Guest Column
Robert X. Perez, Celanese Chemicals
MTBF Calculations
in a Nutshell
M
ean time between failures (MTBF) is a
useful metric when failures are randomly
distributed — a good assumption for
most complex machines or devices.
For example, because pumps have numerous
failure modes, i.e. seal, bearing, and coupling fail-
ures, their failure distributions tend to be random
or exponential. For this reason, the MTBF metric is
useful in industries operating complex devices such
as pumps, motors, engines, turbines, trucks, etc.
Most users of machinery have complex popula-
tions (or fleets) of equipment. A fleet can be com-
prised of machinery of different sizes, manufactur-
ers, and services. Equipment can also be designated
as spared and unspared.
Users typically calculate and trend the aggre-
gate MTBF of their fleet to handle this complexity.
Although frequent and lively discussions may
debate exactly how this should be done, most com-
panies actually use similar equations for this calcu-
lation. I want to explain the most common equa-
tions for determining the fleet MTBF, with some
examples.
One problem of great interest is determining
which pieces of equipment in the fleet are “bad
actors.” Let’s walk through how the in-service
MTBF is determined using real-world data, and
how this data is used to select “bad actors” from a
complex population of equipment.
Definitions
T = test time (in days or years)
N = number of components in the population or fleet
M = number of components operating at any given time
F = total failures in the population during testing time (T)
%OS = Percent of the time on-stream
OST = On-stream time = Percent time on-stream x time
= %OS x T
λ = failure rate (failures/unit time)
MTTR = mean time to repair
6 AUGUST 2005
What is a failure?
First, define a failure. This definition varies
widely among users. I define a failure as any event
requiring the replacement of a machine component
due to a loss of equipment function. This definition
excludes all work related to preventative mainte-
nance, adjustments, or improvements.
Single Component Testing
Let’s assume we run a single new component in
a controlled test for a time T. Assume that when it
fails, it is replaced with a new or rebuilt component
instantaneously. This means we assume the MTTR
to be zero. If the component fails F times, the aver-
age mean time between failures (mtbf) is deter-
mined with the equation:
mtbf = T ÷ F (1)
Since we assumed the MTTR to be zero, we can
say the reciprocal of mtbf is equal to the average failure
rate (λ) for the testing interval T, or 1 ÷ mtbf = λ.
Fleet Calculations
For a mix of equipment types, such as pumps,
trucks, etc., users typically calculate the aggregate
mean time between failures of the fleet (MTBFfleet)
with this equation:
MTBRfleet = N T ÷ F (2)
Example 1:
500 pumps operate for a year, experiencing 100
failures. What is the average MTBF of the fleet?
MTBFfleet = 500 x 1 year ÷ 100 failures = 5 years
between failures
If it costs $4000 to repair a pump, what is the fore-
casted annual repair cost for this pump population?
$4000 x 100 per year = $400,000 per year
www.pump-zone.com PUMPS & SYSTEMS
Aug05PUMPS&SYSp6-7 7/20/05 10:09 AM Page 7

In-service Calculations M = 50 + 225 pumps

If some machines in the population are idle M ÷ N = 275 ÷ 500 = 55%
during the testing time, then a formula different MTBFin-service = (275 pumps x 1 year) ÷ 100 failures
from equation (2) is required to determine the aver- = 2.75 years/failure
age MTBF for machines that are in service
This represents a λ of 0.36 failures/year.
(MTBFin-service). If only the fraction M ÷ N of the
machines are operating during the testing time, CONTINUED on PAGE 94…
then equation (1) becomes:
MTBFin-service = N (M ÷ N) T ÷ F (3)
Simplified, this becomes:
MTBFin-service = M T ÷ F (4)

➥Note 1
To be more accurate, T should be the
actual mission time of the in-service
population. So, if the process is on-
stream 90 percent of the time, then
Tactual = OST = 0.9 x T. This is
written as:
MTBFin-service = M (%OS x T) ÷ F =
M x OST ÷ F (5)

Example 2:
500 pumps operate for a year,
experiencing 100 failures. If only
50 percent of these pumps are
operating at one time, what is the
average in-service MTBF?
MTBFin-service = (500 x 0.5 x 1 year)
÷ 100 failures = 2.5 year/failure
This represents an in-service fail-
ure rate (λ) of 0.4 failures per year.

➥Note 2
Here we will assume λ (failure rate)
= 1 ÷ MTBF by saying that MTBF
> MTTR. This is usually a good
approximation. For better accuracy,
state that λ = 1 ÷ (MTBF –
MTTR) if you know the MTTR
Circle 122 on Reader Service Card

value.

Example 3:
500 pumps operate for a year, ex-
periencing 100 failures. Review of
the operations data finds that 10
percent of the pumps are unspared
and the rest are spared. What is
the average in-service MTBF?

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Aug05PUMPS&SYSp88-94 7/20/05 3:02 PM
CONTINUED from PAGE 7…
Example 4:
There are three pumps in a single service. Only two
are required for the process. If these pumps experi-
enced 5 failures last year when they were operated
only 90 percent of the time, what is the average in-
service MTBF?
MTBFin-service = 2 pumps x 0.9 year ÷ 5 failures =
0.36 years/failure
This represents a λ of 2.78 failures/year.
Calculating MTBF with limited
field data
In cases where field data is limited, equation (5)
should be modified to bracket the possible MTBF
range as:
MTBFin-service (apparent) = M (%OS x T ) ÷ F =
M x OST ÷ F
MTBFin-service (lower limit) = M (%OS x T )
÷ (F + 1) = M x OST ÷ (F + 1)
This accounts for the possibility that a failure
occurred one day, hour, or second before you start-
ed recording data and one failure occurred soon
after the evaluation time ended. Once F ÷ (F + 1)
approaches 1, the distinction between the apparent
and lower limit values becomes less significant.
Pumps & Systems Advertiser’s Index
Advanced Sealing International . . . . . . .49
Anvil International, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . .46
Arkema, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22, 23
Baker Manufacturing Company / Haight
Pump Division . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .IBC
Baldor Electric Company . . . . . . . . . . . .25
Bently Pressurized Bearings . . . . . . . . . . . .7
Boerger, LLC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50
CEC Vibration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95
Cole-Parmer Instrument Company . . . .51
Continental Electric Motors, Inc. . . . . . .75
Dan Bolen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96
Des Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95
Diamond Innovations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .76
Dickow Pump Company . . . . . . . . . . . .52
Dupont Vespel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83
DXP Enterprises, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53
EagleBurgmann Industries LP . . . . . . . . .54
Ebac . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96
Eccentric Pumps, LLC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83
Emotron Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84
F. E. Myers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47
Falk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95
Flux Pumps Corporation . . . . . . . . . . . .84
Frontline Industries, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . .85
Garlock Sealing Technologies . . . . . .26,27
Godwin Pumps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55
94 AUGUST 2005
Page 96
Example 5:
Consider an example where you only have 2 years of
failure data for two spared pumps. During this time
you recorded one failure (Assume M = 1, %OS =
98%).
MTBFin-service (apparent) = (1 x 0.98 x 2 years) ÷ 1
= 1.96 years/failure
MTBFin-service (lower limit) = (1 x 0.98 x 2 years) ÷ 2
= 0.98 years/failure
Conclusions
Fleet data forecast annual repair costs and when
the next fleet failure will occur, as shown in Example
1. In-service data determine actual in-service failure
rates, which help in reliability modeling, assessing
component reliability, and identifying “bad actors.”
For example, if the fleet MTBF is 4 years/failure,
but a particular set of spared pumps has an average
in-service MTBF of 0.5 years/failure, this probably
indicates a pump design or operational problem.
P&S
Contributing editor Robert X. Perez is a staff engineer
of rotating equipment at Celanese Chemicals. He can
be reached at 361-584-6936 or rperez@bishopfacili-
ty.com.
Graphite Metallizing Corporation . . . . .77 ROC Carbon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96
Griffin Dewatering Corporation . . . . . . .56 Schlumberger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
Hydro, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28 Sealing Equipment Products Co. Inc. . . .65
Hydromatic Pump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48 seepex, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66
InduMar Products, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .85 Serfilco, Ltd. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .86
Inpro/Seal Company . . . . . . . . . . . .41, BC Sims Pump Valve Co. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96
ISG Thermal Systems USA, Inc. . . . . . . .57 Sims Pump Valve Company Inc. . . . . . .67
John Crane, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30, 31 SKF Sealing Solutions . . . . . . . . . . . .42, 43
KTR Corporation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58 Sponsler, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87
Load Controls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95 Standard Alloys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .68
Lutz-JESCO America Corporation . . . . .78 Sulzer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
Metallized Carbon Corporation . . . . . . .59 SyncroFlo, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69
Met-Pro Corporation/Dean Pump Div. . .34 Tarby . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .82
Met-Pro Corporation/Fybroc Div. . . . . . .34 Thordon Bearings Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70
Moyno, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .IFC Trico Manufacturing Corporation . . . . .71
MSE of Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95 Tuf Lok . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95
National Oilwell Varco . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 Vaughan Company, Inc. . . . . . . . . .36, 37
National Tribology Services, Inc. . . . . . . .86 Vertiflo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96
Netzsch Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .61 Viking Pump, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39
NIKKISO Pumps America, Inc. . . . . . . . .60 Water Works . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95
Oberdorfer Pumps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62 Wilden Pump & Engineering Co. . . . . . .72
Orival, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .79 Worldwide Electric Corporation . . . . . . .73
Parametrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96 Yamada Corporation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74
Peerless Pump Company, Inc. . . . . . . . .63
Periflo Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .80 *Ad index is furnished as a courtesty and
Polaris Pumps, LLC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64 no responsibility is assumed for incor-
Pumping Solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81 rect information.
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