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LARGE AND GROWING BODY OF EVIDENCE SUG- Most of the evidence for an anticancer potential in chocolate
gests that flavonoids in chocolate and cocoa have is from laboratory and animal studies.8 To date, there have
the potential to decrease the risk of cancer in been no published long-term randomized trials of the effects
humans.1-9 Chocolate, particularly dark chocolate, is of chocolate on cancer risk in humans. Some small-scale short-
a major source of flavonoids, a subgroup of dietary phyto- term human trials have yielded evidence indicating that
chemicals.1 Cocoa flavonoids are thought to reduce the risk of chocolate or flavonoid intake has beneficial effects on factors
cancer via a number of biological mechanisms that include that could attenuate oncogenesis such as antioxidant capacity
enhancing immune response,2 decreasing indicators of and inflammatory markers.9 One ecologic study found an in-
oxidative stress,3 modulating inflammatory responses,4,5 verse association between cocoa intake and cancer among the
apoptosis,6 cellular proliferation, and reducing angiogenesis Kuna tribe living in the Panamanian San Blas islands, a pop-
and metastasis.8 ulation documented to have a high cocoa intake.10
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Figure 1. Participant flowchart for total cancer, showing the number of available participants, the numbers meeting different
inclusion criteria, and the number included in the analytic sample. BMI ¼ body mass index; FFQ ¼ food frequency questionnaire;
WHI ¼ Women’s Health Initiative.
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Figure 2. Chocolate candy intake and the risk of total cancer in the Women’s Health Initiative. CI ¼ confidence interval; CL ¼
confidence limit.
variable,22 which replaced age and race or ethnicity; (3) for essentially no changes in HR estimates or 95% confidence
colorectal cancer: number of close female or male relatives intervals (CIs).
with age < 45 years and preexisting colorectal cancer; prior Restricted-cubic-splines26 versions of continuous cova-
colonoscopy (yes or no); preexisting diabetes (yes or no); and riates and ordinal and categorical covariates with 5 levels
preexisting ulcerative colitis or Cohn’s disease (yes or no); were used if they caused a significant increase in the model’s
and (4) for lung cancer: preexisting emphysema (yes or no). likelihood ratio. Figures 2 through 5 and P-curvature27 were
BMI was not included as a covariate in the main analyses derived from Cox regression analyses in which the exposure
due to its potential role as a mediator variable. BMI was variable was a restricted cubic splines version of the
tested for interaction effects. In a sensitivity analysis, the ef- exposure.
fects of including BMI as a covariate were assessed. Significance of the linear trend across quartiles of chocolate
intake (P-linear) used the median value in each quartile as a
continuous variable. Differences between the fit of restricted
Statistical Power Calculations
cubic splines curves in Figures 2 through 5 and linear curves
Equation 1 in Hsieh and Lavori23 was used to estimate the were assessed by means of the likelihood ratio test.
number of events needed to be able to detect a hazard ratio Based on a priori hypotheses, BMI was tested for interac-
(HR) decrease of 0.20 or an increase of 0.25 at the 2-sided 5% tion effects by inserting a cross-product of the predictor and
significance level with a statistical power of 80%. It was BMI into the full model.
assumed that the predictor was divided into quartiles and Two-sided P < .05 was considered significant, except that
that the survival analyses were performed with Cox regres- 2-sided P < 0.1 was the criterion for tests of interaction. SAS
sion. The number of needed events was estimated as 1686. version 9.4 (SAS Institute Inc, Cary, NC, 2019) was used for all
analyses.
Statistical Methods The WHI study is registered at Clinictrials.gov
Multivariable adjusted Cox regression HRs were estimated for (#NCT00000611). The manuscript was prepared using the
each outcome cancer event in different levels of chocolate STROBE guidelines for observational studies.28
intake frequency and for a 1 oz/d (28.4 g/d) increment. The
proportional hazards assumption was tested by means of
Schoenfeld residuals. The effects of potential non- Ethical Statement
proportionality on HR estimates were assessed by means of The WHI study protocol (available at www.whi.org) was
time-dependent Cox regression analysis.24,25 This latter approved by institutional review boards at each participating
analysis showed that the potential nonproportionality caused institution, and all participants provided written informed
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Figure 3. Chocolate candy intake and the risk of invasive breast cancer in the Women’s Health Initiative. CI ¼ confidence interval;
CL ¼ confidence limit.
Figure 4. Chocolate candy intake and the risk of invasive colorectal cancer in the Women’s Health Initiative. CI ¼ confidence in-
terval; CL ¼ confidence limit.
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Figure 5. Chocolate candy intake and the risk of invasive lung cancer in the Women’s Health Initiative. CI ¼ confidence interval;
CL ¼ confidence limit.
consent. The study was conducted in accordance with the for uncensored participants in the full-model survival ana-
Helsinki Declaration of 1975 as revised in 1989.29 lyses for total, breast, lung, and colorectal cancer,
respectively.
RESULTS In the full-model analyses, there were no significant HRs
for total or breast cancer (Table 2 and Figures 2 and 3). There
Participant Baseline Characteristics
was a modest significant positive association between choc-
Sixty-nine percent of the participants reported consuming a 1
olate intake and the risk of colorectal cancer only for women
oz serving of chocolate more often than monthly (Table 1).
who ate a 1 oz (28.4 g) serving of chocolate 1.5 times/wk
Higher frequency of chocolate intake was associated with (1)
(Table 2 and Figure 4). The restricted cubic splines curve
higher BMI, total energy intake, nonchocolate energy intake,
(Figure 4) was not a better fit than the linear curve (P-linear ¼
and the Gail Model-2 breast cancer risk indicator and (2) a
.02, P-curvature ¼ .03, P for difference ¼ .63). For lung cancer,
higher proportion of participants who were White, had a
the HRs were slightly and significantly lower than 1.0 for
high-school diploma or some college education, consumed
chocolate intakes of <1.5 servings/wk (Table 2 and Figure 5).
an alcoholic drink between once per week and once per day,
The restricted cubic splines curve (Figure 5) was a better fit
were current smokers, had 1 or more close relative who had
than the linear curve (P-linear ¼ .64, P-curvature ¼ .01, P for
had cancer, had previous mammograms, were currently us-
difference ¼ .005).
ing female hormones, or had preexisting emphysema.
Tests of interaction for BMI in the full-model analyses were
Conversely, higher frequency of chocolate consumption was
not significant for total (P ¼ .79), breast (P ¼ .51), colorectal
associated with (1) lower levels of physical activity and diet
(P ¼ .33), or lung (P ¼ .96) cancer.
quality and (2) a lower proportion of participants who were
non-White, had less than a high school diploma, abstained
from alcohol consumption or consumed alcohol more than Sensitivity and Secondary Analyses
once a day, or had preexisting diabetes. An exploratory analysis was performed with the full model
and the combination of the 13 cancers for which there is
Prospective Association Between Chocolate relatively strong evidence that obesity is a risk factor16 as
Consumption and Invasive Cancer Risk outcome variable. These cancers are adenocarcinoma of the
After all exclusions, there were 96,045, 95,342, 104,845, and esophagus, postmenopausal breast, gallbladder, stomach,
105,374 participants and 16,164, 6038, 1763, and 1965 inci- liver, pancreatic, renal, ovarian, uterine, thyroid, and colo-
dent cases, representing an incidence rate of 17.0, 6.3, 1.9, and rectal cancer, as well as meningioma and multiple myeloma.
1.7 per 100 participants and 12.3, 4.4, 1.3, and 1.1 per 1000 The results were similar to those for breast cancer in Table 2.
person years, during a mean follow-up period of 14.7 years The HR for a first occurrence of 1 of the obesity-related
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Table 1. Baseline characteristicsa of postmenopausal women in different levels of chocolate candy consumption in the Women’s
Health Initiative
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Table 1. Baseline characteristicsa of postmenopausal women in different levels of chocolate candy consumption in the Women’s
Health Initiative (continued)
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Table 2. Chocolate intake, HRsa, and 95% CIsb for incidence of different types of invasive cancer in the WHIcd
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Table 2. Chocolate intake, HRsa, and 95% CIsb for incidence of different types of invasive cancer in the WHIcd (continued)
cancers was 1.00 for a 1 oz serving of chocolate <1 time/mo, between chocolate candy consumption and invasive colo-
0.99 (95% CI: 0.93-1.05) for 1 time/mo to <0.5 times/wk, 1.04 rectal cancer among women who ate chocolate most
(95% CI: 0.98-1.09) for 0.5 to <1.5 times/wk, and 1.01 (95% CI: frequently. The increased risk of incidence of colorectal can-
0.96-1.07) for 1.5 times/wk (P-linear ¼.67, P-curvature ¼ .55, cer was 18% (95% CI: 4%-35%) for women who consumed a 1
P for difference ¼ .41). oz serving 1.5 times/wk. This positive association was
The full-model analyses in Table 2 were repeated after robust in that it was also observed in 3 exploratory sensitivity
adding BMI as a covariate due to its potential role as a analyses. Given that adiposity is an established risk factor for
mediator variable for the 2 cancers for which excess adiposity colorectal cancer,16 this result may be attributable to the
is an established risk factor—breast and colorectal cancer. A excess adiposity associated with frequent chocolate candy
similar exploratory analysis was performed for the combined consumption in WHI participants.30 Supporting this idea is
obesity-related cancers. All 9 of the nonreferent HRs showed the fact that WHI participants who were more frequent
a change in the second or third decimal place, which brought consumers of chocolate also consumed more dietary energy
them closer to the null value of 1.0. (See Table 3, available at and food of lower dietary quality (see Table 1).
www.jandonline.org.) Two previously published case-control studies of the as-
Time-dependent Cox regression was used in the full-model sociation between chocolate consumption among adults and
analyses in Table 2 as an exploratory analysis to assess the the risk of colorectal cancer were identified. The first study by
effect of updating the predictor at year 3, when the WHI FFQ McKelvey et al12 focused on American adults between the
was readministered. The results were very similar to those in ages of 30 and 89. There was no significant association be-
Tables 2. (See Table 4, available at www.jandonline.org.) tween chocolate candy intake and the prevalence of colo-
The full-model analyses in Table 2 were repeated after rectal adenomas in their second or third tertile of intake
adding participants in the 3 WHI CT intervention groups to when compared with their first tertile. This result conflicts
our analytic sample. The purpose was to explore the effects of with the finding here of a significant positive association in
including these participants in the survival analyses. The re- the fourth quartile among WHI women when compared with
sults were similar to those in Table 2, except that there were the first quartile. On the other hand, the second study, by
fewer significant HRs for the analyses for colorectal and lung Boutron-Ruault et al14 did find an elevated risk of colorectal
cancer. (See Table 5, available at www.jandonline.org.) cancer among women (and men) in their third quartile of
chocolate intake in French adults between the age of 30 and
79 years. This result is similar to the present finding, and
DISCUSSION French and American per-capita chocolate candy consump-
This prospective analysis of data from postmenopausal tion was similar in the 1990s31 when Boutron-Ruault and the
women in the WHI cohort yielded a weak positive association WHI assessed chocolate intake among their participants.
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20. Hu FB, Stampfer M, Rimm E, et al. Dietary fat and coronary heart 29. World Medical Association. World Medical Association Declara-
disease: A comparison of approaches for adjusting for total energy tion of Helsinki—Ethical Principles for Medical Research
intake and modeling repeated dietary measurements. Am J Epi- Involving Human Subjects. Revised edition, Hong Kong, China:
demiol. 1999;149:531-540. 41st World Medical Assembly, 1989. Accessed February 3, 2020.
21. Chiuve SE, Fung TT, Rimm EB, et al. Alternative dietary indices both https://www.wma.net/policies-post/wma-declaration-of-helsinki-
strongly predict risk of chronic disease. J Nutr. 2012;142(6):1009-1018. ethical-principles-for-medical-research-involving-human-subjects/.
22. Gail M, Costantino J, Bryant J, et al. Weighing the risks and benefits of 30. Greenberg JA, Manson JE, Buijsse B, et al. Chocolate-candy
tamoxifen treatment for preventing breast cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst. consumption and 3-year weight gain among post-
1999;91:1829-1846. menopausal U.S. women. Obesity (Silver Spring). 2015;23(3):
677-683.
23. Hsieh FY, Lavori PW. Sample-size calculations for the Cox propor-
tional hazards regression model with nonbinary covariates. Control 31. Seligson FH, Krummel DA, Apgar JL. Patterns of chocolate con-
Clin Trials. 2000;21(6):552-560. sumption. Am J Clin Nutr. 1994;60(6 Suppl):1060S-1064S.
24. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow L. Applied survival analysis: Regression 32. Langer RD, White E, Lewis CE, Kotchen JM, Hendrix SL, Trevisan M.
modeling of time to event data. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons; The Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study: Baseline char-
1999:205-216. acteristics of participants and reliability of baseline measures. Ann
Epidemiol. 2003;13(S9):S107-S121.
25. Allison P. Survival Analysis Using SAS: A practical guide. 2nd ed. Cary,
NC: SAS Institute Inc; 2010:175-179. 33. Knuiman MW, Divitini ML, Buzas JS, Fitzgerald PE. Adjustments for
26. Harrell FE. Regression modeling strategies. With applications to linear regression dilution in epidemiological regression analysis. Ann Epi-
models, logistic regression, and survival analysis. 2nd ed. New York, demiol. 1998;8:56-63.
NY: Springer-Verlag Inc; 2015:18-30. 34. Spearman C. The proof and measurement of association between
27. Zhou A, Hyppönen E. Long-term coffee consumption, caffeine two things. Am J Psychol. 1904;15:72-101.
metabolism genetics, and risk of cardiovascular disease: A prospec- 35. United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research
tive analysis of up to 347,077 individuals and 8368 cases. Am J Clin Service. FoodData Central. 2019. Accessed May 30, 2019. https://fdc.
Nutr. 2019;109(3):509-516. nal.usda.gov/.
28. von Elm E, Altman DG, Egger M, et al. Strengthening the Reporting of 36. Steinberg FM, Bearden MM, Keen CL. Cocoa and chocolate flavo-
Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement: Guidelines noids: Implications for cardiovascular health. J Am Diet Assoc.
for reporting observational studies. BMJ. 2007;335(7624):806-808. 2003;103(2):215-223.
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AUTHOR INFORMATION
J. A. Greenberg is an emeritus professor, Department of Health and Nutrition Sciences, Brooklyn College of the City University of New York,
Brooklyn. M. L. Neuhouser is the program head and L. F. Tinker is a nutrition scientist, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer
Research Center, Seattle, WA. D. S. Lane is a distinguished service professor and vice chair, Department of Family, Population and Preventive
Medicine, School of Medicine, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY. E. D. Paskett is a Marion N. Rowley professor of cancer research,
Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, College of Medicine, Comprehensive Cancer Center, and S. Sealy-
Jefferson is an assistant professor, Division of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, both at Ohio State University, Columbus, OH. L. V. Van Horn
is the chief of nutrition, Department of Preventive Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL. S. Wassertheil-
Smoller is a distinguished university professor emerita, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine,
Bronx, NY. J. M. Shikany is an endowed professor of cardiovascular disease and associate director for research, Division of Preventive Medicine,
School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham. L. Qi is a professor, Department of Public Health Sciences, School of Medicine,
University of California Davis. J. E. Manson is a professor, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School,
Boston, MA.
Address correspondence to: James A. Greenberg, PhD, Department of Health & Nutrition Sciences, Brooklyn College of the City University of New
York, 2900 Bedford Ave, Brooklyn, NY 11201. E-mail: jamesg@brooklyn.cuny.edu
STATEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST
J. E. Manson and colleagues at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School are recipients of funding from Mars Symbioscience for an
investigator-initiated randomized trial of cocoa flavanols and chronic disease outcomes. No potential conflict of interest was reported by the
other authors.
FUNDING/SUPPORT
The Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) program is funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH)/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI),
US Department of Health and Human Services through contracts HHSN268201600018C, HHSN268201600001C, HHSN268201600002C,
HHSN268201600003C, and HHSN268201600004C. In addition, the following authors had funding related to this project: J. E. Manson had partial
support from HHSN268201100001C from NIH/NHLBI, the Women’s Health Initiative program. J. E. Manson and colleagues at Brigham and
Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School are recipients of funding from Mars Symbioscience for an investigator-initiated randomized trial of
cocoa flavanols and chronic disease outcomes. L. F. Tinker and M. L. Neuhouser received support from NIH/NHLBI, US Department of Health and
Human Services contract HHSN268201100046C. D. S. Lane received support from Stony Brook WHI Center grant, NHLBI contract no. NO1-WH-4-
2115.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Many thanks to the WHI Investigators (see the Appendix, available at www.jandonline.org) for their efforts in the collection of the WHI data.
AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
J. A. Greenberg, J. E. Manson, and L. Qi designed the research. J. A. Greenberg analyzed the data. J. A. Greenberg, J. E. Manson, L. F. Tinker, J. M.
Shikany, and M. L. Neuhouser interpreted data. J. A. Greenberg wrote the paper and had primary responsibility for final content. J. A. Greenberg,
J. E. Manson, L. F. Tinker, M. L. Neuhouser, D. S. Lane, E. D. Paskett, L. V. Van Horn, S. Wassertheil-Smoller, S. Sealy-Jefferson, J. M. Shikany, and L. Qi
read, edited, and approved the final manuscript before submission.
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Table 3. Chocolate intake, HRsa, and 95% CIsb for incidence of invasive breast, colorectal and the other 11 obesity-related
cancers with body mass index as a covariate in the Women’s Health Initiativec
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Table 4. Chocolate intake, time-dependent covariate HRsa, and 95% CIsb for incidence of different types of invasive cancer in
the Women’s Health Initiativec
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Table 5. Chocolate intake, covariate HRsa, and 95% CIsb for incidence of different types of invasive cancer, with all clinical trial
participants in the Women’s Health Initiativec
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