RELIABILITY ENGINEERING – I SEM 2019-20

BITS Pilani Dr. ARUN MAITY

Pilani Campus
 BITS Pilani
Pilani Campus

MODULE 1: CONSTANT FAILURE RATE MODELS

Lecture No. 2 Chapter 3 T1
EXPONENTIAL RELAIBILITY FUNCTION

• A failure distribution that has a constant failure rate is called exponential

probability distribution

• If the failure rates of all failure modes of a component are constant and
independent, then the overall failure rate of the component is also constant

• Failures due to random or chance events will follow this distribution

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CFR MODEL

 R(t) = exp [ -
If ƛ is constant then R(t) = e – ƛt where t ≥ 0

F(t) = 1 - R(t) = 1 - e – ƛt

f(t) = = ƛ e – ƛt

MTTF = = = = Standard Deviation

= (MTTF)2
Variance = = =

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• Reliability of component with CFR has slightly more than one-third chance of
surviving to its mean time to failure:

R (MTTF) = e –MTTF/MTTF = e -1 = 0.368

• Design Life t R

R(t R) = 0.5 = e – ƛ t R

t R= - ln R / ƛ, if R 0.5 then,

Median = - ln 0.5 MTTF = 0.69315 MTTF

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Reliability in Series

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Reliability in Parallel (Redundnacy)

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Problem 3.1 Page 55

A component experiences chance (CFR) failures with an MTTF of 1100 hour.

Find the following:
i. Reliability for a 200-hr mission
ii. The design life for a 0.9 reliability
iii. The median time to failure
iv. The reliability of 200 hr mission if a second, redundant (and independent)
component is added.
v. The reliability of 200 hr mission if a second, single component is serially
added.

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Solution 3.1

Given MTTF = 1100 hr hence ƛ = 1/1100

i. R(200) = exp – (1/1100* 200) = 0.9555
ii. 0.90 = exp – (1/1100*t) taking ln both side and solve td = 115.9 hours
iii. 0.50 = exp –(1/1100 * t) taking ln both side and solve tmed = 762.46 hrs
iv. R(t) = 1 – (1- exp – ƛt)2 = 1 – ( 1 – exp – 1/1100* 200)2 = 0.9723
v. R(t) = exp - 2ƛt = exp – 2*1/1100*200 = 0.9131

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Characterisitics

•  The time to failure of a component is not dependent on how long the

component has been operating

• The probability that the component will operate for next t hours is the same
regardless of whether the component is brand new, has been operating for
several hours
• Using Condition Probability
R (t I To) = R (t + To)/ R(To) = = exp (-ƛt)

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Problem 3.2 Page 55

• A CFR system with ƛ = 0.0004 has been operating for 1000 hrs. What is the
probability that it will fail in the next 100 hr? the next 1000 hr?
• Solution:

a. F(t) = 1 - exp (– 0.0004 * 100) = 0.0392

b. F(t) = 1- exp (– 0.0004 * 1000) = 0.3297

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Failure Modes

• Failure occurs due to different physical phenomena or different characteristics of

individual components

• If R(t) is the reliability function for the ith failure mode, assuming independence
among the failure modes, then

• System reliability is the product of these probabilities that none of thee modes occur
before time t

• System hazard rate function is the sum of the individual hazard rate of function of all
the failure modes
• ƛ s = ƛ1 + ƛ2 + ƛ3 +…….. R(t) = e - ƛ s t

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 MTTF = = =

ƛs =

If all n components have identical ƛ then ƛs = nƛ and MTTF =

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Bath-tub Failure Modes

Failure modes in bath tub includes: Burn-in, Useful Life and Wear-Out

The failure rates of these failure modes can be summed up to find ƛs

Then we can find the reliability of the system for the mission hour

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Problem 3.3 Page 55

• A gearbox has two independent failure modes: a constant failure rate of

0.0003 and a linearly increasing wear out failure given by ƛ (t) = t / 5 x 10 5,
Find the reliability of the gear box for 100 hr of operation.

• Solution:

ƛs = 0.0003 + t / 5 x 10 5

R(t) = exp – (0.0003t + t 2 / 10 x 10 5)

R(100) = exp – (0.0003*100 + (100)2 / 10 x 10 5) = exp -0.04 = 0.9608

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Failure on Demand

•  Components fail from switching from idle mode to operating mode like bulbs
or air-conditioners
• If constant failure rate is assumed for each failure mode and a constant
probability of failure on demand is assumed, then the component will have an
effective failure rate on a clock hour basis
• ƛi is the average failure rate when idle
• ƛo is the average failure rate while operating
• p is the probability of failure on demand
• ti is the average length of the idle time period per cycle
• to is the average length of the operating time period per cycle
• ƛ eff = i + ƛo +

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Problem 3.18 Page 57

•  A 60 watt outdoor lightbulb is advertised as having an average life (i.e.

MTTF) of 1000 operating hours. However, experience has shown that it will
also fail on demand an average of once every 120 cycles. A particular bulb is
turned once each evening for an average of 10 hr. If it is desired to have a
reliability of 90 percent, what is the design life.

ƛ eff = i + ƛo +
ƛ eff = + (1/1000) + = 0.000764

0.90 = exp (-0.000764 t) therefore td = 137.9 hrs

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Renewal Process

•  A failed component is immediately replaced with a new one, will cause the
system to reach a steady state constant number of failures per unit of time

• For a renewal process in which failed components are replaced as they fail, a
steady state constant failure rate is obtained such that :
ƛ=

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Problem 3.7 Page 56

•  A system contains 20 identical and critical components that will be replaced

on failure (renewal process). As a result, a constant failure rate for the
system will be observed. If a design life of 10 year with a reliability of 0.99 is
required, what should the system MTTF and median time to failure? If each
component has CFR, what will the component MTTF and median time to
failure be?
• Solution:
0.99 = exp ( - ƛ * 10) therefore ƛs = 0.001/ year
MTTF = 1000 years

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Component ƛi = ƛs / n = 0.001/20 = 0.00005 / year
Component MTTF = 1/ ƛi = 1/0.00005 = 20000 years

System Median time to failure :

0.5 = exp (– 0.001 * tmed) tmed = 693.15 years

Component Median time to failure :

0.5 = exp (- 0.00005 * tmed) t med = 13863 years

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Repetitive Loading

• Let p be the probability of failure as a result of a load or stress on the system

and if independent loads are applied at constant, fixed interval of time, an
approximate reliability function results
R = 1 – p for single load
Rn = (1-p) n for n loads
= exp ln (1-p) n
= exp n ln (1-p) but as ln (1-p) = - p
= exp (– np)
As n = t / △t , △t being the fixed time between loads, so
R(t) = exp (- p/ △t) t = exp – ƛ t , where ƛ = p/ △t, a constant failure rate.

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Solution 3.6 Page 56

• A landing gear system has repetitive stresses placed on it twice a day as a result
of loadings. The probability of a failure during landing is 0.0028. Determine the
reliability of the landing gear system over a 30-day contingency operation. What
is the probability of a failure occurring between days 10 and 20 of the operation?

• Solution: p = 0.0028 △t = ½ day t = 30 days

• i. R(t) = exp (- 0.0028 *2) * 30 = exp – 0.168 = 0.8454

• ii. F (t) = F(b) – F(a) = R(a) – R(b) = exp (-0.0028*2*10) – exp (-0.0028*2*20)
= 0.9455 – 0.8940 = 0.0515

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Two-Parameter Exponential Distribution

 Guaranteed Lifetime : to :The minimum time prior to which no failure occurs.

• It is a location parameter that shifts the distribution an amount equal to t o to
the right on the time axis.

• f(t) = ƛ exp –ƛ (t – to) where 0 ≤ to ≤ t ≤ ∞

• R(t) = exp –ƛ (t – to)
• MTTF = to+
• R (tmed)= exp –ƛ (tmed – to) = 0.5
• tmed = to+

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 • Design life t R = to+

• Variance (1/ 2) and standard deviation (1/ƛ) of the two parameter exponential
distribution are not affected by the location parameter.

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Problem 3.15

• Consider two identical and redundant CFR components having a guaranteed

life of 2 months and a failure rate of 0.15 failure per year. What is the system
reliability for 10,000 hr of continuous operation?

• Solution: to = 2/12 = 0.167 ƛ = 0.15 t = 10000/365*24 = 1.14 years

• R(t) = 1- {1- exp – 0.15 ( 1.14 – 0.167)}2 = 0.982

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Poisson’s Distribution

•  If a component having a constant failure rate is immediately repaired or

replaced upon failing, then the number of failures observed over a period of
time t has a Poisson Distribution
• The probability of observing n failures in time t is given by
P (t) =

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Problem 3.13

•  An electronic circuit board with ƛ (t) = 0.00021 per hour is replaced on failure.
What is the probability that the third failure will occur by 10000 hours?

• Solution:
ƛ = 0.00021 ƛ t = 0.00021* 10000 = 2.1
p0= = 0.122
P1 = = 0.257
P2 == 0.270
P3 = 1- p0-p1-p2= 0.351

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Redundancy and CFR Model

 Two Components in Parallel: The system will fail when both the components fail

F(t) = (1- exp –ƛt) * (1- exp –ƛt) = (1- exp –ƛt) 2

R ( t) = 1 - (1- exp –ƛt) 2 = 2 exp –ƛt – exp -2 ƛt

ƛ(t) = =
MTTF =

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THANKS

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