UAS Research

Projects and
Forecasts of sUAS
Activities
As of FY 2021

Office of Aviation Policy and Plans (APO)

Presented to: Transportation Research Board Annual Meetings

Presented by: Dipasis Bhadra and Michael Lukacs

Date: January xx, 2021

•Federal Aviation
•1
•Administration
www.faa.gov/uas
UAS Integration Strategy Drives APO research

•Federal Aviation
•2
•Administration
www.faa.gov/uas
 Overview of APO’s UAS Projects
• Surveys
– Phase 1 Questionnaire – Part 107 UAS
– Phase 2 Questionnaire – Recreational UAS
– Phase 3 Questionnaire – UAS Remote Pilots
– Phase 4 Survey – Combined Part 107 and Recreational UAS
• Markets
– UAS Market Analysis
• Safety
– Hotspot Analysis
– UAS Deviation Risk Analysis
• Forecasting
– sUAS Forecasts: Recreational, Commercial (Part 107) and Remote Pilot
– Estimation of Large UAS
– UAS Use by Public Safety Agencies
– UAS in Upper Airspace
• Integration of UAS in NAS
– UAS Impact on Traffic Trends and Safety
– eCommerce Delivery Network
– Advanced Air Mobility

•Federal Aviation
•3
•Administration
www.faa.gov/uas
 Model/Recreation Fliers* Registration
(Monthly) Trends and Locations

On average,
36,800
registration,
per month 18,000
12,000
registration, registration,
per month 8,300 8,900
registration, registration, per month
per month per month

‘*’: In the last reauthorization, Model/hobby fliers have been

replaced by “Recreational Fliers & Modeler Community-
Based Organizations”

Federal Aviation 4
Administration 4
January 15, 2021
Model/Recreation Registration: Cumulative
Totals by Quarters/Years

Federal Aviation 5
Administration 5
January 15, 2021
 Uncertainty Primarily on the Upside; Some
Downside Risks Remain – Last Year’s Forecast
Model/Recreation Fleet Scenarios
1,700,000
1,572,891 1,593,653
1,540,948
1,485,176
1,500,000 1,465,842 1,476,025
1,418,660 1,450,022
1,420,389

1,373,170 1,384,863 1,390,357 1,393,870

1,356,269
1,300,000 1,324,437
Total Fleet

1,100,000

900,000

700,000
Total Fleet: Base2020 Total Fleet: High2020 Total Fleet: Low2020

500,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Actual Forecast
Federal Aviation 6
Administration 6
January 15, 2021
 Comparison: 2020 vs. 2019
Model Fleet Forecast Comparison
1,700,000 (2020 vs. 2019)

1,465,842 1,476,025
1,500,000 1,450,022
1,420,389
1,383,326
1,324,437
1,369,148 1,379,738 1,385,388
1,300,000 1,349,752
1,314,096
1,245,179
Total Fleet

1,100,000

900,000

700,000 Total Fleet: Base2019

Total Fleet: Base2020

500,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Actual Forecast
Federal Aviation 7
Administration 7
January 15, 2021
 Non-Model Registration (Monthly) Trends
and Locations

13,900
registration,
per month
10,100
registration, 7,700
per month registration,
On average, 4,000 per month
registration, per month

Federal Aviation 8
Administration 8
January 15, 2021
Non-Model sUAS in the System: Cumulative
Totals by Quarters/Years

Federal Aviation 9
Administration 9
January 15, 2021
 Tracking on Both Up/Downside
Uncertainty: Last Year’s Forecast
1,300,000 Non-model UAS Fleet
1,197,021
1,200,000 1,135,845
1,100,000 1,031,013
1,000,000
900,000 829,662
828,337
800,000 786,003
731,234
700,000
Total Fleet

593,701 633,316
600,000
506,776 585,674 597,703
567,346
500,000 534,727
466,869
400,000
385,450
300,000
200,000
100,000 Total Fleet: Base 2020 Total Fleet: High2020 Total Fleet: Low2020

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Actual Forecast
Federal Aviation
Administration 10
January 15, 2021
 Comparison: 2020 vs. 2019
Non-Model Fleet Forecast Comparison
900,000 (2020 vs. 2019)
835,211

800,000 788,691 828,337

786,003
711,183
700,000 731,234

633,316
600,000
544,822
Total Fleet

500,000 506,776
400,455
400,000
385,450

300,000
277,386
Total Fleet: Base 2019
200,000
Total Fleet: Base 2020

100,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Actual Forecast
Federal Aviation 11
Administration 11
January 15, 2021
 Forecasts of Total sUAS in the System
Over Time
Comparison of Total sUAS Forecasts in the System
Millions
3 (2020 vs. 2019)

2.18 2.25
2.08 2.30
2.17 2.22
1.89
Total sUAS in the System

2 2.05
1.71
1.52

1.21

1 0.84

Base_2019
Base_2020

0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Federal Aviation 12
Administration 12
January 15, 2021
Remote Pilot Distribution in 2019

Distribution of Remote Pilots

31.36%

68.64%

Remote Pilot (Part 61 and Part 107 certificate)

Remote Pilot (Part 107 only)

Federal Aviation 13
Administration 13
January 15, 2021
 Remote Pilot Forecasts are derived from
(a) Base non-model forecast; and (b) assumption of UAS per RPA

Remote Pilot Forecast

400,000

350,000 348,537
330,725
307,680
300,000

266,479
250,000

213,235
200,000

162,185
150,000

100,000 2.38 UAS per RPA_Base 2020

50,000

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
14
Actual Forecast
Federal Aviation
Administration 14
January 15, 2021
Fleet of Larger UAS in the NAS

Forecast 15
Actual

Federal Aviation
Administration 15
January 15, 2021
APO’s Research Portfolio (1)

Federal Aviation 16
Administration 16
January 15, 2021
APO’s Research Portfolio (2)

Federal Aviation 17
Administration 17
January 15, 2021
APO’s Research Portfolio (3)

Federal Aviation 18
Administration 18
January 15, 2021
Upcoming FAA Annual Forecast: March, 2021
FAA Auditorium

PLEASE BOOKMARK THE WEBSITE:

HTTPS://WWW.FAA.GOV/DATA_RESEARCH/AVIATION/

•Federal Aviation
•19
•Administration
www.faa.gov/uas