Reg Environ Change

DOI 10.1007/s10113-013-0491-x

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

The long-term hydrology of East Africa’s water tower: statistical

change detection in the watersheds of the Abbay Basin
Solomon Gebreyohannis Gebrehiwot •
Annemieke I. Gärdenäs • Woldeamlak Bewket •

Jan Seibert • Ulrik Ilstedt • Kevin Bishop

Received: 24 December 2012 / Accepted: 25 May 2013

Ó Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Abstract Forty-five years (1960–2004) of hydrological
data from 12 watersheds in the Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, were
tested for possible trends over the entire time series and
differences in medians (step-wise changes) between three
sub-periods. The classification of the sub-periods was based
on the major political changes in 1975 and 1991. Variables
investigated were rainfall (P), total flow (Qt), high flow (Qh),
low flow (Ql), low flow index (LFI) and run-off coefficient
(C). Data were checked for outliers, errors and homogeneity.
Trend was tested after serial and cross-correlation tests. The
data for each variable were serially uncorrelated from 1 to
10 lag years. There were five globally significant trends out
of 50 test cases and 36 significant step-wise changes out of
180 tests. The majority of the significant changes were
watershed specific. Run-off coefficient was the single vari-
able showing a consistently increasing trend and stood for
ca. 25 % of the total significant trends and step-wise chan-
ges. Half of these changes occurred after 1991. We
concluded that despite the land use policy changes in 1975
and 1991, as well as the long-term soil degradation, the
hydrological regime was quite stable over the 45-year per-
iod, with the exception of an increase in the run-off coeffi-
cient in the latter part of the run-off record in some
watersheds.
Keywords Blue Nile  Ethiopia  Run-off coefficient 
Step-wise change  Trend  Watershed
Introduction
Historical patterns of hydrological and meteorological
variables are an important basis for water resource devel-
opment programs. The value of this historical basis
increases as the rate of contemporary land use and climate
change increases (Hamed 2008). The potential for irrigation

S. G. Gebrehiwot (&)  K. Bishop J. Seibert

Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment,
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, P.O. Box 7050,
SE-750 07 Uppsala, Sweden
e-mail: solomonakli@yahoo.com;
solomon.gebreyohannis@slu.se
S. G. Gebrehiwot  W. Bewket
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Addis
Ababa University, P.O. Box 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
S. G. Gebrehiwot
Ethiopian Institute of Water Resources, Addis Ababa University,
P. O. Box 150461, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Department of Geography, University of Zurich,
Irchel Winterthurerstr 190, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland
J. Seibert  K. Bishop
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University,
SE-75236 Uppsala, Sweden
U. Ilstedt
Department of Forest Ecology and Management,
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,
SE-901 83 Umeå, Sweden

A. I. Gärdenäs
Department of Soil and Environment, Swedish University
of Agricultural Sciences, P.O. Box 7014, SE-750 07 Uppsala,
Sweden

123

and water supply, design of water engineering structures
and watershed development programs can all be based on
past patterns of hydrological and meteorological variables.
Water resources are being exploited at an alarming rate
in many areas of the world including the Abbay Basin
(2 9 105 km2) of Ethiopia (www.mowr.gov.et, 05/02/
2013). The Abbay Basin delivers more than 60 % of the
River Nile water to Aswan, Egypt. The basin is also home to
ca. 20 million inhabitants whose main livelihood is sub-
sistence agriculture (Population Census Commission 2008).
The hydrological records of the Abbay Basin form a key
basis for dimensioning hydraulic structures such as dams, as
well as transboundary negotiations about the sharing of the
basin water resources (FAO 2000), and the assessment of
the sustainability of subsistence farming systems in the
region. This farming is mainly dependent on rain, with
some additional small-scale irrigation using streams. The
subsistence farming is the main form of livelihood for 80 %
of the population, and the population this farming must
support has been increasing at an annual rate of 2.6 %
during 1990–2000 (Population Census Commission 2008).
Political changes in relation to land management are
suggested to worsen the availability of water resources in
the Abbay Basin (Gebrehiwot et al. 2010; Rahmato 2009;
Ministry of Water Resources 1998). The political change in
1974/1975 with the overthrow of the monarchy was
accompanied by a ‘‘land to the tiller’’ policy, where many
previously uncultivated lands were allocated for cultiva-
tion. There was a nationwide resettlement campaign during
1984/1985 before another political regime change in 1991.
After that point, a new and more secure land tenure system
called ‘‘rural land registration’’ was implemented (Rah-
mato 2009). This encouraged farmers to clear forests in
some areas and plant trees in other areas, especially around
homesteads (Bewket 2011). The changes in land manage-
ment policies caused degradation of soil, forest and other
natural resources (Nega et al. 2003; Gebremedhin et al.
2006; Rahmato 2009; ECSNCC 2001).
In addition, there is a continuous soil degradation asso-
ciated with land use change in the region (Zeleke and Hurni
2001). These changes also assumed to exacerbate the water
scarcity. A common assumption is that when forest lands,
which could help the infiltration of water, were removed or
degraded, the capacity of the land to retain water decreased.
This leads to increased run-off during the rainy season and
reduced run-off during the dry season. However, this
assumption has often not been confirmed by data, especially
on large-scale watersheds ([100 km2), and continues to be
debated (Bruijnzeel 2004; Calder 2005). Gebrehiwot et al.
(2011) examined hydrological records of 32 watersheds
from 1960 to 1963 and concluded that there are spatial pat-
terns in the hydrological regime of the Abbay tributaries
related to land use and geology. The low flow regime benefits
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S. G. Gebrehiwot et al.
from the existence of grassland and woodland, predomi-
nately found in the south-western part of the Abbay Basin.
Thus, conversion of grassland or woodland to agriculture is
expected to have a negative impact on low flow. Most of the
north-eastern highland dry montane forest was deforested
more than 50–100 years ago and replaced by agriculture,
grazing or settlement (Ministry of Water Resources 1999).
The wet lowland woodlands and Savannah grassland in the
south-west have experienced more deforestation during the
last two to three decades (Gebrehiwot 2012; Bekele 2003).
Forty-five years of river flow data provide an opportu-
nity to analyse whether there are trends or other changes in
the flow regime, as well as potential correlations to land
use change and soil degradation. There are more than one
hundred gauging stations in the Abbay Basin (Ministry of
Water Resources 1999). Some of the stations have been in
operation since 1960. The river flow shows significant
seasonal fluctuations, with about 80 % of the flow con-
centrated in four months (June–September) (Ministry of
Water Resources 1999). Little, however, has yet been done
to explore the hydrological history of the Abbay Basin
tributaries despite the presence of these long-term data.
The aim of this study is to identify possible changes in
the hydrological regime between 1960 and 2004, using
19–45 years of flow records from 12 gauged rivers/water-
sheds in the Abbay Basin. The specific objective was to test
for possible trends over the entire time series and for
possible differences in medians (step-wise changes)
between three sub-periods, dividing the data at 1975 and
1991. Variables investigated were rainfall, total flow, high
flow, low flow, low flow index and run-off coefficient. Of
particular interest for water resource planning was whether
eventual trends and step-wise changes could be generalized
at the Abbay Basin scale.
The study area
The Abbay Basin is the Ethiopian part of the Blue Nile
Basin of the River Nile originating in the Ethiopian high-
lands (Fig. 1). In some documents, this is referred to as the
Blue Nile Basin, but this extends beyond the borders of
Ethiopia into Sudan. Run-off from the Abbay Basin com-
prises more than 60 % of the flow in the River Nile at
Aswan, even though the area of the Abbay Basin is 6.7 %
of the total Nile Basin area (Sutcliffe and Parks 1999). The
Abbay Basin in the western Ethiopian highlands, together
with the Tekeze and Baro-Akobo Basins, comprises the
three sub-basins of the River Nile flowing from the Ethi-
opian highlands. Together, these three basins contribute
more than 85 % of the River Nile’s annual flow at Aswan.
This has led to the Ethiopian highlands being referred to as
‘‘the water tower of East Africa’’ (UNEP 2010).
The long-term hydrology
Fig. 1 Location of the Abbay Basin in Ethiopia (right bottom corner), 18 meteorological stations (written out in the map) and 12 hydrological
stations (watersheds are numbered in the map and listed in the legend). Mean annual discharge as depth (mm) indicated from lowest to highest
The geographical location of the basin is between 34°330
and 39°450 E and 7°490 and 12°420 N. Its elevation extends
from 500 m above sea level at the outlet to the Sudan to ca.
4,400 m in the eastern Ethiopian mountain escarpments.
The climate ranges from the arid Sahel-zone along the
Sudan-Ethiopia border to temperate in the eastern Ethio-
pian mountains. The minimum and maximum daily aver-
age temperatures range from 11.4 °C in the eastern areas to
25.5 °C along the Sudan border. The average annual
rainfall ranges from 800 to 2,200 mm year-1, of which
80 % falls between June and September. The total flow
at the outlet to the Sudan is 51 9 109 m3 year-1 (or
260 mm year-1 spread across the basin area). Three
quarters of this flow occur during the summer rainy season
(Conway 2000).
Twelve watersheds from the Abbay Basin were selected
and evaluated in this study. The most important criterion in
selecting watersheds was the presence of a stable channel
cross-section in the control reach where run-off is gauged.
The stations were also selected based on their north–south
distribution over the Abbay Basin.
Materials and methods
Data
Discharge data were collected from the Ethiopian Ministry
of Water Resources and Energy, previously called the
Ministry of Water Resources. Discharge was generated
from the staff gauge readings of water level recorded twice
a day, at 0600 and 1,800. Rating curve equations were
developed and regularly updated from flows measured
using current metres three or four times per year at each
gauging station. River channel cross-sections and the levels
of the staff gauges were resurveyed after each rainy season
from local benchmarks. Finally, discharge data in volume
per unit time (m3 year-1) were transformed to specific
discharge (mm year-1), which is the equivalent depth of
water spread over the watershed area. From these monthly
data, the annual total flow (Qt [mm year-1]), annual run-
off coefficient (C, the ratio of Qt–P), wettest month, i.e.,
high flow (Qh [mm year-1]), driest month, i.e., low flow
(Ql [mm year-1]), and the low flow index (LFI, the ratio of
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 S. G. Gebrehiwot et al.

Table 1 Study of watersheds, data range, area of watersheds and medians of rainfall (stations for rainfall are indicated in Fig. 1) and flows for
each period; P1 (1960–1975), P2 (1976–1991) and P3 (1992–2004)
Watersheds Data range Area (km2) Rainfall (mm year-1) Total flow (mm year-1) High flow (mm year-1) Low flow (mm year-1)
P1 P2 P3 P1 P2 P3 P1 P2 P3 P1 P2 P3

Andasa 1960–05 573 1,529 1,304 1,307 461 427 508 78 75 89 5.4 4.6 6.1
Beresa 1962–03 211 1,002 778 932 508 372 513 262 189 294 1.3 1.4 1.6
Birr 1960–04 978 1,332 1,271 1,305 508 419 560 252 170 226 0.3 0.2 0.8
Upper-Didesa 1985–05 1,806 – 2,129 1,944 – 508 434 – 134 102 – 3.2 4.8
Gilgel Abbay 1960–04 1,664 1,554 1,568 1,526 1,068 1,097 1,131 332 341 329 4.4 4.1 3.1
Guder 1959–04 524 1,939 1,852 1,718 815 675 670 258 224 218 2.6 2.8 3.1
Gumera 1959–04 1,394 1,779 1,450 1,570 629 593 717 261 255 301 1.3 0.8 1.7
Koga 1960–04 260 1,546 1,510 1,588 576 497 673 183 118 171 7.0 6.1 8.5
Megetch 1964–04 462 1,028 1,017 1,139 322 276 420 135 183 192 0.5 0.6 0.8
Muger 1971–04 489 1,365 1,096 1,151 427 543 446 192 281 259 0.6 0.9 0.4
Ribb 1961–04 1,592 1,610 1,312 1,421 516 383 487 239 169 196 1.0 0.9 1.0
Urgesa 1979–03 19 – 1,999 2,011 – 313 510 – 55 84 – 8.8 12.8

Ql–Qt) were calculated. The index LFI was used to nor-
malize the seasonal flow to the total flow.
Rainfall data (P [mm year-1]) were collected from the
National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia for eighteen
different stations. Areally weighted, annual rainfall data
were generated for the watersheds of the twelve rivers.
Data from a single station were used if the watershed had
one station within or close to the watershed, as in the case
of Megetch. Otherwise, two to three stations per watershed
were used (Table 1, Fig 1).
Data exploration
The monthly discharge and rainfall were plotted for each year
to define the annual water balance and explore the data
quality as suggested by Dahmen and Hall (1990). These plots
revealed some erroneous data, such as outliers and short-term
shifts in the discharge–rainfall relationship. The original
source data were then examined to identify potential tran-
scription errors and confirm the absence of missing data. The
outliers remaining after this reexamination were discarded.
There was no consistent pattern where the outliers were found
in the time series. In total, 15 % of the data were missing. A
shift in the dates for the discharge–rainfall records was found
in only one watershed—Megetch. The three watersheds with
the highest frequency of missing data were Beresa (rainfall),
Guder and Muger (discharge). Two-thirds of these missing
data occurred during the 1980s. This could be because of the
political instability in the country during that decade.
The standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) was
applied to the monthly flow records (Alexandersson 1986).
The flow records proved to be homogeneous at a test level
of q = 0.05. These processed data sets were used in the
subsequent analysis.
Statistical analysis
All hydrological variables (Qt, Qh, C, Ql and LFI), including
rainfall (P), were analysed for trends along the whole time
series. Trends were analysed for data sets which have more
than 30 years of records. Of the 12 watersheds, three
(Megetch, Upper-Didesa and Urgesa) had discharge data
for \30 years. Furthermore, P and C were not analysed for
2 more watersheds (Beresa and Muger), because of fewer
available data. The data were also subdivided into three sub-
periods, 1960–1975 (P1), 1976–1991 (P2) and 1992–2004
(P3), in order to test for changes that could occur between
the different sub-periods. The sub-periods were of roughly
equal lengths and coincided with major land management
policy changes in 1975 and 1991 (Rahmato 2009; Ge-
brehiwot et al. 2010) (Table 1).
Trends were tested using the Mann–Kendall test, which
is a nonparametric approach, where data are ranked
according to the time series (years in this case). Then, data
are compared to the reference time sequence (Burn et al.
2004b). The data sets were tested for serial correlation and
cross-correlation. These forms of correlation can cause
false evidence of significant trends. The bootstrap resam-
pling cross-correlation test was used as a global signifi-
cance test (Yue et al. 2002; Burn et al. 2004a; Burn and
Hag Elnur 2002). The serial correlation test was employed
for each variable of each watershed from ?1 to ?10 years
of lag period. In bootstrap resampling, the entire time series
data were resampled 500 times. The global significance test
identifies the critical value for the percentage of stations
exhibiting a trend by chance. The percentage of significant
results (with 10 % significant level) was determined from
the percentage distribution of results. All tests were done
using JMP Ò 7 (SAS 2007), except the global significance

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The long-term hydrology
test analysis which was done using MS Excel with the
bootstrap add-in.
Comparison of all variables (P, Qt, Qh, C, Ql and LFI)
was made using the multivariate analysis technique partial
least square-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) between the
three sub-periods. PLS-DA can be used to find models that
are significantly different and represent classes of obser-
vation based on given variables (Eriksson et al. 2001).
PLS-DA results are projected with different components
constructed from the variables. The first two components
are the ones that explain the largest variances. The years
1960–2004 were considered as observations, with the
rainfall and hydrological variables from all twelve water-
sheds as the variables. Rainfall was included in the PLS-
DA to test whether rainfall was of comparable magnitude
at each of the three sub-periods in order to prevent that a
possible conclusion about the importance of changes in
land management policies is biased by coinciding changes
in rainfall. An intermediate result of the PLS-DA analysis
called the variable importance plot (VIP) value was used to
asses which variables contributed most to the significance
classification. VIP values \0.5 are of less importance,
while values [1 are of greater importance (Eriksson et al.
2001). SIMCA 12.0.1 (UMETRICS 2009) was used for the
Fig. 2 Rainfall and total flow time series plot for 12 watersheds in
the Abbay Basin. The black broken lines separate the three periods:
1960–1975 (P1), 1976–1991 (P2) and 1992–2004 (P3). The symbols
for rainfall and total flow are the same except that the total flows have
multivariate analysis. The change points (1975 and 1991)
were also tested to see whether they were significant using
the nonparametric method (Pettitt 1979) and the regime
shift using MS Excel regime shift add-in (http://www.
beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes; 23/04/2009).
Step-wise changes in the medians of the hydrological
variables between the sub-periods were analysed using the
nonparametric Wilcoxon signed-rank test (Zar 1999). This
was implemented using JMP Ò 7.
Results
Hydrological variables
The average annual Qt varied between 300 and
700 mm year-1 for most watersheds (Figs 1, 2; Table 1).
Gilgel Abbay showed much higher annual values,
1,000 mm year-1 on average, while its annual P was
intermediate (1,550 mm year-1 in average) (Fig. 2). The
highest single year Qt was ca. 1,200 mm year-1 in Gilgel
Abbay, and the lowest was \200 mm year-1 in Beresa,
Muger, Megetch and Urgesa. The highest single year P was
over [2,500 mm year-1 in Upper-Didesa and Urgesa in
connecting lines. The first column of rainfall and total flow plots
consists of 6 watersheds with mean annual total flow\500 mm, while
the second column consists of 6 watersheds with mean annual total
flow [500 mm
123

Fig. 3 High flow and run-off coefficient time series plot for twelve
watersheds in the Abbay Basin. The black broken lines separate the
three periods: 1960–1975 (P1), 1976–1991 (P2) and 1992–2004 (P3).
the south-west of the basin, while the lowest one was ca.
1000 mm year-1 in Beresa to the east. A slight decrease in
the amount of Qt was observed during the P2 (1976–1991),
which could be explained by the generally lower P in P2
(Fig. 2; Table 1).
The spatial pattern of Qt was reflected in the spatial
pattern C and to some degree in that of Qh. While most of
the watersheds had C between 20 and 50 %, Gilgel Abbay
had C between 60 and 80 % (Fig. 3). The highest C (0.8)
was found in Gilgel Abbay and the lowest one (0.1) was in
Urgesa. Moreover, Gilgel Abbay, Gumera and Muger had
higher Qh, while Andasa and Urgesa had lower Qh (Fig. 3).
High flow, Qh, showed a wide range, from 525 mm year-1
for Beresa to the 26 mm year-1 for Muger. Some water-
sheds such as Beresa, Birr, Gumera, Ribb and Urgesa
showed higher Ql and LFI in addition to higher variability,
while others like Birr, Megetch and Muger showed lower
Ql and LFI values and low variability (Fig. 4; Table 1).
Low flow comprised only 0.1–3 % of Qt.
Trends over 1960–2004
All the variables in all watersheds with at least 30 years
data were found to be serially uncorrelated with p B 0.05
for ?1 to ?10 years of lag time. Among the 50 test cases
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S. G. Gebrehiwot et al.
The first column of high flow and run-off coefficient plots consists of 6
watersheds with mean annual high flow \200 mm, while the second
column consists of 6 watersheds with mean annual high flow[200 mm
of the six hydrological variables, 10 locally significant
trends were spread across eight watersheds. Out of these,
five were globally significant trends, and these were found
in four watersheds (Andasa C?, Gilgel Abbay Ql-, LFI–,
Koga C?, and Guder Qt-).
Classification of periods and general differences
Both the nonparametric change point analysis and regime
shift tests did not find any significant change points in any
watersheds prior to 1996. After that time, change points
were identified in 3 watersheds (Birr, Gilgel Abbay and
Gumera). For Birr, there was an increase in LFI after 1996,
for Gilgel Abbay, there was a reduction in Ql and LFI after
1997, and for Gumera, there was an increase in LFI after
1997. But due to the short period of time between these
change points and the end of the record in 2004, a sound
statistical test cannot be made to compare hydrology
between the periods before (36 years) and after (8 years)
1996.
The PLS-DA analysis showed that hydrological vari-
ables were significantly different at p = 0.1 between these
three time periods (P1, P2 and P3) (Fig. 5). The variance
expressed by the first four components of the PLS-DA was
R2 = 0.76, while for the first two components, it was
The long-term hydrology

Fig. 4 Low flow and low flow index time series plot for 12 The first column of low flow and low flow index plots consists of 6
watersheds in the Abbay Basin. The black broken lines separate the watersheds with mean annual low flow \3 mm, while the second
three periods: 1960–1975 (P1), 1976–1991 (P2) and 1992–2004 (P3). column consists of 6 watersheds with mean annual low flow [3 mm

Fig. 5 Partial least square (PLS-DA) graph for the classification of wettest month (high) flow, Qh [mm year-1]; driest month (low) flow,
three periods [1960–1975 (P1), 1976–1991 (P2) and 1992–2004 (P3)] Ql [mm year-1]; and low flow index, LFI [the ratio of Ql–Qt]). The
based on hydrological variables (annual flow, Qt [mm year-1]; annual ellipses with broken lines show the three periods
rainfall, P [mm year-1]; run-off coefficient, C [the ratio of Qt–P];

123
 S. G. Gebrehiwot et al.

R2 = 0.52. The three time periods were used for sub-
sequent step-wise change analyses. According to the VIP
values of the hydrological variables, 75 % of the variability
for the classification came from C, P and Qt variations in
the 12 different watersheds; the VIP value of C was 1.44,
of P 1.24 and of Qt 1.06.
Step-wise changes between different periods
was one increase in Qh and that was in another watershed
(Urgesa). High flow significantly decreased from P1 to P2
as well as from P1 to P3 in Birr, Guder and Ribb and from
P2 to P3 in Upper-Didesa. Megetch was the watershed for
which no step-wise changes were found and for which too
few years were available for trend analyses. Rainfall was
significantly changing from P1 to P2 in Koga (Table 2).

There were 36 significant step-wise changes out of 180 Discussion

tested cases (12 watersheds 9 6 variables 9 3 periods
minus the two periods for the three watersheds with shorter
duration records, Table 2). The most frequent step-wise
change was an increase in C (8 significant changes), fol-
lowed by an increase in Qt (6 significant changes) and a
decrease in Qh (6 significant cases). Between period P2 and
P3, seventeen step-wise changes were significant out of the
66 possible. There were 11 significant step-wise changes
from P1 to P2 and 8 from P1 to P3.
The run-off coefficient C was the one variable that
changed in the same direction in all significant trends and
step-wise changes. It increased significantly over the whole
period and between sub-periods in Andasa, Gumera, Be-
resa, Koga and Ribb. Step-wise changes for Qt showed six
increases and four decreases in seven watersheds. Thus,
some changes were counterbalanced in the next sub-period.
The six decreases in Qh were not counterbalanced. There
The hydrological regime
The hydrological regime of the watersheds of the Abbay
Basin proved to be rather stable during the last half of a
century, except for a few changes, predominately during
recent years. At the same time, changes and values of
hydrological variables were quite different between the
watersheds. High hydrological variability among water-
sheds is reported for other parts of Ethiopia and Africa
(Baldassarre et al. 2011; Palamuleni et al. 2011). Gilgel
Abbay with its high Qt differed from the adjacent water-
sheds Andasa, Birr and Koga. Similarly, Birr with its
exceptionally low Ql differed from nearby watersheds. In
general, geographical closeness, in contrast to other envi-
ronmental factors, has little impact on the similarity of
hydrological regime; this is indicated in Gebrehiwot et al.

Table 2 Trends in the whole

Watersheds Trendsa Step-wise change from
time series and step-wise
changes of hydrological P1 to P2 P1 to P3 P2 to P3
variables between the three
periods; 1960–1975 (P1), Megetch ‘‘ND’’ NS ‘‘ND’’ ‘‘ND’’
1976–1991 (P2) and 1992–2004 Ribb NS Qt-, Qh- NS C?, Qt?
(P3) Gumera (C?) LFI– C? Qt?, LFI?
Andasa (P-), C? NS C? C?, Qt?
Koga NS, C? P- C? C?
Gilgel Abbay Ql-, LFI– NS NS Ql-, LFI-
Birr (Qh-) Qt-, Qh-, Ql- Qh-, Ql?, LFI? C?, Qt?, Ql?, LFI?
Beresa NS (‘‘ND’’ for P, C) C?, Qt? NS NS
Muger (Ql-) (‘‘ND’’ for P, C) NS NS Ql-
Guder Qt-, (Qh-) Qt-, Qh- Qt-, Qh- NS
The total number of significant Upper-Didesa ‘‘ND’’ ‘‘ND’’ ‘‘ND’’ Qh-
changes for each variable is Urgesa ‘‘ND’’ ‘‘ND’’ ‘‘ND’’ Qt?, Qh?
summarized in the lower section Summaryb
of the table. NS indicates
P (rainfall) (1–) 1- NS NS
nonsignificant, while ‘‘ND’’ not
determined. ?signifies increase, Qt (total flow) 1– 1?, 3- 1- 5?
while -signifies decrease Qh (high flow) (2–) 3- 2- 1?, 1-
a
The numerals in the summary C (run-off 2?, (1?) 1? 3? 4?
indicate number of watersheds coefficient)
b
Trends in parentheses are only Ql (low flow) 1-, (1-) 1- 1? 1?, 2-
significant at the local LFI (low flow index) 1- 1- 1? 2?, 1-
significance test

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The long-term hydrology
(2011) and Senay et al. (2009), as well. Indeed, other
environmental factors like topography (Bayabil et al.
2010), soil, land use, geology and climate variability
(Bewket and Conway 2007) can have major impacts on
hydrological responses across the basin.
The time series plots showed a tendency of higher
P during P1 and P3 than during P2 in most watersheds. The
tendency of reduced P in P2 was corroborated by the study
of Bewket and Conway (2007) who found that P was
reduced in the 1980s and increased again in the 1990s in
the Amhara region, which overlaps with the northern and
eastern parts of the Abbay Basin. The reduction of Qt in the
1980s is also supported by Fasil (1991) who showed that
the 1980s were a period of extensive drought. The differ-
ences in Qh between the sub-periods followed similar
patterns as Qt, which is understandable as Qh stands for
74 % of the total flow (Ministry of Water Resources 1999).
The differences in Ql were less pronounced between the
sub-periods.
Hydrological changes and possible implications
Ten per cent of the tested trends and 20 % of the tested
step-wise changes were significant. The hydrological
changes, both the significant trends and the step-wise
changes, were generally watershed specific. For instance,
Ql decreased in Gilgel Abbay, while it increased in Birr; Qh
decreased in Upper-Didesa, while it increased in Urgesa.
These are examples of contrasting behaviour among adja-
cent watersheds. There are some similarities as well—
increment of Qt in the adjacent watersheds Ribb and Gu-
mera and the same increment for Andasa and Birr. Low
flow and LFI showed the most watershed-specific changes
among the hydrological variables with both increasing and
decreasing changes.
The one change in a hydrological variable that went in
the same direction was for C, which was increasing. This
means that a larger proportion of the rain water flushed
through the watersheds instead of being lost to evapo-
transpiration. This increase in C appears to be the only
factor that might be giving a somewhat consistent indica-
tion of hydrological change.
Soil degradation, cattle grazing and rainfall properties
are all factors that could influence C. Soil degradation has
been an ongoing phenomenon for decades in the region
(Zeleke and Hurni 2001; Hurni 1988). Soil structure has
been degraded and rock outcrops have been exposed on
mountain sides in the region. This could narrow the dif-
ference between Qt and P, increasing C. In Gebrehiwot
et al. 2011, it was indicated that the area of grazed land
was positively correlated with C. The basin’s cattle popu-
lation has been increasing, from ca. 27 9 106 in 1994
(Ministry of Water Resources 1998) to 31 9 106 in 2007
(extrapolation based on Gebremedhin et al. 2007). This
could have increased the grazing pressure.
In the Abbay Basin, rainfall properties like duration,
intensity and inter-event duration are also important influ-
ences on the flow (Haile et al. 2011; Liu et al. 2008).
Because of differences in such rainfall properties, Qt could
increase without changes in total annual P. It might also be
expected that an increasing C would be accompanied by
increased Qh and a decreased Ql and LFI, but the data did
not support that expectation. One explanation is that the
increase in C mainly took place in the month following the
month of Qh. This in turn could be explained by increasing
the variability of the rainfall pattern. Mellander et al. (in
review) found that the end of rainy season becomes less
distinct during P3 in a study covering the same time series
as this study. Also, Mohamed et al. (2005) and Baldassarre
et al. (2011) found that the inter-annual and inter-decadal
variability is quite large in the basin. The high variability
could have large consequences in an area where so many
people are dependent on rain-fed agriculture (World Bank
2006; Bewket 2007).
Of the 36 significant step changes (out of 180 possible),
17 occurred at the end of the study period, between P2 and
P3. This could mean that the change has become more
frequent in recent years. If this tendency continues, more
hydrological changes could be expected in the near future.
Bates et al. (2008) predict that the hydrological cycles will
be amplified in this region. It might also be that the
response of Qt, Qh and C to land management policies was
suppressed during P2 due to the lower P; i.e., the infiltra-
tion capacity was less frequently exceeded. But since 7 of
the 17 significant step changes out of the 66 possible from
P2 to P3 would be expected due to chance given the 10 %
significance level, the indication of an increasing rate of
hydrological change in the region is weak.
The cumulative hydrological variables were signifi-
cantly different between the three periods of the 45 years
as indicated by the multivariate analysis (Fig. 5). The
analysis of specific variables in either the trend or step-wise
changes, however, did not indicate that there are consistent
observable changes in the way watersheds process water at
the basin scale, except for a tendency that C increases. An
explanation for these contradicting results might be the
multivariate analyses take into account the additive com-
ponent of the individual changes. Failing to detect 1975
and 1991 as change points with the regime shift analysis
also showed that the abrupt changes in land management
during these years did not yield concomitant changes in the
hydrological regime.
The high inter-annual variability in flow parameters
could consist both of real features of the data and error
components. Although flow measurement equipment and
control reaches were regularly calibrated, errors cannot be
123

totally excluded and flow extremes (both Qh and Ql) are
inherently more difficult to gauge accurately. Low flows
could bear higher proportional error compared to flows
nearer to the median value or high flows (Westerberg et al.
2010). However, the length of the data records, 45 years of
flow measurements and its homogeneity confirmed the
robustness of the data set.
The differences between the hydrological regimes of
watersheds speak for water resource planning tailored at
the watershed scale despite the fact that relationships
between land management policy and hydrology remain
difficult to quantify at the scale of a large watershed
([100 km2). Effects of land management may be occurring
at a higher temporal and spatial resolution, such as a
weekly basis at the field scale. Indeed, there is experi-
mental evidence for this small-scale response at several
experimental sites from across Ethiopia. At the plot scale
(30 m2) level, Hurni et al. (2005) found 5–40 times more
run-off from degraded and cultivated lands than from forest
lands. Bruijnzeel (2004) also reports similar results for
other areas. The failure to see this at the basin scale may be
related to the generally recognized fact that responses are
smoothed out at larger scales (Blöschl et al. 2007). Soil
degradation and land use influences on the hydrological
regime could be site specific and scale dependent in the
Abbay Basin, as it has been in the other areas of the globe
(Johnson 1998). Detailed information on land use change
for each watershed is also needed for further analysis of the
impact of soil degradation, although this kind of informa-
tion can be hard to acquire for the periods before the launch
of satellites.
Conclusion
The hydrological regime of the Abbay Basin during
1960–2004 proved rather stable, with relatively few sig-
nificant trends (10 %) and step-wise changes (20 %)
identified. There was generally little consistency in the
direction of the changes, except that run-off coefficient
increased in five of the 12 watersheds. A typical example
for inconsistency is the low flow, which was decreasing in
some watersheds and increasing in others. Thus, there is
little evidence pointing to generalized hydrological chan-
ges across the Abbay Basin or support for the hypothesis
that either land management policy changes or long-term
pressures on the soil caused consistent changes in the
hydrological regime at the scale of hundreds to thousands
of square kilometres. Yet, there is reason for increased
awareness for water resources planning as most of the
changes detected took place in the latter part of the study
period. Relationships between land management changes
and hydrological response might also be revealed at higher
123
S. G. Gebrehiwot et al.
spatial and temporal resolution, which requires more
detailed information.
Acknowledgments This research was supported by funds from
SIDA (Swedish International Development Agency) and The Swedish
Foreign Affairs Office project ‘‘Soil and water management in agri-
cultural production’’.
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