ENGINEERING STATISTICS

MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Submitted To: Prof. Dr. Sadia Farid

Submitted By: Mr. Shadman Ali (2017-ME-192)

DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL

ENGINEERING

UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND

TECHNOLOGY, LAHORE

(DECEMBER 13, 2019)

 Assignment engineering statistics
(Multinomial distribution)
1. Definition:
Outcomes Probability distribution from a multinomial experiment is called multinomial
distribution.

2. Multinomial experiment:
An experiment having:
 Infinite number of trials which are repeated.
 Possible outcomes are discrete from every trial.
 Probability of an outcome is constant in a trial.
 The trials did not depend on each other.
all these properties are called multinomial experiment.

3. Examples:
1. Distribution of an industry products as small, large and medium is a multinomial
distribution.
2. To select a student from out section when replacement is allowed.
3. Rolling a dice for three times constitute sample space which give us multinomial
distribution.

Note:
A multinomial distribution becomes BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION if a trial from an experiment
restricted to two possible outcomes.
 4. Derivation of formula for multinomial distribution:
Generally, if a trial resulting with k possible outcomes E1, E2, ………. EK having probabilities P1,
P2……. PK, the multinomial distribution provide probability that E1 occurs X1, E2, X2 and EK XK
times in n independent trials, then we have:

X1 + X2 + XK +……... = n ……...(i)

Then joint probability distribution will be written as;

f (X1, X2… XK; P1, P2……. PK, n) ……. (ii)

where, P1+P2+……. +PK = 1.

To have a general formula for multinomial distribution as we said earlier that trials are not
dependent on each other. Since because of their independency, any order will give X1 for E1, X2,
E2 ……. XK, for EK having probability P1X1, P2X2……... PKXK. Total numbers giving same
outcomes for n trials will be equal to number o division of n number to K groups along with X1
in first up to XK in Kth group. It can also be written as:

n!
X 1! . X 2 ! … … . X k ! ……………………. (iii)

As all the divisions are not mutually inclusive and did with equal probability then we will get the
multinomial distribution when multiplying probability for an order with all number of divisions.

Now we are in position to get final equation for multinomial distribution.

MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION: when a trial given result in K outcomes E1, E2, ………. EK
having probabilities P1, P2……. PK, then distribution of probability for random variables X1, X2,
……, XK showing occurrence number of E1, E2, ………. EK for n independent trials is:

n!
f (X1, X2… XK; P1, P2……. PK, n) = (P X1, P2X2……... PKXK)
X 1! . X 2 ! … … . X k ! 1
……. (iv)

5. NUMERICAL PROBLEM:
A Computer Numerical Control (CNC) Machine in steel works industry at chamfer
programming cutting metal into pieces for different types of BOLTS FOR NUTS into four
different shapes square, hexagon, fillister and flat undercut with probabilities 0.4, 0.2,0.3 and 0.1
respectively. What is the probability that 9 pieces randomly selected from the metal pieces 3 are
square, 3 hexagonal, 1 fillister and 2 are flat undercut?

Solution:
As we have four different outcomes so it is a multinomial distribution.
Probability of square = PS = 0.4
Probability of hexagon = PH = 0.2
Probability of fillister = Pf = 0.3
Probability of flat undercut = Pfc = 0.1
Total pieces to be selected = n = 9

Now using formula

n!
f (X1, X2… XK; P1, P2……. PK, n) = (P1X1, P2X2……... PKXK
X 1! . X 2 ! … … . X k !

9!
= f (3,3,1,2; 0.4, 0.2,0.3,0.1, 9) = ( )(0.4)3. (0.2)3. (0.3). (0.1)2
3! 3! 1 ! 2 !
= f (3,3,1,2; 0.1, 0.2,0.4,0.3, 9) = 5040 × 1.536×10-6 = (0.0077) answer