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Effect of Roadside Features on

Single-Vehicle Roadway Departure


Crashes on Rural Two-Lane Roads
Yichuan Peng, Srinivas Reddy Geedipally, and Dominique Lord

One of the most important tasks in traffic safety is investigating the rela- about 60% of all fatalities. Of these crashes, about 17,000 were esti-
tionship between motor vehicle crashes and the geometric characteris- mated to have been SVROR crashes. About 80% of ROR fatalities
tics of roadways. A large body of previous work provides meaningful occurred on rural roadways, with about 90% of these occurring on
results on the impact of geometric design on crash frequency. However, two-lane highways alone. Moreover, recent statistics show that the
little attention has been paid to the relationship between roadway depar- percentage of fatal ROR crashes has been steadily increasing (11).
ture crashes and relevant roadside features such as lateral clearance, The societal costs associated with ROR crashes are estimated to be
side slope condition, and driveway density. The lack of roadside data 2.53 times more than those associated with other accidents (12). The
for use in estimating rigorous statistical models has been a major obsta- social costs amount to more than $1 trillion per year.
cle to roadside safety research for many years. This study investigated Crashes that involve a vehicle leaving the traveled way have also
the relationship between single-vehicle roadway departure crashes and been the subject of headlines outside the United States. According
roadside features. Two types of models were developed: a negative bino- to World Health Organization statistics, about 1.2 million people
mial model of crash frequency and a multinomial logit model of crash die annually worldwide as a result of all kinds of road accidents,
severity. The study used field data collected in four districts in Texas. The and the number is expected to rise by 67% by the year 2020 (13).
results showed that shoulder width, lateral clearance, and side slope con- According to the Transport Research Laboratory, between 20 and
dition had a significant effect on roadway departure crashes. Crash fre- 50 million people are seriously injured in traffic crashes each year
quency and severity increased when lateral clearance or shoulder width (14). Another study that summarized the characteristics of rural
decreased and when the side slope condition became worse. Driveway road safety around the world reported that in the member countries
density was not found to have a significant influence on crash frequency of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development,
or severity. about 75,000 people are killed every year on rural roads; the social
costs attributed to these crashes are approximately $120 billion per
year (15). At the international level, 75% of all crashes happen on
One of the most important tasks in traffic safety is investigating the
rural roads. Three main crash types are defined: SV crash, head-on
relationship between motor vehicle crashes and the geometric char-
collision, and collision at intersections. SV crashes constitute 35%
acteristics of roadways. A large body of previous work has provided
or more of all fatal rural road crashes.
meaningful results on the impact of geometric design on crash fre-
These statistics on roadside-related traffic crashes indicate the
quency (1–7). However, studies of some factors related to roadside
need for research on cost-effective countermeasures that will reduce
features that influence the number and severity of roadway departure,
the frequency and severity of such crashes. Furthermore, less atten-
or run-off-the-road (ROR), crashes have been less successful. ROR
crashes have been identified as an important leading cause of traffic tion has been paid to identifying the relationship between ROR crash
fatalities on highways and consequently as a significant traffic safety frequency and key roadside features. Neuman et al. summarized the
problem. In 1999, Neuman et al. used data from the Fatality Analysis effects of roadside features on the severity of ROR crashes (8). They
Reporting System to show that nearly 39% of all fatal crashes on all noted that objects located near the roadside may harm errant drivers
types of roads were classified as single-vehicle (SV) ROR crashes more seriously than objects located farther away (as expected), espe-
(8). Torbic et al. reported a slightly lower value in their study of the cially on high-speed roads. In another study, Zegeer et al. concluded
safety effects of rumble strips (9). According to FHWA, more than that flattening a side slope from 1:2 to 1:7 or more could reduce ROR
25,000 people were killed in 2005 because drivers left their lane crashes by about 27% (16). These authors pointed out that the bene-
and either crashed with an oncoming vehicle, rolled over, or hit an fits, although still positive, decreased as the change in the slide slope
object located along the highway (10). These crashes accounted for became smaller (e.g., 1:5 to 1:7). Other studies on roadway depar-
ture crashes have investigated causative factors such as pavement
edge drop-off, horizontal curves and grades, pavement surface, and
Y. Peng and D. Lord, Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M Univer-
sity, 3136 TAMU, College Station, TX 77843-3136. S. R. Geedipally, Texas A&M human factors. Some studies have focused on how roadside features
Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System, 3136 TAMU, College such as roadway guardrail systems (17) and utility poles (18) affect
Station, TX 77843-3136. Corresponding author: Y. Peng, pycgcx@tamu.edu. motor vehicle crashes. Some relationships between the frequency of
crashes and geometric design can be found in the Highway Safety
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board,
No. 2309, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington,
Manual (19).
D.C., 2012, pp. 21–29. The lack of roadside data for estimating rigorous statistical mod-
DOI: 10.3141/2309-03 els has been a major obstacle for roadside safety research for many

21
22 Transportation Research Record 2309

years and has made it difficult to analyze SVROR crashes and their y = number of years of crash data,
severity. This paper makes use of field data collected on 501 rural Xil = series of covariates (l) (e.g., shoulder width,
two-lane roadway segments in four districts in Texas to investigate lateral clearance) for site i,
the relationship of SVROR crash frequency and severity to roadside n = number of covariates, and,
features such as clear zone distance and side slope conditions. Neg- β1, β2, . . . , βn = estimated coefficients.
ative binomial and multinomial logit models were used to estimate
crash frequency and severity, respectively. The next section presents
the methodology used in this study. Multinomial Logit Model

In this study, the multinomial logit model was used to identify dif-
Methodology ferences in factors likely to affect the severity of SVROR crash
injuries. An individual crash severity among the given severities
This section describes the methodology and the characteristics was considered to be predicted if the crash severity likelihood func-
related to the negative binomial and multinomial logit models used tion was the maximum for that particular severity. Each crash sever-
in this study. ity likelihood function, which is a dimensionless measure of the
crash likelihood, was considered to have a deterministic component
and an error–random component. The deterministic part is assumed
Negative Binomial Model to contain variables that can be measured; the random part corre-
sponds to the unaccounted factors that affect injury severity. The
Despite its documented limitations (20), the Poisson-gamma, or neg- deterministic part of the crash severity likelihood was designated
ative binomial, model is the most common type of model used by as a linear function of the driver, roadway, vehicle, and weather
transportation safety analysts. This model is preferred over other characteristics, as shown in Equation 4:
mixed Poisson models since the gamma distribution is the conju-
gate of the Poisson distribution. The Poisson-gamma model has K
Vij = ASC j + ∑ α kj X ki (4 )
the following model structure (21): the number of crashes (Yit) for a k =0
particular site i and time period t when the conditional on its mean
(µit) is Poisson (Po) distributed and independent over all sites and where
time periods:
Vij = systematic component of crash severity likelihood for
Yit µ it ∼ Po ( µ it ) i = 1, 2, . . . , I and t = 1, 2, . . . , T (1) segment i and crash severity j,
ASCj = alternative specific constant for crash severity j,
The mean of the Poisson distribution is structured as αkj = coefficient (to be estimated) for crash severity j and
variable k (k = 1, . . . , K), and
µ it = f ( X ; β ) exp ( eit ) (2 ) Xki = independent variable k for observation i.
The logit model was derived with the assumption that the error com-
where ponents were extreme value (or Gumbel) distributed. The probability
f(.) = function of the covariates (X), of a discrete event (severity of crash) is given by Equation 5 (22):
β = vector of unknown coefficients, and Vij
eit = model error independent of all the covariates. e
Pij = J
(5)
It is usually assumed that exp(eit) is independent and gamma ∑e Vij

distributed with a mean equal to 1 and a variance δ for all i: j =1

exp ( eit ) = gamma (1 δ , 1 δ ) where Pij is the probability of the occurrence of crash severity j
for segment i, and J is the total number of crash severities to be
modeled.
where δ is the dispersion parameter and the variance function is
Although this assumption simplifies the probability equation, it
Var(Yit) = µit + δµit2.
also adds the independence from irrelevant alternatives property
An important characteristic associated with the development of
in the multinomial logit model. The independence from irrelevant
statistical relationships is the choice of the functional form linking
alternatives property of the multinomial logit model restricts the
crashes to the covariates. For this work, the functional form was as
ratio of probabilities for any pair of crash severities to be indepen-
follows:
dent of the existence and characteristics of other crash severities in
n
the set of severities considered in the model. This restriction implies
β1
∑X β il l
that the introduction of a new type of crash severity in the set will
µ i = β 0 × Li × Fi × y × e l = 2 (3)
affect all other severities proportionately.
Although the independence from irrelevant alternatives property
where
is a widely acknowledged limitation of the multinomial logit model
µi = estimated number of crashes per year for site i, (23), it is still preferred because it is relatively easy to calculate and
Fi = vehicles per day (vpd) [average daily traffic implement. The maximum likelihood method is most commonly used
(ADT)] for segment i, for estimating parameters and is readily available in many software
Li = length of segment i (mi), programs.
Peng, Geedipally, and Lord 23

Data Collection ment of Transportation (DOT). The procedure for collecting the
data primarily involved a crew of three team members driving an
This section first briefly explains the data collection activities under- instrumented vehicle with a Dewetron data-collection system. This
taken to assemble a database suitable for developing regression mod- system includes unique synch clock technology that combines data
els for SVROR crashes. The summary statistics of the data used for from many sources into one synchronized data file, which facili-
model development are then reported. tates data analysis and processing. As the vehicle traveled through
the site, Global Positioning System (GPS) data were recorded and
synchronized with text inputs that described parts of the road, such
Roadside Data as lateral clearances and location of intersections. A lidar gun was
used to measure distances from the roadside to nearby obstructions
Although a wide variety of site characteristics and information and fixed objects, thereby providing a record of lateral clearance.
such as ADT and shoulder width were compiled through in-office The distance measured included the shoulder, so as to be consis-
efforts, it was necessary to visit each site to determine and record tent with AASHTO’s definition of roadside clearance. The video
specific roadside features. The characteristics of emphasis were signal recorded by camera is shown in the middle of the screen,
driveway density, side slope rating, and lateral clearance, which and the GPS signal is shown at the bottom right corner (Figure 1).
were not included in the data set provided by the Texas Depart- The lateral clearance and roadside condition of a certain point in a

FIGURE 1   Dewetron screen.


24 Transportation Research Record 2309

road segment can be investigated by combining these three kinds ment. The final database contains 245.3 mi of roadway divided into
of data. 501 road sections. Only segments that were more than 0.1 mi in
The side slope rating is a way to estimate the hazard that the side length were considered in the analysis. The average side slope rating
slope area poses to a driver who runs off the road. Side slope ratings was 2.7 and the average lateral clearance was 24.5 ft.
were assigned on a five-point scale in this study, as follows:

1. Little grade, if any; generous area to correct for vehicles leaving Modeling Results
the traveled way;
2. Some rise or fall, with low grade, but still highly correctible at Negative Binomial Regression
highway speeds;
3. Definite rise or fall, with moderate grade (e.g., drainage ditch); Three separate negative binomial models were estimated—all seg-
probably not correctible at moderate to high speeds; good possibility ments (501 horizontal curve plus tangent segments), horizontal curves
that no injury will occur; only (195 segments), and tangent segments only (306 segments)—to
4. Definite rise or fall, with high grade and possible guardrail, sim- better investigate the relationship between SVROR crash frequency
ilar to a bridge over a shallow creek; not correctible and high chance and roadside features. The latter two models were used to examine
of nonincapacitating injury at highway speed; and whether the effects of roadside features on crash occurrence are
5. High grade and significant elevation change, such as a cut into different for horizontal curves as compared with tangent segments.
a cliff; not correctible and high chance of fatal or incapacitating
Table 2 shows the final results for the three models. The results
injury at highway speed.
indicate that SVROR crash frequency is significantly influenced by
ADT, shoulder width, lateral clearance, and side slope rating. These
Crash Data variables are significant at the 5% level. Driveway density was not
found to be a significant influence in SVROR crashes. The positive
The crash data analyzed in this paper were extracted from the Texas coefficients for the ADT and side slope rating variables indicate that
DOT’s Crash Records Information System, which is maintained by as those values increased, the number of crashes also increased. The
its Traffic Operations Division. The crashes available in this database negative values for the shoulder width and lateral clearance vari-
covered the period from 2003 to 2008. Crash data were collected for ables indicate that the number of crashes decreased as these variables
the following severity levels: increased, which is a desirable finding.
K = fatal; Annual SVROR crash frequency can be estimated with Equa-
A = Injury Type A, or incapacitating injury; tions 7 through 8. The variables used in Equations 7 through 8 are
B = Injury Type B, or nonincapacitating injury; defined as follows:
C = Injury Type C, or possible injury; and µ = estimated number of crashes per mile,
O = property damage only (PDO).
SW = shoulder width (ft),
As it is widely recognized that PDO crash counts vary widely on a SS = side slope rating, and
regional basis because of significant variation in reporting thresh- LC = lateral clearance (ft).
old, only crashes that are associated with injury or fatality (KABC)
were considered in this study. For all segments,

Data Summary µ = e −5.685 × F 0.6329 × exp ( −0.192SW + 0.577SS − 0.02LC


C) (6)

Table 1 provides summary statistics of all segments on two-lane for tangent segments,
rural roads in Texas that were used in this study for model develop-
µ = e −6.575 × F 0.6506 × exp ( −0.123SW + 0.570SS − 0.012LC ) (7)

TABLE 1   Summary Statistics of Variables Used and for horizontal curves,
in This Study

Variable Min. Max. Mean (SD) µ = e −5.302 × F 0.762 × exp ( −0.205SW + 0.590SS − 0.024 LC
C) (8)
a
Length of section (mi) 0.1 11.1 0.5 (1.1)
Figure 2a shows the predicted number of crashes with the change
ADT 80 3,500 794 (597)
in average shoulder width for different traffic flow levels. When traffic
Shoulder width (ft) 0 10 3.5 (2.7)
flow is very low, the effect of shoulder width on roadway departure
Side slope rating 1 5 2.7 (0.8) crashes is marginal. However, with increased traffic flow, the increase
Driveway density 0 65.8 7.1 (10.1) in shoulder width has a greater effect. For example, when ADT is equal
Lateral clearance (ft) 1 66.9 24.5 (11.4) to 3,500 vpd, as shoulder width increases from 0 to 10 ft, a decrease
SVROR crashesb 0 16 0.8 (1.1) in the number of SVROR crashes from 0.59 to 0.09 crash/mi/year
can be expected.
Note: Min. = minimum; max. = maximum; SD = standard
deviation.
Figure 2b shows the comparison of the predicted number of crashes
a
Sum of all sections = 245.3 mi. with the change in average shoulder width on tangents and horizon-
b
Total = 197. tal curves when ADT is equal to 3,500 vpd. As the shoulder width
Peng, Geedipally, and Lord 25

TABLE 2   Estimation Results of Negative Binomial Model

Estimate (Standard Error)

Variable All Segmentsa Tangent Segmentsb Horizontal Curvesc

Intercept -5.685 (0.9955) -6.5748 (1.0942) -5.3024 (1.7235)


ADT 0.6329 (0.1308) 0.6506 (0.1506) 0.7623 (0.2117)
Shoulder width -0.1919 (0.048) -0.1225 (0.0482) -0.2047 (0.0855)
Side slope rating 0.5773 (0.1084) 0.5706 (0.1193) 0.5905 (0.1946)
Lateral clearance -0.0206 (0.0098) -0.0123 (0.0106) -0.0246 (0.0159)
Dispersion parameter 0.8396 (0.2567) 1.2604 (0.3062) 1.1028 (0.2817)

a
Goodness-of-fit-statistics: deviance = 327.85; degrees of freedom (df) = 0.661; Akaike information
criterion (AIC) = 715.6; and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) = 740.8.
b
Goodness-of-fit-statistics: deviance = 241.4; df = 0.80; AIC = 641.7; and BIC = 664.1.
c
Goodness-of-fit-statistics: deviance = 112.4; df = 0.59; AIC = 221.6; and BIC = 241.3.

on tangent segments increases from 0 to 10 ft, the number of SVROR to 3,500 vpd. As side slope rating on tangent segments changes from
crashes can be expected to decrease from 0.28 to 0.08 crash/mi/year 1 to 5, the number of SVROR crashes can be expected to increase
(71%), compared with a decrease from 2.5 to 0.32 crash/mi/year from 0.49 to 4.81 crashes/mi/year, compared with an increase from
(87%) on horizontal curves. 0.61 to 6.46 crashes/mi/year on horizontal curves. Zegeer and Coun-
Figure 3a shows the predicted number of crashes with the change cil also reported that roadside improvement could reduce crashes by
in average lateral clearance for different traffic flow levels. Simi- 19% to 52% when the side slope is flattened from 3:1 to 7:1 (24).
lar to the effect seen with shoulder width, the increase in lateral
clearance has a greater effect at higher ADT values. For example,
when ADT is equal to 3,500 vpd, as lateral clearance increases Multinomial Logit Regression
from 10 to 35 ft, a decrease in the number of SVROR crashes from
0.48 to 0.26 crash/mi/year can be expected. To further investigate the impact of roadside features on SVROR
Figure 3b shows the comparison of the predicted number of crashes, a multinomial logit model was used to estimate the relation-
crashes with the change in average lateral clearance on tangents and ship between roadside features and crash severity. A data set was
curves when the ADT is equal to 3,500 vpd. As lateral clearance on created with the severity of each crash as the dependent variable and
tangent segments increases from 10 to 40 ft, the number of SVROR the roadside features at the location of each crash as the indepen-
crashes can be expected to decrease from 0.25 to 0.17 crash/mi/ dent variables. One hundred ninety-seven SVROR KABC crashes
year (32%), compared with a decrease from 0.68 to 0.33 crash/mi/ occurred from 2003 to 2008 on the road segments described in the
year (51%) on horizontal curves. previous section. Of these crashes, 16 (8.2%) were fatal (Level K
Figure 4a shows the predicted number of crashes with the change crashes), 20 (10.1%) caused incapacitating injuries (Level A crashes),
in side slope rating for different traffic flow levels. Side slope rat- 84 (42.6%) caused nonincapacitating injuries (Level B crashes)
ing has a greater effect at higher ADT levels. For example, when and 77 (39.0%) were crashes that possibly caused injury (Level C
ADT is equal to 3,500 vpd, as side slope rating changes from 1 crashes). The multinomial logit model estimates k − 1 models for k
to 5, an increase in the number of SVROR crashes from 0.58 to levels of the outcome variable. There are four levels of the severity
5.84 crashes/mi/year can be expected. variable; thus, the models for three different severity levels were
Figure 4b shows the comparison of the predicted number of estimated. During the model calibration, possible injury (Level C),
crashes with the change in side slope rating when the ADT is equal was set as the base scenario with coefficients restricted at zero.
Crashes/mile/year

0.8 3
Crashes/mile/year

0.6 2.5
2
0.4
1.5
0.2
1
0 0.5
0 2 4 6 8 10
0
Average Shoulder Width (ft) 0 2 4 6 8 10
3500 veh/day 1000 veh/day Average Shoulder Width (ft)

100 veh/day tangents curves


(a) (b)

FIGURE 2   Change in SVROR crashes with change in shoulder width (veh = vehicles).
26 Transportation Research Record 2309

Crashes/mile/year
0.6 0.8

Crashes/mile/year
0.4 0.6

0.2 0.4

0 0.2
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
0
Average Lateral Clearance (ft) 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
3500 veh/day 1000 veh/day Average Lateral Clearance (ft)
100 veh/day tangents curves
(a) (b)

FIGURE 3   Change in SVROR crashes with change in lateral clearance.

Table 3 summarizes the estimation results of the multinomial logit probability of an incapacitating injury crash changes from 9.6% for
model. The examination of the coefficient values and their impli- no shoulder to 7.1% for a 10-ft shoulder.
cations for the corresponding crash severity levels is documented
below.
The coefficients in Table 3 were combined with Equation 4 to Lateral Clearance
obtain the systematic component of each crash severity for SVROR
crashes. The form of each model is given in Equations 9 through 11. The negative values for lateral clearance in Table 3 indicate that
For Level K crashes, as lateral clearance increases, the chance of a high-severity crash
goes down (as expected). Figure 6 suggests that as the lateral clear-
VK = − 1.3822 − 0.0793 × SW + 0.1073 × SS − 0.0238 × LC (9) ance changes from 10.0 ft to 40.0 ft, the probability of a fatal crash
decreases from 6.9% to 4%, and the probability of an incapacitating
for Level A crashes, injury crash decreases from 8.8% to 6.4%.

VA = − 1.2265 − 0.0733 × SW + 0.0675 × SS − 0.0162 × LC (10)


Side Slope Rating
and for Level B crashes,
The positive values for side slope rating in Table 3 indicate that as
VB = 0.3962 − 0.0734 × SW + 0.0435 × SS − 0.0072 × LC (11) the side slope rating increases, the chance of a high-severity crash
goes up. Figure 7 suggests that as the side slope rating changes from
The probability of each severity category is then obtained by 1 to 5, the probability of fatal crash increases from 8.8% to 11.6%,
combining Equation 5 with Equations 9 to 11. and the probability of an incapacitating injury crash increases from
9.9% to 11.1%.

Predicted Probabilities
Conclusions
Shoulder Width
The objective of this paper was to investigate the relationship
The negative values for shoulder width in Table 3 indicate that as between roadside features and SVROR crash frequency and sever-
shoulder width increases, the chance of a high-severity crash goes ity. The objective was accomplished by using field data collected in
down. Figure 5 suggests that the probability of a fatal crash changes four districts in Texas. The field data that were collected included
from 8.2% for no shoulder to 5.7% for a 10-ft shoulder and that the lateral clearance, side slope condition, and driveway density. A

8
Crashes/mile/year

8
Crashes/mile/year

6 6
4
4
2
0 2
1 2 3 4 5
0
Side Slope Rating 1 2 3 4 5
3500 veh/day 1000 veh/day Side Slope Rating
100 veh/day tangents curves
(a) (b)

FIGURE 4   Change in SVROR crashes with change in side slope rating (veh = vehicles).
Peng, Geedipally, and Lord 27

TABLE 3   Estimation Results of Multinomial Logit Model

Estimate (Standard Error)

Variable Fatality (K) Incapacitating Injury (A) Nonincapacitating Injury (B)

Alternative specific constant -1.3822 (0.2435) -1.2265 (0.0787) 0.3962 (0.0867)


Shoulder width -0.0793 (0.0198) -0.0733 (0.0176) -0.0734 (0.0176)
Side slope rating 0.1073 (0.0494) 0.0675 (0.0467) 0.0435 (0.0469)
Lateral clearance -0.0238 (0.0129) -0.0162 (0.0105) -0.0072 (0.0047)
Distribution of Crashes by Severity (%)

Shoulder Width (ft)

FIGURE 5   Severity distribution with change in shoulder width.


Distribution of Crashes by Severity (%)

Lateral Clearance (ft)

FIGURE 6   Severity distribution with change in lateral clearance.


28 Transportation Research Record 2309

Distribution of Crashes by Severity (%)

Side Slope Rating

FIGURE 7   Severity distribution with change in side slope rating.

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