Population Investigation Committee

The Estimation of Fertility Rates from Ratios of Total to First Births

Author(s): W. Brass
Source: Population Studies, Vol. 8, No. 1 (Jul., 1954), pp. 74-87
Published by: Taylor & Francis, Ltd. on behalf of the Population Investigation Committee
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 The Estimationof FertilityRates from
Ratios of Total to First Births
BY W. BRASS

In a previous paper' we considered methods of estimating fertilityand

reproductionrates from data on the reproductivehistoriesof women. These
historiescould be obtainedeitherfroma censusor a samplesurvey. The methods
were designed for use with primitivecommunitieswhere the details recorded,
particularlyof ages, mightbe inaccurate. A formulawas derived fromwhich
rate could be estimatedfromthe average numberof live births
the total fertility
to women in the reproductiveperiod when values could be obtained for certain
parameters. Various ways for estimatingthese parameterswere given. The
present paper considers the estimationof the total fertilityrate from another
ratio, namely the average number of children born to fertilewomen in the
reproductiveperiod. Under certain conditions the methods given here have
considerableadvantagescomparedwiththose alreadysuggested.
The formuladerivedin the previous paper was-

ct = 7n + P M(n -n) - a2)(I

Here W is the number of women in the reproductiveperiod and Ct the total
number of childrenever born to them,the range of reproductionbeing taken
as n years. F is the total fertility
rate and m and 02 the mean and variance of
the age-specificfertilitydistribution,where the origin is taken at the start of
the reproductiveperiod. p is a parameterwhich describesthe age distribution
of the women over thereproductiveperiod,being theslope of a straightline fitted
to this distributiondivided by W. rate calculated fromthis
The total fertility
n
formulais subject to considerableerror,if the age reportingof the women in
the population studiedis veryinaccurate. In that case the estimatesof m and p
may differappreciablyfromtheirtrue values. In addition it will be difficultto
select correctlythe women who are in the age group 0 to n. For thistype of
community,therefore,a method for estimatingthe total fertility which is less
dependent on age recordingwould be useful.
We will considertheratioM whereM is thenumberof women of reproductive
M
age who have been fertileand C, remainsas previouslydefined. We should expect
thisratioto be affectedless than CJW by variationsin the patternof fertility
and
the age distributionof women since such variationswould usuallychange C, and
Min the same direction. In the derivationof Equation (i) we assumed,in thefirst
instance,thatfertilityrateshad remainedunchangedover the period considered,
1 W. Brass," The Derivationof Fertility and ReproductionRatesfromRestrictedData on Reproduc-
tiveHistories,"Population
Studies, to throughoutas the " previous
vol. vii, no. 2. This will be referred
paper"
74

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 THE ESTIMATION OF FERTILITY RATES 75

and that migration

thatdeath ratesof women were independentof theirfertility,
was negligible. In addition to these assumptions we will, here, take it that
ratesforfirstbirthshave remainedunchanged. Then
specificfertility

F
nn,P( ~ } (2)
w [ n
(n)] 28

This equation is derivedin exactlythe same way as Equation (i) if firstbirths

are consideredinstead of all births. The total numberof firstchildrenborn to
women in the reproductiveperiod is the same as the numberof mothers,#i and
U12 are the mean and variance of the age-specificfertility distributionfor first
birthsand p has the same meaningas previously.
F1 is the cumulationof specificfertilitiesfor firstbirthsup to age n, i.e. the
proportionof a cohort of women who have borne childrenby the end of the
reproductiveperiod. The formulafor MIW is exact when the assumptionsare
true and the age distributionof the women is linear. In the case of departure
from linearityEquation (2) will still be a very good approximation,for most
populations,in the same way as Equation (i), which was testedempiricallyfora
large numberof countries. The eliminationof W from Equations (i) and (2)
gives
F /X- (2 __ cr I2-g--1(
CtM 14
I+ 1+ Ml
F, n-mil 2\ n-mJJ 2\3)l

We will considerfirstthe expression

C~_E=F n-)7
ct -n
M F1n- mn
i.e. the formulawhichwould be accurateif the age distributionwere rectangular.
The effectofp will be examinedlater.

If we replace F by F. then F =F1F. On the assumptionsF is the same

as theaveragecompletedfamilysize forall women and F, is theaveragecompleted

familysize forfertilewomen. F1 can be calculatedverysimplyas the proportion
of women who have been fertileby the end of the reproductiveperiod. If FC
can be estimated,therefore,F can be found.
The equation can be written
Ct =F -_M Fe
M n -n/
When F, is close to one the second expressionon the right-handside will be
close to zero, since the distributionof firstbirthswill be almost the same as the
distributionof all birthsand thereforemz n. It will be convenient,therefore,
to put the second expressionin termsof F -I.
Let f(x) be the age specificfertilitydistributionof all births,fi(x) that of first
births andfS(x) thatof second and subsequentbirths. Thenf(x)=fi (x)+fg(x)

and mnF=j xf(x)dx=J ri

x (fi (x) + fJ(x)) dx= F,+ m,F,

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 76 W. BRASS

wherem, is the mean of the age specificfertility of second and

distribution
higherorderbirthsand Fr=J0fs (x)dx= F - F1
ThenF (m - mi)= (m,- m1)(F - F1) and
(m- ml) F =:(in - ml)(F, - i)
for(i - .l) F, in theexpression
Substitution forCtIMgives

C/IM- Fe _
-- n - F'l(F- i)-F,-k(F,-i)
I) = where

k is put for l$- shown in Table I.

n-,
Table i

Country Year F, M1 me-Ml k rn h h (30-r)

Belgium(b) I949 2 46 I0o56 5'32 0-27 I3.72 P70 II.4
Canada I948 3 35 9 75 5'52 0-27 I3.62 073 12-0
Cyprus 1948 4-24 9190 6-52 0.32 14.88 0*72 I0*9
Denmark I946 30o6 9-82 5 77 0-29 13'71 073 II9
England &
Wales (b) 1945 2.35 Io*8I 526 0-27 I3.83 070 I3
Finland(c) 1947 2v64 II'I4 5.34 o-28 14-46 O'73 11.3
France(b) I947 2.37 io083 5.12 0-27 I3'79 0-72 II.7
Japan 1948 3-58 9-85 7'40 0-37 I5.i8 o-68 IO,I
Netherlands
(a) 1948 3-67 iir8i 5-87 0-32 i6-o8 0-72 10.0
Norway (a) 1948 2-58 II-94 5 43 0-30 I5*26 0-72z io06
Portugal(a) I947 3-76 10,22 6-70 0-34 15.4 o069 I0O3
PuertoRico I944 6o05 8-i6 6.73 0-3I 13.78 0.78 I2.7
Scotland(a) 1946 2.47 1146 4-46 0-24 I4.II 0-74 ii8
Switzerland I945 2-72 I2-05 4 57 o026 14'94 O'75 II.3
Australia(a) I936 2*76 I0*54 5 35 0o28 13.95 o*69 III
,,' 1946 2v65 I0*76 4-89 0-25 I3.80 0-74 12-0
New
Zealand (b) 192I-22 2.93 II'03 5.82 0-3I 14.86 0o70 io06
1938 2-50 II.I3 4 85 o z6 14 04 0-7I 113
I948 2.73 io066 4 87 0-25 I3.74 0-74 I210
United
States 1920 3 63 8-52 6-88 0-32 I3-50 o069 II.4
,, 1930 3.36 7'90 7.I2 0-32 12V92 0-7I I2VI
1940 2z84 8-88 6.03 0-29 I2.79 O73 i2z6
1948 2z8o 8-39 5-09 0-24 ii66 0.73 I3.4

I Age-specific ratesby birthorder for Puerto Rico, I944, were taken from J. W. Combs,
fettility
Jr.,and Kingsley Davis, " The Patternof Puerto Rican Fertility,"PopulationStudies,vol. Iv, no. 4,
andfortheUnitedStates,1920, 1930 andI940 fromVitalStatistics RatesintheUnitedStates, o900-1940,
Reports on the i6th Census of the United States,U.S. GovernmentPrintingOffice,1943. Data for
the otherpopulations,in the formof age specificfertility ratesfor total birthsand numberof births
by orderand age of mother,weretakenmainlyfromtheUnitedNations Demographic YearbookI949-50.
The exceptionswere specificfertilityratesfor New Zealand, i92i-22, obtainedfromthe Yearbookof
theLeagueof Nations,1942-44, and distributionsby birthorderfor Australia,1936, and New Zealand,
I92I-22 and I938, whichwere takenfrom the Vital StatisticsReportsfor these countriesand years.
For manyof the populationsthe birthorderstatisticsonly includedcertaincategories. In these cases
thecategoriesare denotedin thetableas follows: (a) legitimatebirthsto presentmarriage,(b) legitimate
births,(c) legitimatebirthsto presentmarriageand illegitimatebirths. The age-specificfertility rates
for birthsof different orderswere calculatedfromthose for total birthson the assumptionthat the
proportionaldistribution by orderforthe categorieswas correctforall births. The slighterrors,thus
introduced,are unimportantfor the theoreticalcomparisonsof this paper.

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 THE ESTIMATION OF FERTILITY RATES 77
The fertility ratestakenwereforbirthsin a givenyear.It would have been more
satisfactory if cohort fertilityrates could have been used, but these were not
available. The range of reproductionwas taken as I5 to 45 years and F, was
calculatedfromcumulatedage-specificfertility ratesfor these limits. It is advis-
able to take the earliestpossible age as an upper limit owing to the likelihood
of inaccurate reportingby the older women. Fertilityafterage 45 yearsis a
very small proportion of total fertility.For a number of the populations in
Table i, F1 was greaterthanunity,showing thatfirstbirthswere at a level which
could not be maintained. This would not affectthe relevanceof the calculations
made if tz and mz had values which might be met with in more normal
circumstances. Values of (mi - mi) and k for various population are in - mi
ranges from4 46 to 7 40 with a mean of S .69 and k ranges from o0 a4 to
o. 37 with a mean of o 29. k is slightlyless variable relative to its mean
than in - mi. If k is replaced by a constantvalue, say 0 3, F, can be estimated
from
CtIM Fc-o 3 (Fe- I) (4a)
If o0 3-dk is the true value of k the proportionalerrorin the estimateof Fc,

dFc is approximatelyI' 4dk (Fa I) This varies from o 7dk to i zdk as F0

c c
varies from2 to 7. The estimatesof F, fromEquation (4a) forthe populations
in Table i have a maximumerrorof 7% for Japan.
We can see fromthe resultsin Table i thatk is correlatedwith F, although
the correlationappears to be slight. It seems possible, however, that it would
have been greaterifmanyofthevalues had not been affected by thehighfirst-birth
ratesof the post-warperiod. Thus, fora cohort,F, for Japan would have been
muchhigherthan the value calculatedfor I948. In additionit has been possible
to make calculationsfor very few populations with high fertilityrates. Since
the percentageerrorcaused by a wrongvalue of k increaseswithF, it is important
to have as many data as possible for such populations. Less directcalculations
from population census data which will be discussed below indicate that, for
cohort rates,k is high when F, is high.
The discussionof the patternof childbearingwhich is given in the Appendix
suggeststhat k mightbe approximatedby an expressionof the form
a
I-b (I- I )where a and b are constants.

We have takena _ o I 5 and b= o0 70 sincethesevalues give good resultsforthe

populations for which data are available. The choice is ratherarbitrarybut the
use of more refinedmethodsto obtain estimatesof a and b would not be justified
because these populationsare, in no sense, a random selection. Substitutionfor
k gives

1-0.70c- ('-1k) (4b)

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78 W. BRASS

Table z showstheestimates of FC fromEquations(4a) and (4b), denotedby

Fa and Fb respectively,comparedwiththeobservedvaluesforthepopulations
of Table i. Equation (4b) is veryeasilysolved by iteration, the successive
approximationsto FCbeingsubstituted in theexpressionfork. The maximum
percentageerrorin Fb is slightly thanin Fa (8 % against7%). Equation
greater
(4b), however,gives betteroverallestimates,the averageabsolutepercentage
error being 2 * 3% as compared with 2 .8 % for Equation (4a). Both
equationsgive reasonablygood resultsso far as these data are concerned.

Table 2

Country Year C:/M F, F4 Fb

Belgium I 949 zvo6 2-46 2 51 2.42
Canada 1948 2 ' 7I 3 ' 35 3 44 3 44
Cyprus I948 3; I9 4-24 4 I3 4. 23
Denmark I946 2.47 3.o6 3.II 3.o6
England and Wales I945 I*98 2.35 2V40 2 3I
Finland 1947 2 I7 2- 64 z-68 2*6o
France I947 2 OI 2.37 2.44 2.34
Japan 1948 zr63 3.58 3*33 3.3I
Netherlands 1948 z28i 3 67 3>59 3.60
Norway 1948 2r I0o 2z58 2z5 8 2.49
Portugal I947 2v-8z 3 76 3.6o 3.6I
PuertoRico 1944 4 49 6o-0 5 99 6*53
Scotland I946 VIZ 2.47 2-59 2>50
Switzerland I945 z-z8 2-72 2z 83 2z76
Australia I936 2-27 2-76 zv82 274
I946 2-23 z-65 2-76 2z68
New Zealand I92I-2 2.34 2-93 2V91 2.84
1938 2VI2 250 2>59 .2- 50
I948 2 29 V73 2z84 2 77
UnitedStates I920 2-79 363 3*55 356
1930 260 3-36 3-29 3'26
1940 2V32 2 84 2 88 2 8I
1948 2v37 280 2 96 2'90

of thenumberof live birthsper womanare availablefromcensuses

Statistics
fora numberof populations.For a fewof thesefertility had changedlittlein
the 30 yearspreviousto the census. It is thuspossibleto comparethe results
fromEquations (4a) and (4b) for these populations.The comparisonsare
particularlyvaluablebecauseof the highfertilities.The resultsare shownin
Table 3.1 In eachcasethenumberofwomen,mothers andbirthsin quinquennial
age groupswas known. To eliminatethe effectof age CtIM for the range
fromthese,standardised
I 5-45yearswas calculated so thatthenumberofwomen
in eachage groupwas thesame. This introduces an erroras thewomenwould
notbe distributed evenlywithinthefiveyearage groupsbuttheerroris slight.
F. and Fb werethenestimated andthe
fromEquations(4a) and (4b) respectively,
observedaveragenumberof childrenborn to mothersaged 45-49 yearswas
takenas F,.
1 The data for Angola, Barbados, Brazil, Malta and Gozo and the WindwardIslands were taken
fromtheUnitedNations Demographic Yearbook, I 949-5 o, and fortheotherpopulationsfromtherelevant
Census Reports.

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 THE ESTIMATION OF FERTILITY RATES 79

Table 3

Census
Country Year Fo Fa F6

Angola I 940 4.44 410 4 20

Barbados I946 4.56 4'39 4'54
Brazil I940 7.27 6'49 71I6
Ceylon I946 5.62 5'24 S'59
East Africa: Goans I948 5'09 4 67 4-88
Kenya: Indians I948 6 6i 61I4 6-72
Malta and Gozo I948 71I0 6 24 6*85
Mauritius: General
Population I952 5I28* 5 IO 5'41
WindwardIslands I946 5 54 5 5?29
00

* Calculatedfrombirthsto all mothersaged 45 yearsand over and probablyan underestimate.

Fb is closerto F, thanis Fa in each instance,and for the very high rates,very

much closer. With two exceptions (one of them doubtful) Fb is less than F,
and this may indicate that the values for the constantsin Equation (4b) could
be improved. However, Fa and Fb relate to fertility up to 45 years,whereas
F, takes some account of birthsafter this age. Again, it is not improbablethat
forsome of thepopulationsfertility had decreasedslightlyin the 30 yearsprevious
to the census. We were not able to find data for countrieswith low fertility
rates,whichhad remainedunchangedoverthegenerationand forwhichEquations
(4a) and (4b) could be compared. In practicethis is not of much importance,
for very low ratesare unlikelyto be found in the type of communityfor which
these methods would be useful and the error caused by a wrong value of k
decreaseswith Fc.
The extensionof Equation (4b) to ranges other than I 5 to 45 years is made
very simply. It was shown in the previous paper that Equation (i) holds,
approximately,forall n beyond, or slightlyshort,of the end of the reproductive
period if m is calculated for the full range. The correspondingstatementis
trueforEquation (z), even more accuratelysince the proportionof firstchildren
born in the lateryears of childbearingis very small. Consequentlyif the range
takenis o to s years,k is replacedby ks where

k8
k_gS -i- -m=3~k.
30-m
s-r1 s- ml,

ANand m1 are as before. A fairlylarge variationin m, affects30 ffI

relatively
littlefor admissiblevalues of s. For the populations of Table i the mean of
ill is close to io. If thisis substitutedfor m.
k o20
-S -s- Io
k
I0

The coefficient of k is theno *8o and I * 33 fors equal to 35 and 2 5 respectively.

If, instead of io, the actual values of m1forthe populationsin Table i were sub-
stituted the rangesof the coefficient would be 0o78 to o*82 and I z29 to I 39
for the two values of s. If ks is derived fromthe above expressionlittleextra

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 W. BRASS

error,therefore,is introducedinto the equations. This has been confirmedby

direct calculation. It should be noted that the greaterthe range the smaller
is thevalue of ksand consequentlythe smallerthe effectof any given proportional
errorin k,. If it is clear that the reportingof childrenby the older women is
reasonablyaccurateand fertility has changed littlea longer range is preferable.
In othercases it should be as shortas possible. Whereverpossible calculations
should be made formorethanone range.
To studythe effectof the age distributionof the women we take into account
the factorcontainingp in Equation (3) and obtain

r P a2 +a2

m -
n~ ~~
m ?

If tm-nz- a+
TV_Cn
n--12 mlF
iS -Fas h Q.z-m1)
written
or- n+i {
mand m-_-a _
as g then

=Fc m(F) I I and m

{ !hp(n- m)N

(4b) fromk to k( - tp) where 4,is writtenforthe termin p

Fe I- in E +quation
in the bracket. The values of h (30 - n) shown in Table I are fairlyconstant
with a mean of IIx4. If this and an average for g are substitutedin the
expressionfor 4, we obtain for the range I5-45 years

t-^- 5 7P
I +4?3p
If 4, is neglectedthe proportionalerrorintroducedinto the estimateof FCvaties
from about o *, to o *60tpas Fc varies from two to seven. For p= -
and Fc==7 this erroris approximately 16%/; forp=-o.oz and Fc= 3 it
would only be p, about 4%. The effectof can, be
therefore, neglected for
moderateto small values of p and F- but must be taken into account for large
values. SinceO is only importantwhen p is moderatelylarge we will take
it as 6*sp, approximatingthep in the denominatorby -oho3. p is a parameter
which gives only a rough indicationof the age distributionand a close estimate
of its coefficient
7 in is an over-refinement. This approximationis fora reprodu-
ductive period of a5 to 45 years. g changes only slightlywith range, but the
variationin h is not negligible. By directcalculationit was found thata factor

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 THE ESTIMATION OF FERTILITY RATES 8I

I +o 03(s - 30) applied to h for a range of 30 yearsgave a satisfactory

approxi-
mationfora range of s years. The termin p forthisrangeis thengiven by
s- p{6.5+0o6(s-30)}
6*5jp {I+0o03(S-3o)}
30-M
The full equation for a range s is then
Ct 3*0{I- 6. 5P- o *6p (s - 30)}(FC- I)

- c 5)c) (
Table 4 showstheeffect ofage distribution.The censusdataforthepopulations
of Table 3 have been used with the addition of theoreticalcalculations from
ratesin specificyearsforEngland and Wales, Belgium and Portugal. Ct and M
were obtained directlyfromthe census data in the formercase but forthe addi-
tional populations they were calculated by numerical integrationfrom the
rates and the age distributionsof the women. p was taken
age-specificfertility

as 1(460 1W) where W1vand WN were the numberof womenin theage ranges

I5 to 30 and 30 to 45 respectively. Fo is the observed value of Fc, Fb the value

calculated from Equation (4b) when the age distributioneffectis eliminated,
Fk the estimatefrom Equation (5) when p is neglected and Fe the estimate
when it is taken into account. The reproductiveperiod was taken as I5 to 45
years.
Table 4

Country Year Ct/M p F. Fk F5 F"

Angola 1940 3 o6 -0?0I4 4 44 4o01 4 20 4.I7
Barbados 1946 3'30 -o oo8 4-56 4 42 4 54 4.52
Brazil 1940 4'40 -0?037 7-27 6.36 7.16 7.44
Ceylon 1946 3 65 -0o032 5-62 5 02 559 5.62
East Africa: Goans I948 3-28 -0 022 5 09 4 39 4*88 4 69
Kenya : Indians 1948 4'07 -0_036 6-6i 5 77 6.72 6.65
Malta and Gozo 1948 4.49 -0-021 7-I0 6 53 6*85 7*I0
Mauritius: GeneralPopulation 1952 3 66 -o?oz6 5vz8 5'04 5-4I 5.SI
WindwardIslands 1946 3 53 -0o029 5-54 4-8I 5 29 5.3I
Belgium I949 2vo8 -0?003 2-46 2z45 2V42 2-46
England and Wales 1945 IP99 +o-oo6 2. 35 .32 2 .3I
2 z-30
Portugal I947 2*76 -o0*I5 3-76 3-52 3*6I 3 64

The agreementbetween F6, F, and F, is fairlyclose despite the fact that

the populations chosen are of the type forwhich the errorswould be expected
to be greatestsince Fo and p are high and many of the age distributions(par-
ticularlythose forEast AfricanGoans and Malta and Gozo) are farfromlinear.
Fk is only a good approximationto F, for countriessuch as Barbados, England
and Wales and Belgium where F0 and p are moderateor small but most of the
populationsin Table i come withinthis category.
Equation (S) has manyadvantagesfor the purpose considered,i.e. the estima-
tion of F, where age reportingmightbe veryinaccurate. The only unknowns
in the equations arep and the age range s. The estimatesare not at all sensitive

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8z W. BRASS

to errorsin p. An errorof o o Iin p which is fairlylarge in view of the normal

range of this parameterwould cause an error of i to 4 per cent. in F0. No
difficultyin determiningthe lower limit of the reproductiveperiod arises since
if all young mothersare included the calculatedCt/M will differnegligiblyfrom
that obtained when the lower limit of I5 on which the equations have been
based, is used strictly. This point is importantsince thereis evidence that, in
practice,young girls withoutchildren,but over the age of 15 are oftenomitted
in sampling while the young mothersare always included. These omissions
would cause errorsin the live births/women but not thelive births/motherratio.
Mistakes in definitionat the upper age of reproductionso that women in the
age range o to s' instead of the intended o to s are included in the sample will
lead to an errorin F, which can be calculated fromthe change which should
be made in Equation (5) to obtain an estimateforthe range o' to s'. This error
is stronglydependent on F, but varies only slightlywith p. If the intended
range was 30 years but owing to bad age reporting35 years was the correct
span the proportionalerrorsin the estimatesof F, would be 3 and I2 per cent.
for F0 equal to two and seven respectively. In view of the large difference
betweenthe trueand the acceptedrangethisis a fairlysmallerror.
The methodsby which Equation (5) was obtained can also be used to derive
the relationshipbetween F, and C where C and C1 are the numberof live
Cl-
birthsand firstbirthsin a year,respectively. In the previouspaper the equation

found for C was =F _ip (n- zn)} (6)

Similarlyan approximationfor is

nCl
-FIIi
- p (n - 2zj7)}

withthe same assumptionsas before. Then

C-F{ I + P(M-)
C1 CII - ip(n- zm,)
The termin p can be written

(n-m1) kp (FI)
I - i(n - zm1)

wherek is the expressionderived previously.

In practice C and C1 would be taken as birthsfor all ages of women but the
fortherange I 5 to 45 years. In general,a greater
ratioc- would be littledifferent
range would be compensated by a negative p which was numericallylarger.
If n= 3o and m1= Io, the expressionin p becomes
z (Fo-I)
I -5P

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 THE ESTIMATION OF FERTILITY RATES 83

of (FC - i) is - o 67kbut formost popu-

Ifp is large,say-0 04, the coefficient
lations it would be much smallerthan this. We will approximatethe p in the
denominatorby -o *o3 as beforeand obtain
C _F + z 6p(Fc- i)
-
CI) (8)
1-'71
Fci
Table 5
Country Year c P F& F,

Belgium I949 2.39 -0. 003 2-46 2 4I

England and Wales I945 V38
2 +o-oo6 235 2.34
Japan I948 3.I -0027 3.58 3 45
New Zealand I948 273 -0- 002
I 273 2.75
Norway 1948 260 0-00 2758 2.59
Puerto Rico I944 4-79 -0?044 6 o5 6-25
Portugal I 947 3.50 -0-015 3 76 3 72
Switzerland I945 2.77 +o-oo6 2.72 2t 72
United States I940 2.74 -0014 2.84 2-86

Table 5 comparesFC with Fe,the estimatefromEquation (8) fora numberof

populations. p was calculated as for Table 4 and FC was taken for the range
I 5 to 45 years. The agreementbetweenFe and FC is good. When Equation (6)
was derivedin the previous paper it was pointed out thatit was liable to a con-
siderable error if the age distributionwas far from linear, in particularif the
fittedline was in poor agreementwith the observed numbersin the middle part
of the reproductiveperiod where fertility is high. This does not apply here,
however,since C and C1 would be similarlyaffected by theerrorsof fit. Equation
(8) is more sensitiveto variationsin p than Equation ( o)an errorof a i leading
to a proportional error in F, of z % to 8% depending on F, and _P. In

practice,the use of Equation (8) with CC calculated from the birthsin one
yearwould not be likelyto lead to usefulresultssince C1 is liable to large fluctua-
tions,both random,because it would be small unlessthe numberof reproductive
historieswas very large, and systematicbecause of economic and social causes
which tend to influencefirstbirthsmore than all births. If the women in the
sample were questioned about birthsin the few years previous to the survey
these difficultieswould be partly overcome. Errors by the women in recalling
the births in these years would not be importantif they influencedC and C1
in the same way and the effectof inaccuraciesin the determinationof age limits
is avoided. Similarly,the equation mightbe used with statisticsof birthregis-
trationwhich were incompleteif it could be accepted thatthe proportionsregis-
teredwere much the same for firstand all births.
In general,the assumptionsmade in the derivationof Equation (5) will not
be strictlyjustified. With the upper limits of the reproductiveperiod taken
it seems unlikelythatdifferential mortalityof the women by numberof children
born will affectCt/M appreciably. Fertilityrates, however, will not have
remained constant. In the absence of sufficientdata on age-specificfertility
rates for all and first
birthsover a long period it is not possible to make a close

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84 W. BRASS

study of the effectof changes. If there had been no consistentchange in the

average completedfamilysize of mothersbut fluctuationsin the average number
ofbirthsforanygivenage ofwoman beforetheend of reproduction,thepreceding
theorywould hardlybe affectedsince M would varyin much the same way as C,.
In fact,such fluctuationswere probablypresentfor the populations of Table 3.
Similarly,changes in the patternbut not the level of fertility
would not lessen
the accuracy of the equations much. If fertilitywere changing consistently,
the value of Ct/M would depend on how all births changed relative to first
births. We would expect Ct/Mto be more stable than Ct/W. When F is
estimatedfromFc, however, it is necessaryto calculate F1 fromthe proportion
of women at the end of the reproductiveperiod who have borne children. F1
will thereforereferto the past, and if the percentage of women who remain
childlessis changinga furthersource of errorwill be introduced. If F1 is high
this error will be small unless the change in the proportion childless is very
large but if F1 is low it could be considerable. This errorin F1 will tend to
offsetany advantagesdue to a greaterstabilityof Ct/M comparedwith Ct/W.
To show the effectof changes in an actual population the same groups in the
United States have been taken as in the previous paper but the range I 5 to 45
yearshas been used and not 15 to 40 years.' The resultsare shown in Table 6.
Ct, W and M wereall obtaineddirectlyand p was calculatedas in Table 4. m was
found from the age-specificfertilityrates given by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Fu was estimatedfrom Equation (i), F. is the Census Bureau calculation of
and F45-50is the average numberof childrenborn to the women
total fertility
of the age range given in the subscript. F, was estimatedfrom Equation (S)
and then F. obtained by multiplicationby the proportion of women in the
age range 40-45 who had borne children. This age group was selectedsince the
fractionof women who become mothersafterthe age 40 is very small, and for
a population with changingfertility the rates estimatedshould be for as recent
a timeas possible.
Table 6

1940 1935/40 I9I0 I905/I0

Section of
Population Fh F, F 45 0o F. Fh F. F4550 F,
White:
Urban 2.00 I* 83 2*3I I *68 3 I6 2. 97 3 S58 2.7I
Rural Non-Farm 2-7I
7 z-6o 2.97 2 63 3 -68 3'70 4- o8 3-92
Rural Farm 3 - 84 3-49 3 589 3 62 5 25 5.03 5.29 5
325

Total 2 44 z-26 2 72 2 20 3 83 3.69 4.14 3 59

Non-White:
Urban 2-27 I.99 2-32 I-76 3 42 3o05 4 I7 2.23
Rural Non-Farm 3-S5 3 i6 3.52 2 98 S *75 5 -63 5.85 4 49
Rural Farm 5-13 4 67 4 85 51I7 7 - 56 6 94 7 3I 6 -88

Total 3-I3 2-82 3.19 2 85 5 56 5 22 5.86 4*55

FertilityIR40 and rI9o. Reportson the i6th Census of the

1 The data were takenfromDifferential
United States,U.S. GovernmentPrintingOffice,1943 and 1944,

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 THE ESTIMATION OF FERTILITY RATES

For every group except one Fh is higher than F., and F. is closer to F.
than Fh in all but two instances. In general,however,F,, is lower than would
be expected on the theoryand this seems to be due to a fortuitoushappening,
namelydecreasesin the mean age of women at childbirthso thatthe M'scalculated
fromthe ratescurrentat the census dates were lower thanthose which had held
over the generation. With one slight exception,for all groups where F4550
differssubstantiallyfromF,, F. lies betweenthe two values, althoughfor some
of the non-whitegroups it is much closer to the formerthan the latter. In the
main Fh appears to be quite a fair estimateof the average completed family
size for the 1940 data, since the fertilityincrease since 1940 suggests that Fu,
for 193 5-40 is too low to representthe ratesfora generation. For the non-white
rural groups in I910, the resultsfor F, are not too satisfactory. This seems to
be partlya consequence of bad estimatesforp in conjunctionwith the greater
sensitivityof Equation (S) to errorsin this parameterwhen F, is large and p
large and negative. The estimatescan be improvedby the calculationofp from
a least squares fittingof a straightline or an extensionof the range to I 5 to 50
years. For example,if the latteris done Fj is estimatedas 7 3a for the rural
farmgroup.
Table 7

Age Group of Total Live Total Live Births

Womenin Years Numberof Women Numberof Mothers Births Per Mother

15-19 276 I3I 158 I 21

20-24 330 226 363 i*6i
25-29 366 277 609 2 20
30-34 222 I85 462 2 -50
35-39 250 2o6 53I 2.58
40-44 2I0 I8o 5i6 2.87
45-49 I58 I36 389 2-86
50 and over 540 396 I,201 3'03

I5-39 I,444 1,025 2,I23 2-07

15-49 I,8I2 1,341 3,o28 2-26

To illustratethe use of the method in practice we will apply it to data for

women of Bukoba in Tanganyikaon the west side of Lake Victoria. The repro-
ductive historieswere collected by the East AfricanMedical Survey. Results
are given in Table 7 for a sample slightlyaugmentedcompared with that used
in thepreviouspaper. From Equation (5) F, is estimatedas 2z*72, witha reproduc-
tive range of I5-40 years and 2-7I with I5-50 years. p was calculated by a
method similarto that given before. Agreementwith the average number of
childrenper motheraged 40-44 and 45-49 yearsis quite good. The proportion
of childless women is close to i4% for both the age groups 40-44 and
45-49, although it should be noted that 27% of the women over S? were
recordedas childless. If F, is takenas o86 the totalfertility
is estimatedat z*34.
The estimatesfromEquation (i) with ranges 15-40 and I5-50 years and
m=8 *o to 9 *5 varyfrom2z z6 to 2z 53. The agreementbetween the resultsfrom
thetwo methodsindicatesthatthe age recordingof the women musthave been
of 23 to 2z 5 can be acceptedas reliable.
fairlyaccurate and that a total fertility

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86 W. BRASS

APPENDIX
With the notationin the text
n F8 =jx (f(x) - fn(x))dx=jx (f2(X) +f3(X) +f4(X) + * * )dX
-2 F2 + n3 F3+Ma4 F4 +
wheref1(x), f2(x), etc., are age-specificfertilitydistributionsfor the births of
ordergiven by the subscript, F1,F2, etc.,are theintegralsfrom0 to n of the specific
and 9z, M2, etc., theirmeans. The termson the right-handside of the
fertilities
equation continuetillthe highestbirthorderis reached. Then
F,,(.S - m1)=F2(m2 - Ml)+ F3(m3- m1)+ F4(M4 - M1) +
_Fl'(in2 - m1)+ F2'(M3- M2)+ F3'(m4-3) +
where F1.'-F2+ F3 + F4+ .. .- - FF =Fs
F2'=F3+F4+F+ .-. . -F-F1-F2
etc. Therefore
- +ma
- 4 - MS
MS-
5 Ml=("2
1= (n2 ~MO)tI I){ +F2/I F 9973-
t83 2 2F-/~
+F31 I ~'~
F1' 3-Mn +
ml
To a firstapproximationthe seriesF, F1', F2' is a geometricalprogression. The
series (i2 - 1), (M3 - "2), (i4 - M3), * . . is decreasingand canal so be fitted
fairlywell by a geometricalprogressionwith ratio b (say). The sum to infinity
of the bracketedterms is a good approximationto the finiteseries since the
proportionof birthsof very high ordersis small and
in - Ml

I -b F-
If 2 m= a, thenapproximately F
30 - m

M'S "'m
k a
a
30 -ml

Table A gives the values of a forthe populations of Table i.

Table A
Country Year F, a

Belgium 1949 2.46 0-142

Canada 1948 3'35 0-146
Cyprus I948 4*24 O*II8
Denmark I946 30o6 0-174
England and Wales I945 2.35 0-178
Finland 1947 2-64 0-133
France 1947 2.37 0-146
Japan I948 3.58 0-135
Netherlands 1948 3-67 0-143
Norway 1948 2.58 o0i83
Portugal 1947 3.76 0I20
Puerto Rico 1944 6o05 0o089
Scotland 1946 2.47 0-134
Switzerland I945 2-72 0-I43
Australia I936 2-76 0I22
lolo ~~~~~1946 2-65 0-142
New Zealand I921-22 2-9306125
,, 1938 2-50 OI29
,, 1948 2.73 0.130
United States 1920 3-63 0-125
,,I1 1930 3.36 0'14I
1940 2-84 0.115
,,________________________ I948 2-80 0-130

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 THE ESTIMATION OF FERTILITY RATES 87

on FGis significantly
The meanof thea's is o I37. The regression negative
but small.
The rangeofthe m'sis givenby
(M2 M)
1 + (M3 - M2) + (M4 - 3) +**

whichis equal to -ab approximately.This rangemustbe roughlythe same

fordifferent sincethereproductive
populations perioddoes notvaryverymuch.
valuesthenan approximation
If a and b aregivenconstant fork willbe obtained.
Owing to the regressionof a on F, the constantto replacea whichwill give
thebestresultswill be somewhathigherthan o -I 37.

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