Q 1 A manufacturer of critical components for two wheelers in the automotive sector is

interested in forecasting the trend of demand during the next year as a key input to its annual
planning exercise. Information on the past sales is available for the last three years (see table
below). Extract the trend component of the time series data and use if for predicting the
future demand of the components.
Actual
Period Demand
Year 1: Q1 360
Year 1: Q2 438
Year 1: Q3 359
Year 1: Q4 406
Year 2: Q1 393
Year 2: Q2 465
Year 2: Q3 387
Year 2: Q4 464
Year 3: Q1 505
Year 3: Q2 618
Year 3: Q3 443
Year 3: Q4 540

Q2 A manufacturer of tricycles for children in the age group of two to four years
commissioned a market research firm to understand the factors that influenced the demand
for its product. After some detailed studies, the market research firm concluded that the
demand was a simple linear function of the number of newly married couples in the city.
Based on this assumption, build a causal model for forecasting the demand for the product
using data given in table(given below) collected for residential area in a city. Also estimate
the demand for tricycle if the number of new marriages is 150 and 250.

X Y
New Marriages Demand for Tricyles
200 165
235 184
210 180
197 145
225 190
240 169
217 180
225 170