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RESEARCH

Original Research: Brief

Chocolate Candy and Incident Invasive Cancer


Risk in the Women’s Health Initiative: An
Observational Prospective Analysis
James A. Greenberg, PhD; Marian L. Neuhouser, PhD, RD; Lesley F. Tinker, PhD, RD; Dorothy S. Lane, MD, PhD;
Electra D. Paskett, MSPH, PHD; Linda V. Van Horn, PhD; Sylvia Wassertheil-Smoller, PhD; James M. Shikany, DrPH; Lihong Qi, PhD;
Shawnita Sealy-Jefferson, PhD, MPH; JoAnn E. Manson, MD, DrPH

ARTICLE INFORMATION ABSTRACT


Article history: Background Laboratory and animal studies suggest an inverse association between
Submitted 10 October 2019 chocolate consumption and the risk of cancer. Epidemiological studies have yielded
Accepted 9 June 2020 inconsistent evidence.
Objective To assess the association of chocolate candy consumption with incident,
Keywords: invasive total, breast, colorectal, and lung cancers in a large cohort of postmenopausal
Women’s Health Initiative American women.
Chocolate consumption
Invasive cancer
Design Prospective cohort study with a mean 14.8-year follow-up. Chocolate candy
Invasive colorectal cancer intake was assessed by food frequency questionnaire. Invasive cancer events were
Obesity assessed by physician adjudication.
Participants/setting The Women’s Health Initiative Study enrolled 161,808 post-
Supplementary materials:
Tables 3, 4, and 5 and the Appendix are available at
menopausal women at 40 clinical centers nationwide between 1993 and 1998. Of these
www.jandonline.org. women, 114,281 with plausible food frequency or biometric data and no missing data on
chocolate candy exposure were selected for analysis.
2212-2672/Copyright ª 2021 by the Academy of
Main outcome measures Cancer risk in quartiles of chocolate candy consumption with
Nutrition and Dietetics. the first quartile as referent.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jand.2020.06.014 Statistical analyses Multivariable Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios
and 95% confidence intervals.
Results There were 16,164 documented incident invasive cancers, representing an inci-
dence rate of 17.0 per 100 participants and 12.3 per 1000 person years during follow-up
among participants without any preexisting cancers or missing outcome data. There were
no statistically significant associations for total invasive cancer (P-linear ¼ .47, P-
curvature ¼ .14), or invasive breast cancer (P-linear ¼ .77, P-curvature ¼ .26). For colo-
rectal cancer P-linear was .02, P-curvature was .03, and compared with women eating a 1
oz (28.4 g) chocolate candy serving <1 time per month, the hazard ratio for 1.5 times/
wk was 1.18 (95% confidence interval: 1.04-1.35). This result may be attributable to the
excess adiposity associated with frequent chocolate candy consumption.
Conclusions In the Women’s Health Initiative, there was no significant association
between chocolate candy consumption and invasive total or breast cancer. There was a
modest 18% higher risk of invasive colorectal cancer for women who ate chocolate
candy at least 1.5 times/wk. These results require confirmation.
J Acad Nutr Diet. 2021;121(2):314-326.

A
LARGE AND GROWING BODY OF EVIDENCE SUG- Most of the evidence for an anticancer potential in chocolate
gests that flavonoids in chocolate and cocoa have is from laboratory and animal studies.8 To date, there have
the potential to decrease the risk of cancer in been no published long-term randomized trials of the effects
humans.1-9 Chocolate, particularly dark chocolate, is of chocolate on cancer risk in humans. Some small-scale short-
a major source of flavonoids, a subgroup of dietary phyto- term human trials have yielded evidence indicating that
chemicals.1 Cocoa flavonoids are thought to reduce the risk of chocolate or flavonoid intake has beneficial effects on factors
cancer via a number of biological mechanisms that include that could attenuate oncogenesis such as antioxidant capacity
enhancing immune response,2 decreasing indicators of and inflammatory markers.9 One ecologic study found an in-
oxidative stress,3 modulating inflammatory responses,4,5 verse association between cocoa intake and cancer among the
apoptosis,6 cellular proliferation, and reducing angiogenesis Kuna tribe living in the Panamanian San Blas islands, a pop-
and metastasis.8 ulation documented to have a high cocoa intake.10

314 JOURNAL OF THE ACADEMY OF NUTRITION AND DIETETICS ª 2021 by the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics.
RESEARCH

Results from observational epidemiological studies are


mixed, although most have found no association between RESEARCH SNAPSHOT
chocolate intake and cancer risk.11-15
Research Question: Is long-term consumption of chocolate
The objective was to add empirical evidence from a pro-
candy associated with increased risk of invasive cancers
spective study on the association between chocolate intake
and the risk of cancer in postmenopausal American women. A
among postmenopausal American women?
priori null hypotheses were that in the prospective Women’s Key Findings: In this prospective study within the Women’s
Health Initiative (WHI) cohort there would be no significant Health Initiative cohort, there was no significant association
associations between chocolate candy (chocolate) intake and between chocolate candy consumption and invasive total or
the risk of total cancer and the 3 most common cancer invasive breast cancer. There was a significant modest 18%
types—breast, colorectal, and lung cancer. An additional hy- higher risk of invasive colorectal cancer for women who ate
pothesis was that body mass index (BMI) is a mediator var-
at least 1.5 oz of chocolate candy per week.
iable in the association between chocolate consumption and
risk of the 2 cancers for which excess adiposity is an estab-
lished risk factor—breast and colorectal cancers.16 and 1.5 times/wk. Cut points were selected that resulted in
levels corresponding as closely as possible to quartiles, given
MATERIALS AND METHODS that the lowest level (<1 time/mo) contained more than 30%
of cases. A continuous version of chocolate intake was also
Participants
created—the number of 1 oz servings consumed per day.
The design and conduct of the WHI have been described
previously.17 Briefly, 161,808 postmenopausal women 50 to
79 years of age were enrolled into the WHI observational Outcome Variables
study (OS) or 1 or more overlapping clinical trials (CTs) be- The outcome event was the first occurrence of the invasive
tween 1993 and 1998. The OS is a prospective follow-up cancer being analyzed. Cancers graded as in situ and cancer
study. Data on OS and CT participant characteristics and deaths were excluded. For total cancer, all forms of cancer
morbidity and mortality are collected on a continuing basis. except nonmelanoma skin cancer were included. All reported
Follow-up for our analysis ended on February 28, 2017. events were confirmed and adjudicated based on reviews of
Of the original 161,808 women, 93,676 OS and 68,132 CT medical records and pathology reports by trained WHI phy-
subjects, all OS and CT participants in a control arm (CT sicians.19 Participants were followed from the baseline survey
controls) were selected. Next, the following women were (1993-1998) to the first occurrence of the cancer being
excluded: those (1) with implausible self-reported energy analyzed, loss to follow-up, or the end of follow-up on
intake by food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), defined as February 28, 2017, whichever occurred first. Participants were
<600 kcal/d or >5000 kcal/d; (2) with implausible anthro- censored if and when they were lost to follow-up or died
pometric measures, including BMI, defined as <15 or >50, from a cause other than the cancer being analyzed. Partici-
and height, defined as <122 cm (4 ft); (3) with preexisting pants were also censored if and when they were diagnosed
cancer or missing values on preexisting cancer at baseline; with a cancer different from the cancer being analyzed prior
and (4) with missing values for any outcome or covariate to the first occurrence of the cancer being analyzed. None of
variables This left 95,046 women who provided the data used the outcome events changed during the course of the study
in the analysis for total cancer (see Fig 1); and 95,342 for or during post hoc analyses.
breast cancer, 104,845 for colorectal cancer, and 105,374 for
lung cancer. Covariates
Data were missing for <1.5% for all predictor, outcome, and Two regression models were built for each type of cancer. In
confounder variables, except for the following 4 covariates: the basic model the covariates were age in years; race or
use of female hormones (the missing percentage was 2.4%), ethnicity (White, Black, Hispanic or other); and WHI study
recreational physical activity (2.9%), previous colonoscopy or arm (OS or CT controls). All full models included the
sigmoidoscopy (3.3%), and preexisting emphysema (4.7%). following established risk-factor variables: smoking status
(never, past, or current smoker); total recreational energy
Chocolate Intake expended in metabolic equivalent of task hours per week
The exposure variable, chocolate consumption, was assessed including walking and mild, moderate, and strenuous phys-
by the baseline self-administered WHI FFQ.18 A single line ical activity; nonchocolate daily energy intake20; the Revised
item on chocolate asked how often over the past 3 months Alternative Healthy Eating Index21; alcohol intake with 6
the participant ate a portion of “chocolate candy and candy levels; and education (<high school, some high school to
bars” and to specify whether the portion was small (0.5 oz or <college, some college to <postgraduate study, or
14.2 g), medium (1 oz or 28.4 g), or large (0.75 oz or 42.6 g). postgraduate study or degree). Full models were also
There were 9 frequency options—never or less than monthly, adjusted for additional covariates for the following cancers:
1 per month, 2 to 3 per month, 1 per week, 2 per week, 3 to 4 (1) for total cancer: close relatives with a history of any type
per week, 5 to 6 per week, 1 per day, and 2 or more per day. of cancer (none, 1 male or female relative, or both a male and
Each participant’s responses were converted by WHI re- female relative); (2) for breast cancer: total months spent
searchers into the number of medium (1 oz) servings per day. breastfeeding; number of live births; female hormone usage
For this study, 4 levels of intake frequency of a 1 oz serving of (never, previous or current); previous mammograms (yes or
chocolate were derived from the WHI data: <1 time/mo, 1 no); close relatives with age <45 years and a history of breast
time/mo to <0.5 times/wk, 0.5 times/wk to <1.5 times/wk, cancer (0-5); age at menopause; and a Gail model-2

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Figure 1. Participant flowchart for total cancer, showing the number of available participants, the numbers meeting different
inclusion criteria, and the number included in the analytic sample. BMI ¼ body mass index; FFQ ¼ food frequency questionnaire;
WHI ¼ Women’s Health Initiative.

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Figure 2. Chocolate candy intake and the risk of total cancer in the Women’s Health Initiative. CI ¼ confidence interval; CL ¼
confidence limit.

variable,22 which replaced age and race or ethnicity; (3) for essentially no changes in HR estimates or 95% confidence
colorectal cancer: number of close female or male relatives intervals (CIs).
with age < 45 years and preexisting colorectal cancer; prior Restricted-cubic-splines26 versions of continuous cova-
colonoscopy (yes or no); preexisting diabetes (yes or no); and riates and ordinal and categorical covariates with 5 levels
preexisting ulcerative colitis or Cohn’s disease (yes or no); were used if they caused a significant increase in the model’s
and (4) for lung cancer: preexisting emphysema (yes or no). likelihood ratio. Figures 2 through 5 and P-curvature27 were
BMI was not included as a covariate in the main analyses derived from Cox regression analyses in which the exposure
due to its potential role as a mediator variable. BMI was variable was a restricted cubic splines version of the
tested for interaction effects. In a sensitivity analysis, the ef- exposure.
fects of including BMI as a covariate were assessed. Significance of the linear trend across quartiles of chocolate
intake (P-linear) used the median value in each quartile as a
continuous variable. Differences between the fit of restricted
Statistical Power Calculations
cubic splines curves in Figures 2 through 5 and linear curves
Equation 1 in Hsieh and Lavori23 was used to estimate the were assessed by means of the likelihood ratio test.
number of events needed to be able to detect a hazard ratio Based on a priori hypotheses, BMI was tested for interac-
(HR) decrease of 0.20 or an increase of 0.25 at the 2-sided 5% tion effects by inserting a cross-product of the predictor and
significance level with a statistical power of 80%. It was BMI into the full model.
assumed that the predictor was divided into quartiles and Two-sided P < .05 was considered significant, except that
that the survival analyses were performed with Cox regres- 2-sided P < 0.1 was the criterion for tests of interaction. SAS
sion. The number of needed events was estimated as 1686. version 9.4 (SAS Institute Inc, Cary, NC, 2019) was used for all
analyses.
Statistical Methods The WHI study is registered at Clinictrials.gov
Multivariable adjusted Cox regression HRs were estimated for (#NCT00000611). The manuscript was prepared using the
each outcome cancer event in different levels of chocolate STROBE guidelines for observational studies.28
intake frequency and for a 1 oz/d (28.4 g/d) increment. The
proportional hazards assumption was tested by means of
Schoenfeld residuals. The effects of potential non- Ethical Statement
proportionality on HR estimates were assessed by means of The WHI study protocol (available at www.whi.org) was
time-dependent Cox regression analysis.24,25 This latter approved by institutional review boards at each participating
analysis showed that the potential nonproportionality caused institution, and all participants provided written informed

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Figure 3. Chocolate candy intake and the risk of invasive breast cancer in the Women’s Health Initiative. CI ¼ confidence interval;
CL ¼ confidence limit.

Figure 4. Chocolate candy intake and the risk of invasive colorectal cancer in the Women’s Health Initiative. CI ¼ confidence in-
terval; CL ¼ confidence limit.

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Figure 5. Chocolate candy intake and the risk of invasive lung cancer in the Women’s Health Initiative. CI ¼ confidence interval;
CL ¼ confidence limit.

consent. The study was conducted in accordance with the for uncensored participants in the full-model survival ana-
Helsinki Declaration of 1975 as revised in 1989.29 lyses for total, breast, lung, and colorectal cancer,
respectively.
RESULTS In the full-model analyses, there were no significant HRs
for total or breast cancer (Table 2 and Figures 2 and 3). There
Participant Baseline Characteristics
was a modest significant positive association between choc-
Sixty-nine percent of the participants reported consuming a 1
olate intake and the risk of colorectal cancer only for women
oz serving of chocolate more often than monthly (Table 1).
who ate a 1 oz (28.4 g) serving of chocolate 1.5 times/wk
Higher frequency of chocolate intake was associated with (1)
(Table 2 and Figure 4). The restricted cubic splines curve
higher BMI, total energy intake, nonchocolate energy intake,
(Figure 4) was not a better fit than the linear curve (P-linear ¼
and the Gail Model-2 breast cancer risk indicator and (2) a
.02, P-curvature ¼ .03, P for difference ¼ .63). For lung cancer,
higher proportion of participants who were White, had a
the HRs were slightly and significantly lower than 1.0 for
high-school diploma or some college education, consumed
chocolate intakes of <1.5 servings/wk (Table 2 and Figure 5).
an alcoholic drink between once per week and once per day,
The restricted cubic splines curve (Figure 5) was a better fit
were current smokers, had 1 or more close relative who had
than the linear curve (P-linear ¼ .64, P-curvature ¼ .01, P for
had cancer, had previous mammograms, were currently us-
difference ¼ .005).
ing female hormones, or had preexisting emphysema.
Tests of interaction for BMI in the full-model analyses were
Conversely, higher frequency of chocolate consumption was
not significant for total (P ¼ .79), breast (P ¼ .51), colorectal
associated with (1) lower levels of physical activity and diet
(P ¼ .33), or lung (P ¼ .96) cancer.
quality and (2) a lower proportion of participants who were
non-White, had less than a high school diploma, abstained
from alcohol consumption or consumed alcohol more than Sensitivity and Secondary Analyses
once a day, or had preexisting diabetes. An exploratory analysis was performed with the full model
and the combination of the 13 cancers for which there is
Prospective Association Between Chocolate relatively strong evidence that obesity is a risk factor16 as
Consumption and Invasive Cancer Risk outcome variable. These cancers are adenocarcinoma of the
After all exclusions, there were 96,045, 95,342, 104,845, and esophagus, postmenopausal breast, gallbladder, stomach,
105,374 participants and 16,164, 6038, 1763, and 1965 inci- liver, pancreatic, renal, ovarian, uterine, thyroid, and colo-
dent cases, representing an incidence rate of 17.0, 6.3, 1.9, and rectal cancer, as well as meningioma and multiple myeloma.
1.7 per 100 participants and 12.3, 4.4, 1.3, and 1.1 per 1000 The results were similar to those for breast cancer in Table 2.
person years, during a mean follow-up period of 14.7 years The HR for a first occurrence of 1 of the obesity-related

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Table 1. Baseline characteristicsa of postmenopausal women in different levels of chocolate candy consumption in the Women’s
Health Initiative

Frequency of Consumption of a 1 oz Serving of Chocolate Candy


<1/mo 1 to <0.5/wk 0.5 to <1.5/wk ‡1.5/wk
Characteristics (n [ 30,539) (n [ 19,110) (n [ 24,352) (n [ 24,467)

Variable for predictor ƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒmean (SDb)ƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒ!


Chocolate candy (1 oz servings/d)cd 0.00 (0.01) 0.04 (0.01) 0.11 (0.03) 0.57 (0.48)
Covariates for all cancers
Age (y)cd 64.0 (7.2) 63.7 (7.2) 63.3 (7.2) 63.5 (7.3)
BMIcde 26.8 (5.4) 27.1 (5.3) 27.6 (5.4) 28.0 (5.6)
f cdg
Physical activity (MET h/wk) 14.7 (15.1) 13.7 (14.1) 12.6 (13.3) 11.6 (13.0)
Total dietary energy (kcal/d)cd 1425 (539) 1494 (543) 1633 (574) 1899 (693
Nonchocolate energy (kcal/d)cd 1425 (539) 1489 (543) 1619 (574) 1825 (681)
Alternative Healthy Eating Indexcdh 54.6 (10.6) 53.4 (10.2) 52.3 (10.2) 50.7 (10.4)
Race or ethnicity c
ƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒ%ƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒ!
White 80.1 84.7 87.3 89.2
Black 9.9 7.4 6.5 5.1
Hispanic 5.0 3.3 2.3 2.0
Other 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.6
cg
Educational level
<High school 6.0 4.3 3.5 3.6
High school to <college 52.6 52.3 54.0 54.6
College to <postgraduate study 23.0 24.4 23.5 23.5
Postgraduate study or degree 18.4 19.0 19.0 18.3
Alcoholc
Nondrinker 12.3 10.5 9.1 9.7
Former drinker to <1 drink/wk 32.2 28.4 28.3 30.9
1 drink/wk to <1 drink/d 41.5 48.3 49.9 48.9
1 drink/d 14.1 12.8 12.7 10.5
c
Smoking
Never 50.6 51.3 50.2 50.5
Former 43.7 42.6 43.4 42.1
Current 5.7 6.1 6.4 7.4
Covariate for total cancer
Number of close relatives who had
cancerci
0 36.9 36.1 34.9 34.8
1 45.9 46.5 46.8 46.8
2 17.3 17.5 18.3 18.3
Covariates for breast cancer
Mammogram evercd 96.8 97.3 97.4 97.2
ƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒmean (SD)ƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒ!
Gail Model-2 breast cancer riskcdj 1.78 (1.01) 1.79 (1.00) 1.78 (0.99) 1.81 (1.00)
Age at menopause (y) 48.1 (6.4) 48.2 (6.3) 48.2 (6.3) 48.2 (6.3)
(continued on next page)

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Table 1. Baseline characteristicsa of postmenopausal women in different levels of chocolate candy consumption in the Women’s
Health Initiative (continued)

Frequency of Consumption of a 1 oz Serving of Chocolate Candy


<1/mo 1 to <0.5/wk 0.5 to <1.5/wk ‡1.5/wk
Characteristics (n [ 30,539) (n [ 19,110) (n [ 24,352) (n [ 24,467)

Female hormone usec ƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒ%ƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒ!


Never 31.5 28.2 28.7 28.9
In the past 22.1 21.5 21.4 22.2
Currently 46.4 50.2 49.9 48.9
i
Number of live births
0 12.8 12.0 12.4 12.9
1-3 60.1 61.2 60.5 59.7
4 27.2 26.8 27.1 27.4
Time breastfeeding (mo)
0 49.1 48.1 49.3 49.5
1-3 37.0 37.9 37.0 36.4
4 13.9 14.0 13.8 14.0
Number of close relatives aged<45 years
who had breast canceri
0 96.8 96.7 96.9 96.7
1 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.2
2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Covariates for colorectal cancer
Colonoscopy or sigmoidoscopy ever 53.8 54.6 53.8 53.7
Preexisting diabetescd 6.8 3.7 2.6 2.3
Preexisting colitis 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2
Number of close relatives aged<45 y
who had colorectal cancerg
0 97.0 97.2 97.1 97.1
1-3 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.9
4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Covariate for lung cancer
Emphysema everc 3.5 3.6 3.7 4.1
a
Data are for observational study and clinical trial control participants with (1) plausible food frequency questionnaire energy intakes, defined as mean intakes <600 kcal/d or >5,000 kcal/d;
BMI (<15 or >50); and height < 122 cm (4 ft) or (2) missing values for any of the characteristics in this table or any outcome variables in our survival analyses.
b
SD ¼ standard deviation.
c
This characteristic showed significant differences between levels of chocolate intake (P < .05) based on analysis of variance, Welch’s analysis of variance, or c2 test. P for trend was <.05 for
all continuous variables except age at menopause. P for trend, based on Cochran-Armitage test, was <.05 for all binary variables, except preexisting colitis and colonoscopy or
sigmoidoscopy ever.
d
P for trend was <.05. For bivariate variables, P for trend was based on the Cochran-Armitage test.
e
BMI ¼ body mass index (measured in kg/m2).
f
MET ¼ metabolic equivalent of task.
g
Educational level and physical activity were quantified by Women’s Health Initiative researchers. Physical activity was total energy expended in recreational physical activity.
h
The Modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index.21
i
Close relatives were defined as mother, father, sister, brother, daughter, or son.
j
Gail Model-2 Breast Cancer Risk22 was calculated by Women’s Health Initiative researchers.

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Table 2. Chocolate intake, HRsa, and 95% CIsb for incidence of different types of invasive cancer in the WHIcd

Frequencye of Chocolate Candy Consumption (1 oz Servings) P-linear /


Covariates in the model <1/mof 1/mo to <0.5/wk 0.5/wk to <1.5/wk ‡1.5/wk Total P-curvatureg

First occurrence of invasive


total cancer
Age, race or ethnicity, and .03 / .02
WHI study arm
HR (95% CI)h 1.00 0.99 (0.94-1.03) 1.03 (0.99-1.07) 1.04 (1.00-1.08)
i
No. of women 31,164 19,340 24,717 24,883 100,104
No. of eventsi 5,062 3,226 4,337 4,428 17,053
j
Full model .47 / .14
HR (95% CI) 1.00 0.98 (0.94-1.03) 1.02 (0.97-1.06) 1.01 (0.97-1.06)
No. of women 29,696 18,356 23,492 23,502 95,046
No. of events 4,814 3,053 4,136 4,161 16,164
First occurrence of invasive
breast cancer
Age, race or ethnicity, and
WHI study arm
HR (95% CI) 1.00 1.01 (0.94-1.08) 1.04 (0.98-1.11) 1.03 (0.97-1.10) .37 / .22
No. of women 33,433 20,765 26,493 26,663 107,354
No. of events 1,980 1,291 1,733 1,726 6,730
Full model .77 / .26
HR (95% CI) 1.00 0.98 (0.91-1.06) 1.02 (0.96-1.10) 0.99 (0.92-1.06)
No. of women 29,559 18,504 23,606 23,673 95,342
No. of events 1,770 1,156 1,570 1,542 6,038
First occurrence of invasive
colorectal cancer
Age, race or ethnicity, and .003 / .01
WHI study arm
HR (95% CI) 1.00 1.08 (0.94-1.23) 1.07 (0.94-1.21) 1.21 (1.07-1.36)
No. of women 35,149 21,757 27,609 27,869 112,384
No. of events 537 364 459 527 1,887
Full model .02 / .03
HR (95% CI) 1.00 1.08 (0.94-1.24) 1.07 (0.94-1.22) 1.18 (1.04-1.35)
No. of women 32,823 20,289 25,835 25,898 104,845
No. of events 501 337 432 493 1,763
First occurrence of invasive
lung cancer
Age, race or ethnicity, and .63 / .02
WHI study arm
HR (95% CI) 1.00 0.81 (0.71-0.92) 0.90 (0.81-1.01) 0.95 (0.85-1.07)
No. of women 34,994 21,688 27,614 27,836 112,132
No. of events 677 353 510 548 2,088
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Table 2. Chocolate intake, HRsa, and 95% CIsb for incidence of different types of invasive cancer in the WHIcd (continued)

Frequencye of Chocolate Candy Consumption (1 oz Servings) P-linear /


Covariates in the model <1/mof 1/mo to <0.5/wk 0.5/wk to <1.5/wk ‡1.5/wk Total P-curvatureg

Full model .64 / .01


HR (95% CI) 1.00 0.79 (0.69-0.90) 0.87 (0.78-0.99) 0.90 (0.80-1.01)
No. of women 32,958 20,375 26,000 26,041 105,374
No. of events 642 330 479 514 1,965
a
HR ¼ hazard ratio.
b
CI ¼ confidence interval.
c
WHI ¼ Women’s Health Initiative.
d
The analytic sample included observational study and clinical trial control participants with nonextreme self-reported dietary energy intake (600 and 5,000 kcal/d), body mass index
(15 and 50) and height (122 cm or 4 ft).
e
Frequency of chocolate intake was assessed by means of a semiquantitative food frequency question.
f
Referent chocolate consumption category.
g
P-linear was calculated using the median frequency of chocolate intake in each quartile as sole predictor in the model. P-curvature was the significance level of the restricted cubic splines
curve for the hazard ratio and chocolate intake.
h
HR (95% CI) determined by means of Cox regression.
i
No. of women at year 0 (baseline), the number of participants without preexisting cancer of the type in the outcome at year 0 who provided data on all variables at year 0. No. of events, the
number of new cases of the type of cancer in the outcome during the follow-up period for patients who were uncensored for the type of cancer in the outcome.
j
Full models were adjusted for the following covariates: age; race or ethnicity status (White, Black, Hispanic, other); WHI study arm (observational study and clinical trial control); smoking
status (never, past, <15/d, 15/d); total recreational energy expended in metabolic equivalent of task hours per week (includes walking; mild, moderate, and strenuous physical activity);
Alternative Health Eating Index 21; alcohol intake; education to <high school, some high school to <college, some college to <postgraduate study, postgraduate study or degree. Full
models were also adjusted for additional covariates for the following site-specific cancers: (1) total cancer—close relatives with a history of any type of cancer (0 ¼ no, 1 ¼ 1 male or female
relative, 2 ¼ both a male and female relative); (2) breast cancer—total months breast fed children (0-6), number of live births (0-7, 8þ), female hormone usage (0 ¼ never, 1 ¼ in the past,
2 ¼ current), previous mammograms (yes or no), close relatives with age <45 y and a history of breast cancer (0-5); age at menopause (20-60 y) and a Gail Model 2 variable,22 which
replaced age and race or ethnicity; (3) colorectal cancer—number of close female or male relatives diagnosed with colorectal cancer before the age of 45 y (0-5), prior colonoscopy or
sigmoidoscopy (yes or no), preexisting diabetes (yes or no) or preexisting ulcerative colitis or Crohn’s disease (yes or no); and (4) lung cancer—preexisting emphysema (yes or no).

cancers was 1.00 for a 1 oz serving of chocolate <1 time/mo, between chocolate candy consumption and invasive colo-
0.99 (95% CI: 0.93-1.05) for 1 time/mo to <0.5 times/wk, 1.04 rectal cancer among women who ate chocolate most
(95% CI: 0.98-1.09) for 0.5 to <1.5 times/wk, and 1.01 (95% CI: frequently. The increased risk of incidence of colorectal can-
0.96-1.07) for 1.5 times/wk (P-linear ¼.67, P-curvature ¼ .55, cer was 18% (95% CI: 4%-35%) for women who consumed a 1
P for difference ¼ .41). oz serving 1.5 times/wk. This positive association was
The full-model analyses in Table 2 were repeated after robust in that it was also observed in 3 exploratory sensitivity
adding BMI as a covariate due to its potential role as a analyses. Given that adiposity is an established risk factor for
mediator variable for the 2 cancers for which excess adiposity colorectal cancer,16 this result may be attributable to the
is an established risk factor—breast and colorectal cancer. A excess adiposity associated with frequent chocolate candy
similar exploratory analysis was performed for the combined consumption in WHI participants.30 Supporting this idea is
obesity-related cancers. All 9 of the nonreferent HRs showed the fact that WHI participants who were more frequent
a change in the second or third decimal place, which brought consumers of chocolate also consumed more dietary energy
them closer to the null value of 1.0. (See Table 3, available at and food of lower dietary quality (see Table 1).
www.jandonline.org.) Two previously published case-control studies of the as-
Time-dependent Cox regression was used in the full-model sociation between chocolate consumption among adults and
analyses in Table 2 as an exploratory analysis to assess the the risk of colorectal cancer were identified. The first study by
effect of updating the predictor at year 3, when the WHI FFQ McKelvey et al12 focused on American adults between the
was readministered. The results were very similar to those in ages of 30 and 89. There was no significant association be-
Tables 2. (See Table 4, available at www.jandonline.org.) tween chocolate candy intake and the prevalence of colo-
The full-model analyses in Table 2 were repeated after rectal adenomas in their second or third tertile of intake
adding participants in the 3 WHI CT intervention groups to when compared with their first tertile. This result conflicts
our analytic sample. The purpose was to explore the effects of with the finding here of a significant positive association in
including these participants in the survival analyses. The re- the fourth quartile among WHI women when compared with
sults were similar to those in Table 2, except that there were the first quartile. On the other hand, the second study, by
fewer significant HRs for the analyses for colorectal and lung Boutron-Ruault et al14 did find an elevated risk of colorectal
cancer. (See Table 5, available at www.jandonline.org.) cancer among women (and men) in their third quartile of
chocolate intake in French adults between the age of 30 and
79 years. This result is similar to the present finding, and
DISCUSSION French and American per-capita chocolate candy consump-
This prospective analysis of data from postmenopausal tion was similar in the 1990s31 when Boutron-Ruault and the
women in the WHI cohort yielded a weak positive association WHI assessed chocolate intake among their participants.

February 2021 Volume 121 Number 2 JOURNAL OF THE ACADEMY OF NUTRITION AND DIETETICS 323
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However, French and American chocolate candy in the 1990s CONCLUSIONS


may have contained different concentrations of ingredients The analysis of data from the prospective WHI cohort showed
that can affect the risk of colorectal cancer. Hence, it is no significant association between intake of chocolate candy
possible that the present significant finding is due to residual and the risk of invasive total or breast cancer. There was a
confounding. modest 18% higher risk of invasive colorectal cancer for
The weak inverse association between chocolate intake women who ate chocolate candy relatively frequently (1.5
and the risk of lung cancer at intake between monthly and times/wk). This result could be due to residual confounding.
<1.5 times/wk is not consonant with the results from Arts More rigorous controlled prospective trials are needed to test
et al,13 who used data from 738 men in the prospective the validity of these findings.
Zutphen Elderly Study. They found that an increase in
chocolate consumption equivalent to a 7.5 mg/d increase in References
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Pulido M, Castell M. Effect of Theobroma cacao flavonoids on
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results with those of Arts et al because Arts et al did not chocolate on plasma epicatechin levels, DNA resistance to oxidative
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the large sample size in the WHI enabled calculation of
4. Ellinger S, Stehle P. Impact of cocoa consumption on inflammation
relative risks in different quartiles and assessment of cur- processes—a critical review of randomized controlled trials. Nutri-
vature in the association. These differences may explain ents. 2016;8(6):321.
why the result in this study was significant and the result 5. Gu Y, Yu S, Lambert JD. Dietary cocoa ameliorates obesity-related
in the study by Arts et al was not. However, a literature inflammation in high fat-fed mice. Eur J Nutr. 2014;53(1):149-158.
search did not yield empirical evidence to cogently explain 6. Martín MA, Serrano AB, Ramos S, Pulido MI, Bravo L, Goya L. Cocoa
the ability of intake of 1 oz of chocolate candy <1.5 times/ flavonoids up-regulate antioxidant enzyme activity via the ERK1/2
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wk to reduce the risk of lung cancer. It seems likely, HepG2 cells. J Nutr Biochem. 2010;21(3):196-205.
therefore, that residual confounding accounts for the pre- 7. Rodriguez-Ramiro I, Ramos S, Lopez-Oliva E, et al. Cocoa-rich diet
sent significant outcome. prevents azoxymethane-induced colonic preneoplastic lesions in
This study has several strengths. The WHI data were rats by restraining oxidative stress and cell proliferation and
inducing apoptosis. Mol Nutr Food Res. 2011;55:1895-1899.
carefully collected, edited, and validated with the use of
8. Martin MA, Goya L, Ramos S. Potential for preventive effects of cocoa
current, empirically based techniques,17,32 and cancer end and cocoa polyphenols in cancer. Food Chem Toxicol. 2013;56:336-351.
points were rigorously adjudicated. Second, the data set is
9. Maskarinec G. Cancer protective properties of cocoa: a review of the
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11. Pannelli F, La Rosa F, Saltalamacchia G, Vitali R, Petrinelli AM,
significant findings were due to residual confounding. Long- Mastrandrea V. Tobacco smoking, coffee, cocoa and tea consumption
term randomized human trials are needed to more rigor- in relation to mortality from urinary bladder cancer in Italy. Eur J
ously account for confounding in the association between Epidemiol. 1989;5(3):392-397.
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partially hydrogenated oils. Epidemiology. 2000;11:469-473.
reported answer to a single FFQ question, and FFQ data18 are
13. Arts IC, Hollman PC, Bueno De Mesquita HB, Feskens EJ, Kromhout D.
subject to measurement error33 that can distort HR Dietary catechins and epithelial cancer incidence: The Zutphen
estimates.34 In this regard, the present sensitivity analysis elderly study. Int J Cancer. 2001;92(2):298-302.
with time-dependent Cox regression using an average of 2 14. Boutron-Ruault MC, Senesse P, Faivre J, Chatelain N, Belghiti C,
assessments of the exposure variable 3 years apart produced Méance S. Foods as risk factors for colorectal cancer: A case-control
study in Burgundy (France). Eur J Cancer Prev. 1999;8(3):229-235.
evidence suggesting that regression-dilution effects were
15. Giannandrea F. Correlation analysis of cocoa consumption data with
not large enough to invalidate the results of this study. worldwide incidence rates of testicular cancer and hypospadias. Int J
Third, the WHI FFQ did not request information on the type Environ Res Public Health. 200;96:568-578.
of chocolate consumed by WHI participants. The concen- 16. Lauby-Secretan B, Scoccianti C, Loomis D, et al. Body fatness and
tration of chocolate, cocoa, energy, added sugars, and fat cancer—viewpoint of the IARC Working Group. N Engl J Med.
was not assessed and is likely to be different in different 2016;375:794-798.
types and brands of chocolate and chocolate candy.35 Simi- 17. WHI Study Group. Design of the Women’s Health Initiative clinical
trial and observational study. The Women’s Health Initiative Study
larly, the concentration of cocoa and flavonoids varies Group. Control Clin Trials. 1998;19:61-109.
greatly in different types of chocolate.36 Hence, the present 18. Patterson RE, Kristal AR, Tinker LF, Carter RA, Bolton MP, Agurs-
analysis was unable to explore the potential effects of these Collins T. Measurement characteristics of the Women’s Health
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19. Curb JD, Mctiernan A, Heckbert SR, et al. Outcomes ascertainment
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20. Hu FB, Stampfer M, Rimm E, et al. Dietary fat and coronary heart 29. World Medical Association. World Medical Association Declara-
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strongly predict risk of chronic disease. J Nutr. 2012;142(6):1009-1018. ethical-principles-for-medical-research-involving-human-subjects/.

22. Gail M, Costantino J, Bryant J, et al. Weighing the risks and benefits of 30. Greenberg JA, Manson JE, Buijsse B, et al. Chocolate-candy
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23. Hsieh FY, Lavori PW. Sample-size calculations for the Cox propor-
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24. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow L. Applied survival analysis: Regression 32. Langer RD, White E, Lewis CE, Kotchen JM, Hendrix SL, Trevisan M.
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25. Allison P. Survival Analysis Using SAS: A practical guide. 2nd ed. Cary,
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February 2021 Volume 121 Number 2 JOURNAL OF THE ACADEMY OF NUTRITION AND DIETETICS 325
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AUTHOR INFORMATION
J. A. Greenberg is an emeritus professor, Department of Health and Nutrition Sciences, Brooklyn College of the City University of New York,
Brooklyn. M. L. Neuhouser is the program head and L. F. Tinker is a nutrition scientist, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer
Research Center, Seattle, WA. D. S. Lane is a distinguished service professor and vice chair, Department of Family, Population and Preventive
Medicine, School of Medicine, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY. E. D. Paskett is a Marion N. Rowley professor of cancer research,
Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, College of Medicine, Comprehensive Cancer Center, and S. Sealy-
Jefferson is an assistant professor, Division of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, both at Ohio State University, Columbus, OH. L. V. Van Horn
is the chief of nutrition, Department of Preventive Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL. S. Wassertheil-
Smoller is a distinguished university professor emerita, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine,
Bronx, NY. J. M. Shikany is an endowed professor of cardiovascular disease and associate director for research, Division of Preventive Medicine,
School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham. L. Qi is a professor, Department of Public Health Sciences, School of Medicine,
University of California Davis. J. E. Manson is a professor, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School,
Boston, MA.
Address correspondence to: James A. Greenberg, PhD, Department of Health & Nutrition Sciences, Brooklyn College of the City University of New
York, 2900 Bedford Ave, Brooklyn, NY 11201. E-mail: jamesg@brooklyn.cuny.edu
STATEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST
J. E. Manson and colleagues at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School are recipients of funding from Mars Symbioscience for an
investigator-initiated randomized trial of cocoa flavanols and chronic disease outcomes. No potential conflict of interest was reported by the
other authors.
FUNDING/SUPPORT
The Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) program is funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH)/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI),
US Department of Health and Human Services through contracts HHSN268201600018C, HHSN268201600001C, HHSN268201600002C,
HHSN268201600003C, and HHSN268201600004C. In addition, the following authors had funding related to this project: J. E. Manson had partial
support from HHSN268201100001C from NIH/NHLBI, the Women’s Health Initiative program. J. E. Manson and colleagues at Brigham and
Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School are recipients of funding from Mars Symbioscience for an investigator-initiated randomized trial of
cocoa flavanols and chronic disease outcomes. L. F. Tinker and M. L. Neuhouser received support from NIH/NHLBI, US Department of Health and
Human Services contract HHSN268201100046C. D. S. Lane received support from Stony Brook WHI Center grant, NHLBI contract no. NO1-WH-4-
2115.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Many thanks to the WHI Investigators (see the Appendix, available at www.jandonline.org) for their efforts in the collection of the WHI data.

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
J. A. Greenberg, J. E. Manson, and L. Qi designed the research. J. A. Greenberg analyzed the data. J. A. Greenberg, J. E. Manson, L. F. Tinker, J. M.
Shikany, and M. L. Neuhouser interpreted data. J. A. Greenberg wrote the paper and had primary responsibility for final content. J. A. Greenberg,
J. E. Manson, L. F. Tinker, M. L. Neuhouser, D. S. Lane, E. D. Paskett, L. V. Van Horn, S. Wassertheil-Smoller, S. Sealy-Jefferson, J. M. Shikany, and L. Qi
read, edited, and approved the final manuscript before submission.

326 JOURNAL OF THE ACADEMY OF NUTRITION AND DIETETICS February 2021 Volume 121 Number 2
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Table 3. Chocolate intake, HRsa, and 95% CIsb for incidence of invasive breast, colorectal and the other 11 obesity-related
cancers with body mass index as a covariate in the Women’s Health Initiativec

Frequencyd of Chocolate Candy Consumption (1 oz Servings)


Covariates in the model <1/moe 1/mo to <0.5/wk 0.5/wk to <1.5/wk ‡1.5/wk Total

First occurrence of an invasive


obesity-related cancer
Full modelf
HR (95% CI)g 1.00 0.99 (0.93-1.05) 1.03 (0.97-1.09) 1.01 (0.95-1.06)
No. of womenh 29,696 18,356 23,492 23,502 95,046
h
No. of events 2,814 1,804 2,459 2,429 9,506
First occurrence of invasive breast
cancer
Full model
HR (95% CI) 1.00 0.99 (0.93-1.05) 1.02 (0.95-1.09) 0.98 (0.91-1.05)
No. of women 29,559 18,504 23,606 23,673 95,342
No. of events 1,770 1,156 1,570 1,542 6,038
First occurrence of invasive
colorectal cancer
Full model
HR (95% CI) 1.00 1.07 (0.93-1.23) 1.06 (0.93-1.21) 1.17 (1.02-1.33)
No. of women 32,823 20,289 25,835 25,898 104,845
No. of events 501 337 432 493 1,763
a
HR ¼ hazard ratio.
b
CI ¼ confidence interval.
c
The analytic sample included observational study and clinical trial control participants with nonextreme self-reported dietary energy intake (600 and 5000 kcal/d), body mass index
(15 and 50 kg/m2) and height (122 cm or 4 ft).
d
Frequency of chocolate intake was assessed by means of a semiquantitative food frequency question.
e
Referent chocolate consumption category.
f
Full models were adjusted for the following covariates: age; body mass index; race or ethnic status (White, Black, Hispanic, other); Women’s Health Initiative study arm (observational study
and clinical trial control); smoking status (never, past, <15/d, 15/d); total recreational energy expended in metabolic equivalent of task hours per week (includes walking; mild, moderate,
and strenuous physical activity); Alternative Health Eating Index21; alcohol intake; education (<high school, some high school to <college, some college to <postgraduate study,
postgraduate study or degree). Full models were also adjusted for additional covariates for the following site-specific cancers: (1) total cancer—close relatives with a history of any type of
cancer (0 ¼ no, 1 ¼ 1 male or female relative, 2 ¼ both a male and female relative); (2) breast cancer—total months breastfed children (0-6), number of live births (0-7, 8þ), female
hormone usage (0 ¼ never,1 ¼ in the past, 2 ¼ current), previous mammograms (yes or no), close relatives with age <45 y and a history of breast cancer (0-5), age at menopause (20-60
y), and a Gail Model 2 variable,22 which replaced age and race or ethnicity; (3) colorectal cancer—number of close female or male relatives diagnosed with colorectal cancer before the age
of 45 y (0-5), prior colonoscopy or sigmoidoscopy (yes or no), preexisting diabetes (yes or no) or preexisting ulcerative colitis or Crohn’s disease (yes or no); and 4) lung cancer—preexisting
emphysema (yes or no).
g
HR (95% CI) determined by means of Cox regression.
h
No. of women at year 0 (baseline), the number of participants without preexisting cancer of the type in the outcome at year 0 who provided data on all variables at year 0. No. of events,
the number of new cases of the type of cancer in the outcome during the follow-up period for patients who were uncensored for the type of cancer in the outcome.

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Table 4. Chocolate intake, time-dependent covariate HRsa, and 95% CIsb for incidence of different types of invasive cancer in
the Women’s Health Initiativec

Frequencyd of Chocolate Candy Consumption (1 oz Servings)


Covariates in the model <1/moe 1/mo to <0.5/wk 0.5/wk to <1.5/wk ‡1.5/wk Total

First occurrence of invasive total cancer


Full modelf 1.00 1.01 (0.97-1.06) 1.02 (0.98-1.07) 1.02 (0.98-1.07)
g
HR (95% CI)
No. of womenh 29,696 18,356 23,492 23,502 95,046
h
No. of events 4,814 3,053 4,136 4,161 16,164
First occurrence of invasive breast cancer
Full model
HR (95% CI) 1.00 1.06 (0.99-1.14) 1.01 (0.94-1.08) 1.01 (0.94-1.09)
No. of women 29,559 18,504 23,606 23,673 95,342
No. of events 1,770 1,156 1,570 1,542 6,038
First occurrence of invasive colorectal cancer
Full model
HR (95% CI) 1.00 1.00 (0.87-1.16) 1.07 (0.94-1.22) 1.14 (1.00-1.30)
No. of women 32,823 20,289 25,835 25,898 104,845
No. of events 501 337 432 493 1,763
First occurrence of invasive lung cancer
Full model
HR (95% CI) 1.00 0.83 (0.73-0.95) 0.89 (0.78-1.00) 0.91 (0.80-1.02)
No. of women 32,958 20,375 26,000 26,041 105,374
No. of events 642 330 479 514 1,965
a
HR ¼ hazard ratio.
b
CI ¼ confidence interval.
c
The analytic sample included observational study and clinical trial control participants with nonextreme self-reported dietary energy intake (600 and 5000 kcal/d), body mass index
(>15 and <50 kg/m2), and height (>122 cm or >4 ft).
d
Frequency of chocolate intake was assessed by means of a semiquantitative food frequency question.
e
Referent chocolate consumption category.
f
Full models were adjusted for the following covariates: age; race or ethnic status (White, Black, Hispanic, other); Women’s Health Initiative study arm (observational study and clinical trial
control); smoking status (never, past, <15/d, 15/d); total recreational energy expended in metabolic equivalent of task hours per week (includes walking; mild, moderate, and strenuous
physical activity); Alternative Health Eating Index21; alcohol intake; education (<high school, some high school to <college, some college to <postgraduate study, postgraduate study or
degree). Full models were also adjusted for additional covariates for the following site-specific cancers: (1) total cancer—close relatives with a history of any type of cancer (0 ¼ no, 1 ¼ 1
male or female relative, 2 ¼ both a male and female relative); (2) breast cancer—total months breastfed children (0-6), number of live births (0-7, 8þ), female hormone usage (0 ¼
never,1 ¼ in the past, 2 ¼ current), previous mammograms (yes or no), close relatives with age <45 y and a history of breast cancer (0-5), age at menopause (20-60 y), and a Gail Model 2
variable,22 which replaced age and race or ethnicity; (3) colorectal cancer—number of close female or male relatives diagnosed with colorectal cancer before the age of 45 y (0-5), prior
colonoscopy or sigmoidoscopy (yes or no), preexisting diabetes (yes or no) or preexisting ulcerative colitis or Crohn’s disease (yes or no); and (4) lung cancer—preexisting emphysema (yes
or no).
g
HR (95% CI) determined by means of Cox regression.
h
No. of women at year 0 (baseline), the number of participants without preexisting cancer of the type in the outcome at year 0 who provided data on all variables at year 0. No. of events,
the number of new cases of the type of cancer in the outcome during the follow-up period for patients who were uncensored for the type of cancer in the outcome.

326.e2 JOURNAL OF THE ACADEMY OF NUTRITION AND DIETETICS February 2021 Volume 121 Number 2
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Table 5. Chocolate intake, covariate HRsa, and 95% CIsb for incidence of different types of invasive cancer, with all clinical trial
participants in the Women’s Health Initiativec

Frequencyd of Chocolate Candy Consumption (1 oz Servings)


Covariates in the model <1/moe 1/mo to <0.5/wk 0.5/wk to <1.5/wk ‡1.5/wk Total

First occurrence of invasive total cancer


Full modelf 1.00 0.99 (0.95-1.03) 1.03 (0.99-1.06) 1.01 (0.98-1.05)
g
HR (95% CI)
No. of womenh 38,173 24,415 32,716 33,743 129,047
h
No. of events 6,211 4,119 5,830 6,032 22,192
First occurrence of invasive breast cancer
Full model
HR (95% CI) 1.00 1.01 (0.94-1.07) 1.05 (0.99-1.12) 1.00 (0.94-1.07)
No. of women 37,691 24,378 32,593 33,770 128,432
No. of events 2,219 1,534 2,191 2,206 8,150
First occurrence of invasive colorectal cancer
Full model
HR (95% CI) 1.00 1.06 (0.94-1.19) 1.03 (0.92-1.15) 1.11 (1.00-1.25)
No. of women 41,520 26,519 35,294 36,472 139,805
No. of events 676 462 606 692 2,436
First occurrence of invasive lung cancer
Full model
HR (95% CI) 1.00 0.82 (0.73-0.92) 0.94 (0.84-1.04) 0.93 (0.84-1.03)
No. of women 41,634 26,584 35,438 36,596 140,252
No. of events 809 439 683 720 2,651
a
HR ¼ hazard ratio.
b
CI ¼ confidence interval.
c
The analytic sample included observational study and all clinical trial participants with nonextreme self-reported dietary energy intake (600 and 5000 kcal/d), body mass index (>15
and <50 kg/m2), and height (>122 cm or >4 ft).
d
Frequency of chocolate intake was assessed by means of a semiquantitative food frequency question.
e
Referent chocolate consumption category.
f
Full models were adjusted for the following covariates: age; race or ethnic status (White, Black, Hispanic, other); Women’s Health Initiative study arm (observational study, clinical trial control
and the 10 different combinations of clinical trials in which the women participated); smoking status (never, past, <15/d, 15/d); total recreational energy expended in metabolic
equivalent of task hours per week (includes walking; mild, moderate, and strenuous physical activity); Alternative Health Eating Index21; alcohol intake; education (<high school, some high
school to <college, some college to <postgraduate study, postgraduate study or degree). Full models were also adjusted for additional covariates for the following site-specific cancers:
(1) total cancer—close relatives with a history of any type of cancer (0 ¼ no, 1 ¼ 1 male or female relative, 2 ¼ both a male and female relative); (2) breast cancer—total months breastfed
children (0-6), number of live births (0-7, 8þ), female hormone usage (0 ¼ never, 1 ¼ in the past, 2 ¼ current), previous mammograms (yes or no), close relatives with age <45 y and a
history of breast cancer (0-5), age at menopause (20-60 y), and a Gail Model 2 variable,22 which replaced age and race or ethnicity; (3) colorectal cancer—number of close female or male
relatives diagnosed with colorectal cancer before the age of 45 y (0-5), prior colonoscopy or sigmoidoscopy (yes or no), preexisting diabetes (yes or no), or preexisting ulcerative colitis or
Crohn’s disease (yes or no); and (4) lung cancer—preexisting emphysema (yes or no).
g
HR (95% CI) determined by means of Cox regression.
h
No. of women at year 0 (baseline), the number of participants without preexisting cancer of the type in the outcome at year 0 who provided data on all variables at year 0. No. of events,
the number of new cases of the type of cancer in the outcome during the follow up period for patients who were uncensored for the type of cancer in the outcome.

February 2021 Volume 121 Number 2 JOURNAL OF THE ACADEMY OF NUTRITION AND DIETETICS 326.e3
RESEARCH

APPENDIX. WOMEN’S HEALTH INITIATIVE INVESTIGATORS


Title of Publication: Chocolate Candy and Incident Invasive Cancer Risk in the Women’s Health Initiative: An Observational
Prospective Analysis
Authors: James A. Greenberg1, Marian L. Neuhouser2, Lesley F. Tinker3, Dorothy S. Lane4, Electra D. Paskett5, Linda V. Van
Horn6, Sylvia Wassertheil-Smoller7, James M. Shikany8, Lihong Qi9, Shawnita Sealy-Jefferson10, JoAnn E. Manson11
Affiliations: (1) Department of Health and Nutrition Sciences, Brooklyn College of the City University of New York, Brooklyn,
NY; (2) Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA; (3) Division of Public Health
Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA; (4) Department of Family, Population and Preventive Medicine,
School of Medicine, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; (5) Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, Department of
Internal Medicine, College of Medicine; Comprehensive Cancer Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; (6) Depart-
ment of Preventive Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL; (7) Department of Epidemi-
ology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY; (8) Division of Preventive Medicine, School of
Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, AL; (9) Department of Public Health Sciences, School of Medicine, University of
California Davis, Davis, CA; (10) Division of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; (11)
Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA.

Short List of Women’s Health Initiative Investigators


Program Office: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, Maryland: Jacques Rossouw, Shari Ludlam, Dale Burwen,
Joan McGowan, Leslie Ford, and Nancy Geller
Clinical Coordinating Center: (Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA) Garnet Anderson, Ross Prentice, Andrea
LaCroix, and Charles Kooperberg
Investigators and Academic Centers: (Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA) JoAnn E. Manson;
(MedStar Health Research Institute/Howard University, Washington, DC) Barbara V. Howard; (Stanford Prevention Research
Center, Stanford, CA) Marcia L. Stefanick; (The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH) Rebecca Jackson; (University of Arizona,
Tucson/Phoenix, AZ) Cynthia A. Thomson; (University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY) Jean Wactawski-Wende; (University of Florida,
Gainesville/Jacksonville, FL) Marian Limacher; (University of Iowa, Iowa City/Davenport, IA) Robert Wallace; (University of
Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA) Lewis Kuller; (Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC) Sally Shumaker
Women’s Health Initiative Memory Study: (Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC) Sally Shumaker
For a list of all the investigators who have contributed to Women’s Health Initiative science, please visit: https://www.whi.
org/researchers/Documents%20%20Write%20a%20Paper/WHI%20Investigator%20Long%20List.pdf.

326.e4 JOURNAL OF THE ACADEMY OF NUTRITION AND DIETETICS February 2021 Volume 121 Number 2

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