Oil uncertainty causes accidental war – its really bad because it definitely

involves Iran
CBS, 2019
(“Iran news: "Sabotage attacks" on Saudi oil tankers stoke fears of "conflict happening by accident",” CBS, 13 May 2019,
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-news-saudi-arabia-sabotage-oil-tankers-fujairah-uae-fears-us-iran-conflict-2019-05-13/)
Saudi Arabia said Monday two of its oil tankers were sabotaged off the coast of the United Arab Emirates in attacks
that caused "significant damage" to the vessels. One of the ships was en route to pick up Saudi oil to take to the United States, a
Saudi government minister said. The announcement by the kingdom's energy minister, Khalid al-Falih, came on the heels of a new warning
to sailors in the region from the U.S. While no blame was cast at Iran or any other nation for the alleged attack on the ships, it fuelled fears
that a miscommunication or small act of antagonism in the politically charged region could quickly
escalate into a full conflict. Late last week the U.S. Maritime Administration warned commercial shipping companies
that from the beginning of May there had been, "an increased possibility that Iran and/or its regional proxies could take
action against U.S. and partner interests, including oil production infrastructure, after recently threatening to close the
Strait of Hormuz. Iran or its proxies could respond by targeting commercial vessels, including oil tankers, or U.S. military vessels in the Red
Sea, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, or the Persian Gulf." As U.S. bombers arrive, defiant Iran says U.S. "will not dare" attack The statement from the
Saudi government on the alleged "sabotage attacks" off the United Arab Emirates port at Fujairah came just hours after Iranian and
Lebanese media outlets aired false reports of explosions at the port, which sits less than 100 miles from the mouth of the vital Strait of
Hormuz shipping channel. Emirati officials have declined to elaborate on the nature of the sabotage or say who might have been
responsible. A U.S. defense official told CBS News national security correspondent David Martin that the UAE had requested American
assistance investigating the incidents, and the U.S. was sending a team of investigators to help. A total of four tankers sustained some
damage on Sunday, according to UAE officials. One of the others was Norwegian owned, but officials in that country did not immediately
confirm any links to the apparent attacks on the Saudi-flagged vessels. Early Sunday, the U.S. Maritime Administration issued a new warning
to sailors about the alleged sabotage, while stressing "the incident has not been confirmed." It urged shippers to exercise caution in the area
for the next week. It remains unclear if the previous warning from the U.S. agency is the same perceived threat, or part of it, that prompted
the White House to order the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group and the B-52 bombers to the region on May 4. Iran calls for
details Shortly after the Saudi announcement, Iran's Foreign Ministry called for further clarification about what exactly happened with the
Saudi tankers. The ministry' spokesman, Abbas Mousavi, was quoted by the official IRNA news agency as saying there should be more
information about the incident. Mousavi also warned against any "conspiracy orchestrated by ill-wishers" and "adventurism by foreigners" to
undermine the maritime region's stability and security. An Iranian lawmaker suggested in the country's parliament on Monday that
the attacks on the Saudi ships could have been carried out by unspecified "saboteurs" from an also
unspecified third country. Fears of an escalation Even without any actual accusation that Iran or its "proxies" were behind the
purported attack on the Saudi tankers, the incident clearly demonstrated how high tensions are in the region , and
some other countries were quick to express their concern. Britain's Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt warned of the risks of
an "accident" sparking a conflict between the United States and Iran. "We are very worried about the risk
of a conflict happening by accident with an escalation that is unintended ," Hunt said in Brussels, where U.S.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived to discuss the Iran standoff with European counterparts. "What we need is a period of calm to make
sure that everyone understands what the other side is thinking," Hunt said, adding that would share those concerns Monday with his
European partners and Pompeo. Underlying the regional risk, the general-secretary of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council described the
alleged sabotage as a "serious escalation" in an overnight statement. "Such irresponsible acts will increase tension and
conflicts in the region and expose its peoples to great danger ," Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani said. Bahrain, Egypt and
Yemen's internationally recognized government similarly condemned the alleged sabotage. Tensions have risen in the year since
President Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers,
restoring American sanctions that have pushed Iran's economy into crisis. Last week, Iran warned it would
begin enriching uranium at higher levels in 60 days if world powers failed to negotiate new terms for the deal.