WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 48, W08503, doi:10.

1029/2011WR011755, 2012

Water for cities: The impact of climate change and demographic

growth in the tropical Andes
W. Buytaert1 and B. De Bièvre2
Received 14 December 2011; revised 2 May 2012; accepted 4 June 2012; published 3 August 2012.
[1] Globally, water resources for cities are under increasing stress. Two main stressors are
climate change and population growth, but evaluating their relative impact is difficult,
especially because of the complex topology of water supply. This is especially true in the
tropical Andes, which is a region with strong climatic gradients and topographical limits to
water resources. This paper presents an evaluation of both stressors on water resources
in a geospatial framework to identify gradients in water availability that may lead to
conflicts over water use. We focus on four major cities in, or receiving water from, the
tropical Andes. A multimodel data set of 19 climate models is used as input for a regional
water balance model. Per capita water availability is evaluated along topographic gradients
for the present and for future scenarios of population growth and climate change. In all
cases, the median projection of climate change suggests a relatively limited impact on water
availability, but uncertainties are large. Despite these uncertainties, we find that the expected
demographic changes are very likely to outpace the impact of climate change on water
availability and should therefore be the priority for local policy making. However,
distinctive geospatial patterns characterize the supply systems of the studied cities,
highlighting the need to analyze the topology of water supply within an ecosystem services
context. Our approach is flexible enough to be extended to other regions, stressors and water
resources topologies.
Citation: Buytaert, W., and B. De Bièvre (2012), Water for cities: The impact of climate change and demographic growth in the
tropical Andes, Water Resour. Res., 48, W08503, doi:10.1029/2011WR011755.

1. Introduction resources are dominated by surface water stores such as

[2] Climate change is expected to have a major impact
on water resources worldwide [e.g., Vörösmarty et al., 2000;
Bates et al., 2008]. Changes in the precipitation regime affect
surface and subsurface water fluxes directly, while increases
in temperature will lead to increased evapotranspiration and
therefore less runoff and recharge of groundwater resources.
[3] Cities are particularly vulnerable to such changes. The
global trend of urbanization and the growing population of
cities require increasing volumes of water to be extracted and
transported [Hunt and Watkiss, 2011]. Securing sufficient
supplies of freshwater for growing cities is therefore of pri-
mary concern, and may be seriously hindered by the spatial
and temporal variability of water demand and supply. This
is especially challenging in mountain regions such as the
tropical Andes. A combination of population growth and
migration causes quickly changing demographies, which
may conflict with extreme variations in water availability.
Groundwater resources are often limited or difficult to
locate, quantify and exploit. Therefore, mountainous water
1
Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London,
UK.
2
CONDESAN, Quito, Ecuador.
Corresponding author: W. Buytaert, Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Imperial College London, Skempton Building, SW7 2AZ
London, UK. (w.buytaert@imperial.ac.uk)
©2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
0043-1397/12/2011WR011755
W08503
wetlands and glaciers [Vuille et al., 2008; Buytaert et al.,
2011a]. Contrary to most groundwater resources, these
stores are much smaller and governed by strongly seasonal
patterns such as precipitation rates and melting. Human
perturbations and especially climate change are expected
to exert strong and direct changes on the availability and
seasonality of these sources [Viviroli et al., 2011]. Poten-
tial degradation or decrease of water availability may have
disproportionately severe consequences, because the steep
topography of mountain areas complicates the transport of
water over large distances.
[4] Especially in mountain areas, water resources are
under severe stress. Erosion, deforestation and other degra-
dation typical for steep areas all pose significant threats to the
water supply of mountain areas [Buytaert et al., 2006a;
Viviroli et al., 2011, amongst others]. Also, climate models
project a stronger effect of global warming in tropical
mountain regions compared to lowlands [Still et al., 1999;
Bradley et al., 2006]. This is attributed to two processes.
A higher air moisture content results in a lower rate of change
of temperature with altitude (lapse rate), which may exacer-
bate warming at higher elevations. Additionally, an inten-
sification of the Hadley circulation may enhance the effect
in the tropics [Bradley et al., 2009]. Many regions are also
expected to experience longer or stronger dry seasons
[Beniston, 2003]. However, the coarse resolution of global
climate models (GCMs) does not represent the complex
topography and steep climatological gradients of mountain
regions. As such, mountains are often identified as regions of
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Table 1. Population Statistics of the Studied Countries and Citiesa

2010 2000–2010 2005–2050
Population Observed Growth Projected Growth Growth Rate Growth Rate
Country (106) (%) (%) (Country) City (City)
Colombia 46.30 16.4 46.1 1.35b Bogotá 1.82b
Ecuador 13.77 11.9 37.7 2.10c Quito 2.42c
Peru 29.50 13.4 42.9 1.55d Lima 2.00d
Bolivia 10.03 20.6 62.4 2.82e La Paz 2.36e
a
The population, 2000–2010 observed growth, and 2005–2050 projected growth are extracted from the UNDP medium growth scenarios. The exponential
growth rates are from national census data.
b
Period 1995–2005, source Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística, Colombia.
c
Period 1990–2001, source Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, Ecuador.
d
Period 1995–2005, source Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática, Peru.
e
Period 1993–2007, source Instituto Nacional de Estadística de Bolivia.

high uncertainty in GCMs [Buytaert et al., 2011b; Viviroli
et al., 2011]. Last, the importance of mountain water
resources tends to stretch beyond the local scale, as their
runoff provides water supply for adjacent, often drier low-
lands [Viviroli et al., 2007].
[5] For these reasons, assessing current and future water
availability for mountain cities is complicated. For reasons of
data availability and computing requirements, global and
regional studies [e.g., Vörösmarty et al., 2000; Döll et al.,
2003; Siebert and Döll, 2010; Vörösmarty et al., 2010] tend
to be restricted to low resolutions that may not resolve the
topographical barriers that limit water supply in and around
mountain environments. Alternatively, local case studies can
be much better tailored to local data availability [e.g.,
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú,
2007a, 2007b; Buytaert et al., 2011b], but they tend to dis-
regard regional linkages. For instance, upstream-downstream
dependencies may reach far beyond the water supply system
of the city. Interbasin water transfers may resolve local
shortages but create others, and economic adaptation (e.g.,
relocation of water intensive industries) may significantly
change water requirements. As a result, there is an urgent
need to reevaluate water availability and access at a high
spatial and temporal resolution.
[6] This study bridges the gap between local and regional-
scale assessments of threats to city water supply in geo-
graphically complex regions, using the tropical Andes as a
study case. The strong gradients in precipitation and topog-
raphy invalidate typical regional assessments of water
availability, as topographic barriers and altitudinal differ-
ences may constrain or inhibit water transfers.
[7] At the same time all countries of the tropical Andes
have experienced double digit growth (Table 1) over the last
decade and are projected to grow between 38% and 62% by
2050 using a medium growth scenario [United Nations
Population Division (UNDP), 2008]. Such an increasing
concentration of the population exacerbates difficulties
to provide sufficient access to safe drinking water [Gray,
2009]. Water supply systems will have to be improved and
expanded, and new sources of safe water will have to be
found. The evolution also tends to disfavor particularly the
poor populations of slums and city extensions outside the city
planning perimeter [Gerlach and Franceys, 2010].
[8] Using recent projections of climate change and popu-
lation growth, we develop a methodology to analyze the
impact of both stressors on the evolution of water resources,
and especially upstream-downstream gradients and apply it
to four major cities in the tropical Andes: Bogotá, Quito,
Lima and La Paz (Figure 1). This study focuses on the time
horizons of 2010–2039 and 2040–2069, which are most rel-
evant for water supply. The A1B and A2 SRES emission
scenarios are used for the climate change projections. This
choice is based on both an adequate coverage of future eco-
nomic evolution, and data availability. Being a subset of the
A1 family of scenarios, A1B is a moderate scenario charac-
terized by strong economic growth but a balanced emphasis
on all energy sources while A2 is an extreme scenario based
on a regionally oriented economic development. We use the
World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data
set, which provides projections for both of these scenarios for
19 models. The use of a multimodel data set of climate
models allows us to account for uncertainties in those pro-
jections. Anomalies are calculated between the 1961–1990
simulation baseline and future climate projections. These
anomalies are applied to observed climatologies. The result-
ing projections are routed through a water balance model to
estimate average water availability. The latter is then asses-
sed along river transects using a topography based routing
model.
2. Methods
2.1. Study Region
[9] This study focuses on the tropical Andes, which
includes the Andes of Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, Colombia, and
Venezuela (Figure 1). In all countries, significant economic
activity is located in the Andean region where water resources
are under stress.
[10] The climate and water availability in the tropical
Andes is extremely variable, and governed by various large-
scale climate processes [Vuille et al., 2000a, 2000b]. The
Pacific Humboldt current provides cool and dry air masses to
the Pacific slopes and highlands of Bolivia and Peru, which
leads to arid or semiarid climates. Further north along the
Pacific coast, a tropical humid climate is induced by the
warm and moist air masses originating in the equatorial
Pacific. Extremes are found on the Pacific slopes of the
Colombian Andes, which experience rainfall close to the
highest values registered on the planet. The eastern slopes of
the Andes are perennially wet under the influence of the
Amazon basin. Finally, the interandean valleys are typically
drier than the eastern side since most of the air masses have
lost their humidity during the orographic uplift on the outer
slopes of the Andes. Overall, precipitation patterns are highly
variable, ranging from over 8000 mm yr
1 on the Pacific

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Figure 1. Maps of (left) effective precipitation and (right) population density for the study region. Blue
lines indicate rivers flowing through the studied cities, with the transects of Figure 6 highlighted in bold.

slopes in Colombia, 3000 mm yr
1 on the outer Amazonian
slopes to less than 100 mm yr
1 in large parts of the high-
lands of Bolivia and the Peruvian coast.
[11] Observations of a changing climate over the last
decades have caused strong concerns. Near-surface tem-
peratures show an increase of about 0.7 C over the past seven
decades (1939–2006 [Vuille et al., 2008]). Of the last 20
years only two (1996 and 1999) were below the long-term
(1961–1990) average. Analyses of changes in freezing level
height over the North American Cordillera and the Andes,
based on the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, show an increase
of 73 m between 1948 and 2000. For 1958 and 2000, which
is a period where the data are considered more reliable, it is
53 m [Diaz et al., 2003]. The expected increased warming at
higher elevations is hard to verify due to the lack of long and
reliable observational records. But recent reports from the
Andes of Peru, which show that daily maximum tempera-
tures now rise well above the freezing temperature between
October and May even at elevations as high as 5680 m sup-
port this assumption [Bradley et al., 2009].
[12] Changes in precipitation over the 20th century are
harder to detect because of the intrinsic variability over the
Andes [e.g., Vuille and Keimig, 2004; Villar et al., 2008;
Bookhagen and Strecker, 2008]. Precipitation tends to
increase north of 11 S, in Ecuador, while in southern Peru
and along the Peru/Bolivia border most stations indicate a
decrease in precipitation Vuille et al. [2003]; Haylock et al.
[2006]. Outgoing longwave radiation, which is indicative of
convective activity and precipitation, shows a significant
decrease over the tropical Andes in austral summer [Vuille
et al., 2003, 2008]. In the outer tropics (south of 10 S) the
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trend is reversed, featuring an increase in outgoing long-
wave radiation. While these trends are weak and largely
insignificant, they are consistent with projected changes in
precipitation for the end of the 21st century by the Inter-
governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assess-
ment report model ensemble [Vera et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007].
2.2. Data
[13] Climate projections of the CMIP3 data set are used
for the periods 2010–2039 and 2040–2069. For reasons of
comparability we used the same number of models (19) for
both the A1B and A2 scenarios. Although studies highlight
the variable performance of global climate models in the
tropical Andes [Mulligan et al., 2011], we did not weight the
models in the data set. The main reason for this is the diffi-
culty to define adequate weights, because different models
dominate in different geographical regions and for different
variables. Furthermore, it is questionable whether past model
performance can be carried through to future projections
[Stainforth et al., 2007], especially because we use anom-
alies rather than absolute projections. Therefore, we consider
the multimodel data set as a nondiscountable envelope of
uncertainty [Stainforth et al., 2007]. The CMIP3 models used
in this study are (using CMIP3 abbreviation conventions)
bccr_bcm2_0, cccma_cgcm3_1, cnrm_cm3, csiro_mk3_0,
csiro_mk3_5, gfdl_cm2_0, gfdl_cm2_1, giss_model_er,
ingv_echam4, inmcm3_0, ipsl_cm4, miroc3_2medres, miub_
echo_g, mpi_echam5, mri_cgcm2_32a, ncar_ccsm3_0,
ncar_pcm1, ukmo_hadcm3 and ukmo_hadgem1. The reso-
lution of the GCMs ranges between 1.3 and 5 . Therefore,
W08503 BUYTAERT AND DE BIÈVRE: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ANDEAN WATER RESOURCES
the maps were resampled at a common resolution of 10 min
before being applied to the observed climatologies.
[14] Precipitation data were extracted from the world-
wide monthly 10 min resolution climatology of New et al.
[2000]. For land cover, we used the recent high-resolution
(1 km) ecosystem map for the tropical Andes generated by
Josse et al. [2009]. The ecosystems were aggregated to
major vegetation zones differentiated by their hydrologi-
cal behavior: wetlands, high-altitudinal grasslands, semiarid
high-elevation grasslands, montane forest, xerophytic forest,
deserts, agricultural systems, urban areas and glaciers.
[15] Global reference evapotranspiration maps at 10 min
resolution were obtained from the Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO) geonetwork
[Allen et al., 1998].
[16] A 1 km resolution population density map was
obtained from the Gridded Population of the World, version
3 (GPWv3) project [Center for International Earth Science
Information Network et al., 2005]. Future population
growth estimates were extracted from the UN World Popu-
lation Prospects [UNDP, 2008]. We used the three available
scenarios (high, medium, and low). Note that the A1B
emission scenario is based on a population growth close to
the UN medium scenario, while the A2 emission scenario is
close to the UN high growth scenario. However, we use the
three scenarios in this study to give an indication of the
uncertainties involved in the scenarios. The growth estimates
are only availably at country level, and were therefore
applied homogeneously, not accounting for internal differ-
ences in growth rate. This is most likely an underestimation
for the cities considered in this study, as they are expected to
grow quicker than the country average.
2.3. Downscaling and Hydrological Modeling
[17] The delta method was used for downscaling [Maraun
et al., 2010]. For each month of the year, relative and abso-
lute anomalies of the projected precipitation and mean sur-
face temperature, respectively, were calculated from the
CMIP3 multimodel data set. Anomalies were averaged over
the respective time periods. These anomalies were applied to
the observed climatologies [New et al., 2000].
[18] Rainfall-runoff models have been applied for the
purpose of studying the impact of climate change on water
resources in the tropical Andes and similar regions [e.g.,
Buytaert et al., 2009, 2011a; Todd et al., 2011]. Such models
require high-resolution precipitation and evapotranspiration
time series. The lack of availability or too low quality of such
data prohibit the application of rainfall-runoff models on the
scale of our study area. Therefore a water balance model was
adopted instead. This approach comes at the expense of not
resolving the temporal variability of hydrological processes
and water resources, but is believed to reveal patterns of
average water availability and seasonality in a more robust
manner.
[19] A water balance model was developed for the study
region. Because of the limited number of climate variables
available for most GCMs, the Thornthwaite relation between
temperature and potential evapotranspiration (ETp) was used
to calculate present and future evapotranspiration. Given
the potential bias of this method, the ratio between present
and future potential evapotranspiration was calculated and
applied to the historic reference evapotranspiration (ET0) as
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obtained by the FAO Penman Monteith method [Allen et al.,
1998]:


1
ET0; fut ¼ ET0;FAO;hist ETp;TW ; fut ETp;TW ;hist ð1Þ
where the subscripts FAO and TW indicate the calcula-
tion methods of FAO Penman Monteith and Thornthwaite,
respectively, and hist and fut indicate the historical and future
time periods. Subsequently, potential evapotranspiration is
calculated using a vegetation coefficient Kv for each vegeta-
tion type:
ETp; fut ¼ Kv ET0; fut : ð2Þ
[20] Actual evapotranspiration ETa is then calculated using
the Bodyko equation as implemented by Oudin et al. [2008]:
(    "  #)0:5
ETp ETp ETp
1
ETa ¼ 1
1
exp
tanh : ð3Þ
E T P
[21] Last, future effective precipitation Peff, fut is calcu-
lated as the difference between future precipitation Pfut and
future actual evapotranspiration ETa, fut:
Peff; fut ¼ Pfut
ETa; fut : ð4Þ
[22] This is a reasonable proxy for water available for
human extraction, as it counts both surface water and
groundwater resources.
[23] The resulting model has only one parameter per
vegetation type, the vegetation coefficient for evapotrans-
piration (Kv), which was estimated from available literature
on the hydrological properties of vegetation in the study
region [Josse et al., 2009; Buytaert et al., 2006b; Bruijnzeel
and Veneklaas, 1998]. For glaciers, an equivalent of the
vegetation coefficient was calculated empirically from liter-
ature values of glacier runoff [Mark and Mckenzie, 2007;
Villacis, 2008].
[24] Future changes in vegetation patterns and glacial
extent were derived from bioclimate envelope modeling
[Guisan and Zimmerman, 2011].
2.4. Water Availability
[25] Most water resources figures are calculated at a
country or regional level [e.g., FAO, 2003]. This approach is
of little use to countries in the tropical Andes. Extreme gra-
dients in water availability exist, which are difficult to over-
come because of topographic barriers. Therefore we trace
water availability along topographical gradients to identify
the impact of stressors on water availability and its gradients.
A similar approach was used by Vörösmarty et al. [2010] at a
global scale and a coarser resolution.
[26] The approach is based on the consideration that in
mountain environments, the cost of extracting water from
within a hydrological basin is much lower than either inter-
basin transfers or the extraction of water from lower areas.
The latter two options require large investments in infrastruc-
ture (e.g., tunnels), operational costs (pumping) or a combi-
nation of both. Therefore, water supply areas are naturally
restricted to local upstream areas where water can be extracted
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Figure 2

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by gravity. In this paper, we do not consider interbasin
transfers, even though reality of water demand has already
led to this kind of solution, e.g., interbasin transfers feed the
water supply of Quito, Bogotá and Lima. However, as dis-
cussed further on, the impact of such measures can be easily
added to the analysis. For a similar reason, extraction from
nonrenewable resources (e.g., fossil groundwater) is not
considered.
[27] Under this consideration, water availability along a
gradient for a hydrological basin can be calculated by
dividing the total annual runoff through each point by the
total population living upstream. This can be considered a
natural water availability, which can be accessed without
major infrastructure works such as basin transfers.
[28] This approach captures the fact that high-elevation
communities and cities are potentially more vulnerable to
local changes in water availability because of their lower
catchment area. Large populations at lower elevations, even
though they may be located in drier regions, may be more
resilient because the can rely on water resources from a larger
upstream catchment area. The approach is similar to the
topology of mountain water resources as presented by
Viviroli et al. [2007].
[29] We consider the areal average of effective precipita-
tion as a proxy for available water at a basin scale. This
approximation assumes that groundwater recharge is either
insignificant or that groundwater flows do not cross catch-
ment borders. One reason is of a practical nature: the com-
plexity and lack of knowledge of groundwater resources in
the Andes makes it impossible to model them adequately.
But mountain areas also tend to be dominated by surface
water flows and shallow subsurface flows that may eventu-
ally resurface. This implies that the error of disregarding
regional groundwater fluxes may be small and secondary to
the errors of the input data and models.
[30] Last, we use the definitions of Falkenmark and
Wistrand [1992] for water stress (<1700 m3 capita
1) and
water scarcity (<1000 m3 capita
1). Although these thresh-
olds are developed for regional assessment and therefore may
be questionable at the basin scale, they are provided here as
a common reference base. It is straightforward to replace
them with thresholds that reflect water demand based on an
analysis of the local socioeconomic and ecological setting.
However, this is beyond the scope of this study.
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. GCM Projections for the Tropical Andes
[31] Figure 2 shows the average, range and consistency of
the GCM ensemble simulations of temperature and precipi-
tation in the tropical Andes for the A1B scenario and period
2040–2069. Using the median of the 19 CMIP3 models, an
increase in precipitation of around 7.5–10% is expected over
most of the inner tropical Andes, while the outer tropics tend
to experience a decrease in precipitation (Figures 2b and 2f).
This is consistent with the expected intensification of the
Hadley circulation and the related increase of precipitation in
the intertropical convergence zone, as well as alterations of
the Walker circulation [IPCC, 2007]. The drying in the outer
tropics is most pronounced for the Venezuelan Andes, which
are influenced by the North Atlantic easterly trade winds.
This is the region with the highest agreement among models
on the direction of the change (Figure 2h), with a median
projection of around 20% less precipitation. Temperature
projections are much more homogeneous over the study
region, with an increase of around 3 C and a tendency of
stronger warming over the continent (Figure 2b).
[32] However, the variability between model projections is
considerable. Disagreement in the magnitude of the precipi-
tation anomalies is often higher than 50% of the currently
observed precipitation (Figure 2g), while temperature pro-
jections show a range of typically 2–3 C. Even more striking
is the lack of agreement between the models on the sign of
the change of precipitation. This disagreement has been
observed and analyzed extensively over the Amazon basin in
recent literature [e.g., Malhi et al., 2009], but far less for the
Andes where model uncertainties are expected to be higher
because of the complex climate system. It is therefore sur-
prising that the Andes do not stand out as a region with a
particularly high model uncertainty in the projection ranges
(Figures 2c and 2g). However, in the 20th century control
runs (20C3M) for precipitation (Figures 2a and 2e), the
Andes region and its surroundings are clearly visible as a
region with a higher variation in model simulations com-
pared to the surrounding areas (Pacific Ocean and Amazon
basin). This strongly suggests that the difficulties in repre-
senting the current climate are a major source of uncertainty
and that future projections should be treated with care.
3.2. Water Balance Projections
[33] The impacts of climate change are expected to be
twofold. Changes in precipitation will affect water avail-
ability directly, while an increase in temperature will have an
impact on evapotranspiration rates. The impact of each of
them separately is presented in Figure 3. As mentioned
above, we use the difference between precipitation and actual
evapotranspiration as calculated by the regional water bal-
ance model as a proxy for physical water availability.
[34] The impact of temperature is unequivocally negative,
because of the direct relation between temperature and the
energy available for evapotranspiration losses. The relative
impact typically ranges between
10% and
20% and is
quite uniform. Stronger relative impacts are observed in
regions that either experience stronger heating (e.g., the
Amazon basin) or are already under water scarcity (e.g., the
outer tropical Andes). In the Bolivian highlands, decreases of
up to 40% are observed (Figure 3).
[35] The impact of changes in precipitation on water
availability follow a trend closely related to the expected
changes in precipitation regime (Figure 1), and may either be

Figure 2. Overview of the CMIP3 projections of future changes in temperature and precipitation for the tropical Andes.
(a and e) Range between the models in representing the past climate (20C3M scenario, 1961–1990). (b and f ) Ensemble
median of the projected anomalies in precipitation (%) and temperature (degrees) for the SRES A1B emission scenario for
the period 2040–2069. (c and g) CMIP3 model ensemble range of the projected anomalies in precipitation (%) and temper-
ature ( C) for the SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2040–2069. (d and h) Areas (in gray) where 80% of more of
the models agree on the direction of the change.
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Figure 3. Dissection of the drivers of the future change (%) in effective precipitation for the tropical
Andes and the surrounding areas, using the median of the CMIP3 ensemble. (top) Impact of the change
in precipitation keeping the temperature at 1961–1990 levels. (middle) Impact of increasing temperature,
keeping precipitation at 1961–1990 levels. (bottom) Combined impact of precipitation and temperature
change. White areas have a current yearly average precipitation of 0 mm yr
1 and therefore an undefined
relative change.

negative (Caribbean coast, Chilean coast and Chilean-
Bolivian highlands, eastern Amazonia) or positive (western
Amazonia and most of the tropical Andes).
[36] In several regions, the expected increase in precipita-
tion may compensate for increased evapotranspiration rates.
This occurs over most of the Ecuadorian Andes and the
southern Colombian Andes (A1B and A2 scenarios), and
part of the Peruvian and Bolivian Andes (A1B scenario).
The resulting changes in available water are small, and typ-
ically range between 0 and +10% (Figures 1 and 2). Where
changes in precipitation and temperature reinforce each
other, this gives rise to strong relative decreases in effective
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precipitation, as can be observed over the Caribbean, the
Bolivian highlands and the Chilean coast.
[37] Combined with simulations of actual effective pre-
cipitation, these projections can be used to assess tendencies
in changing water availability over the tropical Andes.
3.3. Assessing Local Water Resources
3.3.1. The Impact of Geographical Gradients
[38] Assessment of the current and future effective pre-
cipitation (Figures 3 and 4) reveals that regions that are
already characterized as semiarid or arid are prone to become
drier, while humid regions such as the Ecuadorian and north
W08503 BUYTAERT AND DE BIÈVRE: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ANDEAN WATER RESOURCES W08503

Figure 4. Current values (gray line) of (top) total and (bottom) effective precipitation (mm yr
1) and
future projections for different future time periods and emission scenarios. The histograms of the 19 CMIP3
models are smoothed with a kernel density function. Note that all projections of effective precipitation for
Lima are zero and therefore coincide with the observed value.

Peruvian Amazon show a tendency of becoming hydrologi-
cally wetter. This is compatible with other climate change
impact studies in the region (for an overview, see Vuille et al.
[2008]).
[39] From a water resources perspective, a low effective
precipitation does not necessarily result in an urgent water
scarcity or stress. In the tropical Andes, population densities
are highly variable, and water availability is often enhanced
by runoff from nearby highlands [Messerli et al., 2004;
Viviroli et al., 2007]. For instance, in the Ecuadorian high-
lands, rivers descending from the humid upper Andean
grasslands (páramos) generally provide a reliable and good
quality water source for extraction downstream [Buytaert
et al., 2011a]. The arid Pacific coast of Peru has developed
as a regional agricultural and industrial hot spot thanks to
runoff from the nearby Andes (Figures 1 and 4).
[40] Under such conditions it is useful to assess water
availability at a basin scale to take into account that upland
communities may be more vulnerable to changing water
resources than lowland communities, as the latter may be
able to source water from scarcely populated uplands. Such
analysis may also reveal regions where upland impacts of
water extraction can generate conditions of water scarcity
further downstream.
[41] Performing this analysis for four major cities in the
tropical Andes (Bogotá, Quito, Lima and La Paz; Figure 5)
reveals strong differences in the upstream-downstream
interactions and future changes between the cases. Bogotá
and Quito are high-altitude cities (resp. 2650 and 2850 m
altitude) located in steep mountainous terrain and restricted
in their water access. Their high population density locally
generates severe water scarcity and stress within their
respective basins (Figure 6). For that reason, both cities need
to rely on interbasin transfer schemes for their water supply,
drawing water resources from the wet Amazonian slopes of
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the eastern Andes mountain range [Unidad Administrativa
Especial Sistema de Parques Nacionales Naturales, 2000;
De Bièvre and Coello, 2008]. For instance, Quito currently
draws 62% of its urban water supply from the Amazon basin
(around 4.5 m3 s
1), which is expected to increase to over
80% of its supply by 2050 [De Bièvre and Coello, 2008].
[42] This geographically restricts the water supply area
and makes them vulnerable for shocks in the supply system,
including changes in the ecosystems that provide the water
supply service such as tropical wetlands [Buytaert et al.,
2011a].
[43] However, even though the cities themselves have a
strong impact on local water availability, the downstream
propagation of water scarcity is limited. Both cities are
located at the headwaters of rivers that flow toward humid
regions. As such, once tributaries with less densely populated
areas join the mean river stream any impacts on water
availability decrease rapidly (Figure 6). A similar trend can
be observed for La Paz, where severe water scarcity exists at
the altitude of the city, although downstream recovery of
water availability is slower than for Quito and Bogotá
because of the drier climate.
[44] The situation for Lima is different. As the second
largest desert city in the world (Figure 2), it relies strongly on
water resources from the western slopes of the Andes, which
are wetter and scarcely populated. Indeed, in their head-
waters, none of the rivers descending the western slope of
the Peruvian Andes has issues of water stress, but they
all exhibit conditions of water scarcity when reaching the
highly urbanized coast (Figures 4 and 5). In terms of water
resources, Lima is locked by the coastline, and must therefore
rely on interbasin transfers to increase its water supply.
Although these transfers may be easier to implement because
of lowland topography, they may face strong competition for
water resources from intensive agricultural activities in the
W08503 BUYTAERT AND DE BIÈVRE: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ANDEAN WATER RESOURCES W08503

Figure 5. Water availability (m3 person
1 yr
1) along river streams relative to the population living in the
upstream area for four major cities in the tropical Andes and under different scenarios of climate change and
demographic growth. Present is scenario with 2005 population density and 1961–1990 climatologies.
Medium growth is scenario with the UN medium population growth scenario for 2050 and 1961–1990
climatologies. A2 plus medium growth is scenario with the UN medium population growth scenario
for 2050 and the median projections of the A2 scenario for 2040–2069. Population density is indicated
by gray shading. Coordinates are in 106 m (sinusoidal projection zone 71).

coastal desert. Indeed, new water supply schemes use inter-
basin transfers from subbasins of the Mantaro river, a tribu-
tary of the Amazon. As a result, any upstream disturbances
that will negatively affect water availability or quality, such
as mining or increased irrigation, will propagate downstream
and put severe stress on the water resources of a potentially
large area. Similar issues are to be expected in regions such
as the Peruvian Sechura desert, where large-scale irrigation
relies on water from the adjacent highlands.
[45] Last, it should be noted that this study does not con-
sider impacts on water quality or the impacts of ineffective
distribution. Although the effect of pollution also dilutes
downstream, it is likely to persist for a longer distance. This
may be especially important in many regions of the tropical
Andes, where mining activities are widespread and expected
to increase in the future [Bebbington et al., 2008]. Also, some
of the future shortages in water can be resolved by improving
the efficiency of water supply systems, which are often
characterized by large losses. On the other hand, improving
and extending the water supply systems to areas currently
devoid of supply such as slums, is expected to increase the
water use per capita.
3.3.2. The Impact of Demographic Growth
[46] The question remains as how the impact of other
stressors compares to that of climate change. For city water
supply, population growth is potentially a major factor.
Comparing the impact of demographic growth to that of cli-
mate change along the river transects (Figure 6 and Figure S1
in the auxiliary material)1 reveals a clear impact of demo-
graphic growth. Irrespective of the location and the emission
scenario, all demographic growth scenarios fall outside the
interquartile range of the climate projections for the 2040–
2069 time period. For Lima and La Paz, the high growth
scenario of population growth exceeds that of any of the
19 climate models used in this study.
[47] Moreover, historical census data show that all these
cities have been growing at rates above the national average
(Table 1). These divergent growth rates were not taken into
account in this study because of the lack of availability of
future growth projections for these cities. However, it is
likely this trend will continue for the foreseeable future
1
Auxiliary materials are available in the HTML. doi:10.1029/
2011WR011755.

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W08503 BUYTAERT AND DE BIÈVRE: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ANDEAN WATER RESOURCES W08503

Figure 6. Water availability for the upstream population along the river transects running through Bogotá
(Rio Bogotá), Quito (Guayllabamba), Lima (Rimac) and La Paz (Choqueyapu) for different scenarios.
Solid black line indicates 2005 population and 1961–1990 climatologies. Dashed lines indicate UN popu-
lation growth scenarios for 2050 and 1961–1990 climatologies. Blue indicates range (light blue) and inter-
quartile range (dark blue) of the A1B emission scenario, period 2040–2069. Yellow and red lines indicate
water stress and water scarcity limits. The gray boxes indicate the location and extent of the city along the
river transect. For the A2 scenario, see Figure S1 in the auxiliary material.

because of migration from the rural areas toward cities. If so,
it will lead to even more extreme water scarcity compared to
our results. Developing more detailed population dynamics
models for these cities and evaluating the impact on water
resources is therefore an obvious area for future research.
3.3.3. The Impact of Uncertainties
[48] Literature on climate change impacts on water
resources often stresses the large uncertainties involved in
making predictions, and the consequences for water resources
management [e.g., Dessai and Hulme, 2007; Buytaert et al.,
2011b; Beven, 2011].
[49] Indeed, the methods used in this study are prone
to large uncertainties, many of which are not explicitly
accounted for. A main source of uncertainty is the down-
scaling method, which does not account for potential changes
in extreme events. Although we deliberately aimed at ana-
lyzing the changes in long-term averages, extreme events
such as prolonged draughts may have a profound impact on

10 of 13
W08503 BUYTAERT AND DE BIÈVRE: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ANDEAN WATER RESOURCES
water availability. However, assessing the potential impact of
climate change on weather extremes in the tropical Andes is
problematic. Due to their coarse resolution, GCMs are unable
to represent elevation gradients properly, thus neglecting
locally important processes such as orographic precipitation
and localized convective events. Although regional climate
models have been implemented to improve the representation
of local climate processes, such models do not necessarily
provide better simulations of the local precipitation patterns.
For instance, Buytaert et al. [2011b] show that the regional
climate model PRECIS is likely to increase errors in the
simulation of precipitation over the tropical Andes compared
to the HadAM3p global climate model used as boundary
conditions. An alternative to regional climate models is the
use of statistical downscaling methods [e.g., Maraun et al.,
2010; Minvielle and Garreaud, 2011] but these models rely
on good observational data which is typically not available
for large parts of the Andes. However, on a global scale, the
tendency for an increased seasonality suggests that droughts
may be longer and more extreme [IPCC, 2007]. This, in its
turn, may have consequences for water storage and avail-
ability during dry periods.
[50] Similarly, uncertainties in the water balance model are
not accounted for. Although the uncertainties in climate
projections tend to dominate, a hydrological model may add
typically 10–20% uncertainty [Buytaert et al., 2011b; Arnell,
2011; Gosling et al., 2011].
[51] Nevertheless, the comparison between the potential
impact of climate change and population growth puts the
uncertainties in perspective. The observation that all popu-
lation growth scenarios fall outside the interquartile range of
the GCM ensemble, and that several fall outside the total
GCM projection envelope suggests that population growth is
clearly the major driver of future water scarcity (Figure 6).
This trend is much less uncertain and is therefore easier to
incorporate in planning strategies. Climate change impacts
may either reinforce or offset some of this trend, but it is very
unlikely that it will be reversed. As a result, when both
impacts are combined, the chances of any overall positive
evolution of water availability are very low.
[52] Managing water resources in a dynamic society with
various quickly changing external pressures is challenging,
and climate change will certainly increase this complexity.
However, although individual trends may be highly uncer-
tain, the combination of these trends may yield clearer signals
that may be more informative in a decision-making context.
In the studied cases, management strategies should be aimed
at mobilizing new water resources in the near future.
4. Conclusions and Pathways for Future Research
[53] The water resources of the tropical Andes are espe-
cially vulnerable to climate change. The region is expected
to experience some of the strongest changes in precipita-
tion patterns and warming, but climate models are unable to
represent the steep gradients and local climate processes.
This generates very large uncertainties in future climate
projections.
[54] Routing climate projections through a water balance
model shows that the inner tropical Andes is expected to see
only small change in water availability because of an offset of
an increase in precipitation by an increase in evapotranspi-
ration. In the outer tropics (e.g., the Bolivian highlands and
11 of 13
W08503
the Venezuelan coast) a decrease in precipitation reinforces
the increase in evapotranspiration, thus resulting in poten-
tially severe reductions in water availability.
[55] However, the complex topography complicates a
local assessment of the impact of future changes in water
availability. This is especially the case in mountain cities,
where geographical barriers and elevation gradients strongly
restrict economically feasible water supply areas while strong
population growth will increase demand.
[56] From the analysis in this paper, it is clear that the
stress on water resources in the major cities in the tropical
Andes will increase markedly in the future. The main driver
of the increased stress, however, is population growth, which
may increase water demand by up to 50% in 2050. The
impact of climate change is much more uncertain. But despite
the uncertainties in the climate projections, the combination
with population growth is very likely to result in decreasing
water availability per capita. This evolution may cause acute
problems for the cities themselves, but it may also generate
conflicts with downstream users especially where cities
flow toward dry lowlands. The presented approach helps
to visualize geographical patterns inprecipitation anomalies
and water availability, which may guide decision makers to
devise robust adaptation strategies.
[57] The methodology presented in this paper accounts
for limits and restrictions in water access. The approach
is demonstrated on geographical restrictions but can be
easily extended to account for other restrictions or to include
infrastructure development such as interbasin transfers.
Some of the limitations include the use of yearly precipitation
averages, in the assumption that water storage can bridge dry
seasons and droughts. Given the tendency for an intensifi-
cation of the water cycle and the more frequent of occurrence
of extremes including droughts, it is likely that water storage
will become more important in the future.
[58] Finally, we used global estimations of water stress and
water scarcity indicators. Local water demand may be highly
variable, and the impact of not meeting such demand is dif-
ficult to translate into socioeconomic vulnerability. There-
fore, locally more relevant indicators of water stress and
vulnerability should be developed based on socioeconomic
data, including internal migration and changes in population
density. Such research is currently ongoing.
[59] Acknowledgments. The research was funded by CONDESAN as
part of the project “Vulnerabilidad, Adaptación y Mitigación de los Efectos
del Cambio Climático en los Andes Tropicales.” W.B. acknowledges sup-
port from a UK EPSRC-RGS grant. We acknowledge the modeling groups,
the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI)
and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM) for their
roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel data set. Support
of this data set is provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of
Energy. We also thank Mariachiara Di Cesare of the School of Public Health,
Imperial College London, for her help with the population data.
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