North America United States

Company

Industrials Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

14 December 2009
Company Update
XTO Energy
Reuters: XTO.N Bloomberg: XTO UN Exchange: NYS Ticker: XTO Hold
Price at 14 Dec 2009 (USD) 47.86

Christmas comes early; XOM

Global Markets Research

Price Target 47.00

52-week range 47.86 - 29.19

to buy XTO at 25% premium

Price/price relative
75

60
Shannon Nome Patrick Johnston
Research Analyst Research Associate 45

(+1) 832 239-3144 (+1) 832 239-3113 30

shannon.nome@db.com patrick.johnston@db.com 15
12/06 6/07 12/07 6/08 12/08 6/09
E&P stocks jump on takeover speculation; what are the implications? XTO Energy

Contrary to expectations for a "quiet coast into year-end," ExxonMobil surprised S&P 500 INDEX (Rebased)

Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m

the market by announcing a blockbuster all-stock acquisition of XTO Energy, Absolute 11.2 17.9 33.9
valuing the company at $41B including debt assumption (a 25% premium to S&P 500 INDEX 1.9 6.2 26.6
Friday's close). While E&P stocks traded substantially higher today in sympathy,
we harbor doubts as to whether this will spark an M&A "wave" in the sector, since Stock & option liquidity data
most of XOM's competition is not in a position to aggressively acquire. With XTO Market Cap (USD) 27,537.6
now trading modestly above our $48 3P NAV, our HOLD rating remains. Shares outstanding (m) 575.4
Free float (%) 100
Deal
75 positive for XTO shareholders; purchase price appears strong Volume (14 Dec 2009) 19,243,000
The
60 deal values XTO’s shares at $51.70, an 8% premium to our 3P net asset value Option volume (und. shrs., 1M avg.) 1,226,950

estimate
45 of $48. At $2.85/Mcfe on estimated 12/31/09 proved reserves, $13,909 Implied & Realized Volatility (3M)
per
30 flowing MMcfe/d, 7.2 times estimated 2010 EBITDAX and 8.1x estimated
2011
15
EBITDAX, the deal metrics appear favorable for XTO shareholders in our view 150%

(pre-deal
Dec 06 sector
Sep 07 comps:
M ay 08 $2.37/Mcfe,
Feb 09 Oct$11,600/MMcfed,
09 7.6x 2010E EBITDAX and 100%

6.0x 2011E EBITDAX). The deal is expected to be completed in mid-2010. 50%

XTO Energy S&P 500 INDEX (Rebased)
0%
Bearish for natgas--bullish for producers with low-cost resource potential Dec 06 Jun 07 Dec 07 Jun 08 Dec 08 Jun 09
While some would say XOM is implicitly making a bullish call on domestic natural Realized Vol Implied Vol (ATM)

gas, we think the reality may be quite the opposite. Exxon’s management was
clear today in stating this “is not a price play” as “we never do that.” Instead, we
would argue if any company has been right on calling the gas market over time, it
is XTO, who is at long last making the decision to exit (albeit for stock, not cash, --
though XOM shares are highly liquid). Exxon emphasized the deal is really
motivated by scale and resource growth upside—it pegs XTO’s total resource
potential at 45.1 Tcfe (compare to XTO’s proved reserves of ~14 Tcfe, and total
annual US consumption of ~23 Tcf). In our view, applying XOM’s capital to a
potential supply base of this size represents just one more supply factor
potentially “capping” gas prices over the longer-haul.
Who might be next
Among the potential targets, we highlight each of our five Buy-rated stocks as we
believe they offer standout resource upside and low asset intensity all at a
reasonable valuation: XCO, SWN, EOG, CHK and EQT. Others that also offer
strong gas-prone resource exposure include UPL, RRC, SD, DVN, ECA, NFX and
BBG (see group comparable charts and tables herein). We are quick to add that a
lack of ready mega-buyers—other than possibly BP, and/or XOM, who left the
door open for additional deals—may preclude a sector consolidation wave, as our
Integrated Oil colleagues suggest most of the majors either don’t want to acquire
or are not in a financial position to do so.
Valuation & risks
Our $47 target price on XTO is supported by our 2P NAV and a cash-flow based
target. Key upside risks would include emergence of a competitive bid (low-
probability in our view), and an increase in natural gas prices. Key downside risks:
antitrust or other issues preventing completion of the acquisition, and potential
weakness in XOM shares which represent the acquisition consideration.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
22
14 December 2009 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production XTO Energy

Model updated:13 November 2009 Fiscal year end 31-Dec 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Running the numbers Financial Summary
North America DB EPS (USD) 3.19 3.56 3.62 3.50 1.86 0.85
Reported EPS (USD) 3.88 3.47 3.56 3.38 1.86 0.85
United States DPS (USD) 0.24 0.42 0.48 0.50 0.52 0.52
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production BVPS (USD) 12.86 16.88 32.63 30.91 32.29 32.35

Valuation Metrics
Price/Sales (x) 3.5 4.0 3.6 3.1 3.4 3.6
XTO Energy P/E (DB) (x) 11.0 12.9 14.3 13.7 25.8 56.3
P/E (Reported) (x) 9.0 13.2 14.6 14.2 25.8 56.3
Reuters: XTO.N Bloomberg: XTO UN P/BV (x) 2.9 3.0 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.5

Hold FCF yield (%) nm nm nm 9.2 4.6 0.2

Dividend yield (%) 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1
Price (14 Dec 09) USD 47.86
EV/Sales 4.3 5.1 5.2 4.2 4.4 4.7
Target price USD 47.00 EV/EBITDA 5.6 6.8 7.0 5.5 6.3 7.2
52-week Range USD 29.19 - 47.86 EV/EBIT 7.6 9.8 11.3 10.3 15.8 27.7
Market Cap (m) USDm 27,538
EURm 18,792 Income Statement (USDm)
Sales 4,535 5,432 7,594 8,897 8,155 7,802
Company Profile EBITDA 3,483 4,123 5,636 6,830 5,727 5,071
XTO is an independent exploration and production company EBIT 2,570 2,862 3,492 3,628 2,285 1,320
that has employed a balanced strategy of growth via
Pre-tax profit 2,897 2,612 3,026 3,084 1,737 802
acquisitions and drilling. The company seeks to
opportunistically purchase "legacy" style growth assets within Net income 1,796 1,661 1,912 1,962 1,077 497
proven productive trends, and then aggressively exploits and
develops those properties post-purchase. XTO holds a
dominant position in many of the attractive resource plays in
Cash Flow (USDm)
North America, including exposure to tight gas, shale gas, Cash flow from operations 2,993 3,721 5,120 6,133 5,114 4,586
coal-bed methane, and secondary/tertiary oil recovery Net Capex -3,060 -7,110 -15,208 -3,600 -3,860 -4,542
projects. Free cash flow -67 -3,389 -10,088 2,533 1,254 44
Equity raised/(bought back) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid 0 0 0 0 0 0
Price Performance Net inc/(dec) in borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing/financing cash flows 70 3,413 10,159 -2,099 -288 -291
Net cash flow 3 24 71 434 966 -246
75
Change in working capital 0 0 0 0 0 0
60
45
30
Balance Sheet (USDm)
15
Cash and cash equivalents 5 0 25 392 1,358 1,112
Dec 06 Jun 07 Dec 07 Jun 08 Dec 08 Jun 09
Property, plant & equipment 10,824 17,200 31,281 31,725 32,222 33,109
XTO Energy S&P 500 INDEX (Rebased) Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other assets 2,056 1,722 6,948 4,243 4,243 4,243
Total assets 12,885 18,922 38,254 36,360 37,824 38,463
Margin Trends Debt 3,451 6,320 11,959 10,098 9,848 9,848
Other liabilities 3,569 4,661 8,948 8,475 9,388 9,809
90 Total liabilities 7,020 10,981 20,907 18,573 19,236 19,657
75 Total shareholders' equity 5,865 7,941 17,347 17,787 18,588 18,806
60
Net debt 3,446 6,320 11,934 9,706 8,490 8,736
45
30
15
06 07 08 09E 10E 11E
Key Company Metrics
Sales growth (%) 28.9 19.8 39.8 17.2 -8.3 -4.3
EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin
DB EPS growth (%) 25.6 11.5 1.9 -3.5 -46.8 -54.3

Payout ratio (%) 6.1 11.9 13.3 14.5 27.5 60.2

Growth & Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%) 76.8 75.9 74.2 76.8 70.2 65.0
EBIT Margin (%) 56.7 52.7 46.0 40.8 28.0 16.9
50 40
40
30 ROE (%) 35.7 24.1 15.1 11.2 5.9 2.7
30
20 20
10 Net debt/equity (%) 58.8 79.6 68.8 54.6 45.7 46.5
0 10
-10 Net interest cover (x) 14.3 11.4 7.2 6.9 4.2 2.5
-20 0
06 07 08 09E 10E 11E
DuPont Analysis
Sales growth (LHS)
EBIT margin (%) 56.7 52.7 46.0 40.8 28.0 16.9
x Asset turnover (x) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Solvency x Financial cost ratio (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6
x Tax and other effects (x) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
= ROA (post tax) (%) 15.8 10.4 6.7 5.3 2.9 1.3
100 15
80 x Financial leverage (x) 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0
10
60 = ROE (%) 35.7 24.1 15.1 11.2 5.9 2.7
40 5 annual growth (%) 5.4 -32.5 -37.2 -26.1 -47.0 -55.1
20
0 0 x NTA/share (avg) (x) 10.9 14.4 23.5 30.3 31.4 31.9
06 07 08 09E 10E 11E
= Reported EPS 3.88 3.47 3.56 3.38 1.86 0.85
Net debt/equity (LHS)
annual growth (%) 23.2 -10.5 2.4 -5.0 -45.0 -54.3

Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimates

Shannon Nome
+1 832 239-3144 shannon.nome@db.com

Page 2 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

23
14 December 2009 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production XTO Energy
Exxon aims to create a
premier, global
unconventional resource
organization
We believe the transaction
discounts $6-7/MMBtu long-
term natural gas pricing
Our top picks remain XCO,
EOG, and SWN, which offer
outsized, self-sustaining
growth at reasonable
valuations
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Deal recap
Supermajor Exxon Mobil got the week off to an exciting start with an announcement of plans
to acquire XTO Energy in an all-stock deal valued at $31 billion ($41B including debt
assumption). Exxon will exchange 0.7098 of its shares for each share of XTO common
outstanding, valuing the shares at $51.70 (using Friday closing prices). Principal conditions
prior to closing are XTO shareholder approval, and regulatory review and clearance, neither of
which we believe will prove problematic. This acquisition appears to be Exxon’s largest
acquisition since its takeover of Mobil in 1999. While the transaction itself came as a
surprise to most of the clients we spoke with today, few seemed surprised at Exxon’s choice
in targets—we have on past occasions even regarded XTO as “the Exxon of E&Ps.”
The fit here, thus, seems strong: the driving motivation for this transaction is Exxon’s desire
to create a premier, global unconventional resource organization. In XOM’s view and ours,
XTO’s resource base is high-quality, offering significant long-term growth potential, and the
ability to acquire XTO’s technical capabilities and operating organization serves as an added
attraction. In fact, one of the keys to success as we see it will be Exxon’s ability to retain
XTO’s staff, given what are likely vast differences in culture between the two organizations.
To that end, XOM plans to form a new division housing its new unconventional gas business,
based in XTO’s Fort Worth headquarters.
This transaction establishes or greatly strengthens XOM’s position in a collection of
important domestic shale plays (Barnett, Haynesville, Woodford, Fayetteville, Marcellus and
Bakken). In addition, the company noted it has shale and unconventional development
campaigns underway in numerous areas outside the U.S., and hopes the technology transfer
will benefit these efforts around the globe. While the transaction is, by Exxon’s admission,
dilutive to earnings, it appears to be production growth and cash flow accretive (for further
details on the Exxon side of the transaction, please see the note issued separately on XOM
by our integrated oils counterparts).
The deal metrics suggest XOM is paying up, albeit not an extreme premium in our
estimation. Our 3P NAV has been $48, and while XOM’s announced acquisition price was a
few dollars above that level, the decline in shares today brings the equivalent offer price
down in line with our NAV. In addition to the deal metrics reviewed on page one, we
calculate that the acquisition will require $6-7/MMBtu long-term natural gas pricing in order to
meet Exxon’s hurdle rate, given its lower cost of capital vis-à-vis that which is incorporated
within our XTO NAV (~8% vs ~10% for XTO).
On that note, we noted that several smaller-cap producers actually outperformed the larger
caps today, even though they are not as directly comparable to XTO, and think an implicit
“cost of capital” trade was at work. Among producers with large apparent resource potential
that could benefit from a larger entity’s lower cost of capital are companies like RRC, KWK,
SWN, CHK, EOG, EQT, and XCO—most of which posted top-quintile outperformance today.
Among these, we believe Buy-rated XCO, EOG, and SWN are most attractively valued from
an NAV and cash flow per debt-adjusted share standpoint currently, and offer the most self-
sustaining multi-year growth characteristics as compared to our other covered companies.
XTO vs. its peers: a graphical analysis
In order to help investors quickly assess the differences and similarities between XTO and its
closest peers, we present the following charts (and the sector compsheets at the end of this
report). We found it interesting that while XTO ranks well on most of these parameters, it is
not necessarily “top three” ranked on any one parameter save total reserves. We believe the
most desirable consolidation candidates from the perspective of a major oil company buyer
Page 3
24
14 December 2009 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production XTO Energy

must not only offer asset quality and strong upside potential, but a measure of size and
critical mass so as to be impactful to a major’s large base of assets.

Figure 1: Valuation: EV / 2011E debt-adjusted cash flow

40.9
16.0

14.0

12.0

10.1
9.8
9.8
9.7
EV/ 2011EDACF

9.1
10.0

8.6
6.9
8.0

6.8
6.6
6.3
6.2
6.1
5.9
5.9
5.7
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.0
4.9
6.0

4.9
4.5
4.0

2.0

-
R

G
L

L
C

C
TR

P
N

N
T

T
N

G
A

X
SD

M WK
K
O

D
UP

NB
FS
CL

EC
AP

AP
RR
EQ

GD

NF
DV
CH

IA

XC
EO
PX

BB
SW
XT
DP

ED
K
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates. Note: our 2011 estimates incorporate $6/MMbtu natural gas and $80/Bbl oil.

XTO is not one of the cheapest stocks in our coverage universe looking out to 2011 numbers,
but trades at what we consider a justifiable premium given its growth and asset quality.

Figure 2: 2011E ROCE

25%
21%
19%

20%
17%
16%
15%
14%

15%
12%
12%
11%
10%
9%
9%
2011EROCE

9%

10%
8%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%

5%
3%
3%

0%
E
R
L

L
G

TR

P
N

A
T
N

ER T
O

G
A

X
SD

O
D
AG

-2%
UP

NB

AV FS
CL

EC
AP

AP
RR
EQ

GD
NF
DV

KW
XC

CH
EO

PX

BB
SW

XT

DP

-5%
-5%

-10%

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates. Note: our 2011 estimates incorporate $6/MMbtu natural gas and $80/Bbl oil.

Underscoring the growth- and long-term resource-driven motives of the transaction, XTO’s
weak ROCE profile (particularly looking out to 2011 when the majority of its high-priced
hedges roll off) was no deterrent to traditionally returns-focused ExxonMobil, who
acknowledged that the transaction is earnings-dilutive.

Page 4 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

25
14 December 2009 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production XTO Energy

Figure 3: Natural gas as % of 2010E production mix

120%

100%
99%
98%
96%
96%
95%
95%
93%
100%

86%
85%
82%
80%
Gas as % of 2010Eprod mix

76%
76%
74%
80%

68%
66%
59%
59%
50%
60%

40%

29%
23%
22%
20%

0%

R
G
L

L
C

C
P

TR
N

N
T

T
O
G

A
K
AV SD
K

D
AG
UP

NB
FS

CL
EC

AP

AP
RR
EQ
GD

NF
DV
KW
XC

CH

EO
BB

PX
SW

XT
DP

ER
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates

XTO’s gas/oil mix is heavily gas-weighted, although about in line with the median of the peer
group based on our projections for 2010. We do not think XOM was seeking gas exposure
per se, or making a bullish “gas price call” in targeting XTO.

Figure 4: 2010E hedging position

80%
69%
67%
64%

70%
61%
59%
58%
57%
57%
54%

60%
49%
2010E% hedged

50%
40%
38%
36%
36%
36%
35%

40%
26%

30%
22%
21%
17%

20%
13%
8%

10%
1%

0%
E

R
G
L

L
C

TR

N
AV ECA

T
T
O

G
X

A
SD

K
O
D

AG
UP

NB
FS

CL
AP

AP
RR

EQ

GD
NF

DV
KW
XC

CH

EO
PX

BB

SW
XT
DP

ER

Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimates

XTO is one of the better-hedged large-cap producers, as 54% of its estimated 2010
production is swapped at an average of $9.62/Mcfe. In 2011, this falls to 7% hedged at
$7.02/Mcfe. While we don’t believe its 2010 hedges were a major consideration for long-
term oriented ExxonMobil (who demurred on questions as to its plans for XTO’s hedge
book), since the transaction won’t likely close until Q2-2010, we think most of the hedges will
likely remain in place.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 5

26
14 December 2009 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production XTO Energy

Figure 5: Risked 3P to 1P ratio

18.0

16.0
16.0

14.0

12.0

10.2
Risked 3P:1P ratio

9.6
10.0

8.3
7.6
7.0
8.0

5.8
5.0
6.0

4.3
4.0
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.2
4.0

2.7
2.6
2.3
2.2
1.6
1.3
2.0

G
L

L
C

TR
N

A
N
T

T
O

G
M FX

A
K

SD
K

D
UP

NB
FS
CL

EC
AP

AP
RR
EQ

GD

DV

KW
CH
XC

IA

EO
BB

PX
SW

XT

DP
N
ED
Source: Company data and Deutsche Bank estimates

XTO’s 3P:1P ratio is below the peer median, but not out of line with several of its larger-cap
peers in the 2.5-3.5 range; more importantly however...

Figure 6: Estimated proved reserves at year-end 2009

14,720
14,386
14,365

16,000
13,708
13,382
12,961

14,000
12/ 31/ 09Eproved reserves (1P)

12,000
9,235

10,000

8,000
5,648
5,276

6,000
3,825
3,551
3,235
2,814
2,803
2,791
2,224
2,208

4,000
1,439
1,001
892
863

2,000
446

-
R
G

L
L
C

TR
N

P
A
N

T
O

G
A

X
SD

K
K
O

D
NB
UP

FS

CL
EC
AP

AP

RR
EQ

GD
NF
DV

KW
CH

XC
EO
PX

BB
SW
XT

DP

Source: Deutsche Bank

…we believe the absolute size of its reserve base and 3P resource potential is likely what
attracted XOM.

Page 6 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

27
14 December 2009 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production XTO Energy

Figure 7: 2010E asset intensity (maintenance capex as a % of cash flow)

100%

89%
87%
90%

80%
80%

67%
64%
63%
63%
70%

60%
2010Easset intensity

54%
54%
52%
52%
60%

50%
49%
46%
44%
43%
50%

40%
38%
37%
34%
33%
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

G
L

L
C

C
P
N

A
N
T

T
O

N
G

A
K
SD

K
O

M XD
UP

NB
FS
CL

EC

AP

AP
RR
EQ

GD
NF

DV
IA
KW
XC

CH

EO
BB
SW

XT

P
ED
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates

Low asset intensity (low maintenance capex requirements as a percentage of total cash flow)
was always a hallmark of XTO’s.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 7

28
14 December 2009 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production XTO Energy

Figure 8: E&P compsheets, part I of II

STOCK DATA
12/14/09 12-mo Mkt E nterpr 52-W eek C urrP x P erfo rmance
T icker R ating P rice T arg et T R P otential C ap $B V al $B Hig h L ow / Hig h 2006 2007 2008 2009 T D T r 3 Mos T r Month
A nadarko A PC Hold 60.56 66 10% 28.3 38.1 69 29 87% -8% 51% -41% 57% 5% -3%
A pache A PA Hold 98.50 100 2% 33.2 35.6 106 51 93% -3% 62% -31% 32% 8% 0%
Bill Barrett C orp. BBG Hold 29.52 34 15% 1.3 1.7 38 15 78% -29% 54% -50% 40% -9% -3%
C hesapeake E nergy C HK Buy 24.37 33 37% 13.7 27.8 30 10 81% -8% 35% -59% 51% -10% -3%
C ontinental R esources CLR Hold 39.38 35 -11% 6.7 7.0 47 12 83% NA 74% -21% 90% -7% 6%
Delta P etroleum DP T R Sell 0.90 1.00 11% 0.1 1.0 6 1 15% 6% -19% -75% -81% -76% 1%
Devon E nergy DV N Hold 66.80 80 21% 29.9 34.8 73 39 91% 7% 33% -26% 2% 1% -1%
E nC ana C orp. ECA Hold 31.55 31 3% 23.7 34.6 62 27 51% 2% 48% -32% -32% -50% -46%
E O G R esources EO G Buy 90.39 115 28% 22.6 23.9 96 45 94% -15% 43% -25% 36% 17% 2%
E Q T C orp. EQT Buy 43.41 54 26% 5.6 7.2 47 25 93% 14% 28% -37% 29% 2% 2%
E X C O R esources XCO Buy 20.51 25 22% 4.2 5.7 21 4 98% 21% -8% -41% 126% 23% 24%
F orest O il FST Hold 21.28 23 8% 1.9 4.7 25 10 85% 6% 56% -68% 29% 18% 7%
G oodrich Petroleum G DP Hold 22.42 28 26% 0.8 1.0 37 15 61% 44% -37% 32% -25% -10% -1%
Newfield E xploration NF X Hold 44.42 41 -8% 5.8 7.5 50 15 88% -8% 15% -63% 125% 1% 1%
Noble E nergy NB L Hold 69.48 66 -4% 12.1 12.8 74 37 94% 22% 62% -38% 41% 4% 5%
P ioneer Natural R es. PXD Hold 43.03 37 -14% 5.1 7.6 46 12 93% -23% 23% -67% 166% 26% 1%
Q uicksilver R es. KW K Hold 14.28 15 5% 2.5 4.8 17 4 86% -13% 63% -81% 156% 14% 6%
R ange R esources RRC Hold 47.29 48 2% 7.4 8.6 60 28 79% 4% 87% -33% 38% -6% -2%
Sand R idge E nergy SD Hold 8.81 12 36% 1.4 3.9 15 4 59% NA 38% -83% 43% -36% -11%
Southwestern E nergy SW N Buy 44.46 56 26% 15.4 15.3 51 23 88% -2% 59% 4% 53% 6% 5%
U ltra P etroleum UPL Hold 48.34 57 18% 7.6 7.8 57 29 84% -14% 50% -52% 40% -1% 5%
X T O E nergy XTO Hold 47.86 47 -1% 25.7 34.4 46 26 103% 7% 36% -31% 36% 18% 11%
G RO U P ME DIA N 10% 87% 0% 45% -40% 40% 1% 1%

ESTIMATES & MULTIPLES

DA C F /shr E V /DA C F (unhedg ed) C F PS P /C F EPS P/E E V /MMcfed
09E 10E 11E 10E 11E 09E 10E 11E 09E 10E 11E 09E 10E 11E 10E 09E
A nadarko 9.12 9.60 12.55 8.8 6.6 7.52 8.60 11.61 8.1 7.0 5.2 (1.23) 0.19 2.01 NMF 10.72
A pache 15.71 17.01 20.53 6.2 5.2 14.97 16.34 19.89 6.6 6.0 5.0 5.75 7.52 10.38 13.1 10.42
Bill Barrett C orp. 9.91 9.45 8.48 5.1 4.5 9.13 8.67 7.69 3.2 3.4 3.8 1.70 1.44 0.47 20.5 6.95
C hesapeake E nergy 7.62 6.80 6.22 6.3 6.8 6.37 5.50 5.08 3.8 4.4 4.8 2.41 2.29 1.83 10.7 10.84
C ontinental R esources 2.71 3.39 4.38 12.8 9.7 2.59 3.19 4.17 15.2 12.3 9.5 0.70 1.11 1.62 35.5 32.05
Delta P etroleum 0.13 0.18 0.17 21.6 40.9 (0.10) 0.10 0.06 NMF 9.0 15.0 (0.89) (0.26) (0.17) NMF 16.46
Devon E nergy 11.66 12.71 14.20 5.9 5.0 10.78 11.96 13.58 6.2 5.6 4.9 3.80 5.49 6.74 12.2 9.60
E nC ana C orp. 11.50 6.79 7.19 5.2 5.1 10.80 6.23 6.62 2.9 5.1 4.8 4.71 1.64 1.87 19.2 10.54
E O G R esources 13.09 14.58 18.60 6.6 5.1 12.77 13.96 18.05 7.1 6.5 5.0 3.01 3.30 6.22 27.4 11.60
E Q T C orp. 4.60 6.00 6.09 9.8 9.8 3.83 4.87 5.00 11.3 8.9 8.7 1.46 1.99 2.05 21.8 18.49
E X C O R esources 3.57 3.26 4.50 8.4 4.9 2.85 2.70 3.83 7.2 7.6 5.4 0.87 1.01 1.42 20.3 17.65
F orest O il 7.20 6.16 6.46 5.7 5.7 5.97 4.75 5.16 3.6 4.5 4.1 1.85 1.48 1.81 14.4 8.82
G oodrich Petroleum 4.24 3.54 5.09 8.2 6.1 3.44 2.74 4.24 6.5 8.2 5.3 (0.92) (1.78) (1.77) NMF 12.55
Newfield E xploration 13.00 10.79 10.95 6.1 4.9 12.07 9.89 10.12 3.7 4.5 4.4 5.04 4.10 4.23 10.8 11.33
Noble E nergy 10.37 10.62 12.93 7.0 5.9 9.52 9.82 12.19 7.3 7.1 5.7 3.27 3.29 5.26 21.1 10.48
P ioneer Natural R es. 7.02 9.22 11.36 7.7 5.9 4.92 7.97 10.11 8.8 5.4 4.3 (0.21) 1.03 1.71 41.6 11.15
Q uicksilver R es. 3.57 3.76 4.19 8.0 6.3 2.47 2.75 3.18 5.8 5.2 4.5 0.87 0.89 1.05 16.1 15.70
R ange R esources 4.95 4.90 5.81 11.6 9.8 4.19 4.11 5.05 11.3 11.5 9.4 0.93 0.70 1.06 NMF 21.28
Sand R idge E nergy 3.22 2.76 2.76 8.5 9.1 2.19 1.86 1.82 4.0 4.7 4.9 0.83 0.85 0.63 10.3 14.08
Southwestern E nergy 4.21 4.88 5.35 10.1 8.6 4.04 4.67 5.15 11.0 9.5 8.6 1.50 1.98 2.16 22.5 19.81
U ltra P etroleum 4.37 5.25 5.78 10.4 10.1 4.08 4.95 5.44 11.8 9.8 8.9 1.80 2.35 2.56 20.6 16.32
X T O E nergy 11.28 9.72 8.71 7.5 6.9 10.45 8.82 7.83 4.6 5.4 6.1 3.50 1.86 0.85 25.8 13.45
G RO U P ME DIA N 7.9 6.2 5.3 6.6 6.3 20.4 12.07

CAPITAL SPENDING, ASSET INTENSITY & FREE CASH FLOW

A sset Intensity C F /DA S 5Y A V G E &D C apex F C F (C F - C A P E X ) RO C E
09E 10E 11E 10E 11E P :C F /DA S 08 09E 10E 09E 10E 11E 08 09E 10E 11E
A nadarko 101% 87% 70% 7.41 9.67 5.9 4,561 3,780 4,050 (578) (216) 519 9% 0% 1% 4%
A pache 73% 64% 56% 15.67 19.07 5.0 5,425 3,654 4,550 993 570 389 19% 9% 12% 15%
Bill Barrett C orp. 55% 54% 66% 7.65 6.81 6.3 542 350 366 1 9 (34) 10% 6% 6% 3%
C hesapeake E nergy 48% 50% 78% 4.19 3.79 5.1 5,797 3,200 4,700 (2,308) (3,046) (2,082) 9% 6% 6% 5%
C ontinental R esources 51% 46% 38% 3.17 4.09 7.2 676 350 563 24 (97) 76 31% 9% 12% 16%
Delta P etroleum NMF NMF NMF 0.07 0.07 16.0 508 56 55 (93) (27) (38) 0% -10% -5% -2%
Devon E nergy 75% 60% 51% 11.54 13.29 5.0 7,464 3,950 6,300 (277) (1,752) 934 18% 9% 12% 14%
E nC ana C orp. 47% 63% 61% 5.89 6.21 6.1 6,818 4,450 3,800 2,318 789 780 16% 12% 5% 5%
E O G R esources 62% 63% 51% 13.25 17.03 5.8 4,804 3,100 3,300 (508) (327) 600 20% 7% 7% 12%
E Q T C orp. 55% 37% 32% 4.38 4.44 18.0 615 600 565 (497) (209) (196) 10% 7% 8% 8%
E X C O R esources 37% 33% 36% 2.69 3.82 6.4 693 462 297 62 104 128 7% 9% 15% 19%
F orest O il 74% 80% 68% 3.60 3.81 4.9 1,356 450 600 100 (115) (115) 11% 7% 8% 9%
G oodrich Petroleum 64% 89% 76% 2.71 3.69 11.7 346 195 195 (92) (117) (177) 1% -2% -5% -5%
Newfield E xploration 40% 49% 49% 8.16 8.36 4.9 1,935 1,350 1,175 144 57 15 9% 14% 12% 11%
Noble E nergy 70% 67% 55% 9.40 11.20 4.9 1,727 1,400 2,200 267 (466) 112 17% 6% 7% 10%
P ioneer Natural R es. 94% 52% 49% 6.08 7.53 5.9 1,323 300 850 260 57 101 7% 2% 3% 4%
Q uicksilver R es. 41% 40% 42% 1.91 2.15 14.0 982 400 390 (112) 39 (12) 10% 8% 9% 9%
R ange R esources 53% 54% 50% 4.11 4.86 8.4 915 540 600 (77) (36) (26) 10% 5% 5% 6%
Sand R idge E nergy 42% 43% 53% 1.31 1.26 10.5 1,408 450 715 (329) (371) (140) 8% 12% 15% 12%
Southwestern E nergy 36% 34% 35% 4.58 4.99 10.8 1,462 1,200 1,285 (400) (142) (55) 19% 16% 19% 17%
U ltra P etroleum 40% 38% 39% 4.80 5.23 16.7 950 680 700 (114) (50) (125) 30% 20% 25% 21%
X T O E nergy 35% 44% 53% 7.26 6.61 6.4 3,872 3,100 3,410 2,466 1,254 44 10% 8% 5% 3%
G RO U P ME DIA N 53% 52% 51% 6.3 -37% 20% 10% 8% 8% 9%
* E Q T 's maintenance capex and asset intensity relate strictly to the E &P segment.

Source: Company data, Capital IQ, Deutsche Bank estimates

Page 8 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

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14 December 2009 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production XTO Energy

Figure 9: E&P compsheets, part II of II

PRODUCTION & COMMODITY SENSITIVITIES

P roductio n, MMcfed % G row th E x it rate g row th % N.A . Nat G as 2010E C F Sensitiv ity* % Hedg ed
09E 10E 11E 08 09E 10E 11E 09E 10E 08 09E 10E $.10/Mmbtu $1/B bl 2010E 2011E
A nadarko 3,638 3,710 3,920 -2% 8% 2% 6% 4% 5% 61% 61% 59% 1.2% 1.1% 67% 15%
A pache 3,502 3,672 3,907 -5% 9% 5% 6% 14% 5% 32% 29% 23% 0.8% 1.6% 17% 5%
Bill Barrett C orp. 244 257 277 26% 15% 5% 8% 8% 10% 95% 95% 95% 2.2% 0.2% 57% 29%
C hesapeake E nergy 2,450 2,675 2,859 18% 6% 9% 7% 8% 12% 92% 92% 93% 2.6% 0.3% 26% 4%
C ontinental R esources 224 247 273 13% 13% 11% 10% 4% 14% 20% 22% 22% 0.4% 2.1% 8% 0%
Delta P etroleum 60 53 50 51% -12% -12% -5% -31% 7% 76% 79% 86% NMF NMF 61% 36%
Devon E nergy 3,626 3,604 3,914 2% 7% -1% 9% -3% -6% 66% 65% 66% 1.5% 0.8% 36% 0%
E nC ana C orp. 2,975 3,238 3,303 6% 9% 9% 2% -10% -12% 86% 86% 95% 2.4% 0.0% 40% 0%
E O G R esources 2,119 2,384 2,693 15% 7% 13% 13% 1% 19% 70% 64% 59% 1.7% 0.8% 1% 0%
E Q T C orp. 287 335 389 9% 16% 17% 16% 13% 15% 99% 99% 99% 1.9% 0.0% 35% 25%
E X C O R esources 349 327 497 18% -12% -6% 52% -39% 57% 91% 93% 96% 2.2% 0.1% 59% 11%
F orest O il 505 489 513 22% -3% -3% 5% -17% 7% 75% 77% 80% 2.6% 0.5% 36% 0%
G oodrich Petroleum 81 97 133 51% 23% 19% 38% 19% 23% 96% 97% 98% 3.5% 0.1% 21% 8%
Newfield E xploration 703 767 851 -4% 9% 9% 11% 2% 17% 74% 69% 68% 1.4% 1.0% 58% 21%
Noble E nergy 1,275 1,269 1,300 8% -1% 0% 2% 4% 5% 31% 31% 29% 1.2% 1.3% 22% 7%
P ioneer Natural R es. 693 711 779 11% 2% 3% 10% -9% 17% 54% 51% 50% 1.3% 1.2% 64% 51%
Q uicksilver R es. 327 394 470 23% 24% 21% 19% 2% 33% 71% 72% 76% 2.2% 0.1% 57% 33%
R ange R esources 436 521 609 18% 14% 19% 17% 19% 20% 81% 83% 85% 2.4% 0.3% 36% 0%
Sand R idge E nergy 290 360 442 58% 5% 24% 23% -9% 45% 86% 84% 76% 2.0% 1.1% 69% 1%
Southwestern E nergy 820 1,062 1,274 71% 54% 30% 20% 52% 19% 99% 100% 100% 2.2% 0.0% 13% 4%
U ltra P etroleum 490 552 624 19% 23% 13% 13% 14% 15% 95% 96% 96% 2.5% 0.2% 49% 32%
X T O E nergy 2,869 3,091 3,338 28% 23% 8% 8% 10% 10% 82% 82% 82% 1.6% 0.4% 54% 7%
G RO U P ME DIA N/W td A v g /A v g . 27,964 29,818 8% 8% 7% 9% 3% 15% 74% 74% 74% 1.9% 0.6% 37% 8%
* Note: S ensitivities shown are before hedging effects.
RESERVES, NAV, & PRICE DISCOUNTED
1P R srv s, Y -E , B cfe % PU D R/P % Nat G as P 1 NA V P remium 2P NA V P remium 09E E V /08E Mcfe (risked) P x Discounted ($/Mcfe)
08 09E 08 08/09E 09E 3P /1P ratio ($7/$70) (Discount) ($7/$70) (Discount) 1P 2P 3P 1P 2P 3P
A nadarko 13,661 13,708 30% 11.9 58% 3.5 $ 28 117% $ 62 -2% 2.86 1.09 0.82 13.41 8.86 7.85
A pache 14,404 14,386 28% 11.3 33% 2.7 $ 67 46% $ 89 11% 2.53 1.30 0.95 13.82 10.99 9.48
Bill Barrett C orp. 818 892 47% 9.2 96% 3.3 $ 23 26% $ 30 -2% 2.08 0.93 0.63 7.39 6.33 5.67
C hesapeake E nergy 12,052 13,382 33% 13.5 94% 8.3 $ 14 76% $ 42 -42% 2.20 0.40 0.27 8.52 4.98 3.99
C ontinental R esources 956 1,001 25% 12.1 23% 5.8 $ 11 261% $ 33 20% 7.50 1.50 1.30 23.11 10.49 9.76
Delta P etroleum 884 863 80% 40.5 94% 1.6 $ 1 -12% $ 2 -42% 1.11 0.72 0.72 7.72 7.38 7.38
Devon E nergy 14,571 14,720 20% 9.7 68% 5.0 $ 48 41% $ 82 -18% 2.39 0.72 0.48 11.08 7.41 6.32
E nC ana C orp. 19,712 12,961 45% 12.9 70% 3.5 $ 24 33% $ 30 4% 1.59 1.31 0.45 9.57 8.60 7.34
E O G R esources 8,689 9,235 24% 11.2 71% 2.3 $ 82 10% $ 109 -17% 2.83 1.22 1.20 8.26 6.89 6.77
E Q T C orp. 3,110 3,551 39% 29.7 100% 9.6 $ 22 95% $ 56 -22% 1.71 0.40 0.25 9.32 6.32 5.54
E X C O R esources 1,940 1,439 26% 15.2 94% 7.6 $ 10 112% $ 28 -26% 3.18 0.79 0.42 10.74 6.38 5.64
F orest O il 2,668 2,208 37% 14.1 75% 3.2 $ 13 61% $ 22 -2% 1.67 0.87 0.52 11.89 8.10 5.73
G oodrich Petroleum 402 446 62% 13.6 97% 7.0 $ 2 NMF $ 23 -3% 2.53 0.36 0.36 10.69 7.06 7.06
Newfield E xploration 2,951 3,235 38% 11.5 71% 3.6 $ 24 85% $ 53 -17% 2.70 0.79 0.74 11.71 7.52 7.35
Noble E nergy 5,182 5,276 31% 11.1 36% 3.3 $ 45 54% $ 60 16% 2.58 1.10 0.79 13.96 11.16 9.87
P ioneer Natural R es. 5,757 5,648 42% 22.8 51% 1.3 $ 33 29% $ 36 18% 1.34 1.17 0.99 10.36 9.99 9.86
Q uicksilver R es. 2,208 2,224 37% 16.1 74% 4.0 $ 6 157% $ 14 2% 2.33 1.01 0.58 11.14 8.26 7.12
R ange R esources 2,654 2,803 38% 16.7 83% 10.2 $ 13 268% $ 44 8% 3.50 0.45 0.34 15.87 8.13 6.83
Sand R idge E nergy 2,159 2,814 56% 20.4 88% 2.2 $ 6 56% $ 12 -27% 1.89 0.76 0.85 8.63 6.77 6.30
Southwestern E nergy 2,185 2,791 38% 7.3 96% 16.0 $ 10 339% $ 47 -6% 7.43 0.47 0.47 17.01 6.23 6.22
U ltra P etroleum 3,518 3,825 58% 20.5 95% 4.3 $ 24 100% $ 47 2% 2.27 0.54 0.53 9.75 6.22 6.10
X T O E nergy 13,863 14,365 34% 13.2 84% 2.6 $ 27 81% $ 47 2% 2.78 1.11 1.08 10.23 7.93 7.88
G RO U P ME DIA N 38% 13.3 79% 3.6 76% -2% 2.46 0.83 0.60 10.71 7.47 6.94
Note: E Q T 's E V /Mcfe valuations relate strictly to the E &P segment; NA V for non-E &P businesses have been stripped out of the E V figure.

CAPITALIZATION
W .A . shs out, MM Y E shs out, MM Net Debt @ Y E , $MM E V , $MM 2009E net debt to:
08 09E 10E 08 09E 10E 08 09E 10E 11E 09E 10E 11E Mkt cap B ook cap E B IT DA X
A nadarko 467 482 498 460 495 500 9,979 9,702 10,218 10,000 39,012 40,139 37,966 34% 33% 2.0
A pache 337 337 338 337 338 338 3,628 2,982 2,618 2,444 36,505 36,080 35,724 9% 16% 0.5
Bill Barrett C orp. 45 45 46 45 45 46 339 400 391 441 1,698 1,740 1,734 30% 28% 0.9
C hesapeake E nergy 564 625 637 590 631 638 11,426 11,216 12,241 12,223 26,545 27,262 26,610 82% 46% 2.6
C ontinental R esources 169 169 170 169 170 171 502 492 588 513 7,169 7,250 7,215 7% 32% 1.0
Delta P etroleum 96 212 277 101 276 279 888 700 635 563 985 917 690 807% 49% 25.5
Devon E nergy 447 445 447 444 446 451 5,282 4,945 1,484 2,939 34,829 33,097 31,871 17% 25% 1.0
E nC ana C orp. 752 752 753 751 752 755 8,372 6,939 7,056 7,533 31,368 30,748 30,998 29% 21% 0.7
E O G R esources 250 251 252 250 252 252 1,516 2,176 2,337 1,858 24,574 25,073 24,710 10% 18% 0.6
E Q T C orp. 128 131 132 131 132 132 1,569 2,002 2,327 2,317 7,494 7,882 8,022 36% 49% 3.4
E X C O R esources 206 213 192 211 215 216 2,830 766 660 530 6,160 4,660 4,922 18% 54% 1.1
F orest O il 90 105 112 95 111 116 2,784 1,657 1,770 1,885 4,452 4,107 3,856 86% 61% 2.1
G oodrich Petroleum 35 36 36 36 36 37 157 269 386 421 1,018 1,137 1,208 34% 31% 1.9
Newfield E xploration 130 132 135 130 133 139 2,189 2,007 1,949 1,934 7,965 7,959 7,699 35% 42% 1.1
Noble E nergy 175 175 177 175 175 177 1,101 1,278 1,870 1,885 13,356 13,839 14,037 11% 17% 0.7
P ioneer Natural R es. 118 114 114 115 114 114 2,916 2,745 2,619 2,678 7,727 7,579 7,576 54% 45% 3.3
Q uicksilver R es. 173 178 182 178 180 183 2,630 2,571 2,441 2,587 5,135 5,101 5,055 104% 80% 4.5
R ange R esources 156 159 162 158 160 163 1,740 1,836 1,898 1,949 9,285 9,509 9,372 25% 43% 2.5
Sand R idge E nergy 155 183 263 163 217 264 2,405 2,529 2,900 3,040 4,081 5,027 4,407 185% 98% 4.3
Southwestern E nergy 347 348 355 346 351 358 578 968 1,110 1,178 16,236 16,825 16,542 6% 29% 0.7
U ltra P etroleum 157 152 151 154 151 151 553 738 788 913 7,995 8,083 8,288 10% 54% 1.1
X T O E nergy 538 580 580 577 580 580 11,934 9,706 8,490 8,736 38,600 36,837 36,209 38% 35% 1.4
G RO U P ME DIA N 32% 38% 1.3

PRICE DECK
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q 1-09 Q 2-09 Q 3-09 Q 4-09E 2009E 2010E
W T I Spot C rude, $/Bbl 19.27 30.36 26.00 26.10 31.00 41.49 56.54 66.24 72.23 99.66 43.72 61.00 68.50 75.00 61.88 65.00
C onsensus 70.31 60.16 74.09
Hub Nat G as, $/MMBtu 2.27 4.23 4.07 3.33 5.63 5.93 8.84 6.98 7.12 8.88 4.51 3.80 3.40 4.75 4.11 6.00
C onsensus 4.77 4.13 5.94

Source: Company data, Capital IQ, Deutsche Bank estimates

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 9

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14 December 2009 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production XTO Energy

Appendix 1
Important Disclosures
Additional information available upon request
Disclosure checklist
Company Ticker Recent price* Disclosure
XTO Energy XTO.N 47.86 (USD) 14 Dec 09 1,2,6,7,8,14,15,17
ExxonMobil XOM.N 69.69 (USD) 14 Dec 09 2,7,8,14,15,17
*Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies.

Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators

Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States. See
“Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators” and Explanatory Notes.
1. Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public or private offering for this
company, for which it received fees.

2. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) makes a market in securities issued by this company.

6. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of any class of common equity securities of this company
calculated under computational methods required by US law.

7. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment
banking or financial advisory services within the past year.

8. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services
from this company in the next three months.

14. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received non-investment banking related compensation from this company within
the past year.

15. This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year, during which time it received non-
investment banking securities-related services.

Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. Regulators

Please also refer to disclosures in the “Important Disclosures Required by US Regulators” and the Explanatory Notes.
1. Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public or private offering for this
company, for which it received fees.

2. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) makes a market in securities issued by this company.

6. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of any class of common equity securities of this company
calculated under computational methods required by US law.

7. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment
banking or financial advisory services within the past year.

17. Deutsche Bank and or/its affiliate(s) has a significant Non-Equity financial interest (this can include Bonds, Convertible
Bonds, Credit Derivatives and Traded Loans) where the aggregate net exposure to the following issuer(s), or issuer(s)
group, is more than 25m Euros.

For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this
research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our
website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/Disclosure.eqsr?ricCode=XTO.N.

Page 10 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

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14 December 2009 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production XTO Energy

Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s) about the subject
issuer and the securities of the issuer. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any
compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Shannon Nome

Historical recommendations and target price: XTO Energy (XTO.N)

(as of 12/14/2009)
80.00 Previous Recommendations
4
3
13 Strong Buy
70.00 6 11 12
2 3 45 10 Buy
2 Market Perform
60.00 8 9 5 Underperform
7 Not Rated
11 14 Suspended Rating
50.00 10
S ecurity Price

21 Current Recommendations
923 24
19 8 22
40.00 1517 Buy
20
16 18 Hold
6 7 Sell
30.00 Not Rated
Suspended Rating
20.00 *New Recommendation Structure
as of September 9, 2002
10.00

0.00
Dec 06 Mar 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 Jun 08 Sep 08 Dec 08 Mar 09 Jun 09 Sep 09
Da te
1. 1/23/2007: Buy, Target Price Change USD57.00 13. 6/27/2008: Buy, Target Price Change USD79.00
2. 6/8/2007: Buy, Target Price Change USD65.00 14. 9/29/2008: Buy, Target Price Change USD63.00
3. 7/17/2007: Buy, Target Price Change USD72.00 15. 10/7/2008: Buy, Target Price Change USD60.00
4. 10/3/2007: Buy, Target Price Change USD75.00 16. 10/20/2008: Buy, Target Price Change USD51.00
5. 10/23/2007: Buy, Target Price Change USD76.00 17. 11/5/2008: Buy, Target Price Change USD50.00
6. 11/16/2007: Buy, Target Price Change USD77.00 18. 12/7/2008: Buy, Target Price Change USD49.00
7. 12/18/2007: Buy, Target Price Change USD61.00 19. 1/9/2009: Buy, Target Price Change USD45.00
8. 1/11/2008: Buy, Target Price Change USD64.00 20. 3/27/2009: Buy, Target Price Change USD43.00
9. 2/12/2008: Buy, Target Price Change USD67.00 21. 5/7/2009: Buy, Target Price Change USD47.00
10. 4/7/2008: Buy, Target Price Change USD70.00 22. 6/30/2009: Buy, Target Price Change USD48.00
11. 4/9/2008: Buy, Target Price Change USD74.00 23. 10/1/2009: Downgrade to Hold, Target Price Change USD45.00
12. 6/1/2008: Buy, Target Price Change USD75.00 24. 11/5/2009: Hold, Target Price Change USD47.00

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 11

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14 December 2009 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production XTO Energy

Historical recommendations and target price: ExxonMobil (XOM.N)

(as of 12/14/2009)
USD100.00 45 3
4
3 76 11 12413
10
Previous Recommendations
8
USD90.00 2
5 9 27 5 Strong Buy
3 9
14 11 8 Buy
11 1517 19 Market Perform
USD80.00 1 1024
2 10 7 12 20 21 22 9 Underperform
23
USD70.00 6 Not Rated
Suspended Rating
S ecurity Price

USD60.00 Current Recommendations

USD50.00 Buy
Hold
USD40.00 Sell
Not Rated
Suspended Rating
USD30.00
*New Recommendation Structure
USD20.00 as of September 9, 2002

USD10.00

USD-
Dec 06 Mar 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 Jun 08 Sep 08 Dec 08 Mar 09 Jun 09 Sep 09
Da te
1. 1/3/2007: Buy, Target Price Change USD85.00 7. 3/28/2008: Hold, Target Price Change USD104.00
2. 3/6/2007: Buy, Target Price Change USD80.00 8. 6/27/2008: Hold, Target Price Change USD113.00
3. 4/23/2007: Downgrade to Hold, USD80.00 9. 9/28/2008: Hold, Target Price Change USD93.00
4. 7/16/2007: Hold, Target Price Change USD95.00 10. 10/20/2008: Hold, Target Price Change USD64.00
5. 11/16/2007: Hold, Target Price Change USD98.00 11. 12/8/2008: Hold, Target Price Change USD70.00
6. 1/11/2008: Hold, Target Price Change USD100.00 12. 2/23/2009: Upgrade to Buy, Target Price Change USD80.00

Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-

500
holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price 450 50%
400
from current price to projected target price plus pro- 350 46%
300
jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors 250
buy the stock. 200 37% 31%
150
Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share- 100
50
3% 32%
holder return, we recommend that investors sell the 0
Buy Hold Sell
stock
Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months Companies Covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship
out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend North American Universe
either a Buy or Sell.
Notes:
1. Newly issued research recommendations and target
prices always supersede previously published research.
2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:
Buy: Expected total return (including dividends) of
10% or more over a 12-month period
Hold: Expected total return (including dividends)
between -10% and 10% over a 12-month period
Sell: Expected total return (including dividends) of -
10% or worse over a 12-month period

Page 12 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

33
14 December 2009 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production XTO Energy

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Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 13

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Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

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