“Analysis on Population”

INTRODUCTION:
We examine the time series data from 1998 to 2017. For the test analysis unit root test (augmented
dickey fuller test) ADF.Pakistan population 191.71 million in 2015 & 188 million in 2014. Population
decreased in 2014 by 1.95 % and in 2015 1.92 %.

High population growth means high labor supply for the production of large market for good and
services. Pakistan is 6th highest population in world. Population of Pakistan will spread in 2020 by 210.13
million. In 1950 to 1985 population growth at an average of 3 per annum, then decline at an average 2.6
per annum in 1986 to 2000.In 2010 Pakistan has young age structure with a median of 21.7 years. 40%
of population is (0-14) years old from 1950 to 2000.and 36% in 2010.

LITRATURE REVIEW:
Velasco et al (2016) examined the relationship between population growth and economic growth in case
of Mexico. Study used the Counteraction analysis and in addition granger causality test also to analyze
the result. Study used the time series data from 1960 to 2014. In the short run, result shows that
economic growth has a negative effect on population growth and long run, result shows that population
has a positive effect on per capita GDP and that per capita GDP positively affects population.

Ali et al (2013) examined the relationship between impacts of population growth on economic growth in
Pakistan. Study claims that population growth have positive impact on economic growth. Study analyzed
that high number of labor force stimulate the economic growth. Study used the thirty four year annually
data. Study used the ARDL co-integration technique. He used real gross domestic product as a
dependent variable and independent variable were population growth, unemployment rate, human
resource development and trade openness. At the end study analyzed that population growth is not a
real problem, problem of Pakistan is unemployment and development policy that are not effective.
Study suggested that government of Pakistan should take into account the problem and unemployment
and development policy HRD. When once the country has got tremendous growth, reduced
unemployment and developed human capital the population growth will be correct of itself.
RESEARCH OBJECTIVE:
I went to examine the relationship between the education and population of Pakistan between the
two census conducted by Pakistan in 1998 to 2017.

METHODOLOGY:
Regression Equation.

Y = β + βx1 + βx2 + βx3

AUGMENTED DICKEY FULLER TEST:

Examine the impact of population 1998 on population 2017.

(ADF) is used to determine the population, growth, literacy between 1998 to 2017 years.

For UNIT ROOT test at 1st difference the data is stationary or not.

GRAPH to examine the intercept and trend.

HYPOTHESIS TESTING:

STEP NO 1:

HO: The data contain unit root test.

The data is non-stationary.

H1: The data contain unit root test.

The data is stationary

STEP NO 2:

Level of significance (α) =0.05

STEP NO 3:

Rejection method;

Reject null hypothesis if probability value < α.

STEP NO 4:
 CALCULATION:

      t-Statistic   Prob.*
         
         
-
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 1.69928  0.4184
5
-
Test critical values: 1% level   3.75294  
6
-
  5% level   2.99806  
4
-
  10% level   2.63875  
2
         
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.  
         
         
-
POPULATION_2017(-1) -2.387946 1.405265 1.69928 0.104
5
1.90222
C 3898.308 2049.339 0.0709
7
         
         
R-squared 0.120882     Mean dependent var 593.3913

Adjusted R-squared 0.079019     S.D. dependent var 3227.847

S.E. of regression 3097.693     Akaike info criterion 18.99764

Sum squared resid 2.02E+08     Schwarz criterion 19.09638

Log likelihood -216.4729     Hannan-Quinn criter. 19.02248

F-statistic 2.887569     Durbin-Watson stat 1.194724

Prob(F-statistic) 0.104033      
 population 2017
20,000

16,000

12,000

8,000

4,000

STEP NO 5:

INTERPRETATION:

We concluded that reject the null hypothesis and observed that after applying the unit root test at level
the data is in stationary state..