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-The Coronavirus and Global Economy-
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,. US-Taliban Peace Deal

, Organized Violence in Delhi
c•r•na
virus
, Trump's Deal of the Century
•
, Emerging Great Power Competition

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,. Water Disputes with India and Afghanistan Pandemic vs the Wortd

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Coronavirus Hits Pakistan Hard

he pandemic of Coronavirus has brooghl the world to a standstill. Countries across the globe have closed their borders
so as to avoid the spread of the kfller virus lhal has already taken thousands of fives and leaving hundreds of thousands
of people affected. Pakistan, too. has been badly affected, fol1\lnately not on lhe magnitude most other coontnes have
been, though. But, for a developing counlly like ours. implicalions will be grave. Since most cibes have been under a
patbal lockdown as schools. educational institutions. shopping malls and other ustJallycrowded public places have been
shut across the coont,y. the country's economy, which was scraping through the crisis, wiN be tile main victim. Almost all
economic activities have come to a halt and people, whO were already reeling under grinding poverty. will once again face tesbng
times. In the wake of the Cvid-19oulbreak, Pakistan's inrtial economic losses in different seclOfS of the country's economy have been
esbmated at Rs1 .3 trillion. These losses are going lo be incurred on account of drop In the GDP growth because of reductJon in
servees sector, mcludmg airline business and others, FBR's revenue loss, massive decline in imports. exports, reduction in
remittances. disruption in food supplies and other fronts. Moreover, it is becoming increasingly clear that the pandemic will lake a

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heavy loll oo employment and poverty trends.
Ills no surprise tllallhe ones lo suffer first, and the most, are the loweslincome groups. Still, the first quantifiable estimates that are
oow coming out make for some gnm reading and should give policymakers much to think about According lo a repot. not ooly can

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the ongoing slowdown almost double the country's poverty rate, from 23.4 percent to44 .2 percent, it can also put more than 12 million
people out of work, which is approximately 20 percent of the total employed populabon. Even more impoltanUy, ii will most likely add
46.3 percent of the country's vulnerableworkforce - defined as self-employed workers and contributing family workers, whO are not
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very hke!y to have fonnal work - to the ranks of the unemployed as well. Since Paklslan has a very high percentage of vulnerable
employmen� 41.6 percent accordlng to Pakislan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) figures of 2018, the expected poverty oolge becomes
that much easier lo understand. Going by the report, the biggest vulnerable employment layoffs wm come in the transport and
communication (90.26 percent) and hotels and restaurants (90.00 percent) sectors. Similarly, wholesale and retail trade should
S.

expect 70.11 percent and manufacturing sector 69.91 percent of Its vulnerable workers lo face the axe sooner rather than later. And
so the list goes on.
Given that businesses and government alike didn't fully understand the kind of economic compromises that the lockdown wouid
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demand, and !here's still no way of knowing just how long proper economic activity cannot resume, these figures can be taken as
careful estimates at best But they do give a pretty clear idea of the magnitude of the problem.
In this Orne of crisis, the government came up with a 1.13 trillion rupee package. The package focusing on the g-ral public includes
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200 billion rupees for labour with negotiations ongoing with the provinces to provide additional suppon. This can be rully e<idorsed as
the large number of unskilled daHy wage earners would be the hardest hit 1r the lockdown prolongs. So, the government must
immediately work on an action plan to help the sectors that are most at risk; so tlle1r vulnerable workforce can be protected before tt
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finds itsett oo tile streets with no income. !tis unlikely, given the size of the economy, that the government can make direct transfers of
the huge sems or money that buslnesses need lo avoid a llquidlty crunch in the Immediate term. So It wlll have to adopt a calculated
and phased approach.
Whenever it is feasible to relax the Jookdown, It will be important lo stagger it in stages. Righl now, only Industry related lo essenbal
servees is allowed to funcbOn. Next, export industry should also be allowed to resume operations along with allied industry that feeds
the export sector. But it shoold be done in a staggered manner. Suddenly giving the green Eght after a cabinet meeting one fine day
wilt not do lhe job. The government will have to make a prlo<ily llst, ror which It wm have to hold discussions wftll all stakeholders and
gather input from experts. II will also have to make sure that the more important industries, rood and pharmace1Jl1Cals, for example,
are given a higher position on the list than olhetS. And itmust do all ii can to time the relaxation as perfe<:lly as possible.
So, the government must formulate an all-Inclusive pohcy to cope with the aftermath of the lockdown. Business as usual will not wO<lt
anddealingw1th this pandemlcwm require 'every ounce of creative energy and close ooordlnation. fo, Pakistan, this means lhat both
domestic and external Institutions must extract every ounce of boldness and creativity to rescue and re-stabilize the country's �
economy. Needless to say, of course. that if the sp<ead is nol controlled the economy will almost certainty collapse, and no maooer
stimulus or intervention will getit back on Its feet.

Adeel Nia
adeelniai78@gmail

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