DMA

Month Demand (in Units) MA (4) St' MA (4x4) St" at bt Forecast Demand
Jul-18 686
Aug-18 789
Sep-18 881
Oct-18 976 833
Nov-18 982 907
Dec-18 712 887.8
Jan-19 878 887.0 878.7 895.3 5.5 0
Feb-19 987 889.8 892.9 886.6 -2.1 901
Mar-19 1378 988.8 913.3 1064.2 50.3 885
Apr-19 1262 1126.3 972.9 1279.6 102.2 1114
May-19 1100 1181.8 1046.6 1316.9 90.1 1382
Jun-19 745 1121.3 1104.5 1138.0 11.2 1407
Jul-19 867 993.5 1105.7 881.3 -74.8 1149
Aug-19 668 845.0 1035.4 654.6 -126.9 807
Sep-19 848 782.0 935.4 628.6 -102.3 528
Oct-19 1023 851.5 868.0 835.0 -11.0 526
Nov-19 980 879.8 839.6 919.9 26.8 824
Dec-19 883 933.5 861.7 1005.3 47.9 947
Jan-20 920 951.5 904.1 998.9 31.6 1053
Feb-20 998 945.3 927.5 963.0 11.8 1031
Mar-20 1460 1065.3 973.9 1156.6 60.9 975
Apr-20 1212 1147.5 1027.4 1267.6 80.1 1218
May-20 1106 1194.0 1088.0 1300.0 70.7 1348
Jun-20 907 1171.3 1144.5 1198.0 17.8 1371
Jul-20 1216
Aug-20 1234
Sep-20 1252
Oct-20 1269
Nov-20 1287
Dec-20 1305
 DMA
MonthDemand (in Units)
MA (4) St'MA (4x4) St" at bt Forecast Demand
(dt-dt')^2 |dt-dt'| PEt
Jul-18 686
Aug-18 789
Sep-18 881
Oct-18 976 833
Nov-18 982 907
Dec-18 712 887.8
Jan-19 878 887.0 878.7 895.3 5.5 0 770884 878 1
Feb-19 987 889.8 892.9 886.6 -2.1 901 7421.105 86 0.08728
Mar-19 1378 988.8 913.3 1064.2 50.3 885 243501.1 493 0.358097
Apr-19 1262 1126.3 972.9 1279.6 102.2 1114 21762.4 148 0.116894
May-19 1100 1181.8 1046.6 1316.9 90.1 1382 79394.8 282 -0.256155
Jun-19 745 1121.3 1104.5 1138.0 11.2 1407 438188.8 662 -0.888535
Jul-19 867 993.5 1105.7 881.3 -74.8 1149 79618.03 282 -0.325452
Aug-19 668 845.0 1035.4 654.6 -126.9 807 19188.02 139 -0.207367
Sep-19 848 782.0 935.4 628.6 -102.3 528 102586.8 320 0.377702
Oct-19 1023 851.5 868.0 835.0 -11.0 526 246739.9 497 0.485561
Nov-19 980 879.8 839.6 919.9 26.8 824 24336 156 0.159184
Dec-19 883 933.5 861.7 1005.3 47.9 947 4061.407 64 -0.072173
Jan-20 920 951.5 904.1 998.9 31.6 1053 17738.91 133 -0.144769
Feb-20 998 945.3 927.5 963.0 11.8 1031 1060.316 33 -0.032628
Mar-20 1460 1065.3 973.9 1156.6 60.9 975 235386.7 485 0.332306
Apr-20 1212 1147.5 1027.4 1267.6 80.1 1218 30.71007 6 -0.004572
May-20 1106 1194.0 1088.0 1300.0 70.7 1348 58422.92 242 -0.218543
Jun-20 907 1171.3 1144.5 1198.0 17.8 1371 214986.8 464 -0.511209
Jul-20 1216
Aug-20 1234
Sep-20 1252
Oct-20 1269
Nov-20 1287
Dec-20 1305
142517.1 298.3507

MAD 298.3507
MSE 142517.1
MAPE 0.309913
 |PEt|

1
0.08728
0.358097
0.116894
0.256155
0.888535
0.325452
0.207367
0.377702
0.485561
0.159184
0.072173
0.144769
0.032628
0.332306
0.004572
0.218543
0.511209

0.309913
 DMA
Month Demand (in Units) MA (4) St' MA (4x4) St" at bt Forecast Demand (dt-dt')^2
Jul-18 686
Aug-18 789
Sep-18 881
Oct-18 976 833
Nov-18 982 907
Dec-18 712 887.8
Jan-19 878 887.0 878.7 895.3 5.5 0 770884
Feb-19 987 889.8 892.9 886.6 -2.1 901 7421.1046007
Mar-19 1378 988.8 913.3 1064.2 50.3 885 243501.12674
Apr-19 1262 1126.3 972.9 1279.6 102.2 1114 21762.396267
May-19 1100 1181.8 1046.6 1316.9 90.1 1382 79394.802517
Jun-19 745 1121.3 1104.5 1138.0 11.2 1407 438188.83507
Jul-19 867 993.5 1105.7 881.3 -74.8 1149 79618.027778
Aug-19 668 845.0 1035.4 654.6 -126.9 807 19188.021267
Sep-19 848 782.0 935.4 628.6 -102.3 528 102586.75174
Oct-19 1023 851.5 868.0 835.0 -11.0 526 246739.86502
Nov-19 980 879.8 839.6 919.9 26.8 824 24336
Dec-19 883 933.5 861.7 1005.3 47.9 947 4061.406684
Jan-20 920 951.5 904.1 998.9 31.6 1053 17738.910156
Feb-20 998 945.3 927.5 963.0 11.8 1031 1060.3164063
Mar-20 1460 1065.3 973.9 1156.6 60.9 975 235386.69444
Apr-20 1212 1147.5 1027.4 1267.6 80.1 1218 30.710069444
May-20 1106 1194.0 1088.0 1300.0 70.7 1348 58422.918403
Jun-20 907 1171.3 1144.5 1198.0 17.8 1371 214986.77778

5
4
3
2
1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5

t
 DMA
|dt-dt'| PEt |PEt| rsfe cumulative cum |dt-dt'| MAD tracking signal UCL

878 1 1 878 878 878 1 4

86 0.0872804796 0.0872804796 964 1842 921.07291667 1.04676385103 4
493 0.3580974843 0.3580974843 1458 3300 1099.9166667 1.32519509054 4
148 0.1168944797 0.1168944797 1605 4905 1226.21875 1.30900379724 4
282 -0.256155303 0.256155303 1323 6228 1245.6458333 1.06238397083 4
662 -0.8885346756 0.8885346756 661 6890 1148.2708333 0.57599288786 4
282 -0.3254517493 0.3254517493 379 7269 1038.4077381 0.3652025623 4
139 -0.207366517 0.207366517 241 7510 938.6953125 0.25642860908 4
320 0.3777024371 0.3777024371 561 8071 896.72916667 0.62560695119 4
497 0.4855612577 0.4855612577 1058 9128 912.82916667 1.15873725916 4
156 0.1591836735 0.1591836735 1214 10342 940.18371212 1.2909489401 4
64 -0.0721734617 0.0721734617 1150 11492 957.66840278 1.20083318679 4
133 -0.1447690217 0.1447690217 1017 12509 962.21794872 1.05673823831 4
33 -0.0326277555 0.0326277555 984 13493 963.79166667 1.02122692491 4
485 0.3323059361 0.3323059361 1469 14963 997.5 1.4730994152 4
6 -0.0045723322 0.0045723322 1464 16426 1026.6484375 1.42587759016 4
242 -0.2185427969 0.2185427969 1222 17649 1038.1495098 1.17725496677 4
464 -0.5112091143 0.5112091143 759 18407 1022.6134259 0.74172701118 4

TS-DMA
5
4
3
2
1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5

tracking signal UCL CL LCL

CL LCL

0 -4
0 -4
0 -4
0 -4
0 -4
0 -4
0 -4
0 -4
0 -4
0 -4
0 -4
0 -4
0 -4
0 -4
0 -4
0 -4
0 -4
0 -4
 DMA
Month Demand (in Units) MA (4) St' MA (4x4) St" at bt Forecast Demand (dt-dt')^2
Jul-18 686
Aug-18 789
Sep-18 881
Oct-18 976 833
Nov-18 982 907
Dec-18 712 887.8
Jan-19 878 887.0 878.7 895.3 5.5 0 770884
Feb-19 987 889.8 892.9 886.6 -2.1 901 7421.105
Mar-19 1378 988.8 913.3 1064.2 50.3 885 243501.1
Apr-19 1262 1126.3 972.9 1279.6 102.2 1114 21762.4
May-19 1100 1181.8 1046.6 1316.9 90.1 1382 79394.8
Jun-19 745 1121.3 1104.5 1138.0 11.2 1407 438188.8
Jul-19 867 993.5 1105.7 881.3 -74.8 1149 79618.03
Aug-19 668 845.0 1035.4 654.6 -126.9 807 19188.02
Sep-19 848 782.0 935.4 628.6 -102.3 528 102586.8
Oct-19 1023 851.5 868.0 835.0 -11.0 526 246739.9
Nov-19 980 879.8 839.6 919.9 26.8 824 24336
Dec-19 883 933.5 861.7 1005.3 47.9 947 4061.407
Jan-20 920 951.5 904.1 998.9 31.6 1053 17738.91
Feb-20 998 945.3 927.5 963.0 11.8 1031 1060.316
Mar-20 1460 1065.3 973.9 1156.6 60.9 975 235386.7
Apr-20 1212 1147.5 1027.4 1267.6 80.1 1218 30.71007
May-20 1106 1194.0 1088.0 1300.0 70.7 1348 58422.92
Jun-20 907 1171.3 1144.5 1198.0 17.8 1371 214986.8
|dt-dt'| PEt |PEt| dt'-dt d(t-1')-d(t-1) |(dt'-dt)-(d(t-1)'-d(t-1))|

878 1 1 -878 -712.0 166

86 0.08728 0.08728 -86 -878.0 791.854166666667
493 0.358097 0.358097 -493 -86.1 407.3125
148 0.116894 0.116894 -148 -493.5 345.9375
282 -0.256155 0.256155 282 -147.5 429.291666666667
662 -0.888535 0.888535 662 281.8 380.1875
282 -0.325452 0.325452 282 662.0 379.791666666667
139 -0.207367 0.207367 139 282.2 143.645833333333
320 0.377702 0.377702 -320 138.5 458.8125
497 0.485561 0.485561 -497 -320.3 176.4375
156 0.159184 0.159184 -156 -496.7 340.729166666667
64 -0.072173 0.072173 64 -156.0 219.729166666667
133 -0.144769 0.144769 133 63.7 69.4583333333334
33 -0.032628 0.032628 33 133.2 100.625
485 0.332306 0.332306 -485 32.6 517.729166666667
6 -0.004572 0.004572 6 -485.2 490.708333333333
242 -0.218543 0.218543 242 5.5 236.166666666666
464 -0.511209 0.511209 464 241.7 221.958333333333
MR 335.904411764706
UCL 893.505735294118
LCL -893.505735294118
 MRt UCL 2/3 UCL 1/3 UCL LCL 2/3 LCL 1/3 LCL CL
166 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
791.8542 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
407.3125 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
345.9375 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
429.2917 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
380.1875 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
379.7917 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
143.6458 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
458.8125 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
176.4375 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
340.7292 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
219.7292 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
69.45833 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
100.625 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
517.7292 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
490.7083 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
236.1667 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0
221.9583 893.5057 595.6705 297.8352 -893.5057 -595.6705 -297.8352 0

DMA
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000

MRt UCL 2/3 UCL 1/3 UCL

LCL 2/3 LCL 1/3 LCL CL