NRB Bearings (NRBBEA)

CMP: | 130 Target: | 175 (34%) Target Period: 12-18 months BUY
June 16, 2021

Margins expand; positive surprise…

NRB's Q4 performance was a beat on our estimates on all parameters. The
company posted strong topline growth as well as improvement in margin

Company Update
spreads despite the recent commodity inflation. Revenue for the quarter
came in at | 257.2 crore, up 37.2% YoY, 5.1% QoQ (vs. I-direct estimate of
| 230.1 crore). With this, the company exited FY21 with a decline of merely
1.7% in revenues despite a washout H1. The key surprise to us was gross
margins, which improved 380 bps YoY, 86 bps QoQ. Employee cost s
Particulars
increased 13.7% YoY whereas other expenses increased 24.3% YoY. Q4 Particular Amount
EBIDTA margins were at 18.2% vs. 8.2% YoY, 17.6% QoQ (I-direct estimate Market Capitalization 1,260
at 15%). Absolute EBIDTA came in at | 46.8 crore, up 203% YoY, 8% QoQ Total Debt (FY21) 222
(vs. I-direct estimate at | 34.5 crore). Ensuing PAT came in at | 34.6 crore vs. Cash and Investments (FY21) 76
EV (FY21) 1,406
| 4.2 crore in Q4FY20 (I-direct estimate | 17.3 crore). Tax rate for the quarter
52 week H/L (|) (BSE) 141 / 66
was at 11.9%. Equity capital 19.4
Face value (|) 2.0
Price hikes, sustained volumes to negate higher input cost s

Price Performance
NRB took a price hike in the range of 5-7% in January. Going ahead, another
hike of 4-5% is expected in order to pass on higher input costs. We believe 250 14000
a strong H2 and overall better FY22 volume should aid NRB to achieve 16% 200 12000
& 16.5% EBIDTA margins in FY22E & FY23E, respectively. 10000
150 8000
Higher exports, new products to aid growth in FY22E… 100 6000

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

4000
50 2000
While the second wave impacted the domestic business to an extent in May, 0 0
export continued to do well with higher wallet share from clients and entry

Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20
Jun-20
Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-21
Feb-18

Feb-19

Feb-20

Feb-21
into newer product categories. The management has guided for a quarterly
run rate of ~| 60 crore for exports. Furthermore, NRB’s earlier effort in BS-
NRB (L.H.S) NSE500 Index
VI is now paying off with better volumes in the category. On the whole, we
expect NRB to post meaningful growth of 22% in FY22, which should be on
sss

the back of a stronger H2. Key risk to our call

Valuation & Outlook  Potential third wave impacting auto

retails & thereby demand for NRB’s
NRB’s performance is largely correlated with the domestic auto segment as products
~70% of the topline comes from domestic OEMs. Hence, demand  Inability to sustain margins
sustenance in the auto segment in the near term will be a key monitorable.
The company has reduced its debt by | 97.8 crore in FY21. Going ahead,
we expect positive operating leverage and price hikes to improve margins Research Analyst
from 13.6% in FY21 to 16% & 16.5% by FY22E & FY23E, respectively. We Chirag Shah
build in revenue, EBIDTA, PAT CAGR of 17.2%, 29%, 32.2%, respectively, shah.chirag@icicisecurities.com
in FY21-23E. We estimate an EPS of | 9.8/share for FY23E, implying
Adil Khan
earnings yield of 7.5% at the CMP. We value NRB at 18x FY23EPS. We adil.khan@icicisecurities.com
maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a revised target price of
| 175/share (earlier | 150).

Key Financial Summary

s
sss

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E CAGR (FY21-23E)

Revenue 776.0 762.4 930.2 1,047.6 17.2%
EBITDA 85.8 103.9 148.8 172.9 29.0%
EBITDA margin (%) 11.1 13.6 16.0 16.5
Net Profit 32.1 54.1 77.5 94.5 32.2%
EPS (|) 3.3 5.6 8.0 9.8
P/E (x) 39.3 23.3 16.3 13.3
EV/EBITDA 17.5 13.5 9.5 8.0
RoCE (%) 8.7 11.8 15.8 17.2
RoE (%) 7.0 10.4 13.1 14.1
s

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

 Company Update | NRB Bearings ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis

Year Q4FY21 Q4FY21E Q4FY20 YoY (%) Q3FY21 QoQ(%) Comments

Strong momentum contined in the auto sector in

Revenue 257.2 230.1 187.5 37.2 244.7 5.1
Q4FY21, which led to better volumes
Other Income 6.0 4.0 4.7 27.0 4.3 37.9
Total Income 263.2 234.1 192.2 36.9 249.0 5.7
Cost of materials consumed 94.2 90.9 77.1 22.2 96.7 (2.6) Gross margins surprised by expanding 380 bps YoY
Change in inventories 0.9 0.0 (0.6) (241.3) (4.1) (121.5)
Employee cost 37.5 35.7 33.0 13.7 38.5 (2.5)
Other expenses 77.9 69.0 62.7 24.3 70.6 10.4
Higher revenue, better margins led to EBITDA
EBITDA 46.8 34.5 15.4 203.0 43.1 8.4
growth
EBIDTA margins improved led by positive operating
EBITDA Margin (%) 18.2 15.0 8.2 995 bps 17.6 56 bps
levearge and better input costs
Depreciation 9.1 9.0 7.2 27.3 9.0 1.1
Interest 3.6 5.0 6.1 (41.6) 5.3 (32.7)
PBT 40.1 24.5 6.9 482.4 33.2 20.8
Taxes 4.8 6.9 2.5 93.5 9.9 (51.6)
PAT 35.3 17.7 4.4 700.2 23.3 51.6
Source: ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 2: Change in Estimates

FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E
(| Crore) Actual Actual Old New % Change Old New % Change
Revenue 776.0 762.4 895.7 930.2 3.9 1,001.1 1,047.6 4.6
EBITDA 85.8 103.9 140.6 148.8 5.9 157.2 172.9 10.0
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.1 13.6 15.7 16.0 30 bps 15.7 16.5 80 bps
PAT 32.1 54.1 70.0 77.5 10.8 81.6 94.5 15.8
EPS (|) 3.3 5.6 7.2 8.0 11.1 8.4 9.8 16.1
Source: ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2

 Company Update | NRB Bearings ICICI Direct Research

Financials in charts
Exhibit 3: Revenue trend

1,120 1,048

960 930
776 762
800
(| crore)

640
480
320
160
-
FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 4: EBITDA and EBITDA margin trend

200 19

16.0
150 173
149 16.5 16
(| crore)

100

(%)
104 13.6
86 13
50
11.1
- 10
FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E

EBITDA Margin (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 5: PAT and PAT margin trend

100 9.0 10
8.3
80 94.5
7.1
77.5 7
60
(| crore)

(%)

54.1
40 4.1
4
20 32.1

- 1
FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E

PAT Margin (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3

 Company Update | NRB Bearings ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 6: RoCE and RoE trend

40
35
30
25
17.7
15.9
(%)

20
11.5 17.2
15 15.8
8.2
10 11.8 14.1
8.7 13.1
5 10.4
- 7.0
FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E

RoE RoCE RoIC

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 4

 Company Update | NRB Bearings ICICI Direct Research

Financial Summary

Exhibit 7: Profit & Loss (| crore) Exhibit 8: Cash Flow Statement (| crore)
(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E (| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E
Revenue 776.0 762.4 930.2 1,047.6 Profit after Tax 32.1 54.1 77.5 94.5
% YoY Growth (19.6) (1.7) 22.0 12.6 Depreciation 33.3 30.7 35.0 37.0
Other Income 16.1 15.1 12.0 12.0 Interest 21.8 21.8 15.4 13.8
Total Revenue 792.0 777.5 942.2 1,059.6 Other income (16.1) (15.1) (12.0) (12.0)
Cost of materials consumed 294.2 276.9 364.7 403.3 Prov for Taxation 13.6 10.7 30.9 37.5
Change in inventories 11.0 11.0 2.8 2.1 Change in Working Capital 40.0 28.0 (63.1) (43.0)
Employee cost 136.7 137.7 151.6 170.8 Taxes Paid (10.8) (9.6) (30.9) (37.5)
Other Expenses 248.3 232.9 262.3 298.6 Cashflow from Operations 114 121 53 90
(Purchase)/Sale of Fixed Assets (76.2) (19.8) (49.7) (50.0)
Total expenditure 690.1 658.5 781.4 874.7
(Purchase)/Sale of Investments (0.2) (6.0) - -
EBITDA 85.8 103.9 148.8 172.9
Other Income 16.1 15.1 12.0 12.0
% YoY Growth (53.6) 21.0 43.3 16.1
Cashflow from Investing (60) (11) (38) (38)
Interest 21.8 21.8 15.4 13.8
Issue/(Repayment of Debt) 60.3 (98.2) (30.0) (20.0)
Depreciation 33.3 30.7 35.0 37.0
Changes in Minority Interest 0.1 1.7 2.0 2.0
PBT 46.8 66.4 110.5 134.1
Changes in Networth (45.7) 6.8 (4.8) (14.5)
Tax 13.6 10.7 30.9 37.5
Interest (21.8) (21.8) (15.4) (13.8)
PAT 32.1 54.1 77.5 94.5
Others - - - -
% YoY Growth (65.0) 68.5 43.4 21.9 Cashflow from Financing (7) (112) (48) (46)
EPS 3.3 5.6 8.0 9.8
Source: ICICI Direct Research; Company
Changes in Cash 46.5 (1.6) (33.1) 6.0
Opening Cash/Cash Equivalent 31.3 77.8 76.2 43.2
Closing Cash/ Cash Equivalent 78 76 43 49
Source: ICICI Direct Research; Company

Exhibit 9: Balance Sheet (| crore) Exhibit 10: Key Ratios

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E (Year-end March) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E
Share Capital 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 EPS 3.3 5.6 8.0 9.8
Reserves & Surplus 438 498 571 651 Cash EPS 6.7 8.7 11.6 13.6
Total Shareholders fund 457 518 590 670 BV 47.1 53.4 60.9 69.2
Minority Interest 9.5 11.2 13.2 15 DPS 0.8 - 0.5 1.5
Total debt 320 222 192 172 EBITDA Margin 11.1 13.6 16.0 16.5
Deferred tax liability (net) 15.2 16.3 16.3 16 PBT / Net Sales 6.8 9.6 12.2 13.0
Total Liabilities 802 767 812 874 PAT Margin 4.1 7.1 8.3 9.0
- Inventory days 107 97 98 98.0
Gross Block 764 814 864 914 Debtor days 94 100 95 94.9
Acc: Depreciation 426 457 492 529 Creditor days 78 85 78 78.0
RoE 7.0 10.4 13.1 14.1
Net Block 363 358 373 386
RoCE 8.7 11.8 15.8 17.2
Capital WIP 16.1 8.2 8.2 8
RoIC 8.2 11.5 15.9 17.7
Investments 50 56 56 56
P/E 39.3 23.3 16.3 13.3
Inventory 227 203 250 281
EV / EBITDA 17.5 13.5 9.5 8.0
Sundry debtors 200 209 242 272
EV / Net Sales 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.3
Cash 78 76 43 49
Market Cap / Sales 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.2
Loans & Advances 5.7 1.5 6.5 7
Price to Book Value 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.9
Other current assets 43 42 42 47
Debt/EBITDA 3.7 2.1 1.3 1.0
CL& Prov. 181 189 210 236
Net Debt / Equity 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2
Net Current Assets 372 343 373 422
Current Ratio 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.4
Total Assets 802 767 812 874
Quick Ratio 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2
Source: ICICI Direct Research; Company
Source: ICICI Direct Research; Company

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 5

 Company Update | NRB Bearings ICICI Direct Research

RATING RATIONALE
ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its
stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Buy, Hold,
Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as
the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%;
Hold: -5% to 15%;
Reduce: -5% to -15%;
Sell: <-15%

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093

research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 6

 Company Update | NRB Bearings ICICI Direct Research

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I/We, Chirag Shah PGDBM, Adil Khan PGDM (Finance); Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report
accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report
in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI
Securities Limited is a SEBI registered Research Analyst with SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI
Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance,
general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment
banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons
reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing
on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical
Research Reports.

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions
expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, target price of the Institutional Research.

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly
confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or
reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no
obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate
that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where
ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness
guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe
for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat
recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy
is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own
investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent
judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign
exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily
a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ
materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other
assignment in the past twelve months.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report
for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or
specific transaction.

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did
not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI
Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day
of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject
company/companies mentioned in this report.

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such

distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such

jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come

are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 7