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Geohazard mapping for predicting landslides: An example from the Langhe

Hills in Piemonte, NW Italy

Article  in  Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology · November 2002

DOI: 10.1144/1470-9236/00047

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Geohazard mapping for predicting landslides: an example
from the Langhe Hills in Piemonte, NW Italy
P.J. Mason1 & M.S. Rosenbaum2
1
HME Partnership, Romford RM3 0EY, UK
2
Geohazards Group, School of Property & Construction, The Nottingham Trent University, Newton Building,
Burton Street, Nottingham NG1 4BU, UK
eohazard mapping has been developed using
G multi-form, digital image data, permitting a
regional assessment of risk concerning slope
instability. Landsat Thematic Mapper and
multi-temporal SPOT-Panchromatic image data have
been processed to identify land use patterns and soil
mineralogy information, supported by field measure-
ments using spectroscopy and X-Ray Diffraction (XRD).
These have been used to identify slope instabilities
generated by the storm that struck Piemonte in
November 1994. This event caused many fatalities and
produced widespread mass movement, flooding and
consequential damage to property. Slope angle and
slope aspect data were derived from a Digital Elevation
Model (DEM), produced from stereo air-photographs.
The geohazard map was then compiled by merging
digital slope data with geotechnical characteristics,
utilizing map algebra within a Geographical Information
Systems (GIS).
Keywords: engineering geology maps, geological hazards,
landslides, regional planning, remote sensing
Landslides are documented throughout the Piemonte
region of NW Italy but they are particularly important
in the area known as the ‘Langhe’, a range of hills SE of
Turin (Fig. 1). This area has experienced slope insta-
bility over a prolonged period, but suffered particularly
in November 1994 following a storm event that pro-
duced widespread mass movements, leading to many
fatalities and floods, and with consequential damage to
property.
For planning purposes, the regional authorities
needed an assessment of the geohazard with respect to
future such events. An indication of the seriousness with
which this hazard is treated by the authorities is shown
by the introduction, in 1908, of Law 445 by the Italian
Ministry of Public Works. This law facilitates financing
the construction of defences, or even permits wholesale
movement of towns threatened by landslides, at the
State’s expense (Luino et al. 1993).
An important aspect of the geohazard study is to
identify the temporal and spatial distribution of zones
liable to movement, including the location of potential
slip surfaces. A comprehensive review of the differ-
ent methods for achieving this has been presented by
Hutchinson (1988).
Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, 35, 317–326
Remote sensing provides measurements of the ground
conditions through variable sensor and geometric
parameters. One seemingly fundamental difficulty is that
remote sensing yields information only about the surface
of the ground, yet movement of a landslide involves a
shear surface that exists at some depth. The current
study has considered both the geomorphological and
mineralogical expressions of mass movements with a
view to improving the geohazard assessment.
A particular advantage of satellite remote sensing is
that it enables rapid and routine collection of data over
a much greater area than can be obtained from a typical
ground based survey of comparable cost. In cases where
landslides could occur across a sizeable region, remote
sensing may be the only readily available source of
information concerning the terrain, particularly in the
aftermath of a devastating event or where erosion could
rapidly remove the evidence.
Information which remote sensing can provide in
landslide-prone areas includes surface morphology
(arcuate scarp, hummocky ground, tension cracks and
disrupted drainage), changes in vegetation as a result of
increased water content (indicating ground movement),
and soils which contain a lot of water (i.e. are poorly
drained).
Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, supported by field
measurements using reflectance spectroscopy and X-Ray
Diffraction (XRD), provides direct information concern-
ing the local soil mineralogy. Smectite (montmorillonite
group) clays are well known for their swelling properties
and for their significant role in slope instability (Di Maio
& Onorati 2000). Oxidized iron gives a very distinctive
remotely sensed signature as well as colour to soils, and is
an indicator of intense leaching and weathering of iron-
bearing rocks; this is particularly well developed along
fractures. Intensely weathered and fractured rocks are
zones of inherent weakness that may indicate locations
where mass movement is likely to be initiated. Clays and
iron oxides have therefore been targeted as two soil
mineralogy indicators within this investigation, and to
establish their association with landslide occurrence with
a view to utilizing them as geohazard indicators for mass
movement on a regional scale.
Geology and tectonic setting
The Langhe Hills (Fig. 1) lie on the flank of the
southern-most arc of the western Alps, on the margins
1470-9236/02 $15.00  2002 Geological Society of London
318 MASON & ROSENBAUM
Fig. 1. (a) Map of Western Europe; (b) Langhe Hills, Piemonte, NW Italy (dashed line indicates regional boundary). Boxes indicate
the study area.
of the plain of the River Po, and comprise a series of
gently dipping (7–12() Tertiary sediments of Oligocene
(Aquitanian) age (ca. 26 Ma). A monocline structure,
striking NE–SW, has produced gentle northwesterly
dipping strata which, with the northeasterly flowing
drainage, has produced a series of distinctive asymmetric
valleys with SE facing, gently dipping slopes and NW
facing steep scarp slopes.
Fine-grained argillaceous rocks, including claystone,
mudstone, siltstone and shale, dominate this region and
usually occur as alternating sequences with porous sand-
stones. Stratigraphy of this nature is particularly prone
to differential weathering and erosion.
The area has been isostatically active since glacial
times and the geomorphology of the upper Langhe river
basins suggests that the area has undergone signifi-
cant Quaternary uplift and rotation (Biancotti 1981;
Embleton 1984). This has caused a marked change in
drainage characteristics, including river capture away
from the Cuneo plain NE towards the Alessandria plain
(which is several hundred metres lower).
Historical research
On the basis of historical records for the area, Tropeano
(1989) describes landslides associated with major flood-
ing events dating back to 1485. Prior to the widely
reported 1994 storm event there seems to have been no
systematic study of the regional susceptibility to land-
sliding. Subsequent work by Boccardo (1994), Boccardo
et al. (1995) and Chiappone & Scavia (2000) have
redressed this situation; Mason et al. (1996), Campus &
Forlati (2000) and Mason et al. (2000) have paid par-
ticular attention to investigating the applicability of
digital data to the assessment of landslide hazards in this
region.
Major slope movements in the area have been docu-
mented by Sacco (1903), Boni (1941), Cortemiglia &
Terranova (1969), Govi (1974) and Tropeano (1989).
Govi & Sorzana (1982) drew attention to similarities
between the various landslides in the region, noting
that a close relationship existed between the time of a
landslide and the period of antecedent rainfall. They
observed translational slides which varied in their stage
of development, from the presence of a few large tension
cracks to the devastation of whole hillsides (e.g. Somano
1972, 1974); some occurred on slopes which had been
affected by similar landslides in the past. They also
inferred that human action, such as the construction of a
road cut, terrace, alteration of the natural drainage
system or dumping of waste into fissures, could be
significant factors for the initiation of slope instability.
The map shown in Figure 2 illustrates the distribution
of landslides produced during the last three major
periods of landsliding. This map suggests that much of
the area has exhibited slope instability since 1972.
Much of Italy has been at considerable risk from slope
instability for thousands of years, thus recurrent events
are not unusual. What is interesting is that the Langhe
region experiences very heavy rain each winter, yet the
literature suggests that it experiences major landslide
events rather less frequently (e.g. in 1941, 1948, 1972,
1974 and 1994).
 PREDICTING LANDSLIDES
Fig. 2. Distribution of slope movements (modified after Luino
et al. 1993).
The November 1994 landslide event
Between the 4th and 6th of November 1994, during
a severe cyclonic weather event, several hundred
millimetres of rain fell on Piemonte. Landsliding began,
prefaced by the ground cracking and bulging. The main
displacements did not start until between 11 pm and
midnight on the 5th, coming to rest in the early hours of
Sunday 6th.
The average rainfall during each day of the 1994
storm was 33 mm, contrasting with the average monthly
rainfall of around 140 mm for November in Piemonte
(Polloni et al. 1996). In fact between 200 mm and
300 mm of rain fell between 2nd and 6th November,
with 90% of this falling on the 5th November (Tropeano
1995. On 6th November, the region received the greatest
recorded rainfall in eighty years (up to 25 mm/hour).
Groundwater storage capacities of the river basins
were exceeded and the water table reached ground
surface; subsequently rainfall could only escape by flow-
ing overland, causing widespread flooding. In total,
seventy people were killed, several thousand people were
rendered homeless, two hundred settlements (towns and
villages) were affected and over one hundred bridges
were damaged or destroyed. The total damage was
319
estimated at approximately US $10 billion, within an
area comprising ca.30% of the region (Polloni et al. 1996).
Nature of mass movement in
Piemonte
The mass movements that affect the slopes in this region
fall into two main groups: (1) debris flows; (2) trans-
lational block slides (single and compound). These are
illustrated in Figure 3 and their characteristics
described in Table 1.
Geotechnical characterization
Recent studies have included geotechnical evaluation
and back analysis for both debris flows and block slides.
Bandis et al. (1996) conducted an analysis for a debris
flow in the Langhe based on cohesive soils and assuming
steady state seepage at the surface. They estimated
cohesion (c´) to be 5 kN/m2, friction angle (
´) to be
25(–30(, slope angle () to be 20(, and the maximum
thickness of soil at limiting equilibrium to be between
2.2 and 3.8 m, somewhat thicker than the observed
thickness of ca. 1.5 m, which suggests that the Langhe
soils are weaker than Bandis’ estimates.
Polloni et al. (1996) suggested that antecedent rainfall
controls the pre-storm soil moisture content, and that
this is critical to the initiation time of a debris flow.
These authors deduced that the most frequent slope
angles across which debris flows occur lie between 30(
and 40(. Ng & Shi (1998) found that both the position
of the initial groundwater level and the rainfall intensity
significantly affected the stability of the slope. They
suggested that a slope could remain stable, even under
extreme rainfall, provided the initial groundwater level
was low, but that the factor of safety would decrease as
the duration of rainfall increases.
In their analysis of block slides in the Langhe, Bandis
et al. (1996) noted that failure planes were pervasive,
generally between 100 and 200 m in length, and the
planes covered with a layer of clay material 5–20 mm
thick. They deduced a critical block thickness (zw),
assuming
´ = 22(,  = 24 kN/m3, w = 10 kN/m3 and
 = 10(, of 2.7 m (for 10 m length), 5.4 m (for 20 m)
and 13.4 m (for 50 m). Cohesion values for mudstone
and sandstone were reported by Bandis et al. (1996) as
being 0.3 MPa and 0.5 MPa respectively.
Two types of failure are observed in the region: debris
flows and block slides, the latter consisting of both
single surface and compound block slides (first-time and
reactivated). Bandis et al. (1996) could detect no geo-
technical basis for differentiating between block slides
and compound slides, nor did they make any mention of
the control exerted by geomorphology on the distri-
bution of slope movement styles. Their model suggests
320 MASON & ROSENBAUM

Fig. 3. Slope movement types observed in the Langhe.

Table 1. Characteristics of slope movements in the Langhe.

Debris flows Block slides

Shallow sheet flows (and some slides)
On slopes of 20(–53( (generally 20–40()
On slopes at high angles to bedding
Width/Length aspect ratios of 0.05–0.3
ca. <1.5 m thickness
Involve top soil/regolith and vegetation
Commonly related to slope concavities,
drainage gullies and hollows
Commonly occur in wooded areas
Occur after major rainfall events
Highly destructive, quite rapid (a few
metres/second)
Translational simple and compound block slides
Slopes of 5(–15(
On slopes at low bedding angles
Width/Length aspect ratios of 0.3–0.5
1–10 m in depth (simple); 20–30 m in depth (compound)
Involve rock, soil and vegetation
Simple slides – large area of slip surface exposed (ca. 30% of total area), otherwise
the surface is unbroken
Compound slides – considerable disruption to the ground surface
Open fractures and tension gashes develop above the crown prior to failure
Incipient phase characterized by swelling of the ground
Variable movement rates (10–100 m/hour)

that the maximum displacement occurs in the lower part
of the slope and that the central part translates en masse.
Swelling tests, together with X-Ray Diffraction and
Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) analyses on mud-
stone samples containing failure planes from the
Langhe, revealed a preferentially high percentage of
smectite on the surfaces of sliding planes (Forlati et al.
1996). Fractures in the upper parts of the slopes, and
swelling in the lower parts, were observed in the months
(fractures) and days (swelling) prior to failure. SEM
analyses revealed crystallographic fabrics along cleavage
planes and within the mudstone, implying recrystalliz-
ation under stress. The loss of strength was attributed
to the swelling of minerals that have expansive struc-
tures (i.e. highly active clays, such as smectite and
vermiculite).
An holistic approach utilizing a
Geographical Information System
(GIS)
Rosenbaum & Popescu (1996) presented a case study
describing how a regional landslide hazard assessment
could be based on such factors as slope angle, vegetation
and climate combined with regional geological infor-
mation. They utilized a GIS for spatial characterization
of the data and its subsequent integration, whilst recog-
nizing the problems associated with attempting to apply
such an heuristic approach where there is a dearth of
data.
With good digital topographic coverage available,
Van Westen et al. (1994) showed that GIS was well
suited for assessing the slope instability hazard. GIS is
 PREDICTING LANDSLIDES
now able to provide tools capable of handling uncer-
tainty parameters, notably those based on fuzzy sets and
weights of evidence (Eastman et al. 1995).
Database compilation for the Langhe commenced
with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), created photo-
grammetrically from stereo air photography, from
which slope angle (degrees from horizontal) and slope
aspect (degrees, as a bearing from North) were directly
derived. Geological boundaries, drainage and infrastruc-
ture were digitized from 1:25 000 and 1:50 000 scale
paper maps. Multi-temporal SPOT Panchromatic and
Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) image data were then
added. These were used to locate known landslides
produced by the 1994 storm event, training the GIS to
locate similar features elsewhere, as well as derive soil
and landuse information.
A ‘change detection’ image was created using SPOT
images acquired in June 1994 and April 1995. This was
thresholded to identify landslides produced by the
November 1994 storm event. The higher resolution of
this imagery compared with Landsat TM enabled a
better relation to be identified between landslide occur-
rence and the geology and geomorphology of the area,
and was subsequently used to compute a geohazard
assessment within the GIS.
By employing various wavelength bands of the
Landsat TM data, image ratios were derived to create
two indices that could be used to identify selected
ground characteristics (an established, and simple,
spectral analysis technique for identifying specific
mineral absorption features in image data, to which
reference to texts such as Lillesand & Kiefer (1994) will
provide further details):
(i) iron oxide content, from TM bands 3/1 (wave-
lengths 0.63 to 0.69/0.45 to 0.52 µm)
(ii) hydrated mineral (including clay) content, from
TM bands 5/7 (wavelengths 1.55 to 1.75/2.08 to
2.35 µm)
The distribution of iron oxide enriched areas of soil is
included in the assessment since this provides an indirect
indication of the presence of highly fractured zones. This
is because iron is preferentially leached from the sur-
rounding ground and thus provides an indicator of
potential instability caused by weathering. The Tasselled
Cap transform was then used to produce a soil wetness
index. This transform is able to derive indices such as
‘Brightness’, ‘Greenness’, and ‘Wetness’ from remotely
sensed images, a technique developed by Crist & Cicone
(1984a, b).
These image-derived indices provide information
about leaching and fracturing of the ground (iron
oxide), the water retentive properties of the soils
(hydrated mineral and clay content) and soil moisture
(wetness), which could then be used as evidence within
the GIS geohazard assessment of conditions potentially
leading to instability.
321
Database quality, errors and natural
variability
The spatial variability of natural phenomena is an
inherent characteristic, and occurs at all scales
(Burrough & McDonnell 1998). Localized variability
and measurement error might additionally be expected.
Precision and attribute value errors are inherent in any
database but need to be quantified if subsequent model-
ling is to be meaningful. Codes of practice for compiling
digital databases are tightening up procedures for the
reporting and documentation of data quality, a particu-
larly important aspect regarding the utility of a compiled
GIS database.
The Root Mean Square (RMS) provides a commonly
accepted expression of error measurement for an
attribute (e.g. slope angle or wetness). The RMS enables
calculation of the probability with which a value might
be greater or less than a specified value. Remotely sensed
image data are normally distributed over narrow value
ranges and are so numerous that the error in their
calculated RMS value is very small and can be taken as
being equal to the calculated standard error of esti-
mation; this lies between 0.005 and 0.15 for the Landsat
data in the cases under consideration. An additional
error is introduced by digitizing (e.g. the mapped geo-
logical boundaries and stream network images), whose
magnitude depends on the scale of study. Digitizing
errors of ca. 25 m on the ground would be expected at a
scale of 1:50 000 (assuming a drafting line width of
0.5 mm).
Slope stability analysis
Both block slides and debris flows in the Langhe form
essentially planar failures, and as such can be treated as
‘infinite slopes’ at a regional scale of assessment. The
lack of pore pressure and shear strength information,
and field observations recording that these slope failures
included both rock and soil, validate such a simplistic
approach, avoiding the need for adopting a more rigor-
ous application of limiting equilibrium methods. The
infinite slope method has been used and adapted by
many authors (e.g. Taylor 1948; Skempton & DeLory
1957; Brass et al. 1991). The version employed for this
study was expressed thus by Bandis et al. (1996) for the
Factor of Safety, F:
Shear Strength
F= (1)
Shear Stress
c´ + ~
m w! z cos2  tan
´
=
 zsin  cos 
c´ (effective cohesion) = 0.005 kN/m2 (c´res = 0 kN/m2);

(bulk unit weight) = 24 kN/m3;
322 MASON & ROSENBAUM

m (ratio of water table depth to failure surface depth) =

1.0;

w (unit weight of water) = 10 kN/m3;
z = depth to failure surface;
 = slope angle;

´ = effective friction angle.
Since slope angle is a parameter that can be deter-
mined anywhere within the study area, the infinite slope
equation could be applied directly to the GIS, on a
pixel-by-pixel basis. The other parameters had to be
estimated by interpolating the results presented by
Bandis et al. (1996). This provided a working solution,
but required broad assumptions concerning pore water
pressure and cohesion. Based on field evidence, clearly
defined ranges in slope aspect could be recognized for
the block slides (240(–020(N) and debris flows (020(–
240(N). Again on field evidence, maximum block thick-
ness (z) could be taken as 10 m for block slides and 3 m
for debris flows. For materials occurring on low angle
dip slopes, the friction angle could be assigned a residual
value of 10( (characteristic of marls) and for materials Fig. 4. Factor of Safety incorporating geotechnical parameters,
on scarp slopes the angle could be assigned as 25( slope angle and slope aspect. The white end of the greytone
(characteristic of sandstones). Cohesion was taken as legend represents where the Factor of Safety is greater than
0.004 kN/m2 for the marls and mudstones on dip slopes 1.0, i.e. the slope is likely to be stable; the shades of grey
(an average based on laboratory test results published by indicate potentially unstable regions on a relative rather than
Bandis et al. (1996) using samples of slip planes), and an abolute scale.
5 kN/m2 for sandstones on scarp slopes. Delmonaco et
al. (1995) estimated the time delay between the ground- i2 = pixel values in the slope angle image;
water recharge (3 November 1994) and the initiation of pi = 3.142;
slope movements two days later as being 48 hrs for null = pixels representing areas not at risk of failure and
debris flows and 56 hrs for block slides. Eyewitness therefore excluded from the processing algorithm (so
accounts state that, 24 hours after movement, water was yielding no value).
still pouring from recently exposed failure surfaces. A Using this calculation, a factor of safety incorporating
state of steady seepage at surface level was therefore geotechnical parameters specific to the defined ranges of
assumed and the ratio (m) was taken as being equal slope angle and slope aspect can be calculated for the
to 1.0. whole region (as shown in Fig. 4). The image-based
‘Map algebra’ was then used to calculate the level of information concerning distribution of iron oxides, clays
geohazard. Map algebra is a method of computation and soil wetness can thence be incorporated into the
whereby an algebraic or logical expression is applied to geohazard assessment as described in the following
each pixel of a raster image using information stored in section.
the corresponding pixel or its neighbourhood in other
images of the GIS. With such an approach, the infinite
slope equation can be computed on a pixel-by-pixel Geohazard assessment
basis to generate a Factor of Safety (F) map, using the
following ‘map algebra’ equation: The probability of occurrence of both spatial and tem-
poral events needs to be determined in order to evaluate
if i1>0 and i1<20 and i1>240 and i1<360 then
the mass movement hazard. Varnes (1984) defined a
(0.004 + (24 - 1 *10) * (10 *(cos(i1*(pi/180))*
hazard as being the probability of occurrence of a
cos(i1*(pi/180)))* tan(10*(pi/180)))) /
potentially damaging phenomenon within a given time
(24*10* sin(i2*(pi/180)) * cos(i2*(pi/180)))
and in a given area. The relationship between hazard,
else if i2>18 then
risk and vulnerability can be expressed in the following
(5 + (24 - 1 *10) * (3 * (cos(i2*(pi/180))*
way:
cos(i2*(pi/180)))* tan(25*(pi/180)))) /
(24 *10* sin(i2*(pi/180)) * cos(i2*(pi/180))) RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY (3)
else null (2)
Decisions concerning the hazard being considered can
where i1 = pixel values in the slope aspect image; be computed within the GIS by employing rules based
 PREDICTING LANDSLIDES 323

Table 2. Scale of Factor Weights to indicate relative significance of each factor and its influence on the system
relative to the other factors.

Rating Significance Rating Significance

9 Extremely strongly more important 1/3 Moderately strongly less important

7 Very strongly more important 1/5 Strongly less important
5 Strongly more important 1/7 Very strongly less important
3 Moderately strongly more important 1/9 Extremely strongly less important
1 Equally important

Table 3. Pairwise comparison matrix for the block slide hazard.

Slope Aspect FS DEM Dist. (road) Dist. (drainage) Wetness Iron- oxide Clay Factor Weight

Slope 1 0.278
Aspect 1 1 0.278
FS 1/3 1/3 1 0.151
DEM 1/6 1/6 1/5 1 0.037
Dist. (road) 1/4 1/4 1/3 2 1 0.086
Dist. (drainage) 1/7 1/7 1/4 1 1/5 1 0.034
Wetness 1/5 1/5 1/3 2 1/2 2 1 0.057
Iron oxide 1/5 1/5 1/3 1 1/2 1 1/2 1 0.041
Clay 1/7 1/7 1/5 1 1/2 1 1 1 1 0.039

on logic. Where data values have been measured
directly, ‘hard’ decision rules can be formulated. This
is difficult to achieve in reality and generally ‘soft’
decisions have instead to be established on the basis of
experience, prior knowledge and judgement, i.e. ‘belief’
in the possible outcomes.
‘Uncertainty’ can describe both the natural variability
of the data and the lack of evidence concerning its
significance. This can be accommodated using the con-
cept of probability, for example by calculating the
likelihood of a specific data value being exceeded. This
can be extended to consider whether a slope could
become unstable as a result of an adverse combination
of parameters.
Weights of evidence provide a technique for deter-
mining the relative weights of selected (significant)
standardized criteria that contribute to the hazard.
This approach considers spatial relationships concern-
ing mass movement phenomena in terms of ‘criteria’.
There are two types of criterion: Factors (variable) and
Constraints (Boolean). Such a distinction is fundamen-
tal to the effect that each criterion will have on the
resultant image. These may be linked to a relative
degree of confidence by using a fuzzy set, i.e. a con-
tinuous membership function where 0 represents
non-membership and a value of 1 represents full mem-
bership, intermediate values representing the possibility
of membership.
A fuzzy set membership function may comprise a
simple linear relation between parameter value and the
possibility of membership, or it may be more complex,
for instance sigmoidal or J-shaped. The fuzzy set func-
tions have been applied here to normalize each attribute
value (e.g. slope angle) to a standard value range, using
thresholds based on field evidence, prior to incorpor-
ation in the Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) analysis
described below. In this case, membership indicates the
degree of likelihood that the parameter value will lead to
slope instability.
Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE)
Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) involves the assess-
ment, weighting and aggregation of the attributes in a
collective rather than sequential way. Certain Factors
(or attributes) are suspected as having greater effect on
slope stability than others. The assessment of their
relative importance involves derivation of a series of
weighting coefficients. These Factor Weights control the
effect that each factor has on the outcome. The relative
significance of each factor and its influence on the
system, with respect to the other factors, needs to be
evaluated. The factors are ordered into a hierarchy of
significance with respect to their relative influence on
slope stability. This has been done using a comparison
matrix whereby each factor is rated according to its
significance to the slope stability system relative to every
other factor in the matrix. The rating values are assigned
using the scale in Table 2; the matrix produced for block
slide hazard is shown in Table 3.
The factor weighting coefficients are then calculated
by completing the upper-right of the matrix (using
reciprocal values of the lower-left triangular half of the
matrix); then summing each column to derive margin
totals; generating a second matrix by dividing each entry
324 MASON & ROSENBAUM
Fig. 5. (a) Hazard map for block slides where dots show the location of such slides in 1972, 1974 and 1994; and (b) Hazard map for
debris flows. The hazard rating is a measure of the likelihood that the slope will be unstable.
by its column margin total; and finally averaging the
weights across the rows to derive the Factor Weights.
All the Factor Weights generated from this matrix
sum to 1.0; these are then multiplied by their respective
factors (on a pixel-by-pixel basis) which have previously
been standardized to a common 0–1 scale (using the
fuzzy memberships functions), a method first described
by Saaty (1977) and then developed by Eastman et al.
(1995) for GIS manipulation. The outputs from this
multiplication are then summed to provide the final
aggregated sum. This aggregated output represents the
probability of landslide occurrence, i.e. hazard, on a
scale ranging between 0.0 and 1.0, with increasing
probability towards 1.0. Ideally, the production of the
comparison matrix (Table 3) and assignment of ratings
should be made not by one individual but by a group, in
order to reduce bias. In this way the comparison matrix
may be reviewed and updated in the light of group
discussion or acquisition of new data.
Hazard maps
The hazard maps for block slides and debris flows are
shown in Figure 5. Much of the area has a probability
value exceeding 0.05 (Fig. 5a) and the NW-facing slopes
generally show values greater than 0.10. Comparing this
with the distribution of block slides in 1972, 1974 and
1994 (shown as dots in Fig. 5a) reveals a coincidence
with the areas of highest hazard. The debris flow hazard
maps (Fig. 5b) shows areas of very high probability of
slope instability on SE facing slopes, noticeably where
these are adjacent to drainage channels. This pattern
correlates well with the distribution of debris flows
indicated on satellite imagery. Thresholding can be
applied to the hazard maps to reveal areas characterized
by a particular degree of hazard, e.g. at the 0.1 (10%)
level.
For a fuller explanation of the concepts introduced
here concerning remote sensing, image processing and
GIS, the reader is referred to the texts of Lillesand &
Kiefer (1994) and Burrough & McDonnell (1998).
Discussion
The study of slope stability and geohazard assessment is
attracting increasing attention as concern grows for the
safety of urban development encroaching on upland
areas. The mudslide disaster of May 1998 in Naples
devastated the community, caused millions of dollars of
structural damage, and generated a widely held feeling
locally that such a disaster could have been prevented
(or at least predicted).
Landslides in the Langhe Hills generally involve
translational sliding and so the application of the infinite
slope method has been considered acceptable for a
regional scale study. The block slide forms a special
case involving both rock and soil, with kinematic insta-
bility analysis being performed for movement along
discontinuities and bedding planes reflecting the local
geomorphology. The results show that planar failures
are more likely to occur on NW-facing dip slopes,
but that if the soil/rock interface is taken as a poten-
tial discontinuity, planar failures may also occur on
scarp slopes. This incorporates an examination of the
sensitivity of the calculated factor of safety with
respect to variations in slope angle and geotechnical
parameters.
Comparing the hazard maps generated by GIS with
the distribution of known landslide events has revealed
the general applicability of the methodology. The
 PREDICTING LANDSLIDES
database is, however, incomplete and is recognized as
being likely to contain errors. Furthermore, the planar
infinite slope model is known to be a simplification of
the actual failure mechanisms operating. Nevertheless,
the geohazard map computed in this manner seems to
reasonably reflect the observed occurrences of landslides
in the Langhe region.
Image information relating to landslides is complex
and contains two important components: texture and
spectral detail. Remote sensing has been widely and
successfully used to detect landslides in the past
(Stephens et al. 1988; Murphy & Vita-Finzi 1991;
Rengers et al. 1992; and Murphy & Bulmer 1994). It also
provides a very convenient source of time dependant
information.
Geomorphological studies indicate that the Langhe
region is dynamic in terms of post-Alpine, post-glacial
crustal uplift and that the mass movements are a na-
tural, slope-dynamic consequence of this uplift. This
implies that landsliding in the region is a long-standing
phenomenon and is likely to remain so. Such situations
are not uncommon, so the development and exploitation
of new technologies to help understand and mitigate
the effects of geohazards are, therefore, becoming
increasingly important.
Conclusions
The hypothesis has considered that incorporation of
digital information within geohazard assessment utiliz-
ing GIS can significantly improve risk management in
areas such as the Langhe. Consideration has been given
to:
• compiling thematic information from remote sensing,
geomorphology (elevation and its derivatives), and
land usage;
• stability analysis of selected slope profiles, and of the
whole study area;
• multi-criteria hazard assessment (using probability
and decision support tools) to compute geohazard
maps.
The distribution of actual slope instability events
arising in the last three decades has been compared with
the hazard maps. This has shown that image-based
studies utilizing satellite data have recognized the high
significance attached to consideration of information
which is geomorphological, features that are readily
detected using remote sensors. However, there are a
number of additional features which are needed to
facilitate the correct identification of mass move-
ments, for example arcuate scarps, tension cracks and
hummocky displaced ground. Detection of such features
in remotely sensed imagery is helped by having prior
knowledge of the likely mechanisms and their prevailing
state of activity.
325
GIS has been shown to provide a flexible and effective
tool for slope stability assessment. GIS facilitates the
production of thematic maps and permits adoption of a
multi-criteria approach. This provides a practical means
for aggregating significant attributes (factors) influenc-
ing slope instability and provides a flexible means of
combining individual factors whilst reflecting their rela-
tive influence on the system controlling the prevailing
stability.
Acknowledgements. The senior author would like to acknowl-
edge the European Social Fund for funding the research, John
Mc M. Moore for his advice throughout the project, the
University of London Intercollegiate Research Services (UL-
IRS) for use of computing facilities, the Ministero
Dell’Universita’e della Ricerca Scientifica e Tecnologica
(MURST) and British Council for pump-priming funding to
assist with field work, and the Dipartimento di Georisorse
e Territorio (Politecnico di Torino) for the provision of
data.
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