LESSON 3 Exponential Distribution

The exponential distribution is one of the most

commonly used distributions in reliability and is
generally used to predict the probability of
survival to time t (see Figure).

The hazard function for the exponential distribution

is λ and is constant throughout the function.
Therefore, the exponential distribution
should only be used for reliability prediction during
the constant failure rate or random failure phase of
operation. Some unique characteristics of the
exponential distribution include:
• The mean and standard deviation are equal.
• 63.21% of all of the values fall below the
mean value, which translates into only a 36.79%
chance of surviving past the MTBF.
• Reliability, as time t approaches zero,
approaches one as a limit.

The reliability for a given time t during the

constant failure period can be calculated with the
following formula:
 R(t)=e-λt

Where:

e = The base of natural logarithm

2.718281828 . .

λ = Failure rate

t = Time (Note: Cycles [c] may be

substituted for time [t])
Example:
The equipment in a packaging plant has a failure
rate of 0.001/hr. What is the probability of
operating for a period of 500 hours without
failure?
Given:
λ = 0.001/hr.
t = 500 hrs.
Find:
R(t)
Solution:
R(t)=e-λt
R(500)=e-(0.001x500)=0.6065 or 60.65%
The λ or MTBF do not need to be a function of time
in hours. The characteristics of time or usage
can be such units as cycles rather than hours.
In this case Mean Cycles Before Failure
(MCBF) would be the appropriate measure.

Example:
One cycle of a molding machine produces 24 parts.
A study of this machine predicted an MCBF of
15,000 cycles. What is the probability of
operating 16,000 cycles without failure?

Given:
MCBF = 15,000 cycles
t = 16,000 cycles
  
Find:

λ, R(t)
Solution:
Recall that the failure rate is the reciprocal
of the mean time before failure
λ=
Where:
λ = Failure Rate
= Estimate of MTBF / MCBF

λ===0.0006667

R(t)=e-λt
R(16,000)=e-(0.00006667x16,000)=0.3441 or 34.41%
 
Example:
An item fails on the average of once every 10,000 hours.
What is the probability of survival for 2000 hours?

Given:
MTBF = 10,000 hrs.
t = 2,000 hrs.
Find:
λ, R(t)
Solution:
Recall that the failure rate is the reciprocal of the
mean time before failure
λ=
Where:
λ = Failure Rate
= Estimate of MTBF / MCBF
  λ===0.0001

R(t)=e-λt
R(2,000)=e-(0.0001x2,000)=0.8187 or 81.87%

An interesting aspect of prediction during

the random failure period is that the
probability of functioning for a given time
period (t) is totally independent of previous
operation. Therefore, as long as the
operation remains in random failure mode,
the probability of failure remains the same.
Remember from Lesson 1 “Reliability is quantified in
other ways. We can specify a reliability as the mean number
of failures in a given time (failure rate), or as the mean time
between failures (MTBF) for items which are repaired and
returned to use, or as the mean time to failure (MTTF) for
items which are not repaired, or as the proportion of the
total population of items failing during the mission
life.”
Example:
Let’s say we want to know if a new product will
survive 850 hours. We have data on 1,650 units
that have operated for an average of 400 hours.
Overall there have been 145 failures. We are
assuming an exponential distribution – thus we do
not need to know the time to failure for each
failure, just the total time and number of failures.
  
Assuming an exponential distribution and
interested in the reliability over a specific time,
we use the reliability function for the exponential
distribution.
The problem does not present a failure rate, just
the information to calculate a failure rate. For
lambda (λ) we divide the number of failures by
the total time the units operate. We’re given
1,650 its ran on the average 400 hours, thus 400
times 1,650 provides the total time.

λ===0.0002197

R(t)=e-λt
R(850)=e-(0.0002197x850)=0.8297 or 82.97%