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The main risks to our forecast are from the external environment. A
significant slowdown in global growth and geopolitical tensions
constitute key risks. A sustained period of lower oil prices would lead
The main risks to our forecast stem to a higher-than-forecasted fiscal deficit. Regional political
from regional political uncertainty uncertainty will continue to cast a further shadow over the economy
and any delays to implementing and any heightening of tensions will hit businesses and consumer
reform plans. confidence. Any delays of serious reform, particularly those that are
the most growth-enhancing areas of the National Transformation
Program (NTP 2020) constitute a downside risk to a thriving private
sector. Other risks include further delays in government payments to
the private sector, which may consequently impact sentiment, capital
inflows, and business and household confidence, though this is not
likely.
6 115 8
4 6
110
(percent)
(percent)
2 4
105 2
0
Global economy 100 0
-2 Emerging markets
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
-4 Advanced economies
2017F
2018F
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2
February 2017
US economy:
3
February 2017
Eurozone economy:
Although the IMF forecasts slightly lower year-on-year growth for the
Euro zone in 2017, there have been some bright spots for the bloc in
2016. Unemployment rates have dropped to the lowest levels in six
years, whilst yearly growth in industrial production and loans to non-
There have been some bright financials reached the highest in four years (Figure 4). The main
spots for the bloc in 2016. impetus for this better-than-expected performance has been lower
year-on-year oil prices, as well as higher exports, as a result of
weaker euro. In fact, record levels of money supply continued to be
pumped into the financial system in 2016, whilst deposit rates
remained negative, all of which added to the euro’s decline during
last year.
So far, there seems to be no Despite these encouraging signs, there are a number of challenges
economic effect, on either side, as ahead for the economic bloc. So far, there seems to be no economic
a result of UK’s decision to leave effect, on either side, as a result of UK’s decision to leave the
the EU. European Union (EU), back in June 2016. However, following the UK
Prime Minister’s recent announcement that Britain's formal exit from
Figure 4: Euro zone’s economic indicators Figure 5: Key challenge for Japanese government
improved in 2016 is to increase private consumption
2 104
11
0 102
-2 10.5
-4 10 100
-6 98
-8 9.5
-10 9 96
Nov- Nov- Nov- Nov- Nov- Nov- Nov- Nov- 94
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16
Note: rebased to 100 in December 2010
4
February 2017
Japanese economy:
One of the first acts of the new US administration was to end its
county’s participation in the TPP, effectively eliminating the
agreement all together. Japan was expected to benefit from the TPP
free trade deal, with the government forecasting up to 2 percent
increase in real GDP over a 10-20 year period. As a result, the
Japanese government will now have to seek a new multinational free
trade deal by itself. One alternative could be the China-backed
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), but talks
over this are still ongoing and may not be fully agreed upon for a few
years.
Emerging markets:
EM debt has grown rapidly in the last few years, with total external
debt of 41 EM countries rising from $4.5 trillion in 2008 to $7 trillion
EM debt has grown rapidly in the at the end of 2016. During this period, EMs have also witnessed
last few years… healthy growth rates, but whilst global economic growth rates have
moderated recently, total external debt has not. In the context of
further hikes in US interest rates during 2017, the concern is that
many EMs may also be forced to raise interest rates in order to
...with total external debt of 41 EM prevent large capital outflows. In November 2016, just prior to the US
countries rising from $4.5 trillion in Fed’s fund rate hike, net capital outflows from EMs reached their
2008 to $7 trillion at the end of third largest monthly total since the global financial crisis, with
2016. around $448 billion leaving ten EM countries in the year-to-
November 2016 (Figure 6). If EMs do raise interest rates, this will
inevitably push up borrowing costs across all sectors, which could be
of particular concern to the non-financial corporate sector, where
debt levels have risen rapidly in the last few years (Figure 7).
(percentage of GDP)
-20 37
-40 90
-60 32
-80
-100 80
27
Jul-15
Jul-11
Mar-10
Mar-14
Nov-12
Nov-16
22 70
Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16
Note: Refers to Brazil, Chile, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico,
Poland, Russia, S.Africa and Turkey Note: GDP weighted averages of twenty EM countries
6
February 2017
Figure 8: Chinese residential property sales and Figure 9: Preliminary data shows middle eastern
household debt-to-GDP OPEC producers complying with cuts
10 43 8
Households debt-to- Dec-16
41 7
(million barrels per day)
9 GDP (RHS)
39 6 Preliminary-Jan 17
Annual residential 5
8 property sales 37
(trillion yaun)
4
35
(percent)
7 3
33
2
6 31
1
29
5 0
27
Qatar
UAE
Iraq
Kuwait
Iran
S.Arabia
4 25
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
7
February 2017
Figure 10: Average monthly movement in Brent oil Figure 11: Recent upward revision in US oil output
price between 1995-2016 forecast equal to 50 percent of OPEC cuts
120 9.7
(million barrels per day)
118 9.4
116
9.1
114
112 8.8
110 8.5
108 8.2
106
7.9 EIA Dec-16
104
102 7.6
EIA Jan-16
100 7.3
Nov
Dec
Oct
Mar
Apr
Jan
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Feb
7.0
Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18F
Note: January = 100
8
February 2017
remains a big risk, with the risk growing the longer the cuts go on. A
crucial test in OPEC compliance is likely to come around March/April
The danger is that as prices rise, time, when global oil prices tend to rise following a period of refinery
the economic incentive to cheat maintenance (Figure 10). The danger is that as prices rise, the
will become more appealing. economic incentive to cheat, especially for financially troubled
producers such as Iraq and Venezuela, will become more appealing.
Any production above agreed OPEC ceilings is likely to bring about
reciprocal action from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers,
resulting in higher output all round.
Figure 12: Contribution to real GDP growth Figure 13: Contribution to non-oil GDP growth
9
February 2017
800 20
(percent)
(percent)
4 15
600
10
-1 400 5
0
-6 200
-5
-11 0 -10
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
10
February 2017
Oil GDP is forecast to decline The oil sector, the largest sector of the economy, accounting for
marginally… 44.3 percent in real terms at the end of 2016 (Table 2), is forecast to
decline marginally, as lower oil production (see oil market in 2017
section), will lead to negative growth (Figure 14). Saudi Arabia’s full
year average crude oil production (based on direct communication
...as lower oil production will lead data) was 10.5 mbpd in 2016. This was directly a result of higher
to negative growth in the sector. year-on-year crude oil and refined product exports. Going forward,
there are obvious implications for Saudi crude oil production
following the OPEC deal, with recent comments from the Saudi
energy minister suggesting that current production levels are even
Figure 16: Petrochemical and plastic exports Figure 17: Saudi petrochemical capacity
4.0 80
(percent)
3.5 15
3.0 60
2.5 10
2.0 40
1.5
1.0 20 5
0.5
0.0 0 0
Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-12 Nov-14 Nov-16 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F
Source: GPCA and Jadwa Investment
11
February 2017
12
February 2017
Figure 18: Number of pilgrims performing Hajj Figure 19: Total flights and passenger traffic
(thousand flights)
2.5 75
600
2.0 70
550
1.5 65
500
1.0 60
0.5 450 55
0.0 400 50
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: GACA and Jadwa Investment
13
February 2017
Figure 20: Real estate price index Figure 21: Cement and steel production
(year-on-year change) (year-on-year change)
4 Residential 50 Steel production Cement production
2 Commercial 40
0
-2 30
(percent)
(percent)
-4 20
-6
10
-8
-10 0
-12
-10
-14
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -20
2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
14
February 2017
Figure 22: Bank claims on private sector Figure 23: Peak loads and excess capacity
1.4 14 8
(gigawatt/ hour)
(SR trillion)
(percent)
12 7 75
1.3 6
10
1.3 5 65
8 4
1.2 6 3 55
4 2 45
1.2 1
2
1.1 0 0 35
Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 2008 2011 2014 2017F 2020F
Source: ECCRA and Jadwa Investment
15
February 2017
Economic reform plans announced under the Saudi Vision 2030 this
year aim to increase the mining sector’s GDP contribution to SR240
billion from the current SR64 billion. Additionally, the sector is
targeted under FBP 2020 to undergo structural reform in order to
stimulate private sector investment. FBP has also highlighted
infrastructure investment, improvements in licensing procedures, and
development of funding methods as ways to support growth in the
mining sector. The sector has already seen a notable increase in net
employment of 37 thousand jobs during 2016, with similar growth
expected in 2017.
Fiscal Policy
The 2017 budget outlines a return to an expansionary stance with
budgeted spending up by SR50 billion, year-on-year to SR890
Figure 24: Fiscal deficit to shrink Figure 25: Fiscal balance and Saudi oil prices
950 20
($ per barrel)
95
(SR billion)
750 15
550 10 85
350 5 75
0 65
150
-5
-50 55
-10
-250 -15 45
-450 -20 35
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F
17
February 2017
That being said, the Kingdom has budgeted for a third consecutive
fiscal deficit, amounting to SR198 billion in 2017, compared with
SR145 billion in 2015 and SR326 billion in 2016. With optimism
Figure 26: Gross public debt Figure 27: Financing the fiscal deficit
70
400 60 250
(SR billion)
50
300 40
30 50
200
20
100 10 -150
0 0
2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017F -350
Domestic debt
International debt -550
Total public debt, % of GDP (RHS) 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F
Note: * negative sign denotes accumulation of debt
18
February 2017
regarding the outlook for global oil market, and a strong drive to
increase non-oil revenue, the budget foresees a rebound in
revenues by 34.7 percent. As for spending, a positive growth of 6
percent is budgeted compared to last year.
We believe the government is We calculate the Saudi export price at $52 per barrel (pb) (around
budgeting for a compliance with $55pb for Brent) and crude oil production of 10.1 million barrels per
OPEC cuts... day (mbpd) in 2017 are consistent with the revenue projections
contained in the budget (Figure 25). We believe the government is
budgeting for a compliance with OPEC cuts, agreed back in October,
thereby reducing year-on-year production by 323 thousand barrels
...our baseline forecast, however, per day (tbpd). Our baseline forecast, however, is still at 10.4mbpd
is still at 10.4mbpd due to a due to a number of risks associated with non-compliance from other
number of risks. OPEC members, but not Saudi Arabia, and therefore resulting in the
OPEC deal not materializing. We, therefore, expect 2017
government revenues to be higher than the budgeted level. We also
believe that more efficient spending measures will mean that
spending will match the budgeted figure of SR890 billion. We
therefore forecast a lower deficit of SR162 billion (6.1 percent of
GDP) based on an oil price of $54.5 pb for Brent in 2017.
That said, we believe that financing the 2017 deficit will include the
simultaneous drawing down of the stock of government deposits (29
percent of the 2017 deficit), in addition to raising domestic and
international debt (71 percent of the 2017 deficit) (Figure 27).
(SR billion)
19
February 2017
Figure 30: Broad money supply (M3) 31: Growth in credit to the private sector
(percent)
(percent)
(percent)
8 10
1.4 0
5 8
1.2 3 -1 6
0
4
1.0 -3 -2 Month-on-month change
-5 2
Year-on-year change - RHS
0.8 -8 -3 0
Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16
20
February 2017
Despite the recent improvement in Despite the recent improvement in monetary aggregates, credit
monetary aggregates, credit growth has showed recent signs of a slowdown, falling to a six-year
growth has showed recent signs of low of 2.5 percent in December 2016 (Figure 31), reflecting the
a slowdown. negative sentiment following the delays in government payments to
contractors during 2016. We, however, expect an improving trend in
Figure 32: Estimate of bank excess liquidity Figure 33: Total deposits by institution
400
(percent)
85
300 1300
82
200
79 1100
100
0 76 900
Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16
21
February 2017
7 13
6 10
8
5
5
(percent)
(percent)
4 3
3 0
2 -3
Real GDP
-5
1 Real oil GDP
-8
Real non-oil GDP
0 -10
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F
22
February 2017
23
February 2017
most of the planned spending for the year. According to the baseline
scenario represented in the FBP (See Box 2), the government is
The fiscal position will nearly planning to spend SR928 billion in 2018, representing a SR38 billion
balance. increase over the 2017 budgeted level. This spending is likely to be
increasingly targeted towards NTP initiatives and therefore be more
growth-enhancing to the private sector. That said, a new round of
A new round of reform to electricity reform to electricity prices is likely to be implemented on non-
prices is likely to be implemented households. According to the FBP, electricity pricing for non-
on non-households. households will be linked 100 percent to a reference price that would
eventually be disclosed.
The current account balance will turn positive for the first time since
2014, as both oil and non-oil exports rebound, while imports should
The current account balance will grow at a slower pace. This could have a significant impact on
turn positive for the first time since slowing the net FX reserve withdrawals. Other factors such as
2014, foreign borrowing, FDI attraction, and portfolio investment inflows will
play an increasingly important role in further slowing down the pace
of FX reserve withdrawals.
24
February 2017
Key Data
Note*: 2016 Government expenditure includes SR105 billion in due payments for previous years
Sources: Jadwa Investment forecasts for 2016 to 2017. Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency for GDP, monetary and external trade
indicators. General Authority for Statistics and Jadwa Investment estimates for oil, social and demographic indicators.
25
February 2017
Disclaimer of Liability
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document (the “Publication”)
shall not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without the specific written permission of
Jadwa Investment.
The data contained in this Research is sourced from Reuters, Bloomberg, The World
Bank, Markit, Tadawul and national statistical sources unless otherwise stated.
Jadwa Investment makes its best effort to ensure that the content in the Publication is
accurate and up to date at all times. Jadwa Investment makes no warranty,
representation or undertaking whether expressed or implied, nor does it assume any
legal liability, whether direct or indirect, or responsibility for the accuracy,
completeness, or usefulness of any information that contain in the Publication. It is
not the intention of the Publication to be used or deemed as recommendation, option
or advice for any action (s) that may take place in future.
26