Professional Documents
Culture Documents
macro economy in our attempt to have a top-down assessment of the situation on the
Egyptian sectors and companies. The defensive sectors such as food, oil, telecoms and 7,500
pharmaceutical are expected to be the least affected during the period of uncertainty. EGX30
7,000
We initially estimate EGX30 constituent companies to witness a 20% decline in 2011
6,500
profits and market to trade at a trailing 8x PER to factor to 2011 slowdown and un-
certainty level, which should gradually improve by time. 6,000
Maridive, comes first in our mind of defensive companies, since most of its operation 5,500
is outside Egypt and denominated in hard currency. Other favorites include, OCI,
5,000
Sewedy Electric, Aracemco, Juhayna, National Maize, Delta Sugar, EFIC, Abu Kier, 12/30 1/ 6 1/ 13 1/ 20 1/ 27
EIPICO, Telecom Egypt and to lesser extent, Mobinil and Orascom Telecom.
Risky sectors include banking, although strong banks like CIB and NSGB are expected Analyst: Mohamed Fahmy
to perform relatively better, while higher risk sectors include financials, real estate, du- Email : mfahmy@jaziracapital.com
rable goods and textiles, which are expected to be effected harder by the current climate. Mobile: +2012 2157312
1
JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE EGYPT
February 17, 2011
Macro, Sectors & Selective Corporates
Initial Paper on Impact of Recent Events
Table of Content
Page 3 Egypt
Page 3 Politics
Page 14-15 EGX 30 & Jazira Capital Focus Companies Price Sheet
Page 16 Disclosure
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JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE EGYPT
February 17, 2011
Macro, Sectors & Selective Corporates
Initial Paper on Impact of Recent Events
Egypt
Egypt has witnessed dramatic changes in its internal political arena over the past couple of
President ousted, Military takes weeks, which culminated with President Hosni Mubarak stepping down on Friday, February
command and promise swift 11, 2011, his ruling National Democratic Party stumbles into disarray and the Egyptian Mili-
transition of power to a civilian tary Supreme Council - EMSC taking command of the country for an expected six to nine
elected leadership months transition period.
Furthermore, the EMSC which has the support of most of the Egyptians, has dissolved the
EMSC dissolve both upper & people’s assembly and the upper house (Shuraa Council) based on the populace believe of
lower council and suspend con- high levels of corruption and forged ballots in the latest people’s assembly elections in Sep-
stitution tember 2010.
The EMSC has also suspended work with the Egyptian constitution due to that operating with
it, would result in a stand still situation as several of its articles hinder changes in it or dissolv-
ing of the people’s assembly in the case of not having a country’s president. Both the changes
in the constitution and holding fair people’s assembly elections are major milestones in the bid
to have free and fair presidential elections later down the road.
Most of the demonstrations have calmed down, however, the situation remains fluid. The
EMSC with its strong populace support and steps it took toward achieving the Egyptian ma-
jority requests and assurances that it has no ambition to remain in power more than needed
make us able now to have some outlook on what to come.
Politics
No change in Egypt's foreign The EMSC has assured that it will abide with all treaties Egypt has signed with foreign parties,
affairs this marginalize any direct confrontation with Israel and minimizes any foreign pressures from
the western countries.
Unity should soften sectarian All religious groups have said that this revolution is for the Egyptian people and they have no
friction in the short-term ambitions to take the lead. This is applicable on the short term and may apply on the long term
which would lead to a calming down of sectarian friction. However, talks on making Egypt’s
constitution a secular one will meet resistance and could result in further friction if it is at-
tempted to be passed in a hasty way.
Police bid to improve its image The Egyptian police will attempt to improve their image in-front of the nation with improving
in front of the public their attitude and way it deals with general public. The police officers have appealed to im-
prove their conditions and salaries in their bid to be more civilized and having respect through
their work rather than force and corruption.
The real test will be the ac-
ceptance of different parties to The following period is expected to witness a heightened political awareness and emergence
the outcome of the ballots of new political parties. This is in itself a great and one of the best outcomes of the latest
events. However, it also poises to be the most active ingredient of the fluid situation. The level
of risk depends on the parties’ ability to debate without escalated friction, and their adherence
to the power of the ballots.
Macro-Economy
Vandalism & thefts erupted
when the police withdrew its On the sidelines of the latest events, vandalism and thefts emerged. This is normal in any situ-
forces from the streets on Feb. 4, ation that is that fluid. Losses may escalate to billions. However, it has not damaged the econ-
however, the direct impact of omy significantly, and insurance along with government compensations would mitigate the
these events is not significant impact of these unfortunate cases even further. So, no significant direct impact from the events
except if accounting for tourism that passed, except on the tourism sector, which has been impacted heavily, as in the first 18
lost revenues days of unrest, one million tourists have left the country and initial losses surpassed one bil-
lion dollars.
Benefit group are using the fluid
situation to pressure employers Demonstrations are now getting fragmented to certain groups of interest with each demanding
for better benefits improvement to their specific conditions. This has and will continue for a while. Its impact
will be more felt in the public sector and companies that are dominated with public ownership.
Two of most sensitive public owned sectors, Suez Canal and Oil sector are well funded and
can calm down protests once emerged. The negative outcome of such compensations will be
off course less revenue to fund other sectors of the economy.
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JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE EGYPT
February 17, 2011
Macro, Sectors & Selective Corporates
Initial Paper on Impact of Recent Events
Higher spending on Army, Higher spending on police and army are expected to be another outcome, also another strain on
police, and public enterprise the government’s chest, which is already stressed out with over US$159 billion public debt and
workers will put more pressure a annual FY10 public budget deficit of 9.3% of GDP.
on Egypt's budget which al- So we expect sectors that are dominated with public ownership, high union activity and low
ready recorded a deficit of profitability such as the textile, milling and pharmaceutical sectors to witness the most turbu-
9.3% of GDP in FY10 lence in production. Public banks which represent around 40%, 45% and 28% of the Egyptian
banking sector with respect to assets, deposits and loans respectively are facing the strongest
retaliation against its recently appointed private mentality management. This may drag these
banks backward with respect to reform at least for a while. They may fail to be competitive in
the short to medium term which can prove positive to private sector banks which will show
their clients that they are able to perform and do have an edge over the public sector banks.
What about GDP?
One or two months of overhauling doesn’t really bring an economy to its knees. Yes, with more
Instability should gradually
focus on politics, we see 2011 as more a year to set the pace to the years to come rather a year
subside but don’t expect nor-
for the economy.
malization in 2011
Tourism was hard hit, with over 14 million tourists arriving to Egypt in 2010 and injecting near-
Tourism revenues to drop 50% ly US$12 billion into the country, we don’t see much of these funds coming back soon, with
in 2011 and Egypt to witness preliminary estimates say 2011 tourism may fall 50% versus last year.
another downgrade in the Red Sea coastal resorts will be the first to see recovery. Currently occupancy in Sharm El-
quality of its tourists over the Sheikh is less than 15% versus 70% in mid January. We expect like following the 1997 terrorist
coming two years attacks, to see a downgrade in the quality of tourists too, to those who will ignore media hype to
Tourist revenue loses since the capitalize on even cheaper packages. This would yield a drop in tourism revenues to be of a
beginning of the unrest esti- larger magnitude than tourist arrival numbers. So although, we may see number of tourists fol-
mated at US$1 billion lowing its current trough to improve, we see money generated to improve at a slower pace.
With any significant change in a community, major changes in social spending and wealth will
The attitude of the future elect-
follow. The most dangerous of those is the demonizing of capitalism; this was an undercurrent
ed government toward capital-
in the mind of a portion of Egyptian society for decades but now has the ability to surface. The
ism and approach to deal with
significance of this demonization will depend on the future leaders of Egypt, and their offered
corruption will be a major
agendas to receive populace approval. Having swift, fair and judicial based actions against cor-
determent in the recovery pace
ruption will, by time, give the populace that the system not them that need to judge violators.
Not expecting much foreign Until a stable government is in office, which will take based on the best guesses 6-9 months, it
funds over the transition peri- is very hard to imagine new flows of fresh foreign direct investment – FDI or public private
od. partnerships. Foreign money wouldn’t favor to sign agreements with a transition government.
On the local front, greater uncertainty is a major deterrent to spending. As it is said, recession is
a state of mind more than a state of the economy. Retail, real estate, auto and banking credit will
face the most of the brunt of the hit.
Banks to suffer some expan-
The sudden economic slowdown would elevate the Egyptian Banking System non-performing
sion in NPLs but conservative
CBE management over the loans ratio. We estimate NPL/total loans, stood at the low teens at the end of 2010. A cautious
past decade will help to reduce banking system approach toward lending the tourism sector and low real estate funding would
its impact go in the favor of the banks combined with loans to deposits standing at the end of 2010 at 53%.
So, as we started our macro discussion, 2011 is the year to build Egypt for future years, but it is
very hard to see economic positive growth levels and we expect erosion in foreign currency
reserves which stood at the end of December 2010 at US$36 billion and have dropped to US$35
by the end of January 2011.
The pressure on foreign reserves and exchange rate will continue as long as Egypt’s main for-
Expect a wide BOP deficit in eign currency sources, tourism and FDIs remain wary from coming back. Will it be a higher
2011, with a dip tourism and import bill or better exports? Remain to be seen… but with Egypt’s balance of payment which
FDIs, while we don’t expect recorded a surplus of US$3.4 billion in FY10 ending June 2010 came on the back of a capital
significant change in Suez and financial surplus account of US$8.4 billion that overshadowed the current account deficit of
Canal & remittance from ex- US$4.3 billion. We don’t see the capital account coming to the aid this year, and surely lower
pats foreign currency flow tourism revenues, would result in a higher current account deficit. This is not the time to put
exact projection since the situation does remain fluid.
We don’t think the much hype Egyptians hope to recover some of the funds that were embezzled by the fallen system officials.
on recovering the fallen sys- Freezing funds, specially Swiss banks, is one thing and repatriating them is a totally different
tem officials accounts in for- story. It would require years of global arbitration and litigation to prove the legitimacy of the
eign banks to yield much value claims. So hopes that these funds would compensate for the expected erosion in Egypt’s foreign
at least in the short to medium reserves are not expected to occur in the short or medium term, let alone their estimated size
time frame may have been exaggerated and the amounts that already have been laundered.
4
JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE EGYPT
February 17, 2011
Macro, Sectors & Selective Corporates
Initial Paper on Impact of Recent Events
Stock Market
The Egyptian stock market was already chocked for while with the political uncertainty. So it
We believe that the recent was already factored in to a degree. The sharp drop over the last couple of days before trading
events were to a degree dis- suspended on January 30, 2011 has also added to the degree of discount for the current events.
counted in the weeks before its With the EGX30 and Jazira Capital focus companies list which include the EGX30 companies
eruption and forecast around in addition to over another 30 companies, their respective PER stood at 10.4x and 10.2x respec-
20% further correction before tively based on January 27, 2011 stock prices. These levels will be further tested and 2010 mul-
the bulls start picking the tiples should go down at least another 20% to 8.0x to factor for at least a 20% decline in 2011
heavily discounted stocks
earnings compared to 2010.
Furthermore, once the stock market opens, we expect an initial major sell-off, which may be
met by the some governmental stabilization efforts. Followed by the entry of new funds, as
more speculative investors will see the discount as an opportunity, as well as local funds which
have no choice in global diversification, will recognize the levels are appealing and will start to
inject funds.
Initial picks would be export
However, if your outlook is as mine, that it’s a matter of when, not if, the political and econom-
oriented and basic goods com-
ic situation stabilize, it will be a matter of selection among stocks that have became heavily
panies along with telecoms
discounted and stocks that have its mechanisms to cross this period with relatively less negative
impact such as export oriented or basic goods. Communication and oil & gas companies will
also cross this period with relatively less negative impact than construction, durable goods, real
estate and public sector textile companies.
We raise our cost of equity by
500 basis points to 22.5% Uncertainty must be reflected on discount rates, to reflect the general fluid situation, which alt-
from 17.5% to understand hough do has the potential for a better medium term outcome, remain significantly uncertain.
better how investors would We will raise our discount rate by 5% which is very conservative approach but capital does
assess the values of stocks at require a cushion of safety in such times. We have consequently raised our cost of equity to
the time being and to adjust 22.5% from 17.5%.
the increased premium as the
First we will cover the sectors in general then will move to companies that Jazira Capital was
situation on the political and
the first to initiate coverage on.
economic arenas develop
Sectors
Banking & Financials
The banking sector will suffer from higher non-performing loans essentially from the touristic
Non-performing loans and
sector and its ripples on construction, durable goods and personal loans. The sector is relatively
slowdown in non-interest in-
shielded by a low loans to deposits ratio and a high NPL coverage ratio. We see the sector will
come is expected in the short-
not witness any growth this year and may even witness a decline in profitability this year. How-
term
ever, structurally the banking sector will remain intact, and will be able to recover as soon as the
economy starts to pick up, estimated to be by early 2012.
We see banks with strong cor-
porate and multinational cus- Best stocks in the sector are the most defensive, backed with a conservative management and
tomers base to perform rela- professional work force that are not expected to cause interruption in the work flow. In addition
tively better banks which are more tied to large corporates and multinationals will not see their clients de-
faulting as those depending on less structured or retail based banks.
The financial sector is high
The financial sector on the other hand, will witness a major decline in its operation in addition
risk in the time being
to operational risks exposure that such a decline in stock market prices may cause.
We don’t recommend the financial sector until the dust settles and we understand better the
level of exposure that each company has. Saying so, EFG-Hermes does have the most advanced
corporate governance and should be the first to highlight if they have any exposure. Further-
more, the company does have ample of cash culminating at EGP11.9 billion at the end of Sep-
tember 2010 and it has a diversified operation with less than half of its 9M FY10 revenues
stemming from Egypt, but have foreign ownership exposure which may put downward pressure
on the stock in the short-term.
Favorites:
♦ Commercial International Bank
♦ National Societe Generale Bank
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JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE EGYPT
February 17, 2011
Macro, Sectors & Selective Corporates
Initial Paper on Impact of Recent Events
Favorites:
♦ Orascom Construction Industries
♦ Sewedy Electric
♦ Aracemco
Durable Goods
As a repercussion of the people’s uprising, Electrolux have decided to stop the acquisition of
Will not really be on the top of Olympic Group (OLGR.CA), furthermore, we see that sales of durable goods will not go back
Egyptian shopping lists in the to its previous levels before a couple of months. The same goes for GB Auto (AUTO.CA), alt-
short-term hough, GB Auto ability to provide affordable cars, may prove to its favor. However, with tour-
ism and enterprises juggling to stay afloat, buses and trucks sales are not expected to pick-up
any time soon.
Favorites:
♦ None
6
JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE EGYPT
February 17, 2011
Macro, Sectors & Selective Corporates
Initial Paper on Impact of Recent Events
Food Sector
Food sector defensive nature The food sector is destined to benefit from all what is going on, spending on food is not ex-
and expected increase in low pected to shrink and the demands for higher salaries and the expected rise of low to low-
level income employees will medium income segments disposable income, with a great portion of this rise in income to be
aid the sector performance channeled to basic demand at least in the short-term.
over the coming period Furthermore, we consider fertilizers companies as food related companies. We believe Egyptian
Financial Industries (EFIC.CA) has the possibility to face less workers interruption and has
global outlet to its products. However, we see both EFIC and Abu kier Fertilizers (ABUK.CA)
as benefiting from the local conditions, as we expect that although the government will attempt
to curb food products price inflation through its co-ops, food prices are expected to rise, which
will result in increased farmer income and land return.
Favorites:
♦ Juhayna Food industries
♦ National Maize
♦ Delta Sugar
♦ Egyptian Financial Industries
♦ Abu Kier Fertilizers
Pharmaceutical Sector
The pharmaceutical sector is a defensive sector by nature just like the food sector. Egyptian
Another defensive sector and
International Pharmaceutical Industries Company - EIPICO (PHAR.CA) comes first to our
workers request for better ben-
mind since we are not favoring public sector companies in the short-term until we see how man-
efits will partly ripple into
agement and workers will deal together in these turbulent days. EIPICO is trading at 8.5x 2010
their health benefits
earnings which may position it not to lose much further once the market open.
Favorites:
♦ EIPICO
7
JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE EGYPT
February 17, 2011
Macro, Sectors & Selective Corporates
Initial Paper on Impact of Recent Events
8
JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE EGYPT
February 17, 2011
Macro, Sectors & Selective Corporates
Initial Paper on Impact of Recent Events
National Maize
National Maize has sent a disclosure letter to the EGX that its operation did not stop during the
turbulence period and that all its assets are intact.
We expect national maize to
perform as usual but with National Maize is a producer of products that enter into carbonated drinks and confectionary
higher exchange rate pressur- products. We don’t see an impact of the current events with respect to production and sales.
ing margins and the higher However, the Egyptian pound devaluation will put some strain on its cost structure.
discount rate led to a 18% re-
We had already been planning to issue an upgrade for National Maize following confirmation
duction in value
from its investor relations that they were able to pass the increase in cost of corn to its custom-
ers, although we realized that some of what we thought expansions to be completed in late 2010
have been postponed to mid to late 2011.
Following our current revisit to National Maize valuation model, we have downgraded the val-
ue by 18% to EGP18.5/share versus EGP22.7/share in our 9M FY10 National Maize Update.
9
JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE EGYPT
February 17, 2011
Macro, Sectors & Selective Corporates
Initial Paper on Impact of Recent Events
10
JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE EGYPT
February 17, 2011
Macro, Sectors & Selective Corporates
Initial Paper on Impact of Recent Events
11
JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE EGYPT
February 17, 2011
Macro, Sectors & Selective Corporates
Initial Paper on Impact of Recent Events
EFG-Hermes (HRHO.CA)(HRHOq.L)
Egypt's biggest investment bank, which has up to $6.2 billion in assets under management, said
it had resumed work and there had been no damage to any of its assets or property.
EFG Hermes also released that its ties to, Gamal Mubark , the son of Egypt’s former president,
is contained to Gamal’s ownership of 18% in EFG for Direct Investment. This Subsidiary repre-
sent around 8% of the group’s revenues.
12
JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE EGYPT
February 17, 2011
Macro, Sectors & Selective Corporates
Initial Paper on Impact of Recent Events
Lecico (LCSW.CA)
The ceramics maker said operations have been disrupted for the past two and a half weeks. It
agreed to increase staff pay and benefits after a two-day strike. Productivity was down 30 per-
cent during the past two weeks and local commercial and export activity halted for eight days, it
said.
13
JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE EGYPT
February 17, 2011
Macro, Sectors & Selec ve Corporates
Ini al Paper on Impact of Recent Events
Sectors / Companies Reuters Last YTD % Yr. Yr. Market Cap % Free Weight Weight PER (x) DY (%)
Prices are in EGP unless stated otherwise Code Price Change High Low (EGP mn) Float in EGX in Focus 2009 2010 2009 2010
EGX30 .EGX30 5,647 ▼20.9 7,248 5,628 205,756 44 100% 69.8% 12.8 10.4 3.1 4.7
Jazira Securities Focus Companies ▼17.4 294,679 38 NI 100.0% 12.6 10.2 3.7 5.1
Banking & Finance ▼19.7 63,494 60 37.1% 34.5% 16.0 15.0 2.8 3.6
Ahli Investment and Development AFDI 10.6 ▼31.8 23.9 10.2 211 37 NI 0.1% 58.1 32.6 - -
Commercial International Bank* COMI 36.5 ▼22.9 47.7 27.5 21,534 90 21.3% 17.4% 14.5 13.0 2.0 2.3
Citadel Capital* CCAP 7.1 ▼22.7 9.7 5.7 3,543 44 NI 1.4% 35.7 n/a - -
Credit Agricole Egypt Bank CIEB 13.2 ▼15.7 16.5 10.0 3,774 21 NI 0.7% 11.0 10.1 8.4 8.3
EFG-Hermes Holding* HRHO 26.4 ▼21.4 37.3 25.0 10,111 74 8.2% 6.7% 19.3 11.8 3.8 9.5
Egyptian Kuwaiti Holding (USD)* EKHO 1.3 ▼25.4 2.2 1.2 5,986 79 5.3% 4.3% 7.2 11.5 0.9 0.6
Naeem Holding (USD) NAHO 0.4 ▼20.0 0.6 0.3 700 52 NI 0.3% n/a 38.6 - -
National Development Bank DEVE 4.2 ▼29.1 7.1 3.7 726 31 NI 0.2% n/a n/a - -
National Societe Generale Bank NSGB 42.8 ▼13.3 52.5 26.8 15,678 22 NI 3.0% 14.3 14.0 2.7 2.9
Pioneers Holding* PIOH 2.5 ▼23.1 7.2 2.4 1,230 34 0.5% 0.4% 14.1 20.1 14.2 4.0
Construction & Related ▼18.0 92,196 33 27.5% 27.2% 13.5 10.6 4.3 5.6
Aracemco CERA 27.9 ▼10.8 35.0 17.0 697 24 NI 0.2% 10.4 7.7 7.2 7.2
ASEC Company for Mining ASCM 9.0 ▼28.6 22.7 8.8 316 31 NI 0.1% 22.7 11.9 - -
Egyptian Electrical Cables* ELEC 0.7 ▼24.5 1.4 0.7 367 88 0.4% 0.3% 7.0 7.8 6.8 6.1
Egyptian for Developing Building Materi-
EDBM 13.7 ▼40.3 77.4 12.6 59 72 NI 0.0% n/a 163.8 - -
als*
Ezz Aldekhela Steel IRAX 658.6 ▼16.1 1,130 621 8,802 9 NI 0.7% 15.9 10.5 5.6 7.6
Ezz Steel Rebars* ESRS 15.9 ▼19.1 26.0 15.0 8,654 35 3.3% 2.7% 106.5 21.3 - -
Misr Beni Suef Cement MBSC 60.0 ▼14.2 105 56 2,400 40 NI 0.9% 6.3 5.8 5.0 8.6
Misr Cement (Qena) MCQE 101.5 ▲0.5 121.0 75.1 3,034 20 NI 0.5% 8.4 6.7 9.8 12.0
Orascom Construction Industries* OCIC 227.1 ▼21.1 295 215 47,444 38 20.1% 16.4% 19.1 15.2 4.4 5.3
Sinai Cement SCEM 45.6 ▼5.2 58.5 38.3 3,192 30 NI 0.9% 4.9 4.9 8.8 12.2
South Valley Cement* SVCE 3.8 ▼25.8 8.1 3.6 1,867 24 0.5% 0.4% 12.3 8.8 - -
Suez Cement SUCE 34.2 ▼10.0 48.0 29.0 6,221 19 NI 1.1% 4.9 4.5 9.5 11.1
Sewedy Cables* SWDY 45.7 ▼14.7 63.8 39.3 7,861 33 2.9% 2.3% 12.6 9.3 - 1.6
Paint & Chemicals Industries PACH 47.1 ▼12.8 58.0 40.7 942 58 NI 0.5% 11.4 6.8 7.4 11.7
Upper Egypt Contracting* UEGC 0.9 ▼26.2 2.5 0.8 340 92 0.3% 0.3% 7.7 6.0 - 10.9
Durable Goods ▼10.2 7,253 26 NI 1.7% 20.3 12.5 2.8 4.6
Ghabour Auto AUTO 39.1 ▼10.1 55.0 25.0 5,041 27 NI 1.2% 27.3 17.0 2.6 4.1
Olympic Group OLGR 36.8 ▼10.3 42.9 23.5 2,212 25 NI 0.5% 12.8 7.7 3.4 5.8
Source: price data from Reuters & Jazira Capital EsƟmates
14
JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE EGYPT
February 17, 2011
Macro, Sectors & Selec ve Corporates
Ini al Paper on Impact of Recent Events
Sectors / Companies Reuters Last YTD % Yr. Yr. Market Cap % Free Weight Weight PER (x) DY (%)
Prices are in EGP unless stated otherwise Code Price Change High Low (EGP mn) Float in EGX in Focus 2009 2010 2009 2010
Food & Related ▼5.1 16,240 22 0.3% 3.1% 13.2 11.2 6.3 6.4
Ajwa for Food Industries * AJWA 2.6 ▼23.3 17 3 264 38 NI 0.1% 3.0 4.2 - -
Abu Kier Fertilizers ABUK 197.3 ▲0.2 235 179 9,960 13 NI 1.2% 11.0 9.2 8.1 9.8
Egypt for Poultry* EPCO 2.5 ▼35.5 5.7 2.4 116 94 0.1% 0.1% 31.0 22.2 - -
Egyptian Financial & Industrial EFIC 15.6 ▼16.4 26.0 14.5 1,082 54 NI 0.5% 42.0 18.2 - -
Juhayna Food Industries JUFO 5.5 ▼8.8 6.5 1.0 3,973 27 NI 1.0% 27.0 24.5 4.3 -
International Agricultural Products IFAP 4.8 ▼8.9 8.5 3.9 359 47 NI 0.2% 139.7 164.3 - -
National Co. for Maize Products* NCMP 16.4 ▼17.9 23.8 13.5 485 34 0.2% 0.1% 7.8 6.7 11.2 12.2
Real Estate & Related ▼25.5 32,377 40 11.4% 11.6% 13.6 8.5 0.6 0.8
Amer Group AMER 1.9 ▼34.0 3.0 1.7 3,961 19 NI 0.7% 7.9 7.5 - -
Cairo Housing* ELKA 4.7 ▼24.4 8.8 4.1 441 64 0.3% 0.3% 13.2 10.2 7.1 9.3
Egyptian Resorts Company* EGTS 1.5 ▼24.0 3.1 1.4 1,596 43 0.8% 0.6% n/a 1596.0 - -
Heliopolis Housing HELI 18.3 ▼25.5 26.6 16.1 2,040 23 NI 0.4% 23.1 15.1 3.6 5.6
Nasr City Housing MNHD 23.8 ▼24.3 37.0 21.5 2,381 46 NI 1.0% 22.6 18.5 3.4 4.1
Palm Hills Development Company* PHDC 4.9 ▼22.5 7.0 4.3 5,105 35 2.0% 1.6% 10.7 5.8 - -
Real Estate Dev. for National Banks* NRPD 15.4 ▼38.8 39.4 12.8 60 99 NI 0.1% 26.5 16.8 3.2 4.4
Remco for Touristic Villages Construction* RTVC 2.9 ▼31.0 7.2 2.8 721 25 NI 0.2% 4.0 3.6 - -
SODIC* OCDI 80.6 ▼24.1 117.0 72.0 2,924 60 1.9% 1.6% n/a 16.2 - -
T M G Holding* TMGH 6.5 ▼24.1 8.7 6.0 13,146 45 6.4% 5.3% 11.9 7.7 - -
Telecom, Media & IT ▼14.9 60,736 30 19.5% 16.2% 9.0 7.8 3.7 7.0
Mobinil* EMOB 133.2 ▼18.8 242.5 125.0 13,321 27 4.0% 3.2% 7.1 9.8 7.1 7.1
Egyptian Media Production City* MPRC 4.2 ▼24.2 9.7 4.0 789 20 NI 0.1% 10.3 9.1 - -
Orascom Telecom Holding* ORTE 3.6 ▼16.0 7.9 3.5 18,989 48 10.1% 8.2% 10.3 6.3 - 9.7
Raya Holding RAYA 4.4 ▼25.9 7.3 4.2 272 61 NI 0.1% 6.6 5.5 5.2 7.3
Telecom Egypt* ETEL 16.0 ▼11.6 20.6 14.9 27,364 18 5.4% 4.4% 9.4 8.4 4.7 5.3
Textile & Related ▼18.7 6,108 37 0.7% 2.0% 15.2 8.8 3.9 3.9
Alexandria Spinning & Weaving SPIN 1.3 ▼30.6 2.0 1.2 373 38 NI 0.1% 24.7 1.8 4.0 76.0
Arab Cotton Ginning* ACGC 3.1 ▼29.8 6.4 2.9 834 63 0.6% 0.5% 36.0 22.9 - -
Arab Polvara Spinning & Weaving Co.* APSW 2.4 ▼36.4 5.2 2.3 226 69 0.2% 0.1% n/a n/a - -
Arafa Holding (USD) AIVC 0.6 ▼18.9 0.7 0.5 887 32 NI 0.3% 15.4 6.0 - -
Nasr Clothes & Textiles (Kabo) KABO 0.8 ▼32.8 1.9 0.7 264 37 NI 0.1% n/a n/a - -
Nile Cotton Ginning NCGC 11.3 ▼31.0 17.6 10.5 596 70 NI 0.4% 23.0 n/a - -
Oriental Weavers ORWE 32.5 ▼5.0 37.3 25.7 2,928 21 NI 0.6% 8.7 9.0 7.6 7.6
Oil Related ▼6.8 16,276 25 3.6% 3.6% 10.8 9.3 7.6 8.6
Alexandria Minerals Oil Company AMOC 49.1 ▲12.0 58.5 37.1 4,225 20 NI 0.8% 10.2 8.5 8.2 8.2
Maridive & Oil Services (USD)* MOIL 3.1 ▼14.3 4.0 2.5 5,321 31 1.9% 1.5% 12.8 15.6 4.5 3.7
Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals* SKPC 12.8 ▼10.0 15.8 9.7 6,731 23 1.7% 1.4% 9.9 7.5 9.8 12.7
Source: price data from Reuters & Jazira Capital EsƟmates
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JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE EGYPT
February 17, 2011
Macro, Sectors & Selective Corporates
Initial Paper on Impact of Recent Events
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