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Longitudinal Research Designs

ELIZABETH PIPER DESCHENES

Introduction
The major goals and objectives of longitudinal research are the following:
to quantify trends in human behavior, to describe the progression of life
events, to identify patterns of behavioral change, to test theory, and to
justify interventions to prevent human and societal ills. The primary use of
longitudinal research has been to study the development and natural his-
tory of events in the life course. This type of design is often regarded as
superior to a cross-sectional design because it enables processes and causes
of change within individuals and among individuals to be identified. Longi-
tudinal research is useful in testing theory because it allows the examina-
tion of causal hypotheses. For example, the researcher can examine the
relationship between school failure and delinquency rates and determine if
those who fail are more likely to be delinquent than those who succeed in
school. Longitudinal research is also useful in describing the progression of
life events, such as the effect of marriage or becoming unemployed on
offending. Does unemployment lead to an increase in criminal behavior? Is
there a greater likelihood of desistance from crime after one is married?
These questions are just two of the many that are best answered with a
longitudinal design.
There is also a demand for longitudinal research designs in order to jus-
tify interventions for societal ills such as criminality and delinquency. Lon-
gitudinal research is needed not only to identify predictors of delinquency
and criminal behavior but also to evaluate the effectiveness of various in-
terventions and to identify determinants of desistance. Studying only those
already involved in a problem behavior (such as delinquency or mental
illness) makes it impossible to separate the antecedents of that behavior
from other possible explanations for the behavior. Thus, it is necessary to
start with an entire population and follow the life course of events that lead
to various outcomes. If certain characteristics can be identified as precur-
sors of delinquency, it may then be possible to select those likely to be

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© Springer-Verlag New York Inc. 1990
 7. Longitudinal Research Designs 153

delinquent in another population and provide certain prevention measures

or, at least, design effective intervention techniques.

Definition of Longitudinal Research Design

In comparison to cross-sectional designs, which measure subjects at one
point in time, longitudinal research designs, by definition, involve repeated
measurement over time of one or more groups of subjects. The major
advantage of a longitudinal research design is the ability to study the natu-
ral history and course of development of a phenomenon. Longitudinal re-
search can also provide information about the time ordering of different
events, which can be useful in determining causal relationships between
variables.
In criminology research, for example, the study of criminal careers de-
mands a longitudinal design, because it is necessary to measure patterns of
behavior in the beginning, progression, and cessation of delinquency or
crime. It is also possible to measure the prevalence (number of delinquents
or criminals in a given population) and the incidence (number of offenses
committed by a group of individuals) of offending. Different stages in the
criminal career and patterns of seriousness and diversity can be studied.
The real strength of longitudinal design is the ability to measure the patterns
and parameters of delinquent and criminal behavior, which allows ex-
amination of causal effects.

Types of Designs
There are four types of longitudinal designs: trend studies, cohort studies,
panel designs, and time-series designs. The different types of designs are
characterized by the group that is sampled, the length of time under study,
and the number of measurements obtained.
Trend studies are employed to examine the changes over time among
samples that are representative of a general population. For example, the
Drug Use Forecasting studies of drug use among arrestees (Wish, 1987) are
trend studies sponsored by the National Institute of Justice that measure
changes in type and quantity of drug use over 4 quarters within 1 year and
from 1 year to the next.
Panel designs involve two or more waves of data collection using the
same measures on the same sample. The National Youth Survey Project
(NYS) by Elliott, Ageton, Huizinga, Knowles, and Canter (1983) is a good
example of a multi-wave panel study of delinquency. In this project, a series
of annual surveys were conducted with a representative national sample of
American youth ages 11 to 17 in 1976. The sample was drawn from 2,360