NUM 650 Determinant Matrices

Audrey Nguyen

all but I ran since I covered that

Proliferation Determinants
India
National Pre-requisite Underlying Pressures

they already have a declared Have borderdisputes

ongoing
and confirmed nuclear weapons with China Pakistan
program
They're currently also upgrading
pathof their fuel cycle
capanilities
Underlying Constraints Situational Variables

None Theirprogram exists 8 Arenotparty to various agreements

they're done some testing declaringthem discriminatory
Lex CTBto NPD
There's a chance of int l sanction
if they g too far

9
Proliferation Determinants
China
National Pre-requisite Underlying Pressures

Has a nuclearpowerprogram borderissuesi need nutter zones

intend to become to stay safe to think their
selfsufficient
interms of nuclearfuelcycle territory

Have a confirmed nuclear

weapons program
Underlying Constraints Situational Variables

ainitial relationships with other countries

Availabilityoffunding
scientific know how with which trade happens

9
Proliferation Determinants
Pakistan
National Pre-requisite Underlying Pressures

nuclear weapons is disputes with India

program
confirmed
desire
fordominance in the
Islamic world
many parts offuel cycle
available
borderdispute with Afghanistan
in state

Underlying Constraints Situational Variables

sanctionsfrom the international A a Khan

carried the program
community 2ms
2superjumpstalled

9
Proliferation Determinants
I shall
National Pre-requisite Underlying Pressures
surrounded potentially
They maybe probably have a by
hostile neighbors
nuclear weapons arsenal but
have never done
anything
to overtly confirm this
a
open secret

Underlying Constraints Situational Variables

Treaties 8 sanctions smallcantey w limitedresources
not
by
remain
confirming theyand
technically weapons free
so are not a pariahAnte

9
Proliferation Determinants
North Korea
National Pre-requisite
have adeclared meteor
they
weapons program
Underlying Constraints
Super sanctioned by the
international
community
Underlying Pressures
palian state
Borderissues with SouthKorea
citizens
fed story about the
a
US dropped unhes that causes
them to believe that getting an
arsenal souldhe thetop
priority
Situational Variables
strengthidentityofNorthKorea
corresponds with their nuclear
programHothead
when willthe sanctionsimposedme
too much 8 cause the DPRKto
1
Snap
9
Proliferation Determinants
Brazil 8 Argentina
National Pre-requisite Underlying Pressures
Both countries were onthe pathto the twocountrieshad a
very
nuclear weapons w Brazil at an with each other
advantage but have since both
big enally
disarmed 8 steppedback in the past but havesince
come to view each other as
a brothers

Underlying Constraints Situational Variables

economicconcerns
forboth peace in theirregion more orless
countries all
of SouthAmericais in a
no nuhes
treatyright nor

9
Proliferation Determinants
South Africa
National Pre-requisite Underlying Pressures

Had declared weapons

a strainedrelationship wthother
declared
that Amtries aroundthem
program they
hadfinished
only afterthey PMiahstate b capatthide
dismantling it

Underlying Constraints Situational Variables

declared9dismantled to avoid UulentlyhaveHEU stockpile

further pariahstatusto be able
torebuildcountry 8relationship
with otherStates

9
Proliferation Determinants
Uwa int
National Pre-requisite Underlying Pressures

had nuclearweapons in the gate up nukes in country

useless to themlands Russian
Ussr
fun
country followingseparation
but has hedeclared controland to avoid
becoming a pariah state
programoftheir arm

have a nuclear power

program
Underlying Constraints Situational Variables
8
economy reputation
on Russia is reaching to
ward stage control region

9
Proliferation Determinants
Saudi Arabia
National Pre-requisite Underlying Pressures

nuclear Islamic area of the world

energyprogram Sunni vs Shia
energy isfocus no
Iran is an issue 8 caredconvince
stateddesire
fornukes them to stout their weapons
but may have
funded waves
partially
for
a cliff
program f
largeenough
a

threat is percciered
state
Underlying Constraints Situational Variables

Still early in developing in state notpartof atomsforpeace

facilitiesfor the nucleus norequirement to hideA
fuel cycle pursueweapons

9
Proliferation Determinants
Japan
National Pre-requisite Underlying Pressures

havemanyparts offadcycle in www.uorea is resting missiles

have a ale waving on more over their head
advanced tech
able but notwillingto pursuenuclear
weaponsprogram were affected
2 in post 0 seeconsequences
by
Underlying Constraints Situational Variables
trade int l community
mustrely on imported uranium on w
rely