1.

Events, classic probability calculations, axioms and thesis

In a restaurant in order to speed up the communication the following events are defined: Y - there is yoghurt in the
Tasks:
a) Determine the meaning of the following events:
Y∩S
a1) both yoghurt and cheese
Y∪S
a2) one of them is in the fridge
Y ̅ ∩ S
a3)
Y ∪ S ̅ only cheese
a4) only yoghurt

b) Express the following events using the appropriate notations:

b1) None is available in the fridge. Y ̅ ∩ S ̅
b2) Only cheese is in the fridge. ((Y) ̅ ∩ S)
b3) Exactly one of the products is in the fridge.
b4) At least one of the products is out. Y ̅ ∪ S ̅
ned: Y - there is yoghurt in the fridge; S - there is cheese in the fridge.
notations ∩ ∪
AND OR

Y ̅ ∩ S
((Y) ̅ ∩ S) ∪ (Y ∪ S ̅)

 ̅
2. Events, classic probability calculations, axioms and thesis
In a wellness-hotel according to the experiences 60% of the guests avail themselves of wellness services,
and 30% of those having wellness also go to have a massage. 25% of the guests using only massage services.
Tasks:
Answer the following questions:
a) What percentage of the guests use only the wellness services?
b) What percentage of the guests is using exactly one of the service types?
c) What percentage of the guests are not using any of the two services types?
d) Is it independent using wellness and massage? Justify it!
answer: not independent
justification condition of independence: P(W) * P(M) = P(W ∩ M)

W M

42% 18% 25%

15%
 Let it be:
mselves of wellness services, W the randomly chosen
ests using only massage services. M the randomly chosen
Data:
P(W) 0.60
P(W)-P(M∩W) 0.42 P(M|W)=P(M∩W)/P(W) 0.30
P(W\M)+P(M\W) 0.67 P(M\W)=P(M)-P(W∩M) 0.25
1-P(M∪W) 0.15 Calculations:
P(W*M) or P(W∩M) 0.18
P(M)=P(M\W)+P(M∩W) 0.43
0.258 ≠ 0.18

W M

W\M M∩W M\W

𝑀 ´
∪𝑊
(𝑀∪𝑊) ̅
the randomly chosen guest takes part in wellness services
the randomly chosen guest goes for massage
3. Sampling with replacement
In Budapest on certain lines 60% of the buses are already low-floor buses (LF bus).
A passenger rides the buses precisely 20-times per week.
TASKS:
a) What is the probability that he travels exactly 10-times with LF bus?
b) What is the probability that he travels with LF bus during the week?
c) What is the probability that he travels at least 10-times with LF bus during the week?
d) What is the probability that he does not travel less than 6-times with LF bus?
e) What is the probability that he does not travel with LF bus?
f) What is the probability that he travels more times with LF bus than he does not?

n 20
p 0.6 a) 0.11714155053639
BINOM.DISTR(k;n;p;FALSE) b) 0.9999999890
k p(x) c) 0.872478753852784
0 1.0995116E-08 d) 0.125598972723037
1 3.2985349E-07 e) 0.0000000110
2 4.7004122E-06 f) 0.755337203316394
3 4.230371E-05
4 0.00026968615
5 0.00129449352
6 0.00485435071
7 0.01456305213
8 0.03549743956
9 0.07099487911
10 0.11714155054
11 0.159738478
12 0.17970578775
13 0.16588226562
14 0.12441169921
15 0.07464701953
16 0.0349907904
17 0.01234969073
18 0.00308742268
19 0.00048748779
20 3.6561584E-05
1.000000E+00
 k=10
k>=1 1-(k=0)
k>=10
k>=15
k=0
k>=11
4. Sampling with replacement
In a restaurant 70% of the people drinks coffee after meal. One day a company of 30 people dropped in.
TASKS:
What is the probability that from the company
a) exactly 20 of them orders coffee?
b) at least 3 of them do not order coffee?
c) everybody ask for coffee?
d) someone orders coffee?
e) more people order coffee than those of do not ask for it?
(Whereas the total number of the people visiting this restaurant is unknown, but it can be assumed that plenty, thu
by sampling with replacement.)
dropped in.

sumed that plenty, thus probabilities can be approximated well

5. Sampling without replacement
A limited company carries out quality check: every day 10 croissants are picked at the same time from the 100 piec
(sampling without replacement method). The expected weight of the croissant is 80 g/pc. When the weight of the
from it by 5 g, it is considered as defective and it is ground to crumbs. From earlier tests it is known that the defec
croissants is 10%.
TASKS:
a) What is the probability that there are two defective croissants in the sample?
b) What is the probability that there are maximum 2 defective pieces in the sample?
c) What is the probability that there is at least one defective croissant in the sample?
d) Compare the results above with sampling with replacement in Excel.

N 100
n 10
M 10 N*p
p 0.1
HYPGEOM.DISTR(k;n;M;N;FALSE) d) BINOM.DISTR(k;n;p;FALSE)
k p(x) without repl
0 0.33047621 0.348678 a) 0.20151 k=2
1 0.40799532 0.38742 b) 0.939981 k=<2
2 0.20150988 0.19371 c) 0.669524 k>=1
3 0.05179371 0.057396 0.669524
4 0.00755325 0.01116
5 0.0006398 0.001488
6 3.0998E-05 0.000138
7 8.144E-07 8.748E-06
8 1.0411E-08 3.645E-07
9 5.1992E-11 9E-09
10 5.7769E-14 1E-10
1.000E+00 1.00E+00
e same time from the 100 pieces produced
g/pc. When the weight of the sampled croissant differs
ests it is known that the defective ratio of produced

with repl
0.19371
0.929809
1-(k=0) 0.651322
6. Sampling without replacement
20% of 80 bulbs are 60W strong, the others are 100W. Randomly 6 bulbs are sampled at the same time.
TASKS:
What is the probability that in the sample
a) there are maximum 3 pieces of 100W bulbs?
b) there are more than 2 pieces 60W bulbs?
c) all or none of them are 60W bulbs?
d) there are more 100W bulbs than 60W ones?
(Sampling is done at the same time and the total population is known, that's why it is a sampling without replacem
ed at the same time.

is a sampling without replacement.)

7. Conditional probability, independency
In a workplace staff-members can choose from three free-of-charge services. Demands were surveyed and the tab
TASKS:
Determine the following probabilities:
a) What is the probability that a staff-member chose massage?
b) What is the probability that someone chose opera as long as he is a man? (= What is the probability that a man
c) What is the probability that the staff-member is a man as long as he chose opera? (= What is the probability tha
d) What is the probability that a staff-member is woman and wellness is chosen?
e) Do the different genders choose the different services independently?

a)

Massage Wellness Opera

b)
Man 6 34 22 62 c)
Woman 12 15 20 47 d)
18 49 42 109 e)
nds were surveyed and the table below is resulted (heads).

at is the probability that a man chooses opera?)

? (= What is the probability that a staff-member choosing opera is a man?

0.165138

0.354839
0.52381
0.137615

P(male∩massage) = P(male)*P(massage) condition of independency

0.055046 ≠ 0.093931
THEY ARE NOT INDEPENDENT
8. Conditional probability, independency
Food samples were taken and sent to a laboratory from a restaurant in order to check for salmonella infection. In th
samples were analysed in a standardized process. The process is very exact: 99,5% of the infections can be detected
due to the sensibility of the test - 2% of the samples not infected are also marked as positive. All positive samples a
again.
According to the experiences of the laboratory 0,1% of the samples tested are infected.
TASKS:
a) Prepare a contingency table from the data!
b) What is the probability that the sample is infected as long as the test is positive?
c) What is the probability that the sample is not infected as long as the test is positive?
d) What is the probability that the sample is infected as long as the test is negative?
e) What is the probability that the sample is not infected and the test is negative?
f) What is the probability that the test negative in case of an infected sample?
g) Do the test result and the infection of the sample independent from each other?

test positive test negative

infected sample 0.000995 5E-06 0.001
not infected sample 0.01998 0.97902 0.999
0.020975 0.979025 1
 lmonella infection. In the laboratory
fections can be detected, however -
e. All positive samples are tested

b) 0.047437
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)