ENMG698c Lecture1

Lecture 1
Introduction to Project and Risk

Management
ENMG 698c: Special Topics - Project Risk Management - Dr. Rayan Khraibani
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Copyright © 2020-2021, American University of Beirut, All Rights Reserved
Rayan Khraibani, PhD
Resume Education
▪ Rayan Khraibani is co-founder and managing director of Mindsets with 17 years of professional ▪ PhD in Economics, Université
experience in engineering, business consulting, and decision and economic analysis with Dar Al- Cergy Pontoise, Paris
Handasah, Strategic Decisions Group, and Chevron, in the MENA region and the USA. ▪ Master’s Degree in
▪ Dr. Khraibani is an expert in strategy development, public-private-partnerships, program Engineering Management,
management, decision and economic analysis, and decision models. He has provided advisory American University of Beirut,
services in the GCC and North America for large urban developers, infrastructure conglomerates, Beirut
Rayan Khraibani, PhD retail businesses, and the public sector. He was an internal decision and economic advisor for ▪ Bachelor’s in Civil
Chevron’s technology venture arm and Chevron’s upstream business in the KSA/Kuwait Engineering, American
Co-Founder and partitioned zone. Universityof Beirut, Beirut
Managing Partner of
Mindsets
Previous Experience
Years of Experience ▪ Makkah Region Development Authority (MRDA), KSA: Co-Led the team for the provision of Consultancy Services for MRDA Department of
17 Years Strategy. Worked with the executive management to identify key opportunities, establish decision areas and design a winning strategy as a
framework for the strategic plan.
Expertise ▪ Saudi Ministry of Hajj, KSA: led the team for the provision of Pilgrims Transport Strategy.
▪ World Bank-Greater Beirut Urban Transport Project, Lebanon: Led the team for the development of PPP schemes and the
▪ Strategy Development
recommendation of the preferred model, as well as Assessing the ability to integrate current private operations into a PPP framework.
▪ Decision & Economic
▪ Greater Amman Municipality, Jordan: Led the team to support for the provision of technical, legal and financial advisory services for the
Analysis PPP contract of the envisaged BRT system.
▪ Financial Analysis & ▪ Dr. Khraibani has published in international journals and conferences on a variety of topics including investment decision making for civil
Modeling infrastructure, PPP decision models, and national debt forecasting.
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About Mindsets
We work with decision makers to create value, uncover opportunities, manage risk, and make sound strategic
decisions enabling a future of growth.
MINDSETS Advisory
Business Data Blockchain Artificial Intelligence Business
Data to Decision Mining Advisory Systems Intelligence
Investment Due Diligence Valuation

Mergers &
Divestitures
Analysis Acquisitions
• Strategic Management Strategy Development Strategic Plan Business Plan

• Investment Analysis
• Risk Analysis Strategic Operating Model Strategy Implementation Portfolio Prioritization
• Data to Decision Management
• Business & Digital
Transformation
Cost Risk Schedule Risk Risk Integrated Risk Tailored

Risk Analysis Analysis Analysis Assessment Management Analytical Services
Business & Digital People & Operational Digital Change

Organization Excellence Transformation Management
Transformation
* PPP CoE: Public Private Partnerships Center of Excellence
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Outline
▪ Presentation and Organization
▪ Projects: definition, management, life cycle

▪ Risk: definition and assessment
▪ Project risk management
▪ An example
▪ Assignment and readings
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Presentation and Organization
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Information
▪ Office Hours: by appointment
▪ E-Mail: rkhraibani@mindsetsadvisors.com
▪ Evaluation:
▪ Midterm 35%
▪ Class Participation and Attendance 10%
▪ Assignments/Cases 25%
▪ Final Presentation 30%
▪ Please refer to the syllabus for more information
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Course objectives
At the end of this course, the student will be able to:
▪ Understand the project risk management processes as described in the PMBOK
▪ Identify the input, tools, techniques, outputs and key documents for these processes
▪ Perform simple quantitative and qualitative risk analysis
▪ Develop response plans for project risks
▪ Appreciate when and how to adjust risk management to the project environment
▪ Interpret and communicate risk management results
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References
▪ Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) 9th Edition,
PMI Institute
▪ Fundamentals of Risk Management: Understanding, Evaluating and
Implementing Effective Risk Management (5th edition), Paul
Hopkin
▪ Project Risk Management: The Most Important Methods and Tools
for Successful Projects, Roland Wanner
▪ Scientific articles and case studies
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Projects: Definition, Management, Life
Cycle
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What is a project?
▪ A temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product, service or
result
▪ It has a beginning and an end

▪ When objectives have been achieved
▪ When it is terminated because objectives cannot be met
▪ When the need for the project no longer exists
Source: PMI
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Examples
▪ Construction (apartment building, nuclear plant, dam)
▪ IT
▪ Cultural, art, sport events
▪ Oil field development and production
▪ Land development
▪ New product / process / installation
▪ Community projects
▪…
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What is project management?
▪ The application of knowledge, skills, tools and techniques to project
activities to meet the project requirements
▪ Effective project management:

▪ Ties project results to business goals
▪ Allows for an efficient allocation of resources
▪ Is based on team organization
▪ Is oriented towards client satisfaction
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What are the project management components?
▪ Identify projects objectives and requirements
▪ Communicate with stakeholders
▪ Manage human and material resources
▪ Balance constraints (cost, quality, scope, schedule, resources, risk)
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What is the project life cycle?
▪ A project can be represented by a sequence of activities
▪ The life cycle of a project is a series of phases, from the start of the project
to the completion of deliverables
▪ Initiation
▪ Planning
▪ Execution
▪ Closing
▪ The execution phase involves regular monitoring and controlling activities,

as well as performance assessment
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Risk: Definition and Assessment
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What Is Risk/Uncertainty?
▪ Internal factors
▪ Technical risk: delays, breakdowns, costs, technical problems
▪ Human risk: errors, accidents, strikes
▪ Product or service risk: quality, technology, value
▪ External factors
▪ Economic risk: Competition, market, inflation, exchange rate
▪ Environmental risk: natural catastrophic events, pollution
▪ Political risk: legislation changes, privatization, nationalization, instability, conflicts
▪ Social risk: demography, social priorities
▪ Technological risk: discoveries, developments…
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Risk definition
▪ There is no precise definition – depends on the context and application
▪ Project risk is an uncertain event or condition that if it occurs has a positive
(opportunity) or negative (threat) effect on one or more project objectives
such as scope, schedule, cost, and quality
▪ Multidimensional concept
▪ Damages, consequences (values)
▪ Uncertainty (probability)
▪ Impact (decision maker’s circumstances)
▪ There is no universally accepted measure
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Risk and outcomes
▪ Risk refers to potential, uncertain future events
▪ If and when events are realized, they become (certain) outcomes. Outcomes
become issues that have to be addressed or managed
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Global Risk
▪ Is a combination of many elements
▪ Is related both to uncertainty, consequences, and their impact
▪ Usually decreases with time and with increasing information
▪ Is estimated subjectively – no single measure is universally accepted
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Risk analysis
▪ Risk evaluation
▪ Identify, quantify, characterize unwanted events
▪ Risk management
▪ Decision making, acceptable risks, communication, risk monitoring, mitigation and hedging
▪ The risk management plan tells you how you’re going to handle risk in your
project. It documents how you’ll assess risk, who is responsible for doing it, and
how often you’ll do risk planning
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Project risk management
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Characterization
▪ Risk refers to any event that could potentially impact a project’s timeline,
performance, budget…
▪ Project risk management is the process of identifying, analyzing and

responding to any risk that arises over the life cycle of a project
▪ Risk management is an integral part of project management
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Special features
▪ With respect to other application areas of risk analysis (e.g. production &
operations, investment finance, insurance), impacts in project risk
management are usually much more diverse
▪ Project risk management includes budgetary, scheduling, capacity, quality,
and operational issues
▪ Organizations and stakeholders have different attitudes to risks depending
on their
▪ Risk appetite (degree of uncertainty they are willing to take on in anticipation of a
reward) and
▪ Risk tolerance (degree or amount of risk they will withstand)
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Project Management Process Group and Knowledge
Area Mapping (PMBOK)
Knowledge Project Management Process Groups
Areas Initiating Planning Executing Monitoring & Controlling Closing
Integration 4.1 Develop project chart 4.2 Develop project mgmt plan 4.3 Direct & manage project work 4.5 Monitor & control project work 4.7 Close Project
4.4 Manage Project knowledge 4.6 Perform integrated change control or Phase
Scope 5.1 Plan Scope Management 5.5 Validate scope
5.2 Collect requirements 5.6 Control scope
5.3 Define scope
5.4 Create WBS
Schedule 6.1 Plan Schedule Management 6.6 Control schedule
6.2 Define activities
6.3 Sequence activities
6.4 Estimate activity durations
6.5 Develop Schedule
Cost 7.1 Plan Cost Management 7.4 Control costs
7.2 Estimate costs
7.3 Determine budget
Quality 8.1 Plan quality management 8.2 Manage quality 8.3 Control quality
Resource 9.1 Plan resource management 9.3 Acquire resources 9.6 Control resources
9.2 Estimate activity resources 9.4 Develop team
9.5 Manage team
Communications 10.1 Plan communications management 10.2 Manage Communications 10.3 Monitor Communications
Risk 11.1 Plan risk management 11.6 Implement risk responses 11.7 Monitor risks
11.2 Identify risks
11.3 Perform Qual. risk analysis
11.4 Perform Quant. risk analysis
11.5 Plan risk responses
Procurement 12.1 Plan Procurement management 12.2 Conduct procurements 12.3 Control procurements
Stakeholder 13.1 Identify stakeholders 13.2 Plan Stakeholder engagement 13.3 Manage Stakeholder Engagement 13.4 Monitor Stakeholder Engagement

The PRM process
Project Management Process Groups

Knowledge Initiating Planning Executing Monitoring & Closing
Area Controlling
Risk 11.1 Plan risk management 11.6 Implement risk 11.7 Monitor risks
11.2 Identify risks responses
11.3 Perform Qual. risk analysis
11.4 Perform Quant. risk analysis
11.5 Plan risk responses
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An example
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Risk Management for a Construction Project
Hierarchy of risk at building project in Indonesia. Source: Wiguna and Scott.
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Readings
1. Goh, C. S., Abdul-Rahman, H., & Abdul Samad, Z. (2013). Applying risk
management workshop for a public construction project: Case
study. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(5), 572-
580.
2. Sudirman, W. B., & Hardjomuljadi, S. (2011). Project risk management in
hydropower plant projects: A case study from the state-owned electricity
company of Indonesia. Journal of Infrastructure Development, 3(2), 171-
186.
3. Elkington, P., & Smallman, C. (2002). Managing project risks: a case study
from the utilities sector. International Journal of Project
Management, 20(1), 49-57.
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Assignment
Part 1: Choose one of the three papers (they are quite similar) for a critical reading
▪ What is the paper about?
▪ What have you learned?
▪ Is the paper useful? New? Interesting? Why or why not?
▪ How could it be completed/modified/improved?
Part 2: In a context of interest to you, suggest an example of a project and indicate

the main risks involved, along with their position in the project life cycle
This an individual assignment, and the response to each part should not exceed
one page
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References and certifications
▪ Project management institute https://www.pmi.org/
▪ Global association of risk professionals https://www.garp.org
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Lecture 1

Introduction to Project and Risk

Investment Due Diligence Valuation

• Strategic Management Strategy Development Strategic Plan Business Plan

Cost Risk Schedule Risk Risk Integrated Risk Tailored

Business & Digital People & Operational Digital Change

▪ Projects: definition, management, life cycle

▪ Please refer to the syllabus for more information

▪ Perform simple quantitative and qualitative risk analysis

▪ Develop response plans for project risks

▪ Interpret and communicate risk management results

▪ It has a beginning and an end

▪ Effective project management:

▪ Allows for an efficient allocation of resources

▪ Is based on team organization

▪ Is oriented towards client satisfaction

▪ Identify projects objectives and requirements

▪ Communicate with stakeholders

▪ Manage human and material resources

▪ Balance constraints (cost, quality, scope, schedule, resources, risk)

▪ The execution phase involves regular monitoring and controlling activities,

▪ Risk refers to potential, uncertain future events

become issues that have to be addressed or managed

▪ Is related both to uncertainty, consequences, and their impact

▪ Usually decreases with time and with increasing information

▪ Is estimated subjectively – no single measure is universally accepted

▪ Project risk management is the process of identifying, analyzing and

▪ Risk management is an integral part of project management

Copyright © 2020-2021, American University of Beirut, All Rights Reserved

Project Management Process Groups

Hierarchy of risk at building project in Indonesia. Source: Wiguna and Scott.

Part 2: In a context of interest to you, suggest an example of a project and indicate

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