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HWRE 7021
Instructor: Mulu Sewinet (PhD)
Lecture III
Fundamental theory of water availability and demand
analysis
Hydrological Analysis for hydropower
Development
Hydrological studies will provide data on the
flow of water, one of the main parameters
used in hydropower planning.
Precipitation varies widely between
geographical locations, from season to
season and from year to year.
All planning in hydrology terms is predicted
on the assumption that the past history
of water occurrence will be repeated in
future.
Hydrological Analysis contd…
In other words, plans for control and use of
water are based on the assumption that the
precipitation and stream flow conditions
which have been observed in the past can
be expected to occur, within reasonable
limits of similarity, in the future, except if
stream flows are modified by acts of Man.
The generation of hydropower does not
imply consumption of water except as a
result of incidental evaporation, especially
from reservoirs.
Hydrological data
historical series of daily or monthly flows
Rainfall data
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Exceedence percentage
10
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% of time pow er is equal or exceeded
Average load
Load Factor
Peak load
NOTE: Maximum load determines plant capacity
Load factor - gives an idea of degree of utilization of
capacity. Thus an annual load factor of say 0.4
indicates that the machines are producing only 40% of
their yearly maximum production capacity.
Capacity factor: also called plant use factor or plant
factor
Average output of plant for a given period
Capacity Factor
Full plant capacity
6000000
C.F . 0.6 or 60 %
100000*100
NOTE: The capacity factor for hydroelectric plant is generally
b/n 0.25 & 0.75.
Therefore, if the peak load = plant capacity, then capacity factor
= load factor. If the plant is not used to its full capacity, then
load factor ≠ capacity factor.
Thus in the above example, if the maximum load was 75 MW
instead of 100 MW then
•Firm and Secondary Power
The term “firm” is given to supply which can be
guarantied at all times or a large percentage of the
time (e.g. 90% of the time).
0% 100%
Flow Regulation
Increased firm power
Firm Power
(Without storage)
0% 100%
Load Prediction and demand Assessment
Base Load - Peak Load
Power is needed for a variety of purposes, such as
domestic, commercial, industrial, municipal, agricultural,
public transport etc.
Load
(MW)
Nuclear
Thermal
Time (months)
100
Q (m3/s)
10
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Exceedence percentage
Determination of number of units
It is most cost effective to have a minimum number of
units at a given installation
However, multiple units may be necessary to make
the most efficient use of water where flow variation is
high
Factors such as space limitations by geologic
characteristics of existing structure may dictate larger
or smaller units.
Difficulty of transporting and installing larger units
Larger units require construction in segments and
field fabrication with special care
Field fabrication is costly and practical only for
multiple units where the cost of facilities can be
spread over many units.
•Selection of Most economical installation/unit
An economic analysis must be done in order to
justify the optimum installation
When the curve of total cost of installation crosses
the total benefit gained the optimum installation
can be decided depending on the local situation