N.

Panin - Global Changes,Sea Level Rrbrngand the Danube Delta

SEALEVELRISINGANDTHEDANUBEDELTA:
GLOBALCHANGES,
RISKSANDRESPONSES
NicolaePautru

Nationallnstituteof MarineGeologyand Geo-ecology(GEoEcoMAR)

23-25,DimitrieOnciulStr-,BucharestRO-70318,Romania
panin@geoecomar.ro

Abstract. The Danube Delta is one of the largestdeltas in Europe (-5800 kmz)and representsthe Upper Pleistocene-Holocene
and present-daydepocentreof the River Danube.The recent Delta developmentstarted at -1 1,700 yr. BP and includes5 main
phaseswhen ciifferentlobes had progradations(up to 10 m/a), sometimesfollowedby regressions(4-6 m/a). Consequentlyto the
shortageof Danube-bornesedimentsupply, due mainlyto the dams building,strong erosion processesaffect the Danube Delta
coast zone (shorelinerecessionup to 20 m/a), exceptvery limitedsectionswhere the sedimentarybudget is still in equilibrium.In
responseto the expectedfuturesea level rise,the regressionof beacheswill obviouslycontinueall along the Danube Delta coast
(meancoast recessionestimateto 3 to 5 m/a.).Despiteof a not very criticalvalueof the sea level rise,the impacton the shorezone
will be quite strong due to combined effect of the level rising, wind set-up, shortage of beach sediment feeding and anthropic
pressure on the coast area. The sealevel rise of more than 20-30 cm (as it is forecasted tor 202O-2030)will significantlyaffect the
Danubewater and sedimentdischargewithinthe delta front.At the same time a rise by 20-30 cm will flood the lowest areas within
the coastalzone and will enhancethe flood risks on the entiredeltaterritory.
R6sum6, Le Deltadu Danubeest un des plus importantsde l'Europe(-5.e00 km2)et repr6sentele centre de d6p6t des s6diments
du Danube pendantle PldistocneSup6rieur,le Holocdneet l'actuel.Le d6veloppementdu delta actuel a commenc6il y a -1'1.700
ans et peut Ctresous-divis6een 5 phasespendantlesquellesles diff6rentslobes deltaiquesont eu des progradationsen moyenne
jusqu'd 1Om/an,parfoissuivies de rdgressionsde .4"6m/an. Comme cons6quenced la diminutionde I'apportdes sEdimentsdu
Danube,due principalementi la constructiondes barragessur le fleuve,presqueI'entidrezone c6tidredu Delta est affectdepar de
fortes6rosions{retraitde la c6te jusqu'd20 m/an) i I'exceptionde quelquessecteurslimit6sou l'6quilibres6dimentaireest encore
pr6serv6.La mont6e pr6vue du niveaude la mer va d6terminerla continuationdu recul du trait de la c6te sur tout le front du delta
(estim6d une valeur moyennede 3-5 mlan). L'effetcumul6de la mont6edu niveaude la mer, des surcotesdues aux temptes,de
la diminutiondes apportss6dimentaireset de la pressionanthropiquesera assezimportant.La mont6edu niveaude la mer de 20-
30 cm vers 202A-2030pourra influencerd'une manidresignificativeles d6chargess6dimentairesdu Danube dans la zone c6tidre,
certaineszones basses du delta prs de la c6te seront submerg6s,ainsi que les risques des grandes inondationssur tout le
territoiredu delta seront augment6s.
Key words: Dan6e Delta,BlackSea,coadalzone,shoreline, er6ion, sealevel,globalchanges,sedimentload,sedimantary
budget,environmental
risk.

the continentfrom the SchwarzwaldMassifin Germany

1. INTRODUCTION down to the Black Sea. lts drainaoebasin extendson
817,000 km2, more than 15 colntries sharing this
The Blac[ Se4 is the largestlandlockedsea: total catchmentarea.
area 4.2x105 km2,^maximum depth 2.212 m, water The secondterm of the systemis the DanubeDelta,
volume547.015 km", bellowthe depthof 15G200m the situated in the north-westernpart of the Black Sea,
deep water is anoxic and contaminatedwith HzS. The between44'25'and 45" 30' N and between28' 45' and
Black Sea is connectedto the Mediterranean Sea only 29^46' E. The delta plain covers an area of about 5,800
through a rather narrow and shallow Bosphorous- km" of which the lower,marine delta plain representsca.
Dardanellessystem of straits.The past changes of the 1,800km'. The DanubeDeltashorelineis about 24Okm
Black Sea level, which have occurred in Quaternary, long, of which about 75 km representsthe coastlineof
driven by the global glaciationsand deglaciations, Kilia Delta and belongsto Ukraineand 165 km is on
followed up to a certain limit the World Ocean level Romanianterritory.
changes.When the generalsea levelwas lowerthan the The other end-termof the system is the Black Sea,
Bosphoroussill (32-34 m) the further variations of the which was shortlypresentedabove.
Black Sea level were determined by speciflc regional
conditionswithoutbeingcoupledto the oceanchanges. 2. HISTORICAL TREND OF THE DANUBE
The Black Sea drainagebasin covers more than 2 DELTA COAST LINE MIGRATION
millionkm2.The main rivei-seageo-systemof this basin
is the RiverDanube- BlackSea one.The RiverDanube The deltaicconditionswere establishedhere during
as one of the end-terms of this system, is the most the Quaternary,when the Danube started flowing into
importantEuropeanwateruuays flowing2,857 km across the BlackSea basin.The importantQuaternarychanges

GEO-ECO-MAR\NA,U1999 le
National lnstituteof Marine Geology and Geo-ecology
Proc. lntern. Workshop on "Modernand Ancient SedimentaryEnvironmentsandProcesses" in Moeciu, Romania, OcL &15, 1998
 N. Panin - Global Changes,Sea leyel Rrsingand the Danube Delta

of the sea level stronglyinfluencedthe DanubeDelta spit",the delta-front advancedbeyondthe present-day

and its coastlineevolution.The WUrmianregressions, shoreline by 10-15km.
andespecially thatofthe Neoeuxinian stageof the Black 4. At the sametime (3,500-1,500 yr. BP) in the
Sea (the minimumat about18,000yr. BC),whenthe southernpartof the deltaarea,a littlesecondarydelta-
sea levelloweredto -130+ -150m, broughtaboutthe the "Cosna-Sinoie Delta",was formedby a secondary
intenseerosionof much of the olderQuaternarydelta distributary namedDunavSt.lts front line progradedat
deposits.One can still recognisesome remnantsof leastby 5 km offshorefromthe presentshoreline.
these older deposits(assignedto Karangatian and
Surojskian),preservedbehind some relics of the 5. The next phase(-2,800 yr. BP - present)is
predeltaicrelief.The present-day DanubeDeltaedifice represented by the formationof two new deltaiclobes:
(tensto 300-400m thicknessof detritaideposits)was "KiliaDelta"in the North,built up by a new Danube
thereforeformedmainlyduringthe UpperPleistocene distributary - Kilia,and"St"Georgell Delta"in the South,
(Karangatian, Surojskian, Neoeuxinian) and especially corresponding to a reactivationof the $t. George
duringthe Holocene (Paninet al.,1983). distributary.By thenthe Sulinadistributary was partly
The development of the DanubeDeltaduringthe cloggedandthe SulinaDeltagradually eroded. Thus,
Holocene time is markedby the following mainphases duringthe last-2,800yr.the newlobeshaveprograded
(Paninef a/.,1983;Panin,1989,1998)(Fig.1, 2): by 16-18Km,whileSulinaDeltacoastlineregressed by
about10-12km.Thesameprocess of erosionandcoast
1. "Letea-Caraorman initialspit" phase(11,700- regression(by few km) has been recordedat the
7,500yr.BP):the coastline was represented by a spit "Cosna-Sinoie Delta"withinthe Portita-Periboina
section
locatedat the entranceintothe "DanubeGulf'at about of the littoralzone.
25-30kmWestof the presentdeltashoreline;

2. The first delta of the River Danube- "St.
George I Delta" was formed by the first Danube
- the Paleo-St.Georgebranchin the 9,000-
distributary
7,200yr. BP period.In about2,000yr. the DeltaSt.
GeorgeI hasprograded seawardby aboutI km;
3. PRESENT.DAYSTATE OF THE DANUBE
DELTACOASTALZONE
3.1 Processesand dynamic factors controlling
the deltacoastlinemorphologyand development

3. The followingphase(7,200-2,000 yr. BP) is a. RiverDanubewaterandsedimentinput

represented
by the development -
of a new distributary
Sulina and rts deltaic lobe - "Sulina Delta".The The following
tablecharacterises the RiverDanube
maximumprogradation was of 30-35km fromthe "initial water and sedimentdischarges during1840-1990 period
at the entranceinto the delta territory(Bondaref a/_,
2000).
Table 1 Main characteristicsof the River Danubewater and sedimentdischarqes

Characteristic values WaterQ Sediment discharqe R

Mean multiannualdischaroe 6.283m'/s(198.3km'/vr.) 1,737kals(54.8M Vvr.)
Meanannualmaximumdischaroeand date 9.420m"/s in 1941 4.780 kois in 1871
Mean annualminimaldischarseand date 3.160m'/sin 1863 224ko/s in 1990
Maximumdailvdischaroeand date 20,940m'/sin 07.1897
Minimumdailv discharoeand date 1.350m"/sin 10.1921

The sedimentdischargespresentedin the Table 1 originates

mainlyin the sediments
erodedfromthe river
resulted from a mediation of values measured before bottom.
and after lron Gate I and ll dams building.The average
annualsuspendedsedimentdischargebeforethe dams b. Meteorologicalfactors - wind system
buildingwas 2,140 Kg.s-' (67,5 mittionsVyr), out of
which sandy alluvia ca. 10% (Almazov ef a/., 1963; The westernand north-western areasof the Black
Stangikef a/., 1988). Sea basinare zonesof activeatmospheric circulation,
After '1970, consequentlyto the building of lron beingsituatedat the interference
of the routesof Aflantic
Gates I dam (Km.942,95from the Black Sea) and, and Polar,Mediterranean and Euro-Asian air masses.
especiallyafter the lron Gates ll (OstrovulMare) dam Thus,windsexceeding 2mls arerecorded for 80-g0%of
(Km 864) building in 1983, the sediment discharge a year,windsexceeding6 m/s for 30-55%and those
decreasedcatastrophically (Fig. 3): at present,one can exceeding 11 m/s tor4-15o/o. Prevaiiingwindsarefrom
estimate that the Danube total average sediment the northernsector(40-50%);the northernwinds are
dischargecould not be largerthan 35 - 40 millionUyr., alsothestrongest. Thefrequency and durationof storms
out of which less than 4 millionUyr. is sandy material fromthe northernsectorare clearlypredominant(more
(Panin, 1996). This is the only amount of sandy than55%).
sediments contributing yearly to the littoral zone
sedimentary budget,which since 1970 becamestrongly
c. Sealeveland subsidence
uncompensated. lt is also obviousthat the presentday
coarsesedimentload(bed load)of the Danube TheDeltais situatedin an areaof highmobility
of the
Earthcrust,repeatedly
affectedby strongsubsidence

GEO-ECO-MARINA. 4/1999
National lnstituteof Marine Geology and Geo-ecology
Proc' lntern. Workshopon "Modern and AncientSedimentaryEnvironmeiis andprocessej; in Maeciu, Romanla,
oct, g-15. 199g
 N. Panin - Global Changes,Sea Level andtheDanubeDe,ta

'6t
m
'!Kl
::H

,m
e4.topinr l.

//
SII GEORGE
OTLfT

l*z .4,
-ts
+v

t;
|

.t-
.F'
9-
l'
,-t--r.$
^tOItVt^lto{t
(1 - Brlt cg
t?-{rrDrl rl
I !l-la|fu.!lrl t
(l -Pl!!lo,
n'l'eor(t -S&tr Cta16,(al

P l l - P u r e h ll l !rl
L il-L6aa ll ltt |frlu t,r o1 ir
lll.lin.r I r rrl
t-3*l--:L-l--! H'

Fig. 1 The DanubeDeltageomorphologic-sedimentologic structure.

The map outlinesthe main sets of beachridgesand the phases
of deltadevelopmentduringthe Holocene.

21
National Instituteof Maine Geology and Gea-ecology
Proc. Intern. Workshop on "Madern and Ancient SedimentaryEnvironmentsandPl'ocesses"in Moeciu, Romania, Act. 8-15, 1998
 N. Panin - Global Changes,Sea leyel Rarng and the Danube Delta

eEtl0
t
t

I
.,. I

' , 't n
..,,'*
lr
::;I., f, oi
'J
l n*

f
v
E
''t {
,,t
,l

-fu"r' n I n d c r e r{"

St.George
ll
Delta
f'o63na-$inoie
N/_{**detta
a% 3.$1.5K yr.BP
gua.
a sY.
g\

Fig. 2 The DanubeDeltaevolutionduringthe Horoceneand correspondent

coastlinepositionchanges(panin& E. and G. lon, 1997)

and importantsedimentaccumulation. At presentthe IOrCeS.

subsidenceofthecoastalzonenearbythe DanubeDelta Duringthe lastcentury
the maregraphic
rsappreciated observations
to 1.$1.8mm/yr. haveshownthetendency of risingby 1.S-4mm/year
The present-day of
variationsof the Black Sea level therefative mm/yr.- Selariu,1972;3.71
sealevel(2.S95
dependon seasonal,multiannual or eustatic
changes of
seawaterbalanceas well as on the deformation nT{yr. at $ulina,2,67 mmlyr.at Constaniza- Bondar,
of free 1989).
watersurfaceunderthe influenceof differentexternal

22 GEO-ECO.MARINA, 4/1999
National lnstitute of Marine Geatogyand Geo_ecotogy
Proc lntem. workshop on 'Modern and AncientSedimentary Environmeiis
and processes,,in Moeciu, Romania, oct. g-15. 199g

h
 N. Panin - Global Changes,Sea Leyel Rislng and the Danube Delta

DanubeSdimentDischargeatVaduOiihydrographicatation.Km.24T(1961.1996)

yF54,285x-105108
R'?: o 1492

19 5 5 19 0 0 I965 1970 1S 7 5

Fig. 3 The River Danubemean annualsedimentdischargevariationat Vadu Oii hydrographicstation(Kn 247).

and importantsedimentaccumulation. At presentthe energyis of approximately 2,000kWh/m(Spdtaru, 1984,

subsidence ofthe coastalzonenearby the DanubeDelta 1e92).
is appreciatedto 1.5-1.8
mm/yr. The atmospheric circulation
and otherhydrological
The present-day variationsof the BlackSea level and morphological factors determinein the BlackSea a
depend on seasonal, multiannualor eustatic
changes of general cyclonic water circulationwith numerous
seawaterbalanceas well as on the deformation of free secondaryand smallerscale eddies.In the north-
watersurfaceunderthe influenceof differentexternal westernand westernareasof the sea, this current,is
forces. flowingsouthwardtowardsthe Bosphorous. Withinthe
Duringthe lastcenturythe maregraphic observations DanubeDeltacoastalarea,thereis, evenduringquiet
haveshownthetendency of risingby 1.5-4mm/year of periods,a generally southwardcurrentcharacterised by
the relativesealevel(2.595mm/yr. Selariu,1972;3.73 5-50 cm/s velocitydependingon the water supplyof
-
mm/yr.at Sulina,2,67 mmlyr.at Constantza - Bondar, riversandthe Coriolis Force.In addition to thiscurrent,
1e89). the winds,of differentvelocityand stability,generatea
Amongstthe short-termdeformational oscillationof complex currentsystemgenerally roughlycorresponding
theseawatersurfaceseiches, windsurgesandtidesare to the wind direction,influencing the directionand
to be mentioned. The seichesin the north-western and spreading of the riverjet-likewedge.
westernareasof the BlackSea haveperiodsfromfew As regards the Danube Delta seashore,the
minutes to 13 hours and amplitudesfrom few longshoresedimentdrift is directedtowardssouth. lts
centimetres to 2.0 m. The stormsurgesfromnorthern, intensity is highenoughto transport the coarse-grained
north-eastern,eastern and south-easterndirections discharge of the Danubemanytens of km southof the
inducesea levelset-upof up to 1,2-1.5m. Thetide in distributary mouthsalongthe shore.Localperturbations
the BlackSeahas insignificant values(amplitudes of Z- of southward littoralsedimentmovementare inducedby
11 cm, averageperiodof 12.25h) (Bondaret at., 1973: differentanthropogenic structuresbuilton the shoreline
Sorokin, '1982). (e.9.the eddy circulation south of the Sulinajetties)
(Almazovef a/.,1963;Bondaret al., 1973).
d. Waves,currents and longslroresedimentdrift
system 3.2.Thepresent-daystateof coastaldegradation
The wave regimein the westernand nodh-western At presentthe Romanian DanubeDeltacoastzone
parts of the BlackSea basincan be characterised as canbe dividedinto11sections withspecific
',|980): dynamic
follows(Cristescu,Diaconu, tranquil(smooth)sea andequilibrium characteristics.
Thesesections arethe
(wavesbelow0.2m) represents 49.1o/oof thewholebulk foilowing(Panin,1976;Giosanet at.,1997)(Fig.4):
of data concerning the waves,wind waves- 33oloand
swell, 17.9o/o.The most frequentwind waves are 1. Baiade Nordor BaiaMusura(Northern Bav or
recordedalong NE direction,corresponding to the MusuraBay),situated northof Sulinadistributary,
prevailingwind direction,whilefrom east are recorded long,.witha very low, marshy li km
coast.A tendencyof
almost40o/oof swellwaves.The mean and maxrmum cloggingby the sedimentinputof Kilia
distributarvis
heightsof wind and sweltwaves(5.2 m at Constantza. reported.
7.0 m at Sulinaat the jettiesend)are higherfor the
easterndirectionfor whichthe wind fetchis maximum. 2. Sulinasection,
Southof Sulinadistributary,
The energyof stormwavesreachesimportantvalues: 8_ km long,with a complexbarrier about
beach,teO by tne
e.g. on 17-th of February1979 there was a storm eddy-like cunentgenerated by Sulinajetties,as wellas
characterised by 12,242kWh/m,whileusuallythe artificially,
withthesanddredged fromthe portof Sulina.

GEO-ECO-MARINA.4/1999 L-t
National lnstituteof Marine Geology and Geo_ecology
Proc. Intem- workshop on "Modernand Ancient SedlmentaryEnvironmeiis anabrocesses,,ln
Moeciu, Romania, oct. g-1s. lgg1
 N. Panin - Globai Changes, Sea Level Risingand the Danube Detta

30"00

45"00 r 5'\
\?l

ROMANIA

44"0$

Fig' 4 Romanian Black Sea ooast and the longshoresedment transport model for the Danube Delta
coast. The
sectionsdescribedin the text are shown on the figure (numbers1 to 11). Sedimentdrifi (arrows)and transport
rates in thousandsof cubjc meters pgr year (figures-by.thearrows).Ciicled + and - representidvancing
inO
retreatingsectionsrespectively(afterGiosanet al.,,lgg7\.

GEO-ECO.MARINA, 4/1999
Nationa!lnstitute of Marine Geotogyand Geo-ecology
Proc' lntern.workshopon "Madernand AncientsedimentaryEnvkonmeitsandprocesses"in
Moeciu,Romania,oct. B-Is. lggB
 N. Panin- GlobalChanges,Sea Level Risingand the DanubeDelta

Thissectoris slowlyprogradingnearthejetties(in its

paft)andis almostin equilibrium
nofthern in itscentral 3. Gdrlalmputita- CdslaVddaneisection, morethan
andsouthernparts(Fig.5). 15 km long, is characterised by negativesedimentary
budgetand unsaturated longshorecurrent(underthe
Sulinajettiesinfluence).In the last25 years,the coast
was permanently eroded, the beachregression beingof
5 - 30 mlyr(Fig.s).

4. ThesectionCdslaV6danei-St. Georgedistributary
mouth,morethan 13 Km long,represents the present
beach line of an ancient littoral accumulativebody
composedby the juxtaposition
(S6r6turile), of a very
impressive numberof old beach-ridges. The sectionis
characterisedby an activesouthward sedimentdriftand
temporary erosionalprocesses. Onlythe southernendof
'irr the section,situatedin the vicinityof the St. George
'ilr * distributary
mouthis relatively
stable.
t6
R
'l p
g&
$ 5. Sakhalinlslandsection,a lateralarcuatedbar,
$n { lying South of St. Georgedistributarymouth, is fed
*s a principally
by the St. Georgesedimentinput.The first
'$&s U) referenceaboutthe Sakhalinlslandis givenby Sprats
s maps and EuropeanCommissionof the Danube
s Y documents afterthe exceptional
1897flood.The island
'F
tB
is continuously
lengthening,
nowadays beingof about17
\s <( km long. At the same time the islandis migrating
is .J onshoreby ovenuashing: in certainyearsthe onshore
is
I e
movement wasupto 70 m (Fig.6).
tn.--E

s
s
c
c
s
i
s
s 0 1Km
s
d lsRr 19@, afterfre nFpof
s Roniniant-)e$. of
Fisl'reries
$r* 1952 after tf|a rnap of
$- MTO
3w 1960,atteraerop'Ktos

4.-...^" 194C,
aftsraeropfptos
1986,aftera6rophotc
Vadanei 5E

Fig.5 Theevolution of thecoastline

of theDanube
DeltaFrontin the Sulina-St.Georgesection
duringthe last century

The Sulina jetties, in accordancewith the initial

project of Charles Hartley from the European Danube
Commission(Hartley,1862; Rosettiet Rey, 1931),set
up in 1856,were intendedto facilitatethe navigationand
to protectthe mouthof the navigablecanalof the Sulina
arm from the Kilia-bornsediments,drifted southwardby
the littoral current along the shore. The jetties went on
buildingsince 1858,reachingin 1980a lengthof about8
km. These jetties are breakingthe southwardlongshore
drift of sediments brought into the littoralzone by the Fig.6 Evolutionof the modernSt.ceorgeDelta
Kiliadistributary. Additionallythey are takingoff fromthe andSakhalinbanierisland(fromGiosan
et a1.,1997\.
sedimentlittoralbudgetthe sedimentinputof the Sulina
arm by carrying it too far and too deep from the
shoreline.The jetties are creating a large eddyJike 6. The secondarySt. George delta section, being
littoral circulation cell, which strongly influences the shadowedby the Sakhalinlsland,is the beneficiaryof
distribution of the sedimentsall alongthe coast south of very special, energetically quiet conditions. The
jetties. distributariesof this delta are: the main arm is St.

GEO.ECO-MARINA.4/1999
National lnstltuteof Marine eeology and Geo-ecology
Proc. lntern, Workshopon "Modernand Ancient SedimentaryEnvironmentsand Processes"in Moeciu, Romania,Oct. &15, 1g9g

\-
 N. Panin - Global Changeg Sea Level Risingand the Danube Delta

George(Kedrilles),
the secondary arm,namedCdinelui,
at
dividedintoSeredne and Turculuidistributaries.
TheSt. 4. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA
at
al.
Georgesecondary deltafrontis prograding
andis LEVEL RISE ON THE ROMANIAN DANUBE
Ft
characterised
by veryfine-grainedsediments. DELTA SHORELINE
D
in
7. Ciotic-Perisor about20 km long,is subject
section, The global change and the sea level (SL) rise will ir
of verystrongerosion(10-20m/yr.) anda very certainlyaffect the state of the delta and coastal zone
t
negativelittoralbudgetof sediments.The coastline ecosystem.The impact will depend on synergeticeffect a
regressed since1950morethan500m and,thus,lakes of factors controllingthe deltaic and littoral processes
as ZitonulMarebecamebay openedtowardsthe sea, describedabove as well as on the delta plain and
afterquiteentiredestruction
of a narrowbarrierbeach. shorelineelevation,which can give us the basis for a
generalforecastingof possibleenvironmentalchanges
8 Perisor-Periteasca
section correspondsto the and floodingriskareas.
littoralaccumulative
bodyPerisor.The coastlineof this
sectionis almoststable,suffering5-10 m movements
o
2",(cm) I
o
I
Isacceo
Gal/f,e
t-
C@bl lzrrrail

I
ce,?arstceorge
Gauge nrlcea Gauge
nuf*
ra
|
i,llahmdia
&uge
|
UzlitE
(9tr@

T
Atnavatdranrd
&uge
I
rykrygg,!!st!9!ds
"1- glIE
lvat'fea o
E

$- .di
x

't-

I I I f;rI' $t
la-
f-;Ho&sb,
I ..4
'{sfr.rral levees
i ;
I
I
I
'gLT*o.J'f;L I
:
I I
is;rgogd";

RiverDanuhe

profileof theSt.George
Fig.7 Longitudinal distributary
rightbank(natural
leveeandprotection dykes)
andthe highof waterfreesurfaceat different
waterdischarges (afterBondaref a/.,2000).

back-and-forthdepending of wave energy level of the 4.1. Danube Delta Plain and sea shore zone
year.
considered hypsometry

9. Periteasca-Portitasection,15 km long,represents The marine delta plain is a very low area with
the beach barrier of the inter beach-ridgedepression marshes,lakesand numerousold beachridges,whichin
Leahovaand is characterisedby a very stronglongshore certain zones generate, by juxtaposition, large
driftandactiveerosionof the coast. accumulativelittoralbodies(the main of them are Letea,
Caraormanand Sdr6turile)(Fig.1).The interdistributary
'l0
Portita-Periboinasection,about 18 km long, is and inter beach-ridgedepressionsare lying only a few
the beachbarrierof the lagooncomplexRazim-Sinoie. lt cm above (and sometimeseven below)the SL, while the
is subjectof a strong erosion and intensivesouthward beach ridges have altitudesof few tens of cm to 1.7 m
longshoresediment drifr. The section is protectedby a above the sea level.The only more elevatedzones of
setbackline of embankmentslimitinglosses of beach the marine delta plain are the above mentioned
sandby ovenvashing. accumulativebodies,with mean heightsof about 1.0 -
1.5 m, and in certain places with dunes reaching
11, Chitucsection,about 20 km long, is a littoral altitudesup to 12 m.
accumulative bodybuiltup with the materialerodedfrom ln the fluvialdelta plainone notes as more elevated
the Cosna-Sinoie Delta.The coastlineof this sector is morphologicalelements the fluvial natural levees and
temporarilyeroded and is characterised by strong some old lacustrianspits (e.9. Stipoc).For example,the
longshore driftof beachsediments. natural levees heightsare starting near the river mouth

Lo GEOECO_MARiNA.4/1999
National lnstituteof Maine Geology and Geo-ecology
Proc.lntem.Workshopon "Modernand AncientSedimentaryEnvironmeiisand Processes'; in Moeciu,Romania,oct. g-15. lggg

r
 N. Panin - Global Changes,Sea Leyel Risrngand tha Danube Delta

at +20-30cm above SL, and finish at +450 cm above SL mean slopeof the free water surfacewithinthe delta
iEA at the deltaapex (Ceatal-lzmail) (Lepsi,1942,Eondare/ territoryhasa valueof 5.35cm/km(Fig.8).
IBE aL, 2A0Q (Fig.7).The interdistributary depressions(as For an easierappreciation of the river water free
Fortuna-Papadia, Matita-Merhei, Uzlina-Gorgova, tablewithinthe deltatenitoryone definethe so named
Dranov, Rosu-Luminaetc.) are characterisedby an 'hydro-degree", representing one tenth of the highest
will infinityof lakes of different size and depth. The water water level at a given point along the river course.
)ne inflow/outflowinto/from these depressions is realised Consequently, the hydro-degree has differentvaluesfor
ect trough numerous natural channels and crevasses, different zonesofthe deltaandalongthe riveras follows
ies artificialcanals and, at high waters, by overflowingthe (Lepsi,'1942): Sulina- 8.1 cm,Vilcov-'10 cm,Tulcea-
ind naturallevees. 47,7 cm, lsaccea- 54,2 cm, Galati- 64,4 cm, Br6ila-
a The present-daysandy beach barrieris also very low 69.3cm. The table2 pointsoutthe non-flooded areaat
res (the upperberms at +A.7- +1.5 m), the lowestsections different levelsof the RiverDanubewater.
being:Gdrla lmputita-CdslaVddanei,Ciotic-Perisorand
Portita-Periboina (see chapter3.2). These sectionsare 4.3.lmpactson rainfalland waterflow and
at the sametime,the most vulnerablezones of the delta resources
coastline.
The free water table within the delta depends of the
hydrological regime of the River Danube(Lepsi, 1942;
In accordance with the generallyacceptedmodels
Almazovet a1,,1963;Panin, '1992;Bondaret al.,2000\. the most important changesin the climatewouldbe the
At the mean lowest river water level, the free water northwardshift of climatezones, the lengtheningof
surfaceis slightlydeeping seaward from the delta head summerat the expense of otherseasons, the changes
(Ceatallzmail),where it is at about 44 cm above SL, to of wintercyclonicpatternsetc.
Tulceaat 39 cm and to Sulinaat 0 cm: its averageslope The modelsshow that the increaseof the mean
is of 0.54 cm/km, At the mean high water level, with the temperature by 1.50Cin theseconditions will determine
heightof the water at Tulcea of 293 cm above SL and at a decline withat least10%of the riverflowandthisfact
Sulinaof 49 cm, the mean slope of the free water table combined with a decreaseof waterenergyby the rising
is 3.3 cm/km.At the highestriverwater level(recordedin of the baselevelwill substantiallv lowerthe freshwater
1897),with the water level at Ceatal lzmail of 531 cm, at input intothe sea.
Tulceaol 477 cm and at Sulinaof 81 cm aboveSL. the

Table 2 Non-floodedareas withinthe DanubeDeltaat differentlevelsof the riverwater (after Lepsi,1942 with modifications)

Geomorphologic
Cafeooriec
Non flooded area (ha)
Lowestwaters Lowwaters Ordinary
waters Highestwaters
3 hvdro-deorees 4hd 5-6hd 1 oh d
Naturalfluviallevees 19.757 15,343 9,850
Lacustrinespits 3,005 2,607 2.210 30
Presentdav barrierbeach 2,400 2.390 2.380 1.800
Geomorphologic
Non floodedarea (ha)
Cateoories
Littoralaccumulativebodies. 26,215 x,811 21,410 10,000
of which:
- Letea(max.+'l2,6 m) 12,714 12 , 18 5 11,660 7,915
- Caraorman(max.+6.5m) 5,540 4,565 3,590 165
- Saraturile 5,465 4,990 4,51s 2,000
-7-7
TOTAL 72,542 62 13'l 51.045 1.7 E

Lesserand moreerraticprecipitation willreducethe of cummulated effectof the SL rising,wind set-up,the

groundwater rechargeand will disbalance the fresh shortageof beachfeedingby decreasedriver-borne
versusmarinewaterequilibrium. Despitean increased sediment input(especially of the RiverDanube)and,of
need for irrigationwater,the averagestoragein the coursethe anthropicpressureon the coast area.
reseruoirs will fall as a consequence of decreasedriver According to Bruuntheoryand formulasand usingthe
flowandparticipation andincreased evapo-transpiration. specificdatafor Romanian beaches we canfindaverage
Reduction of rainfallduringthe hotsummerperiodmight valuesfor coastrecession of 3-5m/yr.
causedeficiency in soil moisture,thus degrading soil The changeof the base energylevelwill diminish
structureand fertilityand finallyaffecting the agricultural significantly
thewaterandthe sediment dischargeof the
production. DanubeRiver.A veryroughmodelof the SL riseimpact
ontheDanube waterandsediment discharges withinthe
4.2. lmpactson the DanubeDeltaterritoryand deltaterritoryshows(Panin,1992)thata base-level rise
coastalzone. by 2G30 cm can be significant (inducingreductions
largerthan 10olo) only for free water table slopesless
fn responseto the forecasted for 2020-2030 SL rise than1.1cm/km(at a riverwaterlevelof two hydro-
with20-30cm,the regression of beaches will,obviously, degrees). Theperturbations produced by the base-level
continueall alongthe north-western and westernBlack risingcouldbe shortlypresented as follows:
Sea coast. Despitea not criticalvalueof SL rise,the - a rise of 20 cm of SL will producea decreaseof
impactonthe shorezonewillbe strongenoughbecause water dischargeby 1Oo/o at a free water table (FWT)

GEO-ECO-MAR[NA,4/1999 21
National lnstifutaof Maine Geology and Geo-ecology
Proc. lntem- Workshop on "Modernand AncientSedimentaryEnvironmentsandProcesses" in Moeciu, Romania, OcL &15, 1998
 N. Panin - Global Changes,Sea Level Risingand the Danube Delta

b
d

t
I
I

Fig.I lsolinesofthefreewatersurfacein the DanubeDeltaat a riverwaterdischarge

of 15,000m3.sl
(afterBondaref a/.,2000).

sfope of 1.143 cm/km and by 260/oat a FWT slope of
0.54 cm/km (at the lowest water level), the current
vefocitywill decrease by 12o/oand respectively28,6 o/o
and, correspondingly its sedimenttransportcapacitywill
decline;
- a rise by 30 cm of SL will producea decreaseof the
water dischargeby 160/o for a FWT slope of 1.'143cm/km
and by 47o/ofor that of 0.57 cm/km. The mean current
velocitywill decreaseby 19o/oand respectively50o/o.
The reduced fresh water input would influencethe
general salinity of the Black Sea especiallywhen the
generalSL will rise continuously.That involve a greater
supplyof saline Mediterraneanwater by the bottom
Bosphorous currentand a decreaseof the thicknessof
thelesssalinesuperficial layerof the BlackSea.
At the Danube distributariesmouth zone the
penetration of the saltwedgedeeperupstream intotheir
course will create a significantdisturbancein the
processes oftransferof bed-load to themouthbarand
furtherto thelittoralzone.Thediminished sediment input
wouldinducea greaterdeficitin the sedimentary budget
of the littoralzone.
As regardsthe deltaicshore,a rise of SL by 20-30
cm corresponds to an equivalent riverwaterrisewith of
at least 34 hydro-degrees. This means that a very
extended areaof the deltanearbvthe shorezonewould

GEO-ECO-MARIN A, 4/1I 99
National lnstituteof Marine Geology and Geo-ecology
Proc.lntem.Workshopon "ModernandAncientSedimentary
Environments
andProcesses"
in Moeciu,Romania,Oct.&1 5, 1998
 N. Panln - GtobalChanges,Sea Level Riing andthe Danube Delta

be floodedand also greaterflood risks on the entire CAslaVddaneisectionwhichcorresponds to the Rosu-

willoccur(Panin,1992).
deltaterritory
The deltaic coast will be reshapedby marine
processes, but in the morevulnerablesectionsas G6rla
lmputita-CdslaV6danei, Ciotic-Perisorand Portita-
Periboinaconditionswill be gatheredto transformthe
corresponding intradeltaicdepressionor lagoonareas
into bays.Such risk is greaterin the G6rla lmputita-
Luminainterdistributarydepressionand Ciotic-Perisor
section and lesser in the Portiia-Periboina zone
(corresponding to the lagooncomplexRazim-Sinoie)
wherethe beachbarrieris at presentprotectedby a
setbackline of embankments limitinglossesof beach
materialby ovenivashing.

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National lnstituteof Maine Geology and Geo-ecology
Proa. lntem. Workshop on "Modernand Ancient SedimentaryEnvironmentsand Processes"in Moeciu, Romania, OcL 8-15, 1998
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