6.4.

Visions of future Distribution Systems

Sten Bergman
Program Director
Transmission & Distribution
ELFORSK AB, Sweden

Abstract:
A future vision of the electrical transmission and distribution systlem is discussed in this paper. The
content is based on the results from the ELFORSK project - Vision 21 performed during 1995-1996,
where over 100 creative idCas were recieved from 45 participators. The: visions are describing both system
aspects, new business concepts, advanced components and customer services 20 - 30 years ahead. This
paper highlights and comments some of the visions. A brief ana1:ysis of some benfit value is also
presented.

Keywords: Research and development, future visions, creative study, electricity, transmission, distribution,
new materials, information technology, AC, DC, power quality, energy storage

End-use of electricity should be possible

T aking a look back 20-30 years ago, most
of us could not imagine the dramatic
impact of computers and new materials.
There were in fact almost no microprocessors and
no power electronic devices at all in the power
network. It is therefore quite difficult to predict
what can be the situation an equal time ahead.
Vision 21 a collaborative creative study
In 1995 ELFORSK, the Swedish utilities
common R&D company, initiated a visionary
project, aiming at coordination of creative
thinking to formulate desirable goals for common
R&D in the future. The target was the T&D
system after year 2010. Invited into this process
were the R&D community represented by the
Swedish governmental organization NUTEK and
the world leading manufacturer ABB Power
SystemdABB Corporate Research, the
universities, technical consultants and experts in
the electrical utilities.
Focusing on new possibilities
Vision 21 focused on generic and global
problems and possibilities. Some key issues were
chosen as guidelines in the project. The key
issues were rather simple. E:g. "What would be
needed to achieve the following ?'
Transmission and distribution of electricity
should be performed by reducing losses to
50% of today's losses.
Key components should be reduced in
weight and volume by at least 50%.
without any significant risk of health.
Injuries and accidents related to electricity
should be reduced by 50%.
Storage of electricity with a return
efficiency better than 90% should be
possible
The study concentrated on the transmission and
distribution questions only. (Another study were
recently performed looking into the future energy
system [l]).
The visions albout the future, described in [2] are
divided into four sections. The first section
describes the power network and its main
components. The second section describes the
new business; as it can be envisioned today. The
third section, conceming improved power quality
describes new components and new topologies
and the fourth section elaborates on new electrical
storage technologies. Some of the visions from
Vision 21 are highlighted and commented here:
Flexible electrical power networks:
V i s i o n : "In the future the electrical networks
look different from today. The power network is
much more flexible and at the same time more
complex. We have e.g. introduced more DC
technologies and power electronics in order to
cope with stronger environmental standards, but
also to secure transmission and distribution
capability to establish a free electricity market.
The network include most of Europe.

ClRED 97,2-5 June 1997, Conference Publication No. 438, 0 IEE, 1997
 6.4.2
In urban areas power networks are typically
cablified and/or using compacted DC transmission
systems. New insulating towers have been
designed from advanced composite materials and
they are well integrated into the environment.”
C o m m e n t : A deregulated electricity market is
only possible if network constraints are removed.
Flexibility in transmission and distribution over
time and space is therefore a necessity for a ”free”
market to be fully developed.
New materials and design methods:
V i si o n : ”By advanced electrical insulation
technology and new design principles electrical
equipment is manufactured in dimensions much
smaller than today. The power network can by
this withstand much higher environmental hazards
than today. Over-voltage and induced currents are
suppressed to acceptable levels by new EMC-
control methodologies. The new flexible
networks are easier to control, they allow single
phase failures without any degradation in power
supply, and they gives the consumers higher
power quality, with less interruptions, less
noise, flicker, swell etc. DC technologies gives
in general higher efficiencies and thus also acts
for a better environment.
Far ahead we assume that quite new conducting
materials are developed. Most likely there are
light-weight polymeric conductors, with better
conductivity than FeIA1, showing less corrosion
and require almost no maintenance”.
Comment: Some important R&D projects are
already under v, ay. One example is a competence
program called ELEKTRA [3], now supporting
about 45 Ph.D students at Swedish universities.
The author discussing an R b D project with a
PhD student at the Royal Institute of Technology
Another program for basic research in High
Voltage outdoor insulation technology (ISOLDE)
is under progress [4]. A coordinated nordic
program for applied high temperature
superconductivity, research activities concerning
advanced battery concepts and studies concerning
new fexible networks using both AC- and DC are
also under formulation.
Silicon Carbide Power Electronics:
V i s i o n : ”The AC networks can be flexible
controlled through semi-conducting IGBT or GTO
devices (FACTS). Devices, that in the future
mainly are designed from silicon carbide
materials, thus allowing high temperature
operation without expensive forced cooling. The
future power system, based on both AC and DC
are utilizing super conductive transformers in its
AC parts needs another type of protection against
failures. It will not be accepted to disconnect large
areas due to e.g. short circuits. New types of fault
current limiters and fault controllers are
introduced. Some related to super conductive
technology and others relaying on new semi-
conducting polymeric materials.
C o m m e n t : A strategic research program
(SiCEPS) has newly been established in Sweden.
Researchers at Universities and Industry are now
exploring the basic theory, synthesis and design
of power electronic components, based on Silicon
Carbide.
Intelligent and safe networks:
V i s i o n : ”The electric power network are much
safer in the future. Appliances connected to the
network communicate by standard protocols with
and over the network itself before voltage is
applied to the equipment. This means both an
simplification and increased complexity. Load
management have been accepted throughout the
whole network and customers can choose to price
out heavy load if shortage of power is expected.
Motors, and in principle all appliances are
protected by inherent sensors, control and
communication processors, that not only check
\
the component but also its environment.
intelligent processing techniques as well as local
production and storage facilities. The computing
power in control and surveillance are at least a
factor 100.000 more powerful in terms of speed
and memory capacity than we have today. More
optical communication, processing and mass
memory technologies are introduced in the next
century”.
I

Comment: The number of electrically related
accidents have recently started to increase in
Sweden again. From 200 per year in 1990 the
number in 1996 seems to be more than 280. Over
70 % of the accidents are related to 230/400 V
distribution systems. The number of electrically
related fires are more than 5000/year. Information
technology has a potential to significantly reduce
these problems and save a substantial amount of
costs.
Maintenance and operation procedures:
V i s i o n : ”Maintenance of power networks are
achieved through intensive use of large databases,
GPS, satellite communication, mobile, compact,
digital communication systems and image
recognition technologies based on e.g. fuzzy logic
and neural network algorithms. Most new
components have built in self test and diagnostic
functions. Surveillance inspection is based on
actual state rather than timely schedules. By self
adaptive technologies learning functions are
introduced which continuously optimize
performance and control long term objectives.”
C o m m e n t : The information society of
tomorrow utilizes a broad complexity of
communication channels and media. A first step
towards improved communication is now under
development concerning the MVJLV electrical
power networks as channels also for information.
New business concepts:
V i s i o n : ”On a free electricity market the
customer comes into focus different than today.
New relations are established in the future, where
e.g. the energy provider takes full responsibility
not only for the electric power supply, but also
supply of indoor climate, lighting, cooling,
water, gas and any kind of information. New
types of general service providers will
developed, competing with traditional utilities.
6.4.3
One vision, on a free market, is that power
providers, use the common network as transparent
virtual networks, similar to telephone companies
are doing todlay. The responsibility, in terms of,
customer agreements are much more
differentiated. Due to the increasing amount of
local electricity production, users will be much
more involvcd in supply in the future. Trading of
power and energy will take new forms.”
Advanced energy saving technology:
V i s i o n : ”Houses and dwellings are much more
energy efficient in the future. Lighting and sensor
power is distributed in new optical wave-guides,
which at the same time offer communication
capability, thus reducing unnecessary cabling.
Intelligent load management controls appliances
and communication over the network allows
remote diagnostic, downloading of new control
software etc. Information about customers will be
important in the future. Load profiles, customer
behavior, generic load patterns of different
processes etc., will be of great importance in
tailoring new contracts.”
Comment: Industrial savings of energy,
sometimes up to 50 % are not completely
impossible. The enhancement of power quality
for distribution of various end-use qualities are
under strong development.
Enhanced quality of electric power:
Vision: ”In ithe future new process technologies,
based primarily on electricity are developed in
order to olptimally save energy content in
manufacturing. Local production and energy
storage play an important role in this vision.
In the future electric vehicles are becoming more
popular as the environmental concem increases.
be The infrastructure, concerning battery chargers are
therefore developed further and standardized, as
well as communication between vehicles and the
electrical network itself. Through connection with
 6.4.4
the network the on-board computer gives
possibilities to download optimal routings for
e.g. commercial urban and highway traffic.
Based on existing DC/DC switching
technologies, also quite new components are
developed, that switch currents up to hundreds of
kHz and allow energy storage at intermediate
SMES or super capacitor devices, to achieve both
local storage and power smoothing functionality
at distribution and end-use levels. Hybrid storage
systems that acts both as both fuel cells and
batteries are developed and distributed locally in
the electrical power system.”
Comment: Power Quality issues are for the
time beeing one of the hottest topics for many
utilities. Many investigations are now in progress
studying the potential for product developement
of the electricity itself.
A new distribution system topology:
Vision: ”In the future new storage devices gives
the power network another topology. Due to the
progress in electrical storage technology, new
devices have been developed that can handle long
and short time storage of electricity. New High
Temperature Super Conducting Magnetic Storage
devices (SMES) and advanced battery systems
allow smooth operation, with load factors close
to unity. These storage devices are later on further
compacted, thus integrating not only e.g.
cryogenic cooling system, but also its control
based on cryogenic operating semiconductors”.
A future perspective of distributed storage devices
like Superconductive Magnetic storage
Comment: Toady many utilities are under way
describing various concepts, related to load
levelling advanced batteries or kinetic type
flywheel batteries. The latter typically with
superconducting magnets.
The benefit of system changes.
It is very difficult to make precise calculations on
cost/benefit of system changes related to the
visions above. However, some rough estimations
can give an indication on which order of
magnitude changes can achieve.
In Sweden, maintenance and renovation costs
about 3 and 2 billion SEK per year respectively.
Electrical energy losses of 10 TWh amounts to
1.5 billion SEK and cost of accidents/fires related
to electricity about 2 billion SEK per year. If the
visions could be reality, a potential thus exists
for savings up to maybe 4 billion SEK per year.
If we assume that the distribution system
accounts for most injuriedfires and losses, (say
75%), the benefit value would be more than 3
billion SEIUyear in distribution only.
Assuming that new technology never would
compete with existing on f more expensive, we
could for our calculation
costs are equal those of today.
A simple conclusion would be that any
investment into future technology that has a
potential of saving losses, increase flexibility,
reduce maintenance costs and lower accident rates
would pay back in a very short time.
Conclusion
A study concerning the visions of the future
distribution system was performed. Many new
ideas were developed. The Swedish utilities,
together with manufacturers and researchers at
universities are now trying to implement these
visions into long term R&D programs, as well as
into technology demonstration projects.
References
[l] A Sustainable Electricity System for
Sweden. A vision for 2050. ELFORSK 96:9
121 Vision 21 : A technology vision and
Research agenda on T&D for Sweden’s electrical
utilities. ELFORSK 96: 11
[3] ELEKTRA-R&D Program, Sept. 96
[4] ISOLDE- High Performance Outdoor
Insulation R&D Program, ELFORSK Nov. 96