Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Dashboard for a
New Economy
Towards a New
Compass for the
Post-COVID Recovery
October 2020
Dashboard for a New Economy
Towards a New Compass for the
Post-COVID Recovery
Contents
Introduction 4
Prosperity 9
Planet 11
People 12
Institutions 12
A call to action 14
Appendix 15
References 17
Acknowledgments 20
3
Dashboard for a New Economy
Introduction
4
Dashboard for a New Economy
5
Dashboard for a New Economy
6
Dashboard for a New Economy
7
Dashboard for a New Economy
8 Cottam, 2020
9 Ibid.
8
Dashboard for a New Economy
Assessing the
current state of
economic recovery
A multidimensional view of the recovery countries and sectors and the recovery is
will be critical to shaping the kind of losing momentum as uncertainty over a
transformation that is being called for by second wave of COVID-19 is high and firms
the present moment. Building on the continue to lay off workers. GDP recovery
analytical framework outlined above, paths of the largest economies are diverging
this report presents an assessment of as China and Germany pull ahead of the
the ongoing economic recovery that United States, France, Italy, Spain and the
is broader than in previous editions of United Kingdom.11
the Forum’s Chief Economists Outlook,
where this analysis is usually presented. The economic recovery also varies significantly
The assessment follows the Dashboard by sector, with services – in particular, travel,
structure laid out in the first part of the hospitality and entertainment – edging back
report (see Table 1) to the extent possible. only slowly as consumers remain cautious
It is organized around the four pillars of and new local restrictions are put in place.12
prosperity, planet, people and institutions. Uncertainty on the timing of a full GDP
recovery to 2019 levels is high. The Forum’s
Given that data on many relevant latest Chief Economists Survey yielded a
dimensions is not yet collected at high range of estimates between the second half
frequency and in a systematic way, the of 2021 to the second half of 2022, for high-
assessment also draws on anecdotal and middle-income countries. The average
evidence. In the longer run, our aim is expectation for both was the first half of 2022.
to identify the most appropriate data For low-income countries, the survey records
sources for consistent assessment of each a consensus on a recovery to 2019 levels in
dimension over time. the second half of 2022 (see Figures 1-3).
10 OECD, 2020
11 Allianz, 2020
12 Citi, 2020
13 ILO, 2020; Rizk, 2020
9
Dashboard for a New Economy
maintained thanks to rapid emergency be fairly soon, over the course of the first
measures, supporting households either half of 2021, the survey also reveals that
through unemployment benefits (in the most respondents feel that governments
US) or wage support schemes and shorter do not yet have convincing plans in place
hours (in Europe). to make a transition – at most, moderately
so in advanced economies, much less in
However, threats to further economic and emerging markets (see Figures 4, 9 and 10).
social polarization are many, including in
advanced economies. In the longer run, the Financial resilience
crisis has accelerated automation, while The scale of the economic transformation
reskilling is not moving fast enough in high- will, to a large extent, depend on the fiscal
income countries and digital leapfrogging is space that countries will be able to keep
not materializing at a sufficient scale in low- over the coming months. Debt dynamics
and middle-income countries.14 are looking stable for high-income countries
with expectations on the likelihood of a debt
Most respondents to the Chief Economists default crisis averaging at 15% in the Chief
Survey do not expect jobs coming back in Economists Survey (see Figure 5). Monetary
the recovery to be of comparable quality policy has remained fully accommodative
to pre-COVID-19 jobs (see Figure 7). There of fiscal rescue and stimulus measures
is, further, a risk of reduced access to in advanced economies, while inflation
labour markets for the young, as a result expectations remain low over the medium
of interrupted and unequal access to run. Despite the announcement by the US
schooling and the resulting loss of human Federal Reserve to move to average inflation
capital. Since it is strongly expected that the targeting and placing a higher weight on
disconnect between the labour and stock employment targets, most respondents to
markets is going to remain a feature of the the Chief Economists Survey expect US
US economy in the medium run, according inflation to edge up only slightly as a result
to the latest Chief Economists Survey, of the Fed move (see Figure 11).
wealth inequality is also likely to rise (see
Figure 8). The likelihood of a debt default crisis is,
however, estimated to be higher for middle-
The critical challenge in the coming months and low-income countries, which are
will be for policy-makers to find the right much more constrained when it comes to
moment and plan to phase out emergency monetary policy space and access to global
rescue measures in favour of interventions capital markets. The Chief Economists
that encourage structural change. This Survey yielded an average expected default
is true both for general wage support risk of around 30% for middle-income
programmes being phased out in favour countries and just under 50% for low-
of more targeted investments supporting income countries (see Figure 5).
job creation in growth sectors, and general
bailout measures making way for new
businesses and markets. While most
respondents to the Chief Economists Survey
feel that the right point in time for Europe to
phase out wage support programmes would
10
Dashboard for a New Economy
11
Dashboard for a New Economy
There is, however, the possibility to reverse institutionalized support for civil society,
these distributional effects by refunding recognizing it as a third force in society
carbon taxes through targeted national on a par with markets and the state.23
carbon dividends.
Institutions
People
Institutional context
Human capital and social resilience Longer-term global developments of
Three dimensions of the recovery are the institutional context are concerning;
important when it comes to human capital institutional quality has been, in many
and social resilience and will need to be dimensions, deteriorating around the world,
closely tracked if the recovery is to be with negative trends in freedom of the press,
broad-based and inclusive. judicial independence, legal frameworks and
budget transparency.24
These are allocations of public money
in fiscal packages to, first, expand Trust in government has evolved very
healthcare capacity and, second, reskill differently across countries during the
those who have lost or are at risk of crisis, depending mainly on two factors
losing their jobs in the structural – the level of trust that pre-dated the
transformation to come. Data quality pandemic, and leadership behaviour during
on these dimensions will need to be the crisis. Yet, the crisis has provided an
urgently improved as it is currently less opportunity to make up lost ground: pay-
systematically and frequently collected. offs for governments that manage the crisis
Third, tracking social resilience and the generously are potentially huge in terms of
evolution of social capital will be equally renewed trust.25 New Zealand, for example,
important in shaping the recovery. saw a significant jump in trust during the
Anecdotal evidence from the UK suggests pandemic thanks to decisive and well-
that the pandemic has strengthened the communicated government action.26
social fabric, at least temporarily. When
the crisis first broke, the number of
volunteers offering to support frontline
workers in the UK National Health Service
(NHS) was 750,000.21
21 Haldane, 2020
22 Cottam, 2020
23 Cottam, 2020; Rajan, 2019; Haldane, 2020; Bowles and Carlin, 2020
24 World Economic Forum, 2009-2019
25 Spence and Brady, 2020
26 Sibley et al., 2020
12
Dashboard for a New Economy
1. When do you estimate 2. When do you estimate 3. When do you estimate 4. For the case of Europe,
GDP will revert to its GDP will revert to its GDP will revert to its what will be the right point in
pre-COVID level? – For pre-COVID level? – For pre-COVID level? – For time to phase out general
high-income countries middle-income countries low-income countries wage support programs in
favour of measures supporting
structural change?
H1 2021
H2 2021
H1 2022
H2 2022
H1 2023
H2 2023+
H1 2021
H2 2021
H1 2022
H2 2022
H1 2023
H2 2023+
H1 2021
H2 2021
H1 2022
H2 2022
H1 2023
H2 2023+
Now
H1 2021
H2 2021
H1 2022
H2 2022+
5. How high do you estimate the likelihood of a debt default crisis 6. What is the top development in the last three months that
in the next 18 months? (likelihood in %) gives you cause for optimism?
High-income countries 15.0 Rapid progress with vaccine and test development (multiple
mentions), rapid large-scale policy intervention (multiple
Middle-income countries 31.6
mentions), recovery in China, racial justice protests, tame
inflation environment, greater awareness of ESG,
Low-income countries 49.2
institutionalization of practices that are both more efficient
and environmental, embrace of sustainability plans,
movement on reskilling by governments
7. As labour demand 8. The disconnect between the 9. Fiscal rescue measures in 10. Fiscal rescue measures
is coming back, rehiring stock market and the state of place are sufficiently in place are sufficiently
conditions will be the labour market will remain a accompanied by plans to allow accompanied by plans to allow
comparable to pre-COVID feature of the US economy in for structural adjustments. for structural adjustments.
job quality in terms of the medium run. – For high-income countries – For emerging markets
contracts and compensation.
agree
Strongly
Agree
Uncertain
Disagree
disagree
Strongly
agree
Strongly
Agree
Uncertain
Disagree
disagree
Strongly
agree
Strongly
Agree
Uncertain
Disagree
disagree
Strongly
agree
Strongly
Agree
Uncertain
Disagree
disagree
Strongly
11. How will the shift to average inflation targeting by the Federal 12. How do you assess global progress by governments in
Reserve affect USD inflation outcomes over the medium run? implementing multi-dimensional measures of economic progress
beyond GDP?
No effect Weak
13
Dashboard for a New Economy
A call to action
The COVID-19 crisis has starkly exposed move will be critical in providing a direction
the inadequacies of our economic systems for government investment and public
and institutions. Government and business spending to support the post-pandemic
leaders now find themselves at a historic recovery and transformation.
crossroads, as they are challenged to
shape the recovery. A business-as-usual Encouraged by the recent traction for
recovery in GDP growth and firm profitability convergence on non-financial business
alone will not be sufficient. What is needed success metrics at the firm level, we believe
now is a “Great Reset”, guided by a that such rapid progress is also possible at
compass for governments and firms with a a macroeconomic level. Importantly, these
broader set of targets that is widely adopted are not simply questions to be addressed
and fully operationalized. after the COVID-19 crisis subsides –
forward-thinking leaders should take action
This paper aims to provide a platform now to reset their compass for the recovery.
as a starting point for a renewed
international effort to converge on and Governments, policy-makers, members
implement economic policy targets and partners of the World Economic
beyond GDP growth, following pioneering Forum as well as other stakeholders
countries, such as New Zealand, that have interested in learning more about joining
formally integrated a multidimensional set this effort are encouraged to contact us at:
of targets into their budget process. Such a nes_dashboard@weforum.org.
14
Dashboard for a New Economy
Appendix
Concept Examples
Prosperity
Distributional outcomes Median income; Income and Wealth Gini; Forum Social
Mobility Index (SMI): fair wage distribution (pillar 7);
working conditions (pillar 8); social protection (pillar 9)
Planet
15
Dashboard for a New Economy
People
Human capital: education UNDP Human Development Index (HDI) (2019): expected
years of schooling, mean years of schooling; Forum GCI
(2019): current workforce, skills of current workforce,
future workforce, skills of future workforce; Forum SMI:
education access (pillar 2), education quality and equity
(pillar 3); life-long learning (pillar 4)
Human capital: UNDP HDI (2019): Life expectancy at birth; Forum GCI
public health (2019): Healthy life expectancy years; Forum SMI (2020):
Adolescent birth rate, prevalence of malnourishment,
health access and quality index, inequality-adjusted
healthy life expectancy index
Social resilience: OECD How’s Life (2020): Social support, time spent in
social connections social interactions, satisfaction with personal relationships
Institutions
Institutional context Forum GCI (2019): Security, social capital, checks and
balances, public-sector performance, transparency,
property rights, corporate governance, future orientation
of government (all sub-pillars of pillar 1 “Institutions”)
16
Dashboard for a New Economy
References
Allianz, 24 September 2020, “Living on with a Covid hum”, Economic Outlook, https://www.
allianz.com/en/economic_research/publications/specials_fmo/2020_09_24_scenarios.html
Banerjee, Abhijit and Esther Duflo, 2019, “Good Economics for Hard Times”
Barclays, 24 September 2020, “Better than Feared”, Economics Outlook, Barclays
Economic Research
Brynjolfsson, Erik, Avinash Collis, Erwin Diewert, Felix Eggers, and Kevin Fox. 2019, “GDP-B:
Accounting for the Value of New and Free Goods in the Digital Economy” , UNSW Business
School Research Paper, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3356697
Bowles, Samuel, and Wendy Carlin, 2020, “Shrinking Capitalism”, AEA Papers and
Proceedings, 110: 372-77
Brussevich, Mariya, Era Dabla-Norris, Era and Salma Khalid, 12 June 2020, “Who will
Bear the Brunt of Lockdown Policies? Evidence from Tele-workability Measures Across
Countries”, IMF Working Papers. 20. 10.5089/9781513546285.001, https://www.imf.org/
en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/06/12/Who-will-Bear-the-Brunt-of-Lockdown-Policies-
Evidence-from-Tele-workability-Measures-Across-49479
Citi, 25 September 2020, “Stalling Rebound and Fragile Prospects: The Role for Consumer
Services”, Citi Global Economic Outlook and Strategy
Commission on Growth and Development, 2008, “The Growth Report: Strategies for
Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development”, Washington DC, World Bank
Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, 2009,
Final Report (Stiglitz, Sen, Fitoussi Report)
Cottam, Hilary, 2020, “Welfare 5.0: Why we need a social revolution and how to make it
happen”, UCL IIPP working paper 2020-10, https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/public-purpose/
publications/2020/sep/welfare-50-why-we-need-social-revolution-and-how-make-it-happen
Coyle, Diane (2014), “GDP: A brief but affectionate history”, Princeton University Press
Coyle, Diane, and Mitra-Khan, Benjamin, 2017, “Making the Future Count”, mimeo
Coyle, Diane et al., 2019, Bennett Institute Wealth Economy Project on Natural and Social
Capital, https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/research/research-projects/wealth-
economy-social-and-natural-capital/
Dorband, Ira Irina, Michael Jakob, Matthias Kalkuhl, and Jan Christoph Steckel, 2019,
“Poverty and Distributional Effects of Carbon-Pricing in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
– A Global Comparative Analysis”, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/
S0305750X18304212
17
Dashboard for a New Economy
18
Dashboard for a New Economy
Sager, Lutz, April 2019, “The Global Consumer Incidence of Carbon Pricing: Evidence from
Trade”, LSE Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, https://
www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/publication/the-global-consumer-incidence-of-carbon-
pricing/
Siddiqi, Lutfey, “Nine Policy Taboos Overturned by Covid-19”, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/
businessreview/2020/05/01/nine-policy-taboos-overturned-by-covid-19/
Spence, Michael and David W. Brady, “Covid-19 and the Trust Deficit”, https://www.project-
syndicate.org/onpoint/covid-19-and-the-trust-deficit-by-david-w-brady-and-michael-
spence-2020-04
The Economist, 3 October 2020, “In the soup: The proliferation of sustainability accounting
standards comes with costs”, https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-
proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs
United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Reports, http://www.hdr.
undp.org/
Varro, Laszlo, Sylvia Beyer, Peter Journeay-Kaler and Kathleen Gaffney, 2020, “Green Stimulus
after the 2008 Crisis”, https://www.iea.org/articles/green-stimulus-after-the-2008-crisis
Vox, 8 June 2019, “Forget GDP, New Zealand is prioritizing gross national well-being”,
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/8/18656710/new-zealand-wellbeing-budget-
bhutan-happiness
World Economic Forum, 2017, “The Inclusive Growth and Development Report”, https://
www.weforum.org/reports/the-inclusive-growth-and-development-report-2017
World Economic Forum, 2009-2019, “The Global Competitiveness Report”, http://www3.
weforum.org/docs/WEF_TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2019.pdf
World Economic Forum, 2019, “Dialogue Series on New Economic and Social Frontiers:
Shaping the New Economy in the Fourth Industrial Revolution”, http://www3.weforum.org/
docs/WEF_Dialogue_Series_on_New_Economic_and_Social_Frontiers.pdf
World Economic Forum, 2020, “The Global Social Mobility Report 2020”, http://www3.
weforum.org/docs/Global_Social_Mobility_Report.pdf
World Economic Forum, 2020, “Toward Common Metrics and Consistent Reporting of
Sustainable Value Creation”, http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_IBC_ESG_Metrics_
Discussion_Paper.pdf
World Economic Forum in collaboration with Willis Towers Watson, 2020, “Human Capital
as an Asset: An Accounting Framework to Reset the Value of Talent in the New World
of Work”, https://www.weforum.org/reports/human-capital-as-an-asset-an-accounting-
framework-to-reset-the-value-of-talent-in-the-new-world-of-work
19
Dashboard for a New Economy
Acknowledgments
The World Economic Forum would like their collaboration on this effort, in particular
to thank the members of the Platform for to Roberto Crotti, Attilio Di Battista and
Shaping the Future of the New Economy Guillaume Hingel for helpful comments and
and Society’s Global Future Council on suggestions, to Janet Hill for her excellent
the New Economic Agenda 2019-2020 copyediting work and Jean-Philippe
and the Community of Chief Economists Stanway and Floris Landi for their superb
for their thought leadership and guidance. graphic design and layout.
We also thank the members of the broader
core community of the platform for their The views expressed in this briefing do not
ongoing commitment and contributions necessarily represent the views of the World
to addressing several of the challenges Economic Forum nor those of its Members
discussed in this report. and Partners. This briefing is a contribution
to the World Economic Forum’s insight and
We are further grateful to our colleagues interaction activities and is published to elicit
in the New Economy and Society team for comments and further debate.
20
Dashboard for a New Economy
Silja Baller, Insights Lead, Frontier Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, Platform
Solutions, Platform for Shaping the Future of for Shaping the Future of the New Economy
the New Economy and Society and Society
Till Leopold, Head, Frontier Solutions,
Platform for Shaping the Future of the New
Economy and Society
21
The World Economic Forum,
committed to improving
the state of the world, is the
International Organization for
Public-Private Cooperation.
contact@weforum.org
www.weforum.org