Welcome to Module 5 of the Highway Safety Manual web-based training course.

This
module focuses on the Predictive Method provided in Part C of the HSM, which includes
Chapters 10, 11 and 12. This module will take approximately 40 minutes to complete.
Image description: Highway Safety Manual cover.
You can access and print a summary sheet for Module 5 by selecting the box.
Select Continue when you are ready to proceed.
Image description: Highway Safety Manual cover.
At the conclusion of this module you will be able to:
• Recognize predictive method applications;
• Identify the five basic steps of the predictive method; and
• Identify advantages and limitations of the predictive method.
We conclude this module with an example to demonstrate the use of the predictive method.
The predictive method can be used for evaluating and comparing the safety performance
of:
• Existing facilities under past or future traffic volumes;
• Alternative designs for an existing facility under past or future traffic volumes;
• Alternative designs for a new facility under future traffic volumes; and
• Proposed countermeasures on an existing facility prior to implementation.
As previously introduced, we can apply the predictive method in conjunction with other
parts of the HSM during the project planning and the design and construction stages of the
project development process. As part of project planning, we can apply the predictive
method during network screening (Part B, Chapter 4) to calculate the expected average
crash frequency to use as a performance measure when evaluating sites with potential for
safety improvement. We can also apply it during project planning to estimate a crash
reduction for conducting an economic appraisal (Part B, Chapter 7). Finally, we can also
apply the predictive method in conjunction with the Part D (Chapters 13-17) CMFs to
compare the effect on crash frequency of different design alternatives during project
planning or design and construction stages.
To use the predictive method, we prepare the crash data by dividing a facility into individual
sites that are homogenous roadway segments or intersections that share the same
roadway characteristics. The individual safety performance of each part of a facility is
combined to represent the safety performance of the entire facility. The HSM Part C
provides different SPFs for each facility type and intersection configuration. The facility
types include:
• Rural two-lane two-way roads in Chapter 10;
• Rural multilane highways in Chapter 11; and
• Urban and suburban arterials in Chapter 12.
Whether we are calculating the predicted crash frequency for an intersection or roadway
segment of any type, we use the same process. We need a safety performance function
(SPF), crash modification factors (CMFs) and a local calibration factor, where applicable.
• SPFs are equations used to calculate the predicted average crash frequency for a given
set of site conditions referred to as base conditions. These base conditions represent the
most common configuration in the dataset used to develop the SPF and do not reflect
ideal conditions.
• Adjustments to the SPF base conditions are made by multiplying the SPF by the
appropriate Part C Crash Modification Factors (CMFs). Each SPF in the HSM has
specific CMFs to convert the base prediction to local site specific conditions.
• The HSM SPFs were developed from crash information at several United States
locations. Therefore, we should also apply a calibration factor when using the SPFs from
the HSM. State or region-specific calibration factor (C) are developed for each SPF to
adjust the SPF to better represent local conditions.
The predictive method equation provided on the slide demonstrates the relationship of the
SPF, CMFs and calibration factor, C.
The predicted average crash frequency is the product of the SPF, the CMFs needed to
adjust the SPF to site conditions, and the local calibration factor, where appropriate. Let’s
take a closer look at each of these components.
The HSM provides SPFs for different segment and intersection configurations across
different facility types and across different severity groupings. Here are two examples,
including the SPF for rural two-lane highway segments (Equation 10-6) and the SPF for the
rural two-lane four-leg stop controlled intersection (Equation 10-9). Notice, the roadway
segment SPF is a function of the AADT and segment length. The intersection SPF
incorporates the major and minor approach AADT and regression coefficients to account for
intersection type.
The HSM also provides graphs for each SPF as illustrated here. This particular SPF is
Figure 12-15 of the HSM and is for single-vehicle crashes at three-legged signalized
intersections of urban and suburban arterials. The key predictive variables for this SPF are
the AADT of both major and minor traffic movements. The intent of this example is to notice
the general shape or non-linear form of the SPF function and AADT boundaries.
Image description: Graph showing AADT of minor approach.
The exhibit provides a summary of the SPFs available in the HSM based on roadway type
for roadway segments and geometrics and traffic control for intersections. Undivided
roadway segments are included in all three chapters; whereas divided roadway segments
are included in the rural multilane and urban and suburban arterials chapters. All three
chapters include three-leg and four-leg stop controlled intersections and four-leg signalized
intersections, but three-leg signalized intersections are only included for urban and
suburban arterials. These SPFs represent the most common segments and intersections
found on these three facility types.
The Chapter 12 predictive method for urban and suburban arterials is a bit more complex
than the other facility types. Chapter 12 includes predictive models for multiple modes of
transportation and multiple crash types.
For urban and suburban arterial intersections, the predicted average crash frequency is
calculated for multiple vehicle collisions, single vehicle crashes, vehicle-pedestrian crashes
and vehicle-bicycle crashes using the appropriate SPF and CMFs for each crash type. The
corresponding crash types for each site are then summed together and multiplied by the
calibration factor. Similarly for urban and suburban arterial roadway segments, crashes are
predicted using the appropriate SPF and CMFs for each of the following crash types:
multiple vehicle non-driveway collisions, multiple vehicle driveway-related collisions, single-
vehicle crashes, vehicle-pedestrian crashes and vehicle-bicycle crashes. Each of these
crash types is then summed together for each site.
Knowledge Check
The predictive method can be applied in the project development process to __________.
a) compare design alternatives for new facilities;
b) evaluate alternative designs for existing facilities;
c) evaluate proposed countermeasures; and
d) evaluate a proposed safety awareness campaign.
Select all the answers that apply, and then select Submit.
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The correct answers are:
a) compare design alternatives for new facilities;
b) evaluate alternative designs for existing facilities; and
c) evaluate proposed countermeasures.
Select Continue to proceed.
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The HSM incorporates a total of 18 steps for comprehensively performing the predictive
method. This training module simplifies the 18 steps presented in the HSM and discusses
the five fundamental steps used in all predictive method analysis applications. We also
provide an overview of the additional supplemental steps that may be applicable depending
on the situation, such as evaluating another time period, applying the EB method, and
evaluating design alternatives. Let’s begin our discussion on the five fundamental steps.
For all predictive analysis options, the following five fundamental steps are used.
1. Determine the data needs;
2. Divide the locations into homogeneous segments or intersections;
3. Identify and apply the appropriate SPF;
4. Apply CMFs to the calculated SPF value to adjust for site conditions; and
5. Apply the local calibration factor, if appropriate.
The application of the supplemental steps builds off the analysis conducted in these five
steps. Let’s take a closer look at each step.
Step 1 is to determine the data needs required to apply the predictive method to our site of
interest. This includes:
• Study limits;
• Facility type;
• Study period;
• Geometric design features, traffic control, and site characteristics; and
• Availability of traffic volumes for the study period:
• For intersections, we need AADT volumes for both the major and minor
approaches; and
• If we are using the EB Method, we need crash data and AADT volumes for each
year observed crash data are available.
Once we have determined our data needs, the second step is to divide the study area into
individual homogeneous or similar roadway segments and intersections.
This example illustrates how we divide a facility into intersection and roadway segments.
Intersections are defined as the junction of two or more roadway segments. The
intersection models estimate the predicted average frequency of crashes that occur within
the “curb line” limits of an intersection as well as intersection-related crashes that occur on
the intersection approaches. A roadway segment begins and ends at either the center of
an intersection or where there is a change from one homogeneous roadway segment to
another homogeneous segment.
Using these definitions, the roadway segment predictive models estimate the frequency of
crashes that would occur on the roadway if intersections were not present. The intersection
predictive models estimate the frequency of additional crashes that occur due to the
presence of the intersection.
Image description: Diagram of intersection segment length.
Homogenous intersections or segments can be identified based on changes in intersection
type, number of lanes, cross section dimensions (e.g., lane width, shoulder width),
alignment (e.g., horizontal, vertical), roadside conditions or traffic volumes. For roadway
segments, we should use a site length greater than or equal to one-tenth of a mile. Smaller
segments result in excessive and needless calculations.
As an example, consider we are identifying boundaries of homogeneous features, and we
collect field measurements. At one location we measure a lane width of 11.8 feet, while
downstream we measure a lane width of 12.1 feet. In this case, it is reasonable for us to
assume both segments have lanes widths of approximately 12 feet and to group these two
segments as part of the one homogeneous segment. On the other hand, if we measured
the downstream lane width equal to 10.3 feet, then the lane widths are no longer similar,
and we should not include the two locations in the same study segment. The HSM provides
recommendations for rounding variables to help us clarify the boundaries of homogeneous
segments. The HSM recommends rounding lane widths to the closest 0.5-feet when
establishing boundaries between homogeneous segments.
Image description 1: Car traveling along a desert highway.
Image description 2: Aerial view of a road running through the mountains.
Once we have divided our locations into homogenous segments or locations, step 3 is to
identify and apply the appropriate SPF to calculate the predicted crashes for the first site,
beginning with the initial period of interest.
The appropriate SPF is based on facility type, location, and whether we are evaluating an
intersection or roadway segment. SPFs for both intersections and roadway segments are
contained in the relevant chapter of Part C, which includes two-lane rural highways
(Chapter 10), multilane rural highways (Chapter 11), and urban/suburban arterials (Chapter
12).
Research to develop SPFs for freeways and interchanges will be included in future editions
of the HSM subject to AASHTO approval.
Image description 1: Two-lane rural mountain highway.
Image description 2: Suburban intersection.
Image description 3: Multilane rural desert highway.
After we have applied the appropriate SPF, step 4 applies CMFs to convert the SPF from
base conditions to the conditions of our site.
As previously mentioned, each SPF was developed for particular base conditions, with
specific geometric design and traffic control features. The HSM specifies base conditions
for all SPFs provided.
We first review the applicable SPF base conditions and determine how our study site differs
from the base conditions. We then identify the CMFs in Part C that are specific to the SPF
we are applying. Finally, we multiply the SPF value by the identified CMFs to adjust the
SPF to our study site’s conditions.
All of the Part C chapters provide specific CMFs that apply to each particular SPF.
Summarized here are the base conditions for two-lane rural road segments, provided in
Chapter 10. The base conditions include a 12-foot lane width, 6-foot paved shoulder width,
roadside hazard rating of three, five driveways per mile, no vertical grade, no centerline
rumble strips, no passing lanes, no two-way left turn lanes, no lighting and no automated
speed enforcement. Changes in these base conditions requires us to use the appropriate
CMF to adjust the prediction to our site conditions. For example, since the base conditions
are a 12-foot lane width, if the roadway we are investigating has a 10-foot lane width, we
adjust the SPF using a CMF for a 10-foot lane.
You can view the base conditions for rural two-lane intersections, rural multilane divided
highway segments, rural multilane divided intersections, urban/suburban arterial segments
and urban/suburban arterial intersections by selecting the corresponding boxes.
When you are done, select Continue to proceed.
The base conditions for two-lane rural road intersections include:
• 90 degree angle (no skew);
• No left turn lanes;
• No right turn lanes; and
• No lighting.
The base conditions for a rural multilane divided highway road segment include:
• 12-foot lane width;

• 8-foot shoulder width;

• 30-foot median (four-lane divided);

• No lighting; and

• No automated speed enforcement.

The base conditions for a multilane rural divided highway intersection include:
• 90 degree angle (no skew);

• No left-turn lanes;

• No right-turn lanes; and

• No lighting.
The base conditions for urban and suburban arterial road segments include:
• No on-street parking;

• No roadside fixed objects;

• 15-foot median (four-lane divided);

• No lighting; and

• No automated speed enforcement.

The base conditions for urban and suburban arterial intersections include:
• No left-turn lanes;

• Permissive left-turn signal phasing;

• No right-turn lanes;

• Right-turn on red permitted;

• No lighting;

• No automated enforcement; and

• No bus stops, schools or alcohol sales establishments near intersection.

The Part C chapters provide CMFs that correspond to the base conditions identified for each
SPF in the HSM.

As we discussed in the previous module, only the CMFs provided in Part C (Chapters 10-12)
can be used with the predictive method to adjust an SPF to site conditions. CMFs from Part D
(Chapters 13-17) or other sources, such as the CMF Clearinghouse, are not necessarily based
on the same base conditions as the SPFs provided in Part C and should not be applied in the
predictive method procedure.
Once we have applied CMFs to adjust the SPF to our site conditions, step 5 is to apply a
local calibration factor.
As previously mentioned, the SPFs provided in the HSM were developed using data from
multiple jurisdictions, and therefore should be calibrated to the specific study site or area.
We apply the calibration factor (C) to each SPF in the predictive method to convert the
expected number of crashes to an adjusted value appropriate for the study site. The
calibration factor helps us account for regional differences, such as differences in driving
behavior, roadway design standards and weather.
Separate calibration factors are required for each SPF (e.g., rural two-lane two-way
roadway, rural multilane highway and urban and suburban arterials, segments and
intersections). If regional calibration factors have not yet been developed, we can still use
the SPFs for approximate estimates, suitable for relative comparisons to other SPF-
generated values. However, the level of precision is less than estimates achieved using
calibration factors. The development of calibration factors is discussed further in Module 6.
In addition to the five basic steps we just discussed, the HSM predictive method procedure
can be used to further evaluate different time periods or different sites for comparisons or
enhance prediction quality by using historic crash information through supplemental steps.
For example the Empirical Bayes (EB) method combines the predicted crash frequency
and observed crash frequency to calculate expected average crash frequency. The
supplemental steps are conducted as follows:
6. If there is another year we want to evaluate in the study period, we repeat the basic steps
for the remaining years.
7. If the site specific EB method is applicable, we apply the site-specific EB Method.
8. If there is an additional site we want to evaluate, we repeat the basic steps for the next
site, beginning at step one.
9. If we are unable to assign crash data to specific sites, we can apply the project-level EB
Method.
10. If we are evaluating a corridor or network, we sum all of the sites and years to estimate
the total expected crashes for project.
11. If there is an alternative design, treatment, or forecast AADT to be evaluated, we start at
the beginning of the process again at step one.
12. Finally we evaluate and compare results.
While it is not necessary to conduct all of these supplemental steps, they are presented in
the order in which you would conduct them. Additional information on each of these steps is
provided at the beginning of each Chapter in Part C (Chapters 10-12). Detailed procedures
for the site-specific and project level EB method are included in the Part C Appendix.
Module 6 discusses the process for Step 7, applying the site specific EB method.
Knowledge Check
________ are applied in the predictive method to adjust the HSM SPF base conditions to
the conditions of a study site.
a) Crash modification factors;
b) Calibration factors; or
c) Safety performance functions.
Select the correct answer, and then select Submit.
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The correct answer is a, crash modification factors.
Select Continue to proceed.
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Advantages of using the predictive method include:
• It accounts for the effects of regression-to-the-mean, if the Empirical Bayes method is
used; and
• It provides a method of crash estimation for sites or facilities that have not yet been
constructed or have not been in operation long enough to make an estimate based on
observed crash data.
While there are advantages of the predictive method, there are still a few limitations:

• The predictive method uses models to incorporate the effects of many, but not all,
geometric designs and traffic control features. The absence of a factor in the predictive
method does not necessarily mean it has no effect on crash frequency, rather its effect is
not known or has not been quantified.
• Non-geometric factors can only be considered in a general sense. While calibration
factors are used to account for statewide or communitywide influences, driver
populations can vary significantly from site to site in terms of age distribution, seat belt
usage, alcohol use and other behavioral factors and have a substantial impact on crash
frequencies. Also, the predictive method does not address the effects of weather, traffic
volume variations during the day or proportions of trucks or motorcycles.
• Furthermore, the predictive method treats the effects of individual geometric design and
traffic control features as independent of one another and ignores potential interactions
between them, which likely exist.
Identify benefits of the predictive method:
a) Accounts for all geometric and traffic control features;
b) Explicitly considers non-geometric factors;
c) Accounts for regression-to-the-mean bias; and
d) Provides method of crash estimation for sites or facilities that have not yet been
constructed.
Select all the answers that apply, and then select Submit.
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The correct answers are:
c) Accounts for regression-to-the-man bias; and
d) Provides method of crash estimation for sites or facilities that have not yet been
constructed.
Select Continue to proceed.
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Let’s go through an example application of the predictive method for a rural two-lane, two-
way roadway segment.
Our study segment is 1.8 miles in length with an AADT of 1,800 vehicles per day. The
existing site conditions are consistent with the SPF base conditions for a rural two-lane two-
way road with the exception of lane width, which is 11 feet instead of 12. This location is
located in a remote area and does not include any intersections. The segment is
homogeneous.
The region has developed a local calibration factor for two-lane two-way rural roadways
equal to 0.90.
Unfortunately we do not have historic crash information available for this site, so we cannot
apply the EB method.
Since we have already identified our homogeneous roadway segment and available data,
we will start with Step 3.
Step 3 is to identify and apply the appropriate SPF. Provided here is Equation 10-6 from the
HSM, which represents the SPF for rural two-lane, two-way road segments. This particular
SPF is applicable for roadway segments within the AADT range of 0 to 17,800 vehicles per
day. Applying this SPF to sites with AADTs substantially outside this range may provide
unreliable results.
Nspf rs is the estimated total crash frequency for the roadway segment base conditions and is
a function of the AADT and length of the roadway segment. The over-dispersion parameter,
k, is also provided (Equation 10-7) and is also a function of the segment length. The over-
dispersion parameter is a statistical measure used to assess how well the SPF fit the data
that was used to develop the equation.
Now that we have identified the appropriate SPF, we apply it. Using our site’s AADT of
1,800 vehicles per day and segment length of 1.8 miles, our estimated total crash
frequency for base conditions is equal to 0.865.
Step 4 applies CMFs to the calculated SPF value for site characteristics that vary from base
conditions. In this case, we need to adjust for the lane width of our study segment, which is
11 feet compared to the base condition of 12 feet.
The HSM provides CMFs in both graphical and functional formats. This is Figure 10-7 from
the HSM and represents the CMF for lane width for rural two-lane two-way segments,
which is also provided in functional format in Table 10-8. The CMF is represented by the y-
axis and the AADT is represented by the x-axis. The lines on the graph each represent a
different lane width. Recall 12-foot lanes is the base condition and is shown with a CMF
value of one on the graph.
Image description: Chart: Rural 2-lane, 2-way Segments Lane Width CMF.
For our segment with an 11-foot lane width and an AADT of 1,800 vehicles per day, the
CMFra is approximately 1.05. However, notice the note on the left hand corner of this figure
indicates this CMF only applies to single-vehicle run-off-road and multiple-vehicle head-on,
opposite direction sideswipe and same-direction sideswipe crashes. This means the CMFra
value is applicable only to a subset of possible crashes, referred to as “related crashes.”
Therefore, we must proportionally adjust this CMFra to a CMF to estimate for the total
number of crashes, using the same procedure to adjust the CMFs in the example in Module
4.
Image description: Chart: Rural 2-lane, 2-way Segments Lane Width CMF.
The HSM provides default distribution by collision type for specific crash severity levels on
rural two-lane, two-way roadway segments in Table 10-4. These default distributions are
applied to crash modification factors that only apply to a particular collision type, to
proportionally adjust the CMFra to reflect the total population. States are encouraged to
develop their own State or region-specific distribution tables; however, in absence of such
information, the use of default values are recommended.
Here we use the default distributions to determine the total proportion of single vehicle run
off road crashes and multiple vehicle head-on and sideswipe collisions. For these three
crash types, the total proportion is equal to 57.4 percent.
Since our CMF only applies to a subset of crashes, we must use Equation 10-11 in the
HSM to adjust to total crashes. Recall that the CMFra is equal to 1.05 and proportion of
related crashes is equal to 0.574. Using equation 10-11, calculate the CMF for total
crashes. When you have finished, select the results box to view the correct answer.
This results in a CMF for total crashes of 1.0287.
Finally, we multiply the SPF by the calibration factor and adjusted CMF to calculate the predicted
total crashes for our study segment.
Recall from Step 3, the SPF for this segment is equal to 0.865, our calibration factor was defined
as 0.9 in the problem definition, and based on Step 4 the CMF is equal to 1.0287. Therefore, our
predicted value is 0.80 crashes per year.
There are a couple resources available for you to use in applying the HSM Part C predictive
method.
• The first is the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model, which is available for free from
the IHSDM web site. The 2011 release includes six evaluation modules: crash prediction,
policy review, deign consistency, traffic analysis, driver/vehicle and intersection review.
The crash prediction module implements the HSM Part C predictive method for
evaluating rural two-lane highways, rural multilane highways and urban/suburban
arterials.
• Another resource is a set of three spreadsheets developed by the project team for
NCHRP Project 17-38, Highway Safety Manual Implementation and Training Materials.
These spreadsheets demonstrate the crash prediction procedures for rural two-lane two-
way roads, rural multilane highways and urban and suburban arterials as demonstrated in
the worksheets for Part C. Though these spreadsheets were developed to help safety
professionals learn the application of site-specific predictive method applications, they
can easily be customized to meet the needs of any transportation agency. These
spreadsheets can be found on the HSM web site.
When you are ready, select Continue to proceed.
There are also several additional training opportunities available through NHI related to the
predictive method, including training on the use of IHSDM and HSM practitioner’s guide to
geometric design features, two-lane rural highways, multilane highways and intersections.
Confirm course availability on the NHI web site. Access the NHI web site to find additional
information on these and other related training courses.
When you are ready, select Continue to proceed.
This module provided us with an overview of the predictive method, including applications,
basic analysis steps, optional supplemental steps, advantages and limitations. We
concluded this module with an example application of the predictive method process.
Knowledge Check
The HSM Part C includes predictive models for __________ facilities.
a) urban and suburban arterial;
b) urban freeway;
c) rural multilane highway; and
d) rural two-lane two-way road.
Select all the answers that apply, and then select Submit.
Image description: Knowledge Check icon.
The correct answers are:
a) urban and suburban arterial;
c) rural multilane highway; and
d) rural two-lane two-way road.
Select Continue to proceed.
Image description: Knowledge Check icon.
Knowledge Check
________ are applied in the predictive method to adjust HSM SPFs to local conditions.
a) Crash modification factors;
b) Calibration factors; or
c) Supplemental steps.
Select the correct answer, and then select Submit.
Image description: Knowledge Check icon.
The correct answer is b, calibration factors.
Select Continue to proceed.
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Knowledge Check
The absence of a particular geometric design or traffic control feature in the predictive
method means _________.
a) there is no effect on safety;
b) a calibration factor must be applied; or
c) its effect is not known or has not been quantified.
Select the correct answer, and then select Submit.
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The correct answer is c, its effect is not known or has not been quantified.
Select Continue to proceed.
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This concludes Module 5. Module 6 continues our discussion on the predictive method,
focusing on methods to improve the accuracy of our predictive method results.
You may now return to the training curriculum and select the next module. To close this
module, select the “X” in the upper right hand corner of your screen.
Image description: Highway Safety Manual cover.