ENERGY MANAGER TRAINING COURSE (EMTC)

TC 0.0 – ENERGY SCENARIO

VER.2(2019)

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Learning Outcomes
At the end of the module, participants should be able to:

1. Describe climate change and global warming phenomena,

implications and mitigation measures.

2. Describe the baseline current and future scenario of global,

regional and local energy supply and demand
(consumption) trends and the relative significance/amounts
of the different types of energy utilised.

3. Explain the scenario, trends and roles of Energy Efficiency

(EE) and Renewable Energy (RE) Investment in the context
of conservation of resources, benefits to economy,
mitigation of climate change and other key benefits to
organisations.
Contents

1. Energy Consumption Impact on Climate Change

2. Global and Regional (ASEAN) Energy Scenario
3. Malaysia Energy Scenario

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1.0 Energy Consumption Impact on Climate Change
1.1 Global warming issues: The Phenomenon

1 Energy from the Sun beats down on the

Earth.
2 Some energy is reflected into space, the
rest enters the atmosphere.
3 The Earth absorbs the energy and emits
heat.
4 Unlike other gases, greenhouse gases
absorb and re-emit the heat energy -
some is emitted into space and some back
to Earth.
5 The heat is effectively trapped and warms
the Earth.

Source: news.bbc.co.uk
1.0 Energy Consumption Impact on Climate Change
1.1 Global warming issues
Rising GHG (CO2, CH4, HFC, PFC, N2O, SF6 )
emissions causes:
• Temperature rise with CO2 (90% CO2 originated
from burning fossil fuel) – Global warming
• IPCC: Average global surface temp rise is
projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.80C by 2100.
• Melting of polar icecaps
• Rise in sea level: 0.09 to 0.88m (1990 to 2100)
• 200 million (climate change) refugees by 2100.
(Source: ECCJ & Sustainable Energy Authority, Victoria, Australia)

(Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA)

• Climate change encompasses not only rising average temperatures but also extreme
weather events, shifting wildlife populations and habitats, rising seas, and a range of
other impacts. All of these changes are emerging as humans continue to add heat-
trapping greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

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source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com
1.2 Global warming impact

• Ice is melting worldwide, especially at the

Earth’s poles. This includes mountain
glaciers, ice sheets covering West Antarctica
and Greenland, and Arctic sea ice. In
Montana's Glacier National Park the number
of glaciers has declined to fewer than 30 from
more than 150 in 1910.
• Much of this melting ice contributes to sea-level
rise. Global sea levels are rising 0.13 inches
(3.2 millimeters) a year, and the rise is
occurring at a faster rate in recent years.

• Rising temperatures are affecting wildlife and their habitats. Vanishing ice has
challenged species such as the Adélie penguin in Antarctica, where some populations
on the western peninsula have collapsed by 90 percent or more

source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com 6
1.2 Global warming impact

• As temperatures change, many

species are on the move. Some
butterflies, foxes, and alpine plants
have migrated farther north or to
higher, cooler areas.
• Precipitation (rain and snowfall) has
increased across the globe, on
average. Yet some regions are
experiencing more severe drought,
increasing the risk of wildfires, lost
crops, and drinking water shortages
• Some species—including mosquitoes, ticks, jellyfish, and crop pests—are thriving.
Booming populations of bark beetles that feed on spruce and pine trees, for example,
have devastated millions of forested acres in the U.S.

source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com 7
The United Nation’s 7/17
Sustainable Development Goals
2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.1 World Oil Price Trend

$65-70

April 2019

source : https://www.macrotrends.net
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 ENERGY MANAGER TRAINING COURSE (EMTC)

Energy and Climate Change

A Multimedia Message by the National
Geographic

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 ENERGY MANAGER TRAINING COURSE (EMTC)

What are your (your company’s)

other motivations and concerns?

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.1 Supply and Demand

TPES represents the total amount of

energy that is available to meet demand in
a country or region in a given period of
time.

Primary energy is any energy commodity

that can be captured directly from natural
resources. This includes crude oil, hard
coal or natural gas. Secondary energy
comes from the transformation of primary
energy.

source : https://www.iea.org/statistics/kwes/supply
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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.1 Supply and Demand

Total Final Consumption, or TFC,

is the amount of energy available
for final use in homes, businesses
(including for non-energy uses),
and for transport. It is measured
after energy has been transformed
from one form to another, but also
includes direct use of primary fuels.

source : https://www.iea.org/statistics/kwes/supply
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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.3 Energy Efficiency (EE) and Renewable Energy (RE) Investment

For the 3rd consecutive year energy investment declined in 2017, by 2% due to
less power generation investment, lower cost and continued prudence in the oil
and gas sector. EE was a lone growth area.

source : World Energy Investment 2018 by IEA

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.3 Energy Efficiency (EE) and Renewable Energy (RE) Investment

EE Investment By Sector And Region

• Since 2000, improvements in energy efficiency in the world’s major economies offset more
than one-third of the increase in energy-using activities.
• Most of these savings were achieved in the industry and buildings sectors. Globally,
efficiency gains since 2000 prevented 12% more energy use in 2017.

source : Market Report Series Energy Efficiency 2018 by IEA

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.3 Energy Efficiency (EE) and Renewable Energy (RE) Investment

Global Investment In Industrial EE 2014 - 2017

source : Market Report Series Energy Efficiency 2018 by IEA

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.3 Energy Efficiency (EE) and Renewable Energy (RE) Investment

Average annual growth rates of World

Renewables Supply from 1990 to 2016

• Since 1990, RE sources have

grown at average annual rate of
2%, which is slightly higher than
the growth rate of world TPES,
1.7%

source : Renewable Energy Report : IEA 2018

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.3 Energy Efficiency (EE) and Renewable Energy (RE) Investment

• Electricity investment has

shifted towards renewables,
network and flexibility.

• Yet expected output for low-

carbon power investment
fell 10% in 2017 and did not
keep pace with demand
growth

source : World Energy Investment 2018 by IEA

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.4 ASEAN Scenario

ASEAN’s position
625 Million people
3rd largest Population
5th largest World
economy by 2025

*ASEAN: Association of
South-East Asian Nations
2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.4 ASEAN Scenario

• Southeast Asia is increasingly influential on the global energy

stage. The ASEAN countries collectively are the world’s seven-
largest economy (predicted to be the world’s fifth largest
economy by 2025) and the fifth-largest destination for foreign
investment in 2016. Strong economic growth has fueled a 70%
increase in energy demand since 2000, and the region now
accounts for 11% of total global demand (WEO2017 Special
Report : Southeast Asia Energy Outlook)

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.4 ASEAN Scenario

source : https://www.iea.org/southeastasia/
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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.4 ASEAN Scenario
Changes in total primary energy demand per capita in Southeast Asia

• Energy demand in
Southeast Asia has
grown rapidly since
2000, although
regional averages
mask a wide range of
country circumstances

source : WEO2017 Special Report : Southeast Asia Energy Outlook

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.4 ASEAN Scenario – Electricity Demand
Average annual growth in per capita electricity consumption in Southeast Asia, 2000 - 2015

source : WEO2017 Special Report : Southeast Asia Energy Outlook

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.4 ASEAN Scenario

Energy demand by fuel and sector in Southeast Asia

• Industry has led energy demand growth among the end use sector since 2000,
overtaking buildings to become the largest end use consumer

source : WEO2017 Special Report : Southeast Asia Energy Outlook

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.4 ASEAN Scenario
Projection of Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC)

• Under Business-As –Usual (BAU)

scenario, TPES is expected to
increased by a factor of 2.3
reaching 1,450 Mtoe by 2040.
• Under AMS(Asean Member States)
target scenario (ATS) and ASEAN
Progressive Scenario (APS), EE
and RE targets lead to savings in
TPES of 13.9% and 22% in 2040
compared to BAU

source : The 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook (2015 – 2040)

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.4 ASEAN Scenario
Projection of Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES)

source : The 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook (2015 – 2040)

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.4 ASEAN Scenario – Demand and Supply
• TFEC escalates from 427 Mtoe in 2015 to 1,046 Mtoe (BAU), 856 Mtoe (ATS),
and 771 Mtoe (APS) in 2040. The increase is driven by industry, transport and
residential sectors. These sectors provide opportunities for potential energy
savings and efficiency gains.
• Under AMS Targets Scenario (ATS) and ASEAN Progressive Scenario (APS),
EE targets lead to savings in TFEC of 18.2% and 26.3% respectively in 2040,
as compared to BAU.
• Industry and transport sectors expand in ATS with a CAGR of approximately
3.3% and 3.1%, respectively. The residential sector shows a moderate growth
as a result of a shift away from traditional biomass, and increasing access to
grid-quality electricity.
• Oil is dominant in TFEC, both historically and in the projection period in all
scenarios. Notably, biofuels play a significant role with a CAGR of 3.6% in ATS.
• In the absence of enhanced EE and RE, between 2015 and 2040, TPES will
increase more than double.

source : The 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook (2015 – 2040)

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.5 Tackling Climate Change in ASEAN

source: ASEAN in climate change : Spotlight on sustainable energy in Malaysia, Thailand & Vietnam, July 2016 28
2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.5 Tackling Climate Change in ASEAN
APAEC Target: Reduction Energy Intensity (%)

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 2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.5 Tackling Climate Change in ASEAN
• At a regional level ASEAN states have adopted a series of strategies in
the ASEAN Plan of Action For Energy Co-operation (2016 – 2025).
These include commitments to :

i. Increase the component of Renewable Energy (hydro, geothermal and

other sources such as solar and wind but not traditional biomass) to
23% of ASEAN ‘s energy mix by 2025 (from around 10% currently);
ii. Reduce energy intensity by 20% from 2005 levels by 2020, and by
30% by 2025;
iii. Promote clean coal technologies; and
iv. Build policy , technology and regulatory capabilities to develop nuclear
technology

• In addition, every ASEAN member states submitted an Intended Nationally

Determined Contribution (NDC) as part of the COP21 process.

source: ASEAN in climate change : Spotlight on sustainable energy in Malaysia, Thailand & Vietnam, July 2016 30
 2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.5 Tackling Climate Change in ASEAN
• Introduction of ASEAN Plan of Action For Energy Co-operation (APAEC)
i. The APAEC is a series of guiding policy documents to support the
implementation of multilateral energy cooperation to advance regional
integration and connectivity goals in ASEAN.
ii. The APAEC 2016-2025, has been developed by building on the
progressive achievements of the previous plans. With the theme, “Enhancing
Energy Connectivity and Market Integration in ASEAN to achieve energy
security, accessibility, affordability and sustainability for all”, the plan will
implement the outcome-based strategies and action plans through the seven
Programme areas.
iii. Extended over a longer period of 10 years, the plan will be implemented
in two phases, namely Phase I: 2016-2020, which will focus on the
short to medium-term strategies required to achieve energy security
cooperation and move towards greater connectivity and integration
iv. Currently ACE is now under development of APAEC Phase II: 2021-2025

source: ASEAN in climate change : Spotlight on sustainable energy in Malaysia, Thailand & Vietnam, July 2016 31
2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.5 Tackling Climate Change in ASEAN

APAEC 2016-2025

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 2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.5 Tackling Climate Change in ASEAN

INTRODUCTION
ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC ) 2016-2025:

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.5 Tackling Climate Change in ASEAN

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.5 Tackling Climate Change in ASEAN

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.5 Tackling Climate Change in ASEAN

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2.0 Global Energy Trends
2.5 Tackling Climate Change in ASEAN

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3.0 Malaysia Energy Scenario
3.1 Supply and demand

Primary Energy Supply and Final Energy Demand

Sources: National Energy Balance 2015

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3.0 Malaysia Energy Scenario
3.2 Energy Demand by Sector

Final Use of Energy

Final Use by Sector

Agriculture –
0.7%
Non-Energy
Use – 15.3%
Residential &
Commercial –
14.0%

Transport –
42.0%

Industrial –
28.0%

Source: National Energy Balance 2016 40

3.0 Malaysia Energy Scenario
3.3 Sources of Energy

Malaysia’s Primary Energy Supply

Primary
Malaysia’s Energy Resources Energy Mix

Crude oil : 5.03 bil. bbl Nat gas : 87.763 tcf Hydro & RE –
(Reserve life : Oil – 21 yrs Gas – 37 yrs) 5.6%

Coal : 1,938.4 mil tonnes (low grade)

Coal – 20.2%
Hydro : 20,000 MW

Non-solar RE potential : About 2660 MW

Solar : Unlimited
Nat. Gas –
40.7%

Oil – 33.5%

Source: National Energy Balance 2016

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3.0 Malaysia Energy Scenario
3.4 Malaysian pledge (Paris Agreement)
• The Paris Agreement (PA) is an accord within the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) dealing with greenhouse gas
emission mitigation, adaptation and finance starting
in 2020.

• Under the PA, Malaysia has committed to reduce Greenhouse

Gas (GHG) emissions by 45% by 2030 in relation to our
2005 GDP.
• This target was set with 35% on unconditional basis and
10% on conditional basis upon receipt of climate finance
funding, technology transfer and capacity building from
developed countries.
• In addition, Malaysia also committed to maintain at least
50% level of forest & tree conservation

source: https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016 42
3.0 Malaysia Energy Scenario
3.5 Industrial Revolution 4.0

source: The Race Towards Industry 4.0 – MPC Report 2018 43

3.0 Malaysia Energy Scenario
3.5 Industrial Revolution 4.0

source: The Race Towards Industry 4.0 – MPC Report 2018 44

3.0 Malaysia Energy Scenario
3.5 Industrial Revolution 4.0

Global Overview

source: The Race Towards Industry 4.0 – MPC Report 2018 45

3.0 Malaysia Energy Scenario
3.5 Industrial Revolution 4.0
Malaysia’s Issues and Challenge

source: Drat IR4.0 Policy Framework (MITI)

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3.0 Malaysia Energy Scenario
3.5 Industrial Revolution 4.0
Malaysia’s Issues and Challenge

source: Drat IR4.0 Policy Framework (MITI)

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End of Session

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