Commodity Outlook

Precious Metals | Base Metals | Energy January 16, 2020

PRECIOUS METALS
MARKET ROUNDUP

PRECIOUS METALS MARKET WATCH Precious metals rose as the dollar fell
and a U.S. report added to signs of
modest inflationary pressures,
Precious Metals Contract Open High Low Close Change % Chng reinforcing expectations that interest
MCX Gold Rs. FEB20 39646 39708 39477 39611 -99 -0.2503 rates will stay low. Palladium
COMEX Gold $ FEB20 1546.8 1558.8 1546.5 1554 9.4 0.6086 surged above $2,200 an ounce to a
MCX Silver Rs. MAR20 46170 46450 45881 46389 -540 -1.1627 fresh record.

COMEX Silver $ MAR20 17.80 18.06 17.76 17.99 0.25 1.3865

IN FOCUS
LONDON FIXING

 SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's

A.M. FIXING P.M. FIXING
largest gold-backed exchange-
Gold 1551.90 1549.00 traded fund, said its holdings
Silver Fix AM stood at 874.52 tonnes, remain
unchanged from previous
US $ INDEX business day.

Close % Change  Holdings of the largest silver-

US $ INDEX 97.23 -0.1469 backed exchange-traded-fund
(ETF), New York's iShares Silver
ETF HOLDINGS AS ON PREVIOUS CLOSE Trust SLV, stood at 11,037.30
down 26.14 tonnes, from previous
ETF In tonnes Change business day.
SPDR Holding 874.52 00.00
iShares Holding 11037.30 -26.14
 Gold’s blistering rally isn’t over,
according to fund managers who
FOREX MARKET WATCH see another leg up for the precious
metal. Lower-for-longer interest
Currency Open High Low Close Change % Chng rates, a weaker dollar and the U.S.
USD/INR 68.73 68.95 68.73 68.81 -0.06 0.08 presidential election will provide
multiple catalysts for gains, even
USD/JPY 109.99 110.01 109.79 109.9 0.04 -0.04
as tentative trade peace breaks out
EUR/USD 1.11 1.12 1.11 1.12 0.000 0.02
between China and the U.S. Gold
has surged by about a third since
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK August 2018 and is up more than
2% this year, hovering near the
Precious metals are trading mix on COMEX today. We expect prices to trade
mix for the day, following the signing of the U.S.-China phase-one trade deal, highest in almost seven years.
with investors seeking to assess how consequential the accord will prove to
be for currency policy, relations between the two economies, and global
growth.

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 Commodity Outlook
Precious Metals | Base Metals | Energy January 16, 2020

BASE METALS
MARKET ROUNDUP

BASE METALS MARKET WATCH Industrial metal copper slipped

from the highest closing price in
% more than eight months amid signs
Base Metals Contract Open High Low Close Change Chng that U.S. - China tensions remain
MCX Copper Rs. DEC-19 452.95 455.9 450.5 455.25 3 0.6654 high despite an interim trade deal.
6298 6309.5 6246 6287 -15 -0.2380 The agreement signed Wednesday
LME Copper $ 3M
MCX Zinc Mini
has already been criticized for
182.3 182.4 180.8 181.75 -0.05 -0.0274 failing to address difficult issues,
Rs. DEC-19
2372 2399 2356 2385 11.5 0.4845 such as U.S. claims of China’s state-
LME Zinc $ 3M
backed hacking of American
MCX Nickel Rs. DEC-19 1018.4 1051.4 1009.5 1049.5 -11.5 -1.1167
companies.
LME Nickel $ 3M 13870 14385 13715 14320 450 3.2444
MCX Lead
151.95 153.15 151.8 152.65 1.35 0.8946
Mini Rs. DEC-19 IN FOCUS
LME Lead $ 3M 1948 2007 1946 1999 51 2.6181
MCX Alum  Alcoa forecast global aluminum
140.25 140.4 139.55 139.7 -0.2 -0.1423
Mini DEC-19
demand for 2020 of +1.4% to
LME
1808 1812 1798.5 1801 -8 -0.4422 +2.4%. Sees 2020 global
Aluminum 3M

SHANGHAI MARKET WATCH INDICES aluminum surplus 600,000 to 1

million metric tons. 2019 Final
Metals Close Change %Chng Index Close Change Aluminum Demand Rate
Aluminum 13460 40 0.3 Baltic Dry Index 763 -2 Estimate -0.4% to -0.2%. Saw 2019
Copper 47890 260 0.55 CRB Index 182.694 -0.9467
Aluminum Demand -0.6% to -
0.4%. In the first quarter of 2020,
Zinc 22040 190 0.87 DJ Commodity - -
Alcoa expects lower quarterly
LME WAREHOUSE STOCK results in the Bauxite segment
primarily due to lower pricing
Metals Prev. Net Total and seasonally lower volumes.
Copper 128100 -50 128050

Zinc 51800 -150 51650

Nickel 177600 984 178584

Lead 66475 -25 66450

Aluminum 1381175 -13300 1367875

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
Industrial metals are trading mix on International bourses today. We expect
prices to trade range bound to higher for the day, with nickel retreated and
copper steadied after China and the U.S. clinched an interim trade deal,
with traders assessing its impact on global growth and relations between the
two countries.

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 Commodity Outlook
Precious Metals | Base Metals | Energy January 16, 2020

ENERGY
MARKET ROUNDUP

Crude oil erased some of the losses

ENERGY MARKET WATCH
that followed the U.S. inventory
report after the U.S. and China
Energy Contract Open High Low Close Change % Chng
inked the first phase of a broader
MCX Crude JAN-20 4126 4131 4059 4100 6 0.1452 trade pact on Wednesday.
NYM Crude FEB-20 58.2 58.36 57.36 57.81 -0.42 -0.7213

MCX Natgas JAN-19 158.1 158.1 149.4 151.3 4.9 3.1839

NYM Natgas FEB-20 2.18 2.19 2.10 2.12 -0.07 -3.0636

IN FOCUS
INDICES EXCHANGE VOLUME
 American crude oil shipments to
China are poised to pick up again
Index Close Change Exchange Volume (in crores) after the two economic
Dirty Tanker Index 1340 -56 MCX 34526.03 superpowers signed a landmark
trade deal. Under the terms of the
Clear Tanker Index 752 -27 NCDEX 1371.61
agreement, U.S. energy exports to
ENERGY INDICATORS China will jump over the next
two years, with the promise of an
Date Time Energy Data Country Prior Consensus Actual additional $18.5 billion worth of
15-Jan 9.30 PM CRUDE STOCKS US 1.164 -0.75 -2.549 additional purchases in 2020 and
15-Jan 9.30 PM
GASOLINE
US 9.137 3.386 6.678
$33.9 billion in 2021.
STOCKS
DISTILLATES
15-Jan 9.30 PM
STOCKS
US 5.33 1.214 8.1713  India’s government is seeking
15-Jan 9.30 PM
Stocks at CUSHING
US -0.821 0.342 190b rupees in dividend from
OKLAHOMA
NATURAL GAS state oil companies, about 5%
16-Jan 9.00 PM US -44 -95
INVENTORY more than last year, Economic
Times reports, citing unidentified
people with knowledge of the
matter.

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK

Crude oil is trading higher on NYMEX today. We expect prices to trade

range bound to mix for the day, after the U.S. and China inked the first phase
of their trade deal, recouping losses driven by data showing American
petroleum supplies rising to a four-month high.

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 Commodity Outlook
Precious Metals | Base Metals | Energy January 16, 2020

RESEARCH TEAM
NAME DESIGNATION E-MAIL

Kunal Shah Head of Research kunal.shah@nirmalbang.com

Devidas Rajadhikary AVP. Commodity research devidas.rajadhikary@nirmalbang.com

Harshal Mehta AVP. Commodity research harshal.mehta@nirmalbang.com

Ravi D’souza Sr. Research Analyst ravi.dsouza@nirmalbang.com

Smit Bhayani Research Associate smit.bhayani@nirmalbang.com

Shrishty Agarwal Research Associate shrishty.agarwal@nirmalbang.com

Riya Singh Technical Analyst Riya.singh@nirmalbang.com

Disclaimer:

This Document has been prepared by N.B. Commodity Research (A Division of Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt.
Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on N.B. Commodities Research
assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of
the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents N.B. Commodities Research opinion and is
meant for general information only. N.B. Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in
any way be responsible for the contents stated herein. N.B. Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and
all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be
considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. N.B. Commodities Research, its affiliates
and their employees may from time to time hold positions in securities referred to herein. N.B. Commodities
Research or its affiliates may from time to time solicit from or perform investment banking or other services for
any company mentioned in this document.

Address: Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt. Ltd., B2, 301 / 302, 3rd Floor, Marathon Innova, Opp. Peninsula
Corporate Park, Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel (W), Mumbai - 400 013, India

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