Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Monthly Update
October 8, 2020 Strong pickup in business for key players
Nov-19
May-20
May-19
Sep -19
Sep -20
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
IPru Life has been seeing very gradual path towards recovery with it still
continuing to be a laggard and de-growing by 24% YoY and still is down
38% YoY on 6MFY21 basis. ULIP segment still remains out of flavor, while
overall volumes also continue to struggle with no of policies sold is still
trending downwards by 18-20%.
TATA AIA continues to surprise with strong growth of 20-30% in last 6-7
months with steady increase in ticket size of 12% YTD and 17% YoY for
H1FY21. Similar trends have been seen in Max Life which also continues
to see recovery in growth at 4% YoY in 6MFY21. ABSLI & BALIC also saw
decent growth of 36% YoY & 16% YoY respectively in individual business
for Sep’20.
Private players gain share but LIC retains share on 6MFY21 basis: Private
players regained some lost ground in Sep’20 in overall APE with 720bps of
market share gain reaching 55%, although LIC continues to dominate with 52%
share on 6MFY21 basis. HDLI through its strong growth has been gaining
Pritesh Bumb
priteshbumb@plindia.com | 91-22-66322232 market share from last few months with SBILI & IPru losing share. Although
Aashi Rara SBILI still dominates market at 12% (10.5% in 6MFY21) as compared to 9.5%
aashirara@plindia.com | for HDLI (9% in 6MFY21). Similar trends have been on individual APE basis
and amongst private players.
October 8, 2020 1
Life Insurance
Overall New Business APE has been steady but still subdued
New biz. APE – Barring HDLI other large players still witnessing de-growth; mid-sized players growing well
RN Life
PNB Met Life
HDFC Life
ICICI Pru
BALIC
Tata AIA
Max Life
SBI Life
Jan-20
May-20
Mar-20
Mar-19
Jul-19
Jul-20
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Nov-19
Nov-18
October 8, 2020 2
Life Insurance
New biz. sales numbers (APE) and growth – Most private players see strong growth in Sep’20
Life Insurer (Rs in million) Sep-20 YoY gr. MoM gr. FY21 YTD YTD gr. FY20 YoY gr.
Industry Total 75,508 7.4% 1.6% 359,174 -6.2% 885,562 10.1%
LIC 34,382 11.1% -12.2% 185,455 -2.6% 440,668 15.8%
Total Private 41,126 4.5% 16.9% 173,720 -9.7% 444,894 5.0%
Aditya Birla Sun Life 1,881 29.7% 27.9% 8,603 13.6% 18,793 -0.9%
Aegon Life 45 -27.7% 21.5% 215 -40.1% 711 -29.7%
Aviva Life 113 17.7% 11.2% 591 24.0% 1,160 -31.3%
Bajaj Allianz Life 2,049 6.1% 8.5% 9,807 6.9% 22,272 9.6%
Bharti Axa Life 439 -13.3% 17.5% 2,135 -24.9% 6,130 0.4%
Canara HSBC OBC Life 939 -21.4% 32.3% 3,435 -24.3% 10,098 5.4%
Pramerica Life 110 -29.2% 17.0% 589 -39.4% 1,857 -47.7%
Edelweiss Tokio Life 375 1.0% 31.0% 1,511 12.8% 3,270 -6.3%
Exide Life 523 -24.2% 30.3% 2,097 -17.9% 6,395 -4.9%
Future Generali Life 225 -35.8% 14.1% 1,164 -21.9% 3,748 -1.9%
HDFC Life 7,206 45.3% 10.8% 32,367 3.4% 68,085 19.2%
ICICI Prudential Life 4,615 -22.8% 7.0% 19,465 -38.0% 68,582 -5.1%
IDBI Federal Life 311 1.4% 46.1% 962 -34.6% 2,974 -35.7%
IndiaFirst Life 863 -11.4% 20.2% 3,342 -11.1% 9,404 15.1%
Kotak Mahindra Life 1,454 -6.1% 27.0% 6,241 -3.1% 17,618 0.0%
Max Life 4,269 16.5% 13.3% 17,681 3.8% 41,110 5.1%
PNB MetLife Life 1,227 9.4% 23.5% 5,126 -12.1% 13,374 -4.2%
Reliance Nippon Life 772 -1.6% 17.3% 3,542 -14.5% 8,981 0.9%
SBI Life 9,543 -0.9% 18.2% 37,862 -15.2% 102,857 9.9%
Shriram Life 527 6.8% 41.3% 1,914 -7.9% 4,809 -0.5%
Star Union Dai-Ichi Life 872 4.0% 103.2% 2,254 -5.0% 5,613 -1.4%
Tata AIA Life 2,771 23.8% 14.1% 12,819 21.5% 27,054 20.6%
APE Growth trends for select private players – HDLI & Max seeing improving trends, TATA AIA strong growth
continued
APE YoY Growth Jul-20 Aug-20
Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Sep-20
Trends
Aditya Birla Sun Life -15% -5% 10% -37% 0% 6% 33% 8% -4% 30%
Bajaj Allianz Life 5% 27% 27% -42% 12% -24% -3% 41% 9% 6%
HDFC Life 39% 13% 32% -25% -37% -36% -2% 18% 20% 45%
ICICI Prudential Life 8% -4% -13% -48% -56% -54% -44% -37% -27% -23%
Kotak Mahindra Life 23% 15% 0% -37% -25% -5% 15% -3% -2% -6%
Max Life 23% 15% 1% -36% -21% -20% 13% -2% 11% 16%
SBI Life 17% 16% -5% -43% -59% -44% -2% -7% -9% -1%
Tata AIA Life 23% 31% 48% -36% 36% 3% 18% 18% 34% 24%
Source: Company, PL
October 8, 2020 3
Life Insurance
Individual APE and growth details – Mixed growth trends but large/mid sized players see sharp growth recovery
Individual APE (Rs. mn) Sep-20 YoY gr. MoM gr. YTD21 YoY gr. FY20 YoY gr.
Industry Total 60,531 4% 2% 283,946 -7% 734,533 6%
LIC 22,573 5% -17% 123,622 -2% 314,572 8%
Total Private 37,958 4% 17% 160,324 -11% 419,962 5%
Aditya Birla Sun Life 1,674 36% 29% 7,439 7% 17,018 0%
Aegon Life 45 -26% 21% 215 -40% 710 -30%
Aviva Life 113 18% 11% 589 24% 1,156 -31%
Bajaj Allianz Life 1,838 16% 7% 8,653 11% 19,268 11%
Bharti Axa Life 428 -12% 18% 2,087 -23% 5,936 2%
Canara HSBC OBC Life 899 -23% 45% 3,095 -28% 9,749 7%
Primerica Life 101 -22% 11% 572 -30% 1,585 -47%
Edelweiss Tokio Life 374 1% 31% 1,506 14% 3,229 -5%
Exide Life 521 -25% 30% 2,088 -18% 6,356 -5%
Future Generali Life 218 -37% 11% 1,155 -21% 3,671 -2%
HDFC Life 6,113 43% 13% 28,110 2% 59,646 19%
ICICI Prudential Life 4,422 -24% 9% 18,845 -38% 66,427 -6%
IDBI Federal Life 303 3% 47% 935 -34% 2,820 -37%
IndiaFirst Life 821 -5% 26% 2,797 -14% 8,499 25%
Kotak Mahindra Life 1,380 -6% 27% 5,979 2% 16,454 -1%
Max Life 4,232 16% 13% 17,578 4% 40,785 5%
PNB MetLife Life 1,201 11% 23% 5,032 -11% 12,964 -5%
Reliance Nippon Life 768 -1% 17% 3,530 -14% 8,931 2%
SBI Life 8,381 -4% 16% 33,236 -20% 97,711 9%
Shriram Life 509 6% 41% 1,875 -5% 4,608 1%
Star Union Dai-Ichi Life 856 4% 104% 2,212 -6% 5,520 -2%
Tata AIA Life 2,763 25% 14% 12,795 22% 26,918 21%
October 8, 2020 4
Life Insurance
May-19
May-20
Jan-19
Jun-19
Jan-20
Jun-20
Mar-19
Mar-20
Feb-19
Feb-20
Jul-19
Jul-20
Apr-19
Oct-19
Apr-20
Nov-19
Dec-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Sep-20
Aug-20
Source: Life Insurance Council, PL
20% 18%
15% 12%
10%
12%
5%
0%
May-19
May-20
Jan-19
Jun-19
Jan-20
Jun-20
Mar-19
Mar-20
Feb-19
Feb-20
Oct-19
Apr-19
Apr-20
Jul-19
Jul-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Sep-19
Sep-20
Aug-19
Aug-20
Source: Company, PL
October 8, 2020 5
Life Insurance
67,462
70,000
50,000
30,000
28,806
10,000
May-18
May-19
May-20
Jan-18
Jun-18
Jan-19
Jun-19
Jan-20
Jun-20
Mar-18
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-20
Mar-19
Mar-20
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-18
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Oct-19
Apr-20
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Aug-17
Sep-17
Aug-18
Sep-18
Aug-19
Sep-19
Sep-20
Aug-20
October 8, 2020 6
Life Insurance
Valuation FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
P/EV 5.7 4.7 3.9 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1
P/EVOP 35.3 31.6 25.3 22.2 18.0 19.4 16.6 14.4 18.9 18.6 16.4 14.6 9.1 9.2 7.8 7.0
P/BV 16.3 13.5 10.5 9.0 8.5 7.5 6.6 5.8 7.9 6.5 5.6 4.9 6.5 5.5 4.6 3.9
P/E 90.3 66.4 41.6 55.0 58.2 55.9 48.2 39.2 58.3 34.7 31.9 30.0 20.6 18.8 17.1 15.5
Key Parameters (Rs bn) FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
APE 74.1 73.0 86.1 101.0 107.4 107.9 125.0 145.0 73.8 62.9 70.5 77.8 42.3 45.6 52.0 58.3
VNB 19.2 18.4 22.9 26.6 20.1 20.6 24.7 28.7 16.1 15.4 17.3 19.2 9.0 8.9 10.8 12.1
EVOP 33.2 37.0 46.2 52.7 45.9 42.6 49.9 57.6 32.9 33.6 38.0 42.5 18.1 17.9 20.9 23.4
EV 206.5 250.6 296.5 349.3 262.9 311.6 364.9 422.9 230.3 261.9 299.6 341.8 99.8 113.9 130.9 149.6
Networth 71.9 86.5 111.6 129.9 97.3 109.8 124.5 143.6 78.4 96.3 110.8 126.7 25.5 30.1 35.5 41.9
VIF 134.6 164.1 184.9 219.5 165.6 201.8 240.3 279.3 151.9 165.6 188.8 215.2 74.3 83.3 93.5 104.8
PAT 13.0 17.6 28.1 21.3 14.2 14.8 17.2 21.1 10.7 17.9 19.6 20.7 8.0 8.7 9.6 10.6
Growth YoY FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
APE 18.3% -1.4% 17.9% 17.9% 13.6% 8.3% 2.7% 15.9% 0.1% -5.4% -14.7% 12.0% 5.6% 7.8% 14.1% 14.1%
VNB 20.0% 24.6% -4.2% 24.8% 24.1% 17.0% 2.6% 19.9% 3.3% 20.9% -3.9% 12.0% 25.6% 4.7% 3.0% 21.0%
EVOP 14.1% 8.3% 11.5% 25.1% 12.5% 38.3% -7.2% 17.1% 3.3% -13.5% 2.0% 13.4% 21.1% 10.1% -1.5% 17.3%
EV 20.3% 12.8% 21.4% 18.3% 17.5% 17.4% 18.5% 17.1% 15.1% 6.5% 13.7% 14.4% 19.0% 11.6% 14.2% 14.9%
Networth 21.0% 22.4% 20.3% 29.0% 14.7% 13.6% 12.8% 13.5% 4.7% 6.6% 22.7% 15.2% -3.3% 6.1% 18.4% 17.9%
VIF 19.9% 8.3% 12.7% 14.0% 19.3% 19.7% 21.9% 19.1% 21.3% 6.4% 9.0% 14.0% 30.1% 13.6% 12.1% 12.2%
PAT 15.1% 1.4% 36.0% 36.0% 7.2% 4.0% 16.1% 23.0% -9.8% 67.9% 9.0% 6.1% 43.3% 9.4% 10.4% 10.2%
Operating Parameters FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
VNB Margin 25.9% 25.2% 26.6% 26.3% 18.7% 19.1% 19.8% 19.8% 21.7% 24.5% 24.5% 24.6% 21.6% 19.5% 20.7% 20.8%
OP RoEV 18.1% 17.9% 18.4% 17.8% 20.5% 16.2% 16.0% 15.8% 15.2% 14.6% 14.5% 14.2% 20.3% 17.9% 18.4% 17.9%
RoEV 12.6% 22.5% 19.2% 18.6% 17.4% 18.5% 17.1% 15.9% 6.5% 13.7% 14.4% 14.1% 16.7% 18.2% 18.6% 17.5%
Per Share Values FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
VNB per share 9.5 9.1 11.4 13.2 20.1 20.6 24.7 28.7 11.2 10.7 12.0 13.3 33.3 33.0 39.9 44.9
EVOP per share 16.4 18.3 22.9 26.1 45.9 42.6 49.9 57.6 22.9 23.4 26.5 29.6 67.3 66.2 77.7 87.0
EV per share 102.3 124.1 146.8 173.0 262.9 311.5 364.9 422.9 160.4 182.4 208.7 238.1 370.1 422.6 485.4 554.8
BV per share 35.6 42.8 55.3 64.3 97.3 109.8 124.5 143.6 54.6 67.0 77.2 88.2 94.4 111.8 131.8 155.5
VIF per share 66.6 81.3 91.6 108.7 165.6 201.8 240.3 279.3 105.8 115.3 131.5 149.8 275.7 309.0 346.8 388.8
Earnings per share 6.4 8.7 13.9 10.5 14.2 14.8 17.2 21.1 7.4 12.5 13.6 14.4 29.6 32.4 35.7 39.4
Source: Company, PL
October 8, 2020 7
Life Insurance
Analyst Coverage Universe
Sr. No. Company Name Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)
1 Axis Bank Hold 480 446
2 Bank of Baroda BUY 65 49
3 Federal Bank BUY 67 50
4 HDFC Bank BUY 1,265 1,098
5 HDFC Life Insurance Company Reduce 533 579
6 ICICI Bank BUY 462 383
7 ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Hold 424 434
8 IDFC First Bank Sell 21 28
9 IndusInd Bank BUY 680 527
10 Kotak Mahindra Bank Accumulate 1,389 1,323
11 Max Financial Services Accumulate 651 610
12 Punjab National Bank Hold 37 35
13 SBI Life Insurance Company Accumulate 920 828
14 South Indian Bank BUY 11 8
15 State Bank of India BUY 276 191
October 8, 2020 8
Life Insurance
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
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We/I Mr. Pritesh Bumb- MBA, M.com, Ms. Aashi Rara- CA, B.Com Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed
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