COVID-19 VACCINATION:

STATUS QUO
A STATISTA DOSSIERPLUS ON THE COVID-19 VACCINES AND THE
ONGOING VACCINATION CAMPAIGNS
Table of contents

01 The COVID-19 pandemic: one year 03 The vaccination campaign: status

later quo
▪ Timeline of the pandemic ▪ United States
▪ Reduced mobility ▪ Largest EU member states (Germany,
France, Italy)
▪ The COVID-19 vaccines
▪ United Kingdom
▪ SARS-CoV-2 mutations

02 Vaccination strategies 04 Conclusion and outlook

▪ COVID-19 vaccines‘ landscape

▪ International vaccines’ portfolios

▪ Acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccine

2
Started in late 2020, the vaccination campaigns are feeding the
hope for the pandemic to lose momentum in 2021
Executive summary
The spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, responsible for the COVID-19
disease, has pushed most of the world countries into prolonged crisis
mode. One year after the first cases of COVID-19 were recorded in
China, the pandemic totaled, as of February 2021, over 107 million
infections and 2.4 million casualties worldwide in official records.
Similarly to the influenza virus, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 has been
occurring in waves. During phases of peak contagion, national health
systems were put under enormous – sometimes even unbearable –
pressure. This compelled the national governments to find strategies to
reduce the spread of the virus.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, the curtailment of SARS-CoV-2 has
been attainable only through mobility-reducing measures (lockdowns),
social distancing, and increased hygiene standards (e.g., wide usage of
face masks). Vaccines are now offering hope to deescalate the
pandemic without these strict measures. As early as summer 2020,
some potential vaccines cleared the rigid testing and licensure
processes of national and international health authorities, a step which
offered the concrete possibility of reaching a generalized immunity
against COVID-19 and bringing the pandemic to an end. Whereas the
development of multiple safe, effective, and protocol-compliant
3
vaccines within one year is already an unprecedented achievement in
the history of vaccines, producing, distributing, and administering them
on a global scale also presents complex challenges. Moreover, all ten
vaccines currently in use and the majority of those in the latest stage of
testing require two injections to be fully effective, thus doubling the
number of needed resources.
As of February 2021, the mass vaccination campaigns have started in
most parts of the world targeting to attain herd immunity against
COVID-19 perhaps within 2021. In terms of sheer numbers, this
translates to administering a vaccine twice per patient in a little more
than 365 days to, at least, 70 percent of the population. Focusing on the
United States and large European countries (Germany, United Kingdom,
France, and Italy), Statista is tracking the number of COVID-19 vaccines
issued per day and comparing these figures with the average numbers
needed for reaching herd immunity by the 31st of December 2021. As of
February 2021, the United States and United Kingdom appear to have
reached this crucial threshold, envisaging herd immunity by the end of
2021. By contrast, the average daily administrations so far observed in
Germany, Italy, and France would need to be tripled in order to reach
herd immunity by the end of 2021.
The COVID-19 pandemic: one year
later
▪ Timeline of the pandemic
▪ Reduced mobility
▪ The COVID-19 vaccines
▪ SARS-CoV-2 mutations
One year after SARS-CoV-2 was first identified in Hubei, China, its
pandemic spread has triggered a global race for the vaccine
Overview

First detected in the Chinese province of Hubei between the end of 2019 and The pandemic in numbers
The pandemic in numbers (as of February 11, 2021)
January 2020, the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus, responsible for the COVID-19 (as of xx.02.2020)
disease, rapidly reached a pandemic spread. From China's cancellation of the
events related to the Lunar New Year, planned for the last weekend of January Certified infections worldwide 107.8 million
2020, to the WHO statement officially declaring the spread of the SARS-CoV-2
pandemic, less than 50 days passed.
Certified casualties worldwide 2.4 million
The spread of the virus, already in the so-called first wave of January-May 2020,
was confirmed to be a serious threat for most of the world population and for
all the national health systems, including those of the most advanced Vaccines undergoing testing and
> 250
countries. approval process

The countries’ response to the pandemic followed two approaches: One was Vaccines currently in use* 10
that the population was asked (or, in some countries, ordered) to reduce time
spent outside and avoid contact with other people, to obstruct the virus’
spread. The second was that the pharmaceutical industry and research
facilities began the research to develop more effective medicine and, most
importantly, a vaccine. Despite not having any precedent in the modern history
of medicine, one year later, over 250 candidate vaccines against SARS-CoV-2
have been submitted to the various health authorities for approval. Of these,
10 were officially approved and are currently administered to a wide share of
the world population.

Note(s): *intended as vaccines approved by at least one national health authority in the world and widely administered to the population (outside a testing scheme)
5 Source(s): John Hopkins University, WHO, Statista
COVID-19 has infected over 107 million people and caused 2.3
million deaths so far; now it's gaining momentum
COVID-19 cumulative infections (left axis) and casualties (right axis), as of February 11, 2021

120

COVID-19 reported cumulative casualties worldwide,

Cumulative infections Cumulative casualties
COVID-19 reported cumulative infections worldwide,

10
January 25, 2020: May 27, 2020:
100 December 27, 2020: 9
China cancels Lunar 100,000 COVID-19
New Year celebrations victims in the U.S. Vaccine day in the
8
European Union
80
7
February 5, 2020:

in millions
August 11, 2020:
in millions

Diamond Princess 6
60 Sputnik V vaccine
cruise ship 5
approved in Russia
quarantined
4
40
March 11, 2020:
3
WHO declares the
20 spread of SARS-CoV-2 2
pandemic
1

0 0

October 2020
May 2020

November 2020
March 2020

April 2020

June 2020

December 2020
August 2020
January 2020

February 2020

January 2021
July 2020

September 2020

February 2021
6 Source(s): ABC news, Johns Hopkins University, Statista
 The spread of SARS-CoV-2 took place in waves; the highest
numbers were recorded in December 2020 and January 2021
COVID-19 daily cases, selected countries and aggregated by calendar week
COVID-19 new confirmed cases, weekly

2,000,000
March May July September November January
1,800,000 February April June August October December Feb.
1,600,000

2020 2021
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000 United States Germany UK France Italy
400,000
200,000
0
10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52
4

7
Week
Week 14: weekly
14, total infections
new infections: Week
Week 34: weekly
14, total infections
new infections: Week51,
Week 2, total
2021: weekly
new infections
infections:

• United States: 207,341 United States: 299,071 United States: 1,709,356

• Germany: 38,028 Germany: 9,487 Germany: 145,514
• Italy: 31,259 Italy: 5,430 Italy: 121,045
• United Kingdom: 31,096 United Kingdom: 7,158 United Kingdom: 417,570
• France: 7,538 France: 23,254 France: 126,028

7 Source(s): Johns Hopkins University, Statista

The most common solution to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 was
to ask people to reduce their mobility and stay home
Google mobility trends, selected countries

The widening spread of SARS-CoV-2 in

80%
Residential March 2020, first in Europe and in the
United States shortly after, made it
Percentage change compared to pre-pandemic period*, weekly

60% Germany United Kingdom France Italy United States necessary for these countries to introduce
measures to reduce the mobility of their
40% citizens.
The strategy of national lockdowns included
20% the temporary closures of public spaces
(schools, universities) and recreational
0% spaces (restaurants, cinemas, theaters,
sports facilities) and required employers to
-20% facilitate working from home for those
employees that could.
-40% As a result, people’s time spent at home
increased both within March and May 2020
-60% Workplace (first wave), and again from October 2020
onward (second wave). The time spent in
the workplace was inversely proportional,
-80% Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 2021
declining the most during the peaks of the
21

32

45
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31

33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53

3
1
2
two waves.

Note(s): *Defined as the days between January 3, 2020 and February 6, 2020.
8 Source(s): Google mobility trends, our world in data
Developing vaccines for COVID-19 became pivotal, yet adhering to
official protocols to ensure safety and efficacy is crucial
Development and licensure of a newly developed vaccine, United States regulations

Human Larger scale tests,

Tests on a small group of adults Post-distribution
cell culture involving 1,000 to
(20 to 80 subjects). monitoring.
and/or animal >10,000
Focus on safety and extent of Focus on adverse
testing. individuals.
immune response. events.

Approval
Exploratory IND Phase II and
stage application trials licensure

Pre-clinical Phase I trials Phase III Post-

stage trials licensure
monitoring

Tests on larger samples of Submission of the

Application to the individuals, including risk groups. Biologics License
Basic U.S. Food and Focus on immunogenicity, Application to the
laboratory Drug proposed dose, and method of U.S. Food and Drug
research. Administration. delivery. Administration.

9 Source(s): historyofvaccines.org, The New York Times

Within the year 2020, 292 candidate COVID-19 vaccines have been
developed; 10 of them are already in use
COVID-19 vaccines in the latest stage of testing and in use, as of February 11, 2021

Bef. Phase III Phase III testing Vaccines currently

Vaccines currentlyininuse
use
Manufacturer Country of origin Development Countries where the vaccine is used
starting date

Pfizer/BioNTech U.S./Germany Mar. 2020 WHO countries

11 vaccines
UK, India, Argentina, Dominican
AstraZeneca/Oxford UK Jan. 2020
Republic, El Salvador, Mexico, Morocco
Gamelaya Research Inst. Russia, Belarus, Argentina, Serbia,
Russia Mar. 2020
(Sputnik V) Paraguay, Palestine
271 vaccines Moderna U.S. Jan. 2020 U.S., Canada, EU, Israel, UK, Switzerland

Sinopharm China Mar. 2020 China, UAE , Bahrain, Egypt

Sinovac China Mar. 2020 China, Turkey

CanSino China Jan. 2020 China

Wuhan/Sinopharm China Mar. 2020 China

Vector institute
Russia May 2020 Russia
(EpiVacCorona)

Bharat India Jun. 2020 India (emergency use)

10 vaccines

10 Source(s): London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WHO

Vaccines against viral diseases are based on three different
approaches; the various COVID-19 vaccines explored them all
Type of vaccines against viral diseases

Whole-virus approach Example from other diseases:

Influenza
The vaccine is based on the entire disease-
carrying virus, containing either an attenuated or
Exemplary COVID-19 vaccines
inactivated virus, or some of its proteins.
based on this approach:
Oxford/AstraZeneca

Subunit approach Example from other diseases:

The vaccine is based only on very specific parts of Hepatitis B
the virus that the immune system has to
recognize to hinder the virus’ reproduction. The Exemplary COVID-19 vaccines
vaccine contains only these parts. based on this approach:
Anhui Zhifei

Genetic approach Example from other diseases:

The vaccine is based on a section of the genetic Human papillomavirus
material of specific proteins. The vaccine contains
the genetic instructions (mRNA) for the protein Exemplary COVID-19 vaccines
against which the immune system has to respond based on this approach:
Pfizer/BioNTech

Further insights: World Health Organization infographic

11 Source(s): WHO
Mutations of the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 generate concern
worldwide, especially B.1.351
COVID-19: overview of prominent virus variants that include mutated spike proteins

In general, viruses are constantly adapting

B.1.1.7 B.1.351 P.1 and mutating. When these mutations create
Variant a selective advantage such as increased
transmissibility, they prevail and spread
quickly.
Alternate Name 501 Y.V1 501 Y.V2 501 Y.V3
The SARS-CoV-2 mutations B.1.1.7 (UK),
Mutations* 23 21 17 B.1.351 (South Africa), and P.1 (Brazil) quickly
became the predominant variants in their
Spike mutations* 8 9 10 countries of origin and started to spread
around the globe. As almost all the
Suspected state of origin United Kingdom South Africa Brazil approved vaccines are addressing the spike
protein of SARS-CoV-2, mutation within this
First detected Sept. 2020 Oct. 2020 Jan. 2021
protein may endanger the effectiveness of
the vaccines. Whereas this seems to not be
Countries reported 61 24 6
true for the B.1.1.7 and P.1 variants, B.1.351
Increased Increased Increased generates more concerns, remarking how
transmissibility transmissibility and very transmissibility and the effectiveness of the vaccines against
Concern
(confirmed >40% likely reduction of possible reduction of
other mutations is a key factor in the global
increase) vaccine efficacy vaccine efficacy
challenge to overcome the pandemic.

Note: *Number of mutations in comparison to the most frequent SARS-CoV-2 virus

12 Sources: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; European Molecular Biology Laboratory
02 Vaccination strategies
▪ COVID-19 vaccines’ landscape
▪ International vaccines’ portfolios
▪ Acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccine
To finally stop the COVID-19 pandemic, countries worldwide are
(pre-)ordering sizable quantities of the so-far developed vaccines
Overview
Doses ordered Doses per
(in million) capita
The pandemic spread of SARS-CoV-2, the pressure that it generated on COVID-19 vaccine supplies, selected countries
national health systems, and the grim number of casualties it caused have
highlighted a trade-off between guaranteeing the public health and swiftly Ordered doses Doses per
returning to normal activities. The mass vaccination campaigns against SARS- (in millions) capita
CoV-2 emerged as the most convincing solution that would balance both
needs. Once more than 70 percent of the population was immunized in each
country, the health crisis could finally be brought under control. United States 1,400 4.2
While the first important step for the mass vaccinations – the development of
safe and effective vaccines – has been successfully concluded in the record-
breaking span of one year, the challenge for 2021 will be to immunize the European Union 1,845 4.1
largest amount of people within the shortest timeframe possible. Focusing on
the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, these
countries have committed sizable resources to guarantee enough doses of
COVID-19 vaccines to the respective populations, having ordered (or pre- United Kingdom 407 6.1
ordered) over 4 single doses per citizen on average. As the large majority of
approved and (likely) soon-to-be-approved vaccines require double
administration to grant the highest immunity, the ordered quantities are more
than sufficient. The main challenge remains the speed and efficacy of
execution and constraints in the recommended usage of the available vaccines
(most prominently, the so-far approved vaccines are not suitable for children).

14 Source(s): Unicef, WHO, Statista

The effort to timely develop a COVID-19 vaccine resulted in ten
vaccines that are already widely administered
COVID-19: vaccines in use* as of February 11, 2021, by ordered quantities worldwide

Doses Type of Administration Required temperature Price per

Manufacturer Efficacy Production sites
ordered** vaccine method for maximum shelf life dose
2,749 Germany, Netherlands,
AstraZeneca/Oxford 70%
70% 2 injections +2/8°C -70 3 USD
million Belgium, India
1,306 United States, Germany,
Pfizer/BioNTech 95% 2 injections -70°C -20 17 USD
million Belgium

Sinovac 421 million n.a. 2 injections China +2/8°C 2-8 <20 USD

Moderna 395 million 94.5%

n.a. 2 injections United States, Switzerland -20°C 2-8 17 USD

Sputik V 141 million 91%

91% 2 injections Russia +2/8°C 2-8 <5 USD

CanSino 39 million n.a. 1 injection China +2/8°C 2-8 30 USD

Bharat 30 million n.a. 2 injections India +2/8°C 2-8 <5 USD

Sinopharm n.a. 79%

79% 2 injections China +2/8°C 2-8 70 USD

Wuhan/Sinopharm n.a. n.a. 2 injections China +2/8°C 2-8 n.a.

Vector Institute n.a. n.a. 2 injections Russia +2/8°C n.a.

Note(s): *Approved by at least one national health authority

** Total of ordered doses worldwide, as officially disclosed
Whole virus Genetic (mRNA) Subunit
15 Source(s): Unicef, WHO, Statista
Other vaccines against COVID-19 are still in the latest stage of
testing and approval and have been already pre-ordered
COVID-19: vaccines in the latest stages of approval as of February 11, 2021, by ordered quantities worldwide

Doses Type of Administration Required temperature Price per

Manufacturer Efficacy Production sites
ordered** vaccine method for maximum shelf life dose
1,113 +2/8°C -70 9 USD
Johnson & Johnson 66%
n.a. 1 injection United States, Europe
million
1,030
Novavax n.a. 2 injections United States, Europe +2/8°C -20 3 USD
million

Sanofi-GSK 572 million n.a. 2 injections United States, Europe +2/8°C 2-8 9 USD

CureVac 465 million n.a. 2 injections Germany +2/8°C 2-8 12 USD

Valneva 60 million n.a. 2 injections United States, Europe +2/8°C 2-8 n.a.

Whole virus Genetic (mRNA) Subunit

Note(s): ** Total of ordered doses worldwide, as officially disclosed

16 Source(s): Unicef, WHO, Statista
 The WHO initiated the global initiative COVAX aiming at an
equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines for all countries
COVID-19 vaccines distributed by the COVAX program as share of population COVAX
countries

The WHO initiated the COVAX

program to jointly negotiate,
purchase, and distribute the
Number of vaccine COVID-19 vaccines. While
doses per capita most G7 countries prefer to
0.0 handle their vaccination
campaigns independently,
0.1
140 countries across all
>0.2 continents joined the
initiative. In the beginning,
the distribution aims at the
0.25 Lower and upper quartile Median protection of health care
workers and groups at
vaccine, doses

0.2
0.20 0.20 higher infection risk.
0.17 0.19
debt-to-equity

0.15 In participating African

per capita

0.13 0.13 countries, the median of

0.1
0.10 doses distributed by COVAX
ratio
COVID-19

0.05 is expected to be 13.3 doses

Long-term

0.03 per 100 citizen, thus less

0
0.00 than one dose per capita.
0.5 Asia 1.5 Africa 2.5 Europe* 3.5 North America* 4.5 Oceania 5.5 South America 6.5

Note(s): * The countries participating the COVAX program in these regions are those colored in the above map. Last COVAX update February 3. 2021
17 Source(s): COVAX, Our World in Data
 The United States, European Union, and United Kingdom ordered
sizable quantities of the available (or soon-to-be available) vaccines
Doses of COVID-19 vaccine ordered and pre-ordered, selected countries, as of February 11, 2021

The United States, European

Union, and United Kingdom, in
United States European Union United Kingdom response to the still-increasing
(focus on page 18) (focus on page 19) (focus on page 20)
records of COVID-19 infections
and casualties, ordered sizable
Doses ordered quantities of the available and
1,400 1,845 367
(in millions) soon-to-be available COVID-19
vaccines.
As of February 2021, these
Doses countries have secured, on
4.2 4.1 6.1
per capita
average, more than 4 COVID-19
vaccine doses per citizen. The
Doses from approved uncertainty around the overall
vaccines only 43 percent 52 percent 39 percent vaccines’ supply chain, the
(share of total) many ongoing approval
processes, and the spreading
Doses per capita of SARS-CoV-2 variants drove
(from approved 1.8 2.1 2.4 this precautionary excess of
vaccines only) orders.

18

18 Source(s): Unicef, WHO, Statista

Out of 1.4 billion doses ordered by the United States, 0.8 billion
consists of vaccines already approved by the national authorities
Doses of COVID-19 vaccine ordered and pre-ordered by the United States, as of February 11, 2021 United
States
Approved vaccines
Moderna The United States has
United States
Pending approval 21.5% ordered and pre-ordered 1.4
population:
332 million billion doses of COVID-19
More stringent cold vaccines from six different
chain required
Doses of approved providers. Among them,
vaccines: AstraZeneca has received
Pfizer/BioNTech 600 million the largest commission. In
21.5% 1,400 fact, over 3 vaccines out of
million doses Estimated costs*: 10 are expected to be
13.8 billion USD
provided by this Pharma
Novavax 41.6 USD per citizen
Health authority company in the United
7.1%
approval pending States.
57.1% As of February 2021, 43
percent of the total U.S.
Sanofi-GSK
vaccines’ portfolio consists
of already-approved
7.1%
vaccines.

Johnson & Johnson AstraZeneca/Oxford

35.7%
7.1%

Note(s): *Costs are hereby intended only as procurement costs, excluding the vaccines‘ administration costs
19 Source(s): Unicef, Statista
The European Union secured 1.8 billion doses of COVID-19
vaccines and candidate vaccines from 8 different providers
Doses of COVID-19 vaccine ordered and pre-ordered by the European Union, as of February 11, 2021 European
Union
Approved vaccines Pfizer/BioNTech AstraZeneca/Oxford
16.3% European Union The European Commission,
27.1%
Pending approval population: on behalf of the 27 member
446 million states of the Union, signed
More stringent cold agreements worth over 20
chain required Doses of approved billion U.S. dollars to secure
vaccines: almost 2 billion COVID-19
960 million vaccine doses.
1,845
million doses Estimated costs*: The first candidate vaccine
20.5 bn USD being approved by the
Valneva European Medicines Agency
46.0 USD per citizen
3.2% Moderna
Health authority was developed by the Pfizer-
approval pending 8.7%
BioNTech cooperation and is
48.0%
expected to be the most
used in the Union. As of
Novavax
CureVac February 2021, however,
5.4%
12.2% around half of the European
Union’s portfolio consists of
Sanofi-GSK Johnson & Johnson candidate vaccines for which
the final approval is still
16.3% 10.8%
pending.

Note(s): *Costs are hereby intended only as procurement costs, excluding the vaccines‘ administration costs
20 Source(s): European Commission, Unicef, Statista
Like the United States, the United Kingdom has placed the largest
share of its orders with AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford
Doses of COVID-19 vaccine ordered and pre-ordered by the United Kingdom, as of February 11, 2021 United
Kingdom
Approved vaccines AstraZeneca/Oxford Pfizer/BioNTech
United Kingdom The United Kingdom,
24.6% 9.8%
Pending approval population: officially not a member
Moderna
67 million of the European Union
4.2%
More stringent cold anymore as of the 1st of
chain required Doses of approved January 2021, has signed
vaccines: agreements for over 400
157 million
million doses of COVID-19
407
vaccines. In per-capita
million doses Estimated costs*:
3.3 billion USD terms, the United Kingdom
50.0 USD per citizen has secured a record
Health authority number of doses: in fact,
approval pending Valneva broken down to the
61.4% 24.6% population, 6.1 single doses
Johnson & Johnson
per citizen will be available
7.4% in the United Kingdom,
compared to the 4.1 and 4.2
single doses per capita in
Novavax Sanofi-GSK the United States and
14.7% 14.7% European Union,
respectively.

Note(s): *Costs are hereby intended only as procurement costs, excluding the vaccines‘ administration costs
21 Source(s): Unicef, Statista
 Since the pre-ordered COVID-19 vaccine will require over one year
to be fully delivered, high-risk groups have been prioritized
United States, European Union, and United Kingdom high-risk groups as share of total population

Elderly population (65+) Medical personnel Remaining population The United States, the European
United States
Union, and the United Kingdom
have ordered more than double
the number of vaccine doses
15.6% 1.7% Risk group: 57.3 million individuals
they need for their respective
populations, but pending
European Union approvals and
manufacturing/logistic
constraints led to a shortage of
20.1% 1.2% Risk group: 95.3 million individuals doses at the beginning of 2021.
Thus, two categories have been
prioritized in the vaccination
United Kingdom campaigns: the elderly
population and medical
personnel. The former as the
18.5% 1.1% Risk group: 13.1 million individuals most at risk of severe COVID-19
infections, the latter as being
exposed to the virus more
frequently in general.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

22 Source(s): World Bank

Except in France, most of surveyed people in the analyzed
countries are in favor of the COVID-19 vaccine
Survey data on COVID-19 vaccine acceptance or hesitancy, selected countries

People in the United States,

Share of respondes who would/would not take the COVID-19 vaccine
European Union, and the
Yes No/don't know/no answer United Kingdom will be
offered the possibility of
being vaccinated against
COVID-19 – but the decision
69% 65% 77%
62% is up to them.
40%
In the countries under
United States Germany France Italy United Kingdom analysis here, more than 60
Reasons for not taking the COVID-19 vaccine percent of the respective
population is in favor of
Worried about the side effects Not think it will be effective
being vaccinated against
Not enough at risk from COVID-19 Against vaccines in general
Other COVID-19. A remarkable
70% 72% exception is France, where
64% 60%
57%
only 40 percent of the
24% 25%
28% 26% 27% 27% 23%
population is pro- COVID-19
21% 21% 18% 19% 19%
19% 8% 13% 13%
17% vaccine. Among the vaccine’s
15% 14% 17%
opposers, the concern about
United States Germany France Italy United Kingdom side effects is the most
frequent decision-driver.

23 Source(s): IPSOS MORI

03 The vaccination campaign: status quo
▪ United States
▪ Largest EU member states (Germany,
France, Italy)
▪ United Kingdom
The speed of the national COVID-19 vaccination campaigns is a
pivotal factor in defeating the pandemic
Overview

There are significant differences in the strategies and designs of immunization Current daily average
campaigns across different countries and regions. As a result, countries are Daily average for reaching herd immunity by Dec 31, 2021
moving at different paces towards herd immunity. In the EU, the number of daily average
administered vaccines has fallen short of expectations. On average, Germany, 1,441 increase
France, and Italy, for example would have to nearly triple their current daily United States
1,262 None
administration pace to reach herd immunity within 2021.

This slow pace is mostly driven by shortages in the supply of vaccines and the
pending approval of more vaccines. There is hope that more vaccines will be 109
Germany
approved within the next months. Moreover, the optimization of the mass 315 2.8 times
distribution strategies is expected to further speed up the campaigns across the 83
France
EU. 246 2.5 times

Nevertheless, other countries such as the United States and the United 80
Italy
Kingdom are already on a promising path. The United States is already recording 230 3.3 times
a daily average of 1.6 million administered doses, paving a way to overcome the
pandemic within 2021. The United Kingdom is pursuing a different strategy than
most other European countries, by prioritizing the first dose of the vaccine. This United 445
way, they are able to provide more people with partial protection in the Kingdom 279 None
beginning but delay the full immunization of the second shot by a few weeks. So
far, this strategy seems to be effective, as already more than 20 percent of their
population received the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine.

Note(s): As of February 11, 2021

25 Source(s): Our World in Data, Statista
 The United States is leading in total administered doses; across the
country, no state is left behind
Vaccination progress (at least one dose) by state and over time, United States as of February 11, 2021
Despite logistical difficulties in the
beginning and differences in the state
Alabama: 11.08% regulations, the U.S. vaccination
campaign is progressing. While some
states initially only offered vaccines to
medical workers and nursing home
Share of vaccinated residents, by January most states
population had started to give injections to elderly
0% people as well. Among the federal states,
Alaska: 22.18% Alaska has vaccinated the highest share
10% of its population, with a fifth of their
residents having received at least one
20% injection. In terms of absolute numbers,
California leads with 5.1 million
30%
administered doses. In general, the
United States is showing promising
Herd immunity at 70% progress: in comparison to the rest of
the world, the U.S. already managed to
vaccinate 14 percent of its population at
U.S. – 14.14% (thereof 3.41% second doses) of 100%
least once, while worldwide only 1.94
World – 1.94% of 100% percent received the vaccine.

26 Source(s): CDC and Statista

In the United States, over one and a half million doses have been
administered daily; at this pace immunity will be reached within 2021
Vaccination and what-if scenario, United States as of February 11, 2021
Cumulated and daily COVID 19 vaccinations and immunizations* in millions
Vaccinations Immunizations In addition, it becomes clear that the
1.2 million daily doses
reached in Feb average daily vaccinations and
40 2.5 immunizations are rapidly increasing over
time.
30 2
The goal of President Biden to reach 100
1.5 million administered vaccines by his 100th
20
1 day in office is likely to be exceeded.
10 By continuously increasing their current
0.5
average of almost 1.6m administered
0 0 vaccines per day, the country will be able
Dec-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Jan-21 Jan-21 Feb-21 Dec-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Jan-21 Jan-21 Feb-21 to reach herd immunity already in 2021.
The United States is on a promising way to
As-is situation, daily administered doses (last 7 days average) be the first country of the G20 countries
to reach herd immunity in 2021.
Daily doses 1,598,080

What-if: herd immunity by Dec 31, 2021

Daily doses 1,216,500

Note(s): : *Only Immunization by vaccines covered. Refers to number of doses required for a full vaccine coverage.
27 Source(s): CDC and Statista
While still leading by administered doses in the EU, Germany is
facing obstacles along the road
Vaccination progress by federal state and over time, Germany as of February 10, 2021
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania:
5.80%
Lower Saxony: 3.60%
Share of vaccinated
population
0%
2%
4%
6%
Herd immunity at 70%
Germany – 4.42% (thereof 1.42% second dose) of 100%
In comparison to the United States, the
European Union is trailing behind when it
comes to administered doses. Germany
administered the highest amount of
doses in the EU so far, but stays below
expectations with about 3.6
million injections in the first 2 months.
This delay is also caused by the amounts
of doses that have been ordered by the
European Union. The vaccines that have
been approved until February in the EU
only account for about half of the doses
in their total order.
Nevertheless, after a meeting in February
with pharma industry representatives,
German Chancellor Merkel seemed
confident to reach herd immunity in
Germany within 2021.

World – 1.94% of 100%

28 Source(s): Robert Koch Institut, Spiegel, Statista

Average daily vaccinations are steadily increasing, but at the
current speed, Germany will not achieve herd immunity in 2021
Vaccination and what-if scenario, Germany as of February 10, 2021
Cumulated and daily COVID 19 vaccinations and immunizations* in millions
Vaccinations Immunizations Germany managed to administer around 3.6
2.5 0.35 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines until mid-
0.30
February, with 1.1 million people
2 has having received a second injection and
0.25
and now have the complete vaccine dosage
1.5 0.20 2.8 times more
daily vaccinations needed needed for immunity.
1 0.15
While the daily average of administered
0.10 doses in Germany doubled from around
0.5
0.05 50,000 in the first week of 2021 to around
0 0.00 110,000 in February, it would still need to be
Dec-20 Jan-21 Jan-21 Jan-21 Feb-21 Dec-20 Jan-21 Jan-21 Jan-21 Feb-21 almost tripled to achieve herd immunity in
2021.
To achieve this, the focus is now on the on
As-is situation, daily administered doses (last 7 days average)
the approval of additional vaccines in the EU
Daily doses 110,714 to overcome current supply chain
bottlenecks. Consequently, improvement of
What-if: herd immunity by Dec 31, 2021 the distribution capabilities will be pivotal.
Daily doses 315,200

Note(s): : * Only Immunization by vaccines covered. Refers to number of doses required for a full vaccine coverage.
29 Source(s): Robert Koch Institut and Statista
 After a slow start, France accelerated its vaccination campaign by
easing the requirements for accessing the vaccine
Vaccination progress (at least one dose) by state and over time, France as of February 10, 2021
By the 1st of January 2021, only around
500 people were vaccinated in France,
illustrating the slow start of the
Île-de-France: 2.66%
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté: campaign due to logistical and
5.43% administrative problems. Only after the
government decided to bring phase two
Share of vaccinated
of the vaccination campaign forward,
population things started to move ahead: The
0% change allowed access to the vaccine
not only for the elderly population (75+),
2% but also for caregivers, home helpers,
and firefighters older than 50 years. By
4%
mid-February, 2.5 million people (3.74
percent) have been vaccinated. This is
proportionally more than in the rest of
6%
the world, but still noticeably less than
in other economical and political
Herd immunity at 70%
heavyweights in Europe.
France – 3.74% ( thereof 0.66% second dose) of 100%

World – 1.94% of 100%

30 Source(s): Data.gov.fr, Statista

The French vaccination campaign just started to approach the
required daily vaccination average to reach 2021 herd immunity
Vaccination and what-if scenario, France as of February 10, 2021
Cumulated and daily COVID 19 vaccinations and immunizations* in millions
Vaccinations Immunizations If France keeps the current average of
2 0.30 daily administered vaccines, herd
immunity would be reached in more
0.25
1.5
than a year. In fact, France would have
0.20 to almost triple their current efforts to
2.5 times more
1 0.15
daily vaccinations finish COVID-19 vaccinations within
needed
2021.
0.10
0.5 In this regard, France is similar to
0.05 Germany and Italy, facing delays in the
0 0.00 delivery of already-approved vaccines
Dec-20 Jan-21 Jan-21 Jan-21 Feb-21 Feb-21 Dec-20 Jan-21 Jan-21 Jan-21 Feb-21 and waiting for other vaccines to be
approved by the European
Medicines Agency.
As-is situation, daily administered doses (last 7 days average)
The picture is likely to change when
Daily doses 96,706 more vaccines are approved,
especially those that require one
What-if: herd immunity by Dec 31, 2021 administration only for efficient
Daily doses 246,500 protection against COVID-19.

Note(s): *Only Immunization by vaccines covered. Refers to number of doses required for a full vaccine coverage.
31 Source(s): covidtracker.fr, data.gov.fr, Our World in Data, Statista
Relative to its population, Italy‘s vaccination campaign is
proceeding faster than in other large countries of the Union
Vaccination progress (at least one dose) by state and over time, Italy as of February 11, 2021
Bolzano: 8.42% With 4.7 vaccinations per 100
inhabitants, Italy shows one of the
highest ratios within the European
Union so far. Lombardy, Italian’s most
populated region and the most heavily
affected by COVID-19 at the beginning of
Share of vaccinated
2020, is recording the fastest pace in the
Abruzzo: 3.37% population execution of the vaccination campaign.
0% However, since the beginning of
1%
February, the slow deliveries of vaccines
from the pharma companies to the EU
2% have been slowing down the progress in
Italy, too. In response to the delays, the
3%
country has been anticipating the
4% deployment of the AstraZeneca vaccine
– approved at the end of January in the
Herd immunity at 70% European Union – in order to continue
its campaign.
Italy – 4.71% (thereof 2.08% second dose) of 100%

World – 1.94% of 100%

32 Source(s): Our World in Data, Statista

Similar to Germany and France, Italy has to triple the vaccination
speed to reach herd immunity by the end of 2021
Vaccination and what-if scenario, Italy as of February 11, 2021
Cumulated and daily COVID 19 vaccinations and immunizations* in millions
Vaccinations Immunizations After the European shortage in
0.25
delivered vaccine doses in end of
January, the Italian regions
1.5
0.2 administered the remaining doses
3.3 times more
daily vaccinations
mainly as second injections. This
1 0.15
needed resulted in the highest immunization
0.1 ratios in Europe after Denmark and
0.5 Gibraltar as of February 2021.
0.05
Overall, however, Italy is trailing
0 0 behind when it comes to reaching
Dec-20 Jan-21 Jan-21 Jan-21 Feb-21 Feb-21 Dec-20 Jan-21 Jan-21 Jan-21 Feb-21 Feb-21 herd immunity within 2021 and
would need to triple the average
daily administered doses in order to
As-is situation, daily administered doses (last 7 days average) reach this ambitious target.
Daily doses 67,887 In fact, Italy would need to
administer almost 230,000 COVID-19
What-if: herd immunity by Dec 31, 2021 vaccine doses per day to overcome
Daily doses 229,900 the pandemic in the ongoing year.

Note(s): *Only Immunization by vaccines covered. Refers to number of doses required for a full vaccine coverage.
33 Source(s): Ministero della salute, Our World in Data, Statista
The emergency approval of the Pfizer vaccine in early December
2020 gave the United Kingdom a head start
Vaccination progress (at least one dose) by state and over time, United Kingdom as of February 10, 2021
As one of the first countries in the world, the
United Kingdom approved the Pfizer-
BioNTech vaccine in beginning of December
2020. This gave the country a head start with
its vaccination campaign, resulting in around
Scotland: 19.44% 20 vaccinations per 100 inhabitants as of the
Share of vaccinated
beginning of February.
population The vaccination campaign has taken a very
0% similar pace in all four countries of Great
5%
Britain, with the ratios of first
administrations ranging between 19 and 22
10% percent of the UK population. In perspective,
the United Kingdom is most likely to be the
Wales: 21.82% 15%
first large European country to reach herd
20% immunity. The United Kingdom is also likely
to be the pioneer in approving additional
Herd immunity at 70% vaccines in the upcoming weeks, in
particular the candidates from Novavax and
United Kingdom – 21.06% (thereof 0.79% second dose) of 100% Johnson & Johnson.

World – 1.94% of 100%

34 Sources: BBC, Gov.uk, Statista

With almost half a million injections per day, the United Kingdom is
on its way to achieve herd immunity within 2021
Vaccination and what-if scenario, United Kingdom as of February 10, 2021
Cumulated and daily COVID 19 vaccinations and immunizations* in millions
Vaccinations Immunizations In December, the UK government
16 0.7 decided to take a different route in their
14 0.6
Reached 285,000 vaccination campaign and prioritized
daily doses in January
12 the administration of the first doses of
0.5
10 the vaccines. Thus, the share of second
0.4 doses in the total number of
8
0.3 administered vaccines is rather small so
6
4 0.2 far, whereas the share of the population
2 0.1 that received the first dose is high when
0 0
compared to the other countries
Jan-21 Jan-21 Jan-21 Jan-21 Feb-21 Jan-21 Jan-21 Jan-21 Jan-21 Feb-21 analyzed in this DossierPlus.
In addition, the UK was reportedly less
affected by the shortages in the delivery
As-is situation, daily administered doses (last 7 days average) of COVID-19 vaccines than EU countries.
Daily doses 434,444 Overall, as of February 2021, herd
immunity against COVID-19 within 2021
What-if: herd immunity by Dec 31, 2021 appears achievable for the United
Daily doses Kingdom.
285,600

Note(s): *Only Immunization by vaccines covered. Refers to number of doses required for a full vaccine coverage.
35 Source(s): GOV.uk, Politico, Statista
04 Conclusion and Outlook
One year after the beginning of the pandemic, infections are in
the millions in the United States and in Europe
Overview, numbers as reported on February 11, 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus,

has established itself as a global challenge, both in finding effective short-term COVID-19 COVID-19
strategies to contain the infections (lockdowns, social distancing, increased cases casualties Vaccinations*
hygiene standards) and in setting up a long-term immunization strategy. In this
regard, the first two months of 2021 can be considered a transition period: on United States 27,381 475
the one hand, the daily numbers of COVID-19 infections and related casualties 14.1%

keep increasing the cumulative records; on the other hand, the momentum of
the vaccination campaigns allow hoping for the metaphorical “light at the end Germany 2,321 64 4.4%
of the tunnel”.

The United States and the United Kingdom appear to be impacted severely by
France 3,391 80 3.7%
the pandemic and, at the same time, at the forefront of the mass vaccination
campaign. The United States, as of February 2021, recorded over 27 million
COVID-19 infections and 475,000 casualties. The United Kingdom, origin
Italy 2,683 93 4.7%
country of the gravely concerning B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2’s mutation (see page 12),
has the highest number of infections (around 4.0 million) and casualties
(116,000) on the European continent. United Kingdom 3,999 116 21.1%

Cumulative As share of
(thousands) population

Note(s): *First doses administered

37 Source(s): John Hopkins University, Our World in Data, Statista
The COVID-19 vaccination campaigns are set to achieve herd
immunity by late 2021; some countries could reach this goal
Overview, numbers as reported on February 11, 2021

The declared target of the ongoing mass vaccination campaigns is to reach herd
immunity – a sufficient share of the population being immune against the virus Estimated increase to reach herd
immunity by end of 2021*
– to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In general, the higher the contagiousness of
a disease, the larger the share of the population that needs to be vaccinated to
attain herd immunity. For SARS-CoV-2, the threshold is estimated at 70 to 80
percent of the population. As analyzed in chapter 2, the production, delivery,
United States On target
=
and administration of enough COVID-19 vaccine doses in order to reach (and
2.8 times more daily
even exceed) this target has been calculated and initiated. The question Germany
administrations
remains: How fast can herd immunity be reached?

Focusing on the United States and large European countries, Statista analyzed 2.5 times more daily
France administrations
the daily administrations of COVID-19 vaccines as registered by the local health
authorities and compared it with the average daily number of administrations
necessary for reaching herd immunity by the 31st of December 2021**. The 3.3 times more daily
Italy administrations
United States and the United Kingdom appear to be administering enough
doses per day to reach herd immunity within 2021. In the last week, the United
States has administered almost 1.6 million doses per day, the United Kingdom
434,000. In the European Union, the vaccination campaigns appear to be
United Kingdom On target
=
progressing at a slower pace, with Germany, France, and Italy in need of tripling
their average daily administrations to meet the target.

Note(s): * Calculation based on daily vaccine administrations as of last 7 days average

**An immunized individual is hereby defined as an individual who received two doses, as all the approved COVID-19 vaccines as of February 2021 require two doses to guarantee the maximum
protection against SARS-CoV-2.
38 Source(s): Our World in Data, National health authorities, Statista
Glossary
Basic reproduction number (R0) Recorded casualties
This number describes the contagiousness of an infection, by showing Officially recorded deaths.
the expected infections caused by one infected person. A basic
reproduction number of 1 means one infected person infects one other SARS-CoV-2
person. A basic reproduction number below 1 means infections are A virus of the coronavirus family. The acronym stands for “severe acute
decreasing. respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2”.

Candidate vaccine Virus mutations

A vaccine undergoing the approval process of one (or more) health Genetic mutations occurring within the virus’ replication, some of which
authorities. Once the approval is granted, the vaccine can be might change the virus’ surface.
administered within the country/countries.

COVID-19
The human disease caused by an infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Herd immunity
Herd immunity occurs when a sufficient share of a population is
immune to a disease, thus not infecting others and subsequently
leading to the disease's eradication. The share of population required to
attain herd immunity is higher when the basic reproduction number is
higher.

39
Sources
ABC news
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
COVAX
Deutsche Welle
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
European Commission
Google Community Mobility Reports
Government of the United Kingdom
Ipsos MORI
historyofvaccines.org
Johns Hopkins University
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
The Lancet
Ministre des Solidarités et de la Santé
Ministero della Salute
The New Yoro Times
OECD
Our World in Data
Robert Koch Institut
Spiegel
Statista
Unicef
World Bank
World Health Organization (WHO)

40
Recommendations
DossierPlus
COVID-19: Economic downturn and recovery
COVID-19 measures and their effects on
mobility behavior
Environmental effects of COVID-19
Hospitals
Luxury travel and tourism in Europe amid the
pandemic
Coronavirus: impact on media consumption
worldwide
Social Movement: Black Lives Matter
Dossiers Further Reading
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) How e-Commerce is impacted by COVID-19
pandemic 2019-20 2020
Vaccine hesitancy in the U.S.
Vaccinations in Europe
Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the U.S.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) in New York
COVID-19 and mental health
Coronavirus: impact on the sport industry
worldwide
How eCommerce is impacted by COVID-19
Environmental effects of COVID-19

41
 Simone Caliò
Analyst
Simone Caliò is a data analyst with a
background in economics and econometrics.
Before joining Statista, he gained experience
in academic research and statistics methods.
E-MAIL
simone.calio@statista.com
42
Paul Greis
Analyst
Paul Greis is a social economist who
focuses on data analysis. He gained
experience at a large institute for applied
science and technology before joining
Statista.
E-MAIL
paul.greis@statista.com
W W W . S T A T I S T A . C O M
Jan-Lukas Pfeifer
Analyst
Jan-Lukas Pfeifer is a data analyst with a
background in econometrics and finance.
Before joining Statista, he worked as a data
and risk analyst for a large financial services
company.
E-MAIL
jan-lukas.pfeifer@statista.com