Climate system

Feedback

Milankovitch cycles
Past climate changes
 Radiative unbalance->T,
and many factors (agents)

Do we have a Global Warming?

Do we have a Global Warming?
 IPCC 2007 terminology

• It is very likely that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have contributed to most of the warming.

• Without atmospheric aerosols it is likely that temperature rises would have been greater (masking
underlying warming)
 S
Global Warming Model
A 0
S0 4
S0
4 (1 −  )TE4 T14 S0 A (1 −  )TE4
4
4
T14

T1 , S

T14
TE4
TE , S

Our model is only a first step in understanding climate change, as we must now allow
the climate system to respond.

Sun

Atmosphere
Earth Surface

Climate models are much more complicated

 Earth’s Climate System

Atmosphere
Climate
model Biosphere
Land Ocean Ice
components (vegetation)

Climate “happens” between two surfaces

 Radiative Forcing=>
Temperature Changes Climate Change
Global Warming/Cooling

External forcings

Human
Very complicated interactions and analysed by numerical Climate Modeling, where
activities ALL processes and interactions should be included

Few very important interactions will be considered in our course

Feedback Mechanisms (many interactions are not one way)

Feedback in general is the process in which changing one quantity

(A) changes a second quantity (B), and the change in the second
quantity (B) in turn changes the first (A).

A B

Positive feedback amplifies the change in the first quantity (A) while
negative feedback reduces it (A).

Our major focus is on Temperature (A=T)

T B
 Feedback examples
Water vapor feedback

• Warmer ocean temperatures lead to increased evaporation,

hence more water vapor in the atmosphere. This is a powerful
greenhouse gas, which leads to more warming, which leads to
temperature increase

Higher temperature +
+
Water
T
More water vapor Vapor

POSITIVE

But water vapor feedback can be negative

Higher temperature Higher temperature
+

More water vapor More water vapor

Increased cloud cover

More reflected solar radiation

–
More absorbed infrared radiation
Lower temperature
+

Higher temperature
Ice-albedo Feedback

Temperature increases (say, higher CO2, change in radiation)

→ ice melts
→ reduced reflectivity (albedo)
→more radiation received at the earth’s surface

Temperature increases (so, positive feedback loop)

Higher temperature +
+
Ice
T
Reduced Ice Albedo Albedo

POSITIVE
Vegetation-albedo feedback

change in temperature

→ Change in vegetation
→ change in regional albedo (reflectivity)
→change in radiation

change in temperature

Higher temperature
+ or -

Vegetation-albedo
Home work: consider examples of feedbacks presented on the previous 4 slides
but with temperature decreases
 All feedback have to be accounted in climate change evaluations

1. It is unclear what is the strength and even directions (negative or

positive).

2. Clould effects can be either “umbrella” or “blanket”.

umbrella blanket

Low cumulus clouds High cirrus clouds

Negative feedback Positive feedback
3. It is uncertain whether an increased temperature will lead to
increased or decreased cloud cover.

4. It is generally agreed that increased temperatures will cause higher

rates of evaporation and hence make more water vapor
available for cloud formation, the form (e.g., type, height, and
size of droplets) which these additional clouds will take is much
less certain.
 For the ~ last century the main external forcing is created by
Human activities (1.6 Wt/m2), (sun forcing ~0.1Wt/m2)

External forcings

Human
activities
Forcing from sun: S0
A
S0 4
4 (1 −  )TE4 T14

Changes So

We feel effect of “changing” So all the time: day-night, summer-winter

Recent, researchers have found the 11-year sunspot cycle
 Year scale:
March K-W June

Summer:
longer days,
more solar radiation

Sept. Dec.
Winter:
shorter days,
less solar radiation
Less sun radiation in june for North hemisphere and more to South hemisphere
(due to eccentricity)

147 Mil km 153 Mil km

Winters are milder in North hemisphere (S is stronger)

But summers are colder!

Orbital Variations (Milankovitch cycles)

Eccentricity
(the major forcing
factor for the timing
of ice ages)

Tilt changes
22° to 24.5°
Precession
(wobble)
 4 glacial cycles recorded in the Vostok ice core

Related?

North hemisphere summer

North hemisphere winter
Summers are getting colder
When averaging over the entire surface of the Earth and over the entire year, the
orbital cycles only have a tiny effect on the total amount of heat the Earth gets
from the sun. But orbital cycles affect climate by redistributing the energy from
one place to another and from one season to another.

Summer sunlight matters most to driving climate rather than winter because it is
always cold enough to snow in winter, but the question is whether the summer is
warm enough to melt the snow or keep it around to add to the snow from the next
winter.

Very attractive idea to relate glacial periods to 100,000 years orbital cycle.
 4 glacial cycles recorded in the Vostok ice core

~50,000

Why trend is not reversing?

(feedbacks?)
Increasing in albedo can’t
provide that rate of T decrease.
Why we had it?
 The changes in the albedo (from ice), are responsible for some of the temperature
changes through the glacial cycle.

CO2 changes also contributing.

Why transition to warm period fast?

No one is sure exactly why CO2 in the atmosphere changes up and correlated with
the ice coverage (but obviously some feedback)

Ocean is thought to be the major player (not many other options)

 Bottom line:

1. Forcing responsible for few degrees of temperature change can lead to complex chain
of different positive feedbacks leading to much higher changes (~10 degrees)

2. We don’t have complete understanding of these feedbacks

Good thing: we don’t have that variety of uncertainties for the near future
 180 m.y.a. Present

Plate tectonics and drift concentrated continents at higher latitudes allowed for more
ice cover, which reflected more sunlight and cause greater cooling.

Periods of mountain building increase snow-covered high elevation areas producing a

similar snow-albedo.

The position of continents, mountains, and oceans create complex changes in

atmospheric (and oceanic circulation).
 Extinction of the Dinosaurs

• Billions of tons of dust and debris were injected into atmosphere around 65 m.y.a. from a
giant meteorite collision with earth.
• The reduction in sunlight from the dust and debris clouds caused photosynthesis to stop
and broke down the food chain.
• This catastrophic collision is evident around the world from a thin layer of sediment
deposit called the K-T boundary where it separates the end of the Cretaceous period, and
the beginning of the Tertiary Period.
• The K-T boundary is made up of iridium material which is commonly found in
meteorite.