Prediction of Water Pipe Asset Life Using Neural Networks

D. Achim1; F. Ghotb2; and K. J. McManus3

Abstract: This paper describes investigations into a development of a new application of neural networks 共NN兲 for prediction of pipeline
failure. Results show higher correlations with recorded data when compared with the two existing statistical models. The shifted time
power model gives results in total number of failures and the shifted time exponential model gives results in number of failures per year.
The database was large but neither complete and nor fully accurate. Factors influencing pipeline deterioration were missing from the
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by New York University on 04/17/15. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

database. Using the NN technique on this database produced models of pipeline failure, in terms of failures/km/year, that more closely
matched the number of failures of a particular asset recorded for the period.
DOI: 10.1061/共ASCE兲1076-0342共2007兲13:1共26兲
CE Database subject headings: Water pipelines; Neural networks; Statistics; Predictions.

Introduction
City West Water Ltd. 共CWW兲 is an Australian retail water com-
pany, located in Victoria, Australia, that provides high quality
drinking water and sewerage services to a population of over
600,000 in Melbourne’s central business district and the Western
suburbs. CWW experiences one of the highest structural failures
rates on water supply pipeline assets in Australia, so a main ele-
ment of their strategy is to improve the capability to predict fail-
ure. Traditional statistical models used at CWW have been based
on past failure histories and use regression analysis to predict
future failure rates. The models are based on age only and are
considered unsatisfactory, due to relatively low correlations be-
tween predicted and actual failure rates 共Righetti 2001兲.
The possibility of using neural networks 共NNs兲 was explored
with the aim of improving failure predictions. NNs are often de-
scribed as a network of interconnected processing units inspired
by the neurons in the brain and may also be viewed as a gener-
alization of any traditional statistical method such as nonlinear
regression or classification 共Ampazis et al. 1999兲. They can use
large databases and are tolerant of missing values and “noise.”
CWW Database
The information, in the CWW database, gathered for each pipe
breakage was: asset ID number, location 共using a geographic in-
formation system兲, material type, diameter, length, installation
1
Post Doctoral Fellow, School of Engineering and Science, Swinburne
Univ. of Technology, John St., Hawthorn, Victoria, Australia 3122.
2
Senior Lecturer, School of Mathematics, Swinburne Univ. of
Technology, John St., Hawthorn, Victoria, Australia 3122.
3
AM, Deputy Head, School of Engineering and Science, Swinburne
Univ. of Technology, John St., Hawthorn, Victoria, Australia 3122
共corresponding author兲. E-mail: kmcmanus@swin.edu.au
Note. Discussion open until August 1, 2007. Separate discussions
must be submitted for individual papers. To extend the closing date by
one month, a written request must be filed with the ASCE Managing
Editor. The manuscript for this paper was submitted for review and pos-
sible publication on December 14, 2004; approved on March 13, 2006.
This paper is part of the Journal of Infrastructure Systems, Vol. 13, No.
1, March 1, 2007. ©ASCE, ISSN 1076-0342/2007/1-26–30/$25.00.
date, failure dates, replacement dates, failure cost parameters, and
failure type. The current study uses 6 years of data extracted out
of the CWW database dealing with individual reticulation cast
iron pipes with diameters ⬍300 mm that experienced any failures
from 1997 to 2002, inclusive. The basic data set of pipelines that
registered failures between 1997 and 1999 is used here for initial
analysis. As more data became available this was extended with
another 3 years of registered failures between 2000 and 2002,
inclusive.
Significant data auditing was undertaken within CWW to as-
sess the accuracy of the records and eliminate unreliable records.
The description of failure type was inconsistent, sometimes miss-
ing, difficult to quantify, and hence was discarded.
Previous Modeling
Statistical models for predicting water pipe failure use historical
data of past failures to identify pipe breakage patterns. Details
about research carried out on structural deterioration of water
mains using the traditional statistical methods can be found in the
comprehensive review of Kleiner and Rajani 共2001兲. The predic-
tive models currently used by CWW are the shifted time power
model 共STPM兲 and the shifted time exponential model 共STEM兲
for individual assets 共Mavin 1996; Constantine et al. 1998兲, as
described by Righetti 共2001兲.
The models are based on age and failure histories and use a
shifted time parameter or scale parameter and a rate variable
parameter common to a set of pipelines. The STPM uses a rate
variable parameter from modeling undertaken by Constantine
et al. 共1998兲, using a set of data from the Melbourne suburbs of
Ringwood and Sunshine. The STPM model is represented by a
power function or an exponential function increasing over time or
pipe age.
The STPM equations are 共Constantine et al. 1998兲
H共t兲 = l␭共x兲␤ 共1兲
where H共t兲 = expected number of total failures at pipe age x;
l = pipe length; ␤ = 2.063= variable rate parameter; ␭ = shifted time
parameter 共or the scaling parameter兲; and x = asset age 共years兲.
The rate of failure per year at age x is given by the derivative
of this equation

26 / JOURNAL OF INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS © ASCE / MARCH 2007

J. Infrastruct. Syst. 2007.13:26-30.

 d共Ht兲
= ␤l␭共x兲␤−1 共2兲
dx
The equations can be applied to individual pipes. The model is
fitted to the cumulative sum of historical failures that occurred at
different times in the life of the pipe and solved for ␭, the shifted
time 共scaling兲 parameter. Once ␭ is known, the failure rate at any
future age can be calculated. With a nominated ␤ of close to two,
the prediction of failure rate becomes essentially linear, with ␭
adjusting the model for individual assets. However, in this case,
the model most likely is nonlinear and a linear model may not be
satisfactory.
Following the categorization of data by Mavin 共1996兲 and
Constantine et al. 共1998兲, STEMs have been derived for various
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by New York University on 04/17/15. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
time bands. The STEM requires division of the data into four
smaller groups of assets, by years of construction, and uses four
different fixed parameters for each group of assets. In this case the
predictive capability of the STEMs can significantly decrease.
The STEM is 共Constantine et al. 1998兲
Ht = l␭e␤x 共3兲
where Ht = expected number of total failures at pipe age x;
l = pipe length; ␤ = variable rate parameter; ␭ = scaling parameter
共or the shifted time parameter兲; and x = asset age 共years兲.
The rate of failure per year is given by the derivative of this
equation
dHt
= ␤l␭e␤x 共4兲
dx
The exponential model did not fit the data sets as well as the
power model, according to Constantine et al. 共1998兲. Therefore ␤
共the variable rate兲 could not be calculated for a common class of
assets and CWW needs to calculate both ␭ and ␤ variables in
order to be able to use this model. This can be done by calculating
and fitting the model for a class of assets to the cumulative sum of
historical failures of all pipes using the technique of minimizing
the sum of squares of the differences.
Constantine et al. 共1998兲 recommends that the rate variables
parameters in the STEM need to be calculated. Hence, STEM is
not a true predictive model. It is not clear what covariates 共e.g.,
soil type, bedding type, location, pipe diameter, pipe type, over-
head traffic, ground cover, climatic data, presence of groundwater,
and internal pressure兲 are included in the STEM model, let alone
their significance.
Regression analysis, as described by Righetti 共2001兲, was
applied to analyze the strength of the CWW models. The rate
variable parameter 共for STPM兲 or parameters 共for STEM兲 were
supplied by Righetti. The shifted time parameter was fitted for
both models, using the first 3 years of data 1997–1999 and then
predictions were made for the next 3 years 2000–2002 and com-
pared with observed failures.
The STPM model gives results in total number of failures and
the STEM gives results in number of failures per year. However,
for modeling purposes, a better unit is number of failures/km/
year, since each asset has a different length. Taking this unit as a
basis for comparison between the models, it was found that
STPM gives a moderately high coefficient of determination 共r2兲,
equal to 0.437, and STEM gives a very low r2, equal to 0.097,
between the predicted and the observed value as illustrated in
Fig. 1.
The main criticism of the statistical models, as reported by
Righetti 共2001兲, is that “whilst failures generally increase with
pipe age, there is wide variation in performance of individual
JOURNAL OF INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS © ASCE / MARCH 2007 / 27
J. Infrastruct. Syst. 2007.13:26-30.
Fig. 1. Prediction using CWW statistical models: 共a兲 shifted time
power model; 共b兲 shifted time exponential model
assets,” where “links appear to exist with soil type and weather
fluctuations.” The statistical models used by CWW assumed no
end point in time, and the effect of the repairs is being ignored.
Further development of these models by incorporating the effects
of soil and weather and repairs may improve their performance.
Description of Neural Networks Model
The mathematics of NNs are reviewed by Anderson 共1995兲,
Bishop 共1996兲, Ripley 共1996兲, Gurney 共1997兲, and Beale and
Jackson 共1990兲. NNs are adaptive and can represent any complex
nonlinear relationships between the input and the output vari-
ables. They are particularly good for modeling complex problems
and can deal with relative ease with the combined effects of a
large number of input variables. The multilayer perceptron 共MLP兲
is the most commonly used neural network model. The MLP has
a number of nodes 共neurons兲 or units organized in input and out-
put layers as well as a number of hidden layers.
A trainable nonzero bias term is used in each to account for
external influences. The NNs are flexible and “learn” through an
iterative process of adjusting their weights and biases 共Ampazis
et al. 1999兲. The most common learning is supervised learning,
which provides a response value for every set of input values and
requires a known 共input兲 target value that the response is trying to
“guess.” The difference between the response and the actual tar-
get gives the error value. The network weights are adjusted itera-
tively in accordance with the error value, in order to minimize the
error.
Application of Neural Network Analysis
The neural network topology is represented by a number of nodes
organized in input, hidden, and output layers. The NN architec-
ture of an MLP with an input layer with six nodes, two hidden
layers with eight nodes each, and an output layer with one node,
is represented in Fig. 2.
The algorithm used for error minimization is a conjugate gra-
dient. The error function to be minimized through training is the
mean square error. The algorithm finds the nearest local minimum
in a mean square error for any given set of initial connection
values. The network was initialized a number of times with ran-
dom weights to find a good optimum. The sigmoid logistic acti-
vation function for neurons was found through trial and error.
In order to deal with nonlinearity and hence possible overfit-
ting, a number of techniques have been used such as cross vali-
dation, bootstrapping, and random sampling in order to estimate
the generalization error. Cross validation is applied in Neural con-
 and the pair of geographical coordinates AMG X and AMG Y.
The neural network model developed is a predictive model of
structural failure of cast iron pipelines. The predicted value is the
number of failures/kilometer/ year for a pipeline asset denoted by
a particular ID in the CWW’s database.

Software

SPSS neural connection software for neural networks 共version

2.1兲 was used in this work for the development of the NN. SPSS,
Version 13.0 was employed for all the statistical analysis, and
Fig. 2. Representation of MLP NN topology Microsoft Access was engaged for the database query.
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by New York University on 04/17/15. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

nection 共1998兲 by using an incremental learning technique where

the MLP is trained in four stages using incrementally larger
datasets with the best network being passed on to the next stage
for training. Bootstrapping consists of training the network using
a split dataset where 80% of the data were used for training; 10%
of the data were used for validation; and another set of 10% of
data not previously seen by the network were used for testing the
network. The second data set, called “Run data,” represents the
same pipe population with the observed failure rates over the next
3 subsequent years 2000–2002. The 2000–2002 data set as an
independent test set was used to provide a basis for comparison of
NN results with the statistical models results. The correlation co-
efficient between the predicted and the observed failure rate over
the subsequent next 3 years was used for the purpose of compar-
ing the strength of the statistical models versus the strength of the
NN models.
A number of networks have been trained to determine the
optimal network topology including the optimal number of inputs.
The 1997–1999 records were randomly divided into training, vali-
dation, and test datasets to create an even distribution of cases
that represent, as far as possible, the entire range of the problem.
It was found that predictions improved if age, as well as year
of construction, were included as an input. The predictions were
significantly worse, if length was excluded as an input variable.
The number of nodes and hidden layers were varied until an
optimal network was achieved for which the validation error
began to increase, while the correlation coefficient between the
predicted and the observed began to decrease with further
changes to the network.
For each pipe type, six input variables were included for
analysis. These were diameter, year of construction, age, length
Data Processing
Together with the network configuration, the selection of
variables and scaling of inputs needed special consideration. The
selected variables were chosen from those used by the water com-
pany, as easily collected, quantifiable, and unambiguous. The
Yes/No variables were coded as one and zero, respectively, for
CICL and CI. However, they were then discarded because further
examination of the data showed that type was a stratification cri-
teria rather than a variable. All the variables were included in the
NN model and no data was discarded or filtered. It was found that
any division of data or exclusion of a variable diminished the
predictive capability of the NN.
Two datasets; one for CICL pipes and one for CI pipes, were
processed. The data set for the older CI pipes was very small 共326
cases兲 and all the pipes were the same size diameter and hence
diameter was excluded as an input. The NN model predictions are
likely to be less reliable than the ones for CICL pipes 共1,280
cases兲 because less data are available for the network to “learn.”
The training process was improved by standardizing the data.
However the output represents the true value of the predicted
number of failures/km/year.
The free parameters estimated from the training set were ap-
plied to the validation set, producing the validation error. The test
set, not involved in the training process, was used to test the
network by comparing the NN model predictions with the target.
A second dataset, called the “run data,” was used to “test” the NN
regression capability and compare the NN model prediction with
the target.

Table 1. Coefficients of Determination 共r2兲 for Predicted versus Observed Values from NN Experiments and Statistical Model
Hidden
Experiment Model layers Nodes Variable Pipe type Data set r2
1. NN 2 9 6 CICLa Test97-99 0.679
— 2 9 6 CICL Run00-02 0.5423
2. NN 2 9 5 CIb Test97-99 0.4825
— 2 9 5 CI Run00-02 0.3626
3. STPM — — — CICL Run00-02 0.4525
STPM — — — CI Run00-02 0.3728
4. STEM — — — CICL Run00-02 0.0946
STEM — — — CI Run00-02 0.1234
a
CICL 共cast iron cement lined兲: spun gray cast iron pipe with factory cement lining.
b
CI 共gray cast iron兲: horizontally cast, unlined pipe 共possibly cement lined in situ兲.

28 / JOURNAL OF INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS © ASCE / MARCH 2007

J. Infrastruct. Syst. 2007.13:26-30.

 Fig. 3. NN model prediction versus target test sample 1997–1999 for
CICL pipes; 共a兲 r2 for predicted versus observed failures; 共b兲 residual
plot
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by New York University on 04/17/15. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
Results and Discussion
Outcomes from the NN and statistical models are summarized
in Table 1. There are many measures to assess the performance
of neural networks and there are many issues when trying to
compare the performance of different models such as NN versus
statistical models 共Marzban and Witt 2001兲. However, for the
evaluation of performance, scatter plots of predicted versus the
target and residual plots of error versus target were examined. In
Table 1, the calculated coefficients of determination, r2, can be
compared for the same pipe type with the corresponding value
from the statistical models for the Run data set 2000–2002.
The overall best prediction, with the run dataset, was achieved
by the NN in experiment Number 1, after pipe type was consid-
ered a stratification criterion and eliminated from the data set as a
variable. The r2 of 0.5423 compares with the r2 of 0.4525 for the
STPM and 0.0946 for the STEM. That shows an improvement
of 19% in terms of r2 when compared with the STPM model
prediction. As expected, the network performance is lower for
the run sample r2 = 0.5423 as compared with the test sample
r2 = 0.679.
Figs. 3共a兲 and 4共a兲 show the scatter plots of the predicted NN
versus observed target output for the CICL pipes from the test set
and run set, respectively, for Experiment 2 共Table 1兲. The diago-
nal line on the scatter plot represents the line of least-square fit
through the data. The coefficient of determination 共r2 = 0.68兲 of
the network output versus the observed data is higher for the test
set, which is part of the 1997–1999 data set. The coefficient of
determination 共r2 = 0.5423兲 is still moderately high when regres-
sion analysis is applied using the run data 共i.e., the next 3 years of
data兲 showing that the network has generalized well and is retain-
ing the patterns.
The r2 coefficients of determination in Experiment 1 共Table 1兲
can be further compared with coefficients of determination from
Fig. 4. NN regression model prediction versus target run sample
2000–2002 for CICL
JOURNAL OF INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS © ASCE / MARCH 2007 / 29
J. Infrastruct. Syst. 2007.13:26-30.
Fig. 5. Residuals as function of age
other pipe failure research using statistical models. For example,
Clark et al. 共1982兲 reported r2 equal to 0.23 and 0.47 using time-
linear and exponential expressions. Kettler and Goulter 共1985兲
reported moderate r2 of 0.563 and 0.103 using time-linear expres-
sions for asbestos cement and cast iron pipes. Andreou 共1997兲
reported r2 equal to 0.34 共applying a cutoff point of three failures兲
and 0.46 共applying a cutoff point of six failures兲 using an expo-
nential expression for early stages and a Poisson distribution for
later stages in the life of the pipe.
In addition to scatter plots, residual plots Figs. 3共b兲 and 4共b兲
provide a useful means for assessing performance. Ideally, plots
should show a random pattern without a clear line or nonlinear
pattern. The fanning out pattern, in Figs. 3共a兲 and 4共a兲 suggests
that the NN model may be less accurate for larger values of the
predicted failures/km/year 共Marzban and Witt 2001兲. They are
also an indication that the model outputs have a nonlinear rela-
tionship with the observations. There are many corrections to the
residuals accounting for nonlinearity. However these are not fur-
ther discussed in this paper. Plots of residuals versus other pre-
dictor variables can indicate that other additional variables might
improve the model 共Sain 2005兲.
More importantly, residual plots versus each input variable
show a random pattern. This is illustrated with respect to age in
Fig. 5. This suggests that additional factors related to lengths,
such as incorporating corrosion rates, may improve the results.
However such data are not currently available.
Conclusions and Further Work
From the comparison of performance of the NN model with the
current statistical models in use at CWW, the NN outperforms the
statistical models, where databases are relatively large and noisy.
Analysis of the NN model also suggests that improvement may be
found in incorporating other factors that influence asset perfor-
mance, not taken into account in this analysis. For example, many
other factors have a potential impact on the deterioration of pipe-
lines, such as construction methods 共trenchless versus open cut兲,
contractors experience, soil type, overburden, and existing traffic.
At present such data are not currently available in the CWW
database, but will be examined in future work.
The relative ease of involving as many variables as possible in
the model brings further scope to the NN analysis. Another pos-
sible approach, as more data are being collected, is to use NN to
explore the time aspect of pipe deterioration by including time
dependent factors in the analysis, such as climatic factors, 共i.e.,
seasonal and El-Niño effects兲 and corrosion.
The application of NN to model pipeline failures has the
potential to bring significant cost savings in terms of asset main-
tenance and system performance reliability. The technique has
 further potential to evaluate the relative importance of various
parameters prior to the formulation of a deterministic model.
Acknowledgments
The writers acknowledge the support provided by the Australian
Research Council and City West Water for this work. They are
also grateful to George Ruta and Julian Beasley from City West
Water Ltd. and Professor Tim Hendtlass of Swinburne University
of Technology.
References
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by New York University on 04/17/15. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
Ampazis, N., Perantonis, S. J., and Taylor, J. G. 共1999兲. “Dynamics of
multi-layer networks in the vicinity of temporary minima,” Neural
Networks, 12, 43–58.
Anderson, A. 共1995兲. An introduction to neural networks, MIT Press,
Cambridge, Mass.
Beale, R., and Jackson, T. 共1990兲. Neural computing.
Bishop, C. M. 共1996兲. Neural networks for pattern recognition, Claren-
don, Oxford, U.K.
Clark, R. M., Stafford, C. L., and Goodrich, J. A. 共1982兲. “Water distri-
bution systems: A spatial and cost evaluation,” J. Water Resour. Plng.
30 / JOURNAL OF INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS © ASCE / MARCH 2007
J. Infrastruct. Syst. 2007.13:26-30.
and Mgmt. Div., 108共3兲, 243–256.
Constantine, G., Miller, R., and Darroch, J. 共1998兲. “Prediction of pipe-
line failures from incomplete data,” Research Rep. No. 145, Urban
Water Research Association of Australia, Australia.
Gurney, K. 共1997兲. An introduction to neural networks, UCL, London.
Kettler, A. J., and Goutler, I. C. 共1985兲. “An analysis of pipe breakage
in urban water distribution networks,” Can. J. Civ. Eng., 12共2兲,
286–293.
Kleiner, Y., and Rajani, B. B. 共2001兲. “Comprehensive review of struc-
tural deterioration of water mains: Statistical models.” Urban Water,
3共3兲, 131–150.
Marzban, C., and Witt, A. 共2001兲. “A Bayesian neural network for severe
hail size prediction,” Weather Forecast., 16共5兲, 600–610.
Mavin, K. 共1996兲. Predicting the Failure Performance of Individual
Water Mains Research Rep. No. 114, Urban Water Research Associa-
tion of Australia, Melbourne, Australia.
Neural connection, version 2.1, user’s manual. 共1998兲. Recognition Sys-
tems Ltd.
Righetti, B. 共2001兲. “Cast iron condition assessment study.” City West
Water, Internal Rep., City West Water Pty Ltd, Melbourne, Australia.
Ripley, B. D. 共1996兲. Pattern recognition and neural networks, Cam-
bridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
Sain, S. 共2005兲. “MATH 4820/5320: Introduction to mathematical statis-
tics: Simple linear regression II.” 具http://math.cudenver.edu/~ssain/
stat/lec18.pdf典 共October 19, 2005兲.