ONE-SAMPLE

TESTS OF
HYPOTHESIS
STATISTIKA
ONE-SAMPLE TESTS OF
HYPOTHESIS
• Hypothesis testing for a population mean
• Known population standard deviation
• Unknown population standard deviation
• Hypothesis testing for a population variance
• Hypothesis testing for a population proportion
What is a Hypothesis?
• A hypothesis is a statement about the value of a population
parameter developed for the purpose of testing.
• Examples of hypotheses made about a population parameter are:
• The mean monthly income for systems analysts is $3,625.
• Twenty percent of all customers at Bovine’s Chop House return
for another meal within a month.
• In 2016, the mean starting salary for a graduate from a four-year
business program is $51,541.
• According to the Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com), a 2017 Ford
Edge averages 21 miles per gallon in the city.
• The mean cost to remodel a kitchen is $20,000.
What is Hypothesis Testing?
• The terms hypothesis testing and testing a hypothesis are
used interchangeably.
• Hypothesis testing starts with a statement, or assumption,
about a population parameter—such as the population
mean.
• This statement is referred to as a hypothesis.
• Hypothesis testing is a procedure, based on sample
evidence and probability theory.
• Hypothesis testing used to determine whether the
hypothesis is a reasonable statement and should not be
rejected, or is unreasonable and should be rejected.
Hypothesis Testing Steps

THE STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING

1) Establish the null hypothesis (H0) and the alternate hypothesis (H1).
2) Select the level of significance, that is, α.
3) Select an appropriate test statistic.
4) Formulate a decision rule based on steps 1, 2, and 3 above.
5) Make a decision regarding the null hypothesis based on the sample
information.
6) Interpret the results of the test.
Step 1: State the Null Hypothesis (H0) and
the Alternate Hypothesis (H1)
• The first step is to state the hypothesis being tested. It is called
the null hypothesis (H0).
• Generally speaking, the null hypothesis is developed for the
purpose of testing.
• We either reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis.
• The null hypothesis is a statement that is not rejected unless our
sample data provide convincing evidence that it is false.
• NULL HYPOTHESIS A statement about the value of a population
parameter developed for the purpose of testing numerical
evidence.
• ALTERNATE HYPOTHESIS A statement that is accepted if the
sample data provide sufficient evidence that the null hypothesis is
false.
Important Things to Remember about H0
and H1
• H0: null hypothesis and H1: alternate hypothesis
• H0 and H1 are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive
• H0 is always presumed to be true
• H1 has the burden of proof
• A random sample (n) is used to “reject H0”
• Equality is always part of H0 (e.g. “=” , “≥” , “≤”).
• “≠” “<” and “>” always part of H1.

7
Important Things to Remember about H0
and H1
• If we conclude 'do not reject H0', this does not necessarily
mean that the null hypothesis is true, it only suggests that
there is not sufficient evidence to reject H0;
• ejecting the null hypothesis then, suggests that the
alternative hypothesis may be true.
• In problem solving, look for key words and convert them
into symbols. Some key words include: “improved, better
than, as effective as, different from, has changed, etc.”
EXAMPLE of H0 and H1
• The following example will help clarify what is meant by the null
hypothesis and the alternate hypothesis.
• A recent article indicated the mean age of U.S. commercial aircraft is 15
years. To conduct a statistical test regarding this statement, the first step
is to determine the null and the alternate hypotheses.
• The null hypothesis represents the current or reported condition. It is
written H0: μ = 15. The alternate hypothesis is that the statement is not
true, that is, H1: μ ≠ 15.
• It is important to remember that no matter how the problem is stated,
the null hypothesis will always contain the equal sign.
• The equal sign (=) will never appear in the alternate hypothesis. Why?
Because the null hypothesis is the statement being tested, and we need
a specific value to include in our calculations. We turn to the alternate
hypothesis only if the data suggest the null hypothesis is untrue.
Step 2: Select a Level of Significance
• After setting up the null hypothesis and alternate hypothesis, the next step is to
state the level of significance.
• LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE The probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is
true.
• The level of significance is designated α, the Greek letter alpha.
• It is also sometimes called the level of risk. This may be a more appropriate term
because it is the risk you take of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is really
true.
• There is no one level of significance that is applied to all tests.
• A decision is made to use the .05 level (often stated as the 5% level), the .01 level,
the .10 level, or any other level between 0 and 1.
• Traditionally, the .05 level is selected for consumer research projects, .01 for
quality assurance, and .10 for political polling.
TYPE I ERROR
• In terms of hypothesis testing, we rejected the null
hypothesis when we should have failed to reject the null
hypothesis.
• By rejecting a true null hypothesis, we committed a Type I
error.
• The probability of committing a Type I error is represented
by the Greek letter alpha (α).
• TYPE I ERROR Rejecting the null hypothesis, H0, when it is
true.
TYPE II ERROR
• The other possible error in hypothesis testing is called Type
II error.
• The probability of committing a Type II error is designated
by the Greek letter beta (β).
• TYPE II ERROR Not rejecting the null hypothesis when it is
false.
TYPE I and II ERROR
Step 3: Select the Test Statistic
• TEST STATISTIC A value, determined from sample
information, used to determine whether to reject the null
hypothesis.
• There are many test statistics.
• We use both Z and t as the test statistics.
• We will use such test statistics as F and χ2, called chi-square.
Step 4: Formulate the Decision Rule
• A decision rule is a statement of the specific conditions
under which the null hypothesis is rejected and the
conditions under which it is not rejected.
• The region or area of rejection defines the location of all
those values that are so large or so small that the
probability of their occurrence under a true null hypothesis
is rather remote.
• CRITICAL VALUE The dividing point between the region
where the null hypothesis is rejected and the region where
it is not rejected.
Parts of a Distribution in Hypothesis
Testing
Note in the chart that:
• The area where the null hypothesis is not rejected is to the left of
1.645.
• We will explain how to get the 1.645 value shortly.
• The area of rejection is to the right of 1.645.
• A one-tailed test is being applied. (This will also be explained later.)
• The .05 level of significance was chosen.
• The sampling distribution of the statistic z follows the normal
probability distribution.
• The value 1.645 separates the regions where the null hypothesis is
rejected and where it is not rejected.
• The value 1.645 is the critical value.
Step 5: Make a Decision
• The fifth step in hypothesis testing is to compute the value
of the test statistic.
• Compare its value to the critical value, and make a decision
to reject or not to reject the null hypothesis.
Step 6: Interpret the Result
• The final step in the hypothesis testing procedure is to
interpret the results.
• The process does not end with the value of a sample
statistic or the decision to reject or not reject the null
hypothesis.
ONE-TAILED AND TWO-TAILED
HYPOTHESIS TESTS
• It is called a one-tailed test because the rejection region is
only in one tail of the curve.
• One way to determine the location of the rejection region is
to look at the direction in which the inequality sign in the
alternate hypothesis is pointing (either < or >).
• If it is pointing to the left, and the rejection region is
therefore in the left tail and vice versa.
• If no direction is specified in the alternate hypothesis, we
use a two-tailed test.
ONE-TAILED AND TWO-TAILED
HYPOTHESIS TESTS
• A test is one-tailed when the alternate hypothesis, H1, states a direction,
such as:
• H0: The mean income of female stockbrokers is less than or equal to
$65,000 per year.
• H1: The mean income of female stockbrokers is greater than
$65,000 per year.
• Changing the previous problem to illustrate, we can say:
• H0 : The mean income of female stockbrokers is $65,000 per year.
• H1 : The mean income of female stockbrokers is not equal to
$65,000 per year.
ONE-TAILED HYPOTHESIS
TESTS
 Left-tail or Right-tail Test?
Inequality Part • The direction of the test involving
Keywords Symbol of: claims that use the words “has
Larger (or more) than > H1 improved”, “is better than”, and the
Smaller (or less) < H1 like will depend upon the variable
being measured.
No more than  H0
• For instance, if the variable involves
At least ≥ H0
time for a certain medication to take
Has increased > H1 effect, the words “better” “improve”
Is there difference? ≠ H1 or more effective” are translated as
“<” (less than, i.e. faster relief).
Has not changed = H0
• On the other hand, if the variable
Has “improved”, “is > H1 refers to a test score, then the words
better than”. “is “better” “improve” or more
more effective” effective” are translated as “>”
(greater than, i.e. higher test scores)
TWO-TAILED HYPOTHESIS
TESTS
p-VALUE IN HYPOTHESIS
TESTING
• p-VALUE is the probability of observing a sample value as
extreme as, or more extreme than, the value observed,
given that the null hypothesis is true.
• In testing a hypothesis, we can also compare the p-value to
with the significance level ().
• If the p-value < significance level, H0 is rejected.
• If the p-value > significance level, H0 is accepted.
What does it mean when p-value
< ?
• p-value < 0.10, we have some evidence that H0 is not true.

• p-value < 0.05, we have strong evidence that H0 is not true.

• p-value < 0.01, we have very strong evidence that H0 is not

true.

• p-value < 0.001, we have extremely strong evidence that H0

is not true.
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
FOR A POPULATION MEAN
Z-VALUE Of SOME a

• Z5% = Z0,05 = 1,645

• Z1% = Z0,01 = 2,326
• Z2,5% = Z0,025 = 1,96
• Z0,5% = Z0,005 = 2,576
HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR A POPULATION
MEAN: KNOWN POPULATION STANDARD
DEVIATION
HIPOTESIS UJI STATISTIK KRITERIA
PENOLAKAN HO
Ho : m = mo
H1 : m  mo Z0  Z / 2
Ho : m ≥ mo y  0
Z0  Z0   Z
H1 : m < mo / n
Ho : m ≤ mo
H1 : m > mo Z0  Z
Example 1
• Jamestown Steel Company manufactures and assembles desks and
other office equipment at several plants in western New York State.
• The weekly production of the Model A325 desk at the Fredonia Plant
follows a normal probability distribution with a mean of 200 and a
standard deviation of 16.
• Recently, because of market expansion, new production methods have
been introduced and new employees hired.
• The vice president of manufacturing would like to investigate whether
there has been a change in the weekly production of the Model A325
desk.
• The mean number of desks produced last year (50 weeks because the
plant was shutdown 2 weeks for vacation) is 203.5. The standard
deviation of the population is 16 desks per week.
• Is the mean number of desks produced at the Fredonia Plant different
from 200 at the .01 significance level?
Example 1 (cont.)
1) H0: µ = 200
H1: µ ≠ 200
2) Two tailed; α/2 = 0.01/2 = 0.005
3) Uji Z (because known standard deviation population)
4) REJECT H0: if the computed value of Z is NOT between -2.576
and 2.576 ( Z0 < -2.576 OR Z0 > 2.576)
ACCEPT H0: if the computed value of Z is between -2.576 and
2.576 (-2.576
203.5 <200
Z0 < 2.576)
Z stat  1.547
5) 16 / 50 -2.576 < Z stat 2.576, ACCEPT H0.

6) The sample information fails to indicate that the new

production methods resulted in a change in the 200-desks-per-
week production rate.
Example 1 (cont.)
Example 1 (cont.)
1) H0: µ = 200
H1: µ ≠ 200
2) α/2 = 0.01/2 = 0.005
3) p-value = 0.5 – 0.4394 (lihat di table Z, pada Z = 1.547~1.55) =
0.0606
4) REJECT H0: if the p-value < α/2
ACCEPT H0: if the p-value > α/2
5) p-value = 0.5 – 0.4394 = 0.0606
0.0606 > 0.005
6) What should we tell the vice president? The sample information
fails to indicate that the new production methods resulted in a
change in the 200-desks-per-week production rate.
Example 1 (cont.)
Example 2
• Jamestown Steel Company manufactures and assembles desks and
other office equipment at several plants in western New York State.
• The weekly production of the Model A325 desk at the Fredonia Plant
follows a normal probability distribution with a mean of 200 and a
standard deviation of 16.
• Recently, because of market expansion, new production methods have
been introduced and new employees hired.
• The vice president of manufacturing would like to investigate whether
there has been a change in the weekly production of the Model A325
desk.
• Suppose the vice president wants to know whether there has been an
increase in the number of units assembled.
• Can we conclude, because of the improved production methods, that
the mean number of desks assembled in the last 50 weeks was more
than 200?
Example 2 (cont.)
1) H0: µ ≤ 200
H1: µ > 200
2) One-tailed, right tail; α = 0.01
3) Uji Z
4) REJECT H0: if the computed value of Z stat > 2.326
ACCEPT H0: if the computed value of Z stat < 2.326
203.5  200
5) Z stat  1.547 Z stat < 2.326, ACCEPT H0.
16 / 50

6) The sample information fails to indicate that the new

production methods resulted more than 200-desks-per-
week production rate.
Example 2 (cont.)
HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR A POPULATION
MEAN: POPULATION STANDARD DEVIATION
UNKNOWN

HIPOTESIS UJI STATISTIK KRITERIA

PENOLAKAN HO
Ho : m = mo
H1 : m  mo t0  t / 2,( n  1)
Ho : m ≥ mo y  0
t0  t0   t ,( n  1)
H1 : m < mo S/ n
Ho : m ≤ mo
H1 : m > mo t0  t ,( n  1)
HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR A POPULATION
MEAN: POPULATION STANDARD DEVIATION
UNKNOWN
• In the preceding example, we knew σ, the population
standard deviation, and that the population followed the
normal distribution.
• In most cases, however, the population standard deviation is
unknown.
• Thus, σ must be based on prior studies or estimated by the
sample standard deviation, s.
• The population standard deviation in the following example
is not known, so the sample standard deviation is used to
estimate σ.
EXAMPLE 3
• The McFarland Insurance Company Claims $45 76 43
Department reports the mean cost to process a
48 62 78
claim is $60.
• An industry comparison showed this amount to 48 67 63
be larger than most other insurance companies, 58 51 56
so the company instituted cost-cutting measures. 38 58 61
• To evaluate the effect of the cost-cutting
49 40 64
measures, the supervisor of the Claims
Department selected a random sample of 26 53 63 69
claims processed last month and recorded the 54 56 57
cost to process each claim.
51 59
• The sample information is reported below.
• At the .01 significance level, is it reasonable to
conclude that the mean cost to process a claim is
now less than $60?
Example 3 (cont.)
1) H0: µ ≥ $60
H1: µ < $60
2) One-tailed, left tail; α = 0.01; df = n – 1 = 25
3) t distribution
4) REJECT H0: if the computed value of t stat < -2.485
ACCEPT H0: if the computed value of t stat > -2.485
5) The mean of the sample = $56.423
The standard
$56.423 deviation
$60 of this sample = $10.041
t stat   1.816
$10.041 / 26 t stat > -2.485, ACCEPT H0.

6) It is NOT reasonable to conclude that the mean cost to process a

claim is now less than $60. The test results do not allow the claims
department manager to conclude that the cost-cutting measures have
been effective.
EXAMPLE 3 (cont.)
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
FOR A POPULATION
PROPORTION
HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR A
POPULATION PROPORTION
• In some situations, you want to test a hypothesis about the
proportion of events of interest in the population, rather
than test the population mean.
• To begin, you select a random sample and compute the
sample proportion, you then compare the value of this
statistic to the hypothesized value of the parameter.
• You use the Z test for the proportion perform the
hypothesis test for the difference between the sample
proportion, p, and the hypothesized population proportion,
p.
HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR A
POPULATION PROPORTION
HIPOTESIS UJI STATISTIK KRITERIA
PENOLAKAN HO
Ho : p = po
H1 : p  po p  0 Z0  Z / 2
Z0 
Ho : p ≥ po p
H1 : p < p o  0  1 0  Z0   Z
p 
Ho : p ≤ po n
H1 : p > p o Z0  Z
EXAMPLE 5
• Consider a survey conducted for American Express that
sought to determine the reasons adults wanted Internet
access while on vacation. (Data extracted from “Wired
Vacationers,” USA Today, June 4, 2010, p. 1A.)
• Of 2,000 adults, 1,540 said that they wanted Internet access
so they could check personal e-mail while on vacation.
• A survey conducted in the previous year indicated that 75%
of adults wanted Internet access so they could check
personal e-mail while on vacation.
• Is there evidence that the percentage of adults who wanted
Internet access to check personal e-mail while on vacation
has changed from the previous year?
EXAMPLE 5 (cont.)
1) H0: π = 0.75
H1: π ≠ 0.75
2) Two tailed; α/2 = 0.05/2 = 0.025
3) Z distribution
4) REJECT H0: if Z stat < -1.96 OR Z stat > 1.96 ( |Z0|> 1.96)
0.77  0.75 0.02
5) Z stat   2.0656
0.75  1  0.75  0.0097
2,000
REJECT H0, because Z stat > 1.96.
6) There is evidence that the population proportion of all adults who
want Internet access to check personal e-mail while on vacation has
changed from 0.75 in the previous year.
EXAMPLE 5 (cont.)
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
FOR A POPULATION
VARIANCE
HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR A
POPULATION VARIANCE
• Assuming that the data are normally distributed,
you use the test for the variance or standard
deviation to test whether the population variance
or standard deviation is equal to a specified value.
HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR A POPULATION
VARIANCE

HIPOTESIS UJI STATISTIK KRITERIA

PENOLAKAN H0
H0 : s2 = s02  02  2 / 2,( n  1) atau
H1 : s2  s02  02  (12   / 2),( n  1)
H0 : s2 ≥ s02  n  1 S 2
2
   02   21   ,( n  1)
H1 : s2 < s02 0
 02
H0 : s2 ≤ s02
H1 : s2 > s02  02  2,( n  1)
EXAMPLE 4
• In the cereal-filling process, you assumed that the
population standard deviation, was equal to 15
grams, you select a sample of 25 cereal boxes.
• To determine whether the variability of the process
has changed, you need to test whether the
standard deviation has changed from the previously
specified level of 15 grams.
• Suppose that in the sample of 25 cereal boxes, the
standard deviation is 17.7 grams.
• Use the 0.05 level of confidence.
EXAMPLE 4 (cont.)
1) H0: s2 = 225
H1: s2 ≠ 225
2) Two-tailed; α/2 = 0.05/2 = 0.025, df = 24
3) χ2 distribution
4) REJECT H0: if χ2 stat < 12.401 OR χ2 stat > 39.364
2
5)  2  (25  1)17.7
stat 2
33.42
15
6) ACCEPT H0, because 12.401 < χ2 stat < 39.364. You
conclude that there is insufficient evidence that the
population standard deviation is different from 15 grams.
EXAMPLE 4 (cont.)