Climate Change

by
Greenhouse Gases.

18 January 2021 keith.shotbolt@hotmail.co.uk

B.Sc., ex-M.I.Mech.E.
 The Greenhouse Effect - by IPCC 2007.
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report AR4 2007- chapter1 Historical Overview.

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ar4-wg1-chapter1.pdf

“The Sun heats the land and oceans by radiation.

The warmed surfaces then re-radiate heat
outwardly from the Earth in the form of infra-red
rays. Much of this outgoing radiation is absorbed
by the atmosphere, including clouds, and re-
radiated back to Earth.
Some gas molecules in the air act like the glass
walls of a greenhouse, which reduce air flow and
increase the temperature inside. Nitrogen and
oxygen exert almost no greenhouse effect.

Water vapour is the most important

greenhouse gas, and carbon dioxide (CO2)
is the second-most important one.”
Over the last 150 years, temperature records in general have shown
a rise of around 1 degree Centigrade.
12

11

10

6
1715 1765 1815 1865 1915 1965 2015

The above plot of Central England Annual Temperature (HadCET) over the years since 1721 is a typical example.

A book entitled Global Warming, 3rd Edition 2004, is available at http://www.gci.org.uk/Documents/Global-Warming-

the-Complete-Briefing.pdf . It summarises ‘climate science’ at that time. Chapter 3, page 28 states:
The most important of the greenhouse gases is water vapour, but its amount in the atmosphere is not
changing directly because of human activities. The important greenhouse gases that are directly influenced
by human activities are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and ozone.
 Atmospheric Content of CO2

Source: https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/graphics_gallery/mauna_loa_and_south_pole/mauna_loa_and_south_pole.html
The records kept by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego show that the atmospheric content of
CO2 at the South Pole, and at Mauna Loa in Hawaii (at latitude 20 degrees North), are similar.
CO2 concentration has increased worldwide from 315ppm in 1960 to 410ppm (0.041%, ~4 parts in 10,000) in 2020.
 Colour Key
Global
Temperature
Change

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/long-term-warming-trend-continued-in-2017-nasa-noaa
Using data from 6,300 land and marine-based stations, NASA prepared this map showing Earth’s average global
temperature from 2013 to 2017, as compared to a baseline average from 1951 to 1980. Note that:
• Many Northern areas have experienced warming of more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit (~1.1 deg. C).
• Large areas below 50 degrees South have cooled by 0.5 to 1 degree F.
 Extent of Polar Sea Ice since 1979 NASA/NSIDC sea ice data published in website Climate4you.com

17.963 million km2 18.102 18.395

2.456 2.689

Over the last 41 years, minimum Arctic sea ice (top graph) has reduced from 7.5 million km2 to less than
5 million km2. There has been no significant change in Antarctic sea ice extent (lower graph).
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
The Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graphs,
available on the NSIDC website, report
satellite observations over the last 41
years.
The 2020 observations of Antarctic sea ice,
see at left, lie very close to the 1981-2010
median line. The maximum (2014) and
minimum (2017) values are also shown.
Maximum
Temperature records used to produce the
map diagram in slide 5, and sea ice graphs
of extents over the last 41 years shown in
slide 6, show that warming has been very
apparent in the Northern hemisphere, with
no significant change in Antarctica.
Increasing CO2 content of the atmosphere
over the Antarctic region is having little or
no influence on: (a) the local temperatures,
or (b) the extent of Antarctic sea ice as
recorded by NASA/NSIDC.
Arctic Summer (September) Sea Ice Extent, 1979 to 2019.

NASA/NSIDC maps compiled from satellite image data of the extent of Arctic summer sea ice
record the major reduction from 7.1 million sq.km. to 4.3 million sq.km. over the 40-year period.
Antarctica

In the Southern Ocean, sea ice fringes the entire Antarctic continent. Researchers typically subdivide
Antarctic sea ice into five sectors, each influenced by different geography and weather conditions.
(NASA Earth Observatory map by Joshua Stevens, based on data from the Norwegian Polar Institute and Natural Earth.)
 Antarctic Summer (February) Sea Ice Extent, 1980 to 2020.

According to NSIDC diagrams of satellite images, February 1980 summer sea ice extent averaged 2.8 million sq.km with CO2
content at 330 ppm. This increased to the maximum value ever recorded by NSIDC in February 2013 of 3.8 million sq.km.,
when CO2 content had risen to 385 ppm. However, over that 33-year period there was a notable reduction of ice in the
Bellinghausen and Amundsen Seas areas.
The data for February 2017 shows a record minimum average ice extent of 2.3 million sq.km., with major losses in the Ross
and Amundsen Seas areas. Records of the El Nino phenomenon show a major event from 2014 to 2016, which probably
sent warmer water south. There has since been a recovery of summer ice in those areas, and it reached the most recent
value of summer extent in February 2020 of an average of 2.9 million sq.km. with CO2 content at 410 ppm.
 Antarctic Winter (September) Sea Ice Extent, 1979 to 2019.

Winter sea ice extent reached a maximum of more than 20 million sq.km. in 2014. The most recent NSIDC map
for September 2019 shows an average extent of 18.2 million sq.km. which is exactly equal to the value recorded for
September 1979. The most recent maximum extent of winter sea ice was 18.944 sq.km. on 29th September 2020.
Atmospheric CO2 content increased from 330 ppm to 405 ppm over the 40 year period,
and had no significant influence on sea ice extent.
NASA on Antarctic Sea Ice Extent
NASA published a summary on 16th September 2016: see https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/SeaIce
Quote: “Since 1979, the total annual Antarctic sea ice extent has increased about 1 percent per decade.
Compared to the Arctic, the signal has been a “noisy” one, with wide year–to-year fluctuations. For three
consecutive Septembers (2012 to 2014), satellites observed new record highs for winter sea ice extent
around Antarctica. The largest of those occurred in September 2014, when the ice reached 20.14 million
square kilometers (7.78 million square miles).”
The lower graph of slide 6 clearly shows Antarctic sea ice extent increasing up to year 2014.
NASA’s article continues, quote: “You might wonder how Antarctic sea ice could be increasing while global
warming is raising the planet’s average surface temperature. It’s a question that scientists are asking, too.”
This summary article was still available, unchanged, on 28th September 2020.

Comment
The most convincing hypotheses of science are those where the observations of a phenomenon agree
totally with the theory. It is difficult to accept that CO2 concentration over the Arctic is causing a reduction in
sea ice extent, when the same CO2 concentration over the Antarctic is having negligible influence.
What is happening to world concentration of Water Vapour in the atmosphere?
 Atmospheric Content of Water Vapour
The IPCC Report 2013 can be seen at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf
IPCC AR5 2013 states: ‘Water vapour is the primary greenhouse gas in the Earth’s atmosphere. The
contribution of water vapour to the natural greenhouse effect relative to that of carbon dioxide (CO2)
depends on the accounting method, but can be considered to be approximately two to three times greater.
Additional water vapour is injected into the atmosphere from anthropogenic activities, mostly through
increased evaporation from irrigated crops, but also through power plant cooling (e.g. fossil fuel and nuclear
power station cooling towers), and marginally(?) through the combustion of fossil fuel.’
The percentage of water vapour in the atmosphere is much greater than that of CO2 ,
as described in this quote from: https://climate.ncsu.edu/edu/Composition
‘Water vapor is unique in that its concentration varies from 0 to 4% of the total volume.
In the cold, dry polar regions water vapor accounts for less than 1% of the atmosphere,
while in humid, tropical regions, water vapor can account for almost 4% of the atmosphere.’
Quote From: https://sciencing.com/percentage-water-vapor-atmosphere-19385.html
‘Water vapor, not carbon dioxide, is the Earth's most critical greenhouse gas. Besides the Sun, water vapor
ranks as the second source of Earth's warmth, accounting for about 60 percent(?) of the warming effect.
Water vapor captures and holds warmth from the ground and carries that warmth into the atmosphere.
Water vapor moves heat from the equator toward the poles, distributing heat across the globe.’
 Crop Irrigation

Since 1940, vast areas of normally uncultivated land have been converted to crop production to feed the ever-
increasing world population. Atmospheric water vapour is increased as irrigation water is delivered through
spray heads, and by evapotranspiration from damp soil and mainly from plant leaf stomata.
 Graph and Quote from: https://ourworldindata.org/water-use-stress

“A growing global population and economic shift towards more resource-intensive consumption patterns means global
freshwater use — that is, freshwater withdrawals for agriculture, industry and municipal uses — has increased nearly six-fold
since 1900. This is shown in the chart. Globally we use approximately 70 percent of freshwater withdrawals for agriculture.”
 World Areas subject to increased water vapour flux from Crop Irrigation.

Map + quote from 2005 paper www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0500208102 by Line J. Gordon et al. “Additional local water
vapor flows due to irrigation (mmyr), defined as the change in vapor flows when irrigation is added to actual vegetation. The
total increase in vapor flows amounts to 2,600 km3/year (2,600 billion tonnes/yr).” Note agreement with previous slide amount.
Irrigation is mainly located in the Northern hemisphere. The vapour is carried North by prevailing winds, see slide 17.
https://www.usgs.gov/special-topic/water-science-school/science/evapotranspiration-and-water-cycle?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects

Evapotranspiration and the Water Cycle - USGS

The typical plant, including any found in a landscape, absorbs water
from the soil through its roots. That water is then used for metabolic
and physiologic functions. The water eventually is released to the
atmosphere as vapor via the plant's stomata — tiny, close-able,
pore-like structures on the surfaces of leaves. Overall, this uptake of
water at the roots, transport of water through plant tissues, and
release of vapor by leaves is known as transpiration.
Water also evaporates directly into the atmosphere from soil in the
vicinity of the plant. Scientists refer to the combination of
evaporation and transpiration as evapotranspiration, abbreviated ET.
Credit: Salinity Management Organization
Wikipedia:
Transpiration is the process of water movement through a plant and
its evaporation from aerial parts, such as leaves, stems and flowers.
Water is necessary for plants but only a small amount of water taken
up by the roots is used for growth and metabolism. The remaining
97–99.5% is discharged invisibly to atmosphere by transpiration
through leaf stomata.
 https://www.internetgeography.net/topics/what-is-global- https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-
atmospheric-circulation/ about/weather/atmosphere/global-circulation-patterns

Global Atmospheric Circulations The global circulation

“The sun is our main source of heat, and because of
the tilt of the Earth, its curvature, our atmosphere,
clouds and polar ice and snow, different parts of the
world heat up differently. This sets up a big
temperature difference between the poles and
equator but our global circulation provides a natural
air conditioning system to stop the equator becoming
hotter and hotter, and poles becoming colder and
colder.
Over the major parts of the Earth's surface there are
large-scale wind circulations present. The global
circulation can be described as the world-wide system
of winds by which the necessary transport of heat
from tropical to polar latitudes is accomplished.”
Water vapour released by transpiring plants in
Northern mid-latitudes is carried towards the Arctic
by winds acting in the Ferrel cell.
 http://nsidc.org/soac

Satellite Observations of Arctic Change (SOAC) by NASA/NSIDC

September Sea Ice anomalies show a marked change from

positive to negative at around year 2000. There is a strong
correlation with the change to positive values of Total Column
Water Vapour at around the same time.

Significantly increased water vapour anomalies after year 2000

are also recorded for the months of April, May, June, July, and
August.

Crop irrigation in the northern hemisphere occurs during the

spring and summer months, which very likely explains the
increase in atmospheric water vapour over the Arctic area.

Slides 6 and 8 show that Arctic summer sea ice extent has
greatly reduced - most obviously after year 2000, which agrees
with the top bar chart above.

Figure 7 compares Sea Ice Extent and TCWV for month September (Summer) in years 1980 to 2017.
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Means of transport, construction, warmed (or cooled) buildings, and power stations have all traditionally
depended on fossil fuels, such as: coal, petrol, diesel and natural gas. The consumption of natural gas has
greatly increased over the last 50 years because it is relatively easy to: a) produce, and b) transport by
pipeline or in liquefied form (LNG). Its products of combustion are relatively clean, compared to coal and oil.

On combustion, all fossil fuels form water vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2) and release HEAT.

Using methane (the main constituent of natural gas) as an example:

Molecular weights in this equation are: 16 + 64 = 36 + 44, which means that

during complete combustion, 1kg of methane combines with 4 kg of oxygen to produce:
a) 2.25 kg of water vapour,
b) 2.75 kg of carbon dioxide, and
c) 55.2 MJ of heat energy.
 Data from page 34: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf

World consumption of natural gas in 2019 was approximately 3900 billion cubic metres, see table above,
which converts to 2.7 billion tonnes. On complete combustion, it produced around:
a) 6 billion tonnes of hot water vapour, and b) 7 billion tonnes of hot CO2.
Combustion of other hydrocarbon fuels adds water vapour, CO2 and heat to the atmosphere. 60% of nuclear
power station energy is discharged as warm water vapour from cooling towers.
Quote from IPCC Report 2013: “With every extra degree C of air temperature, the atmosphere can retain
around 7% more water vapour.” World energy consumption - for vehicles, houses, power stations, factories,
office buildings, construction sites and aircraft (vapour trails) - causes the Urban Heat Island effect in cities,
and adds a relatively small quantity of water vapour compared to that from irrigation.
 Equator

Crop irrigation and emissions from energy use are located in the areas of the world occupied by humans.
World human population has increased from 1 billion in year 1800, to 7.7 billion in 2020.
Most people live in cities in the northern hemisphere, see chart above.
Cities experience the Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect. For example, the temperature in London is generally
around 2 degrees Centigrade higher than the surrounding countryside.
There are approximately 4 million people living north of the Arctic Circle (66.5 deg N). Many of them are in
Russia, which includes the cities of Murmansk (population 295,374), and Norilsk (178,018) . Smaller cities in
these latitudes are in Norway, Sweden and Finland. There are no permanent human inhabitants in Antarctica.
The El Nino weather feature arising in the Pacific Ocean brings warm water current to South American coasts
every 2 to 7 years. It is more likely to affect conditions in Antarctica than in the Arctic. The major El Nino during
years 2014 to 2016 was probably responsible for reduced thickness of the ice shelf in the Pacific Ocean Sector.
Extreme Weather

2019-20 bushfires consumed an area of 18.6 million hectares in Australia, but those of 1974 affected an
area of 117 million hectares. Bushfires, as recently experienced in California, occur regularly in all areas
subject to occasional hot, dry summers. They can be started by lightning strikes, or human activity, for
example: insufficient care with picnic BBQs.

The Centre for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) advises that “globally, about 70 to 110 tropical storms
form each year, with about 40 to 60 reaching hurricane strength. Records show large year-to-year changes
in the number and intensity of these storms.”

In the year 1900, a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds in excess of 130 mph (113 knots) killed
around 10,000 people in the US city of Galveston, Texas. There were no cars and no aircraft in the world
in 1900, and there were 6 billion fewer humans.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has plotted the accumulated energy per
annum of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones over 68 years to 2016, see next slide.
 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-
bin/data/climateindices/corr.pl?tstype1=46&custname1=&custtitle1=&tstype2=0&custname2=&custtitle2=&year1=&year2=&itypea=0&y1=&y2=&plotstyle=0&length=&lag=&iall=0&iseas=1&mon1=
0&mon2=11&Submit=Calculate+Results

The graph shows a decline in Atlantic Storm Energy over the first half of the period, rising to a peak in 2005, but
subsequently falling. There is no correlation with ‘global warming’.
Benefits of 1 degree C Temperature Rise
1. The Taiga or Boreal conifer forests extending from latitude 50 degrees North to the Arctic Circle
contain a third of all the trees on Earth. They only grow when the average ambient temperature per day
exceeds 5 degrees Centigrade. The noted one degree C increase in northern hemisphere temperatures
must be helping these Russian and Canadian forests to grow.
All plants and phytoplankton benefit from increased carbon dioxide.

2. People living in areas where their homes need added heat in the winter will benefit from
lower requirement for ‘central heating’ (and therefore lower associated cost).

3. There will be fewer deaths from hypothermia.

4. There will be fewer road accidents due to less snow and ice.

5. Fewer pipes will burst due to freezing up.

6. There will be less personal tendency to slip on ice.

7. There will be reduced need to clear snow away.

8. Golfers and footballers will have reduced periods of course/ground closures.

Conclusions
1. Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from human activities have led to an increase in atmospheric content –
worldwide - from 315 ppm in 1960 to 412 ppm (0.0412%, or 4+ parts in 10,000) in 2020.
2. According to observations by NASA, there has been no significant change in Antarctic temperatures or sea
ice extent. Glacier growth in latitudes of 50o South also confirms that little or no climate change can be
attributed to atmospheric CO2 acting like a blanket and trapping the Sun’s heat.
3. According to the IPCC and other climate experts, water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas.
Its atmospheric content can be as high as 4% in tropical regions (almost 100 times that of CO2).
4. The ~2.6 trillion tonnes per year of water used for crop irrigation is mainly located in the Northern
hemisphere, and most of it is added invisibly to atmosphere by evapotranspiration. The water vapour is
carried further North by prevailing winds to the Arctic Area. This increase in atmospheric water vapour has
caused climate warming, and a significant reduction in Arctic sea ice extent.
5. Fossil and nuclear fuel consumption (for human activities of warmed or cooled buildings, factories,
construction, and travel by land, sea and air) has caused minor emissions of water vapour and heat.
6. According to NASA, sea level is rising at 3mm per year. A large percentage of irrigation water is withdrawn
from underground aquifers and this contributes to the noted rise in sea level.
7. It would help if total world human population can be controlled to a sustainable number.