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In this course your project report is based on the portfolio management game you would play for 10
weeks by building and then managing 4 portfolios. Initially in each portfolio 100 million Rs would be
invested and then for 10 weeks you would calculate weekly %age rate of return (Rp) on each portfolio.
You would weekly submit to TA a report about rate of return earned by each of the 4 portfolios
showing how you calculated weekly Rp. How would you do that is explained below in some detail.
After 10 weekly report have been submitted, you have data of 10 weekly Rps of each portfolio. You
would use that data to calculate weekly SDp, then convert it into SDp for 10 week, you would also
calculate Rp for 10 week holding period, and then further calculations would be done by you as
explained in the following pages.
Please note you can read below separate instruction for calculating weekly Rp of 4 portfolios: 1. active
portfolio, 2. Passive portfolio, 3. Levered passive portfolio, and 4. Index (market) portfolio. Please do
read those instructions carefully while calculating and reporting weekly Rp of 4 portfolios to your TA
according to the dates given the schedule below. Please use closing share prices reported in the
newspaper of the specific day mentioned below.
Begin Week 1 of the project by using closing share prices reported in Tuesdays, 2nd Feb 2021
newspaper, these are prices of shares on the last trade done on Monday, Feb 1, 2021 and are
reported in Tuesday, Feb 2 newspapers.
Then for the three portfolios namely; Passive, Levered Passive and Market, for the end of
week 1 use the price published in the newspaper of Tuesday, 9th Feb 2021. For Active
portfolio , you would do trading once a week using closing prices published in Saturday’s
newspapers.
And similarly for week 2 the beginning prices are the same as the ending prices of week 1
(published in Tuesday,9th Feb newspapers ).
The end prices of week 2 are to be taken from Tuesday, 16th Feb newspapers.
For the Active Portfolio
o You begin construction on the same day as other portfolios i.e. of Tuesday, 2 nd Feb and
week 1 ends using prices of Tuesday, 9 th Feb newspaper. The beginning MV of portfolio
on this date would be equal to:
o No of shares of Co K * purchase price
o No of shares of Co J * purchase price
o No of shares of Co S * purchase price
o No of shares of Co L * purchase price
o No of shares of Co T * purchase price
o And you are advised not to invest all 100 million in stocks while building active portfolio
on Feb 2, rather you should keep some cash , such as 100, 000 Rs, so that you can on
the trading day, Saturday, buy whole number of shares. Usually shares are bought and
sold in whole lot of 50 share. If you order odd lot , say 34 shares, then broker charges
higher commission per share.
Schedule
Begin End Trading in Weekly
Report
Active Submissio
portfolio only n
o You are allowed to buy & sell shares in the active portfolio once every week on Fridays
using closing prices published in Saurday’s newspapers. Do that trading only ONCE
DURING A WEEK using the closing prices published in Saturdays newspaper.
o For week1 the trading would be done only on Saturday, 6th Feb .
o The ending composition of portfolio on Tuesday,9th Feb would be composed of shares
you have in your portfolio on Tuesday, 9th Feb and these would be same as you had on
Saturday after doing buying and selling on Saturday 6th Feb.
o Calculate the wealth at the end of week 1 ending MV of TA of portfolio. Please note
since there are no loans taken so this is also Ending OE. Ending MV would be
calculated using no of shares and prices on Tuesday 9th Feb
o For week 2 beginning MV of Active Portfolio would be the same as ending MV of Active
Portfolio in week1.
Since in active portfolio there are no borrowed funds so TA = OE and TL =0; and MV of TA can be used
in place of OE to calculate weekly Rp
What you would do with this raw data of 10 weeks is explained below. You would do all those things
mentioned below in your final project report . That includes using 4 portfolio evaluation methods:
As t-bills of 12 months maturity are giving slightly higher than 7 % per year yield in January, therefore
all groups should use 10 week yield of t-bills assuming annual yield of risk free asset is 7%.
So for 10 weeks risk free percentage rate of return , Rf = (7% / 52 weeks) * 10 weeks = 1.3% for 10
weeks,
Using weekly data of 10 Rp of passive portfolio, you have calculated SD as 3%. This is weekly SD,
you need to convert it to SD for 10 week holding period so that both return and risk data is
available for the 10-week holding period (risk)
You multiply 3% with under root of 10: that is 3% * under root of 10 = 3% * 3.162277 = 9.486, you
can round it to 9.5% , it is SD p for 10 week holding period or total risk of passive portfolio for 10
week holding period.
Now you have data to calculate Sharpe Ratio as shown below:
It means excess portfolio return per unit of total risk was 1.14% for the passive portfolio.
That is, if total risk of passive portfolio was 1% (SDp) then excess return of passive portfolio, that
is, (Rp – Rf) was 1.14% during this 10-week holding period
Similarly for the other 3 portfolios you would calculate Sharpe Ratios. Then rank 4 portfolios from
first to 4th based on this ratio
For example you got Sharpe Ratios and gave them ranks as shown below:
Passive Portfolio = 1.14% Fourth
Passive Levered = 3% First
Active Portfolio = 2.5% Second
Index (market) Portfolio = 2% Third
2. Treynor Ratio for each of 4 portfolio and their ranking on the basis of this
ratio
You were taught that beta = COV p, M / VAR M , it is a ratio. So for each portfolio you use 10
weekly Rp observations to calculate its COV with M, whereas M refers to index portfolio which
was one of the 4 portfolios you were playing with in this project. You would also calculate using 10
weekly Rp observations of each portfolio, COV of each of the 4 portfolios returns with the returns
of index portfolio because index portfolio is your M, the market portfolio. You will also calculate
using 10 weekly Rp observation of index portfolio, its VAR, and it is your VAR M. Then You can
calculate passive portfolio beta as = COV passive , Market / VAR Market . suppose COV passive , M = 150 and
VAR M is 100, so beta of passive portfolio = 150 /100 = 1.5. Similarly you will calculate betas of the
other 3 portfolios, and remember that beta of index portfolio would come ONE by definition
because:
BM= COV M,M / VAR M = VARM / VAR M = 1
3. Differential return from CML (capital market line) for passive
portfolio =
Actual Rp - estimated Rp from CML equation
Estimated Rp Passive Portfolio = Rf + [ (RM - Rf) / SDM] * SD passive
Note that actual 10 week holding period Rp of index portfolio you calculated while doing Sharpe
and Treynor Ratios, suppose it is 11%, this is your R M. And index portfolio’s 10 week SD is 5%, you
calculated this when doing Sharpe Ratio above; and this is your SD M for 10-week. And actual 10
week holding period Rp of passive portfolio was 15% and 10 week SD of passive portfolio was
9.5%, both of which you have already calculated for Sharpe Ratio calculations above. so you have
the required data and you insert data in CML equation to estimate theoretical RP for 10 week on
your passive portfolio
Estimated Rp passive portfolio = Rf + [ (R M - Rf) / SD M] * SD of passive
portfolio
= 1.3% + [(11% - 1.3% ) / 5%] * 9.5%
= 1.3 + [1.94] * 9.5
= 1.3 + 18.43
= 19.73%
Now you would conclude that actual risk adjusted return performance of passive portfolio was
much worse than expected performance for the 9.5% SD (total risk) level.
In other words, the theory (CML) says that a portfolio whose total risk is 9.5% should earn 19.73%
but passive portfolio whose risk is also 9.5% actually earned during these 10 weeks only 15%; so
passive portfolio was beaten by the market on as risk adjusted basis.
In the same fashion you would calculate estimated Rp of each of the 3 remaining portfolios and
then differential Rp of each of the three portfolio. Then rank as first , second, third , and fourth
your 4 portfolios based on their differential Rp from CML.
Please note for index portfolio estimated R M would come out same as its 10 week holding period
actual Rp because in CML equation you enter as R M actual Rp of index portfolio, similarly as SD P in
CML you enter SD of index portfolio which is already there as SD M also. Therefore two SDMs would
cancel out each other, and 2 Rfs would also cancel out leaving you on right hand side with R M and
that would now be estimated Rp of Index portfolio. Therefore REMEMBER that for the Index
portfolio estimated and actual Rp would be same as it is your M, so its differential return from CML
would be ZERO by definition ALWAYS
Once you have estimated differential returns of all 4 portfolios you would rank them, with higher
differential return being given higher rank, For example you calculated differential returns from
CML and ranked them as follows:
Passive Portfolio = -4.73% third
Passive Levered = 9.8% First
Active Portfolio = -4% fourth
Index (market) Portfolio = 0% second (always zero by definition)
You would say passive and active portfolios were beaten by the market on a risk adjusted basis.
Why we say ”beaten by the market”? Because CML line is constructed by taking 2 dots on the
graph and joining them to draw the straight line called CML: one dot where Rf is 1.3% on vertical
axis and SD of Rf zero on horizontal axis. The 2 nd dot on graph paper is placed where the R M (10
week holding period Rp of index portfolio) is on vertical axis and SD M (10 week SD of index
portfolio) is on horizontal axis (in this example RM was 11% and SDM was 5%). Then these 2 dots are
joined to draw straight line, it is called CML. Since actual data of Rp and SDp of index portfolio is
used to draw the line , therefore differential return of index portfolio from the CML would always
be zero. But other three portfolios are likely to have differential returns from CML. If differential
return of a portfolio is positive then the portfolio has beaten the market on a risk adjusted basis
and its dot falls above the CML line on the graph paper; on the other hand if differential return of a
portfolio is negative, as we saw in case of passive portfolio above in our hypothetical example,
then we say the portfolio was beaten by the market on a risk adjusted basis, and its dot would be
placed below the CML line
You Rank all 4 portfolio from first to fourth on the basis of their differential return from CML
Suppose 10 week holding period Rp of index portfolio is 11%, R M. And its beta is B M , which, as you
know, is always one by definition. And actual 10 week holding period Rp of passive was 15% and
its beta was 1.5. You already calculated 10 week holding period Rps and betas of all 4 portfolios
while doing Treynor ratio, so you have the data use it now . Inserting data in SML equation (that is
CAPM), you get estimated Rp of passive from SML as:
on the SML graph, the dot for passive portfolio would be where on horizontal axis is beta 1.5 and
on vertical axis is Rp 15; but the SML line passing over the beta 1.5 would have a reading on
vertical axis 15.25%, that is slightly higher than 15%, so the dot for passive portfolio would be
placed slightly below the SML line ; and you would conclude that actual risk adjusted return
performance of passive portfolio was slightly worse than expected performance based on CAPM
theory suggested for the portfolio whose relevant risk level is 1.5 .
Why we say ”beaten by the market”? Because SML line is constructed by placing 2 dots on the
graph and joining them to draw the straight line called SML: one dot where Rf is 1.3% (Rf rate of
return) on vertical axis and beta of Rf is zero on horizontal axis. The 2 nd dot on graph paper is
placed where the RM (10 week holding period Rp of index portfolio) is on vertical axis and B M (beta
of index portfolio) is on horizontal axis; and B M is always ONE by definition as we learned
earlier, while RM in this example was 11%. Then these 2 dots are joined to draw straight line, it is
called SML. This line extends till infinity so you show it extending until the end of your graph paper
page.
Please not data of actual 10 week holding period Rp of index portfolio was used and beta of
index portfolio is one by definition, and these data items were used to place the second dot on
graph paper. while first dot was made where Rf 1.3% on vertical axis and zero Beta of Rf on
horizontal axis was used. Joining the two dots gave the line , therefore differential return of index
portfolio from the SML would always be zero. But other three portfolios are likely to have
differential returns from SML. If differential return of a portfolio from SML is positive then the
portfolio has beaten the market on a risk adjusted basis and its dot falls above the SML; while if
differential return of a portfolio is negative, as we saw in case of passive portfolio above in our
hypothetical example, then we say the portfolio was beaten by the market on a risk adjusted basis,
and its dot would be placed below the SML line
You Rank all 4 portfolio from first to fourth on the basis of their differential return from SML
Please find similarly differential return from SML of other 3 portfolios. Please NOTE AGAIN: index
portfolio by definition would have expected return estimated from SML same as its actual 10 week
holding period return, therefore its differential return from SML would be ZERO ALWAYS
Please also show for each portfolio the total risk bifurcated into
non-diversifiable risk = ( B2 portfolio * VAR M ) , Note VARM is VAR of Index portfolio
and diversifiable risks = VAR e portfolio
and total risk of portfolio = VAR portfolio
Please note you would calculate total risk and non diversifiable risk from the data you have already
calculated for of Sharpe and Treynor ratios, but you would not be able to calculate directly
diversifiable risk of any portfolio ( VAR e portfolio ), you would calculate it indirectly as
Diversifiable risk = total risk - non- diversifiable risk
Also show R 2 of each portfolio as :
non-diversifiable risk / total risk = ( B2 portfolio * VAR M ) / VAR portfolio
Please use weekly data of returns that you calculated in your weekly reports for this bifurcation of
total risk into non diversifiable and diversifiable risks, so calculate for this purpose VARs of all
portfolios with weekly data, do not use 10 week holding period SD that you already have
calculated for Sharpe ratio, rather use weekly SD calculated from 10 weekly Rps; and then take its
square to get VAR of each portfolio. You have already calculated beta of each portfolio for Treynor
ratio above now use it, so you are all set to show the bifurcation of total risk into non diversifiable
and diversifiable risks.
Also show correlation of return of each portfolio with market
portfolio (index) as under root of R-squared
Instructions for each of the 4 Portfolios weekly
Rp Calculations
Instructions For The Active Portfolio
100 mil Rs I give as your OE, you buy shares of a few cos, say 5 cos. Buying is done in lots of 50 shares,
give brief reason for buying those companies.
Please keep some cash , say 5 million initially, you wont be able to invest exactly all 100 million in
shares because buying in lots of 50 shares. Therefore some of 100 million should be kept as cash, it
appears as an asset in your portfolio
All groups do trading only on one same day in this portfolio, Friday, then use closing prices of Friday to
buy and sell, take these prices from Saturday’s newspaper.
On Friday why some shares were sold and others were bought, you must give brief reasons in coupe of
lines for dropping a co from your portfolio, for adding share of another co in your active portfolio.
Each week , starting from beginning of week one, make balance sheet of portfolio. In beginning of week
one, it would look like:
TA = TL + OE
100 = 0 + 100
TA = TL + OE
103 = 0 + 103
= 0.03 or 3%
TA of portfolio means shares at their current price on the last day of the respective week plus any cash
left
Hypothetical example
(millions)
PIA 1 20 20
PTC 2 30 60
Cash 20
Total 100
TA 100
TL 0
OE 100
PTC 2 40 80
Engro 0.5 30 15
cash 25
TA 120
TL 0
OE 120
Rp end of week one = (OE end - OE Beg) / OE Beg
Engro 0.5 20 10
Prices changed between trading day and the last day of week, so MV of stocks were
cash 25
Total 106
TA 106
TL 0
OE 106
Rp end of week 2 = (OE end of week 2 - OE Beg of week 2) / OE Beg of week 2
Now carry on in the same way for the 10 weeks, and submit weekly Rp of your portfolios with
calculation
like the one shown above. Do not for get each weekly report has 1%age point out of total 100 fot the
course
but you may end up with some cash after investing in shares in lots of 50 shares. Assume you earn 10%
per year, that is
0.1/52 = 0.00192 or 0.192% per week interest by depositing this left over cash in the bank. You would
invest once in shares and won’t change those shares through out 10 weeks. So it is passively managed
portfolio. Every week prices of shares in your portfolio would change and initial 100 mil may become
102 mil end of week one, 97 mil end of week 2, and 107 mil end of week 3, and so on until 10th week.
You are required to calculate Rp (%age return) of portfolio every week as shown below
Rp for week 1 = ( End MV of portfolio - Beginning MV of portfolio) / Begin MV . Note as there are 0 TL
so TA are equal to OE
Do prepare balance sheet of portfolio at the beginning and end of each week.
Rp for any week is = profit / initial investment or begin OE, and profit = End OE - Beg OE
Hypothetical Example
Beginning of Week one
Co No of Shares price in Rs MV
cash 4,000,000
MV of Portfolio 100,000,000
TA = TL + OE
100,000,000 = 0 + 100,000,000
Co No of Shares price in Rs MV
cash 7,680
MV of Portfolio 89,257,680
beg cash * 0.00192 = end cash as cash in bank is earning interest
TA = TL + OE
93,257,680 0 93,257,680
End of Week 2
Co No of Shares price in Rs MV
cash 7,695
MV of Portfolio 108,807,695
TA TL + OE
112,815,375 0 112,815,375
only prices of those shares would change and result in new MV of portfolio end of each week.
Cash in the bank earns interest every week, it is also treated as one of the asset in your portfolio.
In this portfolio your OE is 100 million Rs (owner's equity). You have levered portfolio, but do not
change shares once bought , you keep those shares in your portfolio for 10 weeks.
Just see every week their prices would change resulting in new MV of shares in your portfolio.
Pay every week on 50 mil Rs bank loan interest = 50 mil * 0.2/52 = 0.1923 mil Rs interest. So beginning
of week one keep some cash in hand so you can pay weekly interest fo the next 10 weeks, which is
about 0.1923 *10 =1.923 mil Rs total for 10 weeks. So keep at least 2 mil cash in portfolio
For simplicity do not assume you are earning any interest on this cash kept in the bank. Every week
this cash amount would reduce as you will pay interest on 50 mil loan to the bank.
Each week , starting from beginning of week one, make balance sheet of portfolio. In beginning of week
one it would look like; TA = 150; TL 50; OE 100 . TA would include shares you bought and cash
End of week one balance sheet may look like: TA= 159, TL= 50, OE = 109
TA of portfolio means shares at their current price on the last day of the respective week plus any cash
left after paying weekly
interest to bank on 50 mil loan , which as shown earlier would be 0.1923 mil Rs every week
Hypothetical example
Beginning of week One Portfolio
PIA 30 mil Rs
Engro 30
PTC 30
UBL 30
MCB 25
cash 5
MV of TA 150 mil Rs
TA 150
TL 50
OE 100
PIA 32 mil Rs
Engro 25
PTC 40
UBL 30
MCB 28
cash 4.807
MV of TA 159.807 mil Rs
TA 159.807
TL 50
OE 109.807
Rp end of week one = (OE end - OE Beg) / OE Beg
PIA 40 mil Rs
Engro 20
PTC 30
UBL 50
MCB 30
cash 4.615
MV of TA 174.615 mil rs
cash at the end of week 2 =cash in the beg of week - interest paud for the week = 4.807 mil Rs -
0.1923 mil Rs = 4.615 mil Rs
TA 174.615
TL 50
OE 124.615
Now carry on in the same way for the 10 weeks, and submit weekly Rp of your portfolios with
calculation
like the one shown above. Do not forget each weekly report has 1%age point out of total 100 points of
the course
Your 100 million grew by the end of week 1 by this %age, and became 100*(1 + 0.0209) =102.09 mil Rs
You can double check Rp for week 1 as :( OE ending - OE beginning) / OE Beginning = (102.09 -100) /
100 = 0.0209 or 2.09 %
Your wealth, OE end of Week 2 = OE end week 1*(1 + Rp week of week 2). 102.09(1 +0. 0205) = 104.64
mil Rs
Suppose End of week 3 KSE -100 index is at 41,000. Rp for week 3 = (41,000 - 45,000) / 45,000 = -0.089
or -8.9%
Your wealth, OE end of Week 3 = OE end week 2*(1 + Rp week of week 3). 104.64(1 + - 0.089) = 95.32
mil Rs
And so on , you would calculate Rp for 10 weeks and also show End OE at the end of each week.