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USA-Iran Conflict

Article · January 2020

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 USA-Iran Conflict

*S. M. Azharul Islam

Historical Context

Iran-West relations always went through a lot of ups and downs since 1921. Reza Shah Palavi
was able to establish a monarchy in 1921 through assistance from United Kingdom. On account
of foreign assistance from the same UK alongside Russia, Reza Shah Palavi was then expelled in
1941. Mohammed Reza Shah, son of Reza Shah Palavi, took charge of the monarchy in 1941.
Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddeq was democratically elected as the Prime Minister of Iran
in 1951. His decision to nationalise the oil industry of Iran was not welcomed by the West.
Owing to the coup d'état of 1953, he could not stay in power for long. Central Intelligence
Agency and Military Intelligence, Section 6 masterminded this coup d'état to give supreme
power to Mohammad Reza Shah. Mohammad Reza Shah was mostly dependent on USA and
Israel. Demonstrations started in 1978 marking the commencement of Iranian revolution that
aimed to overthrow the government of Reza Shah as corruption became rampant.

In January 1979, Reza Shah fled Iran alongside his family. Monarchy was abolished and Prime
Minister Shahpur Bakhtiar took the office for a short span of time. Bakhtiar was not accepted by
the people so he went to France in February. Sayyid Ruhollah Khomeini took the office and
declared Iran as Islamic Republic in April based on a popular consent. Khomeini decided to form
Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran in 1979 to protect Iran from any form of foreign intervention
especially keeping the British-American led coup d'état of 1953 in mind. Following the anti-
western sentiment and the longstanding support of US towards the previous dictatorial regime,
American hostages were kept captive in US Embassy Tehran in November 1979. American
hostages included civilians and diplomats who were kept captive for 444 days. Americans were
infuriated and they supported the Iraqis to invade Iran on 22 nd September 1980 that resulted to
Iran-Iraq War. Iran-Iraq War continued until 1988. Iran and USA became lifelong enemies to
each other by then and they had no formal diplomatic ties since 1980. Tensions escalated during
the period of 1985-1986 as there were allegations against USA for shipping weapons to Tehran
in exchange of American hostages in Lebanon. American warship USS Vincennes contributed to
the flame by shooting down an Iranian passenger plane leading to 290 deaths in 1988. In 2002,
President George Bush termed Iran as a force of evil which enraged Iran. Concerns about Iran’s
nuclear programme also came into light during the same period. During the regime of Hassan
Rouhani, he exchanged a formal phone call with President Barack Obama. This phone call was
the only recognised diplomatic exchange at the highest level since 1979. Moreover, Iran signed
the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. President Trump abandoned the JCPOA and re-
established the economic sanctions that contributed to recession in Iran since 2018. On account
of several threats from the American President Trump, an American military drone was gunned
down by the security forces in Iran on 20th June 2019. In response this attack, US decided to take
revenge using cyberattacks on the missile control systems of Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps. Recently Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani was killed by an American drone strike
in Iraq. President Trump could have done this avoid impeachment as well as to be re-elected as
the ‘Leader of the Free World’ once again. Subsequently, Iran launched a series of missiles at the
American military bases in Iraq. Hence, the tensions between Iran and USA are far from over.

Responses from the International Community

The death of Major General Qasem Soleimani was not welcomed by the world. Many countries
clearly stated that this death has resulted into more menaces for the world. UN Secretary General
Antonio Guterres stated that the state leaders must not engage in warfare. De-escalation of the
tensions was stressed by German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas. Anwar Gargash, United Arab
Emirates Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, called for a pragmatic approach to the situation.
Saudi Arabia also asked for precautionary measures to prevent the catastrophic consequences.
Amelie de Montchalin, Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, French Republic, stated that
military escalation can always have devastating repercussions. Sergey Lavrov, Foreign Minister
of Russian Federation, condemned the killing and termed it as a flagrant violation of the
international law. Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates of Syria condemned the killing and
blamed American intervention for further instability and chaos in the region. Houthi rebels also
mourned the killing of Major General Soleimani. Ashraf Ghani, President of Afghanistan,
expressed the death of Major General Soelimani could lead to a more unprecedented outcome for
the region. Concerns have emerged that Islamic State can resurface after the death of Major
General Soleimani.

Recent Situations

Before the death of Soleimani, American embassy in Baghdad was surrounded by a group of Iraq
Shiite militia. American military strikes killed Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani on 3rd
January 2020. Iran was deeply moved by the death of such an influential figure and there were
huge rallies to mourn the death of Soleimani. Soleimani was the commander of the Quds Force
of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He was seen as a primary force in fighting the terrorist
groups across the region especially Iraq. After his death, Iraqi Parliament called for expulsion of
American troops from her soil on 5th January 2020. On the same day, President Donald Trump
even threatened to attack 52 Iranian sites in case there is any retaliation from the Iranian side.
Iran retaliated the killing of one of their most decorated soldiers on 08th January 2020 with more
than 12 missiles at US airbases which are located in Anbar and Erbil. Iranian Foreign Minister
Javad Zarif tweeted that Iran has followed the Article 51 of UN Charter and took commensurate
measures with regard to self-defense. Iranian media claimed at least 70 American soldiers got
killed while the Pentagon denied such claims. Recently Pentagon gave a statement referring to
the brain injury of 34 US troops. On 09th January 2020, The House of Representatives restricted
the power of President Donald Trump to avoid going for an all-out war with Iran. Iran admitted
on 11th January 2020 that it involuntarily shot down a Ukrainian jetliner that led to 176 deaths.
Protests erupted in Iran against the current regime right after this statement. Government of
Canada and Ukraine has expressed concerns over the death of innocent civilians and asked Iran
to carry out proper investigation alongside paying compensation.

The armed forces of US are largely reliant on the assets which are available at space. These
assets are used for each stage of US military operations. American satellites in space give all
forms of key information to the US troops. USA and Iran are now at the brink of war over the
drone attack aided by satellites which command and control the nature of military operations.
Cyberattack is a prominent option for Iran to avenge the death of Soleimani. Ongoing proxy wars
in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan can be more brutal through increased support from Iran. On
account of the death of Soleimani, Iran can also reject the nuclear deal. Strait of Hormuz, Persian
Gulf and Gulf of Oman can also be attacking points for Iran in terms of strategic interests. Iran is
not economically or militarily ready to go to war with USA yet it will resort to other means to
serve the vengeance for the death of Soleimani. USA-Iran dynamic change will undermine
credibility of President Donald Trump. Instability will prolong in the Middle East as the tensions
remain and furthermore, the traditional allies of USA are set to choose a different path rather
than waging a war. China, Russia and Iran already began joint naval exercises at The Gulf of
Oman by the last week of December 2019 in order to send clear messages to the world.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The conflict between Iran and USA will persist if both nations do not take a step forward. USA
must first suspend the sanctions imposed on Iran in order to create a space for dialogue on issues
of mutual interest. Iran shall also fully comply with all the terms and conditions of the Iran
Nuclear Deal. Numerous Iranian inmates are kept in America and many American inmates are
kept in Iran so prisoner swap among both these countries is crucial to establish harmony.
Germany, France, United Kingdom, China and Russia should also step up their approaches to
meet the obligations of the Iran Nuclear Deal. Diplomatic ties must be reestablished between
USA and Iran so that there is no communication vacuum. Appointment of a credible
representative to both the countries immediately is a must for the peace-building process. USA
and Iran must sign bilateral treaties to avoid hazardous confrontation on key strategic points:
Gulf of Oman, Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. War would bring unbearable adversities hence
Iran and USA should sit at the negotiation table at the earliest.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………

S. M. Azharul Islam completed his graduation from East West University Bangladesh. He
is currently pursuing his post-graduation degree from University of Dhaka Bangladesh.
His research focus revolves around human trafficking, refugee and migration studies,
human security, radicalisation, international affairs and foreign policy.
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