ahead of bank
Day-ahead 17.200 17.200 -1.713 B 83.9%
BOM 17.500 17.900 -1.313 B n/a

holiday
February '21 17.825 17.900 -1.663 B 61.7%
March '21 17.050* 17.425* -1.563 B 62.2%
April '21 16.975* 17.450* -1.175 S < 20 Days
Q2 '21 16.875* 17.175* -0.738 B 37.8% Outlook
Q3 '21 16.550* 16.575* -0.650 I 37.3%  ank holiday on Wednesday weighs on demand
B
Q4 '21 17.950* 18.150* -0.488 I 31.6% PSV front-month discount to TTF remains firm
Q1 '22 18.400* 18.500* -0.488 I < 20 Days Three LNG cargoes to reach the Adriatic terminal
Gas Year 21 17.075* 17.225* -0.413 I 25.5% by 9 January
Year 2022 16.625* 16.875* -0.363 S 21.7%
Year 2023 15.800* 16.200* -0.163 I < 20 Days
The Italian natural gas PSV spot significantly
dropped session on session on Tuesday as a bank
Summer 21 16.725* 16.875* -0.688 B 37.3%
holiday in the country the following day shrunk
Winter 21 18.175* 18.325* -0.488 B 29.9%
demand expectations. Losses were also in line with
Summer 22 15.950* 16.100* -0.350 I 22.6%
other European hubs.
*Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
Demand for Wednesday was forecast to hover
Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals, I – Interpolation/extrapolation. The key at around 275mcm, Italian TSO SNAM Rete Gas
codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment. 16:00 Rome time report data showed. This was
more than 30mcm below Tuesday.
HEREN® PSV DAY-AHEAD INDEX Further out, curve products retraced the previ-
January ous session’s gains, following losses in the wider
6 January Previous Cumul. energy complex.
Price, €/MWh 17.770 19.130 18.337 The PSV front month remained at discount to
No. of trades 108 110 218 its Dutch TTF equivalent as Azeri imports on the
Volume, MWh 206,160 147,480 353,640 TAP pipe route eased the Italian supply margins for
the remainder of the winter. The PSV front-month
ITALIAN SPARK SPREADS FOR 49.13% FUEL EFFICIENCY discount to the TTF reached its record high on 31
5 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh December at €1.488/MWh.
Period PSV Spark spread Spark diff A tighter supply picture for the Dutch market
February '21 17.86 24.07 -1.06 for the short to mid-term, according ICIS analysis,
March '21 17.24 19.51 -0.22 is likely to keep the TTF front month above the PSV
April '21 17.21 14.42 -0.15 equivalent going forward.
Q2 '21 17.03 16.87 -1.15
On the supply side, three Qatari LNG vessels are
expected to dock at the Adriatic terminal by 9 Janu-
Q3 '21 16.56 23.11 -0.51
ary, LNG Edge data showed. Marta Del Buono
Q4 '21 18.05 22.09 -0.68
Q1 '22 18.45 21.15 0.10
Summer 21 16.80 19.98 -0.84
Year 2022 16.75 20.76 -0.11

ITALIAN FUNDAMENTALS SUMMARY, MCM/DAY - 4 JAN 2021

Day on Day Year on Year
Daily Total Difference % Change Difference % Change
Parameter
Production 1.84 -0.03 -1.60 -9.38 -83.60
Import 154.66 24.15 18.50 52.50 51.39
LNG Sendout 21.49 6.14 40.00 -9.57 -30.82
Storage into System 108.06 30.32 39.00 0.02 0.02
Supply total 286.05 60.58 26.87 33.56 13.29
Internal Demand 290.84 50.34 20.93 44.51 18.07
Exports 1.64 -0.44 -21.15 0.94 132.76
Storage from System 0.00 0.00 - 0.00 -
Demand total 292.48 49.90 20.57 45.45 18.40
*
estimated.

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TURKISH GAS PRICE ASSESSMENT 5 JANUARY 2021

TL/kscm $/MWh €/MWh $/MMBtu
Data
Period Bid Offer Diff used Midpoint Diff Midpoint Diff Midpoint Diff
Day-ahead 1,315.000* 1,335.000* -3.000 I 16.840 -0.021 13.713 -0.034 4.935 -0.006
*
Indicative bid/offers

Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals, I – Interpolation/extrapolation. The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment.

EXCHANGE RATES 5 JANUARY 2021 £ TURKEY

Period TL € $
Day-ahead 0.190 0.889 0.724 Turkey to receive more
Source: ICIS, based on Bloomberg data
LNG as demand up
NO TURKISH GAS TRADES REPORTED Outlook
BOTAS may seek more LNG winter cargoes

The Turkish incumbent BOTAS was expecting to receive at least three LNG cargoes in
the first half of January as demand has been picking up.
The deliveries will be made on a contractual basis from Algeria and Nigeria and also on
a spot basis from the US’ Sabine Pass.
Demand has been increasing day on day by an estimated 10mcm/day to 194mcm/
day on Monday and system withdrawals may rise further on the back of strong winter
consumption.
A market source said the incumbent BOTAS may be looking to buy more LNG but
added that it could be priced out of the market as the cost to source cargoes has been
soaring thanks to strong Asian demand. Aura Sabadus

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Across the markets Back to
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Month-ahead price assessment snapshot: 5 January Month-ahead price assessment (past 30 days)
€/MWh €/MWh NBP Zeebrugge
TTF NCG
25 22

20 20

15 18

10 16

5 14

0 12
NBP Zee- ZTP TTF PEG NCG GAS- VTP Czech PVB PSV 18 Nov 26 Nov 04 Dec 14 Dec 22 Dec 05 Jan
brugge POOL 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: ICIS Source: ICIS

Front season price assessment (past 30 days) TTF quarter+2 vs gas oil 0.1%
€/MWh €/MWh Barges FOB ARA, $/tonne
NBP Zeebrugge
18 20.0 700
TTF NCG TTF
Gas oil 0.1%
17.5 600
16
15.0 500

14 12.5 400

10.0 300
12
7.5 200

10 5.0 100
18 Nov 26 Nov 04 Dec 14 Dec 22 Dec 05 Jan Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: ICIS Source: ICIS

East Asia LNG vs TTF front-month historic closes

$/mmbtu EAX month+1 TTF month+1
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2019 2020 2021
Source: ICIS

CONTINENTAL PRICE ASSESSMENTS 5 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Zeebrugge TTF NBP
Period Bid Offer Diff Bid Offer Diff Bid Offer Diff
Day-ahead 18.871* 18.947* -1.251 17.925* 17.950* -1.950 20.516 20.516 -2.043
Weekend 18.823* 18.898* -1.250 17.650* 18.125* -1.950 20.666* 20.742* -1.834
WDNW 18.737* 18.926* -1.231 17.625* 18.100* -1.925 20.608* 20.798* -1.815
BOM 18.877* 18.971* -1.175 17.900 18.000 -1.875 20.323* 20.417* -2.127
February '21 18.048* 18.058* -2.053 17.900 17.925 -1.825 20.316* 20.326* -2.051
March '21 17.585* 17.604* -1.726 17.425* 17.450* -1.575 18.907* 18.926* -1.725
April '21 16.396* 16.472* -1.207 16.275 16.300 -0.975 17.151* 17.227* -0.999
Q2 '21 15.879* 15.954* -0.839 15.900* 15.950* -0.713 15.963* 16.039* -0.867
Q3 '21 15.638* 15.713* -0.758 15.675* 15.700* -0.625 15.073* 15.148* -0.721
Q4 '21 17.307* 17.345* -0.596 17.075* 17.100* -0.525 17.900* 17.938* -0.567
Q1 '22 17.807* 17.844* -0.538 17.575* 17.600* -0.475 19.131* 19.168* -0.565
Q2 '22 14.741* 14.929* -0.417 14.850* 14.900* -0.350 14.385* 14.572* -0.418
Q3 '22 14.550* 14.737* -0.416 14.650* 14.700* -0.350 13.876* 14.063* -0.417
Gas Year 21 16.104* 16.216* -0.492 16.050* 16.075* -0.425 16.320* 16.432* -0.492
Year 2022 15.938* 16.088* -0.454 15.700* 15.800* -0.388 15.873* 16.023* -0.463
Year 2023 n/a n/a n/a 15.000* 15.050* -0.163 14.898* 15.084* -0.444
Year 2024 n/a n/a n/a 14.650 14.750 -0.200 n/a n/a n/a
Year 2025 n/a n/a n/a 14.175* 14.675* -0.275 n/a n/a n/a
Summer 21 15.763* 15.838* -0.796 15.800* 15.825* -0.663 15.518* 15.593* -0.796
Winter 21 17.557* 17.595* -0.567 17.325* 17.350* -0.500 18.516* 18.554* -0.566
Summer 22 14.645* 14.833* -0.417 14.750* 14.800* -0.350 14.130* 14.317* -0.417
Winter 22 n/a n/a n/a 16.000* 16.250* -0.363 16.917* 17.104* -0.471
Summer 23 n/a n/a n/a 14.150* 14.200* -0.125 13.259* 13.446* -0.455
Winter 23 n/a n/a n/a 15.400* 15.900* -0.125 16.083* 16.269* -0.386
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Supply/demand data Back to
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British storage British LDZ and NTS demand

mcm mcm NTS day-ahead LDZ
3,000 400
2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
2017/18 2016/17 350
2,500
300
2,000
250
1,500 200
150
1,000
100
500 50
0 0
1 Oct 1 Jan 31 Mar 30 Jun 29 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: National Grid Source: National Grid

Sources of British supply: 5 January 2021 OCM SAP vs NTS demand

Interconnector mcm NTS demand SAP p/th
8.84% 400 80
Storage
7.54% 350 70
BBL
11.33% 300 60
UKCS 250 50
23.87%
200 40
LNG 150 30
7.62%
100 20
50 10
0 0
Norway 07 Dec 13 Dec 19 Dec 25 Dec 30 Dec 04 Jan
40.80% 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: National Grid and Gassco Source: National Grid

LNG end of day flows BBL flows vs prompt NBP/TTF differential

mcm Isle of Grain Milford Haven - Dragon mcm BBL flows NBP/TTF differential €/MWh
Grain NTS2 Milford Haven - South Hook 50
100 2.5

80 40 2.0

60 30 1.5

40 20 1.0

20 10 0.5

0 0 0.0
05 Dec 11 Dec 17 Dec 23 Dec 29 Dec 03 Jan 11 Nov 20 Nov 01 Dec 10 Dec 18 Dec 31 Dec
2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020
Source: National Grid Source: National Grid and ICIS

Interconnector flows vs IUK shipper nominations Prompt basis vs Interconnector flows

mcm Actual flow Day-ahead nominations (18:00) mcm Actual flow NBP-Zeebrugge day-ahead spread p/th
NBP-TTF day-ahead spread
35 35 12
30 30 10
25
25 8
20
20 6
15
15 4
10
5 10 2

0 5 0
-5 0 -2
02 Dec 08 Dec 14 Dec 24 Dec 29 Dec 04 Jan 03 Nov 27 Nov 07 Dec 17 Dec 04 Jan
2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: Interconnector UK Source: Interconnector UK and ICIS

Data sourced from ICIS, National Grid, ICE Endex and Interconnector UK

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News Back to
contents

Market impact of new Czech This is because the pipeline potentially

could provides a new route for volumes from

pipeline set to stay muted
The launch of a new gas pipeline in the Czech
Republic is likely to have a limited impact on
cross-border flows and market liquidity until
connecting infrastructure in Germany comes
online and is fully utilised.
The pipeline began operations on 1 January
2021 and has a capacity of 27.5 billion cubic
metres/year, according to Czech grid operator
NET4GAS. It runs for 150km between newly
constructed distribution hubs at Hora Svate
Kateriny on the German border in the north
and Primda on the German border in the west.
MUTED MARKET IMPACT
The pipeline’s impact on both flows and over-
the-counter (OTC) market liquidity has so far
been muted.
Czech exports to Germany are broadly in
line with December’s levels of 70-80 million
cubic metres (mcm)/day, while imports have
been between 108-115mcm/day since 28 De-
cember, according to TSO data collated by ICIS.
Meanwhile, Czech liquidity has remained
focused on the Day-ahead contract so far in
January, and no significant increase in traded
volumes is apparent in trade data seen by ICIS.
FUTURE INCREASE IN ACTIVITY
The pipeline’s impact is likely to stay limited
until the volumes required to take advantage
of the expanded capacity start to flow to
neighbouring Germany.
Key to this will be when the Nord Stream
2 pipeline connecting Russia and Germany is
completed. Nord Stream 2 , which will not be
until the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is ex-
pected to roughly double German gas imports
from Russia to 110bcm/year., is completed.
Germany’s EUGAL pipeline, to reach the Megal
pipeline, which runs from Austria through Ger-
many and France.
However the EUGAL pipeline’s second
string will not come on stream until the sec-
ond quarter, and is itself expected to remain
underutilised until gas starts to flow through
Nord Stream 2.
Nord Stream 2 itself could plausibly enter
operation in 2021, as pipelay operations in
German and Danish waters have resumed, but
a significant ramp-up period is expected and
questions remain over US sanctions.
The new Czech pipeline forms part of the
Capacity4Gas project, which includes upgrades
to existing infrastructure such as compressor
stations and border points, as well as the con-
struction of new infrastructure. Phase one of
Capacity4Gas was completed in 2019, bringing
additional capacity of around 70mcm/day, while
phase two is set to be completed in 2021 and
will bring a further 50mcm/day. Ed Martin

Global Energy Forum

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secure, resilient, and
sustainable future
19-22 January 2021 | Online

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insights to help you navigate through market uncertainties and the
AGENDA
TIME
TYPE
DAY 1

ICIS Global Energy Forum

SGT 16:10-16:2
GMT 08:10-08: 5 Live stream
25 Middle East
crude producers
15 mins – navigating

wider energy transition into 2021 and beyond.

the new normal

Day 1: APAC • Geopolitica

Middle East
l tensions and
the impact of
the coronaviru
• OPEC+ cuts s on the
19 January 2021, 3:00pm to 5:05pm SGT• Challenges forandthetheMiddle
fallout from
2020 price War
East as the key
supplier to Asia
SGT 16:25-16:4 James Dennis HERE CLICK
– SeniorTO
Editor Manager,
GMT 08:25-08: 5 Panel REGISTER
Crude Oil, ICIS
55 discussion Oil in a sustainabl
mean? e world – what
does the transition
30 mins to cleaner oil

AGENDA • How has the

role of energy
transition to companies
cleaner oil? changed in
• How can energy the world’s
TIME TYPE DAY 1
• What challenges companies emerge as

Topics include:
does this pose winners in
SGT 14:50-15:00 On demand Introduction to your virtual ICIS conference for the market? the transition?
Moderator:
GMT 06:50-07:00 Watch these short, informal videos, designed to give Sophie
you the
Udubasceanu
Panelists: Li – Global
tools and know-how to transform your virtual ICIS Li –
conference
Distillates, ICIS Head of Energy Analytics, Crude Editor, ICIS
experience. China Crude
Patricia Tao &
• Welcome and introduction from virtual conference – Head
chairof Energy
James Dennis Analytics, China
• How to watch content – Senior Editor Refining, ICIS
Ajay Parmar
• How to meet people – Senior Analyst, Manager, Crude Oil, ICIS
Richard Price Global Crude,
• How to ask questions – Deputy Global ICIS
Crude Editor,
• How to personalise your experience
LNG stream ICIS

• Crude oil: how the market can recover from its recent turmoil?
SGT 15:30-16:0
• How to join a discussion group
GMT 07:30-08: 0 Live stream
00 The global LNG
Crude stream 30 mins market

SGT 15:00-15:30 Live stream Crude oil: How the market can recover from its recent turmoil
Ben Wetherall
–
GMT 07:00-07:30 30 mins Ed Cox – Global Market Development Director,
EDT 02:00-02:30 • 2021: More LNG Editor, ICIS
ICIS
• Oil market turbulence in 2020 • Global scope for demand
optimism?
• The 2021 demand recovery – when will ittrade
• Analysis
flows and the
happen? outlook for US
• Beyond coronavirus of Asian LNG LNG production
and European

• How has the role of energy companies changed in the world’s

gas price correlation
SGT 16:10-16:5 10 mins: Screen s
Ajay Parmar – Senior Analyst, Global Crude, ICIS break
GMT 08:10-08: 5 Live stream
Richard
55 Price – Deputy Global Crude Editor, ICIS
LNG markets
in the shadow
45 mins of Covid
SGT 15:30-16:00 Live stream China’s crude oil demand outlook amid refinery expansions and
GMT 07:30-08:00 restructuring in the 14th five-year Asianplan
LNG spot prices
30 mins 2020, which have recovered
were triggered strongly from
induced weak by the global record lows
demand. gas in H1
• What is China’s crude oil import demand next
remains under threat
year and the price recoveryglut and coronavirus-
how
But
much distillates will it export?recovery with questions and market
rebalancin

transition to cleaner oil?

in key Asia-Pacific over the pace g
• China refining sector: What lies ahead? markets. of demand
• Quenching the downstream China petrochemical
and east thirst
Asian market
15 mins developments
Li Li – Head of Energy Analytics, China Crude & Distillates, ICIS
Patricia Tao – Head of EnergyAlex Analytics,
Siow –China Refining, ICIS
Senior
• Chinese market LNG Analyst, ICIS
10 mins: Screen break • Japan, South developments
Korea and Taiwan and demand outlook
demand outlook

• Global LNG trade flows and the outlook for US LNG production
• The path to net zero: Modelling the EU power system to 2050 View agenda

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News Back to
contents

DAILY OIL SUMMARY Ostroleka to add 750MW to

Crude futures showed some bullishness on Poland’s CCGT capacity by 2025
Tuesday, with gains of between 3-5% in the
session. OPEC resumed its virtual meeting Construction of Poland’s planned Ostroleka to increase from 3GW in 2021 to 10.5GW by
with members divided on February output C plant is to add 750MW of gas-fired power 2030, while coal-fired generation will halve by
levels and plans for future cuts amid the new capacity to the Polish power mix by the end of the end of the decade.
phase of the pandemic. The organisation
2024, Polish state-owned gas supplier PGNiG The planned Ostroleka plant therefore rep-
decided to increase production by 75,000
bbl/day in February and the same amount in told ICIS on Monday. resents 24% of 2021’s forecast total gas-fired
March, according to preliminary reports. PGNiG confirmed the figures, which had power capacity.
The much hoped for vaccine programmes been stated in letter of intent published on the Poland is the only EU state that has refused
were beginning to be rolled out in more company website in September 2020. to commit to carbon neutrality by 2050, with
countries, however, many obstacles to the In late December, PGNiG confirmed joint coal expected to represent 43% of Poland’s
operation were emerging. investment with Polish utility PKN Orlen in 2021 power capacity.
Boris Johnson has announced England the project and the two companies signed an
will return to lockdown from Tuesday, with annex to their existing gas supply contract to PGNiG GAS SUPPLY
expectations it will last until March.
account for future demand added by the Os- With PGNiG’s 10 billion cubic metre (bcm)/
The runoff election for the two US senate
seats in Georgia will get underway with the troleka plant. year supply long-term contract with Russia’s
Democrats holding a tiny lead, which is within The annex extends PGNiG’s gas supply to Gazprom expiring at the end of 2022, LNG and
the margin of error. Andrew Putwain Orlen by another five years until the end of imports of Danish and Norwegian Continental
2027, with an option to extend it an extra year. Shelf (NCS) gas via the Baltic Pipe, due to open
PKN Orlen had declared in May 2020, that in October 2022, are to compensate.
IUK raises short-term it would not invest in Ostroleka in its planned PGNiG Upstream Norway has aimed to
form as Poland’s last coal-fired plant to be built, increase its NCS gas production, with forecasts
booking costs but and would only proceed with the project if it for 2021 raised to nearly 1bcm in November.
flows set to persist was switched to gas-fired technology. LNG continues to grow its share of the
Polish gas supply mix since the Swinoujscie
❯❯ Continued from page 1 POLISH POWER MIX terminal opened in 2016. A second Polish LNG
Accounting for commodity and capacity ICIS analytics’ long-term forecast for Polish terminal at Gdansk is planned for 2026/27.
costs, the NBP will need to hold a premium of power shows gas-fired capacity is expected Kaja Sillett
at least 6.283p/th to incentivise further book-
ings following the new 3.5p/th tariff. Polish gas-fired power generation forecast to more than triple by 2030
Forecasts of colder weather and tightening Total yearly capacity (GW) Battery Solar Wind onshore Wind offshore Hydropower
LNG supply have driven rising flows to Britain 70
Bio Gas Coal Oil Lignite
from mainland Europe. Flows are likely to 60
remain high through the end of week 1, as
MetDesk forecast British temperatures would 50
be 3°C below average and wind generation
40
would be poor.
LNG sendout from British terminals has 30
plunged to an average of 27mcm/day in January,
20
compared with 56mcm/day during December,
requiring alternative supply to meet demand. 10
This will likely continue through the month as
0
cargoes have been diverted towards Asia due to 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
high Asian spot prices. Gretchen Ransow Source: ICIS Analytics long-term power capacity forecast

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Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.002 | 5 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 14

News Back to
contents

Central European gas CEE storage fullness below year-ago levels

1 Jan '20 1 Jan '21

❯❯ Continued from page 1 100%

CZECH REPUBLIC
80%
The Czech Republic’s role as a key transit
market is set to grow as the Nord Stream 2 60%
pipeline, which will significantly increase
Russian exports to Europe via Germany, may 40%
finally be completed.
Volumes from the 55bcm/year pipeline will 20%
transit Germany to the Czech Republic via the
second string of the EUGAL pipeline, which 0%
is set to enter service at the beginning of the Czech Republic Slovakia Austria
Source: ICIS-collated storage operator data
second quarter.
Technical entry and exit capacity for the
Czech grid has been boosted by operator SLOVAKIA non-domestic companies injected significant
NET4Gas via the Capacity4Gas project, Nord Stream 2 is likely to reduce the role of Slovakia volumes into storage in Ukraine.
which was completed by the end of 2020. as a transit market for Russian volumes from Slovakia will be a key market for moving this
Volumes will then be able to flow on to Ukraine, although prospects for liquidity are positive. gas back into western Europe, potentially increas-
Austria via Slovak infrastructure. During the summer of 2020 shippers from ing trade in the market. Ed Martin

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ESGM 27.002 | 5 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 15

UK Secondary Data Back to
contents

ICE UK NATURAL GAS FUTURES 5 JANUARY 2021 p/th

Settle Change High Low Total Open Settle Change High Low Total Open
Period p/th p/th p/th p/th Lots m th interest Period p/th p/th p/th p/th Lots m th interest
Feb-21 54.020 -5.430 57.05 53.75 13,255 371.14 73,313 Q2 21 42.488 -2.189 43.20 42.20 600 54.60
Mar-21 50.150 -4.620 52.60 49.91 6,015 186.47 62,580 Q3 21 40.139 -1.772 40.70 39.94 505 46.46
Apr-21 45.530 -2.680 46.34 45.08 3,465 103.95 28,835 Q4 21 47.657 -1.570
May-21 41.740 -2.060 42.34 41.33 2,205 68.36 23,935 Q1 22 50.979 -1.470 51.00 51.00 25 2.25
Jun-21 40.220 -1.830 40.65 40.15 1,660 49.80 18,170 Q2 22 39.419 -1.303
Jul-21 39.580 -1.670 1,440 44.64 15,185 Q3 22 36.376 -1.171
Aug-21 40.050 -1.740 1,150 35.65 15,345 Q4 22 43.984 -1.200
Sep-21 40.810 -1.910 1,150 34.50 14,975 Q1 23 47.022 -1.227
Oct-21 44.040 -1.720 420 13.02 15,200 Q2 23 36.706 -1.163
Nov-21 48.250 -1.530 420 12.60 15,300 Q3 23 35.227 -1.160
Dec-21 50.700 -1.460 420 13.02 15,250 Q4 23 44.126 -1.096
Jan-22 52.720 -1.470 445 13.79 14,965 Quarterly Total 1,130 103.31
Feb-22 52.570 -1.470 445 12.46 14,965 SU'21 41.307 -1.980 42.10 41.05 675 123.53
Mar-22 47.800 -1.470 445 13.79 14,965 WI'21 49.300 -1.520 49.45 49.23 420 76.44
Apr-22 42.430 -1.360 50 1.50 6,920 SU'22 37.889 -1.237 38.10 37.85 50 9.15
May-22 39.010 -1.290 50 1.55 6,920 WI'22 45.486 -1.214
Jun-22 36.830 -1.260 50 1.50 6,920 SU'23 35.962 -1.162 36.15 35.85 25 4.58
Monthly Total 33,085 977.74 363,743 WI'23 43.650 -1.093 43.75 43.65 305 55.51
SU'24 35.158 -0.788
February Settlement 54.02 WI'24 44.378 -0.463
For further information, contact Jason
February Contract index 56.623 Pegley on +44 (0)207 065 7743, SU'25 35.697 -0.390
ICE Futures Europe, Milton Gate, 60 Yearly Total 1,475 269.21
February Weighted Average 54.90
Chiswell Street, London EC1Y 4SA.
Final January Contract Index 46.810 www.theice.com

ICE ENDEX OCM SMP/SAP REPORT GAS DAY 4, 5 JANUARY 2021 p/th
Gas Day SAP SMP buy SMP sell SAP 7 day SAP 30 day
4 59.76 60.89 58.63 57.12 47.54

DAY-AHEAD BEACH CAPACITY PRICES OIL MARKET PRICE ASSESSMENTS

5 JANUARY 2021 (16:30 UK TIME) 5 JANUARY 2021
Bid Yearly ICE Brent ($/barrel) 52.92 2.10
Terminal p/th cumulative Gas oil 0.1% (barges 424.75 426.75 13.00
Bacton 0.100 0.100 FOB ARA $/tonne)
St Fergus 0.100 0.100 Fuel oil 1% (barges 291.50 296.50 14.50
Teesside 0.100 0.100 FOB ARA $/tonne)
*Gas oil and fuel oil prices supplied by ICIS pricing
Theddlethorpe 0.100 0.100
Easington 0.100 0.100

NATIONAL GRID DAILY CAPACITY SUMMARY

National Grid has become aware of an intermittent error relating to the D0 Daily Firm Available data, whereby the quantity
has been frequently overstated. As a result, ICIS is not immediately able to publish the British daily capacity summary.

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Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

ESGM 27.002 | 5 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 16

Trades Back to
contents

EUROPEAN OTC TRADES VOLUME 5 JANUARY 2021

Country Trading location Total MWh % curve* % prompt Number of trades

Austria VTP 1651280 94.5 5.5 72
Belgium Zeebrugge 33703 n/a 100.0 11
Belgium ZTP 51600 n/a 100.0 6
Britain NBP 16506930 82.0 18.0 992
Czech Republic Czech Republic 250656 68.2 31.8 37
France PEG 4705660 92.2 7.8 161
Germany GASPOOL 479375 52.2 47.8 102
Germany NCG 2712340 80.6 19.4 238

Hungary MGP n/a n/a n/a 0

Italy PSV 3501280 78.4 21.6 217
Netherlands TTF 94277335 95.4 4.6 3455
Poland Poland n/a n/a n/a 0
Slovakia Slovakia 186720 93.8 6.2 6
Spain PVB 504944 79.9 20.1 14

EUROPEAN OTC TRADED RANGES 5 JANUARY 2021

Day-ahead February '21 Q2 '21 Summer 21 Year 2022
Trading
Country Location Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Austria VTP 16.800 17.500 16.800 17.200 n/a n/a 16.550 16.600 n/a n/a
Belgium Zeebrugge 18.909 18.909 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Belgium ZTP 18.950 19.300 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Britain NBP 20.421 21.556 20.316 21.545 15.982 16.246 15.518 15.838 n/a n/a
Czech Czech
Republic Republic 17.625 18.500 n/a n/a n/a n/a 16.785 16.785 n/a n/a
France PEG 18.200 19.000 18.160 18.375 15.950 15.950 15.800 15.850 n/a n/a
Germany GASPOOL 17.575 18.800 17.775 18.345 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Germany NCG 17.570 18.700 17.400 18.225 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Hungary MGP n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Italy PSV 17.200 17.875 17.950 18.650 n/a n/a 16.825 16.975 16.625 16.800
Netherlands TTF 17.950 19.125 17.870 19.150 15.250 16.200 15.700 16.100 15.625 15.800
Poland Poland n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Slovakia Slovakia 17.300 17.600 n/a n/a n/a n/a 16.700 16.700 n/a n/a
Spain PVB 31.000 35.000 23.400 23.500 n/a n/a 17.000 17.000 n/a n/a

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ESGM 27.002 | 5 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 17

Weather Back to
contents

Days 1-5 Outlook: 6-10 January

High pressure will extend from northern Britain to the

Nordic region and northwestern Russia bringing dry and
cold conditions there, with low pressure dominating the
Mediterranean Basin, southeastern Europe and central-
eastern Europe and where it will be very unsettled.
A cold east to northeasterly flow will extend from the Baltic
states to Denmark and on to southern Britain.
The easterly flow weakens from Wednesday into Thursday
as pressure falls across the Northern European Plain, with
a northerly flow developing for the British Isles as high
pressure ridges in to Ireland.
Mean temperature anomalies will be -3 to -5°C for the
British Isles, Biscay and Iberia, with -3 to -7°C for southern
Norway. central-eastern Europe +1 to +4°C, southeastern
Europe and Turkey +3 to +7°C. Northern Nordic region, +1
to +4°C.

Days 6-10 Outlook: 11-15 January

High pressure will ridge across the Northern European Plain

at first, bringing settled conditions and widespread frosts.
Low pressure over Greece on Monday will bring wet
conditions there and to parts of southeastern Europe, with
heavy snowfalls over the mountains.
This low tracks to the Black Sea on Tuesday, with another
low following in behind to eastern Turkey on Thursday, with
a cold north to northwesterly flow following in behind.
Pressure remains higher to the southwest of the British Isles,
allowing a less cold west to northwesterly flow to move in
from the Atlantic.
Low pressure over the Baltic states will bring snow to the
Nordic region.
Mean temperature anomalies -1 to -3°C widely but -3 to
-6°C Iberia and northern Nordic region, with +1 to +3°C
from Albania to Ukraine and south to Greece and +4 to
+7°C for Turkey.

<8 8-6 6-4 4-2 2-0 0 0-2 2-4 4-6 6-8 8>
BELOW NORMAL ABOVE NORMAL

Weather forecast graphics and commentary provided in this publication are supplied by Weather Services International (WSI). WSI provides a wide range of pan-European weather forecasts,
commentary and graphics specifically tailored for the energy marketplace. For additional information or to subscribe to our free quarterly WSI Energycast Europe Newsletter please e-mail
energy@wsieurope.com or visit www.wsieurope.com.

European Spot
Gas Markets

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