DROUGHT

Definition:

“Drought is defined as an extended period of deficient rainfall relative to

the average for a region”

In general, drought is defined as an extended period–a season, a year, or several

years–of deficient rainfall relative to the statistical multi-year average for a region.
However, dozens of more specific drought definitions are used around the world that
are defined according to the lack of rain over various time periods, or measured
impacts such as reservoir levels or crop losses. Because of the various ways drought is
measured, an objective drought definition has yet to be produced upon which
everyone can agree.

Drought can be defined according to meteorological, hydrological, or

agricultural criteria.

Meteorological drought is usually based on long-term precipitation departures

from normal, but there is no consensus regarding the threshold of the deficit or the
minimum duration of the lack of precipitation that make a dry spell an official
drought.

Hydrological drought refers to deficiencies in surface and subsurface water

supplies. It’s measured as stream flow, and as lake, reservoir, and ground water levels.

Agricultural drought occurs when there is insufficient soil moisture to meet the
needs of a particular crop at a particular time. A deficit of rainfall over cropped areas
during critical periods of the growth cycle can result in destroyed or underdeveloped
crops with greatly depleted yields. Agricultural drought is typically evident after
meteorological drought but before a hydrological drought.

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 Drought Planning and Drought Indices:

“Drought indices assimilate data on rainfall, temperature, snow pack,

stream flow, and other indicators into a big picture”.

Drought planning usually involves picking or creating an index to identify and

quantify anomalies. Drought indices assimilate thousands of bits of data on rainfall,
temperature, snow pack, stream flow, and other water supply indicators into a
comprehensible big picture that is far more useful than raw data for decision-making.

A sophisticated system for measuring drought was developed by National

Weather Service meteorologist Wayne Palmer in 1965. Now called the Palmer
Drought Severity Index (PDSI), it uses temperature and rainfall information in a
formula to determine dryness and has become the semi-official drought index.

The PDSI is most effective in determining long-term drought–a matter of

several months–and is not as effective with short-term forecasts (a matter of weeks). It
uses a 0 as normal, and drought is shown in terms of negative numbers; for example,
-2 is moderate drought, -3 is severe drought, and -4 is extreme drought. In mid August
2000, sections of many western states were in the -4 range.

Drought arcoss centuries:

Droughts in the 19th century:

 1803 Drought in NSW that produced severe crop failures.

 1809 Beginning of an unusually severe drought in NSW that continued until
1811.
 1813-15 Severe drought in NSW that prompted searches for new pastures.
 1826-29 Severe drought in NSW that caused Lake George to dry up and the
Darling River to cease flowing.[4]

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 Since 1860, when adequate meteorological recording commenced, the
most severe droughts have occurred commonly at intervals of 11 to 14 years. Major
droughts that were recorded later in the 19th century include:

 1829 Major drought in Western Australia with very little water available.[5]

 1835 and 1838 Sydney and NSW receive 25% less rain than usual. Severe
drought in Northam and York areas of Western Australia.
 1838-39 Droughts in South Australia and Western Australia
 1839 Severe drought in the west and north of Spencer Gulf, South Australia.
 1846 Severe drought converted the interior and far north of South Australia
into an arid desert.
 1849 Sydney received about 27 inches less rain than normal.
 1850 Severe drought, with big losses of livestock across inland New South
Wales (NSW) and around the western rivers region.
 1864 - 66 (and 1868).

The little data available indicates that this drought period was rather severe in
Victoria, South Australia, New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.

 1877 All States affected by severe drought, with disastrous losses in

Queensland. In Western Australia many native trees died, swamps dried up and
crops failed.
 1880 to 1886 Drought in Victoria (northern areas and Gippsland); New South
Wales (mainly northern wheat belt, Northern Tablelands and south coast);
Queensland (1881–86, in south-east with breaks - otherwise mainly in coastal
areas, the central highlands and central interior in 1883-86); and South
Australia (1884–86, mainly in agricultural areas).
 1888 Extremely dry in Victoria (northern areas and Gippsland); Tasmania
(1887-89 in the south); New South Wales had the driest year since records
began; Queensland (1888–89) had a very severe drought, with much native
scrub dying and native animals perishing; South Australia had one of its most

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 severe droughts; and Western Australia (central agricultural areas) lost many
sheep.

Drought in the 20th century:

During the severe, Australia wide, 1902 Federation Drought the total sheep
population dropped to fewer than 54,000,000 from a total of 106,000,000 sheep in
1891 and cattle numbers fell by more than 40 per cent. It was 1925 before the sheep
numbers reached the hundred-million mark again.

At the time of Federation, Australia suffered a major drought. There had been a
number of years of below average rainfall across most of Australia before the drought.
During the drought the wheat crop was "all but lost" and the Darling River was dry at
Bourke, New South Wales for over a year from April 1902 to May 1903. There was
concern about Sydney's water supply.[7] In the 1911-1915 period, Australia suffered a
major drought which resulted in the failure of the 1914 wheat crop.[8]

During 1918 to 1920 a severe drought was experienced by Queensland, New

South Wales, South Australia, Northern Territory (Darwin-Daly Waters area and
central Australia), Western Australia (Fortescue area), Victoria, and Tasmania.

During World War II, eastern Australia suffered dry conditions which lasted
from 1937 through to 1947 with little respite. [9] From 1965-68 eastern Australia was
again greatly affected by drought. Conditions had been dry over the centre of the
continent since 1957, but spread elsewhere during the summer of 1964/1965. This
drought contributed to the 1967 Tasmanian fires in which 62 people died in one day
and 1,400 homes were lost.[10]

The drought in 1982-83 is regarded as the worst of the twentieth century for
short-term rainfall deficiencies of up to one year and their overall impact. There were
severe dust storms in north-western Victoria and severe bushfires in south-east
Australia in February 1983 with 75 people killed.[11] This El-Nino related drought

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ended in March when a monsoon depression became an extratropical low and swept
across Australia's interior and on to the south-east in mid to late March.

A very severe drought occurred in the second half of 1991 [12] which intensified
in 1994 and 1995 to become the worst on record in Queensland.[13]

This drought was influenced by a strong El Nino weather pattern and

associated with high temperatures in July and August 1995, the fifth continuous year
of drought in parts of Queensland. According to Primary Industries Minister, Ed
Casey, "the drought affected region stretched in a 200 km to 300 km wide strip from
Stanthorpe to Charters Towers".[14] So few wheat and barley crops survived, about half
the usual for that year, that grains had to be imported from other states.

In June 1994, more than 10 towns had lost irrigation systems and some areas
had gone five years without decent rainfall.

A part of the upper Darling River system collapsed during this drought. By
October 1994, the Condamine River was exhausted, reverting to a series of ponds.
Across the state more than 13,000 properties, totaling 40% of Queensland was drought
declared.[16] The flow past Goondiwindi was the lowest since 1940. Cotton farms near
Moree and Narrabri had been allocated no water for irrigation which resulted in a
major loss of production.[16] The town of Warwick was particularly affected

Drought in the 21st century:

Around 2000 Australia was prone to wet weather brought on by La Niña

influenced weather patterns.

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Green drought, caused by insufficient rain after a long dry period, November 2002

Then from 2003 a long, severe drought, again the worst on record [17] was
experienced in many parts of Australia.

Rainfall deficiencies in 2006:

As of November 2006, the late-winter to mid-spring rainfalls had failed. The

average rainfall in the state of South Australia was the lowest since 1900. Across
Victoria and the Murray-Darling Basin the season was the second driest since 1900.
New South Wales' rainfall was boosted by above normal falls along the north
coast of the state, however the state average rainfall for the season is the third driest
since 1900. The situation has been worsened by temperatures being the highest on
record since the 1950s.[18][19]

Responses during 2006 and 2007:

The current drought has changed the way Australia treats its water resources.
Because of the long-term effects of the drought now showing, many state
governments are attempting to "drought-proof" their states with more permanent
solutions.

Australia in the past hundred years has relied solely on water from dams for
agriculture and consumption.[citation needed] Now schemes like grey-water water-recycling,

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government rebates for home-owners to install water tanks, and tougher restrictions on
industries have come into effect.

The citizens of Toowoomba voted on, and rejected, a referendum on using

recycled sewerage water. However, after the referendum Toowoomba began using
recycled sewerage water as no other feasible alternative was available.

Brisbane is set to be supplied via larger dams, a pipeline and possibly also
recycling. A desalination project has been initiated on the Gold Coast, Queensland,
but plans for a similar project in Sydney were halted after public opposition and the
discovery of underground aquifers. In November 2006 Perth completed a seawater
desalination plant that will supply the city with 17% of its needs.

Likewise, the Victorian Government is also in the process of building one of

the world's largest desalination plants. When complete, it will be capable of producing
up to a third of Melbourne's water needs.

Dairy producers have been hit particularly hard by the drought that has swept
much of Australia. And 2004 was a particularly bleak year in the sector, as a drought-
caused drop in production sent revenue in the industry down by 4.5%.

Most Australian mainland capital cities are facing a major water crisis with less
than 50% of water storages remaining. For example, Melbourne has had rain up to
90% below the average for September and October 2006, compounding the problem
of extremely low rainfall from the preceding winter months..Melbourne has been
experiencing high temperatures throughout October causing the evaporation of water
in dams and reservoirs, which has resulted in their levels falling by around 0.1% a
day. As a result of all these factors Melbourne is now on tighter water restrictions and
as of July 2009, water levels in its dams are at a mere 27% of capacity.

Agricultural production has been affected. Australia's cotton production has

dropped, with the smallest area planted in 20 years, a 66% reduction compared to five
years ago (considered a "normal" year). The crop has been half its usual size for three

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of the past five years. Water use by the industry fell by 37% between 2000/01 and
2004/05, due mainly to drought.[24] In the order of 20 cotton communities and
10,000 people directly employed by the cotton industry are impacted by the drought.
The main areas affected are in New South Wales: Menindee where the area
under production has reduced by 100%, Bourke has reduced the area under production
by 99%, Walgett has reduced the area under production by 95%, the Macquarie River
has reduced the area under production by 74% and the Gwydir River has reduced the
area under production by 60%.

In Queensland the worse affected areas are Biloela which has reduced the area
under production by 100%, at Dirranbandi there has been a 91% reduction, Central
Highlands has reduced the area under production by 82% and Darling Downs has
reduced the area under production by 78%. Bourke has only had adequate water for
one cotton crop in the last five years.

Stock feed is also becoming scarce and farmers are finding it difficult to feed
cattle and sheep.

Improved Monitoring of drought:

“Careful monitoring of drought can ease its impacts”

Careful monitoring of drought can ease its impacts, allowing people to take early
actions that prevent harsh impacts later. Both U.S. government and private meteorologists are
doing their part by producing better monitoring and forecast products. At the federal level, an
inter-agency consortium involving the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the
National Weather Service, and the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Nebraska,
began producing the Drought Monitor in 1999.

The Monitor includes a weekly national map displaying dryness divided into five
categories, or levels of intensity. The categories are based on readings from a number of
different drought indices, giving the user a composite picture of many indicators. Drought
information is updated daily through use of the thousands of observations available from
cooperative weather observers. These three agencies also consult with numerous experts from

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other agencies and offices across the country so that the map can be tweaked to more
effectively depict what is happening in the real world. The drought analysts also indicate on
the map if forecast conditions over the next 2 weeks will result in significant changes to the
drought situation.

Drought Forecasting:

“The most exciting developments in mitigating drought may be advances made

in forecasting the conditions that result in drought”.

Improved remote sensing from satellites and radar, as well as the use of thousands of
daily in-situ precipitation measurements, has dramatically improved drought-monitoring
capabilities. However, the most exciting developments in mitigating drought impacts may be
advances made in forecasting the conditions that result in drought. Meteorologists at the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations’ (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center
(CPC) are using medium-range forecast models to predict soil moisture two weeks into the
future. For the longer term, meteorologists are using statistical techniques and historical
drought information to construct analogues to current conditions. They then create forecasts
up to several seasons ahead of time based on past events. CPC is also using sophisticated
computer models that link ground and ocean conditions to the overlying atmosphere to create
forecasts of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture months ahead of time.

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Drought across countries:

Drought-hit India:

New Delhi - The drought situation in India was extraordinary and the
government would import items in short supply, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee
said Friday. "The decision is already there that whichever commodity will be in short
supply, to maintain demand-supply mechanism, we will go for imports," Mukherjee
said while addressing a meeting of state agriculture ministers in the Indian capital.
"We have developed a certain expertise to handle drought. We will not
publicize the government's plans to import food," he said.
"The moment news is spread that India is going for big imports, the market
prices are jacked up," he said.
News of the drought in India had already pushed up sugar prices in the
international market. India is the world's second largest sugarcane producer after
Brazil.
Mukherjee also said the drought could impact the economy and inflation.
"Drought does not affect only crop production it has a cascading effect," he said.
India announced on Wednesday that 246 of its 626 administrative districts were
drought-hit after insufficient monsoon rainfall.
Many of these districts are among the top rice-producing regions in the
country.
"The drought situation is difficult. It is an extraordinary situation," Mukherjee
said.It was critical to save standing crops and provide alternative crops to farmers who
have lost their crops, federal Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said at the meeting.
Sowing of the winter crop should be done early as there had been some late
monsoon showers, Pawar told the state agriculture ministers.
"The situation is grim. Not just for crop sowing and crop health but also for
sustaining animal health, providing drinking water, livelihood and food, particularly
for the small and marginal farmers and landless labourers," Pawar said.

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 More than 700 million people in India depend on agriculture and allied
activities for their livelihood.
Farming in India is heavily dependent on the seasonal monsoon rainfall which
comes from June to September. It is estimated only 30 per cent of India's farmland has
access to irrigation.
The month of September was critical, Ajit Tyagi, director general of India's
Meteorological Department, said.
A revival of the monsoon over the past week could be promising for the winter
crop, although it was too late for the summer crop, Tyagi added.
Mukherjee said India had started the drought year with good food grain buffer stocks.
According to the government's estimate, India has enough buffer stocks to
cover any shortage for a period of 13 months.
Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Bihar, Assam and Manipur are the
state’s worst affected by the current drought.

Drought in Uganda: Awful days are imminent:

"We are already in the crisis. There are areas where people are going with only
one meal in a day. There are also areas in Karamoja region where people do not have a
meal at all unless they are rescued. That is what is happening, the reality that we must
tackle,"
Ecweru Musa Francis, State Minister, Relief and Disaster Preparedness,
explains the magnitude of drought in Uganda.

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 Drought in the East African country, Uganda, is not a new phenomenon since it
happens almost every year, especially nowadays.
However, according to Francis, this year’s drought is different from previous droughts
as it caused by natural phenomenon called La Niña, which is followed by Eli-no and
characterized by long drought and extreme heat.

“It is a little bit extraordinary. It does not compare with the normal drought that we
have always been witnessing,” he remarks.

After Uganda had experienced Eli-no which struck most parts of the country by
resulting a lot of water logging and massive destruction of crops last year, the department of
meteorology was able to indicate that it was immediately followed by La Niña, a
phenomenon which is the opposite of Eli-no, as Office of the Prime Minister stated
“Thus, from about October last year, we have been warning the country that we also
have this experience and certainly the country is going to suffer from food shortages,” said
Francis. “We were also cautioned people who occupied the cattle corridor to be careful,
particularly warn them against burning pasture because we knew that this drought is going to
have its impact on both animals and humans.”

The thinking at that time was that probably at this time the rain would have started.
But the latest forecast from meteorology department indicated that it is likely a little longer.
According to the prediction, the rain might come back probably around April.

Currently, there are areas that are already beginning to face serious food problems. In
karamoja, for instance, there are communities who are going out without food. And the same
applies to areas that are suffering from water logging like the Teso region.

Affected areas:

Certainly Karamoja, northeast edge of Uganda where it borders Kenya and the Sudan,
is worst affected. It is “per annual problem” in Karamoja because of many more reasons.
Apart Teso region which is being affected by drought, the “cattle corridor”, beginning
from Nakasangolo going right up to Mutokola, is already in problems followed by drought.

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 The outcome of the on-coming drought is expected to be worse in these “cattle
corridor” areas, which are typified by semi-arid and dry sub-humid conditions, since they are
mainly rangelands and they cover approximately 40 percent of the total land area of the
country.

“It is unfortunate that even some parts of the country which have always been
witnessing bumper harvest are suffered from water logging and they are suffering from food
shortage,” the State Minister comments.

Delay of Response – “the sooner the better” :

Ugandan politicians have not given much attention to the existing drought since they
were busy to secure their seats from the Presidential and Parliamentary elections of 2011.

It is true that in the confusion of elections, we did not have so much focus on the
welfare of families (those who are being affected by drought) because we were very busy in
elections,” Francis admitted. “But the truth is that there are people who do not know when
their next meal is going to come. Animals are suffering and there are reports that they may
start dying soon.”

He also confirmed that the government is going to start in very few days to move
emergency relief to those areas.

“We, as a government, are doing everything we can to ensure that nobody dies of
hunger in these areas that are already experiencing situation of hunger,” he told to journalists.

The government is also working closely with its partners from World Food
Programme (WFP) to feed the vulnerable communities in Karamoja as State Minister Francis
said.
According to predictions from meteorological department, the current drought may
keep on up to the end of April when Ugandans expect the first rain start falling.

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 Thus, despite the fact that the government has not yet estimated how much the on-
coming drought cost might incur, it is inevitable that death rates during drought are
particularly high among certain animal species. Cattle, for instance, are less resistant than
sheep and goats.

However, Musa Francis seems optimistic. He says, “It is a serious matter but a matter
that we are being prepared to do everything.”

Drought in Kenya Causing Death of African Elephants and Other

Iconic Animals:

Conservationists have announced that more than sixty African elephants and
hundreds of other iconic animals have died so far in Kenya amid the worst drought to
hit the country in over a decade.

So-called “long rains” that usually fall in March and April failed this year, and some
areas in Kenya have now been in drought conditions for almost three years. No one
knows why the drought has been so bad. Many attribute it to global warming, but
others say it is simply part of the long-term weather cycle in East Africa.

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 According to a report in National Geographic News, since January, at least 38
dead elephants have been found in the area around the Laikipia highlands and
Samburu National Reserve.

In addition, 30 baby elephants have been reported dead so far this year in
Amboseli National Park, farther south, officials said.

Some of the animals died of thirst, while others starved due to lack of
vegetation or succumbed to diseases or infections due to weakened immune systems,
according to wildlife officials

Many of Kenya’s other iconic species, including lions, crocodiles, zebra, and
wildebeests, are also suffering in drought conditions and could start dying at
worrisome rates, according to wildlife officials.

“The elephants are very smart animals,” said Iain Douglas-Hamilton, founder
of the Nairobi-based nonprofit Save The Elephants.

“But I think they are going to die in large numbers, and that goes for the other
grazers and browsers, too,” he added.

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 One recent study found that wildlife numbers both inside and outside Kenya’s
parks have fallen by 40 percent since the 1970s.

Conservation officials have been working to protect some animals from the
effects of the drought by feeding or relocating them.

At Mzima Springs in Tsavo West National Park, rangers have been laying out
hay for hippopotamuses to eat.

The Kenya Wildlife Service has moved ten white rhinoceroses from Lake
Nakuru to Nairobi National Park, in part because the parched land can’t support the
large animals.

Drought Conditions Worsen In China's Southwestern:

Drought conditions in China's southwestern region are worsening as there's

been no effective rainfall in the areas since the middle of this month.

Statistics show the dry spell has affected 7.6 million hectares of farm land.
More than 22 million people and 13 million cattle are suffering from a shortage of
drinking water. Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan provinces, Guangxi Zhuang autonomous
region and Chongqing municipalities are the worst hit areas, accounting for 85 percent
of drought-hit farm land.

Twenty percent of residents living in Yunnan province are facing a water crisis.
More than 75 percent of streams and small rivers in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous
Regions' Baise city have dried up, while the volume of major rivers has fallen fifty to
seventy percent.

Drought conditions in China's southwestern region are worsening as there's

been no effective rainfall in the areas since the middle of this month.

Statistics show the dry spell has affected 7.6 million hectares of farm land.
More than 22 million people and 13 million cattle are suffering from a shortage of

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drinking water. Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan provinces, Guangxi Zhuang autonomous
region and Chongqing municipalities are the worst hit areas, accounting for 85 percent
of drought-hit farm land.

Twenty percent of residents living in Yunnan province are facing a water crisis.
More than 75 percent of streams and small rivers in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous
Regions' Baise city have dried up, while the volume of major rivers has fallen fifty to
seventy percent.

‘Heavy Himalayan snowfall cause of drought in India’

LONDON: Reading University, one of UK's leading research centres, claims to

have solved a riddle that has perplexed scientists since the 19th century. An intensive
study carried out by it has reached the conclusion that heavy snowfall over the
Himalayas in winter and spring can be the direct cause of drought in India, especially
in the early part of the summer monsoon.

Given that last winter was quite severe and mammoth quantities of snow may
have fallen on the Himalayan range, all concerned in the Indian agrarian sector need
to be vigilant about a delayed monsoon and plan accordingly. This is what the report
appears to suggest.

Dr Andy Turner, lead author of the research at Walker Institute of the

university, said: ''Our work shows how, in the absence of a strong influence from the
tropical Pacific, snow conditions over the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau could be
used to help forecast seasonal monsoon rainfall for India, particularly over northern
India during the onset month of June.''

These findings are highly significant because Indian agriculture is heavily

dependent on early rainfall; a lack of this in the crucial growing season tends to have a
devastating impact on crops, as was experienced last year. The work is a part of

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Reading's Climate Programme of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science
( NCAS).

Scientists have known since the 1880s that increased snow over the Himalayas
can be linked with weaker summer monsoon rains in India. However, according to
Reading, the mechanisms explaining this correlation have never been properly
understood. The latest research shows that greater snowfall reflects more sunlight and
produces a cooling over the Himalayas. This in turn means a weakening of the
monsoon winds that bring rain to India.

The relationship is said to be strongest in the absence of warm (El Nino) or

cold (La Nina) environments in the tropical Pacific, since these are normally the
dominant control factors over the Indian rains. A spokesperson for Reading university
said its research is based on extensive experiments with the British Met Office/Hadley
Centre climate model.

The Impacts of Drought:

While droughts do not often cause deaths in the United States, the Dust Bowl in
the US Midwest is one example of the devastation that can occur. This site has a great
list of other famous droughts.

1. There are three main ways droughts impact lives and communities. First, the

economic impacts of drought include losses in the timber, agricultural, and

fisheries communities. Many of these losses are then passed on to consumers in
the form of higher commodity pricing.
2. Next social impacts include increased chance of conflict over commodities,

fertile land, and water resources. Other social impacts include abandonment of
cultural traditions, loss of homelands, changes in lifestyle, and increased
chance of health risks due to poverty and hygiene issues.
3. Finally, the environmental impacts of drought include loss in species
biodiversity, migration changes, reduced air quality, and increased soil erosion.

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 Other parts of the world experience long periods without rains as well. Even
during monsoon season, areas that depend on the seasonal rains will often experience
drought if the monsoon rains fail. Once crops fail, famine can become a major
problem. In some African countries, rain rituals are often used to try and thwart the
dry seasons and bring on the rain. While it is no cure, modern technology has
developed ways to help see potential famine situations as satellites see famine
conditions from space.

Types of Droughts:
While droughts can be defined in many ways, three main drought types are
commonly discussed. Also available is a chart of the types of droughts.

1. Hydrological Drought:

Many watersheds experience depleted amounts of available water. Lack

of water in river systems and reservoirs can impact hydroelectric power
companies, farmers, wildlife, and communities.

2. Meteorological Drought:

A lack of precipitation is the most common definition of drought and is

usually the type of drought referred to in news reports and the media. Most
locations around the world have their own meteorological definition of drought
based on the climate normals in the area. A normally rainy area that gets less
rain than usual can be considered in a drought.

3. Agricultural Drought:

When soil moisture becomes a problem, the agricultural industry is in

trouble with drought. Shortages in precipitation, changes in evapo-
transpiration, and reduced ground water levels can create stress and problems
for crops.

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Preventing, Predicting, and Preparing for Droughts:
Several resources are available to help scientists and forecasters to predict
droughts.

 Drought Index Charts Use this brief article to determine how to use 8 different
drought indices.
 The US Drought PortalSee how drought impacts your community.
 The National Drought Mitigation Center Great details on the difficulties and
successes of predicting droughts are available at the NDMC.
 10 Steps to Drought Preparation A great article for communities, businesses,
and families.
 US Seasonal Drought Outlooks The National Weather Service provides
predictions of the chances of drought across the United States.

Fight Droughts with Science :

News that India may suffer a weaker-than-normal monsoon this year is raising
concerns about crop yields and food supply. As worrying as those reports are,
however, this is only a short-term element of a much bigger problem with the
availability of water there. Even when the rains do come, India's water usage still will
be at unsustainable levels. Better crop plants that use water more efficiently could be a
big part of the solution—if only bureaucrats and activists would get out of the way.

Irrigation for agriculture accounts for roughly 70% of the world's fresh water
consumption, but that figure can be higher in some places, depending on crop types
and local hydrological conditions. India, for instance, is the world's second-largest
producer of cotton, the thirstiest of crops: It takes 11,000 liters of water to produce a
single kilogram. In just one example of the consequences, consumption from
irrigation and other human uses is depleting groundwater in the northwestern part of
India at the unsustainable rate of four centimeters per year despite consistent rainfall
levels, according to an article published this week in the British journal Nature.

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 The results of this research should get policy makers to focus on how water is
being used, especially in India's agricultural sector. The introduction of plants that
grow with less water would allow more to be freed up for other uses. Plant biologists
have identified genes regulating water utilization that can be transferred into important
crop plants. Some modifications allow plants to grow with less or lower-quality water.
The first drought-resistant crop, maize, is expected to be commercialized by 2012. If
field testing goes well, India would be a potential market for this variety.

Pest- and disease-resistant strains also indirectly help water efficiency. Because
much of the loss to insects and diseases occurs after the plants are fully grown—that
is, after most of the water required to grow a crop has already been applied—the use
of crop varieties that experience lower post-harvest losses in yield means that the
farming and irrigation of fewer plants can produce the same total amount of food.
More than 13 million farmers in at least 25 countries already are using genetically
modified crop varieties to produce higher yields with lower inputs and reduced impact
on the environment. In 2008, India ranked fourth in the world (behind the United
States, Argentina and Brazil) in cultivation of genetically modified crops, with 7.6
million hectares.

But research and development are being hampered by resistance from activists
and discouraged by governmental overregulation. There are more than a dozen vocal
and radical activist groups—of which Greenpeace is the prototype—around the world
opposed to this kind of technology.

They have concocted tales in developing countries about genetically modified

crops causing homosexuality, impotence, illnesses like HIV/AIDS, and even baldness.
One of the most vocal activists is Delhi-based Vandana Shiva, who denies not only
the manifest benefits and potential of genetically modified crops, but even derides the
20th century's stellar Green Revolution as having inflicted violence on the
environment. She claims that genetically modified crop technology is untested,
unproven and unsafe—all of which are demonstrably untrue.

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 This pressure both encourages overregulation in response to questionable
science and also offers cover to those who want to overregulate these crops for other
reasons. The United Nations agency that sets international food standards, the Codex
Alimentarius Commission, has established requirements for data on genetic
construction, composition, toxicity, and the like specific to genetically modified foods
that are hugely expensive—and that could not be met by any food derived from
conventionally modified plants.

In addition the Cartagena "biosafety protocol," crafted under the aegis of the
United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity, has created unscientific and
burdensome regulations of field trials and transport of genetically modified organisms
(but not of other conventional plants such as invasive vines or weedy grasses that are
far more worrisome). The United States has not ratified this convention.

Meanwhile, governments interested in protecting their agricultural sectors from

foreign competition are all too happy to use spurious fears over genetically modified
crops to erect trade barriers. Witness the European Union's unscientific, protectionist
restrictions on the import of genetically modified agricultural products. This, as much
as any other U.N. regulation, effectively discourages the use of these technologies. A
study by Professor David Zilberman at the University of California at Berkeley dates
the worldwide slowdown in the development pipeline to the EU's 1998 ban on
genetically modified products.

The U.N.'s misadventures in regulation fly in the face of the quarter-century-

old scientific consensus that modern genetic modification is essentially an extension
or refinement of conventional (but less precise and less predictable) ways of
modifying crops to create or enhance desirable characteristics.

The U.N.'s inconsistency is striking. The Food and Agriculture Organization

calls for a greater allocation of resources to agriculture, but then makes those
resources drastically less cost-effective via unnecessary, unscientific regulation of
genetically modified plants. The Secretary-General of the U.N.'s World

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Meteorological Organization announces that "integrated water-resources management
is the key to achieving the Millennium Development Goals of securing access to safe
water, sanitation and environmental protection," while an alphabet soup of other U.N.
agencies is making virtually impossible the development of crops that can grow with
low-quality water or under drought conditions.

By compromising commerce and the quality of life, water scarcity has the
potential to destabilize industrialized and developing countries alike. Scarcity hinders
economic development; excessive water extraction lowers ground levels and
exacerbates rising sea levels; and poor water quality makes populations vulnerable to
water-related diseases, such as cholera, dysentery, viral hepatitis A and typhoid.
Especially during drought conditions—which currently afflict much of Europe,
Africa, Australia, South America and the U.S.—even a small percentage reduction in
the use of water for irrigation could result in huge benefits, both economic and
humanitarian.

Some of the planet's biggest drought fears may be in India today, but no one
will be immune to water worries in the future. It's essential that bureaucrats and activists
stop blocking agricultural technologies that can give us more crop for the drop.

Drought may threaten much of globe within decades:

The United States and many other heavily populated countries face a growing
threat of severe and prolonged drought in coming decades, according to a new study
by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Aiguo Dai. The
analysis concludes that warming temperatures associated with climate change will
likely create increasingly dry conditions across much of the globe in the next 30 years,
possibly reaching a scale in some regions by the end of the century that has rarely, if
ever, been observed in modern times.

Using an ensemble of 22 computer climate models and a comprehensive index

of drought conditions, as well as analyses of previously published studies, the paper

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finds that most of the Western Hemisphere, along with large parts of Eurasia, Africa,
and Australia, will be at risk of extreme drought this century.

In contrast, higher-latitude regions from Alaska to Scandinavia are likely to

become more moist.

Dai cautioned that the findings are based on the best current projections of
greenhouse gas emissions. What actually happens in coming decades will depend on
many factors, including actual future emissions of greenhouse gases as well as natural
climate cycles such as El Niño.

The new findings appear this week as part of a longer review article in Wiley
Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. The study was supported by the National
Science Foundation, NCAR's sponsor.

"We are facing the possibility of widespread drought in the coming decades,
but this has yet to be fully recognized by both the public and the climate change
research community," Dai says. "If the projections in this study come even close to
being realized, the consequences for society worldwide will be enormous."

While regional climate projections are less certain than those for the globe as a
whole, Dai's study indicates that most of the western two-thirds of the United States
will be significantly drier by the 2030s. Large parts of the nation may face an
increasing risk of extreme drought during the century.

Other countries and continents that could face significant drying include:

 Much of Latin America, including large sections of Mexico and Brazil

 Regions bordering the Mediterranean Sea, which could become especially dry
 Large parts of Southwest Asia
 Most of Africa and Australia, with particularly dry conditions in regions of
Africa
 Southeast Asia, including parts of China and neighboring countries

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 The study also finds that drought risk can be expected to decrease this century
across much of Northern Europe, Russia, Canada, and Alaska, as well as some areas
in the Southern Hemisphere. However, the globe's land areas should be drier overall.

"The increased wetness over the northern, sparsely populated high latitudes
can't match the drying over the more densely populated temperate and tropical areas,"
Dai says.

A climate change expert not associated with the study, Richard Seager of
Columbia University's Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, adds:

"As Dai emphasizes here, vast swaths of the subtropics and the midlatitude
continents face a future with drier soils and less surface water as a result of reducing
rainfall and increasing evaporation driven by a warming atmosphere. The term 'global
warming' does not do justice to the climatic changes the world will experience in
coming decades. Some of the worst disruptions we face will involve water, not just
temperature."

A portrait of worsening drought:

Previous climate studies have indicated that global warming will probably alter
precipitation patterns as the subtropics expand. The 2007 assessment by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that subtropical areas
will likely have precipitation declines, with high-latitude areas getting more
precipitation.

In addition, previous studies by Dai have indicated that climate change may
already be having a drying effect on parts of the world. In a much-cited 2004 study, he
and colleagues found that the percentage of Earth's land area stricken by serious
drought more than doubled from the 1970s to the early 2000s. Last year, he headed up
a research team that found that some of the world's major rivers are losing water.

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 In his new study, Dai turned from rain and snow amounts to drought itself, and
posed a basic question: how will climate change affect future droughts? If rainfall runs
short by a given amount, it may or may not produce drought conditions, depending on
how warm it is, how quickly the moisture evaporates, and other factors.

Droughts are complex events that can be associated with significantly reduced
precipitation, dry soils that fail to sustain crops, and reduced levels in reservoirs and
other bodies of water that can imperil drinking supplies. A common measure called
the Palmer Drought Severity Index classifies the strength of a drought by tracking
precipitation and evaporation over time and comparing them to the usual variability
one would expect at a given location.

Dai turned to results from the 22 computer models used by the IPCC in its
2007 report to gather projections about temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind
speed, and Earth's radiative balance, based on current projections of greenhouse gas
emissions. He then fed the information into the Palmer model to calculate the PDSI
number. A reading of +0.5 to -0.5 on the index indicates normal conditions, while a
reading at or below -4 indicates extreme drought.

By the 2030s, the results indicated that some regions in the United States and
overseas could experience particularly severe conditions, with average readings over
the course of a decade potentially dropping to -4 to -6 in much of the central and
western United States as well as several regions overseas, and -8 or lower in parts of
the Mediterranean.

By the end of the century, many populated areas, including parts of the United
States, could face readings in the range of -8 to -10, and much of the Mediterranean
could fall to -15 to -20. Such readings would be almost unprecedented.

Dai cautions that global climate models remain inconsistent in capturing

precipitation changes and other atmospheric factors, especially at the regional scale.
However, the 2007 IPCC models were in stronger agreement on high- and low-
latitude precipitation than those used in previous reports, says Dai.

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 There are also uncertainties in how well the Palmer index captures the range of
conditions that future climate may produce. The index could be overestimating
drought intensity in the more extreme cases, says Dai. On the other hand, the index
may be underestimating the loss of soil moisture should rain and snow fall in shorter,
heavier bursts and run off more quickly. Such precipitation trends have already been
diagnosed in the United States and several other areas over recent years, says Dai.

"The fact that the current drought index may not work for the 21st century
climate is itself a troubling sign," Dai says.

Nation - wide Statistics of the 2002 Drought in India :

 Water storage in 70 major reservoirs was 33% less than the average of
previous 10
years.
 An area of 21.53 million hectares was not sown and 47 million hectares of
sown were
damaged by drought with a shortfall of 29 million tones grain production.
 Around 150 million cattle were affected due to lack of folder and water. Milk
procurement declined by 22% in Rajasthan, by 8% in Madhya Pradesh and by
7% in Tamil nadu.
 A population of over 300 million in 180 million hectares (56% of total
geographical
area) was affected.
 There was a loss of 1,250 million person - days of employment.
 Agricultural GDP was reduced by 3.1% due to agricultural income loss of
INR390 Billion (US$ 8.7 billon)
 Irrigation cost of tube wells increased by INR 2,000 (US$44.4) per hectare in
Punjab state.
 The federal government provided a total relief of INR 200 billon (US$4.4
billion)

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  The groundwater table in drought - affected areas declined by 2 to 4 meters
below the normal levels.
 About 1.5 billion liters of drinking water per day were transported by tankers
and railways during the drought period

Social Security Programme by Indian government:

 Antoyodaya Anna Yojana (AAY)
 National Old Age Programme (NOAP.
 Annapurana Scheme (Rs. 3.0 billion)
 Integrated Child Development Scheme (ICDS)
 Mid Day Meal – School Children
 Opening of cattle camps and subsidized fodder.
 Association of NGOs and UN Agencies.
 Use of Information Technology – websites email for communication
 Monitoring by Group of Ministers and the Prime Minister at political level
 Constant Monitoring by Group of Secretaries under Cabinet Secretary.
 National Crop Forecasting Centre (NCFC) and Crop Weather Watch Group.
 Warning and forecasting by India Met Department (IMD)
 1978 exploratory bore wells handed over by CGWB for augmenting water
supply.
 Free transportation of drinking water by Railways – 19009 wagons and Fodder
386 wagons

Financial Arrangements :

 Readily availability of funds with the State Governments in the form of

Calamity Relief Fund (CRF)
 State wise allocation in CRF based on the recommendations of the Finance

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 Commissions – Rs. 21.0- billion for 2001-02
 CRF sharing between Central and State Government in the ratio of 3:1
 Additional assistance provided in the wake of disaster of severe nature from
National Calamity Contingency Fund (NCCF) - released Rs. 20.0 billion.
 Funds are also available from many on-going Plan Schemes of the Central and
State Governments

Conclusion:

Droughts and their management are a serious challenge to water resource

professionals. While droughts predominate in arid regions, their frequency and
severity in more temperate regions with more abundant rainfall have been on the rise.
Drought Management and Planning for Water Resources provides an essential
collection of planning and management tools for minimizing the negative impacts of
droughts. Comprehensive and up-to-date, it covers water conservation and reuse,
conjunctive use and use of marginal resources, desalination, deep groundwater
extraction, optimization modeling, and decision support systems.

With contributions from a prestigious international panel, the book presents

best management practices that maximize efficiency, reliability, and economy while
minimizing the potential for adverse effects to the environment and human health.
Providing appropriate methodologies, the chapters discuss how conjunctive water use
can increase water availability in the developing world and what types of conjunctive
use schemes are the most promising. The book examines the feasibility of a drought
watch alert system and the legal and administrative framework required. It also
explores the application of the Optimization Models and the Decision Support
Systems to the study of different water management alternatives under drought
conditions. Drought Management and Planning for Water Resources delineates how to
reduce drought effects through pro-active vision, good management, and conjunctive
use of water sources.

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