Coffee in The US: Euromonitor International December 2020

Coffee in the US
Euromonitor International
December 2020
COFFEE IN THE US Passport i
LIST OF CONTENTS AND TABLES

KEY DATA FINDINGS.................................................................................................................. 1
2020 IMPACT ............................................................................................................................... 1
More coffee consumption occasions in the home cannot offset on-trade decline ..................... 1
Disruption of on-trade premiumisation trend, which moves into the home................................ 1
Sustainability and organic certifications temporarily cease to attract consumers ..................... 2
RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES .......................................................................................... 2
Long-term shift towards off-trade consumption occasions ........................................................ 2
Return to on-trade growth likely to be hampered in the forecast period.................................... 3
Success of coffee shop brands likely to continue ..................................................................... 3
CATEGORY DATA ....................................................................................................................... 4
Table 1 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Volume 2015-2020 .............................. 4
Table 2 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Value 2015-2020 ................................. 4
Table 3 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020 ............. 5
Table 4 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020 ................ 5
Table 5 Retail Sales of Fresh Coffee by Regular vs Decaffeinated: % Volume
2015-2020 .................................................................................................... 5
Table 6 Retail Sales of Fresh Ground Coffee Pods by Hard vs Soft: % Volume
2015-2020 .................................................................................................... 6
Table 7 NBO Company Shares of Coffee: % Retail Value 2016-2020 ...................... 6
Table 8 LBN Brand Shares of Coffee: % Retail Value 2017-2020 ............................ 6
Table 9 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Volume 2020-2025 ............... 7
Table 10 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Value 2020-2025 .................. 8
Table 11 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-
2025 ............................................................................................................. 8
Table 12 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Value Growth 2020-
2025 ............................................................................................................. 9
Table 13 Forecast Retail Sales of Fresh Coffee by Regular vs Decaffeinated: %
Volume 2020-2025 ....................................................................................... 9
© Euromonitor International
COFFEE IN THE US Passport 1
COFFEE IN THE US
KEY DATA FINDINGS
▪ Coffee suffers from a widespread loss of on-trade consumption occasions due to disruption to
this channel from COVID-19 in 2020, with higher off-trade consumption unable to prevent a
total volume decline
▪ Off-trade current value sales of coffee increase by 5% in 2020 to reach USD14.9 billion, whilst
off-trade volume sales increase by 4% to reach 820,783 tonnes
▪ On-trade volume sales of coffee see a steep sales decline in 2020, falling by 32% to reach
128,947 tonnes, contributing to a total volume decline of 3%
▪ Keurig Dr Pepper maintains its leading position in coffee in 2020, with a 22% off-trade value
share
▪ Over the forecast period, off-trade sales of coffee are expected to increase by a current value
CAGR of 3% (1% 2020 constant value CAGR), and off-trade volume sales are expected to
increase by a CAGR of 1%, to reach USD17.2 billion and 853,586 tonnes
2020 IMPACT
More coffee consumption occasions in the home cannot offset on-trade

decline
After a couple of years of slow but stable off-trade volume and current value growth, in 2020
coffee has seen higher growth rates. This is mainly due to the lockdowns in different states at
different times of the year to limit the spread of COVID-19. These involved the closure of
foodservice outlets, including cafés and bars, which led a massive amount of coffee drinking to
shift to the off-trade channel. Some consumers also stockpiled coffee for fear of shortages.
Although foodservice has therefore lost many consumption occasions, mitigated somewhat by
delivery, takeout and drive-through ordering, institutional channels have also seen major losses.
Some channels, such as hospitals, avoided decline, but others, such as offices and schools, in
many cases were shut down for at least some of the year, moving the coffee consumption that
usually occurs in these places elsewhere. A small percentage of these occasions have moved
into the still-operating sections of foodservice, but most sales have moved to the off-trade
channel, contributing to a strong increase in the growth rates in both off-trade volume and
current value terms in 2020. On-trade sales, however, have seen a significant volume decline as
a result. US consumers have very high rates of coffee consumption between home, office,
school and foodservice. Whilst the loss of many on-trade consumption occasions has translated
into higher off-trade sales growth, some occasions have been completely lost, and total volume
sales have therefore declined in 2020.
Disruption of on-trade premiumisation trend, which moves into the home

In recent years, coffee in the US became reliant on coffee shop-driven premiumisation.
Consumers, who had rising incomes for the last decade, learned about value-added approaches
to coffee at coffee shops, and then brought this increased appreciation for premium coffee into
other foodservice and retail occasions. The temporary, and sometimes permanent, shuttering of
many coffee shops in 2020 and a drop in consumer incomes meant that this model could not
continue without major modifications. Consumers remained interested in premium coffee, but
economic concerns were also a priority. As a result, average unit prices have risen in the off-
trade channel in 2020, after several years of decline, as consumers tried to recreate a premium
coffee experience at home.
In terms of categories, this has meant a stronger off-trade volume growth rate for fresh coffee,
especially fresh ground coffee pods, than for instant coffee. The latter is also a much smaller
category, with such products purchased mainly by lower-income consumers as a cheap
alternative to standard ground coffee. The move to more premium products has also led to a
trend towards coffee shop brands, which are most often premium-priced, and through which
consumers have tried to recreate the on-trade experience and flavour at home. For instance,
branded coffee pods from Starbucks (from category leader Keurig Dr Pepper) and Dunkin’
Donuts (from second-placed The JM Smucker Co), and the premium Nespresso brand (from
third-placed Nestlé), have seen some of the highest growth rates amongst coffee brands in off-
trade value terms in 2020. Most brands have also seen a drop in unit prices, as consumers
chose larger pack sizes and multipacks, although the higher rate of premium coffee purchases
has contributed to a modest increase in off-trade unit prices. Nevertheless, some level of
polarisation has been seen, as at the other end of the spectrum consumers have moved
towards the cheapest products, including private label lines. With job losses and lower incomes
due to COVID-19, some consumers became particularly price-conscious, which has increased
the combined share of private label in 2020. Brands in the middle have suffered falling shares
as a result.
Sustainability and organic certifications temporarily cease to attract

consumers
Due to the tightening of purse strings, in 2020 value-added attributes within coffee have
ceased to draw in as many consumers as in previous years. Most of these attributes focus on
sustainability, such as Rainforest Alliance and fair trade certifications. This has become
apparent through declines in the organic coffee segment. Whilst off-trade sales of coffee have
favoured premium brands, the focus has been on brand familiarity and perceived quality rather
than secondary attributes that have to do with eco-friendliness and sustainability. Organic coffee
saw sustained growth for the past few years as consumers became interested in sustainability
within the mature coffee category. However, in 2020 the segment has seen a steep decline.
Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and economic decline, consumers’ priorities have changed.
Whilst they have still looked for a premium coffee experience at home, due to a lack of on-trade
occasions, this has favoured more mainstream coffee shop brands, whilst the premium organic
segment has lagged as these brands do not have such strong recognition. The disruption in
sales of products with sustainability-focused attributes, however, is not expected to continue for
long. Trends favouring eco-friendly solutions across all consumer categories are far too strong
and pressing to lose relevance in the longer-term; indeed, the organic coffee segment is
expected to see sustained growth once again in the forecast period.
RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES
Long-term shift towards off-trade consumption occasions

Off-trade volume and current value growth rates are set to slow in 2021, as consumption
occasions shift back to the on-trade channel, but they will remain above previous baselines due
to consumers’ enduring price-consciousness. Consumers do not stop drinking coffee in
recessions, but they do look for ways to do so more affordably, and the single most common
way they can do that is by increasing their at-home consumption occasions at the expense of
buying coffee in foodservice. However, even though off-trade sales of coffee are generally quite
stable, given both its relative affordability as well as importance to consumers, by the end of the
forecast period even off-trade growth rates are set to turn to decline due to maturity and the
return to on-trade, whilst value sales are expected to continue to rise as consumers turn to
better-quality coffee. For this reason, fresh coffee is expected to see a positive off-trade volume
CAGR in the forecast period, whilst instant coffee is set to return to decline in 2021, and this is
set to continue for the rest of the forecast period. As in 2020, fresh ground coffee pods is
forecast to see the best performance, as along with quality, consumers will continue to demand
convenience. The continued off-trade growth at the beginning of the forecast period, combined
with a return to on-trade consumption, will ensure a return to the pre-COVID-19 level of total
volume sales of coffee as early as 2021.
Return to on-trade growth likely to be hampered in the forecast period

The return to foodservice will also lead to a strong return to growth for on-trade volume sales
in 2021. However, the permanent closure of many foodservice outlets, as well as a strong
consumer desire to save money in what will likely still be a very shaky economy, will keep many
coffee drinkers in the off-trade channel for the longer-term. In addition, any further waves of
COVID-19 could lead to further state-level lockdown restrictions and therefore deeper recession,
and there would also be a greater hesitation on the part of consumers to enter public places,
hampering the return to growth. A deep recession would fall far more heavily on the already
burdened on-trade channel than the off-trade channel. A return to the level of sales seen in
2019, before the pandemic, is not likely even by the end of the forecast period, despite the
expectation of volume growth throughout the forecast period. However, much depends on the
timing and length of rollout of any vaccine for the virus.
The loss of share for the on-trade channel will also seriously weaken the role of coffee shops
as the shaper of trends in coffee in the US, as comfort and reliability gain importance over
novelty and experimentation. The coffee shops landscape is also likely to see a more
permanent change. Many chains have shifted focus towards pick-up, drive through and delivery,
and this is set to endure even after the pandemic ends. Meanwhile in the off-trade channel e-
commerce has seen explosive growth within coffee in 2020, and the reliance on online
purchasing will continue to expand, as consumers grow accustomed to the convenience.
Success of coffee shop brands likely to continue

Coffee shop brands have been pulling ahead in terms of growth across fresh coffee
categories. This was particularly seen in 2020 in light of the pandemic, when consumers turned
to recreating the quality of foodservice coffees in their own homes, and retrenched to well-
known brands. Starbucks and Dunkin’ Donuts stores dominate the coffee shops channel,
winning in terms of share and growth. Peet’s, whilst smaller, has also established a name for
itself. Part of the success of these brands in the off-trade channel is their ventures across all
coffee formats, as all three also have successful RTD offerings, in addition to fresh ground
coffee and fresh ground coffee pods. Their presence on-trade has established brand recognition
and loyalty amongst consumers, who are more likely to reach for a retail coffee with which they
are already familiar and whose quality they can rely on. They are expected to cement their
strong positions in the forecast period as the consumer return to foodservice is set to be
protracted, whilst consumers will still want to recreate the same tastes at home at a cheaper
price.
CATEGORY DATA
Table 1 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Volume 2015-2020
Tonnes
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fresh Coffee 757,654.9 755,481.6 742,573.8 753,737.4 763,622.9 797,950.8

- Fresh Coffee Beans 50,225.5 52,274.4 51,283.4 52,544.4 54,029.9 55,072.8
- Fresh Ground Coffee 707,429.4 703,207.2 691,290.5 701,193.0 709,593.0 742,878.0
-- Fresh Ground Coffee 66,567.1 75,162.2 78,063.4 83,605.9 88,878.8 95,469.3
Pods
-- Standard Fresh 640,862.3 628,045.0 613,227.0 617,587.1 620,714.3 647,408.7
Ground Coffee
Instant Coffee 24,691.7 24,067.5 23,012.4 22,469.2 22,498.8 22,831.8
- Instant Standard Coffee 18,346.6 18,323.6 17,752.6 17,470.4 17,765.4 18,333.4
-- Regular Instant 14,786.2 14,785.3 14,246.1 14,103.4 14,517.1 15,165.9
Standard Coffee
-- Decaffeinated 3,560.4 3,538.3 3,506.5 3,367.1 3,248.3 3,167.4
Instant Standard Coffee
- Instant Coffee Mixes 6,345.1 5,743.9 5,259.8 4,998.8 4,733.4 4,498.5
-- Regular Instant 6,096.4 5,506.8 5,027.5 4,776.0 4,530.4 4,301.5
Coffee Mixes
-- Decaffeinated 248.7 237.1 232.2 222.8 203.0 197.0
Instant Coffee Mixes
Coffee 782,346.6 779,549.1 765,586.2 776,206.6 786,121.7 820,782.6
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources
Table 2 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Value 2015-2020
USD million
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fresh Coffee 12,593.4 13,101.7 13,115.0 13,251.1 13,334.2 14,042.4

Pods
-- Standard Fresh 6,902.1 6,938.8 6,803.5 6,733.0 6,653.1 6,909.9
Ground Coffee
Instant Coffee 880.5 871.9 838.9 821.2 816.4 824.5
- Instant Standard Coffee 657.4 668.4 645.8 637.3 641.0 657.5
-- Regular Instant 540.0 553.6 535.5 529.6 536.2 554.9
Standard Coffee
-- Decaffeinated 117.4 114.7 110.2 107.7 104.8 102.6
- Instant Coffee Mixes 223.1 203.5 193.2 183.9 175.4 167.1
-- Regular Instant 214.6 195.6 185.6 176.6 168.8 160.9
Coffee Mixes
-- Decaffeinated 8.5 7.9 7.6 7.2 6.6 6.2
Coffee 13,473.9 13,973.6 13,954.0 14,072.3 14,150.6 14,866.9
Table 3 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020
% volume growth
2019/20 2015-20 CAGR 2015/20 Total
Fresh Coffee 4.5 1.0 5.3

- Fresh Coffee Beans 1.9 1.9 9.7
- Fresh Ground Coffee 4.7 1.0 5.0
-- Fresh Ground Coffee Pods 7.4 7.5 43.4
-- Standard Fresh Ground Coffee 4.3 0.2 1.0
Instant Coffee 1.5 -1.6 -7.5
- Instant Standard Coffee 3.2 0.0 -0.1
-- Regular Instant Standard Coffee 4.5 0.5 2.6
-- Decaffeinated Instant Standard Coffee -2.5 -2.3 -11.0
- Instant Coffee Mixes -5.0 -6.6 -29.1
-- Regular Instant Coffee Mixes -5.1 -6.7 -29.4
-- Decaffeinated Instant Coffee Mixes -3.0 -4.6 -20.8
Coffee 4.4 1.0 4.9
Table 4 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
% current value growth

2019/20 2015-20 CAGR 2015/20 Total

Instant Coffee 1.0 -1.3 -6.4
- Instant Standard Coffee 2.6 0.0 0.0
-- Regular Instant Standard Coffee 3.5 0.5 2.8
Coffee 5.1 2.0 10.3
Table 5 Retail Sales of Fresh Coffee by Regular vs Decaffeinated: % Volume 2015-2020
% retail volume
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Decaffeinated 5.5 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.0

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Regular 94.5 94.8 94.9 95.1 95.4 96.0
Note: Totals may not sum to 100% due to data rounding
Table 6 Retail Sales of Fresh Ground Coffee Pods by Hard vs Soft: % Volume 2015-
2020
% retail volume
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Hard Coffee Pods 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Soft Coffee Pods 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Table 7 NBO Company Shares of Coffee: % Retail Value 2016-2020
% retail value rsp

Company 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc 0.7 0.8 22.4 21.9 22.3

JM Smucker Co, The 13.6 13.1 12.4 11.9 11.8
Nestlé USA Inc 2.2 2.2 10.5 10.6 10.5
Kraft Heinz Co 6.6 6.4 5.8 5.3 5.0
Nestlé SA 1.9 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.6
Peet's Coffee & Tea Inc 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.4
Eight O'Clock Coffee Co 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
Community Coffee Co LLC 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Massimo Zanetti 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8
Beverage USA
Keurig Green Mountain Inc 22.2 21.8 - - -
Starbucks Corp 7.9 8.3 - - -
Sara Lee Corp - - - - -
Kraft Foods Inc - - - - -
Green Mountain Coffee - - - - -
Roasters Inc
Kraft Foods Group Inc - - - - -
Mondelez International - - - - -
Inc
Private Label 9.4 10.6 11.4 12.2 12.9
Others 30.7 29.6 29.7 29.9 28.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Table 8 LBN Brand Shares of Coffee: % Retail Value 2017-2020
% retail value rsp

Brand (GBO) Company (NBO) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Folgers JM Smucker Co, The 9.9 9.2 8.7 8.6

Starbucks (Nestlé SA) Nestlé USA Inc - 7.0 7.2 7.2
Starbucks (Nestlé SA) Keurig Dr Pepper Inc - 5.3 5.5 5.9
Maxwell House Kraft Heinz Co 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.7
Nespresso Nestlé SA 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.6
Green Mountain Keurig Dr Pepper Inc - 3.6 3.5 3.6
Dunkin' Donuts JM Smucker Co, The 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
(Dunkin' Brands
Group Inc)
Peet's Coffee (JDE Peet's Coffee & Tea Inc - - - 2.4

Peet's BV)
Dunkin' Donuts (JM Keurig Dr Pepper Inc - 2.1 2.2 2.3
Smucker Co, The)
Donut Shop Keurig Dr Pepper Inc - 1.9 1.7 1.6
Maxwell House Keurig Dr Pepper Inc - 1.7 1.6 1.6
(Kraft Heinz Co)
Folgers (JM Smucker Keurig Dr Pepper Inc - 1.5 1.4 1.5
Co, The)
Nescafé Taster's Nestlé USA Inc 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Choice (Nestlé SA)
Eight O'Clock (Tata Eight O'Clock Coffee Co - - - 1.1
Consumer Products
Ltd)
Gevalia (Kraft Keurig Dr Pepper Inc - 1.1 1.1 1.0
Heinz Co)
Community Coffee Community Coffee Co LLC 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Nescafé (Nestlé SA) Nestlé USA Inc 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Eight O'Clock (Tata Keurig Dr Pepper Inc - - - 0.9
Consumer Products
Ltd)
Gevalia Kraft Heinz Co 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7
Seattle's Best Nestlé USA Inc - 0.8 0.7 0.7
Coffee (Nestlé SA)
Newman's Own Keurig Dr Pepper Inc - 0.6 0.5 0.5
(Newman's Own Inc)
Starbucks Via Ready Nestlé USA Inc - 0.5 0.5 0.5
Brew (Nestlé SA)
Chock Full O'Nuts Massimo Zanetti 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
(Massimo Zanetti Beverage USA
Beverage Group SpA)
Caribou Coffee Keurig Dr Pepper Inc - 0.4 0.4 0.4
(Caribou Coffee Co
Inc)
Maxwell House Café Kraft Heinz Co 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3
International Coffees
Hills Brothers Massimo Zanetti 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
(Massimo Zanetti Beverage USA
Beverage Group SpA)
Tully's Coffee Keurig Dr Pepper Inc - 0.4 0.3 0.3
(Tully's Coffee Corp)
Yuban Kraft Heinz Co 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Starbucks Starbucks Corp 6.9 - - -
Starbucks Keurig Green Mountain Inc 5.0 - - -
(Starbucks Corp)
Private label Private Label 10.6 11.4 12.2 12.9
Others Others 52.1 37.4 37.6 32.1
Total Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Table 9 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Volume 2020-2025
Tonnes
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Fresh Coffee 797,950.8 825,098.6 837,237.4 840,029.0 837,644.0 832,314.4


Pods
-- Standard Fresh 647,408.7 669,800.9 678,945.8 679,947.1 676,190.5 669,776.9
Ground Coffee
Instant Coffee 22,831.8 22,815.5 22,573.2 22,143.8 21,696.6 21,271.7
- Instant Standard Coffee 18,333.4 18,419.7 18,333.0 18,027.8 17,702.4 17,403.1
-- Regular Instant 15,165.9 15,367.7 15,380.6 15,178.6 14,957.1 14,760.0
Standard Coffee
-- Decaffeinated 3,167.4 3,052.1 2,952.4 2,849.2 2,745.4 2,643.2
- Instant Coffee Mixes 4,498.5 4,395.7 4,240.3 4,115.9 3,994.1 3,868.5
-- Regular Instant 4,301.5 4,203.0 4,053.0 3,934.6 3,818.7 3,699.2
Coffee Mixes
-- Decaffeinated 197.0 192.8 187.3 181.3 175.4 169.4
Coffee 820,782.6 847,914.1 859,810.6 862,172.8 859,340.6 853,586.1
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources
Table 10 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Value 2020-2025
USD million
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Fresh Coffee 14,042.4 14,499.4 14,754.5 14,864.4 14,905.7 14,904.4

Pods
-- Standard Fresh 6,909.9 7,108.9 7,191.5 7,191.3 7,140.8 7,062.5
Ground Coffee
Instant Coffee 824.5 820.5 810.2 793.1 775.2 758.3
- Instant Standard Coffee 657.5 657.9 653.9 642.0 629.4 617.7
-- Regular Instant 554.9 559.4 558.8 550.4 541.4 533.3
Standard Coffee
-- Decaffeinated 102.6 98.5 95.1 91.6 88.0 84.4
- Instant Coffee Mixes 167.1 162.5 156.3 151.1 145.9 140.6
-- Regular Instant 160.9 156.6 150.7 145.8 140.9 135.8
Coffee Mixes
-- Decaffeinated 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.7
Coffee 14,866.9 15,319.9 15,564.7 15,657.5 15,681.0 15,662.7
trade sources
Table 11 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
% volume growth
2020/21 2020-25 CAGR 2020/25 Total

Instant Coffee -0.1 -1.4 -6.8
- Instant Standard Coffee 0.5 -1.0 -5.1

-- Regular Instant Standard Coffee 1.3 -0.5 -2.7
Coffee 3.3 0.8 4.0
trade sources
Table 12 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025
% constant value growth

2020/2021 2020-25 CAGR 2020/25 Total

Instant Coffee -0.5 -1.7 -8.0
- Instant Standard Coffee 0.1 -1.2 -6.0
-- Regular Instant Standard Coffee 0.8 -0.8 -3.9
Coffee 3.0 1.0 5.4
trade sources
Table 13 Forecast Retail Sales of Fresh Coffee by Regular vs Decaffeinated: % Volume

2020-2025
% retail volume
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Decaffeinated 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Regular 96.0 96.3 96.4 96.5 96.6 96.7

Coffee in The US: Euromonitor International December 2020

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Coffee in The US: Euromonitor International December 2020

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Coffee in the US

LIST OF CONTENTS AND TABLES

More coffee consumption occasions in the home cannot offset on-trade

Disruption of on-trade premiumisation trend, which moves into the home

Sustainability and organic certifications temporarily cease to attract

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Long-term shift towards off-trade consumption occasions

Return to on-trade growth likely to be hampered in the forecast period

Success of coffee shop brands likely to continue

Fresh Coffee 757,654.9 755,481.6 742,573.8 753,737.4 763,622.9 797,950.8

Table 2 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Value 2015-2020

Fresh Coffee 12,593.4 13,101.7 13,115.0 13,251.1 13,334.2 14,042.4

Table 3 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020

Fresh Coffee 4.5 1.0 5.3

Table 4 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020

% current value growth

Fresh Coffee 5.3 2.2 11.5

Table 5 Retail Sales of Fresh Coffee by Regular vs Decaffeinated: % Volume 2015-2020

Decaffeinated 5.5 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.0

Hard Coffee Pods 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Table 7 NBO Company Shares of Coffee: % Retail Value 2016-2020

% retail value rsp

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc 0.7 0.8 22.4 21.9 22.3

Table 8 LBN Brand Shares of Coffee: % Retail Value 2017-2020

% retail value rsp

Folgers JM Smucker Co, The 9.9 9.2 8.7 8.6

Peet's Coffee (JDE Peet's Coffee & Tea Inc - - - 2.4

Table 9 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Volume 2020-2025

Fresh Coffee 797,950.8 825,098.6 837,237.4 840,029.0 837,644.0 832,314.4

-- Fresh Ground Coffee 95,469.3 99,295.1 101,614.4 102,984.7 104,094.0 104,949.0

Table 10 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Value 2020-2025

Fresh Coffee 14,042.4 14,499.4 14,754.5 14,864.4 14,905.7 14,904.4

Table 11 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025

Fresh Coffee 3.4 0.8 4.3

- Instant Standard Coffee 0.5 -1.0 -5.1

Table 12 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

% constant value growth

Fresh Coffee 3.3 1.2 6.1

Table 13 Forecast Retail Sales of Fresh Coffee by Regular vs Decaffeinated: % Volume

Decaffeinated 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3

You might also like