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Customers Loyalty and Effect of Customer Relationship Management

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IPASJ International Journal of Management (IIJM)
Web Site: http://www.ipasj.org/IIJM/IIJM.htm
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Volume 7, Issue 4, April 2019 ISSN 2321-645X

Customers’ Loyalty and Effect of Customer


Relationship Management
Michiko Miyamoto1
1
Department of Management Science and Engineering, Faculty of Systems Science and Technology, Akita
Prefectural University, Yurihonjo, Japan

ABSTRACT
This study investigates differences between loyal and non-loyal customers, and differences on customers’ loyalties; loyalty on
salons or loyalty on each stylist by using data of two most visited salons of the nation-wide hair-salon-chain in Japan. Cox
regression analyses on visiting intervals reveal that coupons through internet, i.e., Customer Relationship Management were
the most positive and statistically significant. It implies that CRM is an important marketing tool for this hair-salon-chain,
regardless of customers’ loyalty status. This study also reveals that loyal customers seem to have loyalties for salons
themselves, whereas non-loyal customers seem to have loyalties for particular hair stylists.
Keywords: Loyalty, Customer Relationship Management, Cox regression analyses

1. INTRODUCTION
Firms need to build strong customer loyalty by creating strong emotional bonds with their customers [5] [11].
Relationship building with customers and its management, i.e., relationship marketing, is one of the major paradigms
in marketing [6] [25]. Loyal customers are those who come back to your business again and again. They often generate
positive word of mouth, which can be an effective marketing tool. Relationship marketing is defined by its
relationships with customers and treated as a fundamental asset, therefore the customers are not taken for granted but
are instead actively and individually managed [7]. In relationship marketing, one-to-one promotions are possible for
the industries. One such example is the hair salon industry, where consumers are individually addressable, and firms
know something about each customer's preferences [20]. One-to-one promotions or one-to-one marketing is a customer
relationship management (CRM) strategy that emphasizes personalized interactions with customers. The
personalization of interactions is thought to foster greater customer loyalty and better return on marketing investment.
The concept of one-to-one marketing was developed by Peppers and Rogers (1993) as a CRM approach.
Hair salons are an example of a mature industry in Japan, appreciated the high quality of their services. According to
Yano Research Institute, Inc. [23], the size of hairdressing and beauty care market in fiscal year 2017 in Japan was
2,147.4 billion yen, 99.5% compared with the previous year, on the basis of business sales. In the beauty market, a
bipolar differentiation has been seen; those of a value-added type salon which provides technology, service, and space
which customers can forget daily life and relax, while others provide a low price which limits treatment menus and
services. The beauty salons in the intermediate zone between bipolarization, although it is based on the provision of
value-added services, differentiation for attracting customers is a big issue. In addition, as the measures to strengthen
the store sales, business to improve productivity and lead to an increase in per-customer prices, some shops are
strengthening sales of hair care goods and beauty consumer electronics and other items, so the entire market size has
been decreasing slightly.
In Japan, a customer normally needs to make an appointment to visit a hair salon. The appointment method depends on
the salon, but most people do so through email, over the phone, or through a beauty listing website like Hot Pepper
Beauty. Hot Pepper Beauty is one of Japan’s largest search and booking sites for hair or beauty salons. Searches can be
performed by specifying a desired appointment time and date or by browsing hairstyle albums, user reviews, coupons,
or other information [16]. Additionally, users who book appointments online will earn points equivalent to 2% of every
transaction. The customer can use her/his accumulated points to get a lower price for the future visit as one point is
equal to one yen. The customer can also request for a particular stylist when making a reservation, and senior stylists
usually require a small extra fee. A website like Hot Pepper Beauty enables a hair salon to not only manage the
appointments and the customers’ lists but also market the salon by CRM.
The purpose of this paper is to develop a model which helps in explaining the impact of CRM dimensions (i.e.,

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reaching customers through the internet) on customer loyalty of two of the most visited salons of a nation-wide hair-
salon-chain. This study investigates the differences between loyal and non-loyal customers, and differences on
customers’ loyalties (loyalty to salons or loyalty to each stylist) by using data of the two most visited salons of the
nation-wide hair-salon-chain in Japan.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW
Customer Relationship Management (CRM) has been considered as a key factor to success of an organization
[1][22][18] [12][8][9][21]. CRM is commonly used in the context of technology solutions and has been described as
"information-enabled relationship marketing"[19]. CRM unites the potential of relationship marketing strategies and
IT to create profitable, long-term relationships with customers and other key stakeholders [13].
Customer relationship marketing is often considered as one-to-one marketing. One-to-one marketing supports the idea
of tailoring one or more aspects of the firm’s marketing mix to the individual customer [14][15][20] and an industry
like the hair salon business is well suited for such marketing. Peppers, et al. [15] states four key steps for putting a one-
to-one marketing program to work: identifying customers, differentiating among them, interacting with them, and
customizing products or service to fit each individual customer’s needs. Shaffer and Zhang [20] investigate the
competitive effects of one-to-one promotions using a two-stage game. One-to-one promotions provide customized
promotion strategies for different customers, such as price discounts. One of the immediate, and primal, benefits of one-
to-one marketing is that it generates increased loyalty among customers [15].
Firms must shift their focus from getting new customers to retaining existing ones in order to achieve loyalty [17]. As
for loyalty, today’s brand marketers need to know whether their customers need their brand to feel emotionally
complete. They also need to know if they are setting the stage to create an emotional bond between their brand and
their customers, and, if not, they have to analyze what is standing in the way between their brand and the emotional
bond of their customers in order to manage their brand to its full potential [4].
Yim, et al. [24] provided a new approach that considers strong, affectionate bonds between customers and service
firms, and tested (1) customer-firm affection, (2) affect transfer from the customer-staff to the customer-firm level, and
(3) in different service contexts, a relational service like the hair and beauty salon business versus a transactional
service like a fast-food restaurant. They found that customers are likely to go to the same hair salon and stylist on
consecutive visits. This relationship may begin with intimacy and gradually become a long-term committed relationship
or companionate love that features both intimacy and commitment. They reveal that customer-staff relationships affect
customer-firm relationships in the hair salon.
The study on one beauty salon in Japan, Konishi [10] found that there is a difference in the loyalties for different hair
treatments, such as cuts, colors, and perms, between loyal customers and non-loyal customers, as well as differences in
visiting intervals. The probability of a hair-cut-visit could be predicted by a Cox regression model that considered
personal attributes and quality of services, but not colors or perms

3. METHOD
This research was conducted using data of twelve salons of the same hair-salon-chain in the Tokyo Metropolitan area
during the period from July 1st, 2015 to June 30th, 2017. Data includes shop information, each customer’s accounting
history and accounting statements, customer descriptions, contact stylists, and products sold. We also calculate
customers’ house-to-salon distances based on the zip code of each customer provided. The dataset contains a collection
of over 30,000 customers, including 10,559 males and 21,167 females (136 are unknown). Table 1 shows the number
of customers visited per salon. It shows that some customers are coming outside of Tokyo. Since the transportation
network has been developed in Tokyo, it seems that some customers are coming from adjoining areas.
This hair-salon-chain utilizes coupons, i.e., Hot Pepper coupons and salon coupons, to attract new and existing
customers. Fig 1. shows the number of visits for those who use coupons; customers who have used the coupons and
have visited the salon once were about 95% of the total. On the other hand, there were customers who visited more
than 34 times during the observed period. One of the major concerns is the effective use of coupons, especially those
obtained through CRM, as they encourage customers to become regulars and loyal.
Out of twelve salons, the author focuses on salon B and salon D in this study. Salon B is located in Tokyo's most
famous upmarket shopping, dining and entertainment district, featuring numerous department stores, boutiques, art
galleries, restaurants, night clubs, and cafes.
Salon D is located near the Tokyo's busiest railway station; it is served by about a dozen railway and subway lines. It is
also one of Tokyo's major stops for long-distance highway buses. It commonly refers to the large entertainment,
business and shopping area.

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There are three types of top stylists at this hair-salon-chain, which can charge more fees, i.e., Stylist + ¥ 540, Director
+ ¥ 1,080, and Executive + ¥ 1,640. The monthly average number of customers per top five stylists for salon B and
salon D are shown in Table 2, respectively. The senior-level stylists hold more customers’ designations.

Table 1: Number of customers visited per salon


Salon A Salon B Salon C Salon D Salon E Salon F
23 wards 956 1,163 1,694 2,194 1,165 1,148
Tokyo
Municipality 162 63 63 427 48 16
Kanto Kanagawa 281 105 57 238 98 55
District Chiba 94 148 82 134 44 13
Saitama 112 130 433 213 54 5
North Kanto 27 31 18 37 11 1
Outside the Kanto District 71 80 47 126 46 9
Unknown 987 987 1,206 1,525 968 720
Total 2,690 2,707 3,600 4,894 2,434 1,967
Salon G Salon H Salon I Salon J Salon K Salon L
23 wards 819 39 842 15 71 312
Tokyo
Municipality 42 9 68 3 21 488
Kanto Kanagawa 358 874 25 1,232 1,707 21
District Chiba 6 7 15 0 14 7
Saitama 5 5 23 2 6 19
North Kanto 2 0 5 2 2 4
Outside the Kanto District 9 21 19 7 24 11
Unknown 1,252 1,215 336 436 1,223 407
Total 2,493 2,170 1,333 1,697 3,068 1,269

Figure 1 Number of visits for those who use coupons

3.1 Cox regression


Cox regression (or Cox proportional hazards regression) is a method for investigating the effect of several variables
upon the time of a specified event takes to happen [2]. Censoring is present when information on time to the outcome
event is not available for all customers. Customers are said to be censored when information on time to event is not
available due to the non-occurrence of the outcome event. Point censoring occurs when despite continuous monitoring
of the outcome event, the customer does not follow up or the event does not occur within the study duration. It is also
known as right censoring which can be either end-of study censoring or loss-to follow-up censoring. In this study, the

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observation period is the non-visiting period (visit interval) from the last visit date to the next visit date, and the
censoring is determined when the customers stop visiting the salon after they visited once during the observation
period.

Table 2: Number of customers per top five stylists

Salon B Salon D
M onthly Monthly
average average
Stylists number of Stylists number of
customers customers
(times) (times)
s4 (Executive) 573 s43 (Executive) 407
s33 (Executive) 501 s40 (Executive) 342
s35 (Executive) 486 s5 (Executive) 308
s150 (Stylist) 462 s9 (Executive) 284
s60 (Director) 386 s38 (Director) 237

Let t be a non-negative random variable representing the waiting time until the occurrence of an event (a visit to the
salon). The Cox proportional hazards regression model can be written as follows:
… (1)

where h(t) is the expected hazard at time t, h0(t) is the baseline hazard and represents the hazard when all of the

predictors (or independent variables) , are equal to zero. Notice that the predicted hazard (i.e., h(t)), or the
rate of suffering the event of interest in the next instant, is the product of the baseline hazard (h0(t)) and the exponential
function of the linear combination of the predictors. Thus, the predictors have a multiplicative or proportional effect on
the predicted hazard.
The hazard ratio is used to compare the ratio of these two expected hazards:

which does not depend on time, t. Thus, the hazard is proportional over time.
Tests of hypothesis are used to assess whether there are statistically significant associations between predictors and
time to event. The author defines those who visited the salon more than ten times during the observation period
for hair practices and product purchases as loyal customers, and those visited less than ten times as non-loyal
customers.
3.2 Kaplan-Meier Estimate
Kaplan-Meier estimate is one of the best options to be used to measure the fraction of subjects not visiting the salon for
a certain amount of time after last visit. The graph of S(t) against t is usually called the survival curve. In this study,
the survival curve would be a visiting interval curve. The Kaplan–Meier method can be used to estimate this curve from
the observed visiting times without the assumption of an underlying probability distribution. The method is based on
the basic idea that the probability of visiting k or more periods from visiting the salon is a product of the k observed
visiting rates for each period (i.e. the cumulative proportion visiting), given by the following:

S(k) = p1 × p2 × p3 × ... × pk (2)

Here, p1 is the proportion visiting the first period, p2 is the proportion visiting beyond the second period conditional on
having visited up to the second period, and so on. The proportion visiting period i having visited up to period i is given
by:

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(3)

where is the number visits at the beginning of the period and is the number of not visiting within the period.

4. RESULTS
Cox multivariate regression analyses were performed to predict the visiting interval status from price customer paid,
number of visits, age, gender, stylist designation, type of services (cuts, perms, and straight hair), product purchase
(shampoo), use of coupons (Hot Pepper coupons or the salon’s original coupons), and house-to-salon distance, as salon
location is regarded as a retailer’s most costly and long-term marketing-mix decision [3]. Hot Pepper coupons are
considered as a proxy variable for CRM, since it is one of the marketing tools of the salon through these internet. Since
fewer customers provided their addresses (a “zip code” is used as a proxy variable for address), there is less data
available pertaining to house-to-salon distance. Items with missing values were omitted from the analyses. The three
criteria for statistical significance were p < 0.001, p < 0.05, and p < 0.10. Time intervals were calculated from records
of customers’ last day of visits during the observation period.
4.1 Salon B
As for loyal customers of Salon B, the Cox multivariate regression analyses revealed that customers who visit more
often have designated stylists, have haircuts, buy shampoo, have Hot Pepper coupons, were associated with a shorter
interval between visits. House-to-salon distance is negative and not significant. The result suggests that distance is not
related to salon visits, i.e., loyal customers are coming from distance places in order to receive salon services. A
negative parameter estimate of gender implies that male visits have a shorter interval than female. Data without house-
to-salon distance suggests that older loyal customers tend to visit salon B in shorter intervals (see Table 3).

Table 3: Results for loyal customers: Salon B


Salon B royal (w/ distance) Salon B royal (w/o distance)
Number of observations read 1,600 1,600
Number of observations used 595 1,153

Null hypothesis: β=0


ChiSq Pr > ChiSq ChiSq Pr > ChiSq
Likelihood 659.4908 <.0001 1146.9421 <.0001

Analysis of maximum likelihood Estimate


Variable Parameter Hazard Ratio Parameter Hazard Ratio
Estimate Estimate
Price -3.84E-07** 1 -1.9209E-07 1
Number of visits 0.02053*** 1.021 0.01486*** 1.015
Age 0.00205 1.002 0.00476** 1.005
Gender -0.30939** 0.734 -0.40406*** 0.668
Stylist designation - - 0.17551 1.192
Cuts 0.14334*** 1.154 0.14169*** 1.152
Colors 0.00358 1.004 0.00635 1.006
Perms -0.00127 0.999 -0.0076 0.992
Shampoo 0.07008*** 1.073 0.06828*** 1.071
Straight hair 0.04125 1.042 0.04524 1.046
Hot pepper coupon 2.58968*** 13.326 1.40468*** 4.074
Salon coupon -2.63987*** 0.071 -1.08027*** 0.34
Distance to the salon -0.0007499 0.999 - -
***significant at 1%, **significant at 5%

The result for non-loyal customers for salon B suggests that customers who have designated stylists have colored hair
with a Hot Pepper coupon were associated with shorter interval of visit. House-to-salon distance is negative and not
significant. Data without house-to-salon distance suggest that customers who visit more often, have designated stylists,
and have Hot Pepper coupon, were associated with shorter interval of visits (see Table 4).

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4.2 Salon D
As for loyal customers of Salon D, the Cox multivariate regression analyses revealed that customers who have haircuts,
buy shampoo, and have a Hot Pepper coupon, were associated with shorter interval of visits. House-to-salon distance is
negative and not significant. A negative parameter estimate of gender implies that males visit in shorter interval than
females. Data without house-to-salon distance suggests that older loyal customers tend to visit salon D in shorter
intervals (see Table 5). The result for non-loyal customers for salon D suggests that customers who have cuts and have
a Hot Pepper coupon were associated with shorter interval of visit. House-to-salon distance is positive but not
significant. Data without house-to-salon distance suggest that customers who have designated stylists, have colored
hair with a Hot Pepper coupon were associated with shorter interval of visits (see Table 4).
4.3 Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimates
The author compares KM curves for two different groups of subjects, i.e., male vs. female, loyal vs. non-loyal. A left
figure of Fig. 2 compares the visiting interval pattern for males and females and shows that males visit salons in shorter
time intervals compared to females for Salon B. A right figure of Fig.2 compares those for loyal and non-loyal
customers which shows loyal customers visit the salon in shorter time intervals. The similar results are obtained for
Salon D.

5. CONCLUSION
Table 6 summarizes and compares loyal and non-loyal customers’ visiting interval results of this study. The most
positive and significant result for both salons, regardless of loyal and non-loyal customers, is the relationship between
visiting intervals and Hot Pepper coupons, i.e., CRM. Many customers, both loyal and non-loyal, visit both salons
using Hot Pepper coupons. It implies that CRM is an important marketing tool for this hair-salon-chain, regardless of
customers’ loyalty status. Distance has little impact on visit frequency.
Customers visit both salons despite the distances. The reasons for customers’ visit may require further study, whether
they may be attracted by the beauty salon itself or by a particular stylist, or whether the development of the
transportation network in the Metropolitan Tokyo district makes their trips to the salon easier.
The ratio of purchase of goods, such as shampoo, is higher for females, but males visit more frequently. Men tend to
keep their hair short which may result in frequent visits. Each salon should develop different approaches for males and
females. For females, each salon should develop measures to shorten visiting intervals, while for males, measures to
raise product purchase rate should be considered.

Table 4: Results for non-loyal customers: Salon B


Salon B non-royal (w/ distance) Salon B non-royal (w/o distance)
Number of observations read 1,898 1,898
Number of observations used 134 1,136

Null hypothesis: β=0


ChiSq Pr > ChiSq ChiSq Pr > ChiSq
Likelihood 22.594 0.0202 59.7712 <.0001

Analysis of maximum likelihood Estimate


Variable Parameter Hazard Ratio Parameter Hazard Ratio
Estimate Estimate
Price 3.00711E-06 1 -3.5449E-06 1
Number of visits -0.17208 0.842 0.10888** 1.115
Age -0.01751 0.983 0.0005066 1.001
Gender -0.14213 0.868 -0.31444*** 0.73
Stylist designation 0.98076* 2.666 0.32384** 1.382
Cuts 0.16384 1.178 0.05041 1.052
Colors 0.54307* 1.721 0.02191 1.022
Perms -0.39196 0.676 -0.03332 0.967
Shampoo -0.11833 0.888 0.00581 1.006
Straight hair - - 0.28159 1.325
Hot pepper coupon 1.158*** 3.184 0.87791*** 2.406
Salon coupon - - - -
Distance to the salon -0.00548 0.995 - -
***significant at 1%, **significant at 5%, *significant at 10%

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Table 5: Results for loyal customers: Salon D


Salon D royal (w/ distance) Salon D royal (w/o distance)
Number of observations read 1,600 1,600
Number of observations used 644 1,327

Null hypothesis: β=0


ChiSq Pr > ChiSq ChiSq Pr > ChiSq
Likelihood 509.3941 <.0001 875.7715 <.0001

Analysis of maximum likelihood Estimate


Variable Parameter Hazard Ratio Parameter Hazard Ratio
Estimate Estimate
Price 2.98005E-07 1 -1.0678E-08 1
Number of visits -0.00452 0.995 0.00194 1.002
Age -0.00322 0.997 -0.00521* 0.995
Gender -0.30945*** 0.734 -0.29019*** 0.748
Stylist designation 0.16314 1.177 0.23867 1.27
Cuts 0.20048*** 1.222 0.17391*** 1.19
Colors 0.00874 1.009 0.01231 1.012
Perms -0.04778** 0.953 -0.03301** 0.968
Shampoo 0.04855*** 1.05 0.05128*** 1.053
Straight hair 0.04407 1.045 0.02562 1.026
Hot pepper coupon 0.13921** 1.149 0.19244*** 1.212
Salon coupon 0.03864 1.039 0.02076 1.021
Distance to the salon -0.0002288 1 - -
***significant at 1%, **significant at 5%, *significant at 10%

Table 6: Results for non-loyal customers: Salon D


Salon D non-royal (w/ distance) Salon D non-royal (w/o distance)
Number of observations read 3,502 3,502
Number of observations used 344 2,628

Null hypothesis: β=0


ChiSq Pr > ChiSq ChiSq Pr > ChiSq
Likelihood 22.3976 0.0495 78.181 <.0001

Analysis of maximum likelihood Estimate


Variable Parameter Hazard Ratio Parameter Hazard Ratio
Estimate Estimate
Price -9.5906E-07 1 -1.6128E-06 1
Number of visits 0.01283 1.013 0.04757 1.049
Age -0.00602 0.994 0.00196 1.002
Gender -0.41317** 0.662 -0.39905*** 0.671
Stylist designation -0.0879 0.916 0.27127*** 1.312
Cuts 0.12101* 1.129 0.04986 1.051
Colors 0.20705 1.23 0.11872** 1.126
Perms 0.00151 1.002 -0.10381 0.901
Shampoo 0.09711 1.102 0.00785 1.008
Straight hair 0.50765 1.661 0.07962 1.083
Hot pepper coupon 0.31316* 1.368 0.20698*** 1.23
Salon coupon 0.00804 1.008 -0.06058 0.941
Distance to the salon 0.00265 1.003 - -
***significant at 1%, **significant at 5%, *significant at 10%

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Figure 2 Salon B: Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimates:


Visiting Interval Curve of Loyal Customers by Gender (left)
Visiting Interval Curve of Loyal Customers by Loyal and non-Loyal (right)

This study reveals that loyal customers seem to have loyalties for the salons themselves, whereas non-loyal customers
seem to have loyalties for particular stylists. The stylist designations are statistically significant for non-loyal customers
in particular. Promotion of senior and skilled stylists may help to attract new customers and may help non-loyal
customers to become loyal ones.

Acknowledgments
This paper is based on the data analysis competition of the 2017 sponsored by the Joint Association Study Group of
Management Science, in Japan. We are sincerely thankful for their providing data and giving us valuable opportunities.

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AUTHOR

Michiko Miyamoto studied at the State University of New York College at Buffalo, where she received her
Bachelor of Science degree (magna cum laude). She received her MBA from the University of California at Los
Angeles. After a 7-year career with Goldman Sachs and Company, obtained her PhD further to a thesis about
Econometrical Approaches to Economic and Strategic Management Studies at the University of Tsukuba, Graduate
School of Systems Management. In 2008, she joined the Department of Management Science and Engineering at the
Akita Prefectural University.

Volume 7, Issue 4, April 2019 Page 28

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