Modeling Coral Reef Susceptibility Using GIS
Multi-Criteria Analysis
Khusharah Aslam
Dept of RS & GISc
Institute of Space Technology Institute of Space Technology
Karachi, Pakistan
khusharah26@gmail.com zahidkhalil.rao@gmail.com
Saad Malik
Dept of RS & GISc
Institute of Space Technology Institute of Space Technology
Karachi, Pakistan
mr.saad@gmail.com
Abstract— In this study a multi-criteria analysis model of
GIS has been developed to map the susceptibility of coral reef
based on various environmental indicators. For this there is a
need to understand the pattern of coral susceptibility to
environmental indicators including sea surface temperature
(SST) which is continuously changing due to the global climate.
The Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) has been selected as the
study area which includes waters of Arabian Sea and Bay of
Bengal. The purpose of this study is to highlight most
vulnerable areas of coral bleaching in the NIO by using multi-
criteria analysis (MCA). Remotely sensed environmental
indicators including SST, aragonite saturation state,
bathymetry, photosynthetic active radiation (PAR), wind
velocity, and reef slope were used to observe the susceptibility
of coral reefs in NIO. Existing bleaching sites of corals were
overlaid with susceptibility map obtained by MCA. The coast
of Sri Lanka, South India, Maldives, Oman and British Indian
ocean territory were found to be in the highly susceptible zone
of coral bleaching. GIS-based MCA proved to be an efficient
technique to analyze the suitable or unsuitable conditions for
coral reef susceptibility.
Keywords— SST, coral reefs, multi-criteria analysis, Indian
Ocean
I. INTRODUCTION
The coral reefs serve as the home to many marine
organisms and play a vital role in coastal protection, tourism,
and
fishing, therefore supporting coastal communities. Coral reef
is an ecosystem with multiple ecological, environmental and
socio-economic functions. This unique ecosystem is
continually at risk due to frequent, diverse and the increased
extent of anthropogenic activities globally [1] & [2].
However, there is a serious reef decline and about 30% of the
total reef area is already severely damaged. By 2030 nearly
60% of reefs may be lost [3]. Due to higher sea surface
temperatures particularly during annually occurring ENSO
(El Ninˇo– Southern Oscillation) corals are losing most of
their pigmented micro-algal endosymbionts, called
zooxanthellae. Zooxanthellae give corals their particular
color, and under stress those cells are expelled, leading to a
lighter or completely white appearance in corals. If the
thermal conditions are severe and extended over a longer
period, they may cause bleaching and most of the corals may
die. Rising sea temperature brings ejection of algae from the
coral
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Rao Zahid Khalil Sumaira Zafar
Dept of RS & GISc Asian Institute of Technology
Thailand
Karachi, Pakistan sgeographer@gmail.com
Abdul Basit
Dept of RS & GISc
Karachi, Pakistan
ab.basit93@gmail.com
polyps and ultimately lose their source of food, color and
energy.
Till date several studies had been done for modelling the
process of coral bleaching. Correlation between satellites
derived SST variables and observed coral bleaching patterns
have been examined[4]. Studies of before and during coral
bleaching events by using IKONOS satellite imagery,
recognized that by increasing brightness in band 1 (blue) and
band 2 (green) of IKONOS spectral bands, severe reef
bleaching areas can be identified[5]. A study was conducted
for modeling susceptibility of coral reefs over environmental
stress in which they combined UV radiation, sea surface
temperature (SST), surface currents, photosynthetically
active radiation (PAR), wind velocity, and chlorophyll-a
concentration with coral bleaching and mortality database to
predict correlation between environmental variables and
thermal stress. Results showed that wind velocity, UV, SST
and maximum temperature had greater influence on
bleaching susceptibility estimates[6]. NOAA Coral Reef
Watch bleaching prediction method and low- and high
climate sensitivity general circulation model (GCM) were
used for the assessment of coral bleaching
under climate change[7].
II. THREATS TO CORAL REEF
Most of the tropical reefs are currently exposed to
various natural and anthropogenic threats and degrading at
an alarming rate.
A. Natural Threats
A various environmental parameter such as changes in
water temperature, aragonite saturation state,
photosynthetically active radiation plays a significant role in
shaping the response of corals to thermal stress. Sea surface
temperature is recognized to be the major source of coral
bleaching events in Northern Indian ocean. Corals are
reduced to 50-60% in the Indian ocean due to El Niño
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [8].
B. Anthropogenic Threats
About 58– 70% of coral reefs of the world are directly
threatened by anthropogenic activities [9]. Carbon emissions
from industry and daily routine are dissolving into the sea.
Cruise ships discharge their waste and pollute the
environment, the emitted carbon dioxide that interacts with
ocean forms carbonic acid and causes acidification which a) Identifying Parameters: The procedure used in this
halts the coral growth [10]. model development started with the selection of parameters
Based on the literature review this study used remotely based on prior knowledge that are recognized to influence
sensed oceanographic data of six environmental variables to coral reefs. Six parameters were chosen for Analytic
observe the distributions of potential bleaching and Hierarchy Process (Table 1).
mortality of coral reefs of Northern Indian Ocean.
The aim of this research is to determine the sites that are b) Data acquisition: All layers were reprojected in
more susceptible to coral bleaching in Northern Indian WGS 1984, extracted with the extent of the study area and
Ocean. resampled to a cell size of 0.0833 degrees (927.29 meters)
“Fig. 3”.
III. MATERIALS AND METHODS
Table 1: Data Sources and their units
A. Study Area
The Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) touches South Asia to Parameters Data source Data units
north and island states (Maldives, Seychelles, Mauritius) of
Indian Ocean “Fig.1”. NIO contain fringing reefs, reef atolls Sea surface MODIS °C (Degree Celsius)
and small barrier reefs. Mostly coral reefs are the tropical temperature
shallow water ecosystem and about 60% of the coral reefs Photosynthetic MODIS Einstein/m2/day
are in the Indian Ocean region [11] Active Radiation

Aragonite NOAA ([Ca2+] × [CO32-]) /

saturation state [CaCO3] = Ωarag

Wind speed Da Silva et al. m/s (meters per

second)

Bathymetry GEBCO 08 m (Meters)

Slope GEBCO 08 Degrees

c) Analytic Hierarchy Process: Analytic Hierarchy

Process (AHP), component of MCDA is a technique that is
considered to identify the importance of parameters which
were further utilized as an input for overlay analysis. It
evaluates the performance of parameters based on
comparison within a set of reciprocal matrices of
Fig.1 Study Area parameters. The AHP scale used for the comparison of
parameters is 1 to 5 (Table 2).
B. Data and Processing Method
A Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was applied Table 2. AHP scale for pair wise comparison
to analyze the coral bleaching in North Indian Ocean. The
MCDA comprises the following steps: identifying Intensity of
Definition Description
parameters, assigning decision rules for coral bleaching, importance
Analytic Hierarchy Process and conducting
the weighted overlay. 1
Equal Two parameter contributes equal to
Importance the aim.

Equal to When compromise value between 1

2
Moderate and 3 is required.

Moderate It slightly tends to one parameter

3
Importance over another

Moderate When compromise value between 3

4
to Strong and 5 is required.

Strongly tends one parameter over

5 Strong
another

Fig. 2 Methodological framework of this study

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After the formation of pair-wise comparison matrix, the
Normalized Eigen vector was computed. The comparison
matrix was normalized by dividing the sum of each column
by each element in the matrix. Normalized Eigen vector was
attained by computing the mean of elements in each row of
the matrix.
The reasonable level of consistency of parameters were
acceptable when the consistency ratio (CR) is less than 0.10.
If it exceeds than 0.10, the ratio indicates an unreliable
judgment and pair-wise comparison matrix required to be
reconsider. Consistency Ratio was computed as:
Where,
CR = Consistency Ratio
CI = Consistency index
RI = Randomness Index
n = Number of parameters
𝜆𝑚𝑎𝑥 = Principal Eigen value
(The sum of products between each element of
Eigen vector and sum of columns of reciprocal
matrix) [8].
Table 3: RANDOMNESS INDEX (RI) [9]
n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
RI 0.0 0.0 0.58 0.90 1.12 1.24 1.32 1.41
IV. RESULTS & DISCUSSIONS
Sea surface temperature, aragonite saturation state,
photosynthetic active radiation, wind speed, bathymetry and
slope play a critical role in determining the bleaching
vulnerability of coral. Information on the selection of
these parameters is given below.
A. Sea Surface Temperature
Extreme climatic variability such as global warming,
heat waves, downwelling currents and El Nino events are
the major drivers of increase in sea surface temperature.
[12]. Symbiotically coral reefs live with unicellular micro
algae called zooxanthellae. Zooxanthellae are highly
sensitive to higher sea surface temperatures. Sea surface
temperature above 27ºC affects the photosynthesis process
of zooxanthellae which brings the death of uni-cellular
organism(zooxanthellae), which results in bleaching of
corals.
B. Aragonite Saturation State (Ωarag)
Surface waters are supersaturated with respect to
aragonite (CaCO3) and other carbonate minerals from
which coral reefs and other marine organism construct their
shells. Aragonite saturation state can be defined as the
product of concentrations of dissolved calcium and
carbonate ions divided
by their product at equilibrium:
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([Ca2+] × [CO32-]) / [CaCO3] = Ω
Corals and other are more likely to survive when
saturation state is greater than 3Ω (omega) and when it is
less than 3Ω coral becomes stressed and die when it reaches
to 1Ω [13].
C. Photosynthetic Active Radiation (PAR)
PAR indicates the spectral range of 400-700nm from the
sun that reaches the ocean surface [14], which is required by
zooxanthellae algae of corals for their photosynthesis
process. Corals condition would be critical where PAR is
greater than 47 Einstein/m2/day. [15].
D. Wind Speed
Wind speed was selected as a parameter for bleaching
site identification because wind exerts a common influence
on coral bleaching. Maximum wind speed less than 28 meter
per second exerts minor damage to coral reefs but wind
speed more than 30 meter per second caused catastrophic
damage to inshore and greater than 40 meter per second can
damage offshore [16]–[18].
E. Bathymetry
Bathymetry was selected as another parameter because it
defines the depth of coral existence. As corals exist at a
certain depth of ocean. Shallow water coral resides at depth
of 50 meters and deep-water corals resides at depth of 150
10 meters [19][20].
1.45 1.49 F. Slope
Slope is derived from the bathymetry data and it is
selected as parameter because slope defines gradient of
ocean bed. Coral reefs survive where slope is less than 4
degrees.
G. AHP Application
AHP was applied by using six parameters to determine
the priority of each parameter over one another (Table 4). A
common scale (0 – 1) was obtained from AHP. Sea surface
temperature emerges the most imperative parameter.
Relative criterion weights (0.436) than PAR (0.159), wind
(0.082), bathymetry (0.082), aragonite saturation state
(0.159) and slope (0.082). Consistency was examined for
this judgment.
Principal Eigen vector = 6.005
Consistency Index (CI) = 0.001
For n = 6, RI =1.24
Consistency Ratio (CR)=> 0.0008
(which is less than 0.1, this shows consistency was
feasible and the comparison was made in first step
(Table 4) judged for each parameter was suitable to
overlay).
H. Weighted Overlay Analysis
The information layers were prepared according to prior
knowledge and prior studies. These layers were overlaid
with their relative criterion weight to identify the coral
bleaching susceptible sites. The data were in raster format
which was then reclassified and provided scale value for
each component. Scale value ranging from 1 to 5 was used
 Table 4: Weights of selected criterion parameters

SST PAR Slope Aragonite Wind Bathymetry Weight

SST 1 3 5 3 5 5 0.436

PAR 0.333 1 2 1 2 2 0.159

Slope 0.2 0.5 1 0.5 1 1 0.082

Aragonite 0.333 1 2 1 2 2 0.159

Wind 0.2 0.5 1 0.5 1 1 0.082

Bathymetry 0.2 0.5 1 0.5 1 1 0.082

(a) Sea surface temperature (b) Aragonite saturation state (c) Photosynthetic active Radiation

(d) Wind Speed (e) Bathymetry (f) Slope

Fig. 3 Maps of parameter used in this study

in which 1 is for least susceptible, 3 is for moderate and 5 is
for highly susceptible. After weighted overlay analysis a
susceptibility map was derived “Figure 4”.
It was found that in the study area, the coast of Sri Lanka,
South India, Maldives, Oman and British Indian ocean
territory are in the highly susceptible zone of coral
bleaching. The results were then validated from Reef Base
data (a Global Information System for Coral Reefs) in
which the majority of bleaching sites are within the high and
moderate zones of bleaching sites.

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[9]
Fig. 4: Coral bleaching susceptibility zones.
V. CONCLUSION
This study combines information derived from satellite
data, relational database system and relation between
corals and environmental indicators to develop a model for
the prediction of coral bleaching using GIS-MCA. Coral
reefs system in the Northern Indian Ocean has been
recognized to be highly susceptible in the central and
northern sites.
Remotely sensed data with higher or moderate resolutions
has enabled the application of ecosystem approach for
assessment of vulnerability of any particular phenomenon
at the regional scale. The evaluation of this model will
become more useful by incorporating coral mortality data
and in-situ observations.
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