Environmental Challenges 2 (2021) 100025

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Environmental Challenges
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envc

Fuzzy dynamic system analysis of pollution accumulation in the Anzali

wetland using empirical-nonlinear aspects of an
economically-socio-environmental interest conflict
Hamid Sarkheil a,∗, Hamid Reza Rezaei b, Behzad Rayegani c, Samira Khorramdin c,
Shahrokh Rahbari d
a
Department of Human Environment, College of Environment, Karaj, and, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Kharazmi University, Iran
b
Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
c
Department of Natural Environment and Biodiversity, College of Environment, Karaj, Iran
d
Department of Human Environment, College of Environment, Karaj, Iran

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Keywords: Wetlands employ extensive ranges of environmental consideration, pollution control, and financial services in
Anzali wetland the premise of sustainability. Hence, the study of the pollution of the wetlands is vital. The Anzali wetland-
Nonlinear equation being scoped in this research is located in the Caspian Sea vicinity, the northern part of the Persian plate. Due
Fuzzy
to proximity to densely populated rural and urban areas, large-scale industries, and agricultural activities, the
Contamination
wetland is exposed to various environmental problems, most of which would be water and soil pollutants. While
Irreversible
on the other hand, it provides social, economic, and ecological advantages to local, national, and even worldwide
communities in sustainable development. This wetland is in contact with some activities with the main economic
benefits investigated in this study and listed in nine sectors. This study’s proposed ecological model is a dynamic
attitude giving the complex ecological feedback mechanisms to integrate economic aspects. While introducing
the wetland restoration level, solving the given model’s governing equations specifies the wetland’s critical points
by providing nonlinear equations between economic and ecological parameters. They were also introduced and
applied an empirical fuzzy method solution for the dynamic state analysis of the Anzali wetland. Results show that
the Anzali wetland system was irreversible in phosphorus resilience at 0.112% of the wetland entrance. By plotting
the wetland’s general condition, it was determined that the Anzali wetland is in high levels of contamination and
needs urgent care. Finally, the risk of economic activities in the nine sections studied in this study should reach
as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) risk level via more supervision.

1. Introduction
Wetlands are known as shallow lakes, usually having the potentials
to provide the equilibrium between parameters: environment, society,
and economics, as highlighted by sustainable development. So most of
them are listed as essential enviro-sites in various environmental con-
ventions (JICA, 2005). The Anzali wetland, in 1971, was listed as one of
the environmentally-important wetlands in the Ramsar convention held
by Iran. The key objective of the Ramsar Convention, signed in 1971,
is the conservation and wise use of wetlands by national planning and
international cooperation as a means for moving toward sustainable de-
velopment (Jones et al., 2009). The Ramsar wetland site is one of the
most resource-rich ecosystems globally (Mmopelwa, 2006; Jones et al.,
2012). Sustainable development has been the central axis of this conven-
tion, bringing about advantageous conservative land uses (Jones et al.,
2009; Esmaeilzadeh et al., 2016). However, sustainable wetland man-
agement policies following the Ramsar Convention have received much
attention from habitat protection authorities (Birol et al., 2006).
Wetlands are usually known as the only remaining open space places
which encounter optimal uses and human-made damages, which both
may be interpreted as interfering factors endangering the whole envi-
ronment. Moreover, despite their functional value, such areas are often
under development pressure. Protect wetlands and their functional val-
ues, and various laws have been enacted, including criteria for defining
wetlands (Turner et al., 2000). In some instances, legal definitions of
wetlands have been based on criteria such as hydric or poorly drained

∗
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: Sarkheil_h@yahoo.co.uk (H. Sarkheil).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2021.100025
Received 14 December 2020; Received in revised form 9 January 2021; Accepted 10 January 2021
2667-0100/© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
H. Sarkheil, H.R. Rezaei, B. Rayegani et al.
soils, depth to the seasonal water table, and water occurrence at the
ground surface (MacKay et al., 2008). The significant shortcomings of
such criteria are that they are challenging to observe in the field and
require detailed measurements over some time. However, individual
plants require or tolerate water near the surface for a critical part of
their growing season. When present in a plant community in significant
proportions, these plant species serve as reliable wetlands indicators,
reflecting long-term soil and groundwater conditions (Shariati et al.,
2019).
Moreover, plant communities dominated by wetland plants can be
much more readily delineated and mapped than wetland soils or ground-
water.
Moreover, that is why there is an increasing tendency for wetland
legislation to incorporate definitions based on plant criteria. Environ-
mental management goals also play a vital role in protecting the en-
vironment by implementing environmental sustainability measures and
identifying, evaluating, and controlling environmental impacts and risks
(Sarkheil et al., 2019). The establishment of ISO 14001 (EMS), Environ-
mental Management System, and integrated health, safety, and envi-
ronment management system (HSE-MS) in the workplace is essential.
Addressing this issue is one of the business priorities in organizations
(Sarkheil and Rahbari, 2016a, 2016b). Of course, perfect treatment or
elimination of all present risks (here: pollutants) needs many financial
and human resources (Sarkheil and Rahbari, 2017). In some cases, these
risks (pollutions) are uncontrollable and impose more costs on environ-
mental protection systems in industrialized countries (Sarkheil et al.,
2018; Sarkheil and Rahbari, 2015).
Wetlands are increasingly under threat due to climate changes as in
water regimes changes (Baihua et al., 2015). Many of the problems faced
by the wetland ecosystem interruptions (Espinosa and Schröder, 2019).
It is also essential to pay attention to wetlands’ economic valuations
(Chaikumbung and Doucouliagos, 2016).
Over the last few decades, Anzali wetland has been in potential and
severe pollutants, especially from physical and chemical properties and
heavy metals concentration (Shariati et al., 2019). The results of chem-
ical partitioning studies show that anthropogenic agents have the high-
est portion in the source of pollution. Also, agriculture creates addi-
tional environmental pressures on the wetlands (Azad and Tihomir An-
cev, 2010, 2014; Prieto and Finlayson, 2009). So that, this wetland has
a unique ecosystem in the world with high ecological diversity and is
highly threatened by various factors such as pollutants, sedimentation,
unauthorised development of urban infrastructure, over-harvesting of
wetland resources, land-use changes, and invasive species, one of the
most challenging destructive factors, land-use change. Heavy metals are
fundamental problems in aquatic systems as they affect the water body’s
ecological balance. The biological availability of metal is dependent on
its chemical form (Khaleghizadeh, 2007). Environmental risk modeling
is essential in the confrontation between nature and human interests
and even related activities (Sarkheil et al., 2020a).
Considering economic benefits and environmental aspects, looking
at Anzali Wetland can lead to a different study. Elements polluting the
wetland are addressed to investigate a dynamic study on the extent of
the wetland’s recurrence and irreversibility as an innovative and prac-
tical goal. The risk of economic activities in the nine sections studied
in this study should reach as low as reasonably practicable risk level by
more supervision.
2. Study area
The wetland of Anzali is one of the 18 international and important
Iranian wetlands listed in the Ramsar Convention. It is located southwest
of the Caspian Sea (Fig. 1).
This wetland is in contact with some activities which have main eco-
nomic benefits, which are investigated in this study and listed in nine
sectors as below:
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Environmental Challenges 2 (2021) 100025
2.1. Agricultural sector
The role of Anzali wetland in increasing agricultural production is
undeniable. The use of freshwater resources and livestock activities in
marginal lands and flooding highlights the wetland’s importance. The
area under rice cultivation and buffaloes’ apparent presence in these
areas can be considered compatible with the wetland ecosystem (Fig. 2).
So the agricultural sector exhibits mostly positive ecological, social, and
economic interests in respect.
2.2. Fish breeding sector
The existence of a living aquatic environment such as the Anzali wet-
land near the Caspian Sea and the possibility of its extensive connection
with the sea practically provides a favorable environment for the breed-
ing of various fish species. The number of 20 fish species is approved
to be living in Anzali wetland, among which 11 species are native fish,
eight migratory species, and one is semi-migratory species. Migratory
fish such as whitefish and brooms come to the wetland for spawning
and breeding and then spawn into the sea. Native fish such as carp and
fish ducks live permanently in the wetland. The most important fishes of
the Anzali wetland are whitefish, swords, wires, fish ducks, word, mung
bean, carp, black currant, fish, blueberries, and several other fishes.
In reply to Caspian Sea fish into Anzali wetland (other than massive
fish and most fish suspicion), we found that changes in seawater temper-
ature and the wetland area’s environmental conditions habitat are the
most favorable places for Fish farming and fish breeding. As the rivers
flow through the forest and the plain, they have brought different kinds
of nutrients and various salts and oxygen into the wetland.
On the other hand, Anzali wetland is an excellent habitat for fish by
having fresh water and various aquatic plants and aquatic animals. For
this reason, it can be said that this wetland is traditional and natural,
the harbor and the spawning place of various marine and river fish. The
gentle flow of water and its relative tranquility in the wetland, the pos-
sibility of sprouting the Nero fish, provides the females with favorable
conditions, and the roots and stems of aquatic plants are an excellent
adhesion for larvae of fishes (Ashley, 2001).
The clean and clear water of the wetland resulting from the deposi-
tion of precipitates, with the possibility of using light and sunlight and
having a sensible heat, creates an ecological environment for the devel-
opment and expansion of larvae. Each year, flocks of fish for spawning
and reproduction are introduced into Anzali wetland. These fishes are
the source of massive fish made by various fish species in Anzali wet-
land.
As a result, the fishing sector exhibits mostly positive ecological, eco-
nomic, and social interest.
2.3. Habitat of migratory birds sector
Anzali Wetland is one of the best and most suitable habitats for dif-
ferent types of migratory water birds. Dozens of migratory birds choose
their Anzali wetland for winter during their migration and winter jour-
ney. The Caspian Sea basin is one of the most critical habitats for mi-
gratory waterbirds located at the geographical distribution center. The
geese and ducks’ population in western Siberia, the Caspian Sea, and
the Nile, and more than 10 to 12 million birds fly on this route each
year. Immigrants such as goose, swans, ducks, ducks, changers, khutka,
and other swimmers are migrating. The southern areas of the Caspian
Sea, the most basic aquatic ecosystem unit in the Anzali Wetland, attract
many birds.
Another role that migratory birds play in controlling plant diseases
and pests in the wetland basins and ponds (Ashley, 2001). The European
aquatic birds encounter the bottom of the shallow basin, converted into
rice fields during the crop season, searching for plant seeds and lar-
vae and fighting against the most commonly known types of pests. The
cream is a rice stem borer, they start. The extinction of hundreds of
H. Sarkheil, H.R. Rezaei, B. Rayegani et al.
Fig. 1. Isometric map for Anzali Wetland (Study Area).
thousands of migratory birds, on the one hand, leads to savings in the
use of various fertilizers, making the soil more fertile and more fertile
(Bryan, 2005). Considering the numerous losses of using chemical fertil-
izers such as soil microorganisms and various contaminants, and other
environmental damage, we consider the importance of animal manure,
the migratory birds’ extinction, and the overwhelming benefits to Gi-
lan’s farmers. Regardless of the benefits of migratory birds, the Anzali
wetland guests for Gilan, as mentioned above, hunt and sell these birds
also have significant gains for fishers and residents around the wetland
(Fu et al., 2015; Banerjee et al., 2013).
2.4. Aquatic spawn sector
Aquatic animals such as crabs, frogs, leeches, worms, and the like
live in Anzali Wetland, which has unique economic and ecological value.
Large and small aquatic animals that grow in reproduction and grow in a
mature environment, even if they are not used directly to human beings,
play a significant role in the feeding cycle of aquatic animals that feed
on humans. Varieties of worms, Leaves, insects, and other small animals
in the wetland are feed by many fish and birds. Even in these small
animals, maintaining the wetland is also essential in the natural cycle
of the mooring environment’s ecosystem. So aquatic spawning sector
has a positive impact primarily on ecology and secondarily on society.
2.5. Wetland margin sector
The source of the Anzali water supply is the big and small rivers that
it pours on. Depending on the amount of water received, the water level
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Environmental Challenges 2 (2021) 100025
goes up and down and progresses in different seasons. As a result of
this process, the coastal wetland edges, especially in summer, are cov-
ered with rangeland plants with a greatly enhanced soil power. These
plants are mainly used to feed local livestock, and thus, livestock keep-
ing is possible along with other activities for rural households living in
the wetlands. As a result, this sector has positive social and economic
impacts.
2.6. Vegetarian resources sector
For many people, this house has long been based on the materials
obtained from the Anzali wetland. A variety of aquatic plants, called
the local term, cover urban and rural houses and enclosures around
rural houses and gardens using Types of straw. Plants that are on the
edge of the wetland are traditionally used in local handicrafts. Straw
and stem plants and their use in construction are also used to produce
handicrafts.
Varieties of existing plants have different applications for produc-
ing different products. Each herbal resource is used to make a specific
product. The production of goods such as mattresses, broom, linen, bas-
kets, and tablecloths have long been commonplace in the areas around
the wetland. Handicrafts are considered one of the sub-primes of rural
and urban households and their main occupations, from their significant
income sources.
As a result, the vegetarian resources sector positively impacts society
and economics and secondarily on ecology.
H. Sarkheil, H.R. Rezaei, B. Rayegani et al.
Fig. 2. Land use map of Anzali wetland and surrounding areas.
2.7. Shipping sector
Before motor vehicles became commonplace, water transportation in
the Anzali wetland was of local importance and overseas value. Hence, it
has positive social interests; however, shipping would negatively impact
relative pollutions’ ecological impacts.
2.8. The exploitation of sediments sector
The Anzali wetland basin is a sedimentation site of soft deposits that
have been laid down by the rivers on the wetland floor. Due to miner-
als sometimes brought to the wetland from remote areas, these deposits
are of great practical value. Strengthening agricultural land is fertilizer.
The wetland floor sediments are mainly composed of soft particles fer-
mented with fermentation elements and wet sandy sand in the wetland.
The sedimentary deposits deposited in the wetlands during the dredging
can be used for use on surrounding farms. If not directly related to eco-
nomic value, these deposits can indirectly raise agricultural products’
productivity in the surrounding land.
2.9. Tourism sector
Anzali wetland, with its numerous islands, has a beautiful landscape
that attracts nature enthusiasts. The presence of natural attractions in
the wetland, on the one hand, and the increasing need of urban people to
use nature, on the other hand, have created a vast dramatic gap between
the supply and demand of leisure in the wetland. Launching some facil-
ities and facilities related to the wetland’s leisure activities can provide
much employment for the wetlands residents. The wetland’s tourism
and leisure potential can be linked to its massive demand in Gilan and
Mazandaran’s coastal cities. It can be used to improve living conditions
and enhance livelihood’s economic environment. The massive presence
of passengers and non-indigenous people can seriously affect the flow
of economic wheels in transportation, accommodation, consumption of
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Environmental Challenges 2 (2021) 100025
goods and handicrafts, and other items. So far, the following recreational
activities have been implemented in the wetland:
1. Fishing with the family in a tranquil setting for all seasons with all
the recreational facilities in a perfectly spacious area alongside the
world’s largest tourist wetland.
2. Ski and Jet Ski training
3. Types of water sports, riding, and kayak, canoe in Anzali wetland
with family in a happy and family-friendly environment with all the
facilities.
4. Various boarding boats
5. Seafood restaurant along the wetland
3. Methods and theory
Environmental models are, in fact, the subset of definitive models.
However, statistics have an essential role in environmental science and
technology. However, statistical models are not very applicable in this
regard. In definitive models, all variables and parameters of functions
are independent of time and space. Independent variables are repre-
sented by the symbols x, y, z, and t. These four variables formulate most
of the models. Based on the next, the models can be; dimensionless, one-
dimensional, two-dimensional, or three-dimensional. Dimensional mod-
els have no dependence on location and only depend on time. Ecological
models are related to the population of biological species in a habitat,
most of which are in this model group. Since t is the only independent
variable, the analytic formula leads to ordinary differential equations.
These differential equations, which are dependent only on one variable,
are subjected to partial differential equations with at least two indepen-
dent variables. Models of one-dimensional stable states lead to ordinary
differential equations; transitional or unstable models lead to partial dif-
ferential equations. The partial derivatives differential toolbox is recom-
mended in MATLAB Software. In this modeling research, the following
nonlinear differential equation is designed by (Wagener, 2013):
H. Sarkheil, H.R. Rezaei, B. Rayegani et al.
Table 1
Annual Phosphorus Concentration in Anzali Wetland.
Total phosphorus (mg) Sampling area
0.12 Siah Keshim Area
0.062 The Western Region
0.256 Eastern Region
0.123 Central Area
0.184 Shipping Channel Area
0.112 The whole Anzali Wetland
Fig. 3. Dynamic Conditioning of the wetland (Series1: s, is the system state
variable; Series 2: the variable a is an ongoing economic activity).
Initially, significant parameters were analyzed for wetland dynamic
system analysis according to the wetland system model. These parame-
ters include the ongoing economic activity around the wetland and the
number of contaminants in the wetland.
The method of obtaining the amount of pollutant loading is done us-
ing field sampling techniques. Initially, sampling stations are identified
at the nearest possible point to get water in the rivers’ mouth into the
wetland, and sampling is carried out monthly at a depth of one meter
from the surface. Nutrient levels are measured according to standard
methods.
After inserting the parameters in the model, mathematical software
was used to plot the differential equation.
3.1. Mathematical model of wetland dynamics
The wetland has a dynamic system. Dynamic systems are defined
as a device of equations. These systems are time-dependent, due to the
discrete or continuous nature of the time, are called discrete and con-
tinuous dynamic systems (Uchida et al., 2007).
The dynamics of the wetland is modeled as a nonlinear differential
Eq. (1) (Wagener, 2013).
( )
𝑠2
𝑆 = 𝑎 − 𝑔(𝑠) = 𝑎 − 𝑏𝑠 − (1)
1+𝑠 2
Here s = s (t) is the system state variable; the variable a = a(t) is an
ongoing economic activity, agriculture. Parameter b indicates the con-
centration of water phosphorus and the introduction of sediments at
the bottom of the lake (Table 1). In this straightforward model, it is
assumed that sediments remain indefinitely. A more complex model is
that phosphorus returns from sediments to the lake, mostly if the lake’s
vegetation is lost. Finally, the nonlinear model illustrates the complex
feedback mechanism of the lake. This curve shows that steady states are
modes that tend to load sediment at a level. The most important fea-
ture of this answer is small response variation about small variations at
s level (Fig. 3).
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Environmental Challenges 2 (2021) 100025
In this chart, the value of b = 0.65 is considered, and the parameter
where the ongoing economic activity is agricultural activity. At first, in
this curve, the amount of phosphorus is such that the wetland can nat-
urally refine it and is not considered contamination. However, after a
time, if the amount of phosphorus entering the lake increases, little by
little pollution occurs. The graph begins with a gentle slope, and the wet-
land has reached a low level of pollution. The diagram has a straight line
in the vertical state (a = 13.13). The wetland regime is stable with low
pollution because it passes the critical mass of phosphorus and moves
towards high contamination levels. Here it is known that there is a catas-
trophic flip off the system. At the point (a = 0.16), the wetland regime
starts to move upward with a gentle slope, in which case the system
with a high degree of contamination has reached a state of equilibrium
(Antman, 2010).
4. Results and discussion
The irreversible mode model shows, even if the amount of pollution
is reduced to a = 0, the wetland will not be returned to a clean state.
The critical point is: In this type of model, it should be recognized that
the wetland has reached a high level of pollution or low pollution.
In these diagrams, the position of the middle branch of the unstable
steady states also provides information. If the system is such that the
point (a, s) lies at the bottom of the middle shaft, then the equilibrium
is steady-state with low pollution. If this point is placed above the shaft,
the equilibrium tends toward high contamination levels. Only one dis-
turbance is enough to remove the system from the sustainability in the
basin and transfer it to another stable state (Wagener, 2013).
According to the number of contaminants, we have two models for
the wetland’s dynamic conditions, especially the reversible wetland sys-
tem and the Dynamic characteristics of Anzali wetland.
4.1. Reversible Anzali wetland model
If the amount of pollutant material that is considered to be phos-
phorous here is equal to 0.25, the wetland system is reversible, and the
diagram is as follows (Fig. 4a).
As the deposition increases, the thick curve that is at the bottom be-
gins to move. Changes in phosphorus concentration initially increase a
minimal amount of sediment. However, there is a critical point a=acr
If we try to restore the system to the previous state by reducing the
low-infiltration sedimentation, we must move along the thick branch to
lower a. This system will remain in high contamination mode until it
remains noted that the deposition is significantly lower than the critical
deposition that is considered a marker for flipping the system into high
contamination. Increasing or decreasing foreign sediments leads to dif-
ferent responses. It should be kept in mind that only if the wetland is
cleared will the load from the critical state of the equilibrium with low
pollution be reduced (Wagener, 2013).
If the phosphorus is ≤0.5, 0<b, the system response is irreversible,
and the diagram is as follows (Fig. 4b):
4.2. Dynamic characteristics of Anzali wetland
A differential equation model is determined to describe the wetland’s
dynamic characteristics, which is the nonlinear differential equation of
partial derivatives because it has two independent variables (1).
To solving Eq. (1) in software, this double-order equation must be
converted to the third-order equation. The following operations should
then be done (2):
( ) ( )
a 1 + s2 − bs 1 + s2 + s2 = 0
a + as2 − bs − bs3 + s2 = 0
(2)
−bs3 + (1 + a)s2 − bs + a = 0
bs3 − (1 + a)s2 + bs − a = 0
To convert to the 3rd formula, we first multiply the formula in
(1 + s2). In the next step, we arrange the formula according to the
H. Sarkheil, H.R. Rezaei, B. Rayegani et al.
Fig. 4. (a) Wetlands, reversible (b = 0.52). Here, thick curves showing the stable condition of the wetland with high and low pollution, and the line curve indicate
unstable equilibrium. (b) Irreversible Case for the wetland (Wagener, 2013).
Fig. 5. Sampling and Regularization, Discretization, Combination, and integration of roots on the Anzali wetland system equation.
degree of power. Then multiply all the formulas in the (-) sign. Sub-
sequently, we obtain the independent parameters from Table 3 and
Fig. 4 and put them in the formula, and use the MATLAB V9.2 Software
(Sarkheil et al., 2020b) to solve this differential equation following the
instructions. The first step is to enter the value of b in the command
window: b = 0.112. After that, we enter the value a, and the intervals
in the graph in the software: a = 0: 0.01: 0.35:
Then we give the software a solution to solve the equation in s = 0.
s(1)= 0.0:
The command to solve the equation in s = 0.
To solve the equation, we first get the roots of the equation by the
root command. To do this, we define the polynomial coefficients in a
vector and then calculate the roots with the roots command. Since each
third-order equation has three roots, including the real part and the
imaginary part, for the imaginary part, the avatar statement is used (the
symbol for this command is in the software i, j). Then to find the find
command uses the roots that are equal to zero. In the Anzali wetland, to
discretize, regulate, and integrate the mentioned system dynamic equa-
tion roots, five steps have been defined as bellow (Fig. 5):
1. Wetland surface and a cell for system dynamic analysis
2. Volume element of Economic effect by Z direction
3. Integration of the roots of the equation by the root command of mul-
tiple aspects.
4. and finally, discretization.
Given that, if the phosphorus content is ≤0.5, 0<b, the system model
is irreversible to the pollutant, and hence the parameter b is 112/0.
However, this level has not yet reached a critical point. As a result,
6
Environmental Challenges 2 (2021) 100025
the amount of contaminants containing phosphorus in the wetland is
of particular importance. Anzali wetland has a severe trophic status to
phosphorus concentration.
If the system is such that the point (a, s) lies at the bottom of the
middle shaft, then the equilibrium is steady-state with low pollution.
However, if this point is placed above the branch, the equilibrium tends
toward high contamination levels.
After the equation is solved by the software, obtaining the value of
s is plotted using the (x, y) statement (Fig. 6 and 7).
As shown in Fig. 7, the blue dot indicates the amount of agricultural
consumption parameter around the wetland. The red dot shows the crit-
ical value and the flip point of the agricultural user parameter’s value.
According to the graph and the comparison of current and critical values
of agricultural use, it is clear that the wetland is intense in trophic but is
less resistant to this amount of phosphorus and agricultural use than the
critical mass’s present value is smaller. At first, the accelerated charts
increased and, after reaching the equilibrium with the rate of pollution,
the rate of increase in s was decreased.
4.3. Fuzzy dynamic characteristics of Anzali wetland
We proposed an empirical fuzzy solution (Zadeh, 1965; Zadeh, 1975;
Lee and Zadeh, 1996; Roos, 2004; Sarkheil et al., 2020b) for the dynamic
state of the Anzali wetland. It is composed of 2 input variables naming
a and b along with S as the output. Variable a consists of 5 triangular
membership functions naming: Very Low a, Low a, Medium a, High a,
and Very High a, in respect in the range from −0.05 to 0.4, as shown in
Fig. 8.
H. Sarkheil, H.R. Rezaei, B. Rayegani et al.
Fig. 6. The flowchart of the steps used to draw charts and commands used in
MATLAB V.9.2 software. (Dynamic response chart of Anzali wetland on agricul-
tural activity around the wetland).
Fig. 7. Dynamic model of Anzali wetland based on the math model of wetlands.
The blue dot indicates the amount of parameter a, and the red dot indicates the
critical value of agricultural use.
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Environmental Challenges 2 (2021) 100025
Variable b is composed of 3 triangular membership functions ranging
from 0 to 1, naming: Low b, Medium b, and High b in turn, as shown in
Fig. 9.
The output function S comprises three trapezoid membership func-
tions naming: Low S, Medium S, and High S, as shown in Fig. 10.
The fuzzy rules for practical fuzzy dynamic solution are listed as
below:
1. If a is Very Low, then S is Low S (weight=0.75)
2. If a is Medium, then S is Medium S (weight=0.75)
3. If a is Very High, then S is High S (weight=0.75)
4. If a is Low, then S is Low S (weight=0. 5)
5. If a is High, then S is High S (weight=0. 5)
6. If a is Low, then S is Medium S (weight=0.25)
7. If a is High, then S is Medium S (weight=0.25)
8. If b is Low, then S is High S (weight=0.3)
9. If b is Medium, then S is Medium S (weight=0.5)
10. If b is High, then S is Low S (weight=0.3)
As shown in Fig. 11, the blue curve is the fuzzy dynamic solution
trend-line, representing four critical “a” values (2 Descending and 2 As-
cending). The critical a close to 0.063 is the margin of stable and unsta-
ble conditions. There are critical values for values greater than 0.063,
with a positive range [0.063–0.35]. However, for values smaller than
0.063, the critical value is 0.017, which is very near 0 and brings about
instability. So for b = 0.52, acceptable a values should fall in the range
[0.063–0.28] where reversible and sustainable conditions are present.
This figure can be compared to Fig. 4, which represented stability and
instability for b = 0.52.
Fig. 12 demonstrates the General fuzzy inference reasoning for S’s
fuzzy empirical dynamic solution as a function of a and b. As well Fig.
13 illustrates the contours for fuzzy dynamic state solution for Anzali
wetland in generality.
Fig. 14 illustrates the fuzzy rule reasoning for S’s fuzzy dynamic so-
lution for the relative value of an equal to 0.02 and b equal to 0.112 (as
shown in Fig. 7). The final Fuzzy S value becomes 9.97, which is accept-
able compared to the mathematical value from Fig. 7 is about 9.1. Of
course, this amount is closer to critical S, close to 9.7 in Fig. 7. This phe-
nomenon can better be understood in Fig. 14, which shows the Fuzzy S
curve as a function of a value for amounts of fixed b = 0.112 (Fig. 15).
In comparison to mathematical answer with acr=0.02 and 0.05.
Another critical issue is the indication of the system’s model situation
and fined the wetland state’s reversibility and irreversibility. According
to comparing the amount of phosphorus precipitation with the pattern’s
value, since the sediment content is between 0.5 and 0, the wetland
system model is irreversible. The extension of passes from the critical
point does not restore the wetland to a steady-state and is destroyed.
The comparison with the wetland mode’s main pattern shows that the
Anzali wetland regime in 2018 was stable with high pollution. It tends
because it is above the precarious balance.
The Anzali Wetland Rivers carry the nutrient and sediment load, pol-
lutants from the catchment area, and the route’s shores to the wetland.
Caspian Sea salty water from the north penetrates this ecosystem as well.
The presence of plant and animal communities and human activities is
significant. These factors cause changes in the physical and chemical
quality of the Anzali wetland. Based on studies of the Anzali wetland,
it has been a significant atrophy change. In addition to the entry of nu-
trients from rivers, the extensive presence of Azolla aquatic plants due
to their high nitrogen fixation capacity has significantly increased nu-
trients in this wetland. Increasing vegetation and reducing the area of
Anzali wetland with satellite imagery from 1991 to 2001 also increased
the nutritional phenomenon. Field observations indicate that the process
of increasing aquatic vegetation in the Anzali wetland continues to be
exacerbated by the presence and expansion of many alien and invasive
species.
Azola was one of the most critical species with severe environmen-
tal impacts on many parts of the wetland. This plant’s overgrowth in
H. Sarkheil, H.R. Rezaei, B. Rayegani et al.
the Anzali wetland due to interference with human water use by hu-
mans and undesirable effects on Water quality and ecological problems
on other plant and animal species. Many biological and non-biological
agents have contributed to the current inappropriate condition in Anzali
wetland. It is necessary to take practical measures to reduce the entry
of nutrients from rivers and reduce various vegetation volume in differ-
ent parts of the Anzali wetland body. The Anzali wetland is protected
by the Environmental Protection Agency and is inadequate due to con-
tamination. In different seasons, its design varies, and less polluted and
infected parts can be identified. In recent years, the growing trend of
unconventional agricultural, urban, and unplanned industrial activities
has devastating effects on the environment that threatens the wetland’s
livelihood. In this context, the authorities’ work requires much work.
5. Conclusion
The phosphorus concentration is high in places where the water flow
velocity and direction are low, especially in the riverside’s edges. So,
upstream of the rivers flow into the Anzali wetland entrance due to the
accumulation of pollutants. Pollutants are increased at the end of the
rivers’ path and decreased in water flow, and the increase of mud and
sediment is suspended. Wetland increases the concentration of nutrients.
According to the results, the highest concentration of phosphorus in the
eastern part of the wetland is 0.25, and the lowest amount of phosphorus
in the western region is 0.6.
According to the model, Fig. 5 shows that the Anzali wetland has
reached a high level of pollution in 96. This chart shows that the wet-
land is in high contamination mode, which is high according to the
corresponding curve. The results showed that using the split theorem
technique can predict the wetland’s restraint by comparing the present
value and the critical value. According to research conducted, the wet-
land conditions will deteriorate in the not too distant future and become
a critical and uncontrollable crisis. Wetlands are subject to environmen-
tal pollution and destruction. According to an empirical fuzzy solution
for the dynamic state analysis of the Anzali wetland, it can be concluded
that the wetland is severely exposed to environmental pollution and de-
struction. Environmental conflicts are mixed with economic (agricul-
tural) issues. According to the wetland state diagram, the states of a
wetland depend on the number of economic activities and the loading
of pollutants, with small changes in a referring to small changes at the
s level.
It can be considered for a dynamic system wetland with environmen-
tal and economic priorities.
8
Environmental Challenges 2 (2021) 100025
Fig. 11. Empirical Fuzzy dynamic solution for Anzali S with
b = 0.52.
In general, a distinctive feature of the differences in benefits and
pollution problems is the qualitative duality in the probable outcome:
the wetland is fixed with a clean or contaminated state by a feedback
mechanism. On the other hand, the social choice always involves a qual-
itative aspect: the decision-maker must either decide against production
or protect the ecosystem. In this way, a social planner should evaluate
the benefits of agricultural activities that cause the wetland’s pollution
and increase the cost of reducing the wetland services. It is possible to
set the amount of sediment to the extent that the wetland system is re-
versible according to the model. In that case, it can be considered the
maximum social welfare of environmental and economic priorities.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to express their gratitude to the authorities
at the College of Environment supports. The authors declare that there
is no conflict of interest.
Supplementary materials
Supplementary material associated with this article can be found, in
the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.envc.2021.100025.
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