Matthew Mills

IE 5319
10/17/19

Homework 2

Q.1

E1 E2
E3 E4

E5

PT.1)

E1 = E3+C
E2 = D+E4
E3 = AB
E4 = E5(B)
E5 = A+C

T = (E1)E2
T = (E3+C)E2 = E3(E2)+C(E2)
T = (AB+C)E2+C(E2) = AB(E2)+C(E2)
T = AB(D+E4)+C(D+E4) = ABD+AB(E4)+CD+C(E4)
T = ABD+AB(E5)+CD+C(E5)B
T = ABD+AB(A+C)+CD+CB(A+C)

T = ABD+AB+ABC+CD+BC Minimal Cut Set

PT.2)
P(T) = P(ABD+ AB+ABC+CD+BC)
P(T) = 0.013+0.012+0.013+0.012+0.012

P(T) = 3.02x10-4 Top Event Probability

Q.2

PT.A)

No Risk = IAB
= IA(C1+C3
= IAC1+IAC3
= I(C1+C2)C1+I(C1+C2)C3

= IC1+IC1C2+IC1C3+IC2C3

Moderate Risk = IAB

= IB(C1+C2)
= IB(C1 C2)
= I(C1+C3) (C1 C2)
= IC1(C1 C2)+ IC3(C1 C2)

= IC3C1 C2

Major Risk = IB
= I(C1+C2)

= I C1 C2

PT.B)

Risk per year = P(IC3C1 C2)x10 injuries P(I C1 C2) x100 injuries
= 10-3 (0.005)(1-0.001)(1-0.008)(10) + 10-3 (1-0.001)(1-0.008)(100)
= 4.955x10-5 + 0.099
= 0.099
Q.3

PT.A)

Annual risk per individual exposed (R) is equal to the probability of event leading to exposure
divided by number of individuals exposed times the number of cancer deaths times the amount
of toxic material exposed to.

1
3 x 10−4
year m3 gram cancer death
R= ∗0.1∗0.0833 ∗0.01 ∗10
1500 individuals exposed min m 3
gram

R=1.6667 x 10−9

PT.B)

In order to increase the risk to 10-6, the exposure time must be increased to 6000 min, or

4.1667 days
Q.4

e−λt ( λt ) y
P ( y )=
y!

PT.A)

y=1
λ=3 hr
1
t= hr
6

1 1
−3 1
P ( 1 )=
e 6
( )
3
6
1!

P ( 1 )=0.303 Probability of system crash as a result of one events

PT.B)

1 2
−3 1
P ( 2 )=
e 6
( )
3
6
2!

P ( 2 )=0. 076 Probability of system crash as a result of two events

Q.5

PT.A)

Steak = -2000a+4000(1-a)
= 4000-6000a

Chicken = -1000a+3000(1-a)
= 3000-4000a

Fish = 500a+3000(1-a)
= 3000-2500a

10 4
1

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

If a is less than 0.12, steak is the best option, otherwise fish is the best option
PT.B)

Steak = 4000(0.5)+3000(0.4)+(-2000)(0.1)
= 3000

Chicken = 3000(0.5)+1500(0.4)+(-1000)(0.1)
= 2000

Fish = 3000(0.5)+750(0.4)+50)(0.1)
= 1850

Steak is the best option