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Restricted Belt Road Initiative & China Pakistan Economic Corridor
Restricted Belt Road Initiative & China Pakistan Economic Corridor
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ibid.
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Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Belt and Road, Issued by the National Development and Reform Commission (NRDC), Ministry
of Foreign Affairs, and Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China with State Council authorization -
http://english.cri.cn/index.htm
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Asian Development Bank has outlined 6 distinct stages of corridor development.
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PART- I
BRI & CPEC - AN OVERVIEW
“The vision of OBOR is to resurrect the ancient Silk Road as a modern transit, trade, and
economic corridor creating an economic zone extending over one third the circumference
of the earth. Establish and strengthen partnerships among the countries along the Belt and
Road by building high-speed railroads, roads and highways, energy transmission and
distributions networks, and fiber optic networks5”.
(Chinese President Xi Jinping 2013)
BRI
6. Moving into the 21st century, an era that is dominated by the success story of
Chinese rising economic power, it was but natural to revive the old Silk Road and Maritime
Silk Road concepts and repackage it in the form of ‘One Belt and One Road’, commonly
known as BRI. Launched in 2013, it is based on three drivers; energy, security and market.
Like the ‘silken strands on a loom’, these drivers would weave together to create a
fabric of interconnected transport corridors and port facilities to tap new energy
resources, enhance trade, improve security, and explore new markets. China wants to
make CPEC a joint and cooperative model for OBOR. China cannot go ahead without the
support and cooperation from Pakistan. It is a win-win situation for both countries.
Significant Chinese interests are:-
a. Economic Interests
(1) Augmenting trade connections with the world and access to the IOR
through Pakistan.
(2) Enhanced bilateral trade with Pakistan.
(3) Facilitate oil imports from major partners.
(4) Socio-economic development for a stable Western China.
(5) Creating business opportunities for Chinese entrepreneurs.
b. Security Interests.
(1) Addressing “Malaccan Dilemma”, creating an alternate route to South
China Sea and avoiding US/ Indian Navies in Indian Ocean.
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Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Belt and Road, Issued by the National Development and Reform Commission (NRDC), Ministry
of Foreign Affairs, and Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China with State Council authorization -
http://english.cri.cn/index.htm
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a. Regional connectivity
b. Energy Hub/ flows.
c. Diverse Investment opportunities.
d. Industrial cooperation.
e. Financial cooperation.
f. Enhance security and stability of the region.
11. Institutional Mechanism
a. Pakistan and China have established Joint Working Group (JWG) for all
plans which are recommended for approval to the Joint Coordination
Committee (JCC), co-chaired by minister Planning Development & Reform
(PDR) and Vice Chairman National Development & Reform Commission
(NDRC). It is further subdivided into sub groups:-
(1) Planning Joint Working Group.
(2) Energy Joint Working Group.
(3) Transport Infrastructure Joint Working Group.
(4) Gwadar Joint Working Group.
(5) Industrial Parks / Economic Zone Joint Working Group.
b. Pakistan’s Ministry of Planning, Development & Reform is the focal ministry
for this engagement.
12. Financial Model/ Layout
a. Initially the size of CPEC was US $ 46 billion which has now been raised to
over US $62 billion after including more projects under CPEC.
b. The Silk Road Fund Coop Ltd was established in China in December 2015 to
extend investment and financing support to CPEC projects and to promote
industrial cooperation with Pakistan.
c. Chinese government and banks, will loan funds to Chinese and Pakistani
companies worth who will invest in the projects as commercial ventures.
d. Loan has been worked out in three categories; concessional loan, interest-
free loan, and loan on market rates6.
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Professor Ahsan Iqbal, NDU 7 October 2016.
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e. Out of US $51 billion, 33.79 billion is for energy, 11.19 billion for
Infrastructure, 0.7 billion for Gawadar Port and fiber optics and an additional
loan of $ 5 billion to upgrade the main railway line from Karachi to Peshawar.
Major Projects and Their Progress
13. CPEC’s 4 phase development plan includes 51 x projects stretched over 15 years 7.
Phase 1 includes Early Harvest Projects, Phase 2 energy and infrastructure, Phase 3
Special Economic Zones and Phase 4 includes railways and additional socio-economic
cooperation8. Major infrastructure projects are:-
(1) Western Route. Starts from Gwadar and via Quetta to Dera Ismail
Khan, Peshawar, and finally KKH.
(2) Central Route. Starts from Gwadar and via Basima, Khuzdar,
Jacobabad, DG Khan, to Islamabad, and KKH.
(3) Eastern Route. Starts from Gwadar, Basima, Khuzdar, Ratodero,
Sukkur, Multan, Faisalabad, Islamabad, Havelian and KKH.
c. Pipeline. The total length of the proposed oil and gas pipeline from
Gwadar Port to Xinjiang via Pakistan is 2500 km.
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Ahsan Iqbal, as quoted in The Express Tribune of 14 October, 2015. http://tribune.com.pk/story/972553/govt-draws-flak-over- early-
harvest-projects/
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Professor Ahsan Iqbal, NDU 7 October 2016.
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PART- II
CPEC - OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
14. CPEC, being a part of BRI, offers immense opportunities to Pakistan and the
regional countries. However, its implementation also poses numerous challenges which
need to be tackled pragmatically to reap maximum benefits from this initiative. These are
analyzed in ensuing paragraphs: -
Global and Regional Perspective/ Stance
15. US. On one hand, USA is supportive of the BRI, while on the other views it as a
geopolitical response by China to its ‘pivot to Asia’ policy. US alliances with India and
major Far East countries are basically aimed at containment of China.
16. Russia and CARs. Russia is considering CPEC as a positive development and is
taking special interest in the project especially in the back drop of growing Indo -US
relations and its recent standoff with the west.
17. India. India has so far not responded positively to participate in BRI and feels that
Gwadar port would enable Pakistan to assert herself over the strategically vital energy
SLOCs.9 India has concerns regarding CPEC traversing through the territories of GB 10,
which she claims to be part of disputed J&K 11. A prosperous and strategically significant
Pakistan able to defy Indian hegemony is something India cannot digest.
18. Afghanistan. Afghanistan while acting as a proxy of India is trying to vent herself
out of land route dependency on Pakistan thereby seeking Chahbahar Port to be her
preferred choice. Moreover, NDS-RAW nexus and support to TTP leadership and Daesh
are likely to impasse the expansionary potential of CPEC.
19. Iran. Lately, Iran has shown increased willingness to participate in CPEC.
However, India-Iran-Afghanistan tri-lateral agreement, Indian development of Chahbahar
Port and arrest of Kalbashan Yadev do raise eyebrows of suspicion.
Opportunities for Pakistan
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Being only 180 nautical miles from the exit of the Straits of Hormuz.
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Chowdhry, Kalyan. 2015. Update-China and Pakistan Launch economic corridor plan worth $46 billion.
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The Economic Times. 2016. ‘India expresses concern over China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’, 14
April, http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-04-14/news/49126118_1_foreignsecretary-sujatha-singh-india-expresses-concern-
bilateral-cooperation
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e. A network of pipeline to transport liquefied natural gas and oil will also be laid
including a $2.5 billion pipeline between Gwadar and Nawabshah to
transport gas from Iran.
31. National Integration. With increasing transparency in equitable distribution of
projects with mutual consensus among all provinces, CPEC offers a ray of hope for
national unity by promoting connectivity and economic inter dependence.
Opportunities for Regional Countries
32. Upon successful completion, CPEC offers many opportunities for other countries to
iclude:-
a. EU, East Africa. China and EU, being one of the largest trading partners of
each other, are going to benefit tremendously from CPEC as it would
significantly reduce the physical distances and cost of commerce between
China EU and East Africa.
b. Russia/ CARs. CPEC will provide shortest access to Russia and energy
rich CARs to warm waters of Indian Ocean.
c. Iranian integration into CPEC will help in creating regional stability and will
assist Iran to benefit from gas exports to China.
d. India. Through CPEC India can enhance its trade and connectivity with
Afghanistan, CARs and Russia.
e. Afghanistan. CPEC can offer tremendous trade and commerce
opportunities owing to abundant oil, gas and other resources in the country.
Domestic Challenges
33. Although CPEC is being termed as a ‘game changer’ for Pakistan but presently
faces a variety of challenges that seek to undermine its beneficial impact for all involve.
Serious consideration needs to be given to address all internal challenges at priority.
34. Governance/ Corruption Issues.
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a. Good governance and management are critical factors for early and optimum
realization of CPEC. Regrettably, in Pakistan governance has always remained
weak and coupled with rampant corruption, it poses a serious challenge.
b. The information vacuum on overall terms and conditions of CPEC, including
Fiscal Management, Sovereign Guaranties and Loans’ types and payback
conditions, raises doubts on transparency. Moreover, the question about
varying and high interest rates and reason behind hastily concluded
contracts without undertaking correct bidding procedures on energy projects
requires an explanation by the government.
c. Legal/ Weak Contractual Implications . Strict adherence to rules of
business based on wholesome feasibility studies for all CPEC projects before
awarding contracts must be ensured by the Government.
35. Political Issues/ Grievances
a. Perception of giving high priority to Punjab in allocation of resources/ projects
or choice of routes, neglecting GB and KPK areas, sense of deprivation
among locals of Balochistan from CPEC benefits etcetera are some of
common reservations raised by smaller provinces.
c. Given the already lopsided nature of our Pak – China bilateral trade, our
industrial and construction sector so far lack the requisite capacity to survive
in the post-CPEC competitive market cum environment 13. Our industry may
be overrun by influx cheaper Chinese products.
d. Business interests of local communities will have to be adequately guarded
when exposed to massive Chinese presence in the country.
39. Apprehensions of Pakistan’s Business Community 14. No efforts have ostensibly
been taken by the Government for alleviating apprehensions of Pakistan’s already hard
pressed and scanty business community with regards to CPEC on aspects like: -
a. Assessment of negative impact over domestic industry by the Chinese
investment in industrial sector in Pakistan’s SEZs wherein they are offered
multiple incentives like tax free holidays etc.
b. Measures required for protection of local industry against influx of cheap
Chinese goods in local market which might render domestic production/
industries uncompetitive.
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Various engineering and technical trades as well as managerial and administrative skills would be required, necessitating planning on urgent basis
for manpower training.
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“Pain in the Heartland” Article in Dawn 3 Jan 2017
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PART - III
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PART - IV
ANALYSIS AND WAY FORWARD
Important Conclusions
50. Having analyzed the contours of CPEC, it is pertinent to draw some important
conclusions, which are:-
a. BRI is imperative for China to safeguard its strategic, economic and security
interests; while completion of CPEC is vital for the success of BRI.
b. By giving access to Indian Ocean Region, Pakistan is in fact liberating China
with far reaching strategic implications for the two countries, the region and
beyond.
c. Pragmatic foreign policy and proactive diplomacy is essential to deal with
competing strategic interests and challenges posed to the development of
CPEC.
d. CPEC will propel Pakistan in becoming an important transit state in the
world. Thereby making the country the focal point for convergence of
civilizations in the 21st Century.
e. On completion of CPEC, if Pakistan is to get even 10 % of the Chinese world
trade passing through the Corridor, it would mean a trade/ transport volume
of approximately $ 500 billion to $1 trillion 15. GDP is expected to increase
1.5% from 2016-20 and another 2.5% from 2020-25 16. Annual trade which is
expected to rise 40% by 2030 17 and 7,00,000 jobs are envisaged to be
created.
f. Most of the short to medium term external challenges to CPEC emanate from
Indian opposition and use of proxies through Afghanistan.
g. Pakistan’s existing governance issues, political landscape, fragile ethno-
sectarian fault-lines, slow socio-economic progress, capacity issues, blurred
perception management and environmental factors have the potentials to
retard progress of the project.
15
Pakistan Energy Year Book 2013, Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources,
Government of Pakistan.
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British economist, Jims O Neil, has predicted the emerging of Pakistan as the 18th global economy with US$ 3.3 trillion GDP by 2050.
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Board of Investment, Prime Minister’s Office, Government of Pakistan.
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KSA is the biggest oil supplier to China and the world’s largest oil producer.
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Discussion at HQ SSD
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Conclusion
57. CPEC will provide Beijing a direct gateway to the rest of the world. Its completion
will also open doors for much needed economic prosperity for Pakistan. Pakistan’s resolve
to overcome all challenges and ensure timely completion of the project is a testimony of
her commitment. CPEC comes to us after a decade and a half of a grueling war on terror
that has cost over 59,000 human lives and immense economic losses. We therefore owe
its success to all those innocent men, women and children who fell in this war against
terror. Our leadership now owes it to the nation to forge a new future for our next
generation. Armed Forces of Pakistan also have a significant role towards critically
important national undertaking for which we must reflect our resolve.
“I have no doubt about the bright future that awaits Pakistan when its vast
resources of men and material are fully mobilized. The road may be somewhat uphill
at present but with courage and determination we mean to build up and construct a
strong and prosperous Pakistan”
(Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah)
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